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TradingLounge’s Peter Mathers Technical Analyst outlines Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies using the Tradinglevels Pattern Recognition Elliott Wave as Trading Education.
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News
Stocks slid, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lower for a third day, Treasuries rose and the euro weakened as Greece tangled with European officials over terms of a second rescue package. Italy’s bonds slid and costs to insure Portugal’s debt rose to a record.
Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1732
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Subgroup1 (SG1) 1710|1720|1730 if the price finds support on top of SG1 1730 then expect the price at 1750, if the 1720 (pivot) becomes resistance expect the price back at 1700
Elliott Wave: The bullish count, a pullback to 1700 then up. The bearish count, a top in place
Silver: Same as gold, with the bullish and bearish count, this is also the same for US Indices, we expected a selloff we can’t confirm if the selloff is a change in trend or a correction
Oil WTI: 99.10
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Long with a break above 101 and short under 98.
Elliott Wave: The pattern we have been tracking is still working its self into a corner and will make a break this week either way. The last move down from 101 to the current low can be an abc correction, so any move up of this low try and work out if it’s impulsive (five waves) but the long trade is safest above 100 and the short trade is the 98 as the retested resistance. the wave count should now line up with US Indices
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.82-
US Nickel: Last: 9.63-
US Zinc: Last: 0.95-
US Aluminium Last: 1.00+
Copper CFD: 380
Technical Analysis:
The trend up is seeing its first and expected weakness under 400 (ML4) it can come back to 372 as a wave four and wave fours can get complicated, so we should expect more than three swings, we are only seeing the first down now.
Forex
Question of the week: Will Eur and Gbp be a good sell this week, or Cad and Aud a good buy?
Hard to say right now, but it’s interesting how the price action unfolded through recent weeks and days. Both, cable and Euro could be topping out soon, as first impulsive wave (A) of II is looking for a low on dollar index. Well, on the other-hand Aussie and Cad are showing only three waves of retrace from recent extremes, so this pull-back could easily be part of a larger trend (lower USD).
US Dollar: 79.30
Technical Analysis:
As you know we have been tracking the Wave A (of an ABC correction) down, this Wave A has five smaller waves and the current bounce off 79 may be the end of the Wave A down, if this is the case then 80 will be retested. The bounce off 79.00 would be at minimum a small abc rally in three waves. Finding support on top of SG1 7930 is the key for any upside to SG2 7972|7980.
The Euro is doing the opposite and in line with SP500
EURUSD 1.3127
TradingLevels: A larger corrective patter is emerging across 130
Elliott Wave: The Wave A up is looking completed and the Wave B down is underway
Trading Strategies: Expect a bounce of 131 as it retests 132. Support on 13130 (Group1) would create short term longs to the Midpoint 13150 where the supply is, so exit, if the Midpoint becomes support then go long off that to SG2 13172.
AUDUSD 1.0580
TradingLevels: The price is working with 106. IF support is found back above 106 then you can think long and scale in above the 106 through the SG1 (10610|10620|10630) if the price can develop support on top of SG1 the 10630 then the price can lift higher
Elliott Wave: The pattern coming down across 106 can be the ABC corrective pattern but if this is the case it must now trade above 106. The Flip side is it takes out the last low around the 10530 then the price will get trapped into 105 creating a much bigger corrective pattern
Trading Strategies: Long above 106 with targets above the 107 in five waves up.
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,576
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: While the price is above 12,500 the market is supported, when a price reacts from 12,800 then 12,500 is the first support, its simply working with the Fibonacci ratio 1,2,3,5,8 so we can say if the second strongest number 5 cannot support the price then its back to 3 and if its back to 3 then it’s a part of Group1 and a part of the closest largest number and that is 12,000 but as far as the levels are concerned that would be the MediumLevel 11,500 (ML15) so the 12500 is stopping the price dropping to 11,500
Elliott Wave: The move down appears in nature to be impulsive, with its sharp move and thus creating the top.
But also technically it can still be a corrective move too and ABC pullback. That is why I mentioned the support at 12500 last time, the 12500 as resistance certainly puts a dent into the trend up.
Trading Strategies: Day Trading - Long if 12,600 finds support.
S&P500 CFD: 1307
TradingLevels: Larger pattern unfolding into 1300
Elliott Wave: We have to follow two wave counts, one is a top is in place and the market will roll over down and the other is a larger corrective pattern across 1300 (and below) in three waves ABC and then move up making new highs
Trading Strategies: Its normal to see buyers sitting on 1300 and creating a bounce that will hit supply/sellers in the 1310 – 1320 range with the sellers probably wining and seeing the price back and below 1300, the 1290 is the 38.2% retracement level so expect the price to bounce around between the 1290 and the 1300, the price also test lower to 1280 the first level of SG2
FTSE 100 CFD: 5670
TradingLevels: 5650 (65) support resistance 5700 then 5720 supply
Elliott Wave: The FSTE has displayed the most weakness in the move down, as its move the furthest, passing the wave four of one lesser degree at 5700. So there is more evidence here for a top being in place and therefore we should follow a more bearish count, the impulse wave . but technically counting the structure down it can be and abc, with the current low in at 5650, we just have to wait and see for more development, but this is a good reflection of the Euro talks on debt.
Trading Strategies: Expect a retest of 5700 from 5650. IF the 5700 cannot find support then look for a short there, if support is found then scale in long
DAX CFD: 6462
Technical Analysis: Same, Give the price a few sessions at 6500 MediumLevel, lets simply see if this level develops support or as resistance. The real support is still at 6400, so above this the Dax is positive below negative
SPI CFD 4264
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: 4300 is the top of MinorGroup1, the resistance. The price has reached 4300 the other day and its normal for it to react, the reaction has found support at the first volume demand level at 4230 SG1 and will now retest supply starting at SG2 4265|4272|4280 it’s the 4272 as support of resistance that a trader can work from
Elliott Wave: Can take the price to 4500, that’s if the US Indices are only correcting a small correction and the Dow stays above 12500 and the Shanghai builds above the 2300 (group1) support. And of course the price needs to find support on the 4300 to create a long trade to 4500 where it is then expected to roll over down
Day Trading: Use 4272 or the Midpoint 4250 as support or resistance, be on the right side of these sublevels. Basically you have to work SG2 4265|4272|4280 with 4272 being the important pivot as support or resistance, being long with 4272 as support is much safer than being long under it.
Summary
US Indices The moves are governed by the European mess.
I don’t know if the current moves down are just bullish corrective or the start of the bear market for the US and Euro zone. The patterns are still too small to offer evidence. The 12500 on the Dow is the short term support floor. The SP500 will see at least a corrective pattern, but the question is will the price end up having the 1300 as support or resistance, this can take all week to develop, its simply a guessing game as I can see both counts bullish and bearish, but cannot give a clear answer, so we simply should wait until we are sure and then trade that direction.
Europe It appears the officials are debating the bond debt yields, this would be expected negations as the ECB would only want to give closer to 3 where the buyers would want closer to 4, the outcome of this discussion should see a bounce, but as you know the Greece problem is only 2.5% of the Euro output, but a blue print for Portugal, Spain, Italy..
The pattern across the MediumLevel 6500 for the Dax is unfolding and as long as it stays above the support 6400 then the Dax is positive. Their neighbours the Britt’s, don’t seem as confident as the FSTE traded sharply lower than other markets presenting a more bearish impulse wave.
China The Shanghai, 2300 as support is all we need to know about, the more this can develop as support the more positive Asia in general is.
Australia The Shanghai support 2300 is critical and the 4300 as support for the ASX200 is the next positive step to watch for, IF this is found then the 4500 is the target. The base metals that have been part of the driver has met supply just under 400 and is having its correction, I think its just a correction and that the price will push higher, this can be seen in the US BHP at 80 (TL8) so Australia can expect corrective consolidations before another push higher. I did place out short trades in the ASX Robo to hedge this corrective situation
Trading Quote
Most of the time common stocks are subject to irrational and excessive price fluctuations in both directions as the consequence of the ingrained tendency of most people to speculate or gamble... to give way to hope, fear and greed. Benjamin Graham
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
8:45am NZD Building Consents m/m -6.4%
10:15am JPY Manufacturing PMI 50.2
10:30am JPY Household Spending y/y -0.1% -3.2%
10:30am JPY Unemployment Rate 4.5% 4.5%
10:50am JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m 2.6% -2.7%
11:01am GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -31 -33
11:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 2
11:30am AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.4% 0.3%
|4:00pm JPY Housing Starts y/y -1.4% -0.3%
6:00pm CHF UBS Consumption Indicator 0.81
6:00pm EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.9% -1.0%
6:45pm EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.3% -0.1%
7:55pm EUR German Unemployment Change -8K -22K
8:00pm EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 8.6% 8.6%
8:30pm GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 1.2B 1.0B
8:30pm GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.3% -0.6%
8:30pm GBP Mortgage Approvals 53K 53K
9:00pm EUR Unemployment Rate 10.4% 10.3%
12:30am CAD GDP m/m 0.2% 0.0%
12:30am CAD RMPI m/m 0.2% 3.8%
12:30am CAD IPPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
12:30am USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.4% 0.3%
1:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y -3.2% -3.4%
1:45am USD Chicago PMI 63.2 62.5
2:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence 68.4 64.5
Australian Corporate Calendar
Panoramic Resources Limited (PAN.AU) December Quarterly Report
Cudeco Limited (CDU.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Bathurst Resources Limited (BTU.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Dart Energy Limited (DEGEF) Quarterly Activities Report
Rex Minerals Limited (RXM.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Integra Mining Limited (IGR.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Ramelius Resources Limited December Quarterly Activities Report
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
Showing posts with label Day Trading Strategies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Day Trading Strategies. Show all posts
Wednesday, 1 February 2012
Monday, 30 January 2012
TradingLounge’s 7.30.AM Daily Technical Analysis Report
Video; http://youtu.be/JT0HiwUAsQw
Technical Analysis
Dow Jones 12,660 -0.58%
Base Metals Steady
US Gold CFD: 1724
Oil WTI: 100.75
Copper CFD: 389
US Dollar: 79.40
EURUSD 1.3120
AUDUSD 1.0630
Dow Jones CFD 12,742
S&P500 CFD: 1316
FTSE 100 CFD: 5770
DAX CFD: 6500
SPI CFD 4271
Trading Education
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stock indexes ended mixed Friday after a reading on domestic economic growth fell short of expectations
US Gold CFD: 1738
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The supply and the 78.6% are close to 1750 the Midpoint so expect selling there.
The first resistance is SG2 1665|1772|1780 with the 1772 being the important level.
Then next level is the (mTL8) 1800 the profit taking number, these number are important when you start looking at the wave count in stocks like NCM as you can easily count five waves up from their lows, so they will also go through and abc correction
Elliott Wave: There are two counts we are tracking the bullish count and that’s a large impulse wave up to 2,000 (TL2) as on our Elliott charts.
The other is the bearish count that would complete the trend up under the 1,800, essentially turning with the US Indices and the Euro to the downside with the US Dollar up.
Silver: Possible next top, counting the five waves up off the 30.00 would be around the 3450 to 3500 make sure you lock in profits close to 35.00 if we are wrong, then re-enter using the 3500 as the tested support
Oil WTI: 99.68
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Long with a break above 101 and short under 98.
Elliott Wave: The pattern we have been tracking is still working its self into a corner and will make a break this week either way, so oil traders get ready for being long or short, I will explain the pattern in the video.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.86+
US Nickel: Last: 9.80+
US Zinc: Last: 0.96-
US Aluminium Last: 1.00-
Copper CFD: 389
Technical Analysis:
Will meet 400 the MediumLevel this week and stop trending for a while, however the price should stay above the SG2 372 and eventually edge higher and this price action will reflect in Material sectors through the world. Another guide stick is US BHP as its slowly developing support on the MajorLevel 80 (TL8)
Forex
The euro increased amid optimism Greece was making progress in debt-restructuring talks with bondholders.
US Dollar: 78.90
Technical Analysis:
The Wave A down is still in progress and the Wave A up in the Euro in progress on the premise of the ECB sorting out Greeks debt, if and when these talks show weakness we will see the Wave B up retesting 80.
Lower targets would be the 78.50 to 78 which is close to the 50/62% retracement level, this leaves the Euro at 133+
EURUSD 1.3218
TradingLevels: The Euro is trending up nicely, expect a small abc corrective pattern across 132 then a push higher
Elliott Wave: Euro reached even lower levels seen yesterday, and now minor fall from the top appears to be wave (a), only first leg of a corrective pull-back, which will probably test previous swing highs around 1.0340-1.0370.
Trading Strategies: wait for the abc correction at 132, the scale in long through SG1 to 133
AUDUSD 1.0655
TradingLevels: Resistances 1.0772 – 1.08.
Elliott Wave: We still think that reversal from a top is corrective, part of a larger incomplete bullish trend, but we are not sure if wave four is already finished. Simply because the minor decline from 1.0686 can be counted in five waves, so it’s likely only one leg of a corrective pull-back that may retest 38.2%.
Trading Strategies: understand the comments on Elliott then use the sublevels. Support on the Midpoint 10650 is the key to higher ground and you know the 10672 is what you need to get past to add to the trade
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,663
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The expected reaction at 12,800 mTL8 is under way , we need to wait and see if the move down becomes impulsive or corrective
A move under 12500 and the trend up is broken.
Elliott Wave: The DJI appears to have five waves down, the Futures appear to have three waves down, so we are going to have to see more patterns.
Trading Strategies: Only go long with 12720 (72) as support, otherwise its further down and a move under the last low 12630 would be the short or even 12650 as retested resistance
S&P500 CFD: 1316
TradingLevels: Expect a move back to 1300, if however the price finds support on top of SG1 1330 then this would create a move to 1350 the Midpoint
Elliott wave: Back to 1300 - 1290 (38.2% Retracement)
Trading Strategies: Expect choppy price action between 1310 and 1300
FTSE 100 CFD: 5728
TradingLevels: The reaction from 5800 (mTL8) is unfolding, day trading support are 5720 and 5700.
Elliott Wave: It’s still too early, but it appears five small waves down from 5800 is unfolding, that would mean a bounce off 5700 in three waves (abc Zigzag pattern) back to supply at 5765 SG2 and then down again in five waves. Seeing if the Dax find support on 6500 the MediumLevel will be influencing on the bullish side
Trading Strategies: If your short from the5772 then cover at 5700 and wait.
DAX CFD: 6515
Technical Analysis: Give the price a few sessions at 6500 MediumLevel, lets simply see if this level develops support or as resistance. The real support is still at 6400, so the Dax is positive.
SPI CFD 4282
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: 4300 is the top of MinorGroup1 and support on this level creates the 4500 target price point, this would be in line with Shanghai reaching 2500 but first finding support on 2300 which is also a MinorLevel Group1
Elliott Wave: The main trend is up, but its dealing with old highs at 4300, so expect further corrective patterns first.
Day Trading: Use the 4272 as support or resistance, be on the right side of this sublevel
Summary
US Indices can have a top in place now, as we have been observing the wave structures ending impulsing sub waves finalise. That said we now need evidence of this and that would be seeing sets of impulse waves (five waves) edge down, another way to view this is a break of 12,500 on the Dow, sure that’s quite a way down, but it does break the main trend structure up. The main event next week in the US is of course Facebook coming on the market and this will be the catalyst for any moves in either direction, from my limited readings about the Facebook subject its earning do not match its anting value and therefore has a element of failure as a float, I guess the big bucks will see this overvalued aspect but there is probably enough smaller players to make up the hype, any way an interesting even next week.
China is back from holidays on Monday and should continue to lift higher with the target at 2500; the base metals are still trending nicely helping up the ASX, however the 4300 is required as support to get to the 4500 target and finding support on 4300 can actually take two weeks as its dealing with old highs, so a pullback at 4300 would be normal.
Europe is all about the Greek bailout talks, the results of this will be in the Euro, the Elliott count would be looking for support on 130 then pushing to 132 and then rolling over south.
Trading Quote
If you don’t have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
Monday January 30, 2012
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m -0.4% 0.7%
All Day EUR EU Economic Summit
12:30am USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.1%
12:30am USD Personal Spending m/m 0.2% 0.1%
12:30am USD Personal Income m/m 0.4% 0.1%
Australian Corporate Calendar
Navitas Ltd (NVT.AU) Interim 2012 Results presentation
Australian Worldwide Exploration Ltd (AWE.AU) December Quarterly Report
Navitas Ltd (NVT.AU) Interim 2012 Results
Origin Energy Ltd (ORG.AU) Quarterly Production Report
Resource Generation (RES.AU) December Quarterly Report
Woolworths Ltd (WOW.AU) Q2 2012 Sales
Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (KCN.AU) December Quarterly Report
Lynas Corporation (LYC.AU) December Activities Report
Ceramic Fuel Cells Ltd (CFU.AU) Trading statement
Cockatoo Coal Ltd (COK.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited SAR.AU Quarterly Activities Report
Aston Resources Ltd (AZT.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Panoramic Resources Limited (PAN.AU) December Quarterly Report
Cudeco Limited (CDU.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Bathurst Resources Limited (BTU.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Dart Energy Limited (DEGEF) Quarterly Activities Report
Rex Minerals Limited (RXM.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Integra Mining Limited (IGR.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Ramelius Resources Limited December Quarterly Activities Report
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
Tradinglounge – Delivers trading opportunities for International and local Share CFDs, Stocks, Options and Forex. Analysis > Strategy > Management Request a demo here
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Technical Analysis
Dow Jones 12,660 -0.58%
Base Metals Steady
US Gold CFD: 1724
Oil WTI: 100.75
Copper CFD: 389
US Dollar: 79.40
EURUSD 1.3120
AUDUSD 1.0630
Dow Jones CFD 12,742
S&P500 CFD: 1316
FTSE 100 CFD: 5770
DAX CFD: 6500
SPI CFD 4271
Trading Education
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stock indexes ended mixed Friday after a reading on domestic economic growth fell short of expectations
US Gold CFD: 1738
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The supply and the 78.6% are close to 1750 the Midpoint so expect selling there.
The first resistance is SG2 1665|1772|1780 with the 1772 being the important level.
Then next level is the (mTL8) 1800 the profit taking number, these number are important when you start looking at the wave count in stocks like NCM as you can easily count five waves up from their lows, so they will also go through and abc correction
Elliott Wave: There are two counts we are tracking the bullish count and that’s a large impulse wave up to 2,000 (TL2) as on our Elliott charts.
The other is the bearish count that would complete the trend up under the 1,800, essentially turning with the US Indices and the Euro to the downside with the US Dollar up.
Silver: Possible next top, counting the five waves up off the 30.00 would be around the 3450 to 3500 make sure you lock in profits close to 35.00 if we are wrong, then re-enter using the 3500 as the tested support
Oil WTI: 99.68
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Long with a break above 101 and short under 98.
Elliott Wave: The pattern we have been tracking is still working its self into a corner and will make a break this week either way, so oil traders get ready for being long or short, I will explain the pattern in the video.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.86+
US Nickel: Last: 9.80+
US Zinc: Last: 0.96-
US Aluminium Last: 1.00-
Copper CFD: 389
Technical Analysis:
Will meet 400 the MediumLevel this week and stop trending for a while, however the price should stay above the SG2 372 and eventually edge higher and this price action will reflect in Material sectors through the world. Another guide stick is US BHP as its slowly developing support on the MajorLevel 80 (TL8)
Forex
The euro increased amid optimism Greece was making progress in debt-restructuring talks with bondholders.
US Dollar: 78.90
Technical Analysis:
The Wave A down is still in progress and the Wave A up in the Euro in progress on the premise of the ECB sorting out Greeks debt, if and when these talks show weakness we will see the Wave B up retesting 80.
Lower targets would be the 78.50 to 78 which is close to the 50/62% retracement level, this leaves the Euro at 133+
EURUSD 1.3218
TradingLevels: The Euro is trending up nicely, expect a small abc corrective pattern across 132 then a push higher
Elliott Wave: Euro reached even lower levels seen yesterday, and now minor fall from the top appears to be wave (a), only first leg of a corrective pull-back, which will probably test previous swing highs around 1.0340-1.0370.
Trading Strategies: wait for the abc correction at 132, the scale in long through SG1 to 133
AUDUSD 1.0655
TradingLevels: Resistances 1.0772 – 1.08.
Elliott Wave: We still think that reversal from a top is corrective, part of a larger incomplete bullish trend, but we are not sure if wave four is already finished. Simply because the minor decline from 1.0686 can be counted in five waves, so it’s likely only one leg of a corrective pull-back that may retest 38.2%.
Trading Strategies: understand the comments on Elliott then use the sublevels. Support on the Midpoint 10650 is the key to higher ground and you know the 10672 is what you need to get past to add to the trade
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,663
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The expected reaction at 12,800 mTL8 is under way , we need to wait and see if the move down becomes impulsive or corrective
A move under 12500 and the trend up is broken.
Elliott Wave: The DJI appears to have five waves down, the Futures appear to have three waves down, so we are going to have to see more patterns.
Trading Strategies: Only go long with 12720 (72) as support, otherwise its further down and a move under the last low 12630 would be the short or even 12650 as retested resistance
S&P500 CFD: 1316
TradingLevels: Expect a move back to 1300, if however the price finds support on top of SG1 1330 then this would create a move to 1350 the Midpoint
Elliott wave: Back to 1300 - 1290 (38.2% Retracement)
Trading Strategies: Expect choppy price action between 1310 and 1300
FTSE 100 CFD: 5728
TradingLevels: The reaction from 5800 (mTL8) is unfolding, day trading support are 5720 and 5700.
Elliott Wave: It’s still too early, but it appears five small waves down from 5800 is unfolding, that would mean a bounce off 5700 in three waves (abc Zigzag pattern) back to supply at 5765 SG2 and then down again in five waves. Seeing if the Dax find support on 6500 the MediumLevel will be influencing on the bullish side
Trading Strategies: If your short from the5772 then cover at 5700 and wait.
DAX CFD: 6515
Technical Analysis: Give the price a few sessions at 6500 MediumLevel, lets simply see if this level develops support or as resistance. The real support is still at 6400, so the Dax is positive.
SPI CFD 4282
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: 4300 is the top of MinorGroup1 and support on this level creates the 4500 target price point, this would be in line with Shanghai reaching 2500 but first finding support on 2300 which is also a MinorLevel Group1
Elliott Wave: The main trend is up, but its dealing with old highs at 4300, so expect further corrective patterns first.
Day Trading: Use the 4272 as support or resistance, be on the right side of this sublevel
Summary
US Indices can have a top in place now, as we have been observing the wave structures ending impulsing sub waves finalise. That said we now need evidence of this and that would be seeing sets of impulse waves (five waves) edge down, another way to view this is a break of 12,500 on the Dow, sure that’s quite a way down, but it does break the main trend structure up. The main event next week in the US is of course Facebook coming on the market and this will be the catalyst for any moves in either direction, from my limited readings about the Facebook subject its earning do not match its anting value and therefore has a element of failure as a float, I guess the big bucks will see this overvalued aspect but there is probably enough smaller players to make up the hype, any way an interesting even next week.
China is back from holidays on Monday and should continue to lift higher with the target at 2500; the base metals are still trending nicely helping up the ASX, however the 4300 is required as support to get to the 4500 target and finding support on 4300 can actually take two weeks as its dealing with old highs, so a pullback at 4300 would be normal.
Europe is all about the Greek bailout talks, the results of this will be in the Euro, the Elliott count would be looking for support on 130 then pushing to 132 and then rolling over south.
Trading Quote
If you don’t have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
Monday January 30, 2012
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m -0.4% 0.7%
All Day EUR EU Economic Summit
12:30am USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.1%
12:30am USD Personal Spending m/m 0.2% 0.1%
12:30am USD Personal Income m/m 0.4% 0.1%
Australian Corporate Calendar
Navitas Ltd (NVT.AU) Interim 2012 Results presentation
Australian Worldwide Exploration Ltd (AWE.AU) December Quarterly Report
Navitas Ltd (NVT.AU) Interim 2012 Results
Origin Energy Ltd (ORG.AU) Quarterly Production Report
Resource Generation (RES.AU) December Quarterly Report
Woolworths Ltd (WOW.AU) Q2 2012 Sales
Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (KCN.AU) December Quarterly Report
Lynas Corporation (LYC.AU) December Activities Report
Ceramic Fuel Cells Ltd (CFU.AU) Trading statement
Cockatoo Coal Ltd (COK.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited SAR.AU Quarterly Activities Report
Aston Resources Ltd (AZT.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Panoramic Resources Limited (PAN.AU) December Quarterly Report
Cudeco Limited (CDU.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Bathurst Resources Limited (BTU.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Dart Energy Limited (DEGEF) Quarterly Activities Report
Rex Minerals Limited (RXM.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Integra Mining Limited (IGR.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Ramelius Resources Limited December Quarterly Activities Report
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
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Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Monday, 16 January 2012
Day Trading
To Watch Video on Day Trading Visit Us on Youtube http://youtu.be/GdlJneH-tig
Description:
Day Trading and Day Trading Strategies from the TradingLounge Education.
This Technical Analysis video is the basis for setting up our Mechanical Day Trading Methods called Robo, the Robo trades are for the AU, UK and USA , if you require Day Trades for these markets or further Trading Education in Technical Analysis such as Elliott Wave or TradingLevels then visit the TradingLounge for a Free Trial http://tradinglounge.com.au
News
International companies trading in New York ended lower Friday as investors anticipated credit downgrades of a number of euro-zone countries that were announced after the close
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1639
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The Elliott wave count up from 1520 to the current high can be counted in Elliott wave theory in three different ways, so we should treat our opinions lightly. The first aspect is while the price is above 1600 its supported and would only short it the 1600 was the resistance. now that that is out of the way we can focus on the price action at the MediumLevel 1650, we also understand that sublevel supports are in group1 SG1 1610|1620|1630 so the expected corrective behaviour at the 1650 would naturally find supports in SG1 as its doing now, there would also be a series of retests on 1650, after about three to five swings we would simply see the 1650 MediumLevel price as support or resistance and would trade from that. We should also take the base metals on board and we use copper for this and copper is trending up and while that is the case, gold is likely to stay not only above 1600 but 1620 and retest 1650
Elliott wave: There are two way you can count the 1520 move up, two in a corrective pattern and one in an positive impulse wave, so we should tread lightly using Elliott in this degree, we should only use it in the sublevel environment for the time being. As Gold is banging its head against resistance 1650 so is the Dow at 12500, we can see the Dow developing overlapping wave structures – weakness
At a guess I would expect the corrective patterns in Gold and US Indices to expand, so keep trading ranges within sublevels degree until the patterns for both of these markets become clear, you don’t would to keep guessing the direction while we are in a corrective pattern that we don’t understand with enough certainty, the time will come to trade, patience.
There is one point of weakness that you can watch and that is Oil as oil is likely to drag the US Indices down, if the retest of 100 TL1 fails and rolls over the US Indices will feel the pressure. There is of course a holiday in the US on Monday.
Sliver While the price is above SG2 2880|2872|2865 the market is supported and you know the price is unfolding across the Major TradingLevel TL3 | 30.00 and that we don’t trade until it’s finished.Oil WTI: 99.10
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Bias changes to bearish now that the price is under 100 TL1 and we are looking at a series of retests of TL1
98.00 (mTL8) is the first MinorLevel under 100 and is the first support, the next MinorLevel is 95 (mTL5 and also a Midpoint between the 100 and 90, the next important level of the next smaller degree is sublevel 96.50, use all of these as support and resistance for entries and stops. If and once the price is under 95 as resistance then the price is part of the 90 story and you need to understand the levels above and below 90.00 MediumLevel (ML9)
Elliott wave: The Elliott wave count is down for Oil, so the series of retests of TL1 is the key for shorts. If you can match the wave count with the retests it will help your entries and stops or you may prefer to use this to trade energy sector stocks, also use the levels and the volume to confirm the price behaviour Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.63
US Nickel: Last: 8.89-
US Zinc: Last: 0.88-
US Aluminium Last: 0.94-Copper CFD: 363
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: 350 as resistance and the base metals are bias bearish, this would also reflect in other markets previous metals, currencies and stock / materials, so it’s a simple way of managing risk and direction.
That said the trend up is still displaying strength, the next resistances are SG2 365|372|380 with the 72 being the important price point, support on this creates the next level 400 MediumLevel ML4.
Expect corrective price action at SG2 which in turn will show up in other markets i.e. ASX/ AUDUSD…
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.70
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: the ABC correction is completed and the move up is well underway, if you got from 81.00 SG1 to 82.00 well done.
Expect the normal tradinglevels Classic pattern to unfold across 81.00. That is, the reaction at 81, then searching for support SG2 or the Midpoint, then a push above 81.00, creating the first high above this level. Then a larger ABC Zigzag 5-3-5 correction across 81.00, then a move to 82.00 SG1
Forex EURUSD 1.2830
TradingLevels: The Euro and SP500 are out of whack so keep an eye on that as they we pull together again. The current move up should spend time at 128, if it does find support after three swings then the target would be 12872 SG2
Elliott wave: Euro is falling sharply, definitely forming an impulsive decline with prices now headed below 1.2660 and ideally into 1.2600 zone. At the moment it’s hard to apply the wave count on that sharp move, but we know that any small bounce will be corrective and short lived
Technical Analysis: Scalping - Short using 1.2772 as the retested resistance, add on the retest of 1.2665 both of these price points are SG2, cover part position at 1.2650 as the price should bounce, look to add again as the Midpoint 12650 experiences the retest, exit at 12630.
Forex AUDUSD 1.0323
TradingLevels: AUD is dragging its feet against copper to the upside, more in line with the SP500. But the AUD is slowly establishing support but it’s not there yet, if it does find support, scale in through SG1 10310|10320|10330
Elliott wave: Once retested support is established look for a long trade to 104
Trading Strategies : Scale in using SG1 the sublevels
Indices Resistance 12500 Dow / SP500 1300 IF they become support, then markets are positive, if supports are broken Dow 12272 / SP500 1272 then negative. Dow target 12,772 SG2 if support is found on 12,500
Dow Jones CFD 12,451
Technical Analysis US Holiday Monday
TradingLevels: The 12,300 and 12,272 are the supports and they are still is play, at this stage the sharp move down is part of a corrective pattern, a move through support 12,272 then we will start to gather evidence of the larger move down and a top being in play, it was our thoughts to have the high in place last week and that may be the case, but wave structure and pricing evidence is still required, the catalyst for pulling the price down has been the European rating cuts, however it’s the Oil being under 100 that is the weight and we are seeing divergence in that.
Elliott waveThe intraday pattern from the 10th to now appears to be an ABC corrective pattern, until proven otherwise expect a move higher through 12500
Trading Strategies : Intraday wait for a retest to check support into 12400 SG1
S&P500 CFD: 1293
TradingLevels: As long as the SG2 1265|1272|1280 remain the support the market is positive.
Elliott wave: The pattern below 1300 appears corrective so still expecting a move higher through 1300. That said there is growing weakness in the trend up and we are searching for the top and the beginnings of a larger move down
Trading Strategies : For Scalping you can work the degree down from the sublevels, that is the MicroLevels, as an example, the MicroLevels between 1280 and 1290 would Group1 1281|1282|1283 the Midpoint 1285 and Group2 1286.501287.20|1288
FTSE 100 CFD: 5641
TradingLevels: Now Subgroup2 (SG2) 5665|5672|5680 is the resistance
Elliott wave: Line the pattern up with the SP500
Trading Strategies : Only go long if 5672 is the support. When the price moves up to this level SG2 the price will react, so give it time to swing around for a while before thinking going long or short.
SPI CFD 4186
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: In the Minor degree the price should have completed its corrective pattern at 4200, the safest longs would be 4200 as support, but you have to wait for this move.
Elliott wave: larger corrective pattern across 4200 once completed which it can be now, should push up in line with the audusd
Day Trading: Work any trade from SG2 4165|4172|4180 the 4172 is the important price point. The current price is 41786 I would think the 4172 SG2 would be retested; I would simply wait and see if the 4172 becomes the support or the resistance, you can expect more corrective price action under the 4200. Keep an eye on copper and shanghai in the afternoon session as the lead will come from thereTechnical Analysis Summery
The Australian Dollar and the ASX200 are enjoying the lift in base metals and this looks set to continue this week.
The Shanghai has been forming a low and even though it should pull back down from the 2300 it should find support above 2200 and then push up lifting the whole Asian region, so many of our local stock should push higher, any stock sitting on a Major TradingLevel as support would be a good start for any long trades.US, the Dow is still under the 12,500 resistance but more importantly as support it’s above the 12,272 / 12,300, while its above this support we will call the pattern between 12500 and 12300 corrective with the view of pushing higher, if the 12500 develops as support then we can look at 12,800 and 13000, however there indications of weakness in the US and European markets in the general trend up, but as long as we know our supports we will work from that basis.
US weakness can come this week as 40 large companies put their earnings forward, so far many have been downgraded. The US has a holiday Monday
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Trading QuoteOne trade should never make or break your account.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD FPI m/m 0.2%
10:30am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m -0.1%
10:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m 5.7% -6.9%
10:50am JPY CGPI y/y 1.3% 1.7%
11:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -2.7%
11:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 0.0%
11:30am AUD Home Loans m/m 1.1% 0.7%
16th-17th NZD REINZ HPI m/m 1.1%
4:00pm JPY Household Confidence 38.9 38.1
6:00pm EUR German WPI m/m 0.3% 0.7%
7:15pm CHF PPI m/m -0.4% -0.8%
All Day USD Bank Holiday
12:30am CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 2.1% 3.3%
5:00am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Description:
Day Trading and Day Trading Strategies from the TradingLounge Education.
This Technical Analysis video is the basis for setting up our Mechanical Day Trading Methods called Robo, the Robo trades are for the AU, UK and USA , if you require Day Trades for these markets or further Trading Education in Technical Analysis such as Elliott Wave or TradingLevels then visit the TradingLounge for a Free Trial http://tradinglounge.com.au
News
International companies trading in New York ended lower Friday as investors anticipated credit downgrades of a number of euro-zone countries that were announced after the close
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1639
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The Elliott wave count up from 1520 to the current high can be counted in Elliott wave theory in three different ways, so we should treat our opinions lightly. The first aspect is while the price is above 1600 its supported and would only short it the 1600 was the resistance. now that that is out of the way we can focus on the price action at the MediumLevel 1650, we also understand that sublevel supports are in group1 SG1 1610|1620|1630 so the expected corrective behaviour at the 1650 would naturally find supports in SG1 as its doing now, there would also be a series of retests on 1650, after about three to five swings we would simply see the 1650 MediumLevel price as support or resistance and would trade from that. We should also take the base metals on board and we use copper for this and copper is trending up and while that is the case, gold is likely to stay not only above 1600 but 1620 and retest 1650
Elliott wave: There are two way you can count the 1520 move up, two in a corrective pattern and one in an positive impulse wave, so we should tread lightly using Elliott in this degree, we should only use it in the sublevel environment for the time being. As Gold is banging its head against resistance 1650 so is the Dow at 12500, we can see the Dow developing overlapping wave structures – weakness
At a guess I would expect the corrective patterns in Gold and US Indices to expand, so keep trading ranges within sublevels degree until the patterns for both of these markets become clear, you don’t would to keep guessing the direction while we are in a corrective pattern that we don’t understand with enough certainty, the time will come to trade, patience.
There is one point of weakness that you can watch and that is Oil as oil is likely to drag the US Indices down, if the retest of 100 TL1 fails and rolls over the US Indices will feel the pressure. There is of course a holiday in the US on Monday.
Sliver While the price is above SG2 2880|2872|2865 the market is supported and you know the price is unfolding across the Major TradingLevel TL3 | 30.00 and that we don’t trade until it’s finished.Oil WTI: 99.10
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Bias changes to bearish now that the price is under 100 TL1 and we are looking at a series of retests of TL1
98.00 (mTL8) is the first MinorLevel under 100 and is the first support, the next MinorLevel is 95 (mTL5 and also a Midpoint between the 100 and 90, the next important level of the next smaller degree is sublevel 96.50, use all of these as support and resistance for entries and stops. If and once the price is under 95 as resistance then the price is part of the 90 story and you need to understand the levels above and below 90.00 MediumLevel (ML9)
Elliott wave: The Elliott wave count is down for Oil, so the series of retests of TL1 is the key for shorts. If you can match the wave count with the retests it will help your entries and stops or you may prefer to use this to trade energy sector stocks, also use the levels and the volume to confirm the price behaviour Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.63
US Nickel: Last: 8.89-
US Zinc: Last: 0.88-
US Aluminium Last: 0.94-Copper CFD: 363
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: 350 as resistance and the base metals are bias bearish, this would also reflect in other markets previous metals, currencies and stock / materials, so it’s a simple way of managing risk and direction.
That said the trend up is still displaying strength, the next resistances are SG2 365|372|380 with the 72 being the important price point, support on this creates the next level 400 MediumLevel ML4.
Expect corrective price action at SG2 which in turn will show up in other markets i.e. ASX/ AUDUSD…
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.70
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: the ABC correction is completed and the move up is well underway, if you got from 81.00 SG1 to 82.00 well done.
Expect the normal tradinglevels Classic pattern to unfold across 81.00. That is, the reaction at 81, then searching for support SG2 or the Midpoint, then a push above 81.00, creating the first high above this level. Then a larger ABC Zigzag 5-3-5 correction across 81.00, then a move to 82.00 SG1
Forex EURUSD 1.2830
TradingLevels: The Euro and SP500 are out of whack so keep an eye on that as they we pull together again. The current move up should spend time at 128, if it does find support after three swings then the target would be 12872 SG2
Elliott wave: Euro is falling sharply, definitely forming an impulsive decline with prices now headed below 1.2660 and ideally into 1.2600 zone. At the moment it’s hard to apply the wave count on that sharp move, but we know that any small bounce will be corrective and short lived
Technical Analysis: Scalping - Short using 1.2772 as the retested resistance, add on the retest of 1.2665 both of these price points are SG2, cover part position at 1.2650 as the price should bounce, look to add again as the Midpoint 12650 experiences the retest, exit at 12630.
Forex AUDUSD 1.0323
TradingLevels: AUD is dragging its feet against copper to the upside, more in line with the SP500. But the AUD is slowly establishing support but it’s not there yet, if it does find support, scale in through SG1 10310|10320|10330
Elliott wave: Once retested support is established look for a long trade to 104
Trading Strategies : Scale in using SG1 the sublevels
Indices Resistance 12500 Dow / SP500 1300 IF they become support, then markets are positive, if supports are broken Dow 12272 / SP500 1272 then negative. Dow target 12,772 SG2 if support is found on 12,500
Dow Jones CFD 12,451
Technical Analysis US Holiday Monday
TradingLevels: The 12,300 and 12,272 are the supports and they are still is play, at this stage the sharp move down is part of a corrective pattern, a move through support 12,272 then we will start to gather evidence of the larger move down and a top being in play, it was our thoughts to have the high in place last week and that may be the case, but wave structure and pricing evidence is still required, the catalyst for pulling the price down has been the European rating cuts, however it’s the Oil being under 100 that is the weight and we are seeing divergence in that.
Elliott waveThe intraday pattern from the 10th to now appears to be an ABC corrective pattern, until proven otherwise expect a move higher through 12500
Trading Strategies : Intraday wait for a retest to check support into 12400 SG1
S&P500 CFD: 1293
TradingLevels: As long as the SG2 1265|1272|1280 remain the support the market is positive.
Elliott wave: The pattern below 1300 appears corrective so still expecting a move higher through 1300. That said there is growing weakness in the trend up and we are searching for the top and the beginnings of a larger move down
Trading Strategies : For Scalping you can work the degree down from the sublevels, that is the MicroLevels, as an example, the MicroLevels between 1280 and 1290 would Group1 1281|1282|1283 the Midpoint 1285 and Group2 1286.501287.20|1288
FTSE 100 CFD: 5641
TradingLevels: Now Subgroup2 (SG2) 5665|5672|5680 is the resistance
Elliott wave: Line the pattern up with the SP500
Trading Strategies : Only go long if 5672 is the support. When the price moves up to this level SG2 the price will react, so give it time to swing around for a while before thinking going long or short.
SPI CFD 4186
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: In the Minor degree the price should have completed its corrective pattern at 4200, the safest longs would be 4200 as support, but you have to wait for this move.
Elliott wave: larger corrective pattern across 4200 once completed which it can be now, should push up in line with the audusd
Day Trading: Work any trade from SG2 4165|4172|4180 the 4172 is the important price point. The current price is 41786 I would think the 4172 SG2 would be retested; I would simply wait and see if the 4172 becomes the support or the resistance, you can expect more corrective price action under the 4200. Keep an eye on copper and shanghai in the afternoon session as the lead will come from thereTechnical Analysis Summery
The Australian Dollar and the ASX200 are enjoying the lift in base metals and this looks set to continue this week.
The Shanghai has been forming a low and even though it should pull back down from the 2300 it should find support above 2200 and then push up lifting the whole Asian region, so many of our local stock should push higher, any stock sitting on a Major TradingLevel as support would be a good start for any long trades.US, the Dow is still under the 12,500 resistance but more importantly as support it’s above the 12,272 / 12,300, while its above this support we will call the pattern between 12500 and 12300 corrective with the view of pushing higher, if the 12500 develops as support then we can look at 12,800 and 13000, however there indications of weakness in the US and European markets in the general trend up, but as long as we know our supports we will work from that basis.
US weakness can come this week as 40 large companies put their earnings forward, so far many have been downgraded. The US has a holiday Monday
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Trading QuoteOne trade should never make or break your account.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD FPI m/m 0.2%
10:30am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m -0.1%
10:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m 5.7% -6.9%
10:50am JPY CGPI y/y 1.3% 1.7%
11:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -2.7%
11:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 0.0%
11:30am AUD Home Loans m/m 1.1% 0.7%
16th-17th NZD REINZ HPI m/m 1.1%
4:00pm JPY Household Confidence 38.9 38.1
6:00pm EUR German WPI m/m 0.3% 0.7%
7:15pm CHF PPI m/m -0.4% -0.8%
All Day USD Bank Holiday
12:30am CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 2.1% 3.3%
5:00am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Tuesday, 10 January 2012
Day Trading
Watch youtube video here: http://youtu.be/ctsSRBXkvf8
Description:
Day Trading and Day Trading Strategies from the TradingLounge Education.
This Technical Analysis video is the basis for setting up our Mechanical Day Trading Methods called Robo, the Robo trades are for the AU, UK and USA , if you require Day Trades for these markets or further Trading Education in Technical Analysis such as Elliott Wave or TradingLevels then visit the TradingLounge for a Free Trial http://tradinglounge.com.au
Day Trading
Dow Jones 12,359 -0.45%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1634
Oil WTI: 102
Copper CFD: 350
US Dollar: 81.45
EURUSD 1.27480
AUDUSD 1.03
Dow Jones CFD 12,450
S&P500 CFD: 1290
FTSE 100 CFD: 5690
SPI CFD 4165
Trading Education
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks were ahead but off session highs Tuesday afternoon after strong gains overseas and an upbeat start to the U.S. earnings reporting season pushed blue-chip stocks to levels not seen since late July.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1634
Technical Analysis
Day Trading : The support is through upper levels of Subgroup1 1620 | 1630 and the MediumLevel 1650 is the resistance. The general pattern of gold is similar to many other markets, a simple breakout of a sideways pattern, these surges at the end of trends are normally on lower volume, we should be seeing tops this week. Trading Education
Elliott wave: Gold moved nice higher, in impulsive manner as expected after the prices broke through 1624 resistance of a wave (d). We know that triangles occur prior to the final leg of the larger pattern, which means that current bullish waves may find a top in the near future. The advance that we are monitoring still could be wave C of larger corrective pull-back. Now we need to be patient and let’s see if we will get signs of a top or not.
Sliver at resistance 30.00 MajorLevel, give it some time to develop support or resistance.
Oil WTI: 102
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading Oil has much the same pattern as other commodities and stocks and the move up is in line with other markets which we expect to find a top this week in Elliott terms, the tradinglevels are the trading insurance for supporting Elliott or not, in that, the price simply being above 100 MajorLevel TL1 is a positive and only long trades would be placed, now breaking that down in to Group1 {101|102|103} we can start to work out the trade, firstly if support is found on top of Group1 103, then we trade to 105. The other aspect in Group1 is trading from the main level in this case 100 to the top of group1 103 and exit and then wait for support, if found trade to 105. And another aspect if waiting for the pivot 102 to find support and move in long from there.
Elliott wave: Oil is trading nicely higher since we called end of a corrective double Zigzag pattern around $100 per barrel. Notice that move is quite sharp and has an impulsive personality through the falling corrective channel line. As such, we believe that prices will revisit 103.60 levels and even higher in this week.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.50+
US Nickel: Last: 8.79+
US Zinc: Last: 0.86+
US Aluminium Last: 0.95+
Copper CFD: 350
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The retest to 350 has taken place and this move is the same as most other markets and we are expect the other markets, more so the US Indices to top this week, if this is the case then Oil Gold Copper etc should do the same. However from a trading point of view we need to trade what we see rather than attach ourselves to an opinion, so if the 350 Midpoint develops support then it’s a positive market, but it need to be a good support, there is plenty of supply (sellers) from 350 to 365, the likely resistance numbers are 356, 357 and 358 then a more serious retest of the Midpoint, it would be this retest that will be the focus. Remember this market is a catalyst of base metals and therefor of the AUDUSD and the Materials sector on the ASX UK USA etc and is now also driven by the Shanghai Copper futures i.e China, and the sharp rise today is from comments made by China regarding spurring growth.
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.45
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading TradingLevels: Minor Group1 (MG1 {81|82|83}) it is important to understand while the price is in MG1 it is still part of the next degree higher that is the MajorLevel TL8 | 80.00 only when the top of Group1 83.00 is the support that the price is free of TL8.
Being inside Minor Group1 offers a variety of trading opportunities, however you need to be clear on what you’re doing, there are some basic strategies that can be applied, not some much as to different time frames but to different degrees of structures and in this case there the basic structure apart from the MajorLevel TL8 and the Microlevels, the MinorLevels and Sublevels (SubMinor) are the degree of structure you would start planning your trades out and there are rules how to use the levels, they are the same throughout all the degrees of structures.
In the Minor Levels (MG1 {81|82|83}) the 1 is the strongest number and the 2 is the pivot for Group1 and Group1 has its rules and characteristics depending if you’re going long or short through the Group or if your scalping the sublevels then the normal tradinglevels rules apply
Elliott Wave: The move down to 81 (mTL1) is wave a or I any bounce off 81 is wave b or ii. Because the price is still trapped in MG1 we have to be open to a larger corrective pattern across 80. That said the Pound and Euro have long term trends down so any larger corrective pattern at 80 would be sharp and short.
Forex EURUSD 1.27480
Technical Analysis: The 1.28 is the main play here, the 8 is a profit taking number, so a correctional pattern is assured, the supports under this the nest degree down is the Group2 1.2765|1.2772|1.2780 and then the group1 above 1.28 the 1.2810|1.2820|1.2830.
Elliott wave Euro made a new high in recent hour, which made the wave counts and outlook at little more complicated, simply because now a recovery can be counted in different way. It could be a corrective w)-x)-y) which is our primary count, but in such case we need immediately impulsive fall back below 1.2742, If we don't get that, and if price will trade slowly lower, then recovery from the lows could also be a leading diagonal in wave (a), of a larger and incomplete recovery.
Trading Strategies: The price is working with 1.28, the normal thing to do is to trade to 1.28 and exit. Then wait for the correction, look for the basic three swings, Elliott Zigzag then if the price climbs on 1.28 as support then work the long side using group1, there are a handful of strategies you can use in and through Group1 you just need to be clear on what you are doing. On the flip side if the 1.28 becomes the resistance then use Group2 1.2765|1.2772|1.2780 and in this case the 1.2772 is highly important as support or resistance, you would short a failed retest of 72.
The current move up is part of a Elliott wave four and wave fours can get complicated, as mentioned before we don’t normally trade wave four. The move up is likely one leg of three
Forex AUDUSD 1.03
Day Trading : I have talked about Group1 in the EarlyBird toady in different markets and it’s the same here in the AUDUSD Subgroup1 (SG1 101|102|103) however in this case the price is at the top of Group1 at 103 and if the price develops support on top of Group1 it will move higher to 105 the Midpoint, this is Subgroup1 |103 as MinorGroup1 MG1 would be at 1.30.
Elliott wave: The current move up from around the 1.0150 to 1.0350 is in three waves ABC, the corrective pullback pattern about to unfold at 103 can be wave four.
Trading Strategies : Allow the corrective pattern at 103 to unfold, at minimum look for three swings. The support apart from 103 is the next degree down and under 103, Group2 1.0265|1.0272|1.0280 which falls into the 382 – 50% retracement level for a wave four and also the wave four of one lesser degree. Wave fours can get messy.
On the upside you want 10330 as support.
Day Trading Gold, Oil and S&P Futures moved nicely higher during Asian session and supported some FX pairs, while the US dollar moved slightly lower. However at the start of the European session we can see some pressure against the Euro and Pound, which in fact could be start of some larger declines on those pairs based on the EW pattern. We believe that weakness on both will be significant if S&P Futures reaches just a temporary resistance. In fact, S&P moved out of a corrective price action that we highlighted few times in the past updates, and if we take a look on the structure of the pattern, then we can clearly see that it was a triangle. And here comes the interesting part, "Triangles unfold just prior to the final move in the larger pattern", which means that bearish reversal should follow. As such, we are observing levels from 1283-1290 for a potential top.
Dow Jones CFD 12,450
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 12500 was a target for the top of this trend, however, what is happening in price action at a level is normal for a bullish market there is no evidence yet of a top, when a price arrives at a number like this, 5 (500) is the second strongest number, this is called the arrival, then the reaction, the finding support, then the retest or the first high above the level, this would be part of the basic Classic pattern unfolding. It is the retest of supply that is the real important aspect to observe, once we can see if we are going to get a failed retest or the first high above the levels 12500 then we know what will happen next
Elliott wave: I think the correction at 12,500 is a wave four, with a wave five to 12550 the wave five being the same length roughly as wave one…
Day Trading If support can be found on 12,472 then trade up, if you have been trading up then you would have exited at 12500. You know the Dow likes to work each 100 points, this is where the corrections are. Use the sublevels to plan entries, stops and exits. Or if your scalping then the 2 minute Robo and the tradinglevels, the market runs the fasted between number 3 -5 -8 up or down
S&P500 CFD: 1290
TradingLevels: The 1,300 is the MinorLevel (mTL3) and is the top of MinorGroup1 (1100|1200|1300) so this is a very important price point, we should expect the price to have a correction above below across this level.
Elliott wave: The structure up is still going so expect he price to find a top this week at or above 1300. Count the impulse wave (5 waves) from the 1265 (SG2) up, you can see it still had further to go
Trading Strategies : If your long you should think of scaling into 1300
FTSE 100 CFD: 5690
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: You can see the impulse wave up and the 5700 is where the corrective pattern is unfolding, so allow it to unfold in three swings, if support is found on 5700 after the correction pattern then edge in long, the 5720 will also be resistance, it is part of Subgroup1 but its also a 72
Elliott wave: Same - Targets 5772 - 5800
Trading Strategies: Wait for the correction at 5700 to become fully developed then look for support (Gann liked to use 57 a lot)
SPI CFD 4165
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The target is 4200 with the SG2 in the way (6165|4172|4180) any longs would require 4172 as support
Elliott wave: Count the Impulse wave up (5 waves) up from the 4100 to 4200
Day Trading: China mentioned about spurring the economy, the trend up is the result. Expect a correction pattern at SG2 after the smallish corrective pattern look for support on 4172 add on 4180 support exit at 4198
Summary
We got our move up in most markets, now we are looking for the top which should occur this week. In the move up we are looking for an impulse wave (5 waves) I think we have the top of wave three and four is developing with the fifth wave up to go, at a very rough guess just to give shape to the pattern the Dow at 12550
Weekly Cycle; Wed higher close, Thursday open higher close lower.
Trading Quote
Nothing New In Day Trading
That enormous profits should have turned into still more colossal losses, that new theories should have been developed and later discredited, that unlimited optimism should have been succeeded by the deepest despair, are all in strict accord with age-old tradition.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
11:01am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 2.0%
4:00pm JPY Leading Indicators 92.9% 92.0%
8:00pm EUR Final GDP q/q 0.2% 0.2%
8:30pm GBP Trade Balance -8.2B -7.6B
1:00am USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
2:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.2M
6:00am USD Beige Book
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Description:
Day Trading and Day Trading Strategies from the TradingLounge Education.
This Technical Analysis video is the basis for setting up our Mechanical Day Trading Methods called Robo, the Robo trades are for the AU, UK and USA , if you require Day Trades for these markets or further Trading Education in Technical Analysis such as Elliott Wave or TradingLevels then visit the TradingLounge for a Free Trial http://tradinglounge.com.au
Day Trading
Dow Jones 12,359 -0.45%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1634
Oil WTI: 102
Copper CFD: 350
US Dollar: 81.45
EURUSD 1.27480
AUDUSD 1.03
Dow Jones CFD 12,450
S&P500 CFD: 1290
FTSE 100 CFD: 5690
SPI CFD 4165
Trading Education
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks were ahead but off session highs Tuesday afternoon after strong gains overseas and an upbeat start to the U.S. earnings reporting season pushed blue-chip stocks to levels not seen since late July.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1634
Technical Analysis
Day Trading : The support is through upper levels of Subgroup1 1620 | 1630 and the MediumLevel 1650 is the resistance. The general pattern of gold is similar to many other markets, a simple breakout of a sideways pattern, these surges at the end of trends are normally on lower volume, we should be seeing tops this week. Trading Education
Elliott wave: Gold moved nice higher, in impulsive manner as expected after the prices broke through 1624 resistance of a wave (d). We know that triangles occur prior to the final leg of the larger pattern, which means that current bullish waves may find a top in the near future. The advance that we are monitoring still could be wave C of larger corrective pull-back. Now we need to be patient and let’s see if we will get signs of a top or not.
Sliver at resistance 30.00 MajorLevel, give it some time to develop support or resistance.
Oil WTI: 102
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading Oil has much the same pattern as other commodities and stocks and the move up is in line with other markets which we expect to find a top this week in Elliott terms, the tradinglevels are the trading insurance for supporting Elliott or not, in that, the price simply being above 100 MajorLevel TL1 is a positive and only long trades would be placed, now breaking that down in to Group1 {101|102|103} we can start to work out the trade, firstly if support is found on top of Group1 103, then we trade to 105. The other aspect in Group1 is trading from the main level in this case 100 to the top of group1 103 and exit and then wait for support, if found trade to 105. And another aspect if waiting for the pivot 102 to find support and move in long from there.
Elliott wave: Oil is trading nicely higher since we called end of a corrective double Zigzag pattern around $100 per barrel. Notice that move is quite sharp and has an impulsive personality through the falling corrective channel line. As such, we believe that prices will revisit 103.60 levels and even higher in this week.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.50+
US Nickel: Last: 8.79+
US Zinc: Last: 0.86+
US Aluminium Last: 0.95+
Copper CFD: 350
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The retest to 350 has taken place and this move is the same as most other markets and we are expect the other markets, more so the US Indices to top this week, if this is the case then Oil Gold Copper etc should do the same. However from a trading point of view we need to trade what we see rather than attach ourselves to an opinion, so if the 350 Midpoint develops support then it’s a positive market, but it need to be a good support, there is plenty of supply (sellers) from 350 to 365, the likely resistance numbers are 356, 357 and 358 then a more serious retest of the Midpoint, it would be this retest that will be the focus. Remember this market is a catalyst of base metals and therefor of the AUDUSD and the Materials sector on the ASX UK USA etc and is now also driven by the Shanghai Copper futures i.e China, and the sharp rise today is from comments made by China regarding spurring growth.
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.45
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading TradingLevels: Minor Group1 (MG1 {81|82|83}) it is important to understand while the price is in MG1 it is still part of the next degree higher that is the MajorLevel TL8 | 80.00 only when the top of Group1 83.00 is the support that the price is free of TL8.
Being inside Minor Group1 offers a variety of trading opportunities, however you need to be clear on what you’re doing, there are some basic strategies that can be applied, not some much as to different time frames but to different degrees of structures and in this case there the basic structure apart from the MajorLevel TL8 and the Microlevels, the MinorLevels and Sublevels (SubMinor) are the degree of structure you would start planning your trades out and there are rules how to use the levels, they are the same throughout all the degrees of structures.
In the Minor Levels (MG1 {81|82|83}) the 1 is the strongest number and the 2 is the pivot for Group1 and Group1 has its rules and characteristics depending if you’re going long or short through the Group or if your scalping the sublevels then the normal tradinglevels rules apply
Elliott Wave: The move down to 81 (mTL1) is wave a or I any bounce off 81 is wave b or ii. Because the price is still trapped in MG1 we have to be open to a larger corrective pattern across 80. That said the Pound and Euro have long term trends down so any larger corrective pattern at 80 would be sharp and short.
Forex EURUSD 1.27480
Technical Analysis: The 1.28 is the main play here, the 8 is a profit taking number, so a correctional pattern is assured, the supports under this the nest degree down is the Group2 1.2765|1.2772|1.2780 and then the group1 above 1.28 the 1.2810|1.2820|1.2830.
Elliott wave Euro made a new high in recent hour, which made the wave counts and outlook at little more complicated, simply because now a recovery can be counted in different way. It could be a corrective w)-x)-y) which is our primary count, but in such case we need immediately impulsive fall back below 1.2742, If we don't get that, and if price will trade slowly lower, then recovery from the lows could also be a leading diagonal in wave (a), of a larger and incomplete recovery.
Trading Strategies: The price is working with 1.28, the normal thing to do is to trade to 1.28 and exit. Then wait for the correction, look for the basic three swings, Elliott Zigzag then if the price climbs on 1.28 as support then work the long side using group1, there are a handful of strategies you can use in and through Group1 you just need to be clear on what you are doing. On the flip side if the 1.28 becomes the resistance then use Group2 1.2765|1.2772|1.2780 and in this case the 1.2772 is highly important as support or resistance, you would short a failed retest of 72.
The current move up is part of a Elliott wave four and wave fours can get complicated, as mentioned before we don’t normally trade wave four. The move up is likely one leg of three
Forex AUDUSD 1.03
Day Trading : I have talked about Group1 in the EarlyBird toady in different markets and it’s the same here in the AUDUSD Subgroup1 (SG1 101|102|103) however in this case the price is at the top of Group1 at 103 and if the price develops support on top of Group1 it will move higher to 105 the Midpoint, this is Subgroup1 |103 as MinorGroup1 MG1 would be at 1.30.
Elliott wave: The current move up from around the 1.0150 to 1.0350 is in three waves ABC, the corrective pullback pattern about to unfold at 103 can be wave four.
Trading Strategies : Allow the corrective pattern at 103 to unfold, at minimum look for three swings. The support apart from 103 is the next degree down and under 103, Group2 1.0265|1.0272|1.0280 which falls into the 382 – 50% retracement level for a wave four and also the wave four of one lesser degree. Wave fours can get messy.
On the upside you want 10330 as support.
Day Trading Gold, Oil and S&P Futures moved nicely higher during Asian session and supported some FX pairs, while the US dollar moved slightly lower. However at the start of the European session we can see some pressure against the Euro and Pound, which in fact could be start of some larger declines on those pairs based on the EW pattern. We believe that weakness on both will be significant if S&P Futures reaches just a temporary resistance. In fact, S&P moved out of a corrective price action that we highlighted few times in the past updates, and if we take a look on the structure of the pattern, then we can clearly see that it was a triangle. And here comes the interesting part, "Triangles unfold just prior to the final move in the larger pattern", which means that bearish reversal should follow. As such, we are observing levels from 1283-1290 for a potential top.
Dow Jones CFD 12,450
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 12500 was a target for the top of this trend, however, what is happening in price action at a level is normal for a bullish market there is no evidence yet of a top, when a price arrives at a number like this, 5 (500) is the second strongest number, this is called the arrival, then the reaction, the finding support, then the retest or the first high above the level, this would be part of the basic Classic pattern unfolding. It is the retest of supply that is the real important aspect to observe, once we can see if we are going to get a failed retest or the first high above the levels 12500 then we know what will happen next
Elliott wave: I think the correction at 12,500 is a wave four, with a wave five to 12550 the wave five being the same length roughly as wave one…
Day Trading If support can be found on 12,472 then trade up, if you have been trading up then you would have exited at 12500. You know the Dow likes to work each 100 points, this is where the corrections are. Use the sublevels to plan entries, stops and exits. Or if your scalping then the 2 minute Robo and the tradinglevels, the market runs the fasted between number 3 -5 -8 up or down
S&P500 CFD: 1290
TradingLevels: The 1,300 is the MinorLevel (mTL3) and is the top of MinorGroup1 (1100|1200|1300) so this is a very important price point, we should expect the price to have a correction above below across this level.
Elliott wave: The structure up is still going so expect he price to find a top this week at or above 1300. Count the impulse wave (5 waves) from the 1265 (SG2) up, you can see it still had further to go
Trading Strategies : If your long you should think of scaling into 1300
FTSE 100 CFD: 5690
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: You can see the impulse wave up and the 5700 is where the corrective pattern is unfolding, so allow it to unfold in three swings, if support is found on 5700 after the correction pattern then edge in long, the 5720 will also be resistance, it is part of Subgroup1 but its also a 72
Elliott wave: Same - Targets 5772 - 5800
Trading Strategies: Wait for the correction at 5700 to become fully developed then look for support (Gann liked to use 57 a lot)
SPI CFD 4165
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The target is 4200 with the SG2 in the way (6165|4172|4180) any longs would require 4172 as support
Elliott wave: Count the Impulse wave up (5 waves) up from the 4100 to 4200
Day Trading: China mentioned about spurring the economy, the trend up is the result. Expect a correction pattern at SG2 after the smallish corrective pattern look for support on 4172 add on 4180 support exit at 4198
Summary
We got our move up in most markets, now we are looking for the top which should occur this week. In the move up we are looking for an impulse wave (5 waves) I think we have the top of wave three and four is developing with the fifth wave up to go, at a very rough guess just to give shape to the pattern the Dow at 12550
Weekly Cycle; Wed higher close, Thursday open higher close lower.
Trading Quote
Nothing New In Day Trading
That enormous profits should have turned into still more colossal losses, that new theories should have been developed and later discredited, that unlimited optimism should have been succeeded by the deepest despair, are all in strict accord with age-old tradition.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
11:01am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 2.0%
4:00pm JPY Leading Indicators 92.9% 92.0%
8:00pm EUR Final GDP q/q 0.2% 0.2%
8:30pm GBP Trade Balance -8.2B -7.6B
1:00am USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
2:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.2M
6:00am USD Beige Book
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Friday, 23 December 2011
Day Trading
If you require Day Trading trades then visit TradingLounge.com.au for Day Trading on the ASX, NYSE, NASSAQ and Indices.
Watch Day Trading video on youtube by tradinglounge: http://youtu.be/qh1YAQ-hkrA
Day TradingDow Jones 11,866 -0.02%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1598
Oil WTI CFD: 93.52
Copper CFD: 335
US Dollar CFD: 80.66
EURUSD 1.3044
AUDUSD 0.9980
Dow Jones CFD 11880
S&P500 CFD: 1215
FTSE 100 CFD: 5359
SPI CFD 4135
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- An early rally for U.S. stocks faded as investors continued fretting about Europe's debt crisis.The Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 12 points, or 0.1%, at 11856, after earlier rising nearly 100 points. Weighing on the downside was International Business Machines, which dropped 2.2%, and United Technologies, which fell 1.7%.The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index tacked on 3 points, or 0.3%, to 1219. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 14 points, or 0.6%, to 2555
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1598
Following on from the Elliott wave count from the last post, the Wave (iv) retest to 1600 is underway, yes it can pop up in SG1 of 1600 but should fade and fall lower into Wave (v) down at 1500 the MediumLevel (ML15) where it will have a larger bounce, once this bounce is over the price should work lower down through 1500. It is worth point out the significance of this 1500, it is the 50% between 1000 and 2000 and this means if the price finds 1500 as resistance then the balance is towards 1000 (TL1) and not 2000 (TL2) if this is the case then we can start working with the levels below 1500 and they are MinorLevel 1,300, 1,200, 1,100 which are Minor Group1. The normal flow down from one MajorLevel such as 2000 to 1000 is quite simple, let’s just start with 1500 the Medium level, the price would move down to this level and bounce (abc correction) this high is the first high, then the price would bounce off 1500 again creating the second high and so on until the price moved through 1500 and then retested it as resistance and supply levels would be lowering, eventually the weight of the market would be trapped under 1500 and then the same thing would happen at 1300 the top of Minor Group 1. Another point worth noting, is that the price travels quite fast down from 8 to 5 and 5 to 3 they are the best numbers to short betweenSliver The bounce off the first MinorLevel under 30.00 TL3 is 28.00 mTL3 and this is the normal level for the retest of supply i.e. 30.00 TL3 and this is the price to add to short positions, when the price moves through 28.00 also add to shorts and if it retests 28.00 short again, so split the trade up and work it around the 28.00, the much the same as you may have done above TL3. Under 28.00 is 27.72, 27.20 then 26.50 and the MediumLevel 25.00 ML25 you can cover at 25 or when Gold is at 15.00 because the wave count would be expecting a larger rally about there, but we will look at the ending of this structure into these levels and the expected rally later in the weekOil WTI CFD: 93.52
Oil basically follows Indices and Indices will soon make new lows.
The two main points here is that 95 the Midpoint is required as the resistance, this would mean the price would move below 90 towards 80 TL8.
The second point is any current rallies, firstly the price would stay under the 98 mTL8, yes this is high but it is possible on the first retest but probably unlikely, so the secondary level is 95 to 9650, the wave four of one lesser degree is around 96.00 so this would be a comfortable price point to consider, also if the price locks under 92.00 the pivot in Minor Group1 then the price is part of the 90.00 storey and any long term short stops can sit above 95.00 Once 90 is the retested resistance stops can be moved down to 93+ top of MG1.
Elliott Wave – Consider any retest of 95/96 as wave iv) and Wave v) down to 90 which would make Wave (iii) at 90, so a Wave (iv) bounce from 88 – 93 range at 90. This is still the early stages of a bear market…Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.31+
US Nickel: Last: 8.37+
US Zinc: Last: 0.84+
US Aluminium Last: 0.88+Copper CFD: 335
The rally on Friday to 337 should be Wave iv, it may move higher to 338 – 344 but that’s about it, the price should work lower below 320 as Wave v of iii), the price should keep edging down in line with the Indices.
A move below 320 the pivot of Group1 would confirm the larger downside pictureForex
US Dollar CFD: 80.66
Moving into the March 2012 Futures contract.
The Euro is moving lower into a low of wave three to 130 – 128 therefor the Dollar will do the opposite around 80 and above, the trend for the Dollar is up, but we have to expect a larger correction across 80.00, the highs should start with MinorGroup1 83.00 while the correction unfolds.
EURUSD 1.3044
TradingLevels: There’s not much to say here, we know the rally is corrective and will now be short lived. Also when talking about the number 1.30 we should also put in 1.28 and 1.2772 this will become apparent in the next swing down
Elliott Wave: The Same - Wave (iv) is unfolding at 130 and potentially can move higher, but it is corrective and once completed move down for wave five (iv)
Day Trading Strategies: The wave four is still unfolding and can get uglier, meaning the corrective pattern can simply continue to expand, that said you can start to look for short trade set ups, but keeping the stops above the high, keeping the position size very small as part of a scaling in process, the risk is high on picking tops it can take three times to get it right, that is the risk of picking tops. Also line this rally on 130 with the Dow Futures and the Dollar finding support on 80AUDUSD 0.9980
TradingLevels: The retest of 1.00 is still under way and it’s from being a little patient here, if the price finds support on 1.00 then scalp long and if the 99.72 becomes the retested resistance then look for short trade set ups.
We also have to expect in the slightly bigger picture for the price to spend time swinging across 1.00 in the 103 – 98 range, the reason for this assumption is the larger triangle pattern back from September as it has lower highs and lower highs basically driving the price into 1.00 it will in time come out from 1.00 and that’s the trend we need.
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart) A move above 1.0030 creates a larger corrective and a different wave structure, we will talk about this if it occurs
Day Trading Strategy: Continue to scalp through the sublevels while around 1.00
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 11880
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The retest pattern to 12,000 is corrective, so new lows should be made under 11,800 also meaning the 11,500 MediumLevel comes back into view and of course this opens a larger door and of course confirms Intermediate Wave (3) is underway
Elliott Wave: The bias for Intermediate Wave (3) is looking stronger than one more new high and it is the Euro that leads the way for the Indices to follow as the fear factor grows the trend down
Day Trading Strategy: 11,872 SG2 Resistance short. The 11,772 could be a small stubborn support to navigate but a quick fall is expected from the structure and the failing retest of 12,000 however work the 11,800 as the resistance as price move quick from 8 to 5 that is 11,800 to 11,500.S&P500 CFD: 1215
TradingLevels: The Pivot 1220 within SG1 of 1200 has some small resistance which helps makes the price part of 1200 story and there the 1172 SG2 zone
Wave count: As you know we cannot confirm intermediate wave (3) down yet. We can’t also rule out the markets making one more new high and the Elliott Wave count on our site reflects this bullish possibility and it may be a week before we can have evidence in the structure. The short term trend is down so being short is the correct trade.
Day Trading Strategies: Stops at 1233 wait for 1200 to be the retested resistance before adding to shorts.FTSE 100 CFD: 5359
TradingLevels: 5372 resistance for a short trade to 5300 top of Minor Group1
Elliott Wave: The pattern is the same as the Sp500 and Dow etc. the bias is down
Day Trading Strategies: Stop above 5372 if the Midpoint 5350 becomes the retested resistance then add to the position, covering a percentage at 5330, the price moving down through SG1 5330|5320|5310 will be bumpy with the target and corrective patter at 5300 mTL3
SPI CFD 4135
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: There would be a long trend trade if the 4200 became support. This doesn’t mean you couldn’t go long on 4150 as support and adding if 4172 becomes support as the 4200 and the 4172 are the current resistances.
Elliott Wave: The bounce pattern over the last few days can be bearish corrective meaning more downside, or it can be the start of a move up, the structure is not developed enough, however much the same pattern is across many other markets and they seem to be corrective meaning more downside, so the bias for a trade here is short
Day Trading Strategies: Trade short, however if the Midpoint 4150 develops as support then the bias is for a larger corrective pattern. The 4150 has not been retested, so stops would need to be above 4172 Summary
The small Elliott wave four pull back that we were talking about on Friday across most markets is now more fully developed and suggesting the next swing lower which is just about underway, this is short term technical analysis, the bigger picture is another story, as you know we have the SP500 wave count on the site and this wave count reflects the currencies wave counts and all that is fine ,we will continue working that pattern. In the EarlyBird here we have been exploring the a larger bearish picture also, that is Elliott Wave Intermediate Wave (3) unfolding the bias for this is building and it is the Euro that is being the catalyst for this as the SP500 and Euro move together, we understand the US Dollar will spend time at 80 and the Euro 130 – 128 zone for some time and the Dow will find support at the MediumLevel 11,500, if along the way the 11,500 becomes the resistance then we can look at 10,000 and lower.
From a day trading point of view we are short, if the 11,500 or we can see evidence in the wave structure of a larger pattern developing then we will be trading larger trends short
Trading QuoteTo whatever degree you haven't accepted the risk, is the same degree to which you will avoid the risk. Trying to avoid something that is unavoidable will have disastrous effects on your ability to trade successfully.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:00am NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 112.0
11:00am NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 18.3
11:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -3.1%
11:01am GBP BOE Quarterly Bulletin
8:00pm EUR Current Account -1.9B 0.5B
8:00pm EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.97B -1.84B
12:30am CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 0.6% 0.3%
2:00am USD NAHB Housing Market Index 21 20
2:30am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Free Stuff on Technical Analysis is available on TradingLounge.com.au site!
Watch Day Trading video on youtube by tradinglounge: http://youtu.be/qh1YAQ-hkrA
Day TradingDow Jones 11,866 -0.02%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1598
Oil WTI CFD: 93.52
Copper CFD: 335
US Dollar CFD: 80.66
EURUSD 1.3044
AUDUSD 0.9980
Dow Jones CFD 11880
S&P500 CFD: 1215
FTSE 100 CFD: 5359
SPI CFD 4135
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- An early rally for U.S. stocks faded as investors continued fretting about Europe's debt crisis.The Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 12 points, or 0.1%, at 11856, after earlier rising nearly 100 points. Weighing on the downside was International Business Machines, which dropped 2.2%, and United Technologies, which fell 1.7%.The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index tacked on 3 points, or 0.3%, to 1219. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 14 points, or 0.6%, to 2555
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1598
Following on from the Elliott wave count from the last post, the Wave (iv) retest to 1600 is underway, yes it can pop up in SG1 of 1600 but should fade and fall lower into Wave (v) down at 1500 the MediumLevel (ML15) where it will have a larger bounce, once this bounce is over the price should work lower down through 1500. It is worth point out the significance of this 1500, it is the 50% between 1000 and 2000 and this means if the price finds 1500 as resistance then the balance is towards 1000 (TL1) and not 2000 (TL2) if this is the case then we can start working with the levels below 1500 and they are MinorLevel 1,300, 1,200, 1,100 which are Minor Group1. The normal flow down from one MajorLevel such as 2000 to 1000 is quite simple, let’s just start with 1500 the Medium level, the price would move down to this level and bounce (abc correction) this high is the first high, then the price would bounce off 1500 again creating the second high and so on until the price moved through 1500 and then retested it as resistance and supply levels would be lowering, eventually the weight of the market would be trapped under 1500 and then the same thing would happen at 1300 the top of Minor Group 1. Another point worth noting, is that the price travels quite fast down from 8 to 5 and 5 to 3 they are the best numbers to short betweenSliver The bounce off the first MinorLevel under 30.00 TL3 is 28.00 mTL3 and this is the normal level for the retest of supply i.e. 30.00 TL3 and this is the price to add to short positions, when the price moves through 28.00 also add to shorts and if it retests 28.00 short again, so split the trade up and work it around the 28.00, the much the same as you may have done above TL3. Under 28.00 is 27.72, 27.20 then 26.50 and the MediumLevel 25.00 ML25 you can cover at 25 or when Gold is at 15.00 because the wave count would be expecting a larger rally about there, but we will look at the ending of this structure into these levels and the expected rally later in the weekOil WTI CFD: 93.52
Oil basically follows Indices and Indices will soon make new lows.
The two main points here is that 95 the Midpoint is required as the resistance, this would mean the price would move below 90 towards 80 TL8.
The second point is any current rallies, firstly the price would stay under the 98 mTL8, yes this is high but it is possible on the first retest but probably unlikely, so the secondary level is 95 to 9650, the wave four of one lesser degree is around 96.00 so this would be a comfortable price point to consider, also if the price locks under 92.00 the pivot in Minor Group1 then the price is part of the 90.00 storey and any long term short stops can sit above 95.00 Once 90 is the retested resistance stops can be moved down to 93+ top of MG1.
Elliott Wave – Consider any retest of 95/96 as wave iv) and Wave v) down to 90 which would make Wave (iii) at 90, so a Wave (iv) bounce from 88 – 93 range at 90. This is still the early stages of a bear market…Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.31+
US Nickel: Last: 8.37+
US Zinc: Last: 0.84+
US Aluminium Last: 0.88+Copper CFD: 335
The rally on Friday to 337 should be Wave iv, it may move higher to 338 – 344 but that’s about it, the price should work lower below 320 as Wave v of iii), the price should keep edging down in line with the Indices.
A move below 320 the pivot of Group1 would confirm the larger downside pictureForex
US Dollar CFD: 80.66
Moving into the March 2012 Futures contract.
The Euro is moving lower into a low of wave three to 130 – 128 therefor the Dollar will do the opposite around 80 and above, the trend for the Dollar is up, but we have to expect a larger correction across 80.00, the highs should start with MinorGroup1 83.00 while the correction unfolds.
EURUSD 1.3044
TradingLevels: There’s not much to say here, we know the rally is corrective and will now be short lived. Also when talking about the number 1.30 we should also put in 1.28 and 1.2772 this will become apparent in the next swing down
Elliott Wave: The Same - Wave (iv) is unfolding at 130 and potentially can move higher, but it is corrective and once completed move down for wave five (iv)
Day Trading Strategies: The wave four is still unfolding and can get uglier, meaning the corrective pattern can simply continue to expand, that said you can start to look for short trade set ups, but keeping the stops above the high, keeping the position size very small as part of a scaling in process, the risk is high on picking tops it can take three times to get it right, that is the risk of picking tops. Also line this rally on 130 with the Dow Futures and the Dollar finding support on 80AUDUSD 0.9980
TradingLevels: The retest of 1.00 is still under way and it’s from being a little patient here, if the price finds support on 1.00 then scalp long and if the 99.72 becomes the retested resistance then look for short trade set ups.
We also have to expect in the slightly bigger picture for the price to spend time swinging across 1.00 in the 103 – 98 range, the reason for this assumption is the larger triangle pattern back from September as it has lower highs and lower highs basically driving the price into 1.00 it will in time come out from 1.00 and that’s the trend we need.
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart) A move above 1.0030 creates a larger corrective and a different wave structure, we will talk about this if it occurs
Day Trading Strategy: Continue to scalp through the sublevels while around 1.00
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 11880
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The retest pattern to 12,000 is corrective, so new lows should be made under 11,800 also meaning the 11,500 MediumLevel comes back into view and of course this opens a larger door and of course confirms Intermediate Wave (3) is underway
Elliott Wave: The bias for Intermediate Wave (3) is looking stronger than one more new high and it is the Euro that leads the way for the Indices to follow as the fear factor grows the trend down
Day Trading Strategy: 11,872 SG2 Resistance short. The 11,772 could be a small stubborn support to navigate but a quick fall is expected from the structure and the failing retest of 12,000 however work the 11,800 as the resistance as price move quick from 8 to 5 that is 11,800 to 11,500.S&P500 CFD: 1215
TradingLevels: The Pivot 1220 within SG1 of 1200 has some small resistance which helps makes the price part of 1200 story and there the 1172 SG2 zone
Wave count: As you know we cannot confirm intermediate wave (3) down yet. We can’t also rule out the markets making one more new high and the Elliott Wave count on our site reflects this bullish possibility and it may be a week before we can have evidence in the structure. The short term trend is down so being short is the correct trade.
Day Trading Strategies: Stops at 1233 wait for 1200 to be the retested resistance before adding to shorts.FTSE 100 CFD: 5359
TradingLevels: 5372 resistance for a short trade to 5300 top of Minor Group1
Elliott Wave: The pattern is the same as the Sp500 and Dow etc. the bias is down
Day Trading Strategies: Stop above 5372 if the Midpoint 5350 becomes the retested resistance then add to the position, covering a percentage at 5330, the price moving down through SG1 5330|5320|5310 will be bumpy with the target and corrective patter at 5300 mTL3
SPI CFD 4135
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: There would be a long trend trade if the 4200 became support. This doesn’t mean you couldn’t go long on 4150 as support and adding if 4172 becomes support as the 4200 and the 4172 are the current resistances.
Elliott Wave: The bounce pattern over the last few days can be bearish corrective meaning more downside, or it can be the start of a move up, the structure is not developed enough, however much the same pattern is across many other markets and they seem to be corrective meaning more downside, so the bias for a trade here is short
Day Trading Strategies: Trade short, however if the Midpoint 4150 develops as support then the bias is for a larger corrective pattern. The 4150 has not been retested, so stops would need to be above 4172 Summary
The small Elliott wave four pull back that we were talking about on Friday across most markets is now more fully developed and suggesting the next swing lower which is just about underway, this is short term technical analysis, the bigger picture is another story, as you know we have the SP500 wave count on the site and this wave count reflects the currencies wave counts and all that is fine ,we will continue working that pattern. In the EarlyBird here we have been exploring the a larger bearish picture also, that is Elliott Wave Intermediate Wave (3) unfolding the bias for this is building and it is the Euro that is being the catalyst for this as the SP500 and Euro move together, we understand the US Dollar will spend time at 80 and the Euro 130 – 128 zone for some time and the Dow will find support at the MediumLevel 11,500, if along the way the 11,500 becomes the resistance then we can look at 10,000 and lower.
From a day trading point of view we are short, if the 11,500 or we can see evidence in the wave structure of a larger pattern developing then we will be trading larger trends short
Trading QuoteTo whatever degree you haven't accepted the risk, is the same degree to which you will avoid the risk. Trying to avoid something that is unavoidable will have disastrous effects on your ability to trade successfully.
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NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
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