Trading Strategies

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Trading Strategies 
22 DecDow Jones 12,113 +0.08%
Base Metals Mixed
US Gold CFDs: 1613
Oil WTI CFDs: 98.58
Copper CFDs: 338
US Dollar CFDs: 80.20
EURUSD 1.3060
AUDUSD 1.0070
Dow Jones CFDs 12,030
S&P500 CFD: 1238
FTSE 100 CFDs: 5400
SPI CFDs 4110

News
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- European stock markets fell Wednesday as debt worries resurfaced after the European Central Bank's first three-year funding operation for the region's banks drew more interest than expected. Losses for software company SAP AG and drug stocks also weighed.

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks fell as questions about loans to euro-zone banks and some earnings disappointments cut into Tuesday's optimism.

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFDs: 1613
Trading StrategiesIf you shorted it at 1630 then you are braver than I but well done. I’m a bit of a chicken I like to see a market confirm first, a retest on a certain price point, in this case the 1600 would be fine, so waiting for a move through 1600 to 1590 then a retest of 1600 and failing, then scaling in short adding when 1590 is retested then working the SG2 and especially the 1572 level (72) if your Day Trading.
We also have to remember that we are in a wave four and wave four can get complicated, so the move up from 1565 to the current high can just be the Wave a of a larger abc correction, at the moment we will call it competed but we now need to see the evidence of an impulse structure down (series of five waves).
One of the problems here of course is that this market is following stock / Indices and if the move up yesterday in the US Indices is Wave (i) and todays pull back is wave (ii) then the next Wave is Elliott Wave (iii) up, so Gold can follow the Indices up. We would need to see Gold split from the Indices and the catalyst for this would be the US Dollar moving up, which we now see as the abc pullback is completed but not confirmed, it you need to stay above 80 TL8, we can also look to the CAD and CHF wave counts to help us with the Dollars wave count as they will be in tune to some degree and of course the Euro and SP will be in tune which in turn can help with the Dollar doing the oppositeSliver The pattern that retested TL3 30.00 is more complete as a three wave corrective pattern and there for is the short from 30.00 with stops above the last highOil WTI CFDs: 98.58
That is five Elliott wave up from the last lows around 92.50 to 99.00 so expect an abc correction the numbers 9560 and 9800 are the strongest in this current area, of course the 100 is number 1 TL1 Oil can have its own mind but its always worth checking around to see what else its moving with like the base metalsBase Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.37+
US Nickel:             Last: 8.50+
US Zinc:                Last: 0.83-
US Aluminium       Last: 0.88-Copper CFDs: 338
Trading Strategies
Copper is moving with Gold, so we can consider the move up from the last low around 320 to the current high 344 (50% Retracement) as corrective and should roll over now. From a tradinglevels technical point while the price is above 330 Group1 its supported so we can’t short it. That said if a pattern presents itself as a bearish set up with 340 as the retested resistance we could scale in, but his would be a little dangerous will there is a positive wave count existing on the Indices, I can see the Tech Sector in the US showing the first signs of destroying the positive wave count for the Indices as its pull back is very low, it has broken any rules yet but it would be the leader  Forex
take some time, and go through the updated 4h charts posted on "Elliot Wave Counts" page, so that you will know what we are looking now. We expect further strength on stocks, which is bearish for the US dollar.

Forex US Dollar CFD: 80.20
Trading Strategies
The main point here is the first high above the level TL8 is in place and now we are in the corrective phase and the bottom line is we don’t know how large the correction will be, but if the bullish count on the US Indices is correct then this would give us some idea of the correction here, the bullish pattern in the SP500 if correct will be a impulse wave (five waves) and wave one up is completed and wave two down is underway, so wave three four and five to go, so this means the Dollar has further down side?


Forex EURUSD 1.3060
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: The Euro is following the SP500, however the pull back for the SP for wave (ii) and the move down for the Euro is should be strong and longer essentially to make new lows to 129 before a rally up
Elliott Wave: A fall from the highs must be a confirmation that we are constantly talking about. We had three waves up, and impulsive reversal, deeply into the wave (b) territory
As such, this move from the peak is first leg of some larger downtrend, which will ideally be wave 5. So as things stands right now, we are bearish on Euro while we trade below 1.3200 Bearish daily close somewhere around or below support line, will be just another bearish sign.
Trading Strategies: Work the SG2 {13080|13072|13065} with the 13072 as the retested resistance for a short, this is after a retest of 1.31 first. Anyway whatever happens use the sublevels as support and resistance and then use your indicators not the other way around.Forex AUDUSD 1.0070
TradingLevels: The price ran into supply at 1.02 and is now checking for demand at the 50% retracement level, which is essentially the where the volume was building yesterday morning when mentioned in the video to look for support on 1.0072 for a long, price does move to the next largest number, but support and resistance also line up with volume i.e. price consolidations in history
Elliott Wave: The move down from the high appears to be in five waves, therefore expect a rally off current lows 10050 as corrective, expect a corrective rally pattern up into 1.01
Trading Strategy:  Be on the right side of 10072 of course wait for the retest as support or resistance and try and work out the small Elliott pattern within SG2 impulsive or corrective, if it is corrective then it’s a continuation pattern. Also line the AUD with the SP500 patternIndices

Dow Jones CFDs 12,030
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: 12,000 support and expect a bounce in three waves
Elliott Wave: If the move up yesterday is bullish then it is Wave (i) and the current pullback is Wave (ii) we should then look at the Wave (ii) as an abc corrective pattern, so the move down is just the Wave a and a Wave b would occur next around or off the 12,000 in three wave, as b wave away have three waves ( a smaller set of abc) Once Wave b is completed the a Wave c (five waves) SO the Wave a is down as it is now and the Wave b up in three waves and the Wave c down in five waves
Trading Strategies:  If we are in a Wave (ii) pull back, that is and abc, then really we need to wait for the Wave c to complete then go long into Wave (iii), if we are correct then we are just starting the wave b off 12,000 so wait for this to complete and then trade or wave for the wave c down to complete which will be in five waves, much the same as Wave a. when the five waves are competed wait for a small move up and develop support on a level and start building a long trade in to Wave (iii).
Note: the reason I mentioned shorting Wave c, is simply because if the bullish interpretation is incorrect then the Wave c would actually be part of a larger structure downS&P500 CFDs: 1238
TradingLevels: SG1 {1210|1220|1230} is support and you need to know the significants of each level within SG1 for it to have any meaning. The resistance or the nest level is the Midpoint 1250 followed by SG2 {1265|1272|1280} if the price does move up in line with the bullish Elliott wave count then the SG2 will be an important zone you have to understand to navigate. The wave structure for the bullish count will be a Wave (iii) a powerful structure however the 1272 will be a tough line to cross, so don’t over react, observe and while you’re at it observe yourself reacting, after all part of the trading battle is against yourself 
 Wave count: One the bullish side, the move up from 1200 to 1255 is wave (i) and the current pullback is Wave (ii) next is the Wave (iii) up making new highs. The Wave (ii) should be and abc a 5-3-5 structure which will unfold next session.
Trading Strategies: Understanding the abc pattern for wave (ii) would be helpfulFTSE 100 CFDs: 5400
TradingLevels: SG2 5372 support will 5400 develop as support if so build in long in line with the SP500 wave count
Elliott Wave: The move up from 5320 to 5480 is being considered as Wave (i) and the current pull back is Wave (ii) this wave (ii) can be completed at SG2 however we should also expect that wave (ii) delivers an abc pattern, so the current move down is considered wave a of an abc correction, however the current low should stay in place so going long from SG2 would be the go
Day Trading Strategies: Long of the long at 5372 SG2 or 5400 as solid support

SPI CFDs 4110
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 4100 needs to build as support for any long trades
Elliott Wave: The move up yesterday is being considered as Wave (i) and the down last night the Wave (ii)
Day Trading Strategies: Trading the sublevels. The move down last night appears to be an impulse wave, so we are considering it part of Wave (ii) the Wave a of an abc corrective pattern, we should now see a Wave b up, Wave b will be in three waves a smaller set of abc 5-3-5, this is tricky to trade, so scalp rather than looking for the trend and therefor work the SG1. The current pull back for Wave(ii) is 618% around the 4090 so that should maintain support the actual volume support is at SG2 4072. So keep an eye on the Copper and the US Dollar you want that under 80 for a move up here as the AUD will help lift the cashSummary

As you know we have been working two counts and just moving with the bias of either count until things become clear, we started to see a bullish impulse wave yesterday in the US markets so we cut our stock shorts which were smaller position sizing because we aren’t in a trend, so it was not big deal as such. We also didn’t really go long yesterday either partly because of Xmas but mainly because the move up yesterday was an unfinished impulse wave (five waves) and once its finished as Wave (i) it will pull back for Wave (ii) which it has done and the next move is Wave (iii) up then four and five… This Wave (ii) can be completed in terms of distance down i.e. 61.8% but in terms of pattern I think its only the Wave a of an abc correction (Zigzag) so you can go long today but keeping wider stops to accommodate the Wave c down. I will explain all of this in the videoWeekly bullish cycle, Wednesday creates the weekly high and Thursday opens higher but trades down as the bear day? If this is the case then it’s the drying up of selling volume in the afternoon you build a long position and Friday should see more buying volume move in with a stronger close. However Friday on the ASX closes early because of Xmas I can’t remember what time, so you best check. If the bullish count is correct then once Friday is finished the market would be set up for a long trade in the first session when it opens again? We will have a better idea about this after the US close tonight.

Trading QuoteDon’t drink too much over Xmas, send it to box 262 Berry 2535 :-}

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous

8:45am  NZD        GDP q/q     0.1%  
Tentative  JPY        BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks      
4:00pm  JPY        BOJ Monthly Report      
8:00pm  EUR        Italian Retail Sales m/m    -0.2% -0.4%  
8:30pm  GBP        Current Account    -5.2B -2.0B  
8:30pm  GBP        Final GDP q/q    0.5% 0.5%  
8:30pm  GBP        Revised Business Investment q/q    -1.3% -1.4%  
12:30am  USD        Unemployment Claims    376K 366K  
12:30am  USD        Final GDP q/q    2.0% 2.0%  
12:30am  USD        Final GDP Price Index q/q    2.5% 2.5%  
1:55am  USD        Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment    68.1 67.7  
1:55am  USD        Revised UoM Inflation Expectations     3.1%  
2:00am  USD        CB Leading Index m/m    0.4% 0.9%  
2:00am  USD        OFHEO HPI m/m    0.3% 0.9%  
2:30am  USD        Natural Gas Storage     -102B


NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Elliott wave

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Elliott wave
Dow Jones 12,087 +2.73%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1630
Oil WTI CFD: 97.30
Copper CFD: 336
US Dollar CFD: 80.20
EURUSD 1.3080
AUDUSD 1.0070
Dow Jones CFD 12,075
S&P500 CFD: 1238
FTSE 100 CFD: 5428
SPI CFD 4080

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1630
The move above 1600 helps clear up structure and target to the 38.2% at 1630 of course take this target with a pick of salt, lets allow the wave c of (iv) play out the wave c will have five wavesSliver has not made a new high and is likely to stay under the 30.00 TL3, this also make silver weaker but we knew this already and is the preferred shortOil WTI CFD: 97.30
Stocks and commodities are in their later stages of rally, there is more upside that should complete next session. The supply zone here is the MinorLevel 98.00 and the 61.8% retracement of the last trend, the 96.50 can develop as the interim support.  Day trader can also work with 97.20 and 97.72Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.34+
US Nickel:             Last: 8.46+
US Zinc:                Last: 0.84+
US Aluminium       Last: 0.88+Copper CFD: 336
The 61.8% retracement level is up near the 350 and we have to consider this as support has developed on 330 the top of Group1.  We can see from the US Indices that there is more upside to play out the structures are two thirds completed and all of these markets are moving together, so copper should complete its rally between the 340 and 350 a guess would be 344 the pattern is an abc corrective rally and the price is in wave c which has five waves and within that it’s at the top of iiiForex
US dollar sharply lower across the board, as stocks drift higher as Housing Starts rise much higher than expected, up 9.3% in November. Many pairs are approaching their critical levels on the 4h charts; Usd/Chf lower, Cable higher and so on..... All eyes on the Aud/Usd now for even higher levels, as S&P shows more and more evidences of a low. A bullish close on the Wall Street today will be a confirmation.

US Dollar CFD: 80.20
The first high above the level (above 80) is in place, this is part of the bigger picture unfolding, the move down from the high above 81.00 is part of the corrective pattern and we have to work out what types of pattern and size.  The first thing we can look at is the short term and we can look to the US Indices, we can track the wave count up for the DJ and SP to get some idea of what will happen here. Current he price is sitting above 80 but the time this session is over the price will probably break this support and move lower,  the current move down firstly needs to be understood as five wave or three waves, if we get five waves down then after a abc rally there will be another five waves down making a larger ABC down a 5-3-5 Zigzag Elliott wave pattern. For the end of this session the price will stick to 80 and edge down, we will look at the wave structure so far in the video and trading any currency you could also use what is occurring here around 80 and the US Indices to get a feel for the market



EURUSD 1.3080
TradingLevels: From a tradinglevels perspective the current pattern at 131 is an ‘Overshoot’ pattern, simply meaning the price did not react a 131 on arrival it over shot it and the distance it overshot is the distance it will roughly fall back this is normally the first of more swings and the point being is that once it stops swinging and finds the 131 as support or resistance is where you pick up the direction, the swings will diminish into 131. The Elliott wave  has an ending structure just above the 131, however you can use the tradinglevels to confirm and position your trades in a much safer way, it is nice to have the Elliott and the levels in the same direction, however when it comes to putting money down you are safer working off the levels as support or resistance because you are working with the volume and the psychology
Elliott Wave: Wave (iv) should be completed now above the 131 however the US Indices have further to push up…
Trading Strategies: if you were long on the 13030 SG1 then you have caught the trend up, but you would have also scaled out at SG2 and 131… and now waiting to see if the Wave (iv) is completed or is there further upside, either way you would monitor the unfolding price action across 131 to develop as support or resistance, if it is support then use SG1 if its resistance use SG2AUDUSD 1.0070
TradingLevels: expect to see a series of wave fours and fives play out across 1.01 today
Elliott Wave: counting an impulse wave up, I will outline this on the 5 minute chart in the video. The larger degree of Wave (D) of IV can be completed but let’s first see if the move up develops as a larger impulse wave or corrective, the main point is to trade the current structure up
Trading Strategy:  A very clear impulse structure has emerged, once you understand the pattern and the levels you can trade with it, I will outline the path in the videoIndices

Dow Jones CFD 12,075
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The price work across both sides of 12,100 which is also the 61.8% retracement level of the move down from the 9th Dec, the Dow can rally higher to 12,200 as the Elliott wave structure up is suggesting, the SP500 resistance is 1250 a 72% rally if this becomes support then we have a larger structure up
Elliott Wave: The bounce of 1,200 for the SP500 came in on cue which in turn is the 11,800 for the Dow, we can work out the internal structure up but what does need confirming is working out is it a corrective  rally or will new highs be made to 12500+.  As you know we are working both wave counts bullish and bearish, I know this is not helpful as such, but we really do have to sit and wait for clarity in the structure
Trading Strategy:  If your long above 11,772 then well done and wait for the price pattern to unfold at 12,100 that should be the top of a wave three so a wave four across 12,100 with another push higher into 12172. Locking is some profit here at 12,100 is sensible.S&P500 CFD: 1238
TradingLevels: Well the rally sure did come in quick based of US housing data, the current price 1235 is at the 50% retracement level of the Dec 9 drop, it can fail from here, but we should expect a little more upside to 1250, however, support must be found on top of SG1 1230 before 1250 can be viewed. Another point is that all the supply (sellers) start above 1230 so what you have seen over night is not what you’re going to get now, if the market is going to move up it will creep and short trades can be looked for soon
Wave count: Working the two structures still until the medium pattern becomes clear, the move up can be a corrective rally or wave 1 of a larger five wave structure, so keep all trading in the sublevels
Trading Strategies: expecting a move down to 1230 as wave four then a push higher for wave five, the resistance is 1250 these are sublevels, there are MicroLevels if your day trading.FTSE 100 CFD: 54.28
TradingLevels: The rally up has been quite strong but it has not rally as far as the US indices in relationship to the last highs in early Dec.
Elliott Wave: The rally up is developing into an impulse wave (five waves) the current prices are near the top of wave three, you should be able to count this up, so wave four and five to go then a corrective pattern down abc?
Day Trading Strategies: day trading the sublevels with the understanding of the wave count

SPI CFD 4080
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The FSTE and the SPI have not rallied as far as the US Indices, that is the relationship to the previous highs, not that this is a big deal, it just points out the weakness of the FSTE and the SPI markets.
Elliott Wave: The Triangle pattern mentioned yesterday and the supporting trendline seem to be in tune with the bounce off the SP500 1200 61.8% support. The current move up is developing nicely as an impulse wave and should the SPI should move to 4150 where the resistance basically starts
Day Trading Strategies: The SG2 {4065|4072|4080} played out nicely. The SG1 of 4100 {4110|4120|4130} will try and hold the price to 4100, if the price finds support on top of SG1 4130 then you can trade to the Midpoint 4150 exit and wait for support to move back in.Summary

Nice intraday impulse wave up across markets,, the move was off the 1,200 61.8% retracement level of the SP500 the catalyst news was the US house stats. The impulse wave up in most cases in just over two thirds complete.
The unanswered question is still the medium term view or the Minor Wave within the Elliott structure about the market being bullish or bearish.
The Bullish structure would count like this; the impulse wave last night that is not completed yet would make wave (i) of a larger five wave structure up, which would take the Dow above 12,500…
The Bearish structure would keep the current December highs in place.Weekly bullish cycle can see Wednesday with the weekly high or rather its Thursday that Gaps open then trades down for the day, creating the weekly high. The Wednesday is more of a V shape trading day with higher close.



Trading QuoteTechnical Analysis is the religion of trading - TradingLounge

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous

8:45am  NZD        Current Account     -0.92B  
8:45am  NZD        Visitor Arrivals m/m     -7.8%  
10:30am  AUD        MI Leading Index m/m     -0.3%  
10:50am  JPY        Trade Balance    -0.28T -0.46T  
1:00pm  NZD        Credit Card Spending y/y     7.9%  
Tentative  JPY        Monetary Policy Statement      
Tentative  JPY        Overnight Call Rate    <0.10% <0.10%  
Tentative  JPY        BOJ Press Conference      
6:00pm  EUR        German Import Prices m/m    0.6% -0.3%  
Tentative  EUR        Italian Prelim GDP q/q    0.0% 0.3%  
8:30pm  GBP        MPC Meeting Minutes    0-0-9 0-0-9 
8:30pm  GBP        Public Sector Net Borrowing    13.5B 3.4B  
12:30am  CAD        Core Retail Sales m/m    0.4% 0.5%  
12:30am  CAD        Retail Sales m/m    0.4% 1.0%  
1:00am  EUR        Belgium NBB Business Climate    -11.1 -12.2  
2:00am  EUR        Consumer Confidence    -21 -20  
2:00am  USD        Existing Home Sales    5.04M 4.97M  
2:30am  USD        Crude Oil Inventories     -1.9M  
Tentative  USD        Treasury Currency Report  


NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

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Trading Education

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Trading Education
Dow Jones 11,768 -0.88%
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1598
Oil WTI CFD: 93.80
Copper CFD: 330
US Dollar CFD: 80.66
EURUSD 1.3010
AUDUSD 0.9910
Dow Jones CFD 11880
S&P500 CFD: 1212
FTSE 100 CFD: 5358
SPI CFD 4080News
NEW YORK - (Dow Jones) - US stocks fell Monday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi made cautious comments on the state of Europe's economy and as bank stocks sagged in expectation of tighter capital standards.CFD Commodities US Gold CFD: 1598
Trading Education;
The current move up is still considered a Wave (iv) rally while the Fibo 38.2% retracement level is around the 1630.
became the resistance then the Wave (iv) is likely completed and Wave (v) down is under way.
I will go over the possible smaller wave counts in the video, such as the 1600 holding as resistance.Silver  The retest from 28.00 up, close to 30.00, can just be the Wave a of an abc correction or, that this retest can be completed. Wave four corrections can be complicated sideways patterns. From a trading point of view, there is the safe way and the more proactive way and that would be layering in short positions close to 30.00 and then adding as 29.00 becomes the resistance, then 28.00.However you would need to be clear on the management by either keeping the stops above 30.00 (31.37) or working much closer to the corrective pattern. So, tthere is no correct way, only your way and the risk you accept.Oil WTI CFD: 93.80
Oil, copper and gold have much the same wave count, a Wave four correctional rally that should be short lived. 38.2% is around 96.00.
The other aspect is that oil is working the Midpoint 95.00. It’s starting the series of retests from the support of Minor Group1 93.00, while the battle at 95.00 should eventually fail and the price test lower into 90.00 or at least deeper into MG1. If over the sessions ahead the 95.00 finds support then the short term's bias is bullish, however we monitor the 95/96 as the resistance delivered by wave four.Base Metals US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.27-
US Nickel:             Last: 8.24-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.83-
US Aluminium       Last: 0.87-Copper CFD: 330
Trading Education;
The wave four rally in copper started before gold and oil, so we can use this as a lead.
The current high around 337 can be the high of the rally or it can be just the first leg that’s the problem with wave fours, things like triangles occur in wave fours, the main point is that its corrective and should at most move sideways.
The TradingLevels, the price has found support on Group1 {330|320|310}, only when the price is locked under the pivot 320 can the price be pulled down under 300 TL3.  We did understand that the price would struggle and bounce around Group1, so we know what is happening here, the pattern is corrective wave four in Group1, so we aren’t going to see a trend, we are seeing and continue to see supports and choppy price action. The advantage here is the pattern lead over other commodities.
Support on 330 the top of Group1 is support.Forex Trading Education; Technical AnalysisUS Dollar CFD: 80.66
The Dollar is basically going to stick to 80 TL8 and for a solid trend up would come from a support off the 80, it is very early days yet, the price is still working through the first high above the level TL8. Drilling down into the first high above the level, the price should make another high above the last high then fold down to 80. If you are going to trade it long then you would have to wait for 81.00 to develop as support with stops under the SG2 {80.65|80.72|80.80} without this support the price has bias to fold back to 80 from under the 81.00. You should also consider working longs through SG1 in the right way, that is scaling in through SG1, this way the market is proving itself, sure it’s less profitable but its more profitable over the long run because you have control the exposure EURUSD 1.3010
Trading Education;
TradingLevels: The corrective pattern on 130 is still going and it’s not tradable while its in SG1 of 130, if it finds support on 1330 then trade long  to 131 area or if the 130 becomes resistance then the corrective pattern is completed and the next move down is under way and the 1.280 and 1.2772 is the important price point
Elliott Wave: The Same - Wave (iv) is unfolding at 130 and potentially can move higher to 131, but it is corrective and once completed move down for wave five (v) of 3
Trading Strategies: Support on 1330 trade long. 1.30 as retested resistance trade shortAUDUSD 0.9910
Trading Education;
TradingLevels: Resistance 1.00 Support 98.00 The retesting pattern is much the same as the Euro and Commodities basically a small wave four, the question is, is it completed. It can be but it can also only be the first leg of three legs/ swings, if it is three swings its not going very far from the 1.00 and if it is completed then expect a move to 98 and to trade that would need to see 99 as resistance…
Elliott Wave: short term, expect a bounce off 99 in three waves then down through 99
Trading Strategy:  Continue to scalp through the sublevels while around 1.00
Announcement: 11:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes      Indices Dow Jones CFD 11880
Trading Education; Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The trend is down until proven otherwise, yes there is support on 11,800/11,772 SG2 for the Dow and 1,200 for the SP500 and 4000 for the ASX and the Dollar will stick to 80, so it is a juncture to be careful of a reversal to the upside as we have a wave count to match, as you can see on our SP500 charts.
However there is the case for a large move down from here as I have been talking about in the EarlyBird section and the US Treasuries support this downside in fact they are leading the way down the yields are very weak (when Stocks are Down Yields are Down and Dollar is Up and vice versa) or you can use the TLT; When stocks are up, yields are up, TLT is down and dollar is down; and vice-versa! iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (the Fund) seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index (the Index). The Index measures the performance of public obligations of the United States Treasury that have a remaining maturity of 20 or more years.
Elliott Wave: The bearish count requires 11,800 as the resistance after it finishes bouncing, the SP500 needs 1,200 as resistance, this will take time
Trading Strategy:  Long above 11,772 and short below, wait for these price point to be tested before committingS&P500 CFD: 1212
Trading Education;
TradingLevels: 1,200 support, also the 61.8% retracement support and we are seeing support above 1,200 within SG1 {1230|1220|1210} As you know we have a wave count for the upside off the 61.8% 1,200 so while the price is above 1,200 we have to seriously consider the prospect of a rally.  If and when the 1,200 becomes resistance then we can look at a larger bearish picture. It’s not that we are going to miss anything, our main job is not to lose money while the structure develops a direction
Wave count: Working two structures one bullish and one bearish, one of them will become clear for the main trend, but in the meantime the smaller trend is down so short term bias is down.
Trading Strategies: bring stops down to 1227FTSE 100 CFD: 5358
Trading Education;
TradingLevels: As the 1,200 is the support for the SP500 the 5300 top of Minor Group1 is the support for the FSTE.
Elliott Wave: The pattern is the same as the Sp500 and Dow etc. the bias is down.
Day Trading Strategies: Just trade between the sublevels as the price is moving closer to support at 5300.SPI CFD 4080
Trading Education; Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: If 4100 becomes the resistance then the price would work lower to 4000 where it would likely bounce up in three waves.
Elliott Wave: The pattern on 4000 over the Oct Nov period is open for interpretation, however it is forming a triangle pattern and that means when its completed a move down will occur. So what does completed look like, well a triangle in Elliott theory is five swings abcde and so far we have the abcd the current low can be the wave d, so eventually we would see a wave e up, how far would the wave e go, the 4200 is the pivot within Minor Group1 so I could see it finding support on 4200 based off the current low the 61.8% would be the 4200.
Day Trading Strategies: Move stops down to last high above 4100 after the second retest of 4100. New trades need to work SG2 (4080|4072|4065) then the Midpoint, there is a daily trend line cutting through the 4030 – 4050 are double check this. Essentially one the market opens and settle being on the right side of 4072 is the starting line.Trading Education SummaryWe have to continue to trade small ranges with small position sizes until the market develops a clear direction. As you know there are two possible wave counts for the US markets and their pivots are 11772 for the Dow, and 1200 for the SP500. The Asian region appears weaker in line with commodities; we should see support on the 4000 for the ASX200 and a possible bounce. The only lead I can see is from US Treasuries yields to the downside and stocks should fall in line with this and this makes sense as the primary focus is the bond market. But we cannot simply forget about the wave count we have on the SP500.

There is nothing we can do at the moment that I can see to cement a direction in the medium term, it is safer to use the daily Robo. Its a reasonable way to manage risk and let the market trade for you. There are stocks going up and stocks going down, but it doesn’t really matter as long as you set the orders up in front of the market and let the market trade for you. The Robo has a high probability to get you into profit from the entry, so if you take 30% profit by 11.00AM then you have a free trade, then continue as normal with the trade using the Robo, levels and volume.Trading Quote"I'm always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money. Don't focus on making money, focus on protecting what you have"Today's Financial Events Time       Currency   Detail                                   Forecast     Previous10:00am    AUD        CB Leading Index m/m                     0.1%  
11:01am    GBP        GfK Consumer Confidence                  -30 -31  
Tentative  GBP        Nationwide Consumer Confidence           34           36  
11:30am    AUD        Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes      
3:30pm     JPY        All Industries Activity m/m              1.2%         -0.9%  
6:00pm     CHF        Trade Balance                            2.47B        2.15B  
6:00pm     EUR        German PPI m/m    0.1% 0.2%  
6:00pm     EUR        GfK German Consumer Climate              5.5          5.6  
8:00pm     EUR        German Ifo Business Climate              106.2        106.6  
10:00pm    GBP        CBI Realized Sales                       -15           -19  
11:00pm    CAD        Core CPI m/m                             0.2%         0.3%  
11:00pm    CAD        CPI m/m                                  0.3%         0.2%  
12:30am    USD        Building Permits                         0.63M        0.64M  
12:30am    USD        Housing Starts                           0.64M        0.63MWant to follow our EarlyBird plus our Trades, trading Strategies and Education? 

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Technical Analysis

Watch Video on Technical Analysis at youtube link- http://youtu.be/nyKKI-xx5ns
Video Description: Technical Analysis video by TradingLounge’s Peter Mathers Technical Analyst out lines the Trading Strategies - Tradinglevels and Elliott Wave for CFD Day Trading in the ASX NYSE NASDAQ  in the day ahead, this video is trading education. And No CFD Trades are show here just the Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Report
Dow Jones 11,768 -0.88%
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1598
Oil WTI CFD: 93.80
Copper CFD: 330
US Dollar CFD: 80.66
EURUSD 1.3010
AUDUSD 0.9910
Dow Jones CFD 11880
S&P500 CFD: 1212
FTSE 100 CFD: 5358
SPI CFD 4080

News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks fell Monday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi made cautious comments on the state of Europe's economy and as bank stocks sagged in expectation of tighter capital standards.

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1598
Technical Analysis
The current move up, is still considered a Wave (iv) rally, the Fibo 38.2% retracement level is around the 1630.
As you know wave fours are normally the complicated structures, so we need to accommodate this in our thinking of the pattern. If the 1572 became the resistance then the Wave (iv) is likely completed and Wave (v) down is under way.
I will go over the possible smaller wave counts in the video, such as the 1600 holding as resistanceSliver The retest from 28.00 up close to 30.00 can just be the Wave a of an abc correction or that this retest can be completed, wave four corrections can be complicated sideways patterns. From a trading point of view, there is the safe way and the more proactive way and that would be layering in short positions close to 30.00 and then adding as 29.00 becomes the resistance then 28.00, however you would need to be clear on the management, either keeping the stops above 30.00 (31.37) or work much closer to the corrective pattern, there is no correct way, only your way and the risk you accept. Oil WTI CFD: 93.80
Technical Analysis
Oil, copper gold etc. have much the same wave count, a Wave four correctional rally that should be short lived. 38.2% is around 96.00
The other aspect is Oil is working the Midpoint 95.00, it’s starting the series of retests from the support of Minor Group1 93.00, the battle at 95 should eventually fail and the price test lower into 90 or at least deeper into MG1
If over the sessions ahead the 95.00 finds support then the short terms bias is bullish, however we monitor the 95/96 as the resistance delivered by wave four.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.27-
US Nickel:             Last: 8.24-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.83-
US Aluminium       Last: 0.87-Copper CFD: 330
Technical Analysis
The wave four rally in copper started before gold and oil, so we can use this as a lead.
The current high around 337 can be the high of the rally or it can be just the first leg that’s the problem with wave fours, things like triangles occur in wave fours, the main point is that its corrective and should at most move sideways.
The TradingLevels, the price has found support on Group1 {330|320|310}, only when the price is locked under the pivot 320 can the price be pulled down under 300 TL3.  We did understand that the price would struggle and bounce around Group1, so we know what is happening here, the pattern is corrective wave four in Group1, so we aren’t going to see a trend, we are seeing and continue to see supports and choppy price action. The advantage here is the pattern lead over other commodities.
Support on 330 the top of Group1 is support.Forex

US Dollar CFD: 80.66
Technical Analysis
there’s not much movement in currencies or Indices. 
The Dollar is basically going to stick to 80 TL8 and for a solid trend up would come from a support off the 80, it is very early days yet, the price is still working through the first high above the level TL8. Drilling down into the first high above the level, the price should make another high above the last high then fold down to 80. If you are going to trade it long then you would have to wait for 81.00 to develop as support with stops under the SG2 {80.65|80.72|80.80} without this support the price has bias to fold back to 80 from under the 81.00. You should also consider working longs through SG1 in the right way, that is scaling in through SG1, this way the market is proving itself, sure it’s less profitable but its more profitable over the long run because you have control the exposure



EURUSD 1.3010
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The corrective pattern on 130 is still going and it’s not tradable while its in SG1 of 130, if it finds support on 1330 then trade long  to 131 area or if the 130 becomes resistance then the corrective pattern is completed and the next move down is under way and the 1.280 and 1.2772 is the important price point
Elliott Wave: The Same - Wave (iv) is unfolding at 130 and potentially can move higher to 131, but it is corrective and once completed move down for wave five (v) of 3
Trading Strategies: Support on 1330 trade long. 1.30 as retested resistance trade shortAUDUSD 0.9910
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Resistance 1.00 Support 98.00 The retesting pattern is much the same as the Euro and Commodities basically a small wave four, the question is, is it completed. It can be but it can also only be the first leg of three legs/ swings, if it is three swings its not going very far from the 1.00 and if it is completed then expect a move to 98 and to trade that would need to see 99 as resistance…
Elliott Wave: short term, expect a bounce off 99 in three waves then down through 99
Trading Strategy:  Continue to scalp through the sublevels while around 1.00
11:30am  AUD        Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes      

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11880
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The trend is down until proven otherwise, yes there is support on 11,800/11,772 SG2 for the Dow and 1,200 for the SP500 and 4000 for the ASX and the Dollar will stick to 80, so it is a juncture to be careful of a reversal to the upside as we have a wave count to match, as you can see on our SP500 charts.
However there is the case for a large move down from here as I have been talking about in the EarlyBird section and the US Treasuries support this downside in fact they are leading the way down the yields are very weak (when Stocks are Down Yields are Down and Dollar is Up and vice versa) or you can use the TLT; When stocks are up, yields are up, TLT is down and dollar is down; and vice-versa! iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (the Fund) seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index (the Index). The Index measures the performance of public obligations of the United States Treasury that have a remaining maturity of 20 or more years.
Elliott Wave: The bearish count requires 11,800 as the resistance after it finishes bouncing, the SP500 needs 1,200 as resistance, this will take time
Trading Strategy:  Long above 11,772 and short below, wait for these price point to be tested before committingS&P500 CFD: 1212
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: 1,200 support, also the 61.8% retracement support and we are seeing support above 1,200 within SG1 {1230|1220|1210} As you know we have a wave count for the upside off the 61.8% 1,200 so while the price is above 1,200 we have to seriously consider the prospect of a rally.  If and when the 1,200 becomes resistance then we can look at a larger bearish picture.
It’s not that we are going to miss anything, our main job is not to lose money while the structure develops a direction
Wave count: Working two structures one bullish and one bearish, one of them will become clear for the main trend, but in the meantime the smaller trend is down so short term bias is down
Trading Strategies: bring stops down to 1227FTSE 100 CFD: 5358
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: As the 1,200 is the support for the SP500 the 5300 top of Minor Group1 is the support for the FSTE
Elliott Wave: The pattern is the same as the Sp500 and Dow etc. the bias is down
Day Trading Strategies: Just trade between the sublevels as the price is moving closer to support at 5300

SPI CFD 4080
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: If 4100 becomes the resistance then the price would work lower to 4000 where it would likely bounce up in three waves
Elliott Wave: The pattern on 4000 over the Oct Nov period is open for interpretation, however it is forming a triangle pattern and that means when its completed a move down will occur. So what does completed look like, well a triangle in Elliott theory is five swings abcde and so far we have the abcd the current low can be the wave d, so eventually we would see a wave e up, how far would the wave e go, the 4200 is the pivot within Minor Group1 so I could see it finding support on 4200 based off the current low the 61.8% would be the 4200.
Day Trading Strategies: Move stops down to last high above 4100 after the second retest of 4100. New trades need to work SG2 {4080|4072|4065} then the Midpoint, there is a daily trend line cutting through the 4030 – 4050 are double check this. Essentially one the market opens and settle being on the right side of 4072 is the starting line.Technical Analysis Summary

We have to continue to trade small ranges with small position sizing’s, until the market develops a clear direction.
As you know there are two possible wave counts for the US markets and they pivot are the 11,772 for the Dow and 1,200 for the SP500.The Asian region appears weaker in line with commodities; we should see support on the 4000 for the ASX200 and a possible bounce.The only lead I can see is from US Treasuries yields to the downside and stocks should fall in line with this and this makes sense as the primary focus is the bond market. But we cannot simply forget about the wave count we have on the SP500. There is nothing we can do at the moment that I can see to cement a direction in the medium term, it is safer to use the daily Robo it is a reasonable way to manage risk and let the market trade for you. There are stocks going up and stocks going down, but it doesn’t really matter as long as you set the orders up in front of the market and let the market trade for you. The Robo has a high probability to get you into profit from the entry, so if you take 30% profit by 11.00AM then you have a free trade, then continue normal with the trade using the Robo, levels and volume.
Trading Quote"I'm always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money. Don't focus on making money, focus on protecting what you have"

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous

10:00am  AUD        CB Leading Index m/m     0.1%  
11:01am  GBP        GfK Consumer Confidence    -30 -31  
Tentative  GBP        Nationwide Consumer Confidence    34 36  
11:30am  AUD        Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes      
3:30pm  JPY        All Industries Activity m/m    1.2% -0.9%  
6:00pm  CHF        Trade Balance    2.47B 2.15B  
6:00pm  EUR        German PPI m/m    0.1% 0.2%  
6:00pm  EUR        GfK German Consumer Climate    5.5 5.6  
8:00pm  EUR        German Ifo Business Climate    106.2 106.6  
10:00pm  GBP        CBI Realized Sales    -15 -19  
11:00pm  CAD        Core CPI m/m    0.2% 0.3%  
11:00pm  CAD        CPI m/m    0.3% 0.2%  
12:30am  USD        Building Permits    0.63M 0.64M  
12:30am  USD        Housing Starts    0.64M 0.63M

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Free Stuff on Technical Analysis is available on TradingLounge.com.au site! 

Day Trading

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Watch Day Trading video on youtube by tradinglounge: http://youtu.be/qh1YAQ-hkrA

Day TradingDow Jones 11,866 -0.02%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1598
Oil WTI CFD: 93.52
Copper CFD: 335
US Dollar CFD: 80.66
EURUSD 1.3044
AUDUSD 0.9980
Dow Jones CFD 11880
S&P500 CFD: 1215
FTSE 100 CFD: 5359
SPI CFD 4135

News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- An early rally for U.S. stocks faded as investors continued fretting about Europe's debt crisis.The Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 12 points, or 0.1%, at 11856, after earlier rising nearly 100 points. Weighing on the downside was International Business Machines, which dropped 2.2%, and United Technologies, which fell 1.7%.The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index tacked on 3 points, or 0.3%, to 1219. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 14 points, or 0.6%, to 2555

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1598
Following on from the Elliott wave count from the last post, the Wave (iv) retest to 1600 is underway, yes it can pop up in SG1 of 1600 but should fade and fall lower into Wave (v) down at 1500 the MediumLevel (ML15) where it will have a larger bounce, once this bounce is over the price should work lower down through 1500. It is worth point out the significance of this 1500, it is the 50% between 1000 and 2000 and this means if the price finds 1500 as resistance then the balance is towards 1000 (TL1) and not 2000 (TL2) if this is the case then we can start working with the levels below 1500 and they are MinorLevel 1,300, 1,200, 1,100 which are Minor Group1. The normal flow down from one MajorLevel such as 2000 to 1000 is quite simple, let’s just start with 1500 the Medium level, the price would move down to this level and bounce (abc correction) this high is the first high, then the price would bounce off 1500 again creating the second high and so on until the price moved through 1500 and then retested it as resistance and supply levels would be lowering, eventually the weight of the market would be trapped under 1500 and then the same thing would happen at 1300 the top of Minor Group 1. Another point worth noting, is that the price travels quite fast down from 8 to 5 and 5 to 3 they are the best numbers to short betweenSliver The bounce off the first MinorLevel under 30.00 TL3 is 28.00 mTL3 and this is the normal level for the retest of supply i.e. 30.00 TL3 and this is the price to add to short positions, when the price moves through 28.00 also add to shorts and if it retests 28.00 short again, so split the trade up and work it around the 28.00, the much the same as you may have done above TL3. Under 28.00 is 27.72, 27.20 then 26.50 and the MediumLevel 25.00 ML25 you can cover at 25 or when Gold is at 15.00 because the wave count would be expecting a larger rally about there, but we will look at the ending of this structure into these levels and the expected rally later in the weekOil WTI CFD: 93.52
Oil basically follows Indices and Indices will soon make new lows.

The two main points here is that 95 the Midpoint is required as the resistance, this would mean the price would move below 90 towards 80 TL8.
The second point is any current rallies, firstly the price would stay under the 98 mTL8, yes this is high but it is possible on the first retest but probably unlikely, so the secondary level is 95 to 9650, the wave four of one lesser degree is around 96.00 so this would be a comfortable price point to consider, also if the price locks under 92.00 the pivot in Minor Group1 then the price is part of the 90.00 storey and any long term short stops can sit above 95.00 Once 90 is the retested resistance stops can be moved down to 93+ top of MG1.
Elliott Wave – Consider any retest of 95/96 as wave iv) and Wave v) down to 90 which would make Wave (iii) at 90, so a Wave (iv) bounce from 88 – 93 range at 90.  This is still the early stages of a bear market…Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.31+
US Nickel:             Last: 8.37+
US Zinc:                Last: 0.84+
US Aluminium       Last: 0.88+Copper CFD: 335
The rally on Friday to 337 should be Wave iv, it may move higher to 338 – 344 but that’s about it, the price should work lower below 320 as Wave v of iii), the price should keep edging down in line with the Indices.
A move below 320 the pivot of Group1 would confirm the larger downside pictureForex

US Dollar CFD: 80.66
Moving into the March 2012 Futures contract.
The Euro is moving lower into a low of wave three to 130 – 128 therefor the Dollar will do the opposite around 80 and above, the trend for the Dollar is up, but we have to expect a larger correction across 80.00, the highs should start with MinorGroup1 83.00 while the correction unfolds.



EURUSD 1.3044
TradingLevels: There’s not much to say here, we know the rally is corrective and will now be short lived. Also when talking about the number 1.30 we should also put in 1.28 and 1.2772 this will become apparent in the next swing down
Elliott Wave: The Same - Wave (iv) is unfolding at 130 and potentially can move higher, but it is corrective and once completed move down for wave five (iv)
Day Trading Strategies: The wave four is still unfolding and can get uglier, meaning the corrective pattern can simply continue to expand, that said you can start to look for short trade set ups, but keeping the stops above the high, keeping the position size very small as part of a scaling in process, the risk is high on picking tops it can take three times to get it right, that is the risk of picking tops.  Also line this rally on 130 with the Dow Futures and the Dollar finding support on 80AUDUSD 0.9980
TradingLevels: The retest of 1.00 is still under way and it’s from being a little patient here, if the price finds support on 1.00 then scalp long and if the 99.72 becomes the retested resistance then look for short trade set ups.
We also have to expect in the slightly bigger picture for the price to spend time swinging across 1.00 in the 103 – 98 range, the reason for this assumption is the larger triangle pattern back from September as it has lower highs and lower highs basically driving the price into 1.00 it will in time come out from 1.00 and that’s the trend we need.
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart) A move above 1.0030 creates a larger corrective and a different wave structure, we will talk about this if it occurs
Day Trading Strategy:  Continue to scalp through the sublevels while around 1.00


Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11880
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The retest pattern to 12,000 is corrective, so new lows should be made under 11,800 also meaning the 11,500 MediumLevel comes back into view and of course this opens a larger door and of course confirms Intermediate Wave (3) is underway
Elliott Wave: The bias for Intermediate Wave (3) is looking stronger than one more new high and it is the Euro that leads the way for the Indices to follow as the fear factor grows the trend down
Day Trading Strategy:  11,872 SG2 Resistance short. The 11,772 could be a small stubborn support to navigate but a quick fall is expected from the structure and the failing retest of 12,000 however work the 11,800 as the resistance as price move quick from 8 to 5 that is 11,800 to 11,500.S&P500 CFD: 1215
TradingLevels: The Pivot 1220 within SG1 of 1200 has some small resistance which helps makes the price part of 1200 story and there the 1172 SG2 zone
Wave count: As you know we cannot confirm intermediate wave (3) down yet. We can’t also rule out the markets making one more new high and the Elliott Wave count on our site reflects this bullish possibility and it may be a week before we can have evidence in the structure. The short term trend is down so being short is the correct trade.
Day Trading Strategies: Stops at 1233 wait for 1200 to be the retested resistance before adding to shorts.FTSE 100 CFD: 5359
TradingLevels: 5372 resistance for a short trade to 5300 top of Minor Group1
Elliott Wave: The pattern is the same as the Sp500 and Dow etc. the bias is down
Day Trading Strategies: Stop above 5372 if the Midpoint 5350 becomes the retested resistance then add to the position, covering a percentage at 5330, the price moving down through SG1 5330|5320|5310 will be bumpy with the target and corrective patter at 5300 mTL3  

SPI CFD 4135
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: There would be a long trend trade if the 4200 became support. This doesn’t mean you couldn’t go long on 4150 as support and adding if 4172 becomes support as the 4200 and the 4172 are the current resistances.
Elliott Wave: The bounce pattern over the last few days can be bearish corrective meaning more downside, or it can be the start of a move up, the structure is not developed enough, however much the same pattern is across many other markets and they seem to be corrective meaning more downside, so the bias for a trade here is short
Day Trading Strategies: Trade short, however if the Midpoint 4150 develops as support then the bias is for a larger corrective pattern. The 4150 has not been retested, so stops would need to be above 4172 Summary

The small Elliott wave four pull back that we were talking about on Friday across most markets is now more fully developed and suggesting the next swing lower which is just about underway, this is short term technical analysis, the bigger picture is another story, as you know we have the SP500 wave count on the site and this wave count reflects the currencies wave counts and all that is fine ,we will continue working that pattern.  In the EarlyBird here we have been exploring the a larger bearish picture also, that is Elliott Wave Intermediate Wave (3) unfolding the bias for this is building and it is the Euro that is being the catalyst for this as the SP500 and Euro move together, we understand the US Dollar will spend time at 80 and the Euro 130 – 128 zone for some time and the Dow will find support at the MediumLevel 11,500, if along the way the 11,500 becomes the resistance then we can look at 10,000 and lower.
From a day trading point of view we are short, if the 11,500 or we can see evidence in the wave structure of a larger pattern developing then we will be trading larger trends short
Trading QuoteTo whatever degree you haven't accepted the risk, is the same degree to which you will avoid the risk. Trying to avoid something that is unavoidable will have disastrous effects on your ability to trade successfully.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous

8:00am  NZD        Westpac Consumer Sentiment     112.0  
11:00am  NZD        NBNZ Business Confidence     18.3  
11:01am  GBP        Rightmove HPI m/m     -3.1%  
11:01am  GBP        BOE Quarterly Bulletin      
8:00pm  EUR        Current Account    -1.9B 0.5B  
8:00pm  EUR        Italian Trade Balance    -0.97B -1.84B  
12:30am  CAD        Wholesale Sales m/m    0.6% 0.3%  
2:00am  USD        NAHB Housing Market Index    21 20  
2:30am  EUR        ECB President Draghi Speaks

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Free Stuff on Technical Analysis is available on TradingLounge.com.au site! 

CFD Trading Report

To get Free Access to the CFD Trading Report click on Treading Education from TradingLounge.com.au
CFD Trading Report, This is a technical analysis report looking at the strength and weakness of the global market drivers, from this report we start applying our CFD Trading Strategies and CFD Trading Systems to the market direction.

Watch video on CFD Trading Report here at youtube: http://youtu.be/YqQTX-9Y-Fw

Dow Jones – 11,905 +0.69%  (6.30AM)
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1577
Oil WTI CFD: 95.74
Copper CFD: 326
US Dollar CFD: 80.30
EURUSD 1.30
AUDUSD 0.9933
Dow Jones CFD 11880
S&P500 CFD: 1220
FTSE 100 CFD: 5400
SPI CFD 4150

News
U.S. stocks sank for a third straight day as falling commodity prices added to investor NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks gained after investors took heart from stronger U.S. economic data, but fell off session highs after the head of the International Monetary Fund stoked fears that Europe's sovereign-debt crisis is worsening.

Stocks rose after the Labour Department said a seasonally adjusted 366,000 workers filed initial jobless claims in the week ended Dec. 10, well below forecasts and the lowest since May 2008. The figures were the latest indication the weak jobs market is slowly building strength. The four-week moving average of new jobless claims fell to its lowest level since July 2008.

CFD Trading Report Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1577
Elliott wave count, finishing wave v) of (iii) into 1560 – 1550 then Wave (iv) a sideways corrective pattern within the range of 1550 – 1600. Once completed then Wave (v) down to 1500.  Wave (iv) can get complicated, it’s a place that short term traders can lose money getting stopped out etc. it can really do your head in, so either stay short with wide stop above 1600 and take part profit here to 1550 or leave Wave (iv) alone once it bounces off 1550Sliver no change, just the bounce off mTL8 | 28.00 to retest 30.00 then down again. However the rest to 30.00 may not make it that far, study the corrective rally pattern (small wave four) and work with the 29.00 and sublevels around 2900Oil WTI CFD: 95.74
Oil is vibrating around the Midpoint 95 and will drop lower once completed into Minor Group1 93|92|91 expect the price to bounce around a lot into MG1, its likely to bounce from 93 back to 95, then down into 92 and this is where the support is, sure the is MediumLevel support at 90.00 which is the MediumLevel. We also have to be aware of another wave count, I have mentioned the pattern down in the Global indices can be bullish corrective as it has confirmed the larger downside as yet, so the oil can be a larger ABC pattern down from 100 to 90 and then a move back above 100 in line with Indices making one more new high, this is not a matter of opinions, it’s a wave count that needs to play out one way or the other and we need to be aware of it, I will outline this in today’s video. However at the moment the trend is down and we are trading down, but we must also scale out profits into the 90 and if the 90 becomes the resistance then move back in short, this way we can accommodate any possible uprising in a balanced way  Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.24-
US Nickel:             Last: 8.06+
US Zinc:                Last: 0.83-
US Aluminium       Last: 0.87+Copper CFD: 326
Base Metals are slightly positive today, we should expect support and bouncing around a lot within Minor Group1 330|320|310 the price should stay under 338 and eventually get trapped further into MG1. As mentioned in Oil an Alternative count across all markets is possible and today is about studying this Alternative count while it has the structure to unfold, this would put copper back retesting 350 supply levels and making the daily pattern sitting on 300 a larger Triangle ABCDE and we would be in the lower end of Wave D now with an Wave E to move up from the 310, this is an Alternative count but must be put on the table until proven otherwise, this would also make the AUDUSD and ASX move higher and we will look at their Alternative structures in line with the US Indices Forex CFD Trading Report

US Dollar CFD: 80.30
Most markets are having a small wave four rally, so the US Dollar is having its small wave four pull back into the 80 as would naturally be expected, once this pullback is completed another push up to 81 and then another correction back into 80 this would be the creeping topping part of the trend we were talking about yesterday as trends have a beginning middle and end, they are also fractals so they are part of a larger pattern and they contain smaller patterns, the other element is the geometry of nature and the psychology, essentially creating the larger corrective pattern across TL8|80 this is the first high above the level with the ‘Classic Pattern’ after the first high above a level and this one is still playing out, but once completed a larger corrective pattern should unfold, this will give the other markets including stock a chance to rise and this is connected to the Alternative count we are talking about today


EURUSD 1.30
Day Trading: the price is in a small wave four at 130 and wave fours are complicated and best left alone. If SG1 13030 finds support then trade long for the short term, if the 130 becomes the resistance than work the levels in SG2 any shorting would require the 72 as resistance 12972
Elliott Wave: Wave (iv) is unfolding at 130 and potentially can move higher, but it is corrective and once completed move down for wave five (iv)
CFD Trading Report:  : Once this wave four is completed at 130 then it’s down, it’s fine to scalp 10 pips here and there but wave fours don’t bring trends. The bigger picture traders hold shortAUDUSD 0.9933
Day Trading The short term is about retesting 1.00, failing the retest for another probe lower. The current trend pattern up to 1.00 from 9860 is in three waves, i.e. corrective. However corrective patterns can expand so the move up could be only one leg of the corrective pattern, you would need to observe the other currencies and the Indices
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart)
CFD Trading Report:  Continue to scalp through the sublevels while around 1.00


CFD Trading Report Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11880
Day Trading: Let’s keep it simply while the price is under 12,000 it’s bearish and above bullish
Elliott Wave: The expected bounce of 11,800 MinorLevel mTL8 is underway and should complete under 12,000 and then move lower through 11,800. As mentioned yesterday the current move down can still be corrective or an impulse wave unfolding in a series on waves ones and twos, we are short until proven otherwise, but we need to be aware of the corrective pattern and line it up with the other markets in case there is a turn up next week.
CFD Trading Report:  :  The resistance is at 12,000 then 11,900 on a failed retest. The support at 11,500 is the critical game changer, as support a bullish Elliott wave count exists the 11,500 as resistance creates the larger bearish pattern Intermediate Wave (3) down only time will tell, however we have to line our trading plan to accommodate both patterns  S&P500 CFD: 1220
Day Trading: Support 1,200 if support is found on top of Subgroup1 SG1 1230 then expect further upside, if the pivot in SG1 1220 develops as resistance then expect 1200 to be tested
Wave count: We have two count one bullish as in the charts on the site and one bearish here while the 1250 remain the resistance, it is what occurs above the 1200 support that will create the divide between the two wave counts, as it unfolding there will be degrees of bias and it starts with the pivot 1220 as support or resistance
CFD Trading Report:  : Short term will depend on 1220 as support or resistanceFTSE 100 CFD: 5400
Day Trading Bias short under 5372
Elliott Wave: The pattern at 5400 is corrective, but it can expand, the move up could be only the wave a of an abc corrective pattern the 5372 as resistance would be the safer short
CFD Trading Report:  : If the price gets trapped in SG2 especially the 5372 then short but while its above we have to accommodate a larger abc corrective pattern  

SPI CFD 4150
Day Trading The 4200 is the pivot within Minor Group1 and while the price is under this then the bias is weaker and above as support we would need to be long. From that we can continue to break bias down to the point within your trading time frame, if you’re a sublevel trader you would consider the 4100 as support and the 4150 the Midpoint you would simply be long or short from this number, drilling down you would look at the pattern and volume at the midpoint, you would use your skill of pattern recognition including your understanding of the retest checking the price and confirm that with the volume, then you would scale in accordingly and you know the levels where you have to exit.
Elliott Wave: There are two counts as mentioned in the DJI SP500 but also consider the Elliott wave count on the AUDUSD because the current price on the ASX200 SPI has support off the 4000, so long trade are fine too, you just need to know the price that’s supports the market in your trading time frame you can’t trade without know that price
CFD Trading Report:  : While the price is under the 4172 SG2 the pressure is down, the Midpoint is next, the move up off the 4100 appears to be corrective (three waves) but its early yet. It’s all about the Midpoint being long or short from this price point.CFD Trading Report Summary

Today is talking about the current small wave four pullback before a move lower and to also talk about the bullish alternative count in the markets, which is a bullish count, while it exists and until proven otherwise we have to include it in our thinking, that is, in our trading decisions.
We may have to turn long next week and this would mean packing up our short trades and catching the train north.Weekly Cycle, Thursday bearish with selling volume drying up which is the first sign of support, Friday; if Fridays close is strong on higher volume then Monday will be the bull day. This means we would need to see the price and volume increase steadily throughout the day and day traders would move with this. That said, we are expecting this current move up a corrective covering wave four rally and once completed another move down, either way you need to know your price points and the patterns that wrap around your price points as support or resistance and look to the volume to confirm the price action, analysis is one thing, but trading is another and you need to trade what you see and we use the levels, volume and Robo these tools control the risk, they also get you on the right side at the right time, they also let you know where to take profits and place stops.
Trading QuoteThe markets are clearly not a random walk. The markets are not even efficient because that assumption implies you can’t make an above-average return. Since some people can do that, I disagree with the assumption.  Monroe Trout

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous

Tentative  GBP        Nationwide Consumer Confidence    34 36  
7:30pm  EUR        ECB President Draghi Speaks      
9:00pm  EUR        Trade Balance    1.3B 2.1B  
12:30am  CAD        Foreign Securities Purchases    8.23B 7.35B  
12:30am  USD        Core CPI m/m    0.2% 0.1%  
12:30am  USD        CPI m/m    0.1% -0.1%  
3:15am  USD        FOMC Member Evans Speaks      
4:00am  USD        FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Free Stuff on Technical Analysis is available on TradingLounge.com.au site!

CFD Trading Strategies

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CFD Trading Strategies in this video are using Elliott Wave and TradingLevels, however the actually CFD Trading Strategies we use to trade the NYSE NASDAQ ASX are Mechanical CFD Trading Strategies, you can get a free trial and see the CFD Strategies and CFD Trades at TradingLounge.com.au We are friendly affordable and open to educating you in what we know. FREE TRIAL !

CFD Trading Strategies
Dow Jones – 11,831 -1.04%
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1577
Oil WTI CFD: 95.74
Copper CFD: 326
US Dollar CFD: 80.50
EURUSD 1.30
AUDUSD 0.9930
Dow Jones CFD 11880
S&P500 CFD: 1213
FTSE 100 CFD: 5382
SPI CFD 4200

News
U.S. stocks sank for a third straight day as falling commodity prices added to investor anxiety over the euro and a jump in Italy's borrowing costs.

CFD Trading Strategies Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1577
The clear impulse wave (five waves) is certainly picking up speed as the US dollar moves higher and the indices sell off. The next target is approaching quickly, which is the next MediumLevel 1500 (ML15).
There is the sublevels that the price needs to navigate, first up is Subgroup2 {SG2 1580|1572|1565} followed be the Midpoint 1550, then Subgroup1 {SG1 – 1530|1520|1510}.
At each of these three levels expect corrective price action and plan your trading around them. The Elliott wave structure has further downside to get to 1500 with only a small wave four to navigate, the larger corrective pattern should come at 1500. There is still more downside to come after the corrective pattern at 1500Sliver; now has a nice clean break through 30.00 (TL3) the first MinorLevel is 28 (mTL8) The third short position should come from a failed retest, either of the 30.00 or the 28.00, if it is the 30.00 then great and also place the fourth trade on the failed retest of 28.00, do not over trade, under trading actually makes more money in the long run, simply because you can allow yourself to do the right thing and the right time and allow that to play out fully.Oil WTI CFD: 95.74
I’m glad Oil is down, as I could get my head around where the upside was coming from, I was starting to wonder if the hedge funds were trying to push it again like they did last time when it when to 140+ .  Anyway once it locks under 95 the Midpoint then its free to let go of 100.  Any shorting of Oil stocks on the ASX NYSE should be part positions and looking to add if 95 then 90 become the resistance. As the pattern above 95 is still a bullish corrective pattern and not a clear impulse wave down, so in the structure so far there is no real evidence for further downside, it’s just last night’s move swing the boas to the bearish position and therefore we can laydown amounts according to that, i.e. one small position short in stock that we can add to later if correctBase Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.24-
US Nickel:             Last: 7.89-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.83-
US Aluminium       Last: 0.86-Copper CFD: 326
We could see the selling pressure here yesterday and it has followed through, copper can be such a good guide to the other markets.  The price range is extending, expanding down, so will the markets related to this the ASX XMJ AUD etc. We chose this sector yesterday over the energy sector to short and this can continue but the energy sector is starting to pull into line on the down side.Forex

US Dollar CFD: 80.50
The shorter trend to count is the move up from 78 which should top out at 81 or 82 and fold back to 80 checking for support, start counting the waves up from 78 I think the current high is nearly the top of wave three, so a four and five to  go then a larger pull back towards 80, I know I’m a little loose here with prices, it’s just that the Euro is so news driven waves can extend or contract form market intervention, it’s not the normal psychological flow, we see this a lot with the yen


EURUSD 1.30
TradingLevels: The MinorLevel mTL3|1.30 expect the price to consolidate here before move down to the next level 1.20 of course this will take to reach but its important to understand the price is now entering Minor Group1 (MG1) then we can take our thinking into the sublevel terrain.  While the price is here at 130 the US Dollar will be at 80, try and see these two markets not only pushing and pulling of each other but the price they are also doing it with, if you’re having trouble with the wave count on the Dollar then bring in the USDCHF and CAD to get a sense of what’s unfolding
Elliott Wave: Wave (iv) about to unfold at 130
CFDTrading Strategies: We are expecting a wave four at 130 and in Elliott trading we don’t trade wave four. That said; trade the sublevels around the MinorLevel 130 essentially scalping the sublevels.
Daily and Weekly Robo traders can cover part profits here, while wave four is unfolding as the price can move back to the wave four of one lesser degree 13072 and maybe 131, we cannot forget that Europe is the catalyst for headline news. The Euro normally has shallow rallies and a wave four is normally the 38.2% of wave three. You can also use the levels, such as, if support is found on SG1 then the price will get to the Midpoint and if the Midpoint finds support then look at SG2, this way you know what to do and how much exposure you are willing to accept  AUDUSD 0.9930
TradingLevels: The Euro is will find support on 130 and the AUD on 99, the TL1 | 1.00 hasn’t been retested yet, which is normally done from the 99 and the 98.  The 98 is the first MinorLevel and is also lower trend line support, so consider it the main support below the 1.00
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart)
CFD Trading Strategies::  Continue to scalp through the sublevels while around 1.00


Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11880
TradingLevels: If the 11,800 mTL8 becomes resistance then another layer of weakness is created, the first is simply being under 12000 and 11,800 as resistance is where you would add to shorts. The MediumLevel 11,500 is the game changer. Other smaller levels worth noting such as 11,772, 11,720 and 11650 will have their say.
Elliott Wave: In the bigger picture there are still two wave counts a bullish and bearish, from a trading point of view we have to trade what we see and that is the bear
CFD Trading Strategies:  We started to short stocks on the NYSE last night and will continue with that. Once the price is locked under the 11,800 then the target is 11500 and Intermediate Wave (3) would be underwayS&P500 CFD: 1213
TradingLevels: Under 1250 was the first bearish signal, the next is 1,200 (mTL2). There is also trendline support cutting through just below 1,200
Wave count: Like the Dow there are two wave counts one positive and one negative, so that’s not much help to us, but from a trading point of view the 1250 and then the 1,200 should tell you what side of the market to be on
CFD Trading Strategies: Choose you degree of structure to trade i.e. MicroLevels, Sublevels or MinorLevels and then create your trading rules and money management rules around this size of structure, then continue to refine your trading within this, this refinement can only be done from making mistakes as mistakes are your experience, don’t change the size of the structure your trading while in the trade, stay in the frame.FTSE 100 CFD: 5382
TradingLevels: Lower highs on the hourly chart and retesting MinorLevels and certain Subgroups such as 5472 and now the play is at 5400 and 5372 SG2, you have to be there at the time, but it doesn’t get any easier that seeing this market unfold
Elliott Wave: It certainly looks like a series of waves one and twos unfolding from the 5600 highs, if this is the case then the market should pick up speed to the downside
CFD Trading Strategies: Sell the retests at the levels and check the volume, you want to see lower volume on the retests  

SPI CFD 4200
TradingLevels: Next level 4100 which is the 61.8% retracement level of the last trend up, so expect support
Elliott Wave: Unsure, its either a corrective more down or a much larger bear market unfolding
CFD Trading Strategies: Trade the sublevels and trade lower to 4100CFD Trading Strategies Summary

Going Going… The wave structures down for the global indices can still be corrective and therefore see a move higher or the corrective structures are actually a series of waves ones and twos of Intermediate Wave (3) unfolding and this is a serious move down, that is the 2008 bear market was about company debt and that was Intermediate Wave (1), this is about sovereign debt and Wave (3) is always bigger than Wave (1) we are still a long way off confirming this, but we should at least understand the structure and see if it all falls into place and if so, how are we going to trade this? You know already that we have been short on the Euro and long on the dollar and next job is to get short on the US Indices for the long term and this would be at Minor Wave 2 within Intermediate Wave (3) I suggest using options or futures contract with your CFD trading, the reason for this is that its normally way Three when governments ban CFDs and you will be told to exit short positions. I must point out that the above is just a scenario that can play out and I can certainly be wrong and in this game its not about being wrong or right its about preparation meeting opportunity and in the end it doesn’t matter which way the market goes we just need to be on the right side with the right amount and the right timeIn the meantime on the ASX NYSE NASDAQ we will look for shorts.
Yesterday – Wednesday in the weekly cycle as you know is opening lower in the morning session and closing higher, we don’t normally short on that day but the wave count called for it and that should pan out ok, you know what Thursday is? So it’s the volume in the afternoon session that is the key, I’m not going to spell this out, you need to think it out. 
Trading QuoteNever let your market decisions be restricted or influenced by concern over what others might think. Don’t worry about looking stupid.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous

8:30am  NZD        Business NZ Manufacturing Index     46.5  
10:50am  JPY        Tankan Manufacturing Index    -2 2  
10:50am  JPY        Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index    1 1  
11:00am  AUD        MI Inflation Expectations     2.5%  
11:30am  AUD        New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m     1.1%  
11:30am  AUD        RBA Bulletin      
1:30pm  CNY        HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI     47.7  
7:00pm  EUR        French Flash Manufacturing PMI    47.1 47.3  
7:00pm  EUR        French Flash Services PMI    49.2 49.6  
7:15pm  CHF        Industrial Production q/q    -0.7% 3.6%  
7:30pm  CHF        Libor Rate    <0.25% <0.25%  
7:30pm  CHF        SNB Monetary Policy Assessment      
7:30pm  CHF        SNB Press Conference      
7:30pm  EUR        German Flash Manufacturing PMI    47.6 47.9  
7:30pm  EUR        German Flash Services PMI    50.1 50.3  
8:00pm  EUR        ECB Monthly Bulletin      
8:00pm  EUR        Flash Manufacturing PMI    46.1 46.4  
8:00pm  EUR        Flash Services PMI    47.1 47.5  
8:30pm  GBP        Retail Sales m/m    -0.2% 0.6%  
8:30pm  GBP        Consumer Inflation Expectations     4.2%  
9:00pm  EUR        CPI y/y    3.0% 3.0%  
9:00pm  EUR        Core CPI y/y    1.7% 1.6%  
9:00pm  EUR        Employment Change q/q    0.2% 0.3%  
10:00pm  GBP        CBI Industrial Order Expectations    -20 -19  
10:25pm  EUR        ECB President Draghi Speaks      
12:30am  CAD        Capacity Utilization Rate    78.9% 78.4%  
12:30am  USD        PPI m/m    0.3% -0.3%  
12:30am  USD        Unemployment Claims    389K 381K  
12:30am  USD        Core PPI m/m    0.2% 0.0%  
12:30am  USD        Current Account    -108B -118B  
12:30am  USD        Empire State Manufacturing Index    3.1 0.6  
1:00am  USD        TIC Long-Term Purchases    53.4B 68.6B  
1:15am  USD        Capacity Utilization Rate    77.9% 77.8%  
1:15am  USD        Industrial Production m/m    0.3% 0.7%  
2:00am  USD        Philly Fed Manufacturing Index    5.1 3.6  
2:30am  USD        Natural Gas Storage     -20BNOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.


Free Stuff on Technical Analysis is available on TradingLounge.com.au site!