Video http://youtu.be/6BALaROthMI
Dow Jones 12,756 +1.00%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1746
Oil WTI: 98.41
Copper CFD: 383
US Dollar: 78.90
EURUSD 1.3080
AUDUSD 1.0708
Dow Jones CFD 12,760
S&P500 CFD: 1327
FTSE 100 CFD: 5792
DAX CFD: 6623
SPI CFD 4286
News
U.S. stocks advanced as solid manufacturing reports around the world bolstered investor confidence.
Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1746
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The Midpoint 1750 is the resistance, but now appears will become support in due course, followed by Subgroup1 (SG1) 1710|1720|1730 with the 1772 as the main resistance and of course the (mTL8) 1800 as the target to take profits, then wait for the correction at this MinorLevel then get back in to trade higher
Elliott Wave: The internal wave structure up in creeping but it’s in tact as an impulse wave, it should therefor climb higher, gaining support above 1750 and moving to 1772.
Australian Gold stocks should also continue higher, I was a little concerned with NCM but that should now extend higher. The other stock that we talked about was the large triangle pattern on TRY above the MediumLevel 4.00 which is plodding along nicely as a trend trade with 5.00 as the first target
Silver: and copper have much the same wave pattern. The 34.00 (Fibonacci number) is the resistance that you need as support
Oil WTI: 98.41
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Same - Long with a break above 101 and short under 98.
Elliott Wave: Oil did not follow stock up and is still firmly locked under the 100 and the 99.00 has also developed the first failed retest which is what we were looking for yesterday, the next step if this market is heading lower is the 98.00 / 97.72 as the resistance to add to shorts
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.84+
US Nickel: Last: 9.49+
US Zinc: Last: 0.96+
US Aluminium Last: 1.00+
Copper CFD: 383
Technical Analysis:
Generally speaking, as long as copper stays above the 372 we have a bullish corrective Elliott wave four and we shouldn’t expect too much upside here for a while, this was mentioned when the price first arrived at SG2 this is all normal when markets are working around these price levels and we can see this in other markets like US BHP at 80 which is a MajorLevel, at least while they are vibrating at their levels they are stabilising other markets in general, once they have completed their corrective pattern they will push higher, but the bottom line is to know the price levels to exit, either for a profit or a loss and that’s 365 on the downside and 4.00 on the upside
Forex
All major European shares trade higher today, up more than 1%, in-line with the S&P futures which are showing some sharp gains now back above yesterday’s 1313 high. US dollar is very weak, down almost against all majors, only unchanged against Gbp at the moment but weakest against the Aud; down 0.4%.
US Dollar: 78.90
Technical Analysis:
Dollar making new lows, but the Euro and Indices haven’t just yet so there is a lagging resistance, the dollar has good historical resistance points every 50 points, 79, 78.50 and 78 are good support and resistance price to work from. The SP500 is showing an impulse wave pattern up from 1300, it does need to make a new high above the old high1333 to confirm the impulse wave and if it does which is another three points as today’s high so far is 1330, then by looking at the impulse structure we can look above 1350 to 1372+ and of course this would take the Euro with the SP and the dollar would be lower into the 78 zone, but first things first and the 78,50 is the next level of support once the price retests 79 and develops 79 as the resistance
EURUSD 1.3080
TradingLevels: The 132 is an old high so we are seeing profit taking, plus the trend up from 130 to 132 requires rebalancing, the main support is the 13150 but as always just allow the reaction correction from 132 to unfold out until it gets to a point you can recognise and work with, I find it easier not to get involved in the first swing in a correction, but to observe it and work out what it is, such as three waves or five waves, this narrows down the possibilities of the next larger pattern. If the 13150 cannot hold then the 13130/20 are the next supports
Elliott Wave: The pattern will also be in line with the SP500 and if the DP can make a new high above 1333 then its bullish and so will be the Euro and then you can look for support on the 132 to trade long or if you can work out the corrective pattern under the 132 then you will be able to enter lower
Trading Strategies: The probability is up, the question is the size or the corrective pattern under 132, the supports are 13150 then 13120 either one of these is likely, I just sure, so its best to allow the corrective pattern to unfold to a recognisable pattern and a supporting retested price level to work off, as mentioned watch the SP500 and support on 132 is the safest trade. The other point worth noting is that the AUD made new highs and this market is a great leader of other markets these days
AUDUSD 1.0708
TradingLevels: The price will now work with 107 and when working with large number we also take into consideration the smaller numbers on both sides of the larger number and in this case you will find the group1 above 10710|10720|10730 doing their first job in restraining the price to 107 and the first line of defence the supports group2 below 10680|10672|10665. We should see the price create a corrective pattern across the 107 but with group1 and 2 helping out in holding the pattern. After the corrective then look to trade long
Elliott Wave: The impulse wave up continues to trend in line with base metals and a safe haven
Trading Strategies: Wait for the corrective pattern to unfold in three swings across 107 above and below, then look for support on 107 and 10730 of course you can enter anywhere in the corrective process but you need to know what your looking at, if you don’t know then don’t enter and wait for the largest number to become support via retesting that price then making a new high.
11:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m 2.3% 8.4%
11:30am AUD Trade Balance 1.23B 1.38B
Indices
Patterns are positive to the upside and move is expected, the Dax and AUD are leaders in these patterns by making new highs, the Dow and ASX haven’t made new highs but should in time.
Dow Jones CFD 12,760
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Resistance one is 12,800, second is SG2 12,765|12,772|12,780 with 12,772 being the pivot a trade would need as support for longs in that zone.
Elliott Wave: The pattern appears positive to the upside as a few other markets have made new highs, but technically as it stand the move up from the 12,530 is in three waves i.e. corrective abc rally only when it makes a new high above the 12,840 can we then expect a follow through towards 13,000 (TL13)
Trading Strategies: Day Trading, as you can see the SG2 12,772 zone is holding the price, the support is back at 12,720, the 12,750 is also a support but it doesn’t have the volume support only the psychological support. Any way the price is going to correct to some degree from the 12,772, so just allow it to and when it finds support the look to move in long again. Also the 12,800 is likely to be part of a larger corrective pattern, but the price should stay above the 12,700 if not then this would break the impulse pattern that’s trending up
S&P500 CFD: 1327
TradingLevels: Expect a corrective pattern across the top of SG1 1330 the TradingLevel Classic pattern across this level is highly likely, once this is completed and the 1330 is support trade long to the Midpoint 1350 exit, wait for the corrective pattern and retender, shorter term traders would work the 1340 taking profits into the 1338 (Microlevels)
Elliott Wave: Impulse wave up is underway
Trading Strategies: wait for the Classic Tradinglevels pattern to unfold at 1330 which is essentially the abc Elliott pattern, once 1330 is support scale in long using Micro Group1 1331|1332|1333 if the 1333 the top of group1 finds support then you know your free to go.
FTSE 100 CFD: 5792
TradingLevels: Resistance (mTL8) 5800 Support SG2 5780|5772|5765 this hasn’t been retest as support yet but its likely during the corrective process of the price working through the MinorLevel 5800
Elliott Wave: The Dax was and is the catalyst for the move up above the 6500 (ML65) the Dax making a new highs helps with the wave count for the FSTE and we assume that the FSTE will make a new high here based on the Dax’s new high, that said the move yup in the FSTE is in three wave i.e. corrective abc and therefore it can fail from here like the Dow/ SP500, this is probably not the case but I have to mentioned it. We can expect a corrective pattern at the 5800 with the SG2 as the support
Trading Strategies: The 5800 will cause swings, you have to be careful. The 38.2% retracement level is around the 5750
DAX CFD: 6623
Technical Analysis: expect a corrective pattern across the 6600 the resistance above the current high would be 6650 and the support below the 6600 is 6572 SG2 after a correction higher price are expected in line with the impulse wave up
SPI CFD 4286
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Like the US Indices no new highs here, however the pattern under 4300 is corrective and a break higher should occur, yes the cash market will lift the price higher, but remember the weekly cycle Thursday can gap higher and then fizzle out and trade lower, so be very careful of getting trapped buying the open
Elliott Wave: New highs above 4300 over the next three days
Day Trading: A Move above 4300 then a corrective pattern back down into 4300, Friday and Monday should see the higher prices, so you need to survive any pullback today
11:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m 2.3% 8.4%
11:30am AUD Trade Balance 1.23B 1.38B
Summary
US Indices We are seeing an impulse wave up in all indices, the Dow and SP etc. haven’t made new highs but should based off the Dax and AUD as leading indicators, new highs for the DJ/SP may not occur tonight in the US session but on Friday and Monday, the have employment figures in the next session, the ADP Non-Farm Employment last night were slightly positive so this is the lead for employment figures tonight and the Non-Farm Employment figures on Friday keeping the Job rate at 8.5 i.e. steady. The Dow should eventually find the 12,800 as support and push to 13,000.
Europe The Dax has been the catalyst and leader in moving higher, we can expect US and European markets to rebalance tonight a little before moving higher on Friday and Monday
China Edges higher, the shanghai 2300 top of Minor Group1 is what we are looking at for maintaining the trend higher.
Australia The move down yesterday in the ASX200 will see a rebound today, the element to look for in the move up is the volume and compare that amount of volume to the move down yesterday. The levels it is the same story we need the 4300 as support for the run to 4500 target.
The Weekly bullish cycle for Thursday, is seeing the market open higher, then trade lower during the day on lower volume and then seeing the buying volume move back in possibly on Thursday but more so on the Friday morning and looking for the strong Friday close and the follow through on the Monday
Trading Quote
The ability to change one’s mind is probably a key characteristic of successful traders. Dogmatic and rigid personalities rarely succeed in markets. The markets are a dynamic process and sustained trading success requires the ability to modify and even change strategies as markets evolve. Successful traders have the ability to adapt to the changing dynamics of the market and in the process maintain their consistency of performance. - GILL BLAKE
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
Thursday, February 2, 2012
8:45am NZD Employment Change q/q 0.2%
8:45am NZD Unemployment Rate 6.6%
10:50am JPY Monetary Base y/y 14.6% 13.5%
11:00am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -0.8%
11:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m 2.3% 8.4%
11:30am AUD Trade Balance 1.23B 1.38B
6:00pm CHF Trade Balance 2.85B 2.95B
8:30pm GBP Construction PMI 53.0 53.2
9:00pm EUR PPI m/m -0.1% 0.2%
11:30pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 30.6%
12:30am USD Unemployment Claims 371K 377K
12:30am USD Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q 1.1% 2.3%
12:30am USD Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q 0.9% -2.5%
2:00am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
2:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -192B
Australian Corporate Calendar
Ceramic Fuel Cells Ltd Trading statement
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
Showing posts with label Trading Strategies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trading Strategies. Show all posts
Friday, 3 February 2012
Thursday, 19 January 2012
Trading Strategies
To Watch Video on Trading Strategies Visit Us on Youtube http://youtu.be/aB337_YoZ-U
Trading Strategies
US Gold CFD: 1659
Day Trading
TradingLevels: The support on the MediumLevel is developing and a move to 1672 is likely, the resistances are still Subgroup2 SG2 1665|1672|1680
Elliott wave: There is a case for a ending diagonal triangle developing in the trend, however we must take into consideration that the price is simply being skew by the MediumLevel.
Local stock NCM has developed a small impulse wave (five waves) up off 30.00 (TL3) as support, TRY has a large triangle pattern above 4.00 MediumLevel
Silver: Has good support on 30.00, stops either under 30 or under the SG2 2972 (eg 2963) The 61.8% retracement level is 3200 and probable target, however you’re in Minor Group1 so you know the 31.00 is the first resistance, you can also use the sublevels if your trading shorter time frames.
Oil WTI: 100
Day Trading:
TradingLevels: The second retest is underway and the move down testing 100 require time to unfold, we need to see if it’s corrective or impulse, if corrective the price should stay above 99 the 618% retracement level, so basically it just a matter of observing the unfolding price pattern around the 100 to see if it becomes the support or resistance and then take the trade long or short from there once you can see it.
Elliott wave: The wave count on our chart has the move up from 98 to 102 as a wave two rally; however the pattern going up looks more like an impulse wave, this is why it’s important to just allow time for the current retesting price on the 100 play out. The US Indices will also have a guiding hand in Oil direction so the wave count for the SP500 should be observed too and just to add a little more the base metals tend to support Oil as well and they are looking positive as we can see in the US BHP
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.73+
US Nickel: Last: 8.81-
US Zinc: Last: 0.90+
US Aluminium Last: 0.97-
Copper CFD: 374
Technical Analysis
Copper continues its line up nicely in a wave three, its tussling with the 372 (SG2) as would be expected and looking at the waves in the structure up the perspective would see the prices at 400 the MediumLevel which of course is great for our long trades in the Materials sector and the AUD
Forex
US Dollar: 80.50
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: It appears from the impulse wave down we are going to see a larger corrective pattern at 80.00 TL8 Major TradingLevel
Elliott Wave: The move down from 82 is an impulse wave (five waves) so once its completed expect a abc rally then another five wave down to 80…
EURUSD 1.2850
TradingLevels: The old high is SG2 12872 zone is also the resistance again, because of the five waves up from the last low 12625 area, the US Dollar also has five waves down
Elliott wave: The Impulse wave up from 12625 last low can be Wave C of 4 or a new positive uptrend is starting, so the five waves up can be a Wave 1 if this is correct then expect and abc correction down into the 128 and lower before moving up, if the top is a Wave C of 4 then we will see an Impulse wave down making new lows under the 1.26
Day Trading: allow the current high to pull back into the 128 let’s see if it’s a abc or impulse pattern, then we will know the next trend direction, I would expect it to run up on the back of the next ECB meeting
Strategy, the trend is moving up, so trade the sublevels up, support on 1.2850 is the next step, if support is found then take part profit at 12865 and the rest at 12872, if the 12872 becomes support move back in and add on 12880 support trade to 129 exit
AUDUSD 1.04
TradingLevels: The price is still developing supports, the current support is in SG2 the 10372 zone however you need the 104 as support, there should be another push higher to 10472 area a new high at least
Elliott wave: The wave four on 104 is very messy, be patient and wait for definite support on 104
Day Trading: when 104 support is in place scale in and build the position through SG1 of 104 take at least 50% profit at the Midpoint then wait for support and then exit at 10472
The flipside if the price finds resistance at 10372 then the wave count is wrong.
Indices
"We are still waiting on potential reversal lower on S&P". And if we take a look once again on the 4h chart, we can see that the upward move is just awful, full of overlaps within parallel trend lines. Clearly, a recovery is running out of strength, so we must be prepared for potential bearish reversal but before that occurs; prices can still test higher resistance.
Dow Jones CFD 12,550
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: prices are edging higher in the impulse wave up and a new high should be made. The price now needs to stay above the 12400 otherwise the bias would change from positive to negative and sure there are prices above the 12400 that can create a negative bias but the 12400 is the main one as it’s the 618% retracement level of the impulse wave up from 12300, I have taken the 618 from the 12600 allowing for a new high to complete the structure
Elliott wave: The impulse wave that we have been observing from the 12300 is now in its fifth wave, so we can expect weakness from any new high under the 12600 such as SG2 12572|12580
Day Trading: Allow a session for wave four to complete and then find support back above 12500 for a the next long trade
S&P500 CFD: 1305
TradingLevels: The price is back above 1300 this is a positive, however its still only part of the dance across the floor 1300, expect he first sublevel of SG1 1310 to be the resistance which will look to retest 1300 checking for support?
Elliott Wave: The four chart shows the ending triangle, on the flip side the top of group1 can cause this type of resistance, so just keep this in mind and also include the tradinglevels, that is allow the price time to vibrate at 1300 for a week as it’s still early days at this number
Day Trading: a small retest of 1300 from the 1305/8 or even 1310 and finding support on 1300 can offer the base for the upside but you will need to read that play as it unfolds
FTSE 100 CFD: 5670
TradingLevels: The price is creeping back above the 5700 I still like the 5772 5800 target, the next ECB meeting is the important timing element, I can’t remember off the top of my head when that is, but I will check today, but that is part of the reason for the trend up
Current support is the SG2 5672 zone.
Elliott wave: Once the wave four correction at 5700 is completed then wave five up. The 5720 (72) is a subtle resistance and the 5772 and 5800 are then more real resistance and target points
Day Trading: the SG1 above 5700 is where to scale in, the 72 – 5720 is the pivot and the 5730 as retested support is the lift off point for the 5772 target, the midpoint will also experience supply
SPI CFD 4240
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Support on 4200 is in place the SG2 4265|4272|4280 is the resistance the 4272 is the key price point, there is also an overhead trend line as resistance through this area. The 4300 is obviously a target, it is the top of MinorGroup1 and support on this level creates the break away from 4000 and puts the target at 4500. As Gann would say it’s the fourth time that the price would break through and this would be this time.
Elliott wave: Unsure of the wave count, however what I do know is that the waves up are impulse waves with corrective wave patterns to the downside so there is a trend established.
Day Trading: Continue to trade long using the sublevels, today you would need 4250 as support. Thursday can open higher and trade lower.
11:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 0.0%
11:30am AUD Home Loans m/m 1.1% 0.7%
Technical Analysis
The Dow, we have been observing the impulse wave (five waves) up from 12300 which should be about completed, yes it can push higher to complete the five waves into 12,600 but expect some weakness now that the five waves are nearly finished, that said the trend is up and only if the price trades below 12,400 can we call in a negative bias.
These days the US doesn’t affect the local ASX as much as it did in regards to the general trend, it does have an impact day to day as it’s the last closing price and yes financial events send waves around the globe and more so these days, especially when markets have lost their identities in fear or greed. So we are currently paying more attention to copper and the Shanghai, copper should continue to move up to 400 it will however correct in SG2 zone first we can see US BHP moving up nicely so the Materials sector is driving our ASX, the local banks are over exposed the local property market that is their weakness, so they aren’t going to be much help in this uptrend, as its normally the finance sector that’s leads up from a previous down trend and CBA is not doing that. Any way I reckon it’s the Shanghai market that we need to observe the most and if the price can find support on the 2300 the top of Group1 then that’s the supporting factor for long trade in Resources
Weekly Bullish Cycle, Thursday opening higher and trading lower, if this is the case and the price does trade lower in the afternoon then look at the volume, if the price is moving down and the volume is diminishing then this it’s the best place to buy in the week with Thursday Opening the best place to sell in the week, however we should look to scale in around this timing, such as adding to positions on Friday morning and afternoon if the price is up and the volume is up with a stronger Friday closing is best, then profit taking Tue morning and Wed afternoon, you can also use other countries to hedge to lessen the risk etc.
Trading Quote
Success seems to be connected with action.
Successful people keep moving.
They make mistakes, but they don't quit.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD CPI q/q 0.4% 0.4%
11:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 2.4%
11:30am AUD Employment Change 10.3K -6.3K
11:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 5.3% 5.3%
1:00pm CNY CB Leading Index m/m -0.1%
Tentative CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 13.2%
8:00pm EUR Current Account 0.5B -7.5B
8:00pm EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
12:30am CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m 0.9% -0.8%
12:30am USD Building Permits 0.68M 0.68M
12:30am USD Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
12:30am USD Unemployment Claims 389K 399K
12:30am USD CPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%
12:30am USD Housing Starts 0.69M 0.69M
2:00am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 11.3 10.3
2:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -95B
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Trading Strategies
US Gold CFD: 1659
Day Trading
TradingLevels: The support on the MediumLevel is developing and a move to 1672 is likely, the resistances are still Subgroup2 SG2 1665|1672|1680
Elliott wave: There is a case for a ending diagonal triangle developing in the trend, however we must take into consideration that the price is simply being skew by the MediumLevel.
Local stock NCM has developed a small impulse wave (five waves) up off 30.00 (TL3) as support, TRY has a large triangle pattern above 4.00 MediumLevel
Silver: Has good support on 30.00, stops either under 30 or under the SG2 2972 (eg 2963) The 61.8% retracement level is 3200 and probable target, however you’re in Minor Group1 so you know the 31.00 is the first resistance, you can also use the sublevels if your trading shorter time frames.
Oil WTI: 100
Day Trading:
TradingLevels: The second retest is underway and the move down testing 100 require time to unfold, we need to see if it’s corrective or impulse, if corrective the price should stay above 99 the 618% retracement level, so basically it just a matter of observing the unfolding price pattern around the 100 to see if it becomes the support or resistance and then take the trade long or short from there once you can see it.
Elliott wave: The wave count on our chart has the move up from 98 to 102 as a wave two rally; however the pattern going up looks more like an impulse wave, this is why it’s important to just allow time for the current retesting price on the 100 play out. The US Indices will also have a guiding hand in Oil direction so the wave count for the SP500 should be observed too and just to add a little more the base metals tend to support Oil as well and they are looking positive as we can see in the US BHP
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.73+
US Nickel: Last: 8.81-
US Zinc: Last: 0.90+
US Aluminium Last: 0.97-
Copper CFD: 374
Technical Analysis
Copper continues its line up nicely in a wave three, its tussling with the 372 (SG2) as would be expected and looking at the waves in the structure up the perspective would see the prices at 400 the MediumLevel which of course is great for our long trades in the Materials sector and the AUD
Forex
US Dollar: 80.50
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: It appears from the impulse wave down we are going to see a larger corrective pattern at 80.00 TL8 Major TradingLevel
Elliott Wave: The move down from 82 is an impulse wave (five waves) so once its completed expect a abc rally then another five wave down to 80…
EURUSD 1.2850
TradingLevels: The old high is SG2 12872 zone is also the resistance again, because of the five waves up from the last low 12625 area, the US Dollar also has five waves down
Elliott wave: The Impulse wave up from 12625 last low can be Wave C of 4 or a new positive uptrend is starting, so the five waves up can be a Wave 1 if this is correct then expect and abc correction down into the 128 and lower before moving up, if the top is a Wave C of 4 then we will see an Impulse wave down making new lows under the 1.26
Day Trading: allow the current high to pull back into the 128 let’s see if it’s a abc or impulse pattern, then we will know the next trend direction, I would expect it to run up on the back of the next ECB meeting
Strategy, the trend is moving up, so trade the sublevels up, support on 1.2850 is the next step, if support is found then take part profit at 12865 and the rest at 12872, if the 12872 becomes support move back in and add on 12880 support trade to 129 exit
AUDUSD 1.04
TradingLevels: The price is still developing supports, the current support is in SG2 the 10372 zone however you need the 104 as support, there should be another push higher to 10472 area a new high at least
Elliott wave: The wave four on 104 is very messy, be patient and wait for definite support on 104
Day Trading: when 104 support is in place scale in and build the position through SG1 of 104 take at least 50% profit at the Midpoint then wait for support and then exit at 10472
The flipside if the price finds resistance at 10372 then the wave count is wrong.
Indices
"We are still waiting on potential reversal lower on S&P". And if we take a look once again on the 4h chart, we can see that the upward move is just awful, full of overlaps within parallel trend lines. Clearly, a recovery is running out of strength, so we must be prepared for potential bearish reversal but before that occurs; prices can still test higher resistance.
Dow Jones CFD 12,550
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: prices are edging higher in the impulse wave up and a new high should be made. The price now needs to stay above the 12400 otherwise the bias would change from positive to negative and sure there are prices above the 12400 that can create a negative bias but the 12400 is the main one as it’s the 618% retracement level of the impulse wave up from 12300, I have taken the 618 from the 12600 allowing for a new high to complete the structure
Elliott wave: The impulse wave that we have been observing from the 12300 is now in its fifth wave, so we can expect weakness from any new high under the 12600 such as SG2 12572|12580
Day Trading: Allow a session for wave four to complete and then find support back above 12500 for a the next long trade
S&P500 CFD: 1305
TradingLevels: The price is back above 1300 this is a positive, however its still only part of the dance across the floor 1300, expect he first sublevel of SG1 1310 to be the resistance which will look to retest 1300 checking for support?
Elliott Wave: The four chart shows the ending triangle, on the flip side the top of group1 can cause this type of resistance, so just keep this in mind and also include the tradinglevels, that is allow the price time to vibrate at 1300 for a week as it’s still early days at this number
Day Trading: a small retest of 1300 from the 1305/8 or even 1310 and finding support on 1300 can offer the base for the upside but you will need to read that play as it unfolds
FTSE 100 CFD: 5670
TradingLevels: The price is creeping back above the 5700 I still like the 5772 5800 target, the next ECB meeting is the important timing element, I can’t remember off the top of my head when that is, but I will check today, but that is part of the reason for the trend up
Current support is the SG2 5672 zone.
Elliott wave: Once the wave four correction at 5700 is completed then wave five up. The 5720 (72) is a subtle resistance and the 5772 and 5800 are then more real resistance and target points
Day Trading: the SG1 above 5700 is where to scale in, the 72 – 5720 is the pivot and the 5730 as retested support is the lift off point for the 5772 target, the midpoint will also experience supply
SPI CFD 4240
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Support on 4200 is in place the SG2 4265|4272|4280 is the resistance the 4272 is the key price point, there is also an overhead trend line as resistance through this area. The 4300 is obviously a target, it is the top of MinorGroup1 and support on this level creates the break away from 4000 and puts the target at 4500. As Gann would say it’s the fourth time that the price would break through and this would be this time.
Elliott wave: Unsure of the wave count, however what I do know is that the waves up are impulse waves with corrective wave patterns to the downside so there is a trend established.
Day Trading: Continue to trade long using the sublevels, today you would need 4250 as support. Thursday can open higher and trade lower.
11:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 0.0%
11:30am AUD Home Loans m/m 1.1% 0.7%
Technical Analysis
The Dow, we have been observing the impulse wave (five waves) up from 12300 which should be about completed, yes it can push higher to complete the five waves into 12,600 but expect some weakness now that the five waves are nearly finished, that said the trend is up and only if the price trades below 12,400 can we call in a negative bias.
These days the US doesn’t affect the local ASX as much as it did in regards to the general trend, it does have an impact day to day as it’s the last closing price and yes financial events send waves around the globe and more so these days, especially when markets have lost their identities in fear or greed. So we are currently paying more attention to copper and the Shanghai, copper should continue to move up to 400 it will however correct in SG2 zone first we can see US BHP moving up nicely so the Materials sector is driving our ASX, the local banks are over exposed the local property market that is their weakness, so they aren’t going to be much help in this uptrend, as its normally the finance sector that’s leads up from a previous down trend and CBA is not doing that. Any way I reckon it’s the Shanghai market that we need to observe the most and if the price can find support on the 2300 the top of Group1 then that’s the supporting factor for long trade in Resources
Weekly Bullish Cycle, Thursday opening higher and trading lower, if this is the case and the price does trade lower in the afternoon then look at the volume, if the price is moving down and the volume is diminishing then this it’s the best place to buy in the week with Thursday Opening the best place to sell in the week, however we should look to scale in around this timing, such as adding to positions on Friday morning and afternoon if the price is up and the volume is up with a stronger Friday closing is best, then profit taking Tue morning and Wed afternoon, you can also use other countries to hedge to lessen the risk etc.
Trading Quote
Success seems to be connected with action.
Successful people keep moving.
They make mistakes, but they don't quit.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD CPI q/q 0.4% 0.4%
11:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 2.4%
11:30am AUD Employment Change 10.3K -6.3K
11:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 5.3% 5.3%
1:00pm CNY CB Leading Index m/m -0.1%
Tentative CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 13.2%
8:00pm EUR Current Account 0.5B -7.5B
8:00pm EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
12:30am CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m 0.9% -0.8%
12:30am USD Building Permits 0.68M 0.68M
12:30am USD Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
12:30am USD Unemployment Claims 389K 399K
12:30am USD CPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%
12:30am USD Housing Starts 0.69M 0.69M
2:00am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 11.3 10.3
2:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -95B
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Friday, 23 December 2011
Trading Strategies
A Month FREE TRIAL Trading Strategies: Tradinglounge.com.au
Click to watch Video:- http://youtu.be/Qaf7M8W9cXw
Video Description:- TradingLounge specialises in Technical Analysis, Trading Strategies, Day Trading, Elliott Wave, TradingLevels and Trading Education. For a Free Trial of our CFD Trades for the ASX NYSE and NASDAQ go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
Trading Strategies
22 DecDow Jones 12,113 +0.08%
Base Metals Mixed
US Gold CFDs: 1613
Oil WTI CFDs: 98.58
Copper CFDs: 338
US Dollar CFDs: 80.20
EURUSD 1.3060
AUDUSD 1.0070
Dow Jones CFDs 12,030
S&P500 CFD: 1238
FTSE 100 CFDs: 5400
SPI CFDs 4110
News
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- European stock markets fell Wednesday as debt worries resurfaced after the European Central Bank's first three-year funding operation for the region's banks drew more interest than expected. Losses for software company SAP AG and drug stocks also weighed.
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks fell as questions about loans to euro-zone banks and some earnings disappointments cut into Tuesday's optimism.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFDs: 1613
Trading StrategiesIf you shorted it at 1630 then you are braver than I but well done. I’m a bit of a chicken I like to see a market confirm first, a retest on a certain price point, in this case the 1600 would be fine, so waiting for a move through 1600 to 1590 then a retest of 1600 and failing, then scaling in short adding when 1590 is retested then working the SG2 and especially the 1572 level (72) if your Day Trading.
We also have to remember that we are in a wave four and wave four can get complicated, so the move up from 1565 to the current high can just be the Wave a of a larger abc correction, at the moment we will call it competed but we now need to see the evidence of an impulse structure down (series of five waves).
One of the problems here of course is that this market is following stock / Indices and if the move up yesterday in the US Indices is Wave (i) and todays pull back is wave (ii) then the next Wave is Elliott Wave (iii) up, so Gold can follow the Indices up. We would need to see Gold split from the Indices and the catalyst for this would be the US Dollar moving up, which we now see as the abc pullback is completed but not confirmed, it you need to stay above 80 TL8, we can also look to the CAD and CHF wave counts to help us with the Dollars wave count as they will be in tune to some degree and of course the Euro and SP will be in tune which in turn can help with the Dollar doing the oppositeSliver The pattern that retested TL3 30.00 is more complete as a three wave corrective pattern and there for is the short from 30.00 with stops above the last highOil WTI CFDs: 98.58
That is five Elliott wave up from the last lows around 92.50 to 99.00 so expect an abc correction the numbers 9560 and 9800 are the strongest in this current area, of course the 100 is number 1 TL1 Oil can have its own mind but its always worth checking around to see what else its moving with like the base metalsBase Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.37+
US Nickel: Last: 8.50+
US Zinc: Last: 0.83-
US Aluminium Last: 0.88-Copper CFDs: 338
Trading Strategies
Copper is moving with Gold, so we can consider the move up from the last low around 320 to the current high 344 (50% Retracement) as corrective and should roll over now. From a tradinglevels technical point while the price is above 330 Group1 its supported so we can’t short it. That said if a pattern presents itself as a bearish set up with 340 as the retested resistance we could scale in, but his would be a little dangerous will there is a positive wave count existing on the Indices, I can see the Tech Sector in the US showing the first signs of destroying the positive wave count for the Indices as its pull back is very low, it has broken any rules yet but it would be the leader Forex
take some time, and go through the updated 4h charts posted on "Elliot Wave Counts" page, so that you will know what we are looking now. We expect further strength on stocks, which is bearish for the US dollar.
Forex US Dollar CFD: 80.20
Trading Strategies
The main point here is the first high above the level TL8 is in place and now we are in the corrective phase and the bottom line is we don’t know how large the correction will be, but if the bullish count on the US Indices is correct then this would give us some idea of the correction here, the bullish pattern in the SP500 if correct will be a impulse wave (five waves) and wave one up is completed and wave two down is underway, so wave three four and five to go, so this means the Dollar has further down side?
Forex EURUSD 1.3060
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: The Euro is following the SP500, however the pull back for the SP for wave (ii) and the move down for the Euro is should be strong and longer essentially to make new lows to 129 before a rally up
Elliott Wave: A fall from the highs must be a confirmation that we are constantly talking about. We had three waves up, and impulsive reversal, deeply into the wave (b) territory
As such, this move from the peak is first leg of some larger downtrend, which will ideally be wave 5. So as things stands right now, we are bearish on Euro while we trade below 1.3200 Bearish daily close somewhere around or below support line, will be just another bearish sign.
Trading Strategies: Work the SG2 {13080|13072|13065} with the 13072 as the retested resistance for a short, this is after a retest of 1.31 first. Anyway whatever happens use the sublevels as support and resistance and then use your indicators not the other way around.Forex AUDUSD 1.0070
TradingLevels: The price ran into supply at 1.02 and is now checking for demand at the 50% retracement level, which is essentially the where the volume was building yesterday morning when mentioned in the video to look for support on 1.0072 for a long, price does move to the next largest number, but support and resistance also line up with volume i.e. price consolidations in history
Elliott Wave: The move down from the high appears to be in five waves, therefore expect a rally off current lows 10050 as corrective, expect a corrective rally pattern up into 1.01
Trading Strategy: Be on the right side of 10072 of course wait for the retest as support or resistance and try and work out the small Elliott pattern within SG2 impulsive or corrective, if it is corrective then it’s a continuation pattern. Also line the AUD with the SP500 patternIndices
Dow Jones CFDs 12,030
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: 12,000 support and expect a bounce in three waves
Elliott Wave: If the move up yesterday is bullish then it is Wave (i) and the current pullback is Wave (ii) we should then look at the Wave (ii) as an abc corrective pattern, so the move down is just the Wave a and a Wave b would occur next around or off the 12,000 in three wave, as b wave away have three waves ( a smaller set of abc) Once Wave b is completed the a Wave c (five waves) SO the Wave a is down as it is now and the Wave b up in three waves and the Wave c down in five waves
Trading Strategies: If we are in a Wave (ii) pull back, that is and abc, then really we need to wait for the Wave c to complete then go long into Wave (iii), if we are correct then we are just starting the wave b off 12,000 so wait for this to complete and then trade or wave for the wave c down to complete which will be in five waves, much the same as Wave a. when the five waves are competed wait for a small move up and develop support on a level and start building a long trade in to Wave (iii).
Note: the reason I mentioned shorting Wave c, is simply because if the bullish interpretation is incorrect then the Wave c would actually be part of a larger structure downS&P500 CFDs: 1238
TradingLevels: SG1 {1210|1220|1230} is support and you need to know the significants of each level within SG1 for it to have any meaning. The resistance or the nest level is the Midpoint 1250 followed by SG2 {1265|1272|1280} if the price does move up in line with the bullish Elliott wave count then the SG2 will be an important zone you have to understand to navigate. The wave structure for the bullish count will be a Wave (iii) a powerful structure however the 1272 will be a tough line to cross, so don’t over react, observe and while you’re at it observe yourself reacting, after all part of the trading battle is against yourself
Wave count: One the bullish side, the move up from 1200 to 1255 is wave (i) and the current pullback is Wave (ii) next is the Wave (iii) up making new highs. The Wave (ii) should be and abc a 5-3-5 structure which will unfold next session.
Trading Strategies: Understanding the abc pattern for wave (ii) would be helpfulFTSE 100 CFDs: 5400
TradingLevels: SG2 5372 support will 5400 develop as support if so build in long in line with the SP500 wave count
Elliott Wave: The move up from 5320 to 5480 is being considered as Wave (i) and the current pull back is Wave (ii) this wave (ii) can be completed at SG2 however we should also expect that wave (ii) delivers an abc pattern, so the current move down is considered wave a of an abc correction, however the current low should stay in place so going long from SG2 would be the go
Day Trading Strategies: Long of the long at 5372 SG2 or 5400 as solid support
SPI CFDs 4110
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 4100 needs to build as support for any long trades
Elliott Wave: The move up yesterday is being considered as Wave (i) and the down last night the Wave (ii)
Day Trading Strategies: Trading the sublevels. The move down last night appears to be an impulse wave, so we are considering it part of Wave (ii) the Wave a of an abc corrective pattern, we should now see a Wave b up, Wave b will be in three waves a smaller set of abc 5-3-5, this is tricky to trade, so scalp rather than looking for the trend and therefor work the SG1. The current pull back for Wave(ii) is 618% around the 4090 so that should maintain support the actual volume support is at SG2 4072. So keep an eye on the Copper and the US Dollar you want that under 80 for a move up here as the AUD will help lift the cashSummary
As you know we have been working two counts and just moving with the bias of either count until things become clear, we started to see a bullish impulse wave yesterday in the US markets so we cut our stock shorts which were smaller position sizing because we aren’t in a trend, so it was not big deal as such. We also didn’t really go long yesterday either partly because of Xmas but mainly because the move up yesterday was an unfinished impulse wave (five waves) and once its finished as Wave (i) it will pull back for Wave (ii) which it has done and the next move is Wave (iii) up then four and five… This Wave (ii) can be completed in terms of distance down i.e. 61.8% but in terms of pattern I think its only the Wave a of an abc correction (Zigzag) so you can go long today but keeping wider stops to accommodate the Wave c down. I will explain all of this in the videoWeekly bullish cycle, Wednesday creates the weekly high and Thursday opens higher but trades down as the bear day? If this is the case then it’s the drying up of selling volume in the afternoon you build a long position and Friday should see more buying volume move in with a stronger close. However Friday on the ASX closes early because of Xmas I can’t remember what time, so you best check. If the bullish count is correct then once Friday is finished the market would be set up for a long trade in the first session when it opens again? We will have a better idea about this after the US close tonight.
Trading QuoteDon’t drink too much over Xmas, send it to box 262 Berry 2535 :-}
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD GDP q/q 0.1%
Tentative JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
4:00pm JPY BOJ Monthly Report
8:00pm EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.2% -0.4%
8:30pm GBP Current Account -5.2B -2.0B
8:30pm GBP Final GDP q/q 0.5% 0.5%
8:30pm GBP Revised Business Investment q/q -1.3% -1.4%
12:30am USD Unemployment Claims 376K 366K
12:30am USD Final GDP q/q 2.0% 2.0%
12:30am USD Final GDP Price Index q/q 2.5% 2.5%
1:55am USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 68.1 67.7
1:55am USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 3.1%
2:00am USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.4% 0.9%
2:00am USD OFHEO HPI m/m 0.3% 0.9%
2:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -102B
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Click to watch Video:- http://youtu.be/Qaf7M8W9cXw
Video Description:- TradingLounge specialises in Technical Analysis, Trading Strategies, Day Trading, Elliott Wave, TradingLevels and Trading Education. For a Free Trial of our CFD Trades for the ASX NYSE and NASDAQ go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
Trading Strategies
22 DecDow Jones 12,113 +0.08%
Base Metals Mixed
US Gold CFDs: 1613
Oil WTI CFDs: 98.58
Copper CFDs: 338
US Dollar CFDs: 80.20
EURUSD 1.3060
AUDUSD 1.0070
Dow Jones CFDs 12,030
S&P500 CFD: 1238
FTSE 100 CFDs: 5400
SPI CFDs 4110
News
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- European stock markets fell Wednesday as debt worries resurfaced after the European Central Bank's first three-year funding operation for the region's banks drew more interest than expected. Losses for software company SAP AG and drug stocks also weighed.
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks fell as questions about loans to euro-zone banks and some earnings disappointments cut into Tuesday's optimism.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFDs: 1613
Trading StrategiesIf you shorted it at 1630 then you are braver than I but well done. I’m a bit of a chicken I like to see a market confirm first, a retest on a certain price point, in this case the 1600 would be fine, so waiting for a move through 1600 to 1590 then a retest of 1600 and failing, then scaling in short adding when 1590 is retested then working the SG2 and especially the 1572 level (72) if your Day Trading.
We also have to remember that we are in a wave four and wave four can get complicated, so the move up from 1565 to the current high can just be the Wave a of a larger abc correction, at the moment we will call it competed but we now need to see the evidence of an impulse structure down (series of five waves).
One of the problems here of course is that this market is following stock / Indices and if the move up yesterday in the US Indices is Wave (i) and todays pull back is wave (ii) then the next Wave is Elliott Wave (iii) up, so Gold can follow the Indices up. We would need to see Gold split from the Indices and the catalyst for this would be the US Dollar moving up, which we now see as the abc pullback is completed but not confirmed, it you need to stay above 80 TL8, we can also look to the CAD and CHF wave counts to help us with the Dollars wave count as they will be in tune to some degree and of course the Euro and SP will be in tune which in turn can help with the Dollar doing the oppositeSliver The pattern that retested TL3 30.00 is more complete as a three wave corrective pattern and there for is the short from 30.00 with stops above the last highOil WTI CFDs: 98.58
That is five Elliott wave up from the last lows around 92.50 to 99.00 so expect an abc correction the numbers 9560 and 9800 are the strongest in this current area, of course the 100 is number 1 TL1 Oil can have its own mind but its always worth checking around to see what else its moving with like the base metalsBase Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.37+
US Nickel: Last: 8.50+
US Zinc: Last: 0.83-
US Aluminium Last: 0.88-Copper CFDs: 338
Trading Strategies
Copper is moving with Gold, so we can consider the move up from the last low around 320 to the current high 344 (50% Retracement) as corrective and should roll over now. From a tradinglevels technical point while the price is above 330 Group1 its supported so we can’t short it. That said if a pattern presents itself as a bearish set up with 340 as the retested resistance we could scale in, but his would be a little dangerous will there is a positive wave count existing on the Indices, I can see the Tech Sector in the US showing the first signs of destroying the positive wave count for the Indices as its pull back is very low, it has broken any rules yet but it would be the leader Forex
take some time, and go through the updated 4h charts posted on "Elliot Wave Counts" page, so that you will know what we are looking now. We expect further strength on stocks, which is bearish for the US dollar.
Forex US Dollar CFD: 80.20
Trading Strategies
The main point here is the first high above the level TL8 is in place and now we are in the corrective phase and the bottom line is we don’t know how large the correction will be, but if the bullish count on the US Indices is correct then this would give us some idea of the correction here, the bullish pattern in the SP500 if correct will be a impulse wave (five waves) and wave one up is completed and wave two down is underway, so wave three four and five to go, so this means the Dollar has further down side?
Forex EURUSD 1.3060
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: The Euro is following the SP500, however the pull back for the SP for wave (ii) and the move down for the Euro is should be strong and longer essentially to make new lows to 129 before a rally up
Elliott Wave: A fall from the highs must be a confirmation that we are constantly talking about. We had three waves up, and impulsive reversal, deeply into the wave (b) territory
As such, this move from the peak is first leg of some larger downtrend, which will ideally be wave 5. So as things stands right now, we are bearish on Euro while we trade below 1.3200 Bearish daily close somewhere around or below support line, will be just another bearish sign.
Trading Strategies: Work the SG2 {13080|13072|13065} with the 13072 as the retested resistance for a short, this is after a retest of 1.31 first. Anyway whatever happens use the sublevels as support and resistance and then use your indicators not the other way around.Forex AUDUSD 1.0070
TradingLevels: The price ran into supply at 1.02 and is now checking for demand at the 50% retracement level, which is essentially the where the volume was building yesterday morning when mentioned in the video to look for support on 1.0072 for a long, price does move to the next largest number, but support and resistance also line up with volume i.e. price consolidations in history
Elliott Wave: The move down from the high appears to be in five waves, therefore expect a rally off current lows 10050 as corrective, expect a corrective rally pattern up into 1.01
Trading Strategy: Be on the right side of 10072 of course wait for the retest as support or resistance and try and work out the small Elliott pattern within SG2 impulsive or corrective, if it is corrective then it’s a continuation pattern. Also line the AUD with the SP500 patternIndices
Dow Jones CFDs 12,030
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: 12,000 support and expect a bounce in three waves
Elliott Wave: If the move up yesterday is bullish then it is Wave (i) and the current pullback is Wave (ii) we should then look at the Wave (ii) as an abc corrective pattern, so the move down is just the Wave a and a Wave b would occur next around or off the 12,000 in three wave, as b wave away have three waves ( a smaller set of abc) Once Wave b is completed the a Wave c (five waves) SO the Wave a is down as it is now and the Wave b up in three waves and the Wave c down in five waves
Trading Strategies: If we are in a Wave (ii) pull back, that is and abc, then really we need to wait for the Wave c to complete then go long into Wave (iii), if we are correct then we are just starting the wave b off 12,000 so wait for this to complete and then trade or wave for the wave c down to complete which will be in five waves, much the same as Wave a. when the five waves are competed wait for a small move up and develop support on a level and start building a long trade in to Wave (iii).
Note: the reason I mentioned shorting Wave c, is simply because if the bullish interpretation is incorrect then the Wave c would actually be part of a larger structure downS&P500 CFDs: 1238
TradingLevels: SG1 {1210|1220|1230} is support and you need to know the significants of each level within SG1 for it to have any meaning. The resistance or the nest level is the Midpoint 1250 followed by SG2 {1265|1272|1280} if the price does move up in line with the bullish Elliott wave count then the SG2 will be an important zone you have to understand to navigate. The wave structure for the bullish count will be a Wave (iii) a powerful structure however the 1272 will be a tough line to cross, so don’t over react, observe and while you’re at it observe yourself reacting, after all part of the trading battle is against yourself
Wave count: One the bullish side, the move up from 1200 to 1255 is wave (i) and the current pullback is Wave (ii) next is the Wave (iii) up making new highs. The Wave (ii) should be and abc a 5-3-5 structure which will unfold next session.
Trading Strategies: Understanding the abc pattern for wave (ii) would be helpfulFTSE 100 CFDs: 5400
TradingLevels: SG2 5372 support will 5400 develop as support if so build in long in line with the SP500 wave count
Elliott Wave: The move up from 5320 to 5480 is being considered as Wave (i) and the current pull back is Wave (ii) this wave (ii) can be completed at SG2 however we should also expect that wave (ii) delivers an abc pattern, so the current move down is considered wave a of an abc correction, however the current low should stay in place so going long from SG2 would be the go
Day Trading Strategies: Long of the long at 5372 SG2 or 5400 as solid support
SPI CFDs 4110
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 4100 needs to build as support for any long trades
Elliott Wave: The move up yesterday is being considered as Wave (i) and the down last night the Wave (ii)
Day Trading Strategies: Trading the sublevels. The move down last night appears to be an impulse wave, so we are considering it part of Wave (ii) the Wave a of an abc corrective pattern, we should now see a Wave b up, Wave b will be in three waves a smaller set of abc 5-3-5, this is tricky to trade, so scalp rather than looking for the trend and therefor work the SG1. The current pull back for Wave(ii) is 618% around the 4090 so that should maintain support the actual volume support is at SG2 4072. So keep an eye on the Copper and the US Dollar you want that under 80 for a move up here as the AUD will help lift the cashSummary
As you know we have been working two counts and just moving with the bias of either count until things become clear, we started to see a bullish impulse wave yesterday in the US markets so we cut our stock shorts which were smaller position sizing because we aren’t in a trend, so it was not big deal as such. We also didn’t really go long yesterday either partly because of Xmas but mainly because the move up yesterday was an unfinished impulse wave (five waves) and once its finished as Wave (i) it will pull back for Wave (ii) which it has done and the next move is Wave (iii) up then four and five… This Wave (ii) can be completed in terms of distance down i.e. 61.8% but in terms of pattern I think its only the Wave a of an abc correction (Zigzag) so you can go long today but keeping wider stops to accommodate the Wave c down. I will explain all of this in the videoWeekly bullish cycle, Wednesday creates the weekly high and Thursday opens higher but trades down as the bear day? If this is the case then it’s the drying up of selling volume in the afternoon you build a long position and Friday should see more buying volume move in with a stronger close. However Friday on the ASX closes early because of Xmas I can’t remember what time, so you best check. If the bullish count is correct then once Friday is finished the market would be set up for a long trade in the first session when it opens again? We will have a better idea about this after the US close tonight.
Trading QuoteDon’t drink too much over Xmas, send it to box 262 Berry 2535 :-}
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD GDP q/q 0.1%
Tentative JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
4:00pm JPY BOJ Monthly Report
8:00pm EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.2% -0.4%
8:30pm GBP Current Account -5.2B -2.0B
8:30pm GBP Final GDP q/q 0.5% 0.5%
8:30pm GBP Revised Business Investment q/q -1.3% -1.4%
12:30am USD Unemployment Claims 376K 366K
12:30am USD Final GDP q/q 2.0% 2.0%
12:30am USD Final GDP Price Index q/q 2.5% 2.5%
1:55am USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 68.1 67.7
1:55am USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 3.1%
2:00am USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.4% 0.9%
2:00am USD OFHEO HPI m/m 0.3% 0.9%
2:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -102B
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Forex Trading Strategies Elliott Wave AUDUSD
Elliott Wave AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart: Trading Strategies
Aussie fell during Asian session after RBA cut interest rates to 4.25% as expected. The whole structure from the past week highs is still only in three waves, currently with wave C in progress, which may find the lows very soon. We will keep an eye on levels around 1.0150 and even around 1.0050 if weakness extends. But in either case, we need to wait on impulsive rally, which will suggests that wave X) is done, and strength underway above 1.0300.GET A 1MONTH TRIAL»
AUDUSD 4 Hour Chart
Monday, 5 December 2011 at 5:35:00PM AEST - corrective wave D)
No change after a rise into 1.0340 resistance area in the past week which completely invalidated bearish impulsive interpretations. Now we can clearly see that structure from 1.0751 is in three waves, which is a corrective move. As such, we suspect that this is just another leg of a huge complex wave IV correction, which is showing signs of a triangle consolidation. If we are on the right track, then wave (C) found the lows at 0.9649 and current sharply rally is wave D), which may reach even higher levels in days ahead, around 1.0450/1.0500.GET A 1MONTH TRIAL»
Monday, 5 December 2011 at 5:35:00PM AEST - corrective wave D)
No change after a rise into 1.0340 resistance area in the past week which completely invalidated bearish impulsive interpretations. Now we can clearly see that structure from 1.0751 is in three waves, which is a corrective move. As such, we suspect that this is just another leg of a huge complex wave IV correction, which is showing signs of a triangle consolidation. If we are on the right track, then wave (C) found the lows at 0.9649 and current sharply rally is wave D), which may reach even higher levels in days ahead, around 1.0450/1.0500.GET A 1MONTH TRIAL»
AUDUSD Daily Chart
4 December 2011 – wave IV triangle IV
After a sharp rally seen in the past week from 0.9660 region, we suspect that pair is trapped in the middle of a triangle consolidation but still in complete. We know that triangles are structured by five legs, which means more sideways to come, before pattern is complete.
Meanwhile however we need to consider bearish possibilities as well, alternate bearish triangle count in B wave, especially once wave (D) is finished.GET A 1MONTH TRIAL»
4 December 2011 – wave IV triangle IV
After a sharp rally seen in the past week from 0.9660 region, we suspect that pair is trapped in the middle of a triangle consolidation but still in complete. We know that triangles are structured by five legs, which means more sideways to come, before pattern is complete.
Meanwhile however we need to consider bearish possibilities as well, alternate bearish triangle count in B wave, especially once wave (D) is finished.GET A 1MONTH TRIAL»
29 October 2011 – back to bullish
After some significant weakness seen a month back, pair reversed sharply from 0.933 region, bounced exactly from the upper base channel support line. As such, it seems that Long-term top is still not in place, and that impulsive sequence from 0.6 will continue, currently with wave V into 138.2, 161.8% extended Fibo levels. GET A 1MONTH TRIAL»
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