Video; http://youtu.be/JT0HiwUAsQw
Technical Analysis
Dow Jones 12,660 -0.58%
Base Metals Steady
US Gold CFD: 1724
Oil WTI: 100.75
Copper CFD: 389
US Dollar: 79.40
EURUSD 1.3120
AUDUSD 1.0630
Dow Jones CFD 12,742
S&P500 CFD: 1316
FTSE 100 CFD: 5770
DAX CFD: 6500
SPI CFD 4271
Trading Education
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stock indexes ended mixed Friday after a reading on domestic economic growth fell short of expectations
US Gold CFD: 1738
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The supply and the 78.6% are close to 1750 the Midpoint so expect selling there.
The first resistance is SG2 1665|1772|1780 with the 1772 being the important level.
Then next level is the (mTL8) 1800 the profit taking number, these number are important when you start looking at the wave count in stocks like NCM as you can easily count five waves up from their lows, so they will also go through and abc correction
Elliott Wave: There are two counts we are tracking the bullish count and that’s a large impulse wave up to 2,000 (TL2) as on our Elliott charts.
The other is the bearish count that would complete the trend up under the 1,800, essentially turning with the US Indices and the Euro to the downside with the US Dollar up.
Silver: Possible next top, counting the five waves up off the 30.00 would be around the 3450 to 3500 make sure you lock in profits close to 35.00 if we are wrong, then re-enter using the 3500 as the tested support
Oil WTI: 99.68
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Long with a break above 101 and short under 98.
Elliott Wave: The pattern we have been tracking is still working its self into a corner and will make a break this week either way, so oil traders get ready for being long or short, I will explain the pattern in the video.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.86+
US Nickel: Last: 9.80+
US Zinc: Last: 0.96-
US Aluminium Last: 1.00-
Copper CFD: 389
Technical Analysis:
Will meet 400 the MediumLevel this week and stop trending for a while, however the price should stay above the SG2 372 and eventually edge higher and this price action will reflect in Material sectors through the world. Another guide stick is US BHP as its slowly developing support on the MajorLevel 80 (TL8)
Forex
The euro increased amid optimism Greece was making progress in debt-restructuring talks with bondholders.
US Dollar: 78.90
Technical Analysis:
The Wave A down is still in progress and the Wave A up in the Euro in progress on the premise of the ECB sorting out Greeks debt, if and when these talks show weakness we will see the Wave B up retesting 80.
Lower targets would be the 78.50 to 78 which is close to the 50/62% retracement level, this leaves the Euro at 133+
EURUSD 1.3218
TradingLevels: The Euro is trending up nicely, expect a small abc corrective pattern across 132 then a push higher
Elliott Wave: Euro reached even lower levels seen yesterday, and now minor fall from the top appears to be wave (a), only first leg of a corrective pull-back, which will probably test previous swing highs around 1.0340-1.0370.
Trading Strategies: wait for the abc correction at 132, the scale in long through SG1 to 133
AUDUSD 1.0655
TradingLevels: Resistances 1.0772 – 1.08.
Elliott Wave: We still think that reversal from a top is corrective, part of a larger incomplete bullish trend, but we are not sure if wave four is already finished. Simply because the minor decline from 1.0686 can be counted in five waves, so it’s likely only one leg of a corrective pull-back that may retest 38.2%.
Trading Strategies: understand the comments on Elliott then use the sublevels. Support on the Midpoint 10650 is the key to higher ground and you know the 10672 is what you need to get past to add to the trade
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,663
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The expected reaction at 12,800 mTL8 is under way , we need to wait and see if the move down becomes impulsive or corrective
A move under 12500 and the trend up is broken.
Elliott Wave: The DJI appears to have five waves down, the Futures appear to have three waves down, so we are going to have to see more patterns.
Trading Strategies: Only go long with 12720 (72) as support, otherwise its further down and a move under the last low 12630 would be the short or even 12650 as retested resistance
S&P500 CFD: 1316
TradingLevels: Expect a move back to 1300, if however the price finds support on top of SG1 1330 then this would create a move to 1350 the Midpoint
Elliott wave: Back to 1300 - 1290 (38.2% Retracement)
Trading Strategies: Expect choppy price action between 1310 and 1300
FTSE 100 CFD: 5728
TradingLevels: The reaction from 5800 (mTL8) is unfolding, day trading support are 5720 and 5700.
Elliott Wave: It’s still too early, but it appears five small waves down from 5800 is unfolding, that would mean a bounce off 5700 in three waves (abc Zigzag pattern) back to supply at 5765 SG2 and then down again in five waves. Seeing if the Dax find support on 6500 the MediumLevel will be influencing on the bullish side
Trading Strategies: If your short from the5772 then cover at 5700 and wait.
DAX CFD: 6515
Technical Analysis: Give the price a few sessions at 6500 MediumLevel, lets simply see if this level develops support or as resistance. The real support is still at 6400, so the Dax is positive.
SPI CFD 4282
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: 4300 is the top of MinorGroup1 and support on this level creates the 4500 target price point, this would be in line with Shanghai reaching 2500 but first finding support on 2300 which is also a MinorLevel Group1
Elliott Wave: The main trend is up, but its dealing with old highs at 4300, so expect further corrective patterns first.
Day Trading: Use the 4272 as support or resistance, be on the right side of this sublevel
Summary
US Indices can have a top in place now, as we have been observing the wave structures ending impulsing sub waves finalise. That said we now need evidence of this and that would be seeing sets of impulse waves (five waves) edge down, another way to view this is a break of 12,500 on the Dow, sure that’s quite a way down, but it does break the main trend structure up. The main event next week in the US is of course Facebook coming on the market and this will be the catalyst for any moves in either direction, from my limited readings about the Facebook subject its earning do not match its anting value and therefore has a element of failure as a float, I guess the big bucks will see this overvalued aspect but there is probably enough smaller players to make up the hype, any way an interesting even next week.
China is back from holidays on Monday and should continue to lift higher with the target at 2500; the base metals are still trending nicely helping up the ASX, however the 4300 is required as support to get to the 4500 target and finding support on 4300 can actually take two weeks as its dealing with old highs, so a pullback at 4300 would be normal.
Europe is all about the Greek bailout talks, the results of this will be in the Euro, the Elliott count would be looking for support on 130 then pushing to 132 and then rolling over south.
Trading Quote
If you don’t have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
Monday January 30, 2012
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m -0.4% 0.7%
All Day EUR EU Economic Summit
12:30am USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.1%
12:30am USD Personal Spending m/m 0.2% 0.1%
12:30am USD Personal Income m/m 0.4% 0.1%
Australian Corporate Calendar
Navitas Ltd (NVT.AU) Interim 2012 Results presentation
Australian Worldwide Exploration Ltd (AWE.AU) December Quarterly Report
Navitas Ltd (NVT.AU) Interim 2012 Results
Origin Energy Ltd (ORG.AU) Quarterly Production Report
Resource Generation (RES.AU) December Quarterly Report
Woolworths Ltd (WOW.AU) Q2 2012 Sales
Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (KCN.AU) December Quarterly Report
Lynas Corporation (LYC.AU) December Activities Report
Ceramic Fuel Cells Ltd (CFU.AU) Trading statement
Cockatoo Coal Ltd (COK.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited SAR.AU Quarterly Activities Report
Aston Resources Ltd (AZT.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Panoramic Resources Limited (PAN.AU) December Quarterly Report
Cudeco Limited (CDU.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Bathurst Resources Limited (BTU.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Dart Energy Limited (DEGEF) Quarterly Activities Report
Rex Minerals Limited (RXM.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Integra Mining Limited (IGR.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Ramelius Resources Limited December Quarterly Activities Report
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
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Monday, 30 January 2012
Thursday, 26 January 2012
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News
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Stocks declined, as investors eyed a standoff in Greece's debt-reduction talks and mixed quarterly earnings from a basket of major companies.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1677
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The overhead daily trendline held the high in line with the wave count sending the price down to retest support 1650, this is also in line with many other market correcting as well. As with all markets, Indices, currencies etc. the question is, is the move down simply bullish corrective and will when ready see new highs or is a top in play. We normally wait to see if the first leg down is in three waves (corrective) or five waves (impulse equals direction) this should be clear tomorrow or we may have a lead by the time I finish writing this report as there is still nearly four hours before the close
Elliott Wave: As you know on the 4 hour charts there has been a top forming and we are seeing the price roll over, however it is always important to see the evidence of an impulse wave down. After five waves down then there is three waves up (abc counter trend) this is where you look to short and not in during the first fives waves down. Also in this case the you don’t really want to short when the price is above the MediumLevel 1650 you need the 1650 as the retested resistance, a solid resistance price point to work from.
Silver: Silver is holding up better than gold, however it’s still correcting across 32.00 and will likely test 31-SG2 (3165|3172|3180) if not the Midpoint 3150
The 38.2% is 3162 for a wave four, then push up from there?
Oil WTI: 98.76
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: If the last low around 97.50 is taken out that would place Oil in the bearish count, while 98 is the support the structure is positive.
Elliott Wave: On the Oil charts the wave count is bearish, however we are waiting for confirmation, from a trading point of view that can be 98.00 as the retested resistance. you can try to scale in earlier between 99 and 98 if you understand the intraday pattern and that would start by seeing the 99 retested twice as the resistance, then use the sublevels to build the trade, with the view of a long term build through 98, 95, 92 and 90 but as mentioned we still need the evidence in the structure and 98 as resistance is a start, otherwise it leaves an open door of upside risk.
Also keep an eye on the wave counts for the Dow/SP500 because of the relationship to oil.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.78+
US Nickel: Last: 9.39+
US Zinc: Last: 0.94+
US Aluminium: Last: 0.99+
Copper CFD: 378
Technical Analysis:
You know the main trend for base metals is up with corrections here and there at certain levels, copper is trapped in SG2 the ASX Materials Sector at the MediumLevel 11,500 US BHP resistance at 80, so we know this uptrend can support the ASX200 and edge it higher slowly until this levels of resistance become support, you also know the ASX200 is dragging its feet in relation to our Asian neighbours, but we are likely to follow up the Shanghai to 2500 the MediumLevel in due course, so the Australian market is positive, it could be the banks that are slowing the ASX200 down, as some Japanese banks with much lower lending rates are eyeing up our home mortgage market waiting to move in, this will flood the market and because our banks are heavily involved in the housing market they are now at risk, we can use CBA being above or below 50 (TL5) as a positive negative indicator for this.
Forex
US Dollar: 80.30
Technical Analysis:
As you know we have been counting five wave down from the high around 82.00, you know we are in the wave five now and in wave five there are five smaller waves which are probably now completed, it’s just a little hard to tell as large numbers like 80 can skew the pattern somewhat, we can look at the CAD but that’s a little tricky at the moment the CHF seems easier and there seems a little lower to come in that.
Any way the move down from 82 is the larger Wave A of an ABC corrective pattern and the Wave B will be starting now, the Euro will be doing the opposite, as will the Indices.
What we can expect is the 80 to hold the price for a while, we will see corrective overlapping pattern at 80 while 80 tries and develops support for the Wave B that should be up for a short time perhaps to 81, the resistances are the Midpoint 8050 then SG2 8065|8072|8080
EURUSD 1.3017
TradingLevels: The price has corrected down below 130 then moved back above, that is a positive. The move up needs to develop support by testing 130 for support, if found then use the sublevel SG1 to work a trade higher
Elliott Wave: The move down from the 13060 to 12950 is in three waves, corrective, so at some point a new high will be made. The move down maybe just the Wave a of and abc for wave four corrective pattern then move up or it can move up now once and if it develops support on 1.30, if there is a move higher, it would be a Wave five and would also complete the larger structure higher the Wave A so targets around the 13072 - 131
Trading Strategies: The 1.30 is the top of MinorGroup1 (MG1) it is also a whole number so we can expect the price to stick to it for a while, so make sure you have clear supports to work from, the 13030 is one of them after a retest of 1.30 confirming demand
AUDUSD 1.0477
TradingLevels: The corrective pattern across 105 is unfolding as thought, the move above 105 roughly 10572 (72) is much the same distance the swing below was to roughly 10430 this is a normal thing and worth noting, this can be in any time frame even the ASX200 swing above 5000 and then below in the big bull and bear market it was only out 100 points. But the main point here is to understand this and use it in all markets and all degrees of structure
Elliott Wave: The move down is either the Wave a) or Wave i) either way it’s completed now and the Wave b) or Wave ii) up is underway, which is a retest of supply with the 105 the pivot in this larger pattern once this move up is completed expect another move down, the norm would be down to 104 but it can stay above the 10450 essentially sticking to 105, if this is the case then the market is strong and it would be worth going long off the 105
Trading Strategies: Well your trading in a corrective pattern, so its trickier, you can look to seel the failed retest of 105 and use the sublevels SG2 with the 10472 being the central pivot but also use the 10465 as a trigger to add to shorts, covering a percentage at the Midpoint 10450 if this becomes the resistance then proceed to 10430 and then cover
11:30am AUD CPI q/q 0.2% 0.6%
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,668
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: As mentioned below in the Elliott wave, there is a three wave pattern, as long as the last low just above 12600 stays in place its corrective and a move up can occur, the 12,650 is the second support mention yesterday and its holding the price now.
This can be seen as a larger corrective pattern across 12,700, the main numbers in this region are 12,772, 12,720, 12672 these are all 72 number and the 7 is to do with time, which can also translate into the bigger picture 1987 and 2007 etc. any way it’s just one of many small things I like to keep an eye on, I don’t fully understand it but I see it enough to take note.
Elliott Wave: The move down is in three waves (bullish corrective) however it can develop into five waves (impulse) it’s too early to say.
Trading Strategies: The price needs to find support back on 12,700 and long trades on 12,720 otherwise your facing too much exposure, as the price can fail whilst under the 12,700, support on 12,700 would see the price at 12,772 – 12800.
Scalpers can work of the SG2 12,672
S&P500 CFD: 1312
TradingLevels: Can see the resistance at 1320 and now the support at 1310, while the price is above 1300 the market can be treated with a positive bias.
Elliott Wave: small abc correction down from the high to 1305, is this is the case then a new high above 1320
Trading Strategies: Any long trade now need to stay above 105
FTSE 100 CFD: 5777
TradingLevels: Target above 5800, resistance is SG2 5765|5772|5780 the 5772 is the pivot required as support for adding longs. The 5720 SG2 is the support. If the Midpoint can develop support you can use that to scale in long. A larger corrective pattern can emerge while the price is under 5772, it’s not a good idea to over trade around 5800 mTL8 anyway.
Elliott Wave: Is this a top, well if the 5772 becomes the retested resistance then that’s a start, allow three swings across 5772 then look for support or resistance. That is from the high, so we are looking at the first one down and now the beginnings of the fir one up, that’s two. After three then look for support or resistance at 5772
Trading Strategies: Use the sublevels and take profit at the next levels
DAX CFD: 6425
Technical Analysis: The move down last night on the Dax has now retraced 61.8%.
The critical low for day trading is the 6372 the price needs to stay above this to maintain a positive structure and of course use the 6400 as support if it develops and the 6430 as support to build or add to long trades taking part profit at the Midpoint 6450 and the SG2 is the resistance 6465|6472|6480 with the 6472 being the important level
SPI CFD 4230
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The overhead trendline is forcing the price back in to 4200. The AUS is also correcting so it would be a good idea to line the AUD with this market so you can get a feel of when its likely to move. Long trades would only be safer above the 4250. The other factor is waiting for China to reopen
Elliott Wave: The pattern on 4200 is corrective, so a move up when its ready is likely, the negative aspect is the move up from 4000 it’s not a good looking impulse wave its more corrective, but with the Asian markets moving up we have to go along with that general trend
Day Trading: Support 4200 so stops under that for trend traders. Day trading require support on 4230 you can work off 4220 but the 4230 is safer, the 4250 Midpoint is the resistance from the overhead trend line.
11:30am AUD CPI q/q 0.2% 0.6%
Summary
The Corrective pattern down on the US Indices appears to be in three waves the is corrective, therefore new highs should be made.
That said, its still slightly early to confirm these three waves, as they can turn into five waves impulsive, so the low of the last session needs to stay in place.
IF it is three waves down (bullish corrective) then I would think one more high will occur, then a larger correction down would unfold late in the week or early next week.
So if we use the Dow as an example, the last around 12,618 needs to stay in place, if this is the case then we can look at 12,772 and 12,800 as the targets before seeing a larger correction. The European markets are the same, the Australian markets as you know have a relationship with the European markets however that is slipping as we are aligning more with Shanghai and besides money is money from the Euro to AUD
IF correct this would give us time with our Robo Long trades, we should however be clipping small profits along the way.
Trading Quote
Be aggressive in trending market and conservative in choppy market.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
10:30am AUD MI Leading Index m/m 0.1%
10:50am JPY Trade Balance 0.36T 0.54T
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
11:30am AUD CPI q/q 0.2% 0.6%
11:30am AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q 0.6% 0.3%
1:00pm NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 3.2%
1:00pm USD President Obama Speaks
4:00pm JPY BOJ Monthly Report
7:00pm CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks
8:00pm EUR German Ifo Business Climate 107.7 107.2
8:00pm EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.1% 0.1%
Day 1 ALL WEF Annual Meetings
8:30pm GBP MPC Meeting Minutes 0-0-9 0-0-9
8:30pm GBP Prelim GDP q/q -0.1% 0.6%
8:30pm GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 35.3K 34.7K
8:30pm GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.4% 0.2%
10:00pm GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations -19 -23
12:15am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
2:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m -0.3% 7.3%
2:00am USD OFHEO HPI m/m 0.3% -0.2%
2:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.4M
6:15am USD FOMC Statement
6:15am USD Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%
Australian Corporate Calendar
Gloucester Coal (GCL.AU)* Q2 2012 Results
Metminco (MMCLF)* December Quarterly Activities Report
Alesco Corp Ltd (ALS.AU) Interim 2012 Results
Beach Energy (BPT.AU) Q2 2012 Activities Report
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
Trading Education From the TradingLounge including Technical Analysis, Trading Strategies, Day Trading, Elliott Wave, TradingLevels,Volume Action our Trading Education is Friendly and Affordable with 30 Years’ Experience with ASFL There is also available for a Free Trial go to tradinglounge.com.au.
CFD Education
Play Video to learn more: youtu.be/JG3apm3nF-M
News
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Stocks declined, as investors eyed a standoff in Greece's debt-reduction talks and mixed quarterly earnings from a basket of major companies.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1677
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The overhead daily trendline held the high in line with the wave count sending the price down to retest support 1650, this is also in line with many other market correcting as well. As with all markets, Indices, currencies etc. the question is, is the move down simply bullish corrective and will when ready see new highs or is a top in play. We normally wait to see if the first leg down is in three waves (corrective) or five waves (impulse equals direction) this should be clear tomorrow or we may have a lead by the time I finish writing this report as there is still nearly four hours before the close
Elliott Wave: As you know on the 4 hour charts there has been a top forming and we are seeing the price roll over, however it is always important to see the evidence of an impulse wave down. After five waves down then there is three waves up (abc counter trend) this is where you look to short and not in during the first fives waves down. Also in this case the you don’t really want to short when the price is above the MediumLevel 1650 you need the 1650 as the retested resistance, a solid resistance price point to work from.
Silver: Silver is holding up better than gold, however it’s still correcting across 32.00 and will likely test 31-SG2 (3165|3172|3180) if not the Midpoint 3150
The 38.2% is 3162 for a wave four, then push up from there?
Oil WTI: 98.76
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: If the last low around 97.50 is taken out that would place Oil in the bearish count, while 98 is the support the structure is positive.
Elliott Wave: On the Oil charts the wave count is bearish, however we are waiting for confirmation, from a trading point of view that can be 98.00 as the retested resistance. you can try to scale in earlier between 99 and 98 if you understand the intraday pattern and that would start by seeing the 99 retested twice as the resistance, then use the sublevels to build the trade, with the view of a long term build through 98, 95, 92 and 90 but as mentioned we still need the evidence in the structure and 98 as resistance is a start, otherwise it leaves an open door of upside risk.
Also keep an eye on the wave counts for the Dow/SP500 because of the relationship to oil.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.78+
US Nickel: Last: 9.39+
US Zinc: Last: 0.94+
US Aluminium: Last: 0.99+
Copper CFD: 378
Technical Analysis:
You know the main trend for base metals is up with corrections here and there at certain levels, copper is trapped in SG2 the ASX Materials Sector at the MediumLevel 11,500 US BHP resistance at 80, so we know this uptrend can support the ASX200 and edge it higher slowly until this levels of resistance become support, you also know the ASX200 is dragging its feet in relation to our Asian neighbours, but we are likely to follow up the Shanghai to 2500 the MediumLevel in due course, so the Australian market is positive, it could be the banks that are slowing the ASX200 down, as some Japanese banks with much lower lending rates are eyeing up our home mortgage market waiting to move in, this will flood the market and because our banks are heavily involved in the housing market they are now at risk, we can use CBA being above or below 50 (TL5) as a positive negative indicator for this.
Forex
US Dollar: 80.30
Technical Analysis:
As you know we have been counting five wave down from the high around 82.00, you know we are in the wave five now and in wave five there are five smaller waves which are probably now completed, it’s just a little hard to tell as large numbers like 80 can skew the pattern somewhat, we can look at the CAD but that’s a little tricky at the moment the CHF seems easier and there seems a little lower to come in that.
Any way the move down from 82 is the larger Wave A of an ABC corrective pattern and the Wave B will be starting now, the Euro will be doing the opposite, as will the Indices.
What we can expect is the 80 to hold the price for a while, we will see corrective overlapping pattern at 80 while 80 tries and develops support for the Wave B that should be up for a short time perhaps to 81, the resistances are the Midpoint 8050 then SG2 8065|8072|8080
EURUSD 1.3017
TradingLevels: The price has corrected down below 130 then moved back above, that is a positive. The move up needs to develop support by testing 130 for support, if found then use the sublevel SG1 to work a trade higher
Elliott Wave: The move down from the 13060 to 12950 is in three waves, corrective, so at some point a new high will be made. The move down maybe just the Wave a of and abc for wave four corrective pattern then move up or it can move up now once and if it develops support on 1.30, if there is a move higher, it would be a Wave five and would also complete the larger structure higher the Wave A so targets around the 13072 - 131
Trading Strategies: The 1.30 is the top of MinorGroup1 (MG1) it is also a whole number so we can expect the price to stick to it for a while, so make sure you have clear supports to work from, the 13030 is one of them after a retest of 1.30 confirming demand
AUDUSD 1.0477
TradingLevels: The corrective pattern across 105 is unfolding as thought, the move above 105 roughly 10572 (72) is much the same distance the swing below was to roughly 10430 this is a normal thing and worth noting, this can be in any time frame even the ASX200 swing above 5000 and then below in the big bull and bear market it was only out 100 points. But the main point here is to understand this and use it in all markets and all degrees of structure
Elliott Wave: The move down is either the Wave a) or Wave i) either way it’s completed now and the Wave b) or Wave ii) up is underway, which is a retest of supply with the 105 the pivot in this larger pattern once this move up is completed expect another move down, the norm would be down to 104 but it can stay above the 10450 essentially sticking to 105, if this is the case then the market is strong and it would be worth going long off the 105
Trading Strategies: Well your trading in a corrective pattern, so its trickier, you can look to seel the failed retest of 105 and use the sublevels SG2 with the 10472 being the central pivot but also use the 10465 as a trigger to add to shorts, covering a percentage at the Midpoint 10450 if this becomes the resistance then proceed to 10430 and then cover
11:30am AUD CPI q/q 0.2% 0.6%
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,668
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: As mentioned below in the Elliott wave, there is a three wave pattern, as long as the last low just above 12600 stays in place its corrective and a move up can occur, the 12,650 is the second support mention yesterday and its holding the price now.
This can be seen as a larger corrective pattern across 12,700, the main numbers in this region are 12,772, 12,720, 12672 these are all 72 number and the 7 is to do with time, which can also translate into the bigger picture 1987 and 2007 etc. any way it’s just one of many small things I like to keep an eye on, I don’t fully understand it but I see it enough to take note.
Elliott Wave: The move down is in three waves (bullish corrective) however it can develop into five waves (impulse) it’s too early to say.
Trading Strategies: The price needs to find support back on 12,700 and long trades on 12,720 otherwise your facing too much exposure, as the price can fail whilst under the 12,700, support on 12,700 would see the price at 12,772 – 12800.
Scalpers can work of the SG2 12,672
S&P500 CFD: 1312
TradingLevels: Can see the resistance at 1320 and now the support at 1310, while the price is above 1300 the market can be treated with a positive bias.
Elliott Wave: small abc correction down from the high to 1305, is this is the case then a new high above 1320
Trading Strategies: Any long trade now need to stay above 105
FTSE 100 CFD: 5777
TradingLevels: Target above 5800, resistance is SG2 5765|5772|5780 the 5772 is the pivot required as support for adding longs. The 5720 SG2 is the support. If the Midpoint can develop support you can use that to scale in long. A larger corrective pattern can emerge while the price is under 5772, it’s not a good idea to over trade around 5800 mTL8 anyway.
Elliott Wave: Is this a top, well if the 5772 becomes the retested resistance then that’s a start, allow three swings across 5772 then look for support or resistance. That is from the high, so we are looking at the first one down and now the beginnings of the fir one up, that’s two. After three then look for support or resistance at 5772
Trading Strategies: Use the sublevels and take profit at the next levels
DAX CFD: 6425
Technical Analysis: The move down last night on the Dax has now retraced 61.8%.
The critical low for day trading is the 6372 the price needs to stay above this to maintain a positive structure and of course use the 6400 as support if it develops and the 6430 as support to build or add to long trades taking part profit at the Midpoint 6450 and the SG2 is the resistance 6465|6472|6480 with the 6472 being the important level
SPI CFD 4230
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The overhead trendline is forcing the price back in to 4200. The AUS is also correcting so it would be a good idea to line the AUD with this market so you can get a feel of when its likely to move. Long trades would only be safer above the 4250. The other factor is waiting for China to reopen
Elliott Wave: The pattern on 4200 is corrective, so a move up when its ready is likely, the negative aspect is the move up from 4000 it’s not a good looking impulse wave its more corrective, but with the Asian markets moving up we have to go along with that general trend
Day Trading: Support 4200 so stops under that for trend traders. Day trading require support on 4230 you can work off 4220 but the 4230 is safer, the 4250 Midpoint is the resistance from the overhead trend line.
11:30am AUD CPI q/q 0.2% 0.6%
Summary
The Corrective pattern down on the US Indices appears to be in three waves the is corrective, therefore new highs should be made.
That said, its still slightly early to confirm these three waves, as they can turn into five waves impulsive, so the low of the last session needs to stay in place.
IF it is three waves down (bullish corrective) then I would think one more high will occur, then a larger correction down would unfold late in the week or early next week.
So if we use the Dow as an example, the last around 12,618 needs to stay in place, if this is the case then we can look at 12,772 and 12,800 as the targets before seeing a larger correction. The European markets are the same, the Australian markets as you know have a relationship with the European markets however that is slipping as we are aligning more with Shanghai and besides money is money from the Euro to AUD
IF correct this would give us time with our Robo Long trades, we should however be clipping small profits along the way.
Trading Quote
Be aggressive in trending market and conservative in choppy market.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
10:30am AUD MI Leading Index m/m 0.1%
10:50am JPY Trade Balance 0.36T 0.54T
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
11:30am AUD CPI q/q 0.2% 0.6%
11:30am AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q 0.6% 0.3%
1:00pm NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 3.2%
1:00pm USD President Obama Speaks
4:00pm JPY BOJ Monthly Report
7:00pm CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks
8:00pm EUR German Ifo Business Climate 107.7 107.2
8:00pm EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.1% 0.1%
Day 1 ALL WEF Annual Meetings
8:30pm GBP MPC Meeting Minutes 0-0-9 0-0-9
8:30pm GBP Prelim GDP q/q -0.1% 0.6%
8:30pm GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 35.3K 34.7K
8:30pm GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.4% 0.2%
10:00pm GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations -19 -23
12:15am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
2:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m -0.3% 7.3%
2:00am USD OFHEO HPI m/m 0.3% -0.2%
2:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.4M
6:15am USD FOMC Statement
6:15am USD Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%
Australian Corporate Calendar
Gloucester Coal (GCL.AU)* Q2 2012 Results
Metminco (MMCLF)* December Quarterly Activities Report
Alesco Corp Ltd (ALS.AU) Interim 2012 Results
Beach Energy (BPT.AU) Q2 2012 Activities Report
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
Tuesday, 24 January 2012
Technical Analysis
To Watch Video on Technical Analysis Visit Us on Youtube http://youtu.be/xZYM420Fa08
Description:
TradingLounge’s Peter Mathers Technical Analyst outlines Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies using the Tradinglevels Pattern Recognition Elliott Wave as Trading Education.
This Day Trading report is only the lead in for the actual mechanical Robo Day Trading for the Australia, US and UK Markets, Forex Elliott Wave Technical Analysis is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
Technical Analysis
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks held losses as investors mulled Greece's debt-swap negotiations and a meeting between euro-zone financial ministers.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1677
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The overhead trendline from Sept and Dec last year on the daily chart are also the resistance now at 1680 (SG2) There is also another over head trend line on the hour chart cutting into the area. The key for direction is simply to allow the price time to develop at 1672 as support or resistance. Essentially the move up from the MediumLevel 1650 is testing new highs within Subgroup2 1665|1672|1680 and the pivot 1672 as support or resistance is the key for the next direction.
Elliott Wave: As you can see on the 1 hour Gold Chart the Elliott count has a completion here at the 1680. As always you would need to see an impulse wave down (five waves) for the start of a down trend. From a trading point of view understand the price is is SG2 only if it was out of SG2 to the downside would you start shorting, you can scale in with a failed retest of 1672 then add on the failed retest of 1665 cover shorts close to 1650, that’s if the price moves through these moves, for the upside the 1672 as support then adding on 1680 with the view of getting to 1700, you need to trade what you see and use support and resistance as your trading friends, how you handle the money is how you make it, defend and attack at the right time, a trader needs to learn to defend first only then will you know when to attack
Silver: Expect a corrective pattern at the 32.00, expect three swings then a push higher to 33.00 as the strong move up would be a wave three, so the correction at 32.00 would have to be wave four and you know they are sideways. Complicated and time consuming, but they are the foundation for the next trend up the fifth wave, which should be on lower volume they the third wave
Oil WTI: 99
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The retest from MinorLevel (mTL8) 98.00 to 100 (TL1) is now underway as expected, so we wait for this to play out as support or resistance, the short can be a move back under 98.00 and a long trade can be support on 100, you can improve on the short trade.
Elliott Wave: The retest of 100, if it’s correction then it will be in three waves if its bullish then five waves and so far it appears five waves developing on the 10 minute chart but this can be just the Wave A of an ABC corrective rally. I will explain in the video so you will know what to look out for.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.77+
US Nickel: Last: 9.20-
US Zinc: Last: 0.61-
US Aluminium Last: 0.99+
Copper CFD: 377
Technical Analysis:
As you know we are seeing a wave four corrective pattern unfold within Subgroup2 (SG2 365|372|380) this is time consuming as long as the price stays above the 360 the trend up is fine, the price is likely to stay with SG2 but with China closed for a week there may be less support from the Shanghai Copper Futures contracts.
US BHP at the Major TradingLevel TL8 | 80.00 is going to struggle and probably retract to some degree so taking part profit at high prices is sensible trading, it is likely to see copper back at 365 during this corrective process. In Australia it’s the small stocks (XSO) that will have the wider trading ranges and the ASX Material sector will also correct at the MediumLevel 11,500. So don’t expect the Materials to trend up, it’s more of a profit taking, especially while China is on holidays this week. Another small but important point is that the SP500 move down seems to be developing in five waves, so a correction there too
Forex
US Dollar: 80.30
Technical Analysis:
Will the 80 (MajorLevel TL8) and 1.30 on the Euro be the turn?
We can expect for the next session or two that the price will retest at these levels, they will move above and below. The US Dollar high roughly around 81.78 (Index) can see a natural swing that distance below 80 that would be close to the first MinorLevel 98.00, there are supports at 79.50 and 79.00, but in the slightly bigger picture with the US trending up we are actually seeing the price work its way through TL8 in the Classic TradingLevels pattern., so we have just had the first high above the level and now the correction, the ABC correction, the move down is just the Wave A, so it’s the Wave C that may take it down to 78 (mTL8)
EURUSD 1.30
TradingLevels: When working with one level also include the next degree lower above and below the level you are working with, because the smaller levels above and below are the first support and resistance that you can work a trade from. So at 1.30 Subgroup1 above 1.3010|1.3020|1.3030 is SG1 and below 1.30 is Subgroup2 SG2 1.2980|1.2972|1.2965 Expect the current price to move around these levels
Elliott Wave: Understanding the ABC corrective pattern on the US Dollar obviously helps understanding the ABC pattern on the Euro
Trading Strategies: The Wave A up is probably completed and should start to focus on the Wave B on the charts it’s a move down to 128 but because the price is at the 130 the Wave B corrective pattern may stay closer to 1.30 and that is a move back to 129 it would be advisable to also observe the SP500 wave structure as it moves back into 1300
Ps. Looking at the US dollar there can be another small move down, so the Euro can move up to 13072 before starting the Wave B, support on 1330 creates the long.
AUDUSD 1.0530
TradingLevels: Expect a larger corrective pattern across 1.05
Elliott Wave: The current high can be the top of the current trend, expect a move back to 105 and below to 10472 SG2 zone
Trading Strategies: Short, but expect the price to bounce around in SG1 10510|10520|10530 and 105 bounce as buyer will be sitting there. In the slightly bigger picture the current support is back at 104 and can be tested
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,700
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The price reached the lower end of SG2 12765|12772|12780 it’s the 12,772 that is the resistance followed by 12,800.
Elliott Wave: The move down appears to be impulsive, so a retest of the trend down then another trend down, this can be seen as an ABC correction or a more series top in play
Trading Strategies: This is a corrective pattern at 12700 the first support is SG2 12672, second support 12650 We have to expect a minimum of three swings at this current high before we can judge if a top is in play, we can see from the Currencies that a reasonable correction can occur here
S&P500 CFD: 1315
TradingLevels: Expecting the 1320 as resistance with the price retesting 1300 even lower at 1280 first support followed by 1272, whatever happens a corrective abc pattern at 1300 is probable in line with the Euro and the AUD
Elliott Wave: ABC correction starting back into 1300
Trading Strategies: Trade the sublevels and MicroLevels while the pattern is in SG1 and 1300 with the likelihood of a larger corrective pattern unfolding. On the flip side support on 1320 would see the price at 1330 but the 1320 support must be tested, retest.
FTSE 100 CFD: 5777
TradingLevels: The price has reached the target 5572 SG2 it will either corrected here in line with the US markets and currencies or spike to 5800 and correct.
Elliott Wave: Is this a top, well if the 5772 becomes the retested resistance then that’s a start, allow three swings across 5772 then look for support or resistance. That is from the high, so we are looking at the first one down and now the beginnings of the fir one up, that’s two. After three then look for support or resistance at 5772
Trading Strategies: Allow the price time to dance around in SG2 waiting for 5772 to become the support or resistance and then trade in that direction
DAX CFD: 6425
Technical Analysis: Resistance MediumLevel 6500, If the Dax slips under 6400 then weakness is in. While it’s above the 6400 the trend is up to the resistance and MediumLevel 6500
SPI CFD 4233
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: SG1 4210|4220|4230 is still the support above the 4200, however the Midpoint 4250 is creating the strong resistance, we don’t have the Chinese market open this week for the lead, and now the US markets and Currencies have finished a particular Elliott wave pattern up and are likely to have a larger correction. When working with SG1 the 4220 is the pivot so use this as support or resistance to assess the bias resistance negative support positive.
Elliott Wave: The pattern above 4200 is very much the same as the AUD when it was last at 104, meaning it can get messy here
Day Trading: The pattern above 4200 is corrective, but it can get larger and more messy, I don’t know where the lead will come from to move it up the N225 is trending strongly as are other Asian markets, but the ASX is being lazy. The main trend is up, but expect small corrections. The PPI figures on Monday were basically flat so its normal to expect the CPI figures on Wednesday to be flat to slightly lower, basically no shock to the markets
Summary
China being close for the week the leads will come from the US unless the ECB meeting on 26th is negative, Greece can be the catalyst for a pullback.
US, we have been tracking the Elliott count up and figured that the current trend was ending, the Dow target was 12772 and the SP500 1320, the sharp sell off last session helps confirm that the top of this current trend is completed and a larger correction (pull back) can now take place.
The US Dollar is in an ABC correction down and the Euro in an ABC up, they both have completed or nearly completed their Wave A of their ABC corrections, there Wave B will coincide with the US and European pull backs that are likely to unfold.
The Asian markets are bullish, except the ASX which is being quite lazy and with China closed and the US possibly correcting will cause the ASX200 to stick to 4200
Weekly bullish Cycle was also broken on Monday by not having the internal momentum to move higher, this is a sign of weakness.
To keep it simple, allow the Dow to flicker across 12,700 in the next session and if the price finds the 12700 as resistance then the correction is starting if its support then the pull back is minor.
It is a good idea to lock is more profit on the Daily Robo long trades while the prices are higher. Defence is the first action to take, if the closing price on the daily bar closes lower then the open, then reduce, also if the opening price opens lower than the previous close reduce. There are a few more videos on the Robo on the Robo Strategy page, I still need to make more on the attack side and the money management which I plan to do shortly as I would like to create a clear path for using the Daily Robo.
Trading Quote
Most of traders lose because they don’t have a winning strategy. Apart from this even among those traders who do, many don’t follow their strategy. Trading puts pressure on weaker human traits and seems to seek out each individual’s Achilles’ heel. - GILL BLAKE
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
10:00am AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.6%
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate <0.10% <0.10%
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
6:00pm CHF UBS Consumption Indicator 0.81
7:00pm EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.3 48.9
7:00pm EUR French Flash Services PMI 50.5 50.3
7:30pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.1 48.4
7:30pm EUR German Flash Services PMI 52.6 52.4
8:00pm EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.4 46.9
8:00pm EUR Flash Services PMI 49.1 48.8
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings
8:30pm GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 12.7B 15.2B
9:00pm EUR Industrial New Orders m/m -2.1% 1.8%
12:30am CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.7%
12:30am CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 1.0%
1:00am EUR Belgium NBB Business Climate -10.1 -10.6
2:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 6 3
3:15am CHF Gov Board Member Danthine Speaks
7:00am GBP BOE Gov King Speaks
Australian Corporate Calendar
Whitehaven Coal WHC. December Activities Report
PanAust Ltd PNA. December Quarterly Report
Ferro Metals Interim Management Statement & Production
Kingsgate Consolidated KCN December Quarterly Report
Medusa Mining Ltd (MDSMF) December Quarterly Report
Newcrest Mining Ltd NCM December Quarterly Results
Resource Generation RES December Quarterly Report
G.U.D. Holdings GUD Interim 2012 Results
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
Description:
TradingLounge’s Peter Mathers Technical Analyst outlines Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies using the Tradinglevels Pattern Recognition Elliott Wave as Trading Education.
This Day Trading report is only the lead in for the actual mechanical Robo Day Trading for the Australia, US and UK Markets, Forex Elliott Wave Technical Analysis is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
Technical Analysis
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks held losses as investors mulled Greece's debt-swap negotiations and a meeting between euro-zone financial ministers.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1677
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The overhead trendline from Sept and Dec last year on the daily chart are also the resistance now at 1680 (SG2) There is also another over head trend line on the hour chart cutting into the area. The key for direction is simply to allow the price time to develop at 1672 as support or resistance. Essentially the move up from the MediumLevel 1650 is testing new highs within Subgroup2 1665|1672|1680 and the pivot 1672 as support or resistance is the key for the next direction.
Elliott Wave: As you can see on the 1 hour Gold Chart the Elliott count has a completion here at the 1680. As always you would need to see an impulse wave down (five waves) for the start of a down trend. From a trading point of view understand the price is is SG2 only if it was out of SG2 to the downside would you start shorting, you can scale in with a failed retest of 1672 then add on the failed retest of 1665 cover shorts close to 1650, that’s if the price moves through these moves, for the upside the 1672 as support then adding on 1680 with the view of getting to 1700, you need to trade what you see and use support and resistance as your trading friends, how you handle the money is how you make it, defend and attack at the right time, a trader needs to learn to defend first only then will you know when to attack
Silver: Expect a corrective pattern at the 32.00, expect three swings then a push higher to 33.00 as the strong move up would be a wave three, so the correction at 32.00 would have to be wave four and you know they are sideways. Complicated and time consuming, but they are the foundation for the next trend up the fifth wave, which should be on lower volume they the third wave
Oil WTI: 99
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The retest from MinorLevel (mTL8) 98.00 to 100 (TL1) is now underway as expected, so we wait for this to play out as support or resistance, the short can be a move back under 98.00 and a long trade can be support on 100, you can improve on the short trade.
Elliott Wave: The retest of 100, if it’s correction then it will be in three waves if its bullish then five waves and so far it appears five waves developing on the 10 minute chart but this can be just the Wave A of an ABC corrective rally. I will explain in the video so you will know what to look out for.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.77+
US Nickel: Last: 9.20-
US Zinc: Last: 0.61-
US Aluminium Last: 0.99+
Copper CFD: 377
Technical Analysis:
As you know we are seeing a wave four corrective pattern unfold within Subgroup2 (SG2 365|372|380) this is time consuming as long as the price stays above the 360 the trend up is fine, the price is likely to stay with SG2 but with China closed for a week there may be less support from the Shanghai Copper Futures contracts.
US BHP at the Major TradingLevel TL8 | 80.00 is going to struggle and probably retract to some degree so taking part profit at high prices is sensible trading, it is likely to see copper back at 365 during this corrective process. In Australia it’s the small stocks (XSO) that will have the wider trading ranges and the ASX Material sector will also correct at the MediumLevel 11,500. So don’t expect the Materials to trend up, it’s more of a profit taking, especially while China is on holidays this week. Another small but important point is that the SP500 move down seems to be developing in five waves, so a correction there too
Forex
US Dollar: 80.30
Technical Analysis:
Will the 80 (MajorLevel TL8) and 1.30 on the Euro be the turn?
We can expect for the next session or two that the price will retest at these levels, they will move above and below. The US Dollar high roughly around 81.78 (Index) can see a natural swing that distance below 80 that would be close to the first MinorLevel 98.00, there are supports at 79.50 and 79.00, but in the slightly bigger picture with the US trending up we are actually seeing the price work its way through TL8 in the Classic TradingLevels pattern., so we have just had the first high above the level and now the correction, the ABC correction, the move down is just the Wave A, so it’s the Wave C that may take it down to 78 (mTL8)
EURUSD 1.30
TradingLevels: When working with one level also include the next degree lower above and below the level you are working with, because the smaller levels above and below are the first support and resistance that you can work a trade from. So at 1.30 Subgroup1 above 1.3010|1.3020|1.3030 is SG1 and below 1.30 is Subgroup2 SG2 1.2980|1.2972|1.2965 Expect the current price to move around these levels
Elliott Wave: Understanding the ABC corrective pattern on the US Dollar obviously helps understanding the ABC pattern on the Euro
Trading Strategies: The Wave A up is probably completed and should start to focus on the Wave B on the charts it’s a move down to 128 but because the price is at the 130 the Wave B corrective pattern may stay closer to 1.30 and that is a move back to 129 it would be advisable to also observe the SP500 wave structure as it moves back into 1300
Ps. Looking at the US dollar there can be another small move down, so the Euro can move up to 13072 before starting the Wave B, support on 1330 creates the long.
AUDUSD 1.0530
TradingLevels: Expect a larger corrective pattern across 1.05
Elliott Wave: The current high can be the top of the current trend, expect a move back to 105 and below to 10472 SG2 zone
Trading Strategies: Short, but expect the price to bounce around in SG1 10510|10520|10530 and 105 bounce as buyer will be sitting there. In the slightly bigger picture the current support is back at 104 and can be tested
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,700
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The price reached the lower end of SG2 12765|12772|12780 it’s the 12,772 that is the resistance followed by 12,800.
Elliott Wave: The move down appears to be impulsive, so a retest of the trend down then another trend down, this can be seen as an ABC correction or a more series top in play
Trading Strategies: This is a corrective pattern at 12700 the first support is SG2 12672, second support 12650 We have to expect a minimum of three swings at this current high before we can judge if a top is in play, we can see from the Currencies that a reasonable correction can occur here
S&P500 CFD: 1315
TradingLevels: Expecting the 1320 as resistance with the price retesting 1300 even lower at 1280 first support followed by 1272, whatever happens a corrective abc pattern at 1300 is probable in line with the Euro and the AUD
Elliott Wave: ABC correction starting back into 1300
Trading Strategies: Trade the sublevels and MicroLevels while the pattern is in SG1 and 1300 with the likelihood of a larger corrective pattern unfolding. On the flip side support on 1320 would see the price at 1330 but the 1320 support must be tested, retest.
FTSE 100 CFD: 5777
TradingLevels: The price has reached the target 5572 SG2 it will either corrected here in line with the US markets and currencies or spike to 5800 and correct.
Elliott Wave: Is this a top, well if the 5772 becomes the retested resistance then that’s a start, allow three swings across 5772 then look for support or resistance. That is from the high, so we are looking at the first one down and now the beginnings of the fir one up, that’s two. After three then look for support or resistance at 5772
Trading Strategies: Allow the price time to dance around in SG2 waiting for 5772 to become the support or resistance and then trade in that direction
DAX CFD: 6425
Technical Analysis: Resistance MediumLevel 6500, If the Dax slips under 6400 then weakness is in. While it’s above the 6400 the trend is up to the resistance and MediumLevel 6500
SPI CFD 4233
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: SG1 4210|4220|4230 is still the support above the 4200, however the Midpoint 4250 is creating the strong resistance, we don’t have the Chinese market open this week for the lead, and now the US markets and Currencies have finished a particular Elliott wave pattern up and are likely to have a larger correction. When working with SG1 the 4220 is the pivot so use this as support or resistance to assess the bias resistance negative support positive.
Elliott Wave: The pattern above 4200 is very much the same as the AUD when it was last at 104, meaning it can get messy here
Day Trading: The pattern above 4200 is corrective, but it can get larger and more messy, I don’t know where the lead will come from to move it up the N225 is trending strongly as are other Asian markets, but the ASX is being lazy. The main trend is up, but expect small corrections. The PPI figures on Monday were basically flat so its normal to expect the CPI figures on Wednesday to be flat to slightly lower, basically no shock to the markets
Summary
China being close for the week the leads will come from the US unless the ECB meeting on 26th is negative, Greece can be the catalyst for a pullback.
US, we have been tracking the Elliott count up and figured that the current trend was ending, the Dow target was 12772 and the SP500 1320, the sharp sell off last session helps confirm that the top of this current trend is completed and a larger correction (pull back) can now take place.
The US Dollar is in an ABC correction down and the Euro in an ABC up, they both have completed or nearly completed their Wave A of their ABC corrections, there Wave B will coincide with the US and European pull backs that are likely to unfold.
The Asian markets are bullish, except the ASX which is being quite lazy and with China closed and the US possibly correcting will cause the ASX200 to stick to 4200
Weekly bullish Cycle was also broken on Monday by not having the internal momentum to move higher, this is a sign of weakness.
To keep it simple, allow the Dow to flicker across 12,700 in the next session and if the price finds the 12700 as resistance then the correction is starting if its support then the pull back is minor.
It is a good idea to lock is more profit on the Daily Robo long trades while the prices are higher. Defence is the first action to take, if the closing price on the daily bar closes lower then the open, then reduce, also if the opening price opens lower than the previous close reduce. There are a few more videos on the Robo on the Robo Strategy page, I still need to make more on the attack side and the money management which I plan to do shortly as I would like to create a clear path for using the Daily Robo.
Trading Quote
Most of traders lose because they don’t have a winning strategy. Apart from this even among those traders who do, many don’t follow their strategy. Trading puts pressure on weaker human traits and seems to seek out each individual’s Achilles’ heel. - GILL BLAKE
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
10:00am AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.6%
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate <0.10% <0.10%
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
6:00pm CHF UBS Consumption Indicator 0.81
7:00pm EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.3 48.9
7:00pm EUR French Flash Services PMI 50.5 50.3
7:30pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.1 48.4
7:30pm EUR German Flash Services PMI 52.6 52.4
8:00pm EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.4 46.9
8:00pm EUR Flash Services PMI 49.1 48.8
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings
8:30pm GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 12.7B 15.2B
9:00pm EUR Industrial New Orders m/m -2.1% 1.8%
12:30am CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.7%
12:30am CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 1.0%
1:00am EUR Belgium NBB Business Climate -10.1 -10.6
2:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 6 3
3:15am CHF Gov Board Member Danthine Speaks
7:00am GBP BOE Gov King Speaks
Australian Corporate Calendar
Whitehaven Coal WHC. December Activities Report
PanAust Ltd PNA. December Quarterly Report
Ferro Metals Interim Management Statement & Production
Kingsgate Consolidated KCN December Quarterly Report
Medusa Mining Ltd (MDSMF) December Quarterly Report
Newcrest Mining Ltd NCM December Quarterly Results
Resource Generation RES December Quarterly Report
G.U.D. Holdings GUD Interim 2012 Results
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
Monday, 23 January 2012
CFD Day Trading
To Watch Video on CFD Day Trading Visit Us on Youtube http://youtu.be/56G1NVcTRUM
Day Trading
Video: http://youtu.be/56G1NVcTRUM
Description:
Day Trading and Day Trading Strategies from the TradingLounge Education.
This Technical Analysis video is the basis for setting up our Mechanical Day Trading Methods called Robo, the Robo trades are for the AU, UK and USA , if you require Day Trades for these markets or further Trading Education in Technical Analysis such as Elliott Wave or TradingLevels then visit the TradingLounge for a Free Trial http://tradinglounge.com.au
Day Trading
Video: http://youtu.be/56G1NVcTRUM
Description:
Day Trading and Day Trading Strategies from the TradingLounge Education.
This Technical Analysis video is the basis for setting up our Mechanical Day Trading Methods called Robo, the Robo trades are for the AU, UK and USA , if you require Day Trades for these markets or further Trading Education in Technical Analysis such as Elliott Wave or TradingLevels then visit the TradingLounge for a Free Trial http://tradinglounge.com.au
Elliott Wave
TradingLounge specialists in Technical Analysis such as TradingLevels, Elliott Wave Theory, Price and Volume. Plus Trading Strategies, Day Trading and Trading Education. Elliott Wave also available for a Free Trial http://tradinglounge.com.au
Elliott Wave
To Watch Video on Elliott Wave Visit Us on Youtube http://youtu.be/LF7JloIcmfs
US Gold CFD: 1650
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The resistances at Subgroup2 SG2 1665|1672|1680 are in place while the price retests the MediumLevel support 1650, I would expect the MediumLevel to be broken as part of a larger corrective pattern to unfold as the trend up from 1520 hasn’t been corrected, how far down will the correction come, the 50% retracement level is 1600 and there are supports in SG1 1610|1620|1630 so there is reasonable support to hold the price steady, we should consider 1630 and 1620, if the price does get to here we can look at the structure of the pattern and work out what’s next, simply by seeing if the first leg down is five or three waves. So yes a top is in place and now we need to see if the pattern down is going to be impulsive or corrective.
You can only short if the 1650 is retested and locked in as the resistance, with the view of adding to short further down , say under 1640 and exit at 1630 if 1620 becomes the resistance, then work the trade lower from their, we would need to see the US Dollar move up from its current five waves down, it should move up in three waves and abc correction and therefore Gold should move down in an abc correction
Elliott wave: An abc correction down to 1600? We need to see more of the structure if it does find 1650 as the retested resistance
Silver: The 30 support will be tested and probably broken, as gold didn’t move up enough to find support on 1672 so now a corrective pattern is unfolding down. Do hold long trades if the price moves under 30.00
Oil WTI: 100.50
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Oil’s pattern up from the 13th is much the same as gold’s, above the 100 the price pattern has overlapping wave structures so a corrective pattern is on the cards
Elliott wave For a bearish bias to start the price requires the 100 to be the resistance, short trades would start scaling in on the first or second failed retest of 100, the first retest would be a bounce off 99 back to 100 and the second retest from the first MinorLevel 98.00 this is the more important one from a technical point of view
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.78+
US Nickel: Last: 9.10+
US Zinc: Last: 0.91+
US Aluminium Last: 0.98+
Copper CFD: 378
Technical Analysis
The main trend is up but we have to expect a corrective pattern at 380 back to 372.
US BHP will struggle at 80 (TL8) and the Australian Materials sector will struggle at its MediumLevel 15000 and the ASX touched on the overhead triangle trendline, as they say Risk On. Remember that the precious metals and Oil are about to correct and the US Dollar find its low after five waves down and the mirror opposite the Euro, US and UK Indices are completing their five Elliott wave up
Forex
US Dollar: 80.40
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: I was expecting the Dollar to complete its five waves down into 80 then bounce in three waves, the Euro, US and UK Indices doing the opposite with their five waves up the down in to 12600 – 12650 the SP500 1310 -1320 and the LSE 5772 – 5800
The five waves down is a little complicated so also look at the CHF and CAD
EURUSD 1.2920
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 130 is the brick wall, expect sharper sell offs close to this level, it’s also likely the 129 will be retested for a larger corrective pattern down from the 12950 back to the 129
Elliott wave The impulse wave up retesting 130 is extending and is complicated like the Dollar moving down, as you can see on our Euro chart the wave five is near completion.
Trading Strategies: European bond sales are lifting the price up, but I also think it’s got to do with the next ECB meeting which I think is on the 26 Jan a holiday for us in Australia
AUDUSD 1.04
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: On the daily chart just like the ASX200 there is an overhead trendline from a triangle looking pattern that is casing the resistance the battle is at 104. As long as the price stays above the 10372 SG2 the market is bullish, under the 13050 is not a good look
Elliott wave Still considering the pattern at 104 a wave four once completed a push higher to 10472 - 105
Trading Strategies: It has been very messy for intraday traders, which can frustrate and deter, but keep in mind that the bigger the correction the better the next trend, don’t let it leave without you. If you are long look to add when the SG1 10430 is the support
1:30pm CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.7
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,600
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 12650 is about roughly right for the impulse wave from 12300 to complete. The 12772 and 12800 are the bigger numbers which of course is under the 13000 the Major TradingLevel, the 12800 is a profit taking number and the 12,772 a timing price point and the 12650 is a sublevel that always packs a unexpected punch.
But first things first, the Dow nearly always works to every 100 points so the 12,600 is where we are at, so corrective activity here.
Elliott wave I mentioned about counting five waves up from the 12300, however we can narrow that down, we can count another five waves up from the 12450 which is from the low of a wave four of the five waves up from 12300, so counting five waves up from the 12450 is what you need to do.
Trading Strategies: Give the price more time at 12600 and if you see a corrective pattern below 12600 then the price climbing back above 12600 then scale in through SG1
S&P500 CFD: 1315
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Resistance at 1320 and a possible move back to 1300 from the 1320, that said if the price finds support on 1330 the top of subgroup1 (SG1) which is also the top of Minor Group1 (MG1) 1300 then higher ground is on the way. That said, I think we are looking at the first high above the level 1300 which should run out of steam and correct across and below 1300 with support at 1272 SG2 zone
Elliott wave five small sub waves ending into 1320
Trading Strategies: depending on your degree of structure that you trade, but wait for a pullback in 1310 after this small corrective pullback if it can climb back above 1310 as support then trade long, if you trade MicroLevels then just work the level and read the volume play
FTSE 100 CFD: 5743
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Support is building above the (72) 5720 which is a long time coming, the 5750 Midpoint will play its part firstly as resistance then support with the higher targets of the 5772 and 5800
Elliott wave It can fail at 5750 so unless your trading longer term, exit now at 5740+ and wait for support on 5750
Trading Strategies: noted above
SPI CFD 4250
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The overhead trendline from the triangle pattern knocked the price back to support at 4200 and the second attempt is under way, this time the 4272 will come into play as the resistance this is SG2 4265|4272|4280 you need the 4272 as support for being long
Elliott wave Unsure.
Day Trading: 4250 as support for longs
1:30pm CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.7
Technical Analysis
The catalysts driving the markets are buying the lows in China (SSEC) with the base metals being the fasted moving vehicle and the ECB meeting looking ever hopeful as European bond selling is actually happening, which actually is digging a deeper whole which in the end will take a wider circle of investor with it. I think the meeting is on the 26/1 so the markets can run to this date.
Back to the base metals which is the driver in Oz, I would expect a correction in Copper from the run its had up, the corrective pattern from 380 to 372 or 365 at the same time US BHP will struggle at 80 (TL8) and therefor the ASX Materials Sector XMJ will struggle at the MediumLevel 15000, if this is the case then this we reflect across our markets.
In this trend up, so the Dow, we can now starting counting five smaller waves from the 12450 which should take us near the 12650… I’m looking for the catalysts that can take our long trades safely higher… the China PMI figures are out today 1 pm and they are centrally important to base metals, the next is our Weekly Bullish Cycle, each day this week has done as expected, so we are looking for a stronger Friday close with Monday also being up. That said don’t over trade and use stops.
Trading Quote
Ninety-precent of any great trader is going to be the risk control.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
11:30am AUD Import Prices q/q 0.6% 0.0%
1:30pm CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.7
3:30pm JPY All Industries Activity m/m -0.6% 0.8%
6:00pm EUR German PPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
8:30pm GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.6% -0.4%
11:00pm CAD Core CPI m/m -0.2% 0.1%
11:00pm CAD CPI m/m -0.1% 0.1%
12:30am CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 1.2% 0.9%
2:00am USD Existing Home Sales
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
Elliott Wave
To Watch Video on Elliott Wave Visit Us on Youtube http://youtu.be/LF7JloIcmfs
US Gold CFD: 1650
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The resistances at Subgroup2 SG2 1665|1672|1680 are in place while the price retests the MediumLevel support 1650, I would expect the MediumLevel to be broken as part of a larger corrective pattern to unfold as the trend up from 1520 hasn’t been corrected, how far down will the correction come, the 50% retracement level is 1600 and there are supports in SG1 1610|1620|1630 so there is reasonable support to hold the price steady, we should consider 1630 and 1620, if the price does get to here we can look at the structure of the pattern and work out what’s next, simply by seeing if the first leg down is five or three waves. So yes a top is in place and now we need to see if the pattern down is going to be impulsive or corrective.
You can only short if the 1650 is retested and locked in as the resistance, with the view of adding to short further down , say under 1640 and exit at 1630 if 1620 becomes the resistance, then work the trade lower from their, we would need to see the US Dollar move up from its current five waves down, it should move up in three waves and abc correction and therefore Gold should move down in an abc correction
Elliott wave: An abc correction down to 1600? We need to see more of the structure if it does find 1650 as the retested resistance
Silver: The 30 support will be tested and probably broken, as gold didn’t move up enough to find support on 1672 so now a corrective pattern is unfolding down. Do hold long trades if the price moves under 30.00
Oil WTI: 100.50
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Oil’s pattern up from the 13th is much the same as gold’s, above the 100 the price pattern has overlapping wave structures so a corrective pattern is on the cards
Elliott wave For a bearish bias to start the price requires the 100 to be the resistance, short trades would start scaling in on the first or second failed retest of 100, the first retest would be a bounce off 99 back to 100 and the second retest from the first MinorLevel 98.00 this is the more important one from a technical point of view
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.78+
US Nickel: Last: 9.10+
US Zinc: Last: 0.91+
US Aluminium Last: 0.98+
Copper CFD: 378
Technical Analysis
The main trend is up but we have to expect a corrective pattern at 380 back to 372.
US BHP will struggle at 80 (TL8) and the Australian Materials sector will struggle at its MediumLevel 15000 and the ASX touched on the overhead triangle trendline, as they say Risk On. Remember that the precious metals and Oil are about to correct and the US Dollar find its low after five waves down and the mirror opposite the Euro, US and UK Indices are completing their five Elliott wave up
Forex
US Dollar: 80.40
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: I was expecting the Dollar to complete its five waves down into 80 then bounce in three waves, the Euro, US and UK Indices doing the opposite with their five waves up the down in to 12600 – 12650 the SP500 1310 -1320 and the LSE 5772 – 5800
The five waves down is a little complicated so also look at the CHF and CAD
EURUSD 1.2920
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 130 is the brick wall, expect sharper sell offs close to this level, it’s also likely the 129 will be retested for a larger corrective pattern down from the 12950 back to the 129
Elliott wave The impulse wave up retesting 130 is extending and is complicated like the Dollar moving down, as you can see on our Euro chart the wave five is near completion.
Trading Strategies: European bond sales are lifting the price up, but I also think it’s got to do with the next ECB meeting which I think is on the 26 Jan a holiday for us in Australia
AUDUSD 1.04
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: On the daily chart just like the ASX200 there is an overhead trendline from a triangle looking pattern that is casing the resistance the battle is at 104. As long as the price stays above the 10372 SG2 the market is bullish, under the 13050 is not a good look
Elliott wave Still considering the pattern at 104 a wave four once completed a push higher to 10472 - 105
Trading Strategies: It has been very messy for intraday traders, which can frustrate and deter, but keep in mind that the bigger the correction the better the next trend, don’t let it leave without you. If you are long look to add when the SG1 10430 is the support
1:30pm CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.7
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,600
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 12650 is about roughly right for the impulse wave from 12300 to complete. The 12772 and 12800 are the bigger numbers which of course is under the 13000 the Major TradingLevel, the 12800 is a profit taking number and the 12,772 a timing price point and the 12650 is a sublevel that always packs a unexpected punch.
But first things first, the Dow nearly always works to every 100 points so the 12,600 is where we are at, so corrective activity here.
Elliott wave I mentioned about counting five waves up from the 12300, however we can narrow that down, we can count another five waves up from the 12450 which is from the low of a wave four of the five waves up from 12300, so counting five waves up from the 12450 is what you need to do.
Trading Strategies: Give the price more time at 12600 and if you see a corrective pattern below 12600 then the price climbing back above 12600 then scale in through SG1
S&P500 CFD: 1315
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Resistance at 1320 and a possible move back to 1300 from the 1320, that said if the price finds support on 1330 the top of subgroup1 (SG1) which is also the top of Minor Group1 (MG1) 1300 then higher ground is on the way. That said, I think we are looking at the first high above the level 1300 which should run out of steam and correct across and below 1300 with support at 1272 SG2 zone
Elliott wave five small sub waves ending into 1320
Trading Strategies: depending on your degree of structure that you trade, but wait for a pullback in 1310 after this small corrective pullback if it can climb back above 1310 as support then trade long, if you trade MicroLevels then just work the level and read the volume play
FTSE 100 CFD: 5743
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Support is building above the (72) 5720 which is a long time coming, the 5750 Midpoint will play its part firstly as resistance then support with the higher targets of the 5772 and 5800
Elliott wave It can fail at 5750 so unless your trading longer term, exit now at 5740+ and wait for support on 5750
Trading Strategies: noted above
SPI CFD 4250
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The overhead trendline from the triangle pattern knocked the price back to support at 4200 and the second attempt is under way, this time the 4272 will come into play as the resistance this is SG2 4265|4272|4280 you need the 4272 as support for being long
Elliott wave Unsure.
Day Trading: 4250 as support for longs
1:30pm CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.7
Technical Analysis
The catalysts driving the markets are buying the lows in China (SSEC) with the base metals being the fasted moving vehicle and the ECB meeting looking ever hopeful as European bond selling is actually happening, which actually is digging a deeper whole which in the end will take a wider circle of investor with it. I think the meeting is on the 26/1 so the markets can run to this date.
Back to the base metals which is the driver in Oz, I would expect a correction in Copper from the run its had up, the corrective pattern from 380 to 372 or 365 at the same time US BHP will struggle at 80 (TL8) and therefor the ASX Materials Sector XMJ will struggle at the MediumLevel 15000, if this is the case then this we reflect across our markets.
In this trend up, so the Dow, we can now starting counting five smaller waves from the 12450 which should take us near the 12650… I’m looking for the catalysts that can take our long trades safely higher… the China PMI figures are out today 1 pm and they are centrally important to base metals, the next is our Weekly Bullish Cycle, each day this week has done as expected, so we are looking for a stronger Friday close with Monday also being up. That said don’t over trade and use stops.
Trading Quote
Ninety-precent of any great trader is going to be the risk control.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
11:30am AUD Import Prices q/q 0.6% 0.0%
1:30pm CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.7
3:30pm JPY All Industries Activity m/m -0.6% 0.8%
6:00pm EUR German PPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
8:30pm GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.6% -0.4%
11:00pm CAD Core CPI m/m -0.2% 0.1%
11:00pm CAD CPI m/m -0.1% 0.1%
12:30am CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 1.2% 0.9%
2:00am USD Existing Home Sales
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
Thursday, 19 January 2012
Trading Strategies
To Watch Video on Trading Strategies Visit Us on Youtube http://youtu.be/aB337_YoZ-U
Trading Strategies
US Gold CFD: 1659
Day Trading
TradingLevels: The support on the MediumLevel is developing and a move to 1672 is likely, the resistances are still Subgroup2 SG2 1665|1672|1680
Elliott wave: There is a case for a ending diagonal triangle developing in the trend, however we must take into consideration that the price is simply being skew by the MediumLevel.
Local stock NCM has developed a small impulse wave (five waves) up off 30.00 (TL3) as support, TRY has a large triangle pattern above 4.00 MediumLevel
Silver: Has good support on 30.00, stops either under 30 or under the SG2 2972 (eg 2963) The 61.8% retracement level is 3200 and probable target, however you’re in Minor Group1 so you know the 31.00 is the first resistance, you can also use the sublevels if your trading shorter time frames.
Oil WTI: 100
Day Trading:
TradingLevels: The second retest is underway and the move down testing 100 require time to unfold, we need to see if it’s corrective or impulse, if corrective the price should stay above 99 the 618% retracement level, so basically it just a matter of observing the unfolding price pattern around the 100 to see if it becomes the support or resistance and then take the trade long or short from there once you can see it.
Elliott wave: The wave count on our chart has the move up from 98 to 102 as a wave two rally; however the pattern going up looks more like an impulse wave, this is why it’s important to just allow time for the current retesting price on the 100 play out. The US Indices will also have a guiding hand in Oil direction so the wave count for the SP500 should be observed too and just to add a little more the base metals tend to support Oil as well and they are looking positive as we can see in the US BHP
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.73+
US Nickel: Last: 8.81-
US Zinc: Last: 0.90+
US Aluminium Last: 0.97-
Copper CFD: 374
Technical Analysis
Copper continues its line up nicely in a wave three, its tussling with the 372 (SG2) as would be expected and looking at the waves in the structure up the perspective would see the prices at 400 the MediumLevel which of course is great for our long trades in the Materials sector and the AUD
Forex
US Dollar: 80.50
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: It appears from the impulse wave down we are going to see a larger corrective pattern at 80.00 TL8 Major TradingLevel
Elliott Wave: The move down from 82 is an impulse wave (five waves) so once its completed expect a abc rally then another five wave down to 80…
EURUSD 1.2850
TradingLevels: The old high is SG2 12872 zone is also the resistance again, because of the five waves up from the last low 12625 area, the US Dollar also has five waves down
Elliott wave: The Impulse wave up from 12625 last low can be Wave C of 4 or a new positive uptrend is starting, so the five waves up can be a Wave 1 if this is correct then expect and abc correction down into the 128 and lower before moving up, if the top is a Wave C of 4 then we will see an Impulse wave down making new lows under the 1.26
Day Trading: allow the current high to pull back into the 128 let’s see if it’s a abc or impulse pattern, then we will know the next trend direction, I would expect it to run up on the back of the next ECB meeting
Strategy, the trend is moving up, so trade the sublevels up, support on 1.2850 is the next step, if support is found then take part profit at 12865 and the rest at 12872, if the 12872 becomes support move back in and add on 12880 support trade to 129 exit
AUDUSD 1.04
TradingLevels: The price is still developing supports, the current support is in SG2 the 10372 zone however you need the 104 as support, there should be another push higher to 10472 area a new high at least
Elliott wave: The wave four on 104 is very messy, be patient and wait for definite support on 104
Day Trading: when 104 support is in place scale in and build the position through SG1 of 104 take at least 50% profit at the Midpoint then wait for support and then exit at 10472
The flipside if the price finds resistance at 10372 then the wave count is wrong.
Indices
"We are still waiting on potential reversal lower on S&P". And if we take a look once again on the 4h chart, we can see that the upward move is just awful, full of overlaps within parallel trend lines. Clearly, a recovery is running out of strength, so we must be prepared for potential bearish reversal but before that occurs; prices can still test higher resistance.
Dow Jones CFD 12,550
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: prices are edging higher in the impulse wave up and a new high should be made. The price now needs to stay above the 12400 otherwise the bias would change from positive to negative and sure there are prices above the 12400 that can create a negative bias but the 12400 is the main one as it’s the 618% retracement level of the impulse wave up from 12300, I have taken the 618 from the 12600 allowing for a new high to complete the structure
Elliott wave: The impulse wave that we have been observing from the 12300 is now in its fifth wave, so we can expect weakness from any new high under the 12600 such as SG2 12572|12580
Day Trading: Allow a session for wave four to complete and then find support back above 12500 for a the next long trade
S&P500 CFD: 1305
TradingLevels: The price is back above 1300 this is a positive, however its still only part of the dance across the floor 1300, expect he first sublevel of SG1 1310 to be the resistance which will look to retest 1300 checking for support?
Elliott Wave: The four chart shows the ending triangle, on the flip side the top of group1 can cause this type of resistance, so just keep this in mind and also include the tradinglevels, that is allow the price time to vibrate at 1300 for a week as it’s still early days at this number
Day Trading: a small retest of 1300 from the 1305/8 or even 1310 and finding support on 1300 can offer the base for the upside but you will need to read that play as it unfolds
FTSE 100 CFD: 5670
TradingLevels: The price is creeping back above the 5700 I still like the 5772 5800 target, the next ECB meeting is the important timing element, I can’t remember off the top of my head when that is, but I will check today, but that is part of the reason for the trend up
Current support is the SG2 5672 zone.
Elliott wave: Once the wave four correction at 5700 is completed then wave five up. The 5720 (72) is a subtle resistance and the 5772 and 5800 are then more real resistance and target points
Day Trading: the SG1 above 5700 is where to scale in, the 72 – 5720 is the pivot and the 5730 as retested support is the lift off point for the 5772 target, the midpoint will also experience supply
SPI CFD 4240
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Support on 4200 is in place the SG2 4265|4272|4280 is the resistance the 4272 is the key price point, there is also an overhead trend line as resistance through this area. The 4300 is obviously a target, it is the top of MinorGroup1 and support on this level creates the break away from 4000 and puts the target at 4500. As Gann would say it’s the fourth time that the price would break through and this would be this time.
Elliott wave: Unsure of the wave count, however what I do know is that the waves up are impulse waves with corrective wave patterns to the downside so there is a trend established.
Day Trading: Continue to trade long using the sublevels, today you would need 4250 as support. Thursday can open higher and trade lower.
11:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 0.0%
11:30am AUD Home Loans m/m 1.1% 0.7%
Technical Analysis
The Dow, we have been observing the impulse wave (five waves) up from 12300 which should be about completed, yes it can push higher to complete the five waves into 12,600 but expect some weakness now that the five waves are nearly finished, that said the trend is up and only if the price trades below 12,400 can we call in a negative bias.
These days the US doesn’t affect the local ASX as much as it did in regards to the general trend, it does have an impact day to day as it’s the last closing price and yes financial events send waves around the globe and more so these days, especially when markets have lost their identities in fear or greed. So we are currently paying more attention to copper and the Shanghai, copper should continue to move up to 400 it will however correct in SG2 zone first we can see US BHP moving up nicely so the Materials sector is driving our ASX, the local banks are over exposed the local property market that is their weakness, so they aren’t going to be much help in this uptrend, as its normally the finance sector that’s leads up from a previous down trend and CBA is not doing that. Any way I reckon it’s the Shanghai market that we need to observe the most and if the price can find support on the 2300 the top of Group1 then that’s the supporting factor for long trade in Resources
Weekly Bullish Cycle, Thursday opening higher and trading lower, if this is the case and the price does trade lower in the afternoon then look at the volume, if the price is moving down and the volume is diminishing then this it’s the best place to buy in the week with Thursday Opening the best place to sell in the week, however we should look to scale in around this timing, such as adding to positions on Friday morning and afternoon if the price is up and the volume is up with a stronger Friday closing is best, then profit taking Tue morning and Wed afternoon, you can also use other countries to hedge to lessen the risk etc.
Trading Quote
Success seems to be connected with action.
Successful people keep moving.
They make mistakes, but they don't quit.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD CPI q/q 0.4% 0.4%
11:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 2.4%
11:30am AUD Employment Change 10.3K -6.3K
11:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 5.3% 5.3%
1:00pm CNY CB Leading Index m/m -0.1%
Tentative CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 13.2%
8:00pm EUR Current Account 0.5B -7.5B
8:00pm EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
12:30am CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m 0.9% -0.8%
12:30am USD Building Permits 0.68M 0.68M
12:30am USD Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
12:30am USD Unemployment Claims 389K 399K
12:30am USD CPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%
12:30am USD Housing Starts 0.69M 0.69M
2:00am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 11.3 10.3
2:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -95B
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Trading Strategies
US Gold CFD: 1659
Day Trading
TradingLevels: The support on the MediumLevel is developing and a move to 1672 is likely, the resistances are still Subgroup2 SG2 1665|1672|1680
Elliott wave: There is a case for a ending diagonal triangle developing in the trend, however we must take into consideration that the price is simply being skew by the MediumLevel.
Local stock NCM has developed a small impulse wave (five waves) up off 30.00 (TL3) as support, TRY has a large triangle pattern above 4.00 MediumLevel
Silver: Has good support on 30.00, stops either under 30 or under the SG2 2972 (eg 2963) The 61.8% retracement level is 3200 and probable target, however you’re in Minor Group1 so you know the 31.00 is the first resistance, you can also use the sublevels if your trading shorter time frames.
Oil WTI: 100
Day Trading:
TradingLevels: The second retest is underway and the move down testing 100 require time to unfold, we need to see if it’s corrective or impulse, if corrective the price should stay above 99 the 618% retracement level, so basically it just a matter of observing the unfolding price pattern around the 100 to see if it becomes the support or resistance and then take the trade long or short from there once you can see it.
Elliott wave: The wave count on our chart has the move up from 98 to 102 as a wave two rally; however the pattern going up looks more like an impulse wave, this is why it’s important to just allow time for the current retesting price on the 100 play out. The US Indices will also have a guiding hand in Oil direction so the wave count for the SP500 should be observed too and just to add a little more the base metals tend to support Oil as well and they are looking positive as we can see in the US BHP
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.73+
US Nickel: Last: 8.81-
US Zinc: Last: 0.90+
US Aluminium Last: 0.97-
Copper CFD: 374
Technical Analysis
Copper continues its line up nicely in a wave three, its tussling with the 372 (SG2) as would be expected and looking at the waves in the structure up the perspective would see the prices at 400 the MediumLevel which of course is great for our long trades in the Materials sector and the AUD
Forex
US Dollar: 80.50
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: It appears from the impulse wave down we are going to see a larger corrective pattern at 80.00 TL8 Major TradingLevel
Elliott Wave: The move down from 82 is an impulse wave (five waves) so once its completed expect a abc rally then another five wave down to 80…
EURUSD 1.2850
TradingLevels: The old high is SG2 12872 zone is also the resistance again, because of the five waves up from the last low 12625 area, the US Dollar also has five waves down
Elliott wave: The Impulse wave up from 12625 last low can be Wave C of 4 or a new positive uptrend is starting, so the five waves up can be a Wave 1 if this is correct then expect and abc correction down into the 128 and lower before moving up, if the top is a Wave C of 4 then we will see an Impulse wave down making new lows under the 1.26
Day Trading: allow the current high to pull back into the 128 let’s see if it’s a abc or impulse pattern, then we will know the next trend direction, I would expect it to run up on the back of the next ECB meeting
Strategy, the trend is moving up, so trade the sublevels up, support on 1.2850 is the next step, if support is found then take part profit at 12865 and the rest at 12872, if the 12872 becomes support move back in and add on 12880 support trade to 129 exit
AUDUSD 1.04
TradingLevels: The price is still developing supports, the current support is in SG2 the 10372 zone however you need the 104 as support, there should be another push higher to 10472 area a new high at least
Elliott wave: The wave four on 104 is very messy, be patient and wait for definite support on 104
Day Trading: when 104 support is in place scale in and build the position through SG1 of 104 take at least 50% profit at the Midpoint then wait for support and then exit at 10472
The flipside if the price finds resistance at 10372 then the wave count is wrong.
Indices
"We are still waiting on potential reversal lower on S&P". And if we take a look once again on the 4h chart, we can see that the upward move is just awful, full of overlaps within parallel trend lines. Clearly, a recovery is running out of strength, so we must be prepared for potential bearish reversal but before that occurs; prices can still test higher resistance.
Dow Jones CFD 12,550
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: prices are edging higher in the impulse wave up and a new high should be made. The price now needs to stay above the 12400 otherwise the bias would change from positive to negative and sure there are prices above the 12400 that can create a negative bias but the 12400 is the main one as it’s the 618% retracement level of the impulse wave up from 12300, I have taken the 618 from the 12600 allowing for a new high to complete the structure
Elliott wave: The impulse wave that we have been observing from the 12300 is now in its fifth wave, so we can expect weakness from any new high under the 12600 such as SG2 12572|12580
Day Trading: Allow a session for wave four to complete and then find support back above 12500 for a the next long trade
S&P500 CFD: 1305
TradingLevels: The price is back above 1300 this is a positive, however its still only part of the dance across the floor 1300, expect he first sublevel of SG1 1310 to be the resistance which will look to retest 1300 checking for support?
Elliott Wave: The four chart shows the ending triangle, on the flip side the top of group1 can cause this type of resistance, so just keep this in mind and also include the tradinglevels, that is allow the price time to vibrate at 1300 for a week as it’s still early days at this number
Day Trading: a small retest of 1300 from the 1305/8 or even 1310 and finding support on 1300 can offer the base for the upside but you will need to read that play as it unfolds
FTSE 100 CFD: 5670
TradingLevels: The price is creeping back above the 5700 I still like the 5772 5800 target, the next ECB meeting is the important timing element, I can’t remember off the top of my head when that is, but I will check today, but that is part of the reason for the trend up
Current support is the SG2 5672 zone.
Elliott wave: Once the wave four correction at 5700 is completed then wave five up. The 5720 (72) is a subtle resistance and the 5772 and 5800 are then more real resistance and target points
Day Trading: the SG1 above 5700 is where to scale in, the 72 – 5720 is the pivot and the 5730 as retested support is the lift off point for the 5772 target, the midpoint will also experience supply
SPI CFD 4240
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Support on 4200 is in place the SG2 4265|4272|4280 is the resistance the 4272 is the key price point, there is also an overhead trend line as resistance through this area. The 4300 is obviously a target, it is the top of MinorGroup1 and support on this level creates the break away from 4000 and puts the target at 4500. As Gann would say it’s the fourth time that the price would break through and this would be this time.
Elliott wave: Unsure of the wave count, however what I do know is that the waves up are impulse waves with corrective wave patterns to the downside so there is a trend established.
Day Trading: Continue to trade long using the sublevels, today you would need 4250 as support. Thursday can open higher and trade lower.
11:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 0.0%
11:30am AUD Home Loans m/m 1.1% 0.7%
Technical Analysis
The Dow, we have been observing the impulse wave (five waves) up from 12300 which should be about completed, yes it can push higher to complete the five waves into 12,600 but expect some weakness now that the five waves are nearly finished, that said the trend is up and only if the price trades below 12,400 can we call in a negative bias.
These days the US doesn’t affect the local ASX as much as it did in regards to the general trend, it does have an impact day to day as it’s the last closing price and yes financial events send waves around the globe and more so these days, especially when markets have lost their identities in fear or greed. So we are currently paying more attention to copper and the Shanghai, copper should continue to move up to 400 it will however correct in SG2 zone first we can see US BHP moving up nicely so the Materials sector is driving our ASX, the local banks are over exposed the local property market that is their weakness, so they aren’t going to be much help in this uptrend, as its normally the finance sector that’s leads up from a previous down trend and CBA is not doing that. Any way I reckon it’s the Shanghai market that we need to observe the most and if the price can find support on the 2300 the top of Group1 then that’s the supporting factor for long trade in Resources
Weekly Bullish Cycle, Thursday opening higher and trading lower, if this is the case and the price does trade lower in the afternoon then look at the volume, if the price is moving down and the volume is diminishing then this it’s the best place to buy in the week with Thursday Opening the best place to sell in the week, however we should look to scale in around this timing, such as adding to positions on Friday morning and afternoon if the price is up and the volume is up with a stronger Friday closing is best, then profit taking Tue morning and Wed afternoon, you can also use other countries to hedge to lessen the risk etc.
Trading Quote
Success seems to be connected with action.
Successful people keep moving.
They make mistakes, but they don't quit.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD CPI q/q 0.4% 0.4%
11:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 2.4%
11:30am AUD Employment Change 10.3K -6.3K
11:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 5.3% 5.3%
1:00pm CNY CB Leading Index m/m -0.1%
Tentative CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 13.2%
8:00pm EUR Current Account 0.5B -7.5B
8:00pm EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
12:30am CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m 0.9% -0.8%
12:30am USD Building Permits 0.68M 0.68M
12:30am USD Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
12:30am USD Unemployment Claims 389K 399K
12:30am USD CPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%
12:30am USD Housing Starts 0.69M 0.69M
2:00am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 11.3 10.3
2:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -95B
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Wednesday, 18 January 2012
Trading Education
To Watch Video on Technical Analysis Visit Us on Youtube http://youtu.be/aB337_YoZ-U
Description:
Trading Education From the TradingLounge including Technical Analysis, Trading Strategies, Day Trading, Elliott Wave, TradingLevels, Price Volume Action our Trading Education is Friendly and Affordable with 30 Years’ Experience with ASFL There is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
Trading Education
News
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. stocks gained Tuesday after strong economic data in the U.S., China and Germany fuelled optimism over the pace of global economic growth, setting up stock indexes for their highest close in nearly half a year.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1653
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Ok, now we wait for the price to unfold and find support on the MediumLevel 1650. The resistance as you can see is Subgroup2 SG2 1665|1672|1680
Elliott wave The pattern across above below and across 1650 will be a wave four then wave five up to 1672, wave four can get a little complicated, especially when wave two is simple. The alternation between wave structures and in this case corrective, simple then complex is a guide line rather than a rule, but if the wave three is the extended wave then wave four is normally complicated as the large amount of energy from wave three requires balancing and this is also a point for the bigger picture in gold meaning the all-time high in gold to the low on the 29/12/2011 if this is a wave four, then its too simple for a wave four so we should also consider a much larger wave four unfolding, not so much in price but time before pushing higher above 2000
Silver The 61.8% retracement level is 3200
Oil WTI: 100
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Any long trades off 100 require at least two retests of 100, this is important as there is a bearish Elliott count for this rally as a wave two rally. But above a Major level like this the bias will change from negative to positive and IF support is found that forms part of the set up for scaling in long
Elliott wave The 61.8% retracement level is the current high at 101 however another push higher is expected once the retest for support on 100 (TL1) plays out, this will be in line with metals and stock
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.71+
US Nickel: Last: 8.86+
US Zinc: Last: 0.90+
US Aluminium Last: 0.98+
Copper CFD: 367
Technical Analysis
Same - Copper is in an uptrend and should continue, sure it will corrected into and through SG2 365|372|380 and will most likely trade sideways, but the bias is positive and this means the AUSUSD ASX and Asia in general is positive Expect a smaller wave four to unfold from 372 to 365 or 360 the wave four of one lesser degree
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.30
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Now that the price is back down at 81 we have to expect a larger corrective pattern to unfold down towards the 80, but this is unclear to me, the US dollar can have sharp moves that are hard to track using Elliott, if the Euro develops support on 128 then the Dollar will be seeing a larger corrective pattern into 80
The Elliott pattern down from the high is in three waves abc but it can turn into five waves, the bounce off 81 being wave four, the wave four should be sideways and a new low eventually made under 81, if this is the case then a larger correction will unfold into 80 and the Euro will push higher above 128
Forex EURUSD 1.2730
TradingLevels: The 1.2720 is the main price point, use the sublevels SG1 Midpoint and SG2 while the price is reacting from the 128
Elliott wave: The move down in the dollar is currently three wave corrective, the same here with the Euro the move up to 128 is in three waves corrective, however it could turn into five waves. The current sell off from 128 is impulsive so expect a minimum of three swings abc
Day Trading : It about being on the right side of 1.2720 but the pressure is to the downside because of the reaction from 128 in an impulsive wave if this is the case then 12672 is the lower target
Forex AUDUSD 1.0380
TradingLevelsThe price is swinging across 104 its only in its second swing, early days yet before completion and developing support on 104 and anyway it can pull back further besides the current support SG2 10372 the supports are 10350 and 10330.
Elliott wave Nice long trade if you go the support off 103 and scaled in through SG1. The pattern now is correcting the trend up, the correction can be a wave four so it should be time consuming. The move down from the high appears impulsive so this is just the first of three swings the question is will after these three swings find support on 104 and if so scale in long through SG1 of 104
Day Trading : no real strategy while the price is correcting in three swings, best to scalp the sublevels while in the correction
Indices
Markets in Asia closed sharply higher in the last session after better than expected "China Q4 GDP" data that came out 8.9%. Nikkei was up 1.05%, HSI 3.24% and China even more than 4%. This of course is very positive for some currencies, such as Eur, Gbp, Cad, Aud which is one of the strongest at the moment. US dollar of course is trading lower, as commodity prices rallied, such as gold and oil, in-line with stocks.
Dow Jones CFD 12,520
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Now we are above the 12,500 and the price is working out the support at this level, once this is completed we can look higher to 12650 and the original target of 12772 12,800. In the meantime the support for testing is back at 12472 SG2 zone
Elliott wave An impulse wave higher from the 12300 has still more to unfold up, the corrective pattern above and eventually through and across 12500 is a wave four once completed the price should move higher
Day Trading : Allow a session for wave four to complete and then find support back above 12500 for a the next long trade
S&P500 CFD: 1298
TradingLevels: The 1300 is a MinorLevel (mTL3) it is also the top of Minor Group1 (+SG1 1330) and if support is found here then this opens the door for higher ground, there is technical resistance around the 1320 and the Elliott Count has a top here that requires consideration. When working with a level such as mTL3 1300 we also work with the levels on either side so in this case SG1 above and SG2 below, we can expect SG1 and SG2 to be the resistances and supports while the price is vibrating at 1300
Elliott wave Wave structure on the 15min cash market of the S&P500 also shows incomplete bullish pattern. Now in wave four of an impulse, so more upside in view
Day Trading : Expect corrective reaction patterns at 1300. Counting five waves up from the last low support 290. No strategy while at the early stages of 1300
FTSE 100 CFD: 5670
TradingLevelsI would expect the price to find support in SG2 5680|5672|5665 even though the support is at 5650 the Midpoint. If and when the price climbs back above 5700 as support trade long and scale in through SG1 of 5700
Elliott wave Once the wave four correction at 5700 is completed then wave five up. The 5720 (72) is a subtle resistance and the 5772 and 5800 are then more real resistance and target points
Day Trading : Trade long IF 5700 becomes support again and use SG1 to build the trade
SPI CFD 4200
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels When 420 develops are support trade long through SG1 building the trade
Elliott wave The wave count is much like the AUD and it has a bullish and bearish count, the support on 4200 is a step in the right direction however it’s the support on 4300 the top of Minor Group1 that is key to a truly bullish market
Day Trading : Allow the swings at 4200 to settle then when the 4200 becomes the support then trade long. Use SG1 to build the trade
Technical Analysis
The China Q4 GDP gave markets a boost up and in most cases through their resistances
in line with most of the wave counts.
Markets are now dancing on and across their resistance levels once the dance is done look for support and trade short term long, the correctional dance in most cases is a small wave four, so when the wave moves up and completes a larger corrective pattern will occur
The only conflicting wave counts is the AUDUSD and US Indices, the first point I must point out is that the trends are up, however the Elliott count for the US Indices is for a Major top looming at a very rough guess the 12650 to 12800 for the Dow but the AUDUSD has a more bullish case, so one of them is wrong as the AUDUSD and Dow/SP500 move together. Like I said the trend is up and there is no evidence of a move down in US Indices. Anyway we will continue to monitor this aspect.
Trading Education Quote
Trading's only real secret is... The best loser is the long-term winner - Phantom of the Pits
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
10:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -8.3%
11:30am AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 2.3% -0.7%
3:30pm JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m -2.4% -2.6%
8:00pm EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.94B -1.08B
8:30pm GBP Claimant Count Change 8.2K 3.0K
8:30pm GBP Unemployment Rate 8.3% 8.3%
8:30pm GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.0% 2.0%
9:00pm CHF ZEW Economic Expectations -72.0
12:30am USD PPI m/m 0.1% 0.3%
12:30am USD Core PPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
1:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 27.3B 4.8B
1:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.2% 77.8%
1:15am USD Industrial Production m/m 0.5% -0.2%
1:30am USD FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
2:00am USD NAHB Housing Market Index 22 21
2:30am CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
2:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 5.0M
3:15am CAD BOC Press Conference
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
Description:
Trading Education From the TradingLounge including Technical Analysis, Trading Strategies, Day Trading, Elliott Wave, TradingLevels, Price Volume Action our Trading Education is Friendly and Affordable with 30 Years’ Experience with ASFL There is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
Trading Education
News
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. stocks gained Tuesday after strong economic data in the U.S., China and Germany fuelled optimism over the pace of global economic growth, setting up stock indexes for their highest close in nearly half a year.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1653
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Ok, now we wait for the price to unfold and find support on the MediumLevel 1650. The resistance as you can see is Subgroup2 SG2 1665|1672|1680
Elliott wave The pattern across above below and across 1650 will be a wave four then wave five up to 1672, wave four can get a little complicated, especially when wave two is simple. The alternation between wave structures and in this case corrective, simple then complex is a guide line rather than a rule, but if the wave three is the extended wave then wave four is normally complicated as the large amount of energy from wave three requires balancing and this is also a point for the bigger picture in gold meaning the all-time high in gold to the low on the 29/12/2011 if this is a wave four, then its too simple for a wave four so we should also consider a much larger wave four unfolding, not so much in price but time before pushing higher above 2000
Silver The 61.8% retracement level is 3200
Oil WTI: 100
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Any long trades off 100 require at least two retests of 100, this is important as there is a bearish Elliott count for this rally as a wave two rally. But above a Major level like this the bias will change from negative to positive and IF support is found that forms part of the set up for scaling in long
Elliott wave The 61.8% retracement level is the current high at 101 however another push higher is expected once the retest for support on 100 (TL1) plays out, this will be in line with metals and stock
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.71+
US Nickel: Last: 8.86+
US Zinc: Last: 0.90+
US Aluminium Last: 0.98+
Copper CFD: 367
Technical Analysis
Same - Copper is in an uptrend and should continue, sure it will corrected into and through SG2 365|372|380 and will most likely trade sideways, but the bias is positive and this means the AUSUSD ASX and Asia in general is positive Expect a smaller wave four to unfold from 372 to 365 or 360 the wave four of one lesser degree
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.30
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Now that the price is back down at 81 we have to expect a larger corrective pattern to unfold down towards the 80, but this is unclear to me, the US dollar can have sharp moves that are hard to track using Elliott, if the Euro develops support on 128 then the Dollar will be seeing a larger corrective pattern into 80
The Elliott pattern down from the high is in three waves abc but it can turn into five waves, the bounce off 81 being wave four, the wave four should be sideways and a new low eventually made under 81, if this is the case then a larger correction will unfold into 80 and the Euro will push higher above 128
Forex EURUSD 1.2730
TradingLevels: The 1.2720 is the main price point, use the sublevels SG1 Midpoint and SG2 while the price is reacting from the 128
Elliott wave: The move down in the dollar is currently three wave corrective, the same here with the Euro the move up to 128 is in three waves corrective, however it could turn into five waves. The current sell off from 128 is impulsive so expect a minimum of three swings abc
Day Trading : It about being on the right side of 1.2720 but the pressure is to the downside because of the reaction from 128 in an impulsive wave if this is the case then 12672 is the lower target
Forex AUDUSD 1.0380
TradingLevelsThe price is swinging across 104 its only in its second swing, early days yet before completion and developing support on 104 and anyway it can pull back further besides the current support SG2 10372 the supports are 10350 and 10330.
Elliott wave Nice long trade if you go the support off 103 and scaled in through SG1. The pattern now is correcting the trend up, the correction can be a wave four so it should be time consuming. The move down from the high appears impulsive so this is just the first of three swings the question is will after these three swings find support on 104 and if so scale in long through SG1 of 104
Day Trading : no real strategy while the price is correcting in three swings, best to scalp the sublevels while in the correction
Indices
Markets in Asia closed sharply higher in the last session after better than expected "China Q4 GDP" data that came out 8.9%. Nikkei was up 1.05%, HSI 3.24% and China even more than 4%. This of course is very positive for some currencies, such as Eur, Gbp, Cad, Aud which is one of the strongest at the moment. US dollar of course is trading lower, as commodity prices rallied, such as gold and oil, in-line with stocks.
Dow Jones CFD 12,520
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Now we are above the 12,500 and the price is working out the support at this level, once this is completed we can look higher to 12650 and the original target of 12772 12,800. In the meantime the support for testing is back at 12472 SG2 zone
Elliott wave An impulse wave higher from the 12300 has still more to unfold up, the corrective pattern above and eventually through and across 12500 is a wave four once completed the price should move higher
Day Trading : Allow a session for wave four to complete and then find support back above 12500 for a the next long trade
S&P500 CFD: 1298
TradingLevels: The 1300 is a MinorLevel (mTL3) it is also the top of Minor Group1 (+SG1 1330) and if support is found here then this opens the door for higher ground, there is technical resistance around the 1320 and the Elliott Count has a top here that requires consideration. When working with a level such as mTL3 1300 we also work with the levels on either side so in this case SG1 above and SG2 below, we can expect SG1 and SG2 to be the resistances and supports while the price is vibrating at 1300
Elliott wave Wave structure on the 15min cash market of the S&P500 also shows incomplete bullish pattern. Now in wave four of an impulse, so more upside in view
Day Trading : Expect corrective reaction patterns at 1300. Counting five waves up from the last low support 290. No strategy while at the early stages of 1300
FTSE 100 CFD: 5670
TradingLevelsI would expect the price to find support in SG2 5680|5672|5665 even though the support is at 5650 the Midpoint. If and when the price climbs back above 5700 as support trade long and scale in through SG1 of 5700
Elliott wave Once the wave four correction at 5700 is completed then wave five up. The 5720 (72) is a subtle resistance and the 5772 and 5800 are then more real resistance and target points
Day Trading : Trade long IF 5700 becomes support again and use SG1 to build the trade
SPI CFD 4200
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels When 420 develops are support trade long through SG1 building the trade
Elliott wave The wave count is much like the AUD and it has a bullish and bearish count, the support on 4200 is a step in the right direction however it’s the support on 4300 the top of Minor Group1 that is key to a truly bullish market
Day Trading : Allow the swings at 4200 to settle then when the 4200 becomes the support then trade long. Use SG1 to build the trade
Technical Analysis
The China Q4 GDP gave markets a boost up and in most cases through their resistances
in line with most of the wave counts.
Markets are now dancing on and across their resistance levels once the dance is done look for support and trade short term long, the correctional dance in most cases is a small wave four, so when the wave moves up and completes a larger corrective pattern will occur
The only conflicting wave counts is the AUDUSD and US Indices, the first point I must point out is that the trends are up, however the Elliott count for the US Indices is for a Major top looming at a very rough guess the 12650 to 12800 for the Dow but the AUDUSD has a more bullish case, so one of them is wrong as the AUDUSD and Dow/SP500 move together. Like I said the trend is up and there is no evidence of a move down in US Indices. Anyway we will continue to monitor this aspect.
Trading Education Quote
Trading's only real secret is... The best loser is the long-term winner - Phantom of the Pits
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
10:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -8.3%
11:30am AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 2.3% -0.7%
3:30pm JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m -2.4% -2.6%
8:00pm EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.94B -1.08B
8:30pm GBP Claimant Count Change 8.2K 3.0K
8:30pm GBP Unemployment Rate 8.3% 8.3%
8:30pm GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.0% 2.0%
9:00pm CHF ZEW Economic Expectations -72.0
12:30am USD PPI m/m 0.1% 0.3%
12:30am USD Core PPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
1:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 27.3B 4.8B
1:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.2% 77.8%
1:15am USD Industrial Production m/m 0.5% -0.2%
1:30am USD FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
2:00am USD NAHB Housing Market Index 22 21
2:30am CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
2:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 5.0M
3:15am CAD BOC Press Conference
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
Tuesday, 17 January 2012
Technical Analysis
To Watch Video on Technical Analysis Visit Us on Youtube http://youtu.be/W-dwglBCU10
Description:
Technical Analysis
TradingLounge’s Peter Mathers Technical Analyst outlines Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies using the Tradinglevels Pattern Recognition Elliott Wave as Trading Education.
This Day Trading report is only the lead in for the actual mechanical Robo Day Trading for the Australia, US and UK Markets, Forex Elliott Wave Technical Analysis is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
CFD Trading Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1643
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading: The price is retesting 1650 MediumLevel, our Elliott count is expecting it to roll over down, but we should not jump the gun on a short until the evidence is in place.
Also the move down from the 1662 high down to the low 1625, is not a clear five waves (impulse) it’s more like a three wave corrective pattern, if that is the case then the price should climb above 1650 and if that is the case then a long trade would be created off the 1650 support. Any way we need to wait for a set up
Elliott wave: Gold fell nicely into 1625 projected area that we highlighted on Friday. But despite that fall, we are still monitoring a wave structure that will send the market lower. We are talking about an expanded flat formation with wave c) underway, which should find a peak in the next two sessions, ideally around 1648-1652 area.
Silver If the 2972 becomes the retested resistance then short, if the 30.00 becomes support then scale in long through SG1
Oil WTI: 99.65
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading: The technical resistance is 100 and the supply (sellers) 101, The 101 is also the 61.8% rally target. We need to allow this to play out and we need to see the US market stock market e.g. the Dow play out at 12500. Do not go long on Oil while the price is retesting resistance as this is a negative bias
Elliott wave: On our chart the Elliott count is label for further down side, with the price rolling over from the 100, however also be aware of the ABC pattern, that is from the high around the 6th Jan 103.50 to the low around the 13th 98 can be counted as an abc corrective pattern this is why it’s important to allow this pattern to play out, the real short trade if any is much further out there in time, essentially five waves down then three waves back up then the short, we only have three down at the moment
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.66+
US Nickel: Last: 8.84-
US Zinc: Last: 0.88+
US Aluminium Last: 0.95+
Copper CFD: 367
Technical Analysis:
Copper is in an uptrend and should continue, sure it will corrected into and through SG2 365|372|380 and will most likely trade sideways, but the bias is positive and this means the AUSUSD ASX and Asia in general is positive
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.62
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading: the dollar is still reacting to the MinorLevel 82.00 (mTL2), the weak spot is it trading under SG2 8172 as this creates the next level down at the Midpoint 8150, this also means the Euro will hold up and stocks can move higher, so the 8172 is a line in the sand you can judge other market and also be on the right side of this price point. This of course helps the AUD up
Forex EURUSD 1.2663
Technical Analysis: Support on 1.2672 puts the price at 1.27 – 1.2720 or even high as 1.2772 before rolling over down. While the US Dollar is under 8172 this would be the case, so what that too. And short under the 12672 and then 65 as retested
Elliott wave: The price did not drop from the 1.2672 and 1.2650 as expected and in fact now find these numbers as support. We are considering the rise as a corrective rally
Day Trading us the 1.2672 as support to get to 1.27 exit and once and if support is creates on 1.27 scale in expect resistance at 1.2720 so this as support is required for higher group, the Dollar would be bouncing of the Midpoint 8150 be then so the 8150 would also be important as support or resistance. And short under the 12672 and then 65 as retested
Forex AUDUSD 1.0316
TradingLevels: The price pattern is slowly edging forwards in developing support on 103
Elliott wave: Once retested support is established look for a long trade to 104
Trading Strategies: Support SG2 10272 you need 103 as support, tested support then seeing the price build through SG1 10310|10320|10330 you know support on top of SG1 10330 creates the higher ground. The current corrective pattern at this 103 can get bigger, because copper should correct somewhat now, however there is talk of China putting money into their system this week, the Shanghai also needs to stay above 2200, also the dollar being under the 8172 is supportive for the aud. But in the end it’s the retests into 103 that you need to observe and work the levels in SG1 especially the support on 10330, if this does happen new highs should be made, but there will be resistances at the Midpoint 10350 and SG2 65,72,80
FTSE 100 CFD: 5641
Day Trading: Subgroup2 (SG2) 5665|5672|5680 is the resistance and supply
Elliott wave: Unsure, however any longs need to have 5672 as support
Trading Strategies: Only go long if 5672 is the support. When the price moves up to this level SG2 the price will react, so give it time to swing around for a while before thinking going long or short.
SPI CFD 4160
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Intraday, support on 4172 is required for long trades, you can take on higher risk is you like and buy above 4150 with stops at 4143 as a move under this stop would have created a corrective rally with further downside to come.
Elliott wave: Still looking at this larger corrective pattern as just that corrective, but the 4150 would really need to hold now otherwise a larger degree of pattern would be unfolding and this opens a more bearish window
Day Trading: The same as yesterday, look for support in SG2. Work any trade from SG2 4165|4172|4180 the 4172 is the important price point. Remember the Shanghai really need to remain above the 2200 and also observe the AUDUSD to see if it can develop support on the 103 this would be help full.
Technical Analysis
US Stocks and Bonds were closed last night, so we can look at the Dax and UK, such as UK BHP being positive and steady, the US Dollar being under 8172 this should reflect back here to some degree of our markets being steady today
The Shanghai market was also down yesterday, but as long as it stays above the 2200 we can consider the low there still forming, but we must trade lightly in all markets at the moment as the US market are still facing resistances, the Dow 12500 SP500 1300 this places a negative bias, the only real positive are the base metals and the possibility on the China market form this current low, but be aware this forming of a low can disappear quickly.
The ASX200 to be positive needs to build on 4200 as support if it slips under the 4150 then it’s not a positive look for this market, any way volumes are light and we should be trading smaller position sizes and short trading ranges
Another weakness in the air is the US reporting this week, as there are something like 40 big companies reporting earns and they are not looking good based on the amount of current downgrading last week, this can be the catalyst for the Dow to rollover under the 12500, so don’t commit to the long side too much
The ASX Q4 2011 Activities / Production Report are out this week you can get them from the link at the top of this page (link to Dow Jones News) look for DJ Asia-Pacific Calendar.
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Trading Quote
You may not understand it fully right now but the market is always right.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:00am NZD NZIER Business Confidence 25
10:00am USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
10:50am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -0.3% 0.6%
17th-20th GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence 41 40
1:00pm CNY GDP q/y 8.8% 9.1%
1:00pm CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 24.2% 24.5%
1:00pm CNY Industrial Production y/y 12.3% 12.4%
1:00pm CNY NBS Press Conference
1:00pm CNY Retail Sales y/y 17.2% 17.3%
8:30pm GBP CPI y/y 4.2% 4.8%
8:30pm GBP RPI y/y 4.7% 5.2%
8:30pm GBP Core CPI y/y 3.0% 3.2%
8:30pm GBP DCLG HPI y/y 0.2% -0.4%
9:00pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -49.5 -53.8
9:00pm EUR CPI y/y 2.8% 2.8%
9:00pm EUR Core CPI y/y 1.6% 1.6%
9:00pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -48.7 -54.1
9:00pm GBP BOE Gov King Speaks
9:00pm GBP CB Leading Index m/m -0.4%
12:30am CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 6.97B 2.03B
12:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 10.7 9.5
1:00am CAD BOC Rate Statement
1:00am CAD Overnight Rate 1.00% 1.00%
5:30am GBP MPC Member Posen Speaks
Description:
Technical Analysis
TradingLounge’s Peter Mathers Technical Analyst outlines Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies using the Tradinglevels Pattern Recognition Elliott Wave as Trading Education.
This Day Trading report is only the lead in for the actual mechanical Robo Day Trading for the Australia, US and UK Markets, Forex Elliott Wave Technical Analysis is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
CFD Trading Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1643
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading: The price is retesting 1650 MediumLevel, our Elliott count is expecting it to roll over down, but we should not jump the gun on a short until the evidence is in place.
Also the move down from the 1662 high down to the low 1625, is not a clear five waves (impulse) it’s more like a three wave corrective pattern, if that is the case then the price should climb above 1650 and if that is the case then a long trade would be created off the 1650 support. Any way we need to wait for a set up
Elliott wave: Gold fell nicely into 1625 projected area that we highlighted on Friday. But despite that fall, we are still monitoring a wave structure that will send the market lower. We are talking about an expanded flat formation with wave c) underway, which should find a peak in the next two sessions, ideally around 1648-1652 area.
Silver If the 2972 becomes the retested resistance then short, if the 30.00 becomes support then scale in long through SG1
Oil WTI: 99.65
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading: The technical resistance is 100 and the supply (sellers) 101, The 101 is also the 61.8% rally target. We need to allow this to play out and we need to see the US market stock market e.g. the Dow play out at 12500. Do not go long on Oil while the price is retesting resistance as this is a negative bias
Elliott wave: On our chart the Elliott count is label for further down side, with the price rolling over from the 100, however also be aware of the ABC pattern, that is from the high around the 6th Jan 103.50 to the low around the 13th 98 can be counted as an abc corrective pattern this is why it’s important to allow this pattern to play out, the real short trade if any is much further out there in time, essentially five waves down then three waves back up then the short, we only have three down at the moment
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.66+
US Nickel: Last: 8.84-
US Zinc: Last: 0.88+
US Aluminium Last: 0.95+
Copper CFD: 367
Technical Analysis:
Copper is in an uptrend and should continue, sure it will corrected into and through SG2 365|372|380 and will most likely trade sideways, but the bias is positive and this means the AUSUSD ASX and Asia in general is positive
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.62
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading: the dollar is still reacting to the MinorLevel 82.00 (mTL2), the weak spot is it trading under SG2 8172 as this creates the next level down at the Midpoint 8150, this also means the Euro will hold up and stocks can move higher, so the 8172 is a line in the sand you can judge other market and also be on the right side of this price point. This of course helps the AUD up
Forex EURUSD 1.2663
Technical Analysis: Support on 1.2672 puts the price at 1.27 – 1.2720 or even high as 1.2772 before rolling over down. While the US Dollar is under 8172 this would be the case, so what that too. And short under the 12672 and then 65 as retested
Elliott wave: The price did not drop from the 1.2672 and 1.2650 as expected and in fact now find these numbers as support. We are considering the rise as a corrective rally
Day Trading us the 1.2672 as support to get to 1.27 exit and once and if support is creates on 1.27 scale in expect resistance at 1.2720 so this as support is required for higher group, the Dollar would be bouncing of the Midpoint 8150 be then so the 8150 would also be important as support or resistance. And short under the 12672 and then 65 as retested
Forex AUDUSD 1.0316
TradingLevels: The price pattern is slowly edging forwards in developing support on 103
Elliott wave: Once retested support is established look for a long trade to 104
Trading Strategies: Support SG2 10272 you need 103 as support, tested support then seeing the price build through SG1 10310|10320|10330 you know support on top of SG1 10330 creates the higher ground. The current corrective pattern at this 103 can get bigger, because copper should correct somewhat now, however there is talk of China putting money into their system this week, the Shanghai also needs to stay above 2200, also the dollar being under the 8172 is supportive for the aud. But in the end it’s the retests into 103 that you need to observe and work the levels in SG1 especially the support on 10330, if this does happen new highs should be made, but there will be resistances at the Midpoint 10350 and SG2 65,72,80
FTSE 100 CFD: 5641
Day Trading: Subgroup2 (SG2) 5665|5672|5680 is the resistance and supply
Elliott wave: Unsure, however any longs need to have 5672 as support
Trading Strategies: Only go long if 5672 is the support. When the price moves up to this level SG2 the price will react, so give it time to swing around for a while before thinking going long or short.
SPI CFD 4160
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Intraday, support on 4172 is required for long trades, you can take on higher risk is you like and buy above 4150 with stops at 4143 as a move under this stop would have created a corrective rally with further downside to come.
Elliott wave: Still looking at this larger corrective pattern as just that corrective, but the 4150 would really need to hold now otherwise a larger degree of pattern would be unfolding and this opens a more bearish window
Day Trading: The same as yesterday, look for support in SG2. Work any trade from SG2 4165|4172|4180 the 4172 is the important price point. Remember the Shanghai really need to remain above the 2200 and also observe the AUDUSD to see if it can develop support on the 103 this would be help full.
Technical Analysis
US Stocks and Bonds were closed last night, so we can look at the Dax and UK, such as UK BHP being positive and steady, the US Dollar being under 8172 this should reflect back here to some degree of our markets being steady today
The Shanghai market was also down yesterday, but as long as it stays above the 2200 we can consider the low there still forming, but we must trade lightly in all markets at the moment as the US market are still facing resistances, the Dow 12500 SP500 1300 this places a negative bias, the only real positive are the base metals and the possibility on the China market form this current low, but be aware this forming of a low can disappear quickly.
The ASX200 to be positive needs to build on 4200 as support if it slips under the 4150 then it’s not a positive look for this market, any way volumes are light and we should be trading smaller position sizes and short trading ranges
Another weakness in the air is the US reporting this week, as there are something like 40 big companies reporting earns and they are not looking good based on the amount of current downgrading last week, this can be the catalyst for the Dow to rollover under the 12500, so don’t commit to the long side too much
The ASX Q4 2011 Activities / Production Report are out this week you can get them from the link at the top of this page (link to Dow Jones News) look for DJ Asia-Pacific Calendar.
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Trading Quote
You may not understand it fully right now but the market is always right.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:00am NZD NZIER Business Confidence 25
10:00am USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
10:50am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -0.3% 0.6%
17th-20th GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence 41 40
1:00pm CNY GDP q/y 8.8% 9.1%
1:00pm CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 24.2% 24.5%
1:00pm CNY Industrial Production y/y 12.3% 12.4%
1:00pm CNY NBS Press Conference
1:00pm CNY Retail Sales y/y 17.2% 17.3%
8:30pm GBP CPI y/y 4.2% 4.8%
8:30pm GBP RPI y/y 4.7% 5.2%
8:30pm GBP Core CPI y/y 3.0% 3.2%
8:30pm GBP DCLG HPI y/y 0.2% -0.4%
9:00pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -49.5 -53.8
9:00pm EUR CPI y/y 2.8% 2.8%
9:00pm EUR Core CPI y/y 1.6% 1.6%
9:00pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -48.7 -54.1
9:00pm GBP BOE Gov King Speaks
9:00pm GBP CB Leading Index m/m -0.4%
12:30am CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 6.97B 2.03B
12:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 10.7 9.5
1:00am CAD BOC Rate Statement
1:00am CAD Overnight Rate 1.00% 1.00%
5:30am GBP MPC Member Posen Speaks
Monday, 16 January 2012
Day Trading
To Watch Video on Day Trading Visit Us on Youtube http://youtu.be/GdlJneH-tig
Description:
Day Trading and Day Trading Strategies from the TradingLounge Education.
This Technical Analysis video is the basis for setting up our Mechanical Day Trading Methods called Robo, the Robo trades are for the AU, UK and USA , if you require Day Trades for these markets or further Trading Education in Technical Analysis such as Elliott Wave or TradingLevels then visit the TradingLounge for a Free Trial http://tradinglounge.com.au
News
International companies trading in New York ended lower Friday as investors anticipated credit downgrades of a number of euro-zone countries that were announced after the close
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1639
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The Elliott wave count up from 1520 to the current high can be counted in Elliott wave theory in three different ways, so we should treat our opinions lightly. The first aspect is while the price is above 1600 its supported and would only short it the 1600 was the resistance. now that that is out of the way we can focus on the price action at the MediumLevel 1650, we also understand that sublevel supports are in group1 SG1 1610|1620|1630 so the expected corrective behaviour at the 1650 would naturally find supports in SG1 as its doing now, there would also be a series of retests on 1650, after about three to five swings we would simply see the 1650 MediumLevel price as support or resistance and would trade from that. We should also take the base metals on board and we use copper for this and copper is trending up and while that is the case, gold is likely to stay not only above 1600 but 1620 and retest 1650
Elliott wave: There are two way you can count the 1520 move up, two in a corrective pattern and one in an positive impulse wave, so we should tread lightly using Elliott in this degree, we should only use it in the sublevel environment for the time being. As Gold is banging its head against resistance 1650 so is the Dow at 12500, we can see the Dow developing overlapping wave structures – weakness
At a guess I would expect the corrective patterns in Gold and US Indices to expand, so keep trading ranges within sublevels degree until the patterns for both of these markets become clear, you don’t would to keep guessing the direction while we are in a corrective pattern that we don’t understand with enough certainty, the time will come to trade, patience.
There is one point of weakness that you can watch and that is Oil as oil is likely to drag the US Indices down, if the retest of 100 TL1 fails and rolls over the US Indices will feel the pressure. There is of course a holiday in the US on Monday.
Sliver While the price is above SG2 2880|2872|2865 the market is supported and you know the price is unfolding across the Major TradingLevel TL3 | 30.00 and that we don’t trade until it’s finished.Oil WTI: 99.10
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Bias changes to bearish now that the price is under 100 TL1 and we are looking at a series of retests of TL1
98.00 (mTL8) is the first MinorLevel under 100 and is the first support, the next MinorLevel is 95 (mTL5 and also a Midpoint between the 100 and 90, the next important level of the next smaller degree is sublevel 96.50, use all of these as support and resistance for entries and stops. If and once the price is under 95 as resistance then the price is part of the 90 story and you need to understand the levels above and below 90.00 MediumLevel (ML9)
Elliott wave: The Elliott wave count is down for Oil, so the series of retests of TL1 is the key for shorts. If you can match the wave count with the retests it will help your entries and stops or you may prefer to use this to trade energy sector stocks, also use the levels and the volume to confirm the price behaviour Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.63
US Nickel: Last: 8.89-
US Zinc: Last: 0.88-
US Aluminium Last: 0.94-Copper CFD: 363
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: 350 as resistance and the base metals are bias bearish, this would also reflect in other markets previous metals, currencies and stock / materials, so it’s a simple way of managing risk and direction.
That said the trend up is still displaying strength, the next resistances are SG2 365|372|380 with the 72 being the important price point, support on this creates the next level 400 MediumLevel ML4.
Expect corrective price action at SG2 which in turn will show up in other markets i.e. ASX/ AUDUSD…
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.70
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: the ABC correction is completed and the move up is well underway, if you got from 81.00 SG1 to 82.00 well done.
Expect the normal tradinglevels Classic pattern to unfold across 81.00. That is, the reaction at 81, then searching for support SG2 or the Midpoint, then a push above 81.00, creating the first high above this level. Then a larger ABC Zigzag 5-3-5 correction across 81.00, then a move to 82.00 SG1
Forex EURUSD 1.2830
TradingLevels: The Euro and SP500 are out of whack so keep an eye on that as they we pull together again. The current move up should spend time at 128, if it does find support after three swings then the target would be 12872 SG2
Elliott wave: Euro is falling sharply, definitely forming an impulsive decline with prices now headed below 1.2660 and ideally into 1.2600 zone. At the moment it’s hard to apply the wave count on that sharp move, but we know that any small bounce will be corrective and short lived
Technical Analysis: Scalping - Short using 1.2772 as the retested resistance, add on the retest of 1.2665 both of these price points are SG2, cover part position at 1.2650 as the price should bounce, look to add again as the Midpoint 12650 experiences the retest, exit at 12630.
Forex AUDUSD 1.0323
TradingLevels: AUD is dragging its feet against copper to the upside, more in line with the SP500. But the AUD is slowly establishing support but it’s not there yet, if it does find support, scale in through SG1 10310|10320|10330
Elliott wave: Once retested support is established look for a long trade to 104
Trading Strategies : Scale in using SG1 the sublevels
Indices Resistance 12500 Dow / SP500 1300 IF they become support, then markets are positive, if supports are broken Dow 12272 / SP500 1272 then negative. Dow target 12,772 SG2 if support is found on 12,500
Dow Jones CFD 12,451
Technical Analysis US Holiday Monday
TradingLevels: The 12,300 and 12,272 are the supports and they are still is play, at this stage the sharp move down is part of a corrective pattern, a move through support 12,272 then we will start to gather evidence of the larger move down and a top being in play, it was our thoughts to have the high in place last week and that may be the case, but wave structure and pricing evidence is still required, the catalyst for pulling the price down has been the European rating cuts, however it’s the Oil being under 100 that is the weight and we are seeing divergence in that.
Elliott waveThe intraday pattern from the 10th to now appears to be an ABC corrective pattern, until proven otherwise expect a move higher through 12500
Trading Strategies : Intraday wait for a retest to check support into 12400 SG1
S&P500 CFD: 1293
TradingLevels: As long as the SG2 1265|1272|1280 remain the support the market is positive.
Elliott wave: The pattern below 1300 appears corrective so still expecting a move higher through 1300. That said there is growing weakness in the trend up and we are searching for the top and the beginnings of a larger move down
Trading Strategies : For Scalping you can work the degree down from the sublevels, that is the MicroLevels, as an example, the MicroLevels between 1280 and 1290 would Group1 1281|1282|1283 the Midpoint 1285 and Group2 1286.501287.20|1288
FTSE 100 CFD: 5641
TradingLevels: Now Subgroup2 (SG2) 5665|5672|5680 is the resistance
Elliott wave: Line the pattern up with the SP500
Trading Strategies : Only go long if 5672 is the support. When the price moves up to this level SG2 the price will react, so give it time to swing around for a while before thinking going long or short.
SPI CFD 4186
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: In the Minor degree the price should have completed its corrective pattern at 4200, the safest longs would be 4200 as support, but you have to wait for this move.
Elliott wave: larger corrective pattern across 4200 once completed which it can be now, should push up in line with the audusd
Day Trading: Work any trade from SG2 4165|4172|4180 the 4172 is the important price point. The current price is 41786 I would think the 4172 SG2 would be retested; I would simply wait and see if the 4172 becomes the support or the resistance, you can expect more corrective price action under the 4200. Keep an eye on copper and shanghai in the afternoon session as the lead will come from thereTechnical Analysis Summery
The Australian Dollar and the ASX200 are enjoying the lift in base metals and this looks set to continue this week.
The Shanghai has been forming a low and even though it should pull back down from the 2300 it should find support above 2200 and then push up lifting the whole Asian region, so many of our local stock should push higher, any stock sitting on a Major TradingLevel as support would be a good start for any long trades.US, the Dow is still under the 12,500 resistance but more importantly as support it’s above the 12,272 / 12,300, while its above this support we will call the pattern between 12500 and 12300 corrective with the view of pushing higher, if the 12500 develops as support then we can look at 12,800 and 13000, however there indications of weakness in the US and European markets in the general trend up, but as long as we know our supports we will work from that basis.
US weakness can come this week as 40 large companies put their earnings forward, so far many have been downgraded. The US has a holiday Monday
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Trading QuoteOne trade should never make or break your account.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD FPI m/m 0.2%
10:30am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m -0.1%
10:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m 5.7% -6.9%
10:50am JPY CGPI y/y 1.3% 1.7%
11:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -2.7%
11:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 0.0%
11:30am AUD Home Loans m/m 1.1% 0.7%
16th-17th NZD REINZ HPI m/m 1.1%
4:00pm JPY Household Confidence 38.9 38.1
6:00pm EUR German WPI m/m 0.3% 0.7%
7:15pm CHF PPI m/m -0.4% -0.8%
All Day USD Bank Holiday
12:30am CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 2.1% 3.3%
5:00am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Description:
Day Trading and Day Trading Strategies from the TradingLounge Education.
This Technical Analysis video is the basis for setting up our Mechanical Day Trading Methods called Robo, the Robo trades are for the AU, UK and USA , if you require Day Trades for these markets or further Trading Education in Technical Analysis such as Elliott Wave or TradingLevels then visit the TradingLounge for a Free Trial http://tradinglounge.com.au
News
International companies trading in New York ended lower Friday as investors anticipated credit downgrades of a number of euro-zone countries that were announced after the close
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1639
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The Elliott wave count up from 1520 to the current high can be counted in Elliott wave theory in three different ways, so we should treat our opinions lightly. The first aspect is while the price is above 1600 its supported and would only short it the 1600 was the resistance. now that that is out of the way we can focus on the price action at the MediumLevel 1650, we also understand that sublevel supports are in group1 SG1 1610|1620|1630 so the expected corrective behaviour at the 1650 would naturally find supports in SG1 as its doing now, there would also be a series of retests on 1650, after about three to five swings we would simply see the 1650 MediumLevel price as support or resistance and would trade from that. We should also take the base metals on board and we use copper for this and copper is trending up and while that is the case, gold is likely to stay not only above 1600 but 1620 and retest 1650
Elliott wave: There are two way you can count the 1520 move up, two in a corrective pattern and one in an positive impulse wave, so we should tread lightly using Elliott in this degree, we should only use it in the sublevel environment for the time being. As Gold is banging its head against resistance 1650 so is the Dow at 12500, we can see the Dow developing overlapping wave structures – weakness
At a guess I would expect the corrective patterns in Gold and US Indices to expand, so keep trading ranges within sublevels degree until the patterns for both of these markets become clear, you don’t would to keep guessing the direction while we are in a corrective pattern that we don’t understand with enough certainty, the time will come to trade, patience.
There is one point of weakness that you can watch and that is Oil as oil is likely to drag the US Indices down, if the retest of 100 TL1 fails and rolls over the US Indices will feel the pressure. There is of course a holiday in the US on Monday.
Sliver While the price is above SG2 2880|2872|2865 the market is supported and you know the price is unfolding across the Major TradingLevel TL3 | 30.00 and that we don’t trade until it’s finished.Oil WTI: 99.10
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Bias changes to bearish now that the price is under 100 TL1 and we are looking at a series of retests of TL1
98.00 (mTL8) is the first MinorLevel under 100 and is the first support, the next MinorLevel is 95 (mTL5 and also a Midpoint between the 100 and 90, the next important level of the next smaller degree is sublevel 96.50, use all of these as support and resistance for entries and stops. If and once the price is under 95 as resistance then the price is part of the 90 story and you need to understand the levels above and below 90.00 MediumLevel (ML9)
Elliott wave: The Elliott wave count is down for Oil, so the series of retests of TL1 is the key for shorts. If you can match the wave count with the retests it will help your entries and stops or you may prefer to use this to trade energy sector stocks, also use the levels and the volume to confirm the price behaviour Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.63
US Nickel: Last: 8.89-
US Zinc: Last: 0.88-
US Aluminium Last: 0.94-Copper CFD: 363
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: 350 as resistance and the base metals are bias bearish, this would also reflect in other markets previous metals, currencies and stock / materials, so it’s a simple way of managing risk and direction.
That said the trend up is still displaying strength, the next resistances are SG2 365|372|380 with the 72 being the important price point, support on this creates the next level 400 MediumLevel ML4.
Expect corrective price action at SG2 which in turn will show up in other markets i.e. ASX/ AUDUSD…
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.70
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: the ABC correction is completed and the move up is well underway, if you got from 81.00 SG1 to 82.00 well done.
Expect the normal tradinglevels Classic pattern to unfold across 81.00. That is, the reaction at 81, then searching for support SG2 or the Midpoint, then a push above 81.00, creating the first high above this level. Then a larger ABC Zigzag 5-3-5 correction across 81.00, then a move to 82.00 SG1
Forex EURUSD 1.2830
TradingLevels: The Euro and SP500 are out of whack so keep an eye on that as they we pull together again. The current move up should spend time at 128, if it does find support after three swings then the target would be 12872 SG2
Elliott wave: Euro is falling sharply, definitely forming an impulsive decline with prices now headed below 1.2660 and ideally into 1.2600 zone. At the moment it’s hard to apply the wave count on that sharp move, but we know that any small bounce will be corrective and short lived
Technical Analysis: Scalping - Short using 1.2772 as the retested resistance, add on the retest of 1.2665 both of these price points are SG2, cover part position at 1.2650 as the price should bounce, look to add again as the Midpoint 12650 experiences the retest, exit at 12630.
Forex AUDUSD 1.0323
TradingLevels: AUD is dragging its feet against copper to the upside, more in line with the SP500. But the AUD is slowly establishing support but it’s not there yet, if it does find support, scale in through SG1 10310|10320|10330
Elliott wave: Once retested support is established look for a long trade to 104
Trading Strategies : Scale in using SG1 the sublevels
Indices Resistance 12500 Dow / SP500 1300 IF they become support, then markets are positive, if supports are broken Dow 12272 / SP500 1272 then negative. Dow target 12,772 SG2 if support is found on 12,500
Dow Jones CFD 12,451
Technical Analysis US Holiday Monday
TradingLevels: The 12,300 and 12,272 are the supports and they are still is play, at this stage the sharp move down is part of a corrective pattern, a move through support 12,272 then we will start to gather evidence of the larger move down and a top being in play, it was our thoughts to have the high in place last week and that may be the case, but wave structure and pricing evidence is still required, the catalyst for pulling the price down has been the European rating cuts, however it’s the Oil being under 100 that is the weight and we are seeing divergence in that.
Elliott waveThe intraday pattern from the 10th to now appears to be an ABC corrective pattern, until proven otherwise expect a move higher through 12500
Trading Strategies : Intraday wait for a retest to check support into 12400 SG1
S&P500 CFD: 1293
TradingLevels: As long as the SG2 1265|1272|1280 remain the support the market is positive.
Elliott wave: The pattern below 1300 appears corrective so still expecting a move higher through 1300. That said there is growing weakness in the trend up and we are searching for the top and the beginnings of a larger move down
Trading Strategies : For Scalping you can work the degree down from the sublevels, that is the MicroLevels, as an example, the MicroLevels between 1280 and 1290 would Group1 1281|1282|1283 the Midpoint 1285 and Group2 1286.501287.20|1288
FTSE 100 CFD: 5641
TradingLevels: Now Subgroup2 (SG2) 5665|5672|5680 is the resistance
Elliott wave: Line the pattern up with the SP500
Trading Strategies : Only go long if 5672 is the support. When the price moves up to this level SG2 the price will react, so give it time to swing around for a while before thinking going long or short.
SPI CFD 4186
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: In the Minor degree the price should have completed its corrective pattern at 4200, the safest longs would be 4200 as support, but you have to wait for this move.
Elliott wave: larger corrective pattern across 4200 once completed which it can be now, should push up in line with the audusd
Day Trading: Work any trade from SG2 4165|4172|4180 the 4172 is the important price point. The current price is 41786 I would think the 4172 SG2 would be retested; I would simply wait and see if the 4172 becomes the support or the resistance, you can expect more corrective price action under the 4200. Keep an eye on copper and shanghai in the afternoon session as the lead will come from thereTechnical Analysis Summery
The Australian Dollar and the ASX200 are enjoying the lift in base metals and this looks set to continue this week.
The Shanghai has been forming a low and even though it should pull back down from the 2300 it should find support above 2200 and then push up lifting the whole Asian region, so many of our local stock should push higher, any stock sitting on a Major TradingLevel as support would be a good start for any long trades.US, the Dow is still under the 12,500 resistance but more importantly as support it’s above the 12,272 / 12,300, while its above this support we will call the pattern between 12500 and 12300 corrective with the view of pushing higher, if the 12500 develops as support then we can look at 12,800 and 13000, however there indications of weakness in the US and European markets in the general trend up, but as long as we know our supports we will work from that basis.
US weakness can come this week as 40 large companies put their earnings forward, so far many have been downgraded. The US has a holiday Monday
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Trading QuoteOne trade should never make or break your account.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD FPI m/m 0.2%
10:30am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m -0.1%
10:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m 5.7% -6.9%
10:50am JPY CGPI y/y 1.3% 1.7%
11:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -2.7%
11:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 0.0%
11:30am AUD Home Loans m/m 1.1% 0.7%
16th-17th NZD REINZ HPI m/m 1.1%
4:00pm JPY Household Confidence 38.9 38.1
6:00pm EUR German WPI m/m 0.3% 0.7%
7:15pm CHF PPI m/m -0.4% -0.8%
All Day USD Bank Holiday
12:30am CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 2.1% 3.3%
5:00am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Sunday, 15 January 2012
Elliott wave
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Description:
TradingLounge specialists in Technical Analysis such as TradingLevels, Elliott Wave Theory, Price and Volume. Plus Trading Strategies, Day Trading and Trading Education. Elliott Wave also available for a Free Trial http://tradinglounge.com.au
Elliott Wave
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks were little changed in afternoon trading after three batches of tepid U.S. economic data tempered investor optimism over strong Italian and Spanish debt auctions.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1652
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The price is working with the 1650 MediumLevel and from a trading point of view we have to allow it to unfold its pattern, if the pattern is bullish corrective (three swings across the level) and then finds support, then the trade is long, if resistance then we start looking for a short trade. The fact that it’s above the 1650 gives it a bullish start, secondly the Copper market (base metals) is extending higher…
Elliott wave: There is an Elliott wave count that completes the move up here at the 1650 and that’s fine however I have learnt over time that we need evidence of a turn before selling and while the price is above a level we don’t short, only on a failed retest and intraday impulse waves down. Either way the next few sessions should be corrective, so we aren’t missing anything, this is the same for silver.
Sliver Expect a corrective pattern at 30.00, don’t trade until you understand the unfolding pattern at 30 TL3 it could take three days to sort itself out the 28.72 SG2 is the support and this is likely to be tested IF the price works under the 30.00, the first support is SG2 of 29.00 i.e. 2965|2972|2980, with 2972 the most important
Oil WTI: 101.80
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Oil is still sitting in Group1 and the first sign of strength would be finding support on the pivot 102, but it’s the 103 the top of Group1 that is the evidence for the safer long trade
Elliott wave: While the price is above 100, the Elliott wave count can is for new highs above 103 to 105. This would be helped by stock, so the Dow would need to push higher from the current lows 12400
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.62+
US Nickel: Last: 8.91+
US Zinc: Last: 0.88+
US Aluminium Last: 0.95-
Copper CFD: 363
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Copper is now working with Subgroup2 (SG2 – 365|372|380) the price pattern is an impulse wave up and the longer term target is a retest of 400.
The Elliott impulse wave up should see the top of wave three and wave four corrective pattern unfold within SG2 with wave five up towards 400 the MediumLevel ML4. This move strengths most metals and therefore Materials sectors and Asian markets, ASX, Shanghai..
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.00
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The move down is the Wave c of the abc corrective pattern we have been tracking and the mirror opposite for the Euro. The Wave c will have five smaller waves in it, so we could see the price move through 81.00 to next support 80.72
Once the Wave c is completed we should see the Dollar move up and the Euro down, so if the Dollar does move down below 81.00 to 8072 etc, then finds supports on 81.00 then look for a long trade scaling in via SG1 of 81
Forex EURUSD 1.2830
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The Euro and SP500 are out of whack so keep an eye on that as they we pull together again. The current move up should spend time at 128, if it does find support after three swings then the target would be 12872 SG2
Elliott wave: Wave c up, like the US Dollar down in five waves, this Wave c up will have five smaller waves, counting from the last low at SG2 12672 zone, at a guess the current high around the 12840 is the top of wave three? With wave four about to unfold back into 128, however the 12840 maybe also the top of the fifth wave, I’m just not too sure.
Trading Strategies: the 12840 top of wave three or five?, so use the levels to trade, that if it’s the top of wave three, then wave four will come back to 128 in a slightly messy corrective pattern, so just allow it to unfold, after at least three swings into 128 if it finds support, then look to trade long when it get back above 128 as support and use SG1 to scale in, with targets at 12872, don’t go long when the price is below 128, because if the top 12840 is the top of wave five, then the bear market is continuing its trend down and you need to be short
Forex AUDUSD 1.0320
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 10372 target was reached, but while the price is above 103 and 10272 the market is positive. Support on group1 10330 is a platform for longs. Keep an eye on the SP500 and Copper as this market is tuned to them.
Elliott wave: There are a few ways to count the current structure, so choose your degree of structure to trade and set your rules around that. The Asian markets seem positive however the US indices are still battling with their resistances so be careful with long trades, we could end up seeing a larger corrective pattern at 103, while the price is above the 10272 consider it positive
Trading Strategies: Trade the sublevels
Indices
Resistance 12500 Dow / SP500 1300 IF they become support, then markets are positive, if supports are broken Dow 12272 / SP500 1272 then negative. Dow target 12,772 SG2 if support is found on 12,500
Dow Jones CFD 12,437
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: There’s not a lot I can add here, we are just observing the patterns unfold, we know there is resistance here, we know indicators are showing the same, we know there would be corrective price action here and not to get involved but also not to make any early predictions until we can see the evidence either in the price action pattern or 12500 as support or resistance, we can see the trend is up, but we can also see weakness in the trend.
Elliott wave: the five wave structure up is still unfolding, its just a bit messy and weak, but targets can be at 12800 / 12772
Trading Strategies: Long off 12400 SG1 and the Midpoint 12450
S&P500 CFD: 1290
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Another retest of 1300 from the 1290
Elliott wave: A move above 1300
Trading Strategies: Same again - support on 1290 creates the long but exit before 1300 and of course use the group1 midpoint and group2
FTSE 100 CFD: 5682
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Long of 5672 the next move should move up through 5700
Elliott wave: Targets 5772 - 5800
Trading Strategies: you may have had problems in the last session, but don’t give up as the corrective pattern looks more completed now, and supports such as SG2 5665|5672|5680 will have more meaning
SPI CFD 4189
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 4200 mTL2 is the pivot within MinorGroup1 this is important as it’s the balance line in within Minor Group1. Support on 4200 creates the long to 4272
Elliott wave: Unsure
Strategies: trading long off 4200 as support, use SG1 4210|4220|4230 to scale in the 4172 SG2 is the zone of support, if the 4172 becomes the resistance then short. The building of support at 4200 will be messy, the breakout – the first high above the level 4200 is likely to retest the 4200 and lower so accommodate this, you know the retest is more important than the break out.
Summary
US markets reacted at their resistance levels 12500 and 1300 Dow / SP but looking at their reaction patterns, they seem to be in three waves down, corrective, is this is the case then we can expect them to climb higher above there resistances.
Positive moves in base and precious metals, which is a positive for the AUDUSD / Materials sector and ASX
I think some of the US banks are reporting tonight so this could be the catalyst for the retest of US resistances… but please check that.
The Shanghai low that we talked about yesterday is still positive, but would really take about a week to develop, but all the same its positive and this is one of the ASX drivers
Weekly Cycle; The Thursday was lower and lower on volume, which is the catalyst for higher price today and if Friday’s closing is strong with confirming volume, then Monday will be a bull day. Trading the cycle is to scale in on Thursday afternoon if you see low volume and then continue to scale in on Friday morning and if you see Friday afternoon closing strong on confirming volume then you would add to longs, if you see the UK rolling over south then you can short that market to hedge ASX trades and also set up USA Robo trades to hedge ASX trades.
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Trading Quote
If the losses don’t hurt, your financial survival is tenuous.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
10:50am JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 3.1% 3.0%
8:30pm GBP PPI Input m/m 0.1% 0.1%
8:30pm GBP PPI Output m/m 0.1% 0.2%
9:00pm EUR Trade Balance 0.7B 0.3B
12:30am CAD Trade Balance -0.4B -0.9B
12:30am USD Trade Balance -44.6B -43.5B
12:30am USD Import Prices m/m 0.0% 0.7%
1:55am USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 70.8 69.9
1:55am USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 3.1%
3:10am USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Description:
TradingLounge specialists in Technical Analysis such as TradingLevels, Elliott Wave Theory, Price and Volume. Plus Trading Strategies, Day Trading and Trading Education. Elliott Wave also available for a Free Trial http://tradinglounge.com.au
Elliott Wave
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks were little changed in afternoon trading after three batches of tepid U.S. economic data tempered investor optimism over strong Italian and Spanish debt auctions.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1652
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The price is working with the 1650 MediumLevel and from a trading point of view we have to allow it to unfold its pattern, if the pattern is bullish corrective (three swings across the level) and then finds support, then the trade is long, if resistance then we start looking for a short trade. The fact that it’s above the 1650 gives it a bullish start, secondly the Copper market (base metals) is extending higher…
Elliott wave: There is an Elliott wave count that completes the move up here at the 1650 and that’s fine however I have learnt over time that we need evidence of a turn before selling and while the price is above a level we don’t short, only on a failed retest and intraday impulse waves down. Either way the next few sessions should be corrective, so we aren’t missing anything, this is the same for silver.
Sliver Expect a corrective pattern at 30.00, don’t trade until you understand the unfolding pattern at 30 TL3 it could take three days to sort itself out the 28.72 SG2 is the support and this is likely to be tested IF the price works under the 30.00, the first support is SG2 of 29.00 i.e. 2965|2972|2980, with 2972 the most important
Oil WTI: 101.80
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Oil is still sitting in Group1 and the first sign of strength would be finding support on the pivot 102, but it’s the 103 the top of Group1 that is the evidence for the safer long trade
Elliott wave: While the price is above 100, the Elliott wave count can is for new highs above 103 to 105. This would be helped by stock, so the Dow would need to push higher from the current lows 12400
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.62+
US Nickel: Last: 8.91+
US Zinc: Last: 0.88+
US Aluminium Last: 0.95-
Copper CFD: 363
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Copper is now working with Subgroup2 (SG2 – 365|372|380) the price pattern is an impulse wave up and the longer term target is a retest of 400.
The Elliott impulse wave up should see the top of wave three and wave four corrective pattern unfold within SG2 with wave five up towards 400 the MediumLevel ML4. This move strengths most metals and therefore Materials sectors and Asian markets, ASX, Shanghai..
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.00
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The move down is the Wave c of the abc corrective pattern we have been tracking and the mirror opposite for the Euro. The Wave c will have five smaller waves in it, so we could see the price move through 81.00 to next support 80.72
Once the Wave c is completed we should see the Dollar move up and the Euro down, so if the Dollar does move down below 81.00 to 8072 etc, then finds supports on 81.00 then look for a long trade scaling in via SG1 of 81
Forex EURUSD 1.2830
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The Euro and SP500 are out of whack so keep an eye on that as they we pull together again. The current move up should spend time at 128, if it does find support after three swings then the target would be 12872 SG2
Elliott wave: Wave c up, like the US Dollar down in five waves, this Wave c up will have five smaller waves, counting from the last low at SG2 12672 zone, at a guess the current high around the 12840 is the top of wave three? With wave four about to unfold back into 128, however the 12840 maybe also the top of the fifth wave, I’m just not too sure.
Trading Strategies: the 12840 top of wave three or five?, so use the levels to trade, that if it’s the top of wave three, then wave four will come back to 128 in a slightly messy corrective pattern, so just allow it to unfold, after at least three swings into 128 if it finds support, then look to trade long when it get back above 128 as support and use SG1 to scale in, with targets at 12872, don’t go long when the price is below 128, because if the top 12840 is the top of wave five, then the bear market is continuing its trend down and you need to be short
Forex AUDUSD 1.0320
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 10372 target was reached, but while the price is above 103 and 10272 the market is positive. Support on group1 10330 is a platform for longs. Keep an eye on the SP500 and Copper as this market is tuned to them.
Elliott wave: There are a few ways to count the current structure, so choose your degree of structure to trade and set your rules around that. The Asian markets seem positive however the US indices are still battling with their resistances so be careful with long trades, we could end up seeing a larger corrective pattern at 103, while the price is above the 10272 consider it positive
Trading Strategies: Trade the sublevels
Indices
Resistance 12500 Dow / SP500 1300 IF they become support, then markets are positive, if supports are broken Dow 12272 / SP500 1272 then negative. Dow target 12,772 SG2 if support is found on 12,500
Dow Jones CFD 12,437
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: There’s not a lot I can add here, we are just observing the patterns unfold, we know there is resistance here, we know indicators are showing the same, we know there would be corrective price action here and not to get involved but also not to make any early predictions until we can see the evidence either in the price action pattern or 12500 as support or resistance, we can see the trend is up, but we can also see weakness in the trend.
Elliott wave: the five wave structure up is still unfolding, its just a bit messy and weak, but targets can be at 12800 / 12772
Trading Strategies: Long off 12400 SG1 and the Midpoint 12450
S&P500 CFD: 1290
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Another retest of 1300 from the 1290
Elliott wave: A move above 1300
Trading Strategies: Same again - support on 1290 creates the long but exit before 1300 and of course use the group1 midpoint and group2
FTSE 100 CFD: 5682
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Long of 5672 the next move should move up through 5700
Elliott wave: Targets 5772 - 5800
Trading Strategies: you may have had problems in the last session, but don’t give up as the corrective pattern looks more completed now, and supports such as SG2 5665|5672|5680 will have more meaning
SPI CFD 4189
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 4200 mTL2 is the pivot within MinorGroup1 this is important as it’s the balance line in within Minor Group1. Support on 4200 creates the long to 4272
Elliott wave: Unsure
Strategies: trading long off 4200 as support, use SG1 4210|4220|4230 to scale in the 4172 SG2 is the zone of support, if the 4172 becomes the resistance then short. The building of support at 4200 will be messy, the breakout – the first high above the level 4200 is likely to retest the 4200 and lower so accommodate this, you know the retest is more important than the break out.
Summary
US markets reacted at their resistance levels 12500 and 1300 Dow / SP but looking at their reaction patterns, they seem to be in three waves down, corrective, is this is the case then we can expect them to climb higher above there resistances.
Positive moves in base and precious metals, which is a positive for the AUDUSD / Materials sector and ASX
I think some of the US banks are reporting tonight so this could be the catalyst for the retest of US resistances… but please check that.
The Shanghai low that we talked about yesterday is still positive, but would really take about a week to develop, but all the same its positive and this is one of the ASX drivers
Weekly Cycle; The Thursday was lower and lower on volume, which is the catalyst for higher price today and if Friday’s closing is strong with confirming volume, then Monday will be a bull day. Trading the cycle is to scale in on Thursday afternoon if you see low volume and then continue to scale in on Friday morning and if you see Friday afternoon closing strong on confirming volume then you would add to longs, if you see the UK rolling over south then you can short that market to hedge ASX trades and also set up USA Robo trades to hedge ASX trades.
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Trading Quote
If the losses don’t hurt, your financial survival is tenuous.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
10:50am JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 3.1% 3.0%
8:30pm GBP PPI Input m/m 0.1% 0.1%
8:30pm GBP PPI Output m/m 0.1% 0.2%
9:00pm EUR Trade Balance 0.7B 0.3B
12:30am CAD Trade Balance -0.4B -0.9B
12:30am USD Trade Balance -44.6B -43.5B
12:30am USD Import Prices m/m 0.0% 0.7%
1:55am USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 70.8 69.9
1:55am USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 3.1%
3:10am USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
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