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Trading Strategies
22 DecDow Jones 12,113 +0.08%
Base Metals Mixed
US Gold CFDs: 1613
Oil WTI CFDs: 98.58
Copper CFDs: 338
US Dollar CFDs: 80.20
EURUSD 1.3060
AUDUSD 1.0070
Dow Jones CFDs 12,030
S&P500 CFD: 1238
FTSE 100 CFDs: 5400
SPI CFDs 4110
News
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- European stock markets fell Wednesday as debt worries resurfaced after the European Central Bank's first three-year funding operation for the region's banks drew more interest than expected. Losses for software company SAP AG and drug stocks also weighed.
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks fell as questions about loans to euro-zone banks and some earnings disappointments cut into Tuesday's optimism.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFDs: 1613
Trading StrategiesIf you shorted it at 1630 then you are braver than I but well done. I’m a bit of a chicken I like to see a market confirm first, a retest on a certain price point, in this case the 1600 would be fine, so waiting for a move through 1600 to 1590 then a retest of 1600 and failing, then scaling in short adding when 1590 is retested then working the SG2 and especially the 1572 level (72) if your Day Trading.
We also have to remember that we are in a wave four and wave four can get complicated, so the move up from 1565 to the current high can just be the Wave a of a larger abc correction, at the moment we will call it competed but we now need to see the evidence of an impulse structure down (series of five waves).
One of the problems here of course is that this market is following stock / Indices and if the move up yesterday in the US Indices is Wave (i) and todays pull back is wave (ii) then the next Wave is Elliott Wave (iii) up, so Gold can follow the Indices up. We would need to see Gold split from the Indices and the catalyst for this would be the US Dollar moving up, which we now see as the abc pullback is completed but not confirmed, it you need to stay above 80 TL8, we can also look to the CAD and CHF wave counts to help us with the Dollars wave count as they will be in tune to some degree and of course the Euro and SP will be in tune which in turn can help with the Dollar doing the oppositeSliver The pattern that retested TL3 30.00 is more complete as a three wave corrective pattern and there for is the short from 30.00 with stops above the last highOil WTI CFDs: 98.58
That is five Elliott wave up from the last lows around 92.50 to 99.00 so expect an abc correction the numbers 9560 and 9800 are the strongest in this current area, of course the 100 is number 1 TL1 Oil can have its own mind but its always worth checking around to see what else its moving with like the base metalsBase Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.37+
US Nickel: Last: 8.50+
US Zinc: Last: 0.83-
US Aluminium Last: 0.88-Copper CFDs: 338
Trading Strategies
Copper is moving with Gold, so we can consider the move up from the last low around 320 to the current high 344 (50% Retracement) as corrective and should roll over now. From a tradinglevels technical point while the price is above 330 Group1 its supported so we can’t short it. That said if a pattern presents itself as a bearish set up with 340 as the retested resistance we could scale in, but his would be a little dangerous will there is a positive wave count existing on the Indices, I can see the Tech Sector in the US showing the first signs of destroying the positive wave count for the Indices as its pull back is very low, it has broken any rules yet but it would be the leader Forex
take some time, and go through the updated 4h charts posted on "Elliot Wave Counts" page, so that you will know what we are looking now. We expect further strength on stocks, which is bearish for the US dollar.
Forex US Dollar CFD: 80.20
Trading Strategies
The main point here is the first high above the level TL8 is in place and now we are in the corrective phase and the bottom line is we don’t know how large the correction will be, but if the bullish count on the US Indices is correct then this would give us some idea of the correction here, the bullish pattern in the SP500 if correct will be a impulse wave (five waves) and wave one up is completed and wave two down is underway, so wave three four and five to go, so this means the Dollar has further down side?
Forex EURUSD 1.3060
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: The Euro is following the SP500, however the pull back for the SP for wave (ii) and the move down for the Euro is should be strong and longer essentially to make new lows to 129 before a rally up
Elliott Wave: A fall from the highs must be a confirmation that we are constantly talking about. We had three waves up, and impulsive reversal, deeply into the wave (b) territory
As such, this move from the peak is first leg of some larger downtrend, which will ideally be wave 5. So as things stands right now, we are bearish on Euro while we trade below 1.3200 Bearish daily close somewhere around or below support line, will be just another bearish sign.
Trading Strategies: Work the SG2 {13080|13072|13065} with the 13072 as the retested resistance for a short, this is after a retest of 1.31 first. Anyway whatever happens use the sublevels as support and resistance and then use your indicators not the other way around.Forex AUDUSD 1.0070
TradingLevels: The price ran into supply at 1.02 and is now checking for demand at the 50% retracement level, which is essentially the where the volume was building yesterday morning when mentioned in the video to look for support on 1.0072 for a long, price does move to the next largest number, but support and resistance also line up with volume i.e. price consolidations in history
Elliott Wave: The move down from the high appears to be in five waves, therefore expect a rally off current lows 10050 as corrective, expect a corrective rally pattern up into 1.01
Trading Strategy: Be on the right side of 10072 of course wait for the retest as support or resistance and try and work out the small Elliott pattern within SG2 impulsive or corrective, if it is corrective then it’s a continuation pattern. Also line the AUD with the SP500 patternIndices
Dow Jones CFDs 12,030
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: 12,000 support and expect a bounce in three waves
Elliott Wave: If the move up yesterday is bullish then it is Wave (i) and the current pullback is Wave (ii) we should then look at the Wave (ii) as an abc corrective pattern, so the move down is just the Wave a and a Wave b would occur next around or off the 12,000 in three wave, as b wave away have three waves ( a smaller set of abc) Once Wave b is completed the a Wave c (five waves) SO the Wave a is down as it is now and the Wave b up in three waves and the Wave c down in five waves
Trading Strategies: If we are in a Wave (ii) pull back, that is and abc, then really we need to wait for the Wave c to complete then go long into Wave (iii), if we are correct then we are just starting the wave b off 12,000 so wait for this to complete and then trade or wave for the wave c down to complete which will be in five waves, much the same as Wave a. when the five waves are competed wait for a small move up and develop support on a level and start building a long trade in to Wave (iii).
Note: the reason I mentioned shorting Wave c, is simply because if the bullish interpretation is incorrect then the Wave c would actually be part of a larger structure downS&P500 CFDs: 1238
TradingLevels: SG1 {1210|1220|1230} is support and you need to know the significants of each level within SG1 for it to have any meaning. The resistance or the nest level is the Midpoint 1250 followed by SG2 {1265|1272|1280} if the price does move up in line with the bullish Elliott wave count then the SG2 will be an important zone you have to understand to navigate. The wave structure for the bullish count will be a Wave (iii) a powerful structure however the 1272 will be a tough line to cross, so don’t over react, observe and while you’re at it observe yourself reacting, after all part of the trading battle is against yourself
Wave count: One the bullish side, the move up from 1200 to 1255 is wave (i) and the current pullback is Wave (ii) next is the Wave (iii) up making new highs. The Wave (ii) should be and abc a 5-3-5 structure which will unfold next session.
Trading Strategies: Understanding the abc pattern for wave (ii) would be helpfulFTSE 100 CFDs: 5400
TradingLevels: SG2 5372 support will 5400 develop as support if so build in long in line with the SP500 wave count
Elliott Wave: The move up from 5320 to 5480 is being considered as Wave (i) and the current pull back is Wave (ii) this wave (ii) can be completed at SG2 however we should also expect that wave (ii) delivers an abc pattern, so the current move down is considered wave a of an abc correction, however the current low should stay in place so going long from SG2 would be the go
Day Trading Strategies: Long of the long at 5372 SG2 or 5400 as solid support
SPI CFDs 4110
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 4100 needs to build as support for any long trades
Elliott Wave: The move up yesterday is being considered as Wave (i) and the down last night the Wave (ii)
Day Trading Strategies: Trading the sublevels. The move down last night appears to be an impulse wave, so we are considering it part of Wave (ii) the Wave a of an abc corrective pattern, we should now see a Wave b up, Wave b will be in three waves a smaller set of abc 5-3-5, this is tricky to trade, so scalp rather than looking for the trend and therefor work the SG1. The current pull back for Wave(ii) is 618% around the 4090 so that should maintain support the actual volume support is at SG2 4072. So keep an eye on the Copper and the US Dollar you want that under 80 for a move up here as the AUD will help lift the cashSummary
As you know we have been working two counts and just moving with the bias of either count until things become clear, we started to see a bullish impulse wave yesterday in the US markets so we cut our stock shorts which were smaller position sizing because we aren’t in a trend, so it was not big deal as such. We also didn’t really go long yesterday either partly because of Xmas but mainly because the move up yesterday was an unfinished impulse wave (five waves) and once its finished as Wave (i) it will pull back for Wave (ii) which it has done and the next move is Wave (iii) up then four and five… This Wave (ii) can be completed in terms of distance down i.e. 61.8% but in terms of pattern I think its only the Wave a of an abc correction (Zigzag) so you can go long today but keeping wider stops to accommodate the Wave c down. I will explain all of this in the videoWeekly bullish cycle, Wednesday creates the weekly high and Thursday opens higher but trades down as the bear day? If this is the case then it’s the drying up of selling volume in the afternoon you build a long position and Friday should see more buying volume move in with a stronger close. However Friday on the ASX closes early because of Xmas I can’t remember what time, so you best check. If the bullish count is correct then once Friday is finished the market would be set up for a long trade in the first session when it opens again? We will have a better idea about this after the US close tonight.
Trading QuoteDon’t drink too much over Xmas, send it to box 262 Berry 2535 :-}
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD GDP q/q 0.1%
Tentative JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
4:00pm JPY BOJ Monthly Report
8:00pm EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.2% -0.4%
8:30pm GBP Current Account -5.2B -2.0B
8:30pm GBP Final GDP q/q 0.5% 0.5%
8:30pm GBP Revised Business Investment q/q -1.3% -1.4%
12:30am USD Unemployment Claims 376K 366K
12:30am USD Final GDP q/q 2.0% 2.0%
12:30am USD Final GDP Price Index q/q 2.5% 2.5%
1:55am USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 68.1 67.7
1:55am USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 3.1%
2:00am USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.4% 0.9%
2:00am USD OFHEO HPI m/m 0.3% 0.9%
2:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -102B
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Click to watch Video:- http://youtu.be/Qaf7M8W9cXw
Video Description:- TradingLounge specialises in Technical Analysis, Trading Strategies, Day Trading, Elliott Wave, TradingLevels and Trading Education. For a Free Trial of our CFD Trades for the ASX NYSE and NASDAQ go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
Trading Strategies
22 DecDow Jones 12,113 +0.08%
Base Metals Mixed
US Gold CFDs: 1613
Oil WTI CFDs: 98.58
Copper CFDs: 338
US Dollar CFDs: 80.20
EURUSD 1.3060
AUDUSD 1.0070
Dow Jones CFDs 12,030
S&P500 CFD: 1238
FTSE 100 CFDs: 5400
SPI CFDs 4110
News
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- European stock markets fell Wednesday as debt worries resurfaced after the European Central Bank's first three-year funding operation for the region's banks drew more interest than expected. Losses for software company SAP AG and drug stocks also weighed.
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks fell as questions about loans to euro-zone banks and some earnings disappointments cut into Tuesday's optimism.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFDs: 1613
Trading StrategiesIf you shorted it at 1630 then you are braver than I but well done. I’m a bit of a chicken I like to see a market confirm first, a retest on a certain price point, in this case the 1600 would be fine, so waiting for a move through 1600 to 1590 then a retest of 1600 and failing, then scaling in short adding when 1590 is retested then working the SG2 and especially the 1572 level (72) if your Day Trading.
We also have to remember that we are in a wave four and wave four can get complicated, so the move up from 1565 to the current high can just be the Wave a of a larger abc correction, at the moment we will call it competed but we now need to see the evidence of an impulse structure down (series of five waves).
One of the problems here of course is that this market is following stock / Indices and if the move up yesterday in the US Indices is Wave (i) and todays pull back is wave (ii) then the next Wave is Elliott Wave (iii) up, so Gold can follow the Indices up. We would need to see Gold split from the Indices and the catalyst for this would be the US Dollar moving up, which we now see as the abc pullback is completed but not confirmed, it you need to stay above 80 TL8, we can also look to the CAD and CHF wave counts to help us with the Dollars wave count as they will be in tune to some degree and of course the Euro and SP will be in tune which in turn can help with the Dollar doing the oppositeSliver The pattern that retested TL3 30.00 is more complete as a three wave corrective pattern and there for is the short from 30.00 with stops above the last highOil WTI CFDs: 98.58
That is five Elliott wave up from the last lows around 92.50 to 99.00 so expect an abc correction the numbers 9560 and 9800 are the strongest in this current area, of course the 100 is number 1 TL1 Oil can have its own mind but its always worth checking around to see what else its moving with like the base metalsBase Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.37+
US Nickel: Last: 8.50+
US Zinc: Last: 0.83-
US Aluminium Last: 0.88-Copper CFDs: 338
Trading Strategies
Copper is moving with Gold, so we can consider the move up from the last low around 320 to the current high 344 (50% Retracement) as corrective and should roll over now. From a tradinglevels technical point while the price is above 330 Group1 its supported so we can’t short it. That said if a pattern presents itself as a bearish set up with 340 as the retested resistance we could scale in, but his would be a little dangerous will there is a positive wave count existing on the Indices, I can see the Tech Sector in the US showing the first signs of destroying the positive wave count for the Indices as its pull back is very low, it has broken any rules yet but it would be the leader Forex
take some time, and go through the updated 4h charts posted on "Elliot Wave Counts" page, so that you will know what we are looking now. We expect further strength on stocks, which is bearish for the US dollar.
Forex US Dollar CFD: 80.20
Trading Strategies
The main point here is the first high above the level TL8 is in place and now we are in the corrective phase and the bottom line is we don’t know how large the correction will be, but if the bullish count on the US Indices is correct then this would give us some idea of the correction here, the bullish pattern in the SP500 if correct will be a impulse wave (five waves) and wave one up is completed and wave two down is underway, so wave three four and five to go, so this means the Dollar has further down side?
Forex EURUSD 1.3060
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: The Euro is following the SP500, however the pull back for the SP for wave (ii) and the move down for the Euro is should be strong and longer essentially to make new lows to 129 before a rally up
Elliott Wave: A fall from the highs must be a confirmation that we are constantly talking about. We had three waves up, and impulsive reversal, deeply into the wave (b) territory
As such, this move from the peak is first leg of some larger downtrend, which will ideally be wave 5. So as things stands right now, we are bearish on Euro while we trade below 1.3200 Bearish daily close somewhere around or below support line, will be just another bearish sign.
Trading Strategies: Work the SG2 {13080|13072|13065} with the 13072 as the retested resistance for a short, this is after a retest of 1.31 first. Anyway whatever happens use the sublevels as support and resistance and then use your indicators not the other way around.Forex AUDUSD 1.0070
TradingLevels: The price ran into supply at 1.02 and is now checking for demand at the 50% retracement level, which is essentially the where the volume was building yesterday morning when mentioned in the video to look for support on 1.0072 for a long, price does move to the next largest number, but support and resistance also line up with volume i.e. price consolidations in history
Elliott Wave: The move down from the high appears to be in five waves, therefore expect a rally off current lows 10050 as corrective, expect a corrective rally pattern up into 1.01
Trading Strategy: Be on the right side of 10072 of course wait for the retest as support or resistance and try and work out the small Elliott pattern within SG2 impulsive or corrective, if it is corrective then it’s a continuation pattern. Also line the AUD with the SP500 patternIndices
Dow Jones CFDs 12,030
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: 12,000 support and expect a bounce in three waves
Elliott Wave: If the move up yesterday is bullish then it is Wave (i) and the current pullback is Wave (ii) we should then look at the Wave (ii) as an abc corrective pattern, so the move down is just the Wave a and a Wave b would occur next around or off the 12,000 in three wave, as b wave away have three waves ( a smaller set of abc) Once Wave b is completed the a Wave c (five waves) SO the Wave a is down as it is now and the Wave b up in three waves and the Wave c down in five waves
Trading Strategies: If we are in a Wave (ii) pull back, that is and abc, then really we need to wait for the Wave c to complete then go long into Wave (iii), if we are correct then we are just starting the wave b off 12,000 so wait for this to complete and then trade or wave for the wave c down to complete which will be in five waves, much the same as Wave a. when the five waves are competed wait for a small move up and develop support on a level and start building a long trade in to Wave (iii).
Note: the reason I mentioned shorting Wave c, is simply because if the bullish interpretation is incorrect then the Wave c would actually be part of a larger structure downS&P500 CFDs: 1238
TradingLevels: SG1 {1210|1220|1230} is support and you need to know the significants of each level within SG1 for it to have any meaning. The resistance or the nest level is the Midpoint 1250 followed by SG2 {1265|1272|1280} if the price does move up in line with the bullish Elliott wave count then the SG2 will be an important zone you have to understand to navigate. The wave structure for the bullish count will be a Wave (iii) a powerful structure however the 1272 will be a tough line to cross, so don’t over react, observe and while you’re at it observe yourself reacting, after all part of the trading battle is against yourself
Wave count: One the bullish side, the move up from 1200 to 1255 is wave (i) and the current pullback is Wave (ii) next is the Wave (iii) up making new highs. The Wave (ii) should be and abc a 5-3-5 structure which will unfold next session.
Trading Strategies: Understanding the abc pattern for wave (ii) would be helpfulFTSE 100 CFDs: 5400
TradingLevels: SG2 5372 support will 5400 develop as support if so build in long in line with the SP500 wave count
Elliott Wave: The move up from 5320 to 5480 is being considered as Wave (i) and the current pull back is Wave (ii) this wave (ii) can be completed at SG2 however we should also expect that wave (ii) delivers an abc pattern, so the current move down is considered wave a of an abc correction, however the current low should stay in place so going long from SG2 would be the go
Day Trading Strategies: Long of the long at 5372 SG2 or 5400 as solid support
SPI CFDs 4110
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 4100 needs to build as support for any long trades
Elliott Wave: The move up yesterday is being considered as Wave (i) and the down last night the Wave (ii)
Day Trading Strategies: Trading the sublevels. The move down last night appears to be an impulse wave, so we are considering it part of Wave (ii) the Wave a of an abc corrective pattern, we should now see a Wave b up, Wave b will be in three waves a smaller set of abc 5-3-5, this is tricky to trade, so scalp rather than looking for the trend and therefor work the SG1. The current pull back for Wave(ii) is 618% around the 4090 so that should maintain support the actual volume support is at SG2 4072. So keep an eye on the Copper and the US Dollar you want that under 80 for a move up here as the AUD will help lift the cashSummary
As you know we have been working two counts and just moving with the bias of either count until things become clear, we started to see a bullish impulse wave yesterday in the US markets so we cut our stock shorts which were smaller position sizing because we aren’t in a trend, so it was not big deal as such. We also didn’t really go long yesterday either partly because of Xmas but mainly because the move up yesterday was an unfinished impulse wave (five waves) and once its finished as Wave (i) it will pull back for Wave (ii) which it has done and the next move is Wave (iii) up then four and five… This Wave (ii) can be completed in terms of distance down i.e. 61.8% but in terms of pattern I think its only the Wave a of an abc correction (Zigzag) so you can go long today but keeping wider stops to accommodate the Wave c down. I will explain all of this in the videoWeekly bullish cycle, Wednesday creates the weekly high and Thursday opens higher but trades down as the bear day? If this is the case then it’s the drying up of selling volume in the afternoon you build a long position and Friday should see more buying volume move in with a stronger close. However Friday on the ASX closes early because of Xmas I can’t remember what time, so you best check. If the bullish count is correct then once Friday is finished the market would be set up for a long trade in the first session when it opens again? We will have a better idea about this after the US close tonight.
Trading QuoteDon’t drink too much over Xmas, send it to box 262 Berry 2535 :-}
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD GDP q/q 0.1%
Tentative JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
4:00pm JPY BOJ Monthly Report
8:00pm EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.2% -0.4%
8:30pm GBP Current Account -5.2B -2.0B
8:30pm GBP Final GDP q/q 0.5% 0.5%
8:30pm GBP Revised Business Investment q/q -1.3% -1.4%
12:30am USD Unemployment Claims 376K 366K
12:30am USD Final GDP q/q 2.0% 2.0%
12:30am USD Final GDP Price Index q/q 2.5% 2.5%
1:55am USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 68.1 67.7
1:55am USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 3.1%
2:00am USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.4% 0.9%
2:00am USD OFHEO HPI m/m 0.3% 0.9%
2:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -102B
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
