Video http://youtu.be/6BALaROthMI
Dow Jones 12,756 +1.00%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1746
Oil WTI: 98.41
Copper CFD: 383
US Dollar: 78.90
EURUSD 1.3080
AUDUSD 1.0708
Dow Jones CFD 12,760
S&P500 CFD: 1327
FTSE 100 CFD: 5792
DAX CFD: 6623
SPI CFD 4286
News
U.S. stocks advanced as solid manufacturing reports around the world bolstered investor confidence.
Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1746
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The Midpoint 1750 is the resistance, but now appears will become support in due course, followed by Subgroup1 (SG1) 1710|1720|1730 with the 1772 as the main resistance and of course the (mTL8) 1800 as the target to take profits, then wait for the correction at this MinorLevel then get back in to trade higher
Elliott Wave: The internal wave structure up in creeping but it’s in tact as an impulse wave, it should therefor climb higher, gaining support above 1750 and moving to 1772.
Australian Gold stocks should also continue higher, I was a little concerned with NCM but that should now extend higher. The other stock that we talked about was the large triangle pattern on TRY above the MediumLevel 4.00 which is plodding along nicely as a trend trade with 5.00 as the first target
Silver: and copper have much the same wave pattern. The 34.00 (Fibonacci number) is the resistance that you need as support
Oil WTI: 98.41
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Same - Long with a break above 101 and short under 98.
Elliott Wave: Oil did not follow stock up and is still firmly locked under the 100 and the 99.00 has also developed the first failed retest which is what we were looking for yesterday, the next step if this market is heading lower is the 98.00 / 97.72 as the resistance to add to shorts
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.84+
US Nickel: Last: 9.49+
US Zinc: Last: 0.96+
US Aluminium Last: 1.00+
Copper CFD: 383
Technical Analysis:
Generally speaking, as long as copper stays above the 372 we have a bullish corrective Elliott wave four and we shouldn’t expect too much upside here for a while, this was mentioned when the price first arrived at SG2 this is all normal when markets are working around these price levels and we can see this in other markets like US BHP at 80 which is a MajorLevel, at least while they are vibrating at their levels they are stabilising other markets in general, once they have completed their corrective pattern they will push higher, but the bottom line is to know the price levels to exit, either for a profit or a loss and that’s 365 on the downside and 4.00 on the upside
Forex
All major European shares trade higher today, up more than 1%, in-line with the S&P futures which are showing some sharp gains now back above yesterday’s 1313 high. US dollar is very weak, down almost against all majors, only unchanged against Gbp at the moment but weakest against the Aud; down 0.4%.
US Dollar: 78.90
Technical Analysis:
Dollar making new lows, but the Euro and Indices haven’t just yet so there is a lagging resistance, the dollar has good historical resistance points every 50 points, 79, 78.50 and 78 are good support and resistance price to work from. The SP500 is showing an impulse wave pattern up from 1300, it does need to make a new high above the old high1333 to confirm the impulse wave and if it does which is another three points as today’s high so far is 1330, then by looking at the impulse structure we can look above 1350 to 1372+ and of course this would take the Euro with the SP and the dollar would be lower into the 78 zone, but first things first and the 78,50 is the next level of support once the price retests 79 and develops 79 as the resistance
EURUSD 1.3080
TradingLevels: The 132 is an old high so we are seeing profit taking, plus the trend up from 130 to 132 requires rebalancing, the main support is the 13150 but as always just allow the reaction correction from 132 to unfold out until it gets to a point you can recognise and work with, I find it easier not to get involved in the first swing in a correction, but to observe it and work out what it is, such as three waves or five waves, this narrows down the possibilities of the next larger pattern. If the 13150 cannot hold then the 13130/20 are the next supports
Elliott Wave: The pattern will also be in line with the SP500 and if the DP can make a new high above 1333 then its bullish and so will be the Euro and then you can look for support on the 132 to trade long or if you can work out the corrective pattern under the 132 then you will be able to enter lower
Trading Strategies: The probability is up, the question is the size or the corrective pattern under 132, the supports are 13150 then 13120 either one of these is likely, I just sure, so its best to allow the corrective pattern to unfold to a recognisable pattern and a supporting retested price level to work off, as mentioned watch the SP500 and support on 132 is the safest trade. The other point worth noting is that the AUD made new highs and this market is a great leader of other markets these days
AUDUSD 1.0708
TradingLevels: The price will now work with 107 and when working with large number we also take into consideration the smaller numbers on both sides of the larger number and in this case you will find the group1 above 10710|10720|10730 doing their first job in restraining the price to 107 and the first line of defence the supports group2 below 10680|10672|10665. We should see the price create a corrective pattern across the 107 but with group1 and 2 helping out in holding the pattern. After the corrective then look to trade long
Elliott Wave: The impulse wave up continues to trend in line with base metals and a safe haven
Trading Strategies: Wait for the corrective pattern to unfold in three swings across 107 above and below, then look for support on 107 and 10730 of course you can enter anywhere in the corrective process but you need to know what your looking at, if you don’t know then don’t enter and wait for the largest number to become support via retesting that price then making a new high.
11:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m 2.3% 8.4%
11:30am AUD Trade Balance 1.23B 1.38B
Indices
Patterns are positive to the upside and move is expected, the Dax and AUD are leaders in these patterns by making new highs, the Dow and ASX haven’t made new highs but should in time.
Dow Jones CFD 12,760
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Resistance one is 12,800, second is SG2 12,765|12,772|12,780 with 12,772 being the pivot a trade would need as support for longs in that zone.
Elliott Wave: The pattern appears positive to the upside as a few other markets have made new highs, but technically as it stand the move up from the 12,530 is in three waves i.e. corrective abc rally only when it makes a new high above the 12,840 can we then expect a follow through towards 13,000 (TL13)
Trading Strategies: Day Trading, as you can see the SG2 12,772 zone is holding the price, the support is back at 12,720, the 12,750 is also a support but it doesn’t have the volume support only the psychological support. Any way the price is going to correct to some degree from the 12,772, so just allow it to and when it finds support the look to move in long again. Also the 12,800 is likely to be part of a larger corrective pattern, but the price should stay above the 12,700 if not then this would break the impulse pattern that’s trending up
S&P500 CFD: 1327
TradingLevels: Expect a corrective pattern across the top of SG1 1330 the TradingLevel Classic pattern across this level is highly likely, once this is completed and the 1330 is support trade long to the Midpoint 1350 exit, wait for the corrective pattern and retender, shorter term traders would work the 1340 taking profits into the 1338 (Microlevels)
Elliott Wave: Impulse wave up is underway
Trading Strategies: wait for the Classic Tradinglevels pattern to unfold at 1330 which is essentially the abc Elliott pattern, once 1330 is support scale in long using Micro Group1 1331|1332|1333 if the 1333 the top of group1 finds support then you know your free to go.
FTSE 100 CFD: 5792
TradingLevels: Resistance (mTL8) 5800 Support SG2 5780|5772|5765 this hasn’t been retest as support yet but its likely during the corrective process of the price working through the MinorLevel 5800
Elliott Wave: The Dax was and is the catalyst for the move up above the 6500 (ML65) the Dax making a new highs helps with the wave count for the FSTE and we assume that the FSTE will make a new high here based on the Dax’s new high, that said the move yup in the FSTE is in three wave i.e. corrective abc and therefore it can fail from here like the Dow/ SP500, this is probably not the case but I have to mentioned it. We can expect a corrective pattern at the 5800 with the SG2 as the support
Trading Strategies: The 5800 will cause swings, you have to be careful. The 38.2% retracement level is around the 5750
DAX CFD: 6623
Technical Analysis: expect a corrective pattern across the 6600 the resistance above the current high would be 6650 and the support below the 6600 is 6572 SG2 after a correction higher price are expected in line with the impulse wave up
SPI CFD 4286
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Like the US Indices no new highs here, however the pattern under 4300 is corrective and a break higher should occur, yes the cash market will lift the price higher, but remember the weekly cycle Thursday can gap higher and then fizzle out and trade lower, so be very careful of getting trapped buying the open
Elliott Wave: New highs above 4300 over the next three days
Day Trading: A Move above 4300 then a corrective pattern back down into 4300, Friday and Monday should see the higher prices, so you need to survive any pullback today
11:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m 2.3% 8.4%
11:30am AUD Trade Balance 1.23B 1.38B
Summary
US Indices We are seeing an impulse wave up in all indices, the Dow and SP etc. haven’t made new highs but should based off the Dax and AUD as leading indicators, new highs for the DJ/SP may not occur tonight in the US session but on Friday and Monday, the have employment figures in the next session, the ADP Non-Farm Employment last night were slightly positive so this is the lead for employment figures tonight and the Non-Farm Employment figures on Friday keeping the Job rate at 8.5 i.e. steady. The Dow should eventually find the 12,800 as support and push to 13,000.
Europe The Dax has been the catalyst and leader in moving higher, we can expect US and European markets to rebalance tonight a little before moving higher on Friday and Monday
China Edges higher, the shanghai 2300 top of Minor Group1 is what we are looking at for maintaining the trend higher.
Australia The move down yesterday in the ASX200 will see a rebound today, the element to look for in the move up is the volume and compare that amount of volume to the move down yesterday. The levels it is the same story we need the 4300 as support for the run to 4500 target.
The Weekly bullish cycle for Thursday, is seeing the market open higher, then trade lower during the day on lower volume and then seeing the buying volume move back in possibly on Thursday but more so on the Friday morning and looking for the strong Friday close and the follow through on the Monday
Trading Quote
The ability to change one’s mind is probably a key characteristic of successful traders. Dogmatic and rigid personalities rarely succeed in markets. The markets are a dynamic process and sustained trading success requires the ability to modify and even change strategies as markets evolve. Successful traders have the ability to adapt to the changing dynamics of the market and in the process maintain their consistency of performance. - GILL BLAKE
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
Thursday, February 2, 2012
8:45am NZD Employment Change q/q 0.2%
8:45am NZD Unemployment Rate 6.6%
10:50am JPY Monetary Base y/y 14.6% 13.5%
11:00am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -0.8%
11:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m 2.3% 8.4%
11:30am AUD Trade Balance 1.23B 1.38B
6:00pm CHF Trade Balance 2.85B 2.95B
8:30pm GBP Construction PMI 53.0 53.2
9:00pm EUR PPI m/m -0.1% 0.2%
11:30pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 30.6%
12:30am USD Unemployment Claims 371K 377K
12:30am USD Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q 1.1% 2.3%
12:30am USD Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q 0.9% -2.5%
2:00am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
2:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -192B
Australian Corporate Calendar
Ceramic Fuel Cells Ltd Trading statement
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
Friday, 3 February 2012
Wednesday, 1 February 2012
Technical Analysis
Video: http://youtu.be/1cuxCJ_pEsU
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Description:
TradingLounge’s Peter Mathers Technical Analyst outlines Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies using the Tradinglevels Pattern Recognition Elliott Wave as Trading Education.
This Day Trading report is only the lead in for the actual mechanical Robo Day Trading for the Australia, US and UK Markets, Forex Elliott Wave Technical Analysis is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
Technical Analysis TAGS
Technical Analysis, CFD Trading Analysis, Forex Trading Analysis, Share Trading Analysis, Trading Analyst, Technical Analyst, Market Analyst, Share Trading Analyst, Forex Trading Analyst, Stock Market Analyst, TradingLounge, Peter Mathers, Technical Analysis Education, Trading Levels Analysis, TradingLevels
News
Stocks slid, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lower for a third day, Treasuries rose and the euro weakened as Greece tangled with European officials over terms of a second rescue package. Italy’s bonds slid and costs to insure Portugal’s debt rose to a record.
Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1732
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Subgroup1 (SG1) 1710|1720|1730 if the price finds support on top of SG1 1730 then expect the price at 1750, if the 1720 (pivot) becomes resistance expect the price back at 1700
Elliott Wave: The bullish count, a pullback to 1700 then up. The bearish count, a top in place
Silver: Same as gold, with the bullish and bearish count, this is also the same for US Indices, we expected a selloff we can’t confirm if the selloff is a change in trend or a correction
Oil WTI: 99.10
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Long with a break above 101 and short under 98.
Elliott Wave: The pattern we have been tracking is still working its self into a corner and will make a break this week either way. The last move down from 101 to the current low can be an abc correction, so any move up of this low try and work out if it’s impulsive (five waves) but the long trade is safest above 100 and the short trade is the 98 as the retested resistance. the wave count should now line up with US Indices
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.82-
US Nickel: Last: 9.63-
US Zinc: Last: 0.95-
US Aluminium Last: 1.00+
Copper CFD: 380
Technical Analysis:
The trend up is seeing its first and expected weakness under 400 (ML4) it can come back to 372 as a wave four and wave fours can get complicated, so we should expect more than three swings, we are only seeing the first down now.
Forex
Question of the week: Will Eur and Gbp be a good sell this week, or Cad and Aud a good buy?
Hard to say right now, but it’s interesting how the price action unfolded through recent weeks and days. Both, cable and Euro could be topping out soon, as first impulsive wave (A) of II is looking for a low on dollar index. Well, on the other-hand Aussie and Cad are showing only three waves of retrace from recent extremes, so this pull-back could easily be part of a larger trend (lower USD).
US Dollar: 79.30
Technical Analysis:
As you know we have been tracking the Wave A (of an ABC correction) down, this Wave A has five smaller waves and the current bounce off 79 may be the end of the Wave A down, if this is the case then 80 will be retested. The bounce off 79.00 would be at minimum a small abc rally in three waves. Finding support on top of SG1 7930 is the key for any upside to SG2 7972|7980.
The Euro is doing the opposite and in line with SP500
EURUSD 1.3127
TradingLevels: A larger corrective patter is emerging across 130
Elliott Wave: The Wave A up is looking completed and the Wave B down is underway
Trading Strategies: Expect a bounce of 131 as it retests 132. Support on 13130 (Group1) would create short term longs to the Midpoint 13150 where the supply is, so exit, if the Midpoint becomes support then go long off that to SG2 13172.
AUDUSD 1.0580
TradingLevels: The price is working with 106. IF support is found back above 106 then you can think long and scale in above the 106 through the SG1 (10610|10620|10630) if the price can develop support on top of SG1 the 10630 then the price can lift higher
Elliott Wave: The pattern coming down across 106 can be the ABC corrective pattern but if this is the case it must now trade above 106. The Flip side is it takes out the last low around the 10530 then the price will get trapped into 105 creating a much bigger corrective pattern
Trading Strategies: Long above 106 with targets above the 107 in five waves up.
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,576
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: While the price is above 12,500 the market is supported, when a price reacts from 12,800 then 12,500 is the first support, its simply working with the Fibonacci ratio 1,2,3,5,8 so we can say if the second strongest number 5 cannot support the price then its back to 3 and if its back to 3 then it’s a part of Group1 and a part of the closest largest number and that is 12,000 but as far as the levels are concerned that would be the MediumLevel 11,500 (ML15) so the 12500 is stopping the price dropping to 11,500
Elliott Wave: The move down appears in nature to be impulsive, with its sharp move and thus creating the top.
But also technically it can still be a corrective move too and ABC pullback. That is why I mentioned the support at 12500 last time, the 12500 as resistance certainly puts a dent into the trend up.
Trading Strategies: Day Trading - Long if 12,600 finds support.
S&P500 CFD: 1307
TradingLevels: Larger pattern unfolding into 1300
Elliott Wave: We have to follow two wave counts, one is a top is in place and the market will roll over down and the other is a larger corrective pattern across 1300 (and below) in three waves ABC and then move up making new highs
Trading Strategies: Its normal to see buyers sitting on 1300 and creating a bounce that will hit supply/sellers in the 1310 – 1320 range with the sellers probably wining and seeing the price back and below 1300, the 1290 is the 38.2% retracement level so expect the price to bounce around between the 1290 and the 1300, the price also test lower to 1280 the first level of SG2
FTSE 100 CFD: 5670
TradingLevels: 5650 (65) support resistance 5700 then 5720 supply
Elliott Wave: The FSTE has displayed the most weakness in the move down, as its move the furthest, passing the wave four of one lesser degree at 5700. So there is more evidence here for a top being in place and therefore we should follow a more bearish count, the impulse wave . but technically counting the structure down it can be and abc, with the current low in at 5650, we just have to wait and see for more development, but this is a good reflection of the Euro talks on debt.
Trading Strategies: Expect a retest of 5700 from 5650. IF the 5700 cannot find support then look for a short there, if support is found then scale in long
DAX CFD: 6462
Technical Analysis: Same, Give the price a few sessions at 6500 MediumLevel, lets simply see if this level develops support or as resistance. The real support is still at 6400, so above this the Dax is positive below negative
SPI CFD 4264
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: 4300 is the top of MinorGroup1, the resistance. The price has reached 4300 the other day and its normal for it to react, the reaction has found support at the first volume demand level at 4230 SG1 and will now retest supply starting at SG2 4265|4272|4280 it’s the 4272 as support of resistance that a trader can work from
Elliott Wave: Can take the price to 4500, that’s if the US Indices are only correcting a small correction and the Dow stays above 12500 and the Shanghai builds above the 2300 (group1) support. And of course the price needs to find support on the 4300 to create a long trade to 4500 where it is then expected to roll over down
Day Trading: Use 4272 or the Midpoint 4250 as support or resistance, be on the right side of these sublevels. Basically you have to work SG2 4265|4272|4280 with 4272 being the important pivot as support or resistance, being long with 4272 as support is much safer than being long under it.
Summary
US Indices The moves are governed by the European mess.
I don’t know if the current moves down are just bullish corrective or the start of the bear market for the US and Euro zone. The patterns are still too small to offer evidence. The 12500 on the Dow is the short term support floor. The SP500 will see at least a corrective pattern, but the question is will the price end up having the 1300 as support or resistance, this can take all week to develop, its simply a guessing game as I can see both counts bullish and bearish, but cannot give a clear answer, so we simply should wait until we are sure and then trade that direction.
Europe It appears the officials are debating the bond debt yields, this would be expected negations as the ECB would only want to give closer to 3 where the buyers would want closer to 4, the outcome of this discussion should see a bounce, but as you know the Greece problem is only 2.5% of the Euro output, but a blue print for Portugal, Spain, Italy..
The pattern across the MediumLevel 6500 for the Dax is unfolding and as long as it stays above the support 6400 then the Dax is positive. Their neighbours the Britt’s, don’t seem as confident as the FSTE traded sharply lower than other markets presenting a more bearish impulse wave.
China The Shanghai, 2300 as support is all we need to know about, the more this can develop as support the more positive Asia in general is.
Australia The Shanghai support 2300 is critical and the 4300 as support for the ASX200 is the next positive step to watch for, IF this is found then the 4500 is the target. The base metals that have been part of the driver has met supply just under 400 and is having its correction, I think its just a correction and that the price will push higher, this can be seen in the US BHP at 80 (TL8) so Australia can expect corrective consolidations before another push higher. I did place out short trades in the ASX Robo to hedge this corrective situation
Trading Quote
Most of the time common stocks are subject to irrational and excessive price fluctuations in both directions as the consequence of the ingrained tendency of most people to speculate or gamble... to give way to hope, fear and greed. Benjamin Graham
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
8:45am NZD Building Consents m/m -6.4%
10:15am JPY Manufacturing PMI 50.2
10:30am JPY Household Spending y/y -0.1% -3.2%
10:30am JPY Unemployment Rate 4.5% 4.5%
10:50am JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m 2.6% -2.7%
11:01am GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -31 -33
11:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 2
11:30am AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.4% 0.3%
|4:00pm JPY Housing Starts y/y -1.4% -0.3%
6:00pm CHF UBS Consumption Indicator 0.81
6:00pm EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.9% -1.0%
6:45pm EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.3% -0.1%
7:55pm EUR German Unemployment Change -8K -22K
8:00pm EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 8.6% 8.6%
8:30pm GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 1.2B 1.0B
8:30pm GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.3% -0.6%
8:30pm GBP Mortgage Approvals 53K 53K
9:00pm EUR Unemployment Rate 10.4% 10.3%
12:30am CAD GDP m/m 0.2% 0.0%
12:30am CAD RMPI m/m 0.2% 3.8%
12:30am CAD IPPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
12:30am USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.4% 0.3%
1:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y -3.2% -3.4%
1:45am USD Chicago PMI 63.2 62.5
2:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence 68.4 64.5
Australian Corporate Calendar
Panoramic Resources Limited (PAN.AU) December Quarterly Report
Cudeco Limited (CDU.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Bathurst Resources Limited (BTU.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Dart Energy Limited (DEGEF) Quarterly Activities Report
Rex Minerals Limited (RXM.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Integra Mining Limited (IGR.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Ramelius Resources Limited December Quarterly Activities Report
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif
Description:
TradingLounge’s Peter Mathers Technical Analyst outlines Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies using the Tradinglevels Pattern Recognition Elliott Wave as Trading Education.
This Day Trading report is only the lead in for the actual mechanical Robo Day Trading for the Australia, US and UK Markets, Forex Elliott Wave Technical Analysis is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
Technical Analysis TAGS
Technical Analysis, CFD Trading Analysis, Forex Trading Analysis, Share Trading Analysis, Trading Analyst, Technical Analyst, Market Analyst, Share Trading Analyst, Forex Trading Analyst, Stock Market Analyst, TradingLounge, Peter Mathers, Technical Analysis Education, Trading Levels Analysis, TradingLevels
News
Stocks slid, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lower for a third day, Treasuries rose and the euro weakened as Greece tangled with European officials over terms of a second rescue package. Italy’s bonds slid and costs to insure Portugal’s debt rose to a record.
Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1732
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Subgroup1 (SG1) 1710|1720|1730 if the price finds support on top of SG1 1730 then expect the price at 1750, if the 1720 (pivot) becomes resistance expect the price back at 1700
Elliott Wave: The bullish count, a pullback to 1700 then up. The bearish count, a top in place
Silver: Same as gold, with the bullish and bearish count, this is also the same for US Indices, we expected a selloff we can’t confirm if the selloff is a change in trend or a correction
Oil WTI: 99.10
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Long with a break above 101 and short under 98.
Elliott Wave: The pattern we have been tracking is still working its self into a corner and will make a break this week either way. The last move down from 101 to the current low can be an abc correction, so any move up of this low try and work out if it’s impulsive (five waves) but the long trade is safest above 100 and the short trade is the 98 as the retested resistance. the wave count should now line up with US Indices
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.82-
US Nickel: Last: 9.63-
US Zinc: Last: 0.95-
US Aluminium Last: 1.00+
Copper CFD: 380
Technical Analysis:
The trend up is seeing its first and expected weakness under 400 (ML4) it can come back to 372 as a wave four and wave fours can get complicated, so we should expect more than three swings, we are only seeing the first down now.
Forex
Question of the week: Will Eur and Gbp be a good sell this week, or Cad and Aud a good buy?
Hard to say right now, but it’s interesting how the price action unfolded through recent weeks and days. Both, cable and Euro could be topping out soon, as first impulsive wave (A) of II is looking for a low on dollar index. Well, on the other-hand Aussie and Cad are showing only three waves of retrace from recent extremes, so this pull-back could easily be part of a larger trend (lower USD).
US Dollar: 79.30
Technical Analysis:
As you know we have been tracking the Wave A (of an ABC correction) down, this Wave A has five smaller waves and the current bounce off 79 may be the end of the Wave A down, if this is the case then 80 will be retested. The bounce off 79.00 would be at minimum a small abc rally in three waves. Finding support on top of SG1 7930 is the key for any upside to SG2 7972|7980.
The Euro is doing the opposite and in line with SP500
EURUSD 1.3127
TradingLevels: A larger corrective patter is emerging across 130
Elliott Wave: The Wave A up is looking completed and the Wave B down is underway
Trading Strategies: Expect a bounce of 131 as it retests 132. Support on 13130 (Group1) would create short term longs to the Midpoint 13150 where the supply is, so exit, if the Midpoint becomes support then go long off that to SG2 13172.
AUDUSD 1.0580
TradingLevels: The price is working with 106. IF support is found back above 106 then you can think long and scale in above the 106 through the SG1 (10610|10620|10630) if the price can develop support on top of SG1 the 10630 then the price can lift higher
Elliott Wave: The pattern coming down across 106 can be the ABC corrective pattern but if this is the case it must now trade above 106. The Flip side is it takes out the last low around the 10530 then the price will get trapped into 105 creating a much bigger corrective pattern
Trading Strategies: Long above 106 with targets above the 107 in five waves up.
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,576
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: While the price is above 12,500 the market is supported, when a price reacts from 12,800 then 12,500 is the first support, its simply working with the Fibonacci ratio 1,2,3,5,8 so we can say if the second strongest number 5 cannot support the price then its back to 3 and if its back to 3 then it’s a part of Group1 and a part of the closest largest number and that is 12,000 but as far as the levels are concerned that would be the MediumLevel 11,500 (ML15) so the 12500 is stopping the price dropping to 11,500
Elliott Wave: The move down appears in nature to be impulsive, with its sharp move and thus creating the top.
But also technically it can still be a corrective move too and ABC pullback. That is why I mentioned the support at 12500 last time, the 12500 as resistance certainly puts a dent into the trend up.
Trading Strategies: Day Trading - Long if 12,600 finds support.
S&P500 CFD: 1307
TradingLevels: Larger pattern unfolding into 1300
Elliott Wave: We have to follow two wave counts, one is a top is in place and the market will roll over down and the other is a larger corrective pattern across 1300 (and below) in three waves ABC and then move up making new highs
Trading Strategies: Its normal to see buyers sitting on 1300 and creating a bounce that will hit supply/sellers in the 1310 – 1320 range with the sellers probably wining and seeing the price back and below 1300, the 1290 is the 38.2% retracement level so expect the price to bounce around between the 1290 and the 1300, the price also test lower to 1280 the first level of SG2
FTSE 100 CFD: 5670
TradingLevels: 5650 (65) support resistance 5700 then 5720 supply
Elliott Wave: The FSTE has displayed the most weakness in the move down, as its move the furthest, passing the wave four of one lesser degree at 5700. So there is more evidence here for a top being in place and therefore we should follow a more bearish count, the impulse wave . but technically counting the structure down it can be and abc, with the current low in at 5650, we just have to wait and see for more development, but this is a good reflection of the Euro talks on debt.
Trading Strategies: Expect a retest of 5700 from 5650. IF the 5700 cannot find support then look for a short there, if support is found then scale in long
DAX CFD: 6462
Technical Analysis: Same, Give the price a few sessions at 6500 MediumLevel, lets simply see if this level develops support or as resistance. The real support is still at 6400, so above this the Dax is positive below negative
SPI CFD 4264
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: 4300 is the top of MinorGroup1, the resistance. The price has reached 4300 the other day and its normal for it to react, the reaction has found support at the first volume demand level at 4230 SG1 and will now retest supply starting at SG2 4265|4272|4280 it’s the 4272 as support of resistance that a trader can work from
Elliott Wave: Can take the price to 4500, that’s if the US Indices are only correcting a small correction and the Dow stays above 12500 and the Shanghai builds above the 2300 (group1) support. And of course the price needs to find support on the 4300 to create a long trade to 4500 where it is then expected to roll over down
Day Trading: Use 4272 or the Midpoint 4250 as support or resistance, be on the right side of these sublevels. Basically you have to work SG2 4265|4272|4280 with 4272 being the important pivot as support or resistance, being long with 4272 as support is much safer than being long under it.
Summary
US Indices The moves are governed by the European mess.
I don’t know if the current moves down are just bullish corrective or the start of the bear market for the US and Euro zone. The patterns are still too small to offer evidence. The 12500 on the Dow is the short term support floor. The SP500 will see at least a corrective pattern, but the question is will the price end up having the 1300 as support or resistance, this can take all week to develop, its simply a guessing game as I can see both counts bullish and bearish, but cannot give a clear answer, so we simply should wait until we are sure and then trade that direction.
Europe It appears the officials are debating the bond debt yields, this would be expected negations as the ECB would only want to give closer to 3 where the buyers would want closer to 4, the outcome of this discussion should see a bounce, but as you know the Greece problem is only 2.5% of the Euro output, but a blue print for Portugal, Spain, Italy..
The pattern across the MediumLevel 6500 for the Dax is unfolding and as long as it stays above the support 6400 then the Dax is positive. Their neighbours the Britt’s, don’t seem as confident as the FSTE traded sharply lower than other markets presenting a more bearish impulse wave.
China The Shanghai, 2300 as support is all we need to know about, the more this can develop as support the more positive Asia in general is.
Australia The Shanghai support 2300 is critical and the 4300 as support for the ASX200 is the next positive step to watch for, IF this is found then the 4500 is the target. The base metals that have been part of the driver has met supply just under 400 and is having its correction, I think its just a correction and that the price will push higher, this can be seen in the US BHP at 80 (TL8) so Australia can expect corrective consolidations before another push higher. I did place out short trades in the ASX Robo to hedge this corrective situation
Trading Quote
Most of the time common stocks are subject to irrational and excessive price fluctuations in both directions as the consequence of the ingrained tendency of most people to speculate or gamble... to give way to hope, fear and greed. Benjamin Graham
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
8:45am NZD Building Consents m/m -6.4%
10:15am JPY Manufacturing PMI 50.2
10:30am JPY Household Spending y/y -0.1% -3.2%
10:30am JPY Unemployment Rate 4.5% 4.5%
10:50am JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m 2.6% -2.7%
11:01am GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -31 -33
11:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 2
11:30am AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.4% 0.3%
|4:00pm JPY Housing Starts y/y -1.4% -0.3%
6:00pm CHF UBS Consumption Indicator 0.81
6:00pm EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.9% -1.0%
6:45pm EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.3% -0.1%
7:55pm EUR German Unemployment Change -8K -22K
8:00pm EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 8.6% 8.6%
8:30pm GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 1.2B 1.0B
8:30pm GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.3% -0.6%
8:30pm GBP Mortgage Approvals 53K 53K
9:00pm EUR Unemployment Rate 10.4% 10.3%
12:30am CAD GDP m/m 0.2% 0.0%
12:30am CAD RMPI m/m 0.2% 3.8%
12:30am CAD IPPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
12:30am USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.4% 0.3%
1:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y -3.2% -3.4%
1:45am USD Chicago PMI 63.2 62.5
2:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence 68.4 64.5
Australian Corporate Calendar
Panoramic Resources Limited (PAN.AU) December Quarterly Report
Cudeco Limited (CDU.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Bathurst Resources Limited (BTU.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Dart Energy Limited (DEGEF) Quarterly Activities Report
Rex Minerals Limited (RXM.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Integra Mining Limited (IGR.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Ramelius Resources Limited December Quarterly Activities Report
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
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