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CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1642
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: The 1650 MediumLevel is a good resistance and the Subgroup1 (SG1{1610|1620|1630}) as support, this support is support while the SG1 Pivot 1620 holds.
In terms of trading we would not go long while the price is under 1650 we would require this as support, we can also expect corrective price action at 1650. There is an Elliott wave count that finishes here and that’s fine however evidence is required of impulse waves down, if that becomes the case then scaling in under 1620 as resistance and then adding under 1600 would be sensible. If the 1650 does find support, then we can trade to 1700 which is the 61.8% retracement of the previous impulse wave down from 1800, anyway in the meantime we should just observe the battle between 1650 and SG1
Elliott Wave: The retest of 1650 is underway and the wave count up is in three waves but can also be counted in five, standing back for a moment and looking at the possibilities, this rally can also be the first leg of a larger abc rally to 1700 and I will point out why this is so in the video as it relates to the larger pattern down from 1800 to 1500+.
If this current retest fails we need to wait fro the pattern set up and that is, firstly waiting for the reaction at 1650 then finding support on 1630 or 1620 then retesting close to the last high /1650 etc and then rolling over down taking our the last low of support, this will prove the sellers have overwhelmed the buyers, we should also see US Indices do the same and the US Dollar push higher, it would also be good to see base metals do the same, copper.
Sliver at resistance 30.00 MajorLevel, if the price takes out 2956 add small short with stop above 30 and IF the market moves down look to add under 2900, 2872…
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Oil WTI: 102
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: Oil is still trapped in Group1 {101|102|103} above 100 TL1 as support so its positive, but in the next two degrees lower its negative under 103, if it can develop support on 102 the SG1 pivot then that is a plus but at the end of the day its finding support on top of SG1 103 that is the key for a long trade. Oil can move with stock, so the Dow also finding support on12,500 (mTL5) is also important for trading long, not essential but helpful, you can also look to the base metals and as we use copper the 350 as a solid support.
All of this helps with being long on equities with the Robo trading strategies.
Earlier in the week we were looking at Shanghai as it has moved down a lot more than other markets and could see it was oversold and the Elliott wave count was looking for a low and that low may be in now, it certainly has made a sign but would need confirmation in the structure, but while that current low is in place so is support for Asia and commodities.
Elliott Wave: expect further strength on crude towards and above 103.70. Well, in the two sessions prices made a pull-back for almost 61.8%. And so far pull-back appears corrective which fits very nicely into the bullish incomplete structure.
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Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.52+
US Nickel: Last: 8.72-
US Zinc: Last: 0.86+
US Aluminium Last: 0.96+
Copper CFD: 353
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: The next step is finding the Midpoint 350 as support or resistance, we can see the Asian markets pushing up but more importantly we can see support now coming in for Shanghai, all eye on this support as this is the driver, the negative in the market is the US Indices running out of stream, there are indicators also confirming this, but we would need evidence in the wave structure to call a top in and that would be an impulse (five waves) to the down side, I was thinking of a top being in place this week for the US but its not there yet. We can use the 350 as support or resistance for being long or short in the material sectors in the US UK AU markets, the other guide stick is US BHP being above or below 72 for being long or short
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Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.58
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The move up in the last session up from 81.00 is likely a wave b which will be followed be wave c back down to 81.00 and then push higher, if wrong and the price does move higher then support on 81.72 would be required. This is also reflected in the EURUSD in its wave four, its move down can also be a Wave b or the Wave 5. So use the levels in part to create a strong trade set up and trade shorter degrees of structure while in this 5th or b wave
Forex EURUSD 1.27
TradingLevels: The 1.2720 is the line in the sand as support or resistance for being long or short, as say this to simplify the situation as the Elliott count can have the move down from 128 as wave five or wave b,
Elliott Wave: If the move down from 128 is wave b then expect wave c up as a retest of 128, if the move down is wave five than a new low would be made.
Trading Strategies: The two important numbers at the lower end are 12720 and 12650
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Forex AUDUSD 1.03
TradingLevels: The move up last night from 10272 to 103 is on diminishing volume, so a solid support on 103 would be required for a safer trade up to make new highs above 10350
Elliott Wave: As an alternative count, the pattern on 103 over the last few days can be a wave four, if correct then a move into new highs to 10372
Trading Strategies: Long of 103 as support, building the trade through group1 {10310|10320|10330} the 10320 is helpful but the top of group1 10330 as support is more important to the bigger picture
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Indices
A few side points to mention, the US Earning season have started and the Shanghai has found a support on its low, will it hold is another matter, we will monitor the volume in the rally.
Dow Jones CFD 12,437
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 12500 is the line in the sand here, as support or resistance, however this will take time to develop. There are indicators and sentiment indicators creating over bought and divergences and an Elliott count for a high around here, but either way lets just let the 12500 play out as support or resistance, we have plenty of time to wait for a set up here long or short as a long would require a series of swings before support and resistance would require a few retests. There will be corrective price action here at 12500 and it is a target price point for us, but let’s just wait and see what develops before making a decision
Elliott Wave: As you know we are looking for a top here, but we simply need to time to see
Trading Strategies: Wait for support or resistance, resistance and retests would be quicker than support if is was going to go that way, on the short side you would be looking for the second retest of 12500 to fail and take out the last low.
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S&P500 CFD: 1290
TradingLevels: The 1,300 is the resistance so expect a reaction there.
Elliott Wave: Same -The structure up is still going so expect he price to find a top this week at or above 1300. Count the impulse wave (5 waves) from the 1265 (SG2) up, you can see it still had further to go
Trading Strategies: Day trading, support on 1290 creates the long but exit before 1300
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FTSE 100 CFD: 5690
TradingLevels: while the 5650 is support the pattern up is supported, 5650 as resistance creates short set ups
Elliott Wave: Same - Targets 5772 - 5800
Trading Strategies: You could work SG2 for a trade SG2 5665|5672|5680 expect the price to continue to swing across this level but wait for support or resistance here, with 5672 being key.
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SPI CFD 4189
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 4200 mTL2 is the pivot within MinorGroup1 this is important as it’s the balance line in Group1.
Elliott Wave: We were looking for five wave up from 4100 to 4200, they are now in place, so expect a corrective pattern at and across 4200, it can also fail here.
Trading Strategies: Expect the tradinglevels Classic pattern across 4200. So we don’t chase the first new highs above 4200 as the break out is not as important as the retest, you are likely to get trapped, expect a corrective pattern above below across 4200. Once this has developed then you can start working the SG1 above 4200 and the SG2 below 4200
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Trading Strategies
The US markets have met resistance i.e. DJI 12,500 and SP1300 (nearly) so there is not a lot of upside potential right now, sure if they find these levels as support, then fine, long it is, but they are resistance and we don’t buy into that risk.
The upside potential for Asia is from the Shanghai market as an Elliott wave low has been falling into place, so we should observe the support, pattern and volume, the first resistance is 2300 top of group1 and the second is 2500 this is where is can technically rally to before rolling over. The 2300 resistance is a solid one as it comes with supply. In the mean time we are likely to see the Shanghai retest 2200 before any attempt to push higher, so we could be a week away before knowing if a medium term low is forming, which in turn would assist the ASX in moving higher, the ASX finding support on 4200 is the first step in a real move up, but it is the 4300 the top of MinorGroup1 that is the real evidence and there is a lot of supply there, if support is found on 4200 over the days ahead, the target would be 4272 SG2 zone.
Weekly Cycle; Wed higher close, Thursday open higher close lower. If it does close lower today then it’s the volume that is the important aspect, that is, if the price moves down on lower volume that is a bullish sign.
Trading Quote
You decide your fate; the market doesn’t
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
11:00am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -1.0%
12:30pm CNY CPI y/y 4.0% 4.2%
12:30pm CNY PPI y/y 1.6% 2.7%
12th-16th NZD REINZ HPI m/m 1.1%
4:00pm JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 46.3 45.0
5:00pm JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 15.8%
5:30pm EUR French CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3%
6:00pm EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.7% 0.7%
6:45pm EUR French Gov Budget Balance -99.4B
8:00pm EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.1% -0.9%
8:30pm GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.0% -0.7%
8:30pm GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.1% -0.7%
9:00pm EUR Industrial Production m/m -0.2% -0.1%
11:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility 275B 275B
11:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50%
Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement
11:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate 1.00% 1.00%
12:30am CAD NHPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%
12:30am EUR ECB Press Conference
12:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.2%
12:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.2%
12:30am USD Unemployment Claims 370K 372K
2:00am GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.3%
2:00am USD Business Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.8%
2:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -76B
6:00am USD Federal Budget Balance -79.0B -137.3B
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Showing posts with label CFD Trading Strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CFD Trading Strategy. Show all posts
Thursday, 12 January 2012
Friday, 23 December 2011
Trading Strategies
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Trading Strategies
22 DecDow Jones 12,113 +0.08%
Base Metals Mixed
US Gold CFDs: 1613
Oil WTI CFDs: 98.58
Copper CFDs: 338
US Dollar CFDs: 80.20
EURUSD 1.3060
AUDUSD 1.0070
Dow Jones CFDs 12,030
S&P500 CFD: 1238
FTSE 100 CFDs: 5400
SPI CFDs 4110
News
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- European stock markets fell Wednesday as debt worries resurfaced after the European Central Bank's first three-year funding operation for the region's banks drew more interest than expected. Losses for software company SAP AG and drug stocks also weighed.
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks fell as questions about loans to euro-zone banks and some earnings disappointments cut into Tuesday's optimism.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFDs: 1613
Trading StrategiesIf you shorted it at 1630 then you are braver than I but well done. I’m a bit of a chicken I like to see a market confirm first, a retest on a certain price point, in this case the 1600 would be fine, so waiting for a move through 1600 to 1590 then a retest of 1600 and failing, then scaling in short adding when 1590 is retested then working the SG2 and especially the 1572 level (72) if your Day Trading.
We also have to remember that we are in a wave four and wave four can get complicated, so the move up from 1565 to the current high can just be the Wave a of a larger abc correction, at the moment we will call it competed but we now need to see the evidence of an impulse structure down (series of five waves).
One of the problems here of course is that this market is following stock / Indices and if the move up yesterday in the US Indices is Wave (i) and todays pull back is wave (ii) then the next Wave is Elliott Wave (iii) up, so Gold can follow the Indices up. We would need to see Gold split from the Indices and the catalyst for this would be the US Dollar moving up, which we now see as the abc pullback is completed but not confirmed, it you need to stay above 80 TL8, we can also look to the CAD and CHF wave counts to help us with the Dollars wave count as they will be in tune to some degree and of course the Euro and SP will be in tune which in turn can help with the Dollar doing the oppositeSliver The pattern that retested TL3 30.00 is more complete as a three wave corrective pattern and there for is the short from 30.00 with stops above the last highOil WTI CFDs: 98.58
That is five Elliott wave up from the last lows around 92.50 to 99.00 so expect an abc correction the numbers 9560 and 9800 are the strongest in this current area, of course the 100 is number 1 TL1 Oil can have its own mind but its always worth checking around to see what else its moving with like the base metalsBase Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.37+
US Nickel: Last: 8.50+
US Zinc: Last: 0.83-
US Aluminium Last: 0.88-Copper CFDs: 338
Trading Strategies
Copper is moving with Gold, so we can consider the move up from the last low around 320 to the current high 344 (50% Retracement) as corrective and should roll over now. From a tradinglevels technical point while the price is above 330 Group1 its supported so we can’t short it. That said if a pattern presents itself as a bearish set up with 340 as the retested resistance we could scale in, but his would be a little dangerous will there is a positive wave count existing on the Indices, I can see the Tech Sector in the US showing the first signs of destroying the positive wave count for the Indices as its pull back is very low, it has broken any rules yet but it would be the leader Forex
take some time, and go through the updated 4h charts posted on "Elliot Wave Counts" page, so that you will know what we are looking now. We expect further strength on stocks, which is bearish for the US dollar.
Forex US Dollar CFD: 80.20
Trading Strategies
The main point here is the first high above the level TL8 is in place and now we are in the corrective phase and the bottom line is we don’t know how large the correction will be, but if the bullish count on the US Indices is correct then this would give us some idea of the correction here, the bullish pattern in the SP500 if correct will be a impulse wave (five waves) and wave one up is completed and wave two down is underway, so wave three four and five to go, so this means the Dollar has further down side?
Forex EURUSD 1.3060
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: The Euro is following the SP500, however the pull back for the SP for wave (ii) and the move down for the Euro is should be strong and longer essentially to make new lows to 129 before a rally up
Elliott Wave: A fall from the highs must be a confirmation that we are constantly talking about. We had three waves up, and impulsive reversal, deeply into the wave (b) territory
As such, this move from the peak is first leg of some larger downtrend, which will ideally be wave 5. So as things stands right now, we are bearish on Euro while we trade below 1.3200 Bearish daily close somewhere around or below support line, will be just another bearish sign.
Trading Strategies: Work the SG2 {13080|13072|13065} with the 13072 as the retested resistance for a short, this is after a retest of 1.31 first. Anyway whatever happens use the sublevels as support and resistance and then use your indicators not the other way around.Forex AUDUSD 1.0070
TradingLevels: The price ran into supply at 1.02 and is now checking for demand at the 50% retracement level, which is essentially the where the volume was building yesterday morning when mentioned in the video to look for support on 1.0072 for a long, price does move to the next largest number, but support and resistance also line up with volume i.e. price consolidations in history
Elliott Wave: The move down from the high appears to be in five waves, therefore expect a rally off current lows 10050 as corrective, expect a corrective rally pattern up into 1.01
Trading Strategy: Be on the right side of 10072 of course wait for the retest as support or resistance and try and work out the small Elliott pattern within SG2 impulsive or corrective, if it is corrective then it’s a continuation pattern. Also line the AUD with the SP500 patternIndices
Dow Jones CFDs 12,030
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: 12,000 support and expect a bounce in three waves
Elliott Wave: If the move up yesterday is bullish then it is Wave (i) and the current pullback is Wave (ii) we should then look at the Wave (ii) as an abc corrective pattern, so the move down is just the Wave a and a Wave b would occur next around or off the 12,000 in three wave, as b wave away have three waves ( a smaller set of abc) Once Wave b is completed the a Wave c (five waves) SO the Wave a is down as it is now and the Wave b up in three waves and the Wave c down in five waves
Trading Strategies: If we are in a Wave (ii) pull back, that is and abc, then really we need to wait for the Wave c to complete then go long into Wave (iii), if we are correct then we are just starting the wave b off 12,000 so wait for this to complete and then trade or wave for the wave c down to complete which will be in five waves, much the same as Wave a. when the five waves are competed wait for a small move up and develop support on a level and start building a long trade in to Wave (iii).
Note: the reason I mentioned shorting Wave c, is simply because if the bullish interpretation is incorrect then the Wave c would actually be part of a larger structure downS&P500 CFDs: 1238
TradingLevels: SG1 {1210|1220|1230} is support and you need to know the significants of each level within SG1 for it to have any meaning. The resistance or the nest level is the Midpoint 1250 followed by SG2 {1265|1272|1280} if the price does move up in line with the bullish Elliott wave count then the SG2 will be an important zone you have to understand to navigate. The wave structure for the bullish count will be a Wave (iii) a powerful structure however the 1272 will be a tough line to cross, so don’t over react, observe and while you’re at it observe yourself reacting, after all part of the trading battle is against yourself
Wave count: One the bullish side, the move up from 1200 to 1255 is wave (i) and the current pullback is Wave (ii) next is the Wave (iii) up making new highs. The Wave (ii) should be and abc a 5-3-5 structure which will unfold next session.
Trading Strategies: Understanding the abc pattern for wave (ii) would be helpfulFTSE 100 CFDs: 5400
TradingLevels: SG2 5372 support will 5400 develop as support if so build in long in line with the SP500 wave count
Elliott Wave: The move up from 5320 to 5480 is being considered as Wave (i) and the current pull back is Wave (ii) this wave (ii) can be completed at SG2 however we should also expect that wave (ii) delivers an abc pattern, so the current move down is considered wave a of an abc correction, however the current low should stay in place so going long from SG2 would be the go
Day Trading Strategies: Long of the long at 5372 SG2 or 5400 as solid support
SPI CFDs 4110
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 4100 needs to build as support for any long trades
Elliott Wave: The move up yesterday is being considered as Wave (i) and the down last night the Wave (ii)
Day Trading Strategies: Trading the sublevels. The move down last night appears to be an impulse wave, so we are considering it part of Wave (ii) the Wave a of an abc corrective pattern, we should now see a Wave b up, Wave b will be in three waves a smaller set of abc 5-3-5, this is tricky to trade, so scalp rather than looking for the trend and therefor work the SG1. The current pull back for Wave(ii) is 618% around the 4090 so that should maintain support the actual volume support is at SG2 4072. So keep an eye on the Copper and the US Dollar you want that under 80 for a move up here as the AUD will help lift the cashSummary
As you know we have been working two counts and just moving with the bias of either count until things become clear, we started to see a bullish impulse wave yesterday in the US markets so we cut our stock shorts which were smaller position sizing because we aren’t in a trend, so it was not big deal as such. We also didn’t really go long yesterday either partly because of Xmas but mainly because the move up yesterday was an unfinished impulse wave (five waves) and once its finished as Wave (i) it will pull back for Wave (ii) which it has done and the next move is Wave (iii) up then four and five… This Wave (ii) can be completed in terms of distance down i.e. 61.8% but in terms of pattern I think its only the Wave a of an abc correction (Zigzag) so you can go long today but keeping wider stops to accommodate the Wave c down. I will explain all of this in the videoWeekly bullish cycle, Wednesday creates the weekly high and Thursday opens higher but trades down as the bear day? If this is the case then it’s the drying up of selling volume in the afternoon you build a long position and Friday should see more buying volume move in with a stronger close. However Friday on the ASX closes early because of Xmas I can’t remember what time, so you best check. If the bullish count is correct then once Friday is finished the market would be set up for a long trade in the first session when it opens again? We will have a better idea about this after the US close tonight.
Trading QuoteDon’t drink too much over Xmas, send it to box 262 Berry 2535 :-}
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD GDP q/q 0.1%
Tentative JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
4:00pm JPY BOJ Monthly Report
8:00pm EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.2% -0.4%
8:30pm GBP Current Account -5.2B -2.0B
8:30pm GBP Final GDP q/q 0.5% 0.5%
8:30pm GBP Revised Business Investment q/q -1.3% -1.4%
12:30am USD Unemployment Claims 376K 366K
12:30am USD Final GDP q/q 2.0% 2.0%
12:30am USD Final GDP Price Index q/q 2.5% 2.5%
1:55am USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 68.1 67.7
1:55am USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 3.1%
2:00am USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.4% 0.9%
2:00am USD OFHEO HPI m/m 0.3% 0.9%
2:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -102B
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Click to watch Video:- http://youtu.be/Qaf7M8W9cXw
Video Description:- TradingLounge specialises in Technical Analysis, Trading Strategies, Day Trading, Elliott Wave, TradingLevels and Trading Education. For a Free Trial of our CFD Trades for the ASX NYSE and NASDAQ go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
Trading Strategies
22 DecDow Jones 12,113 +0.08%
Base Metals Mixed
US Gold CFDs: 1613
Oil WTI CFDs: 98.58
Copper CFDs: 338
US Dollar CFDs: 80.20
EURUSD 1.3060
AUDUSD 1.0070
Dow Jones CFDs 12,030
S&P500 CFD: 1238
FTSE 100 CFDs: 5400
SPI CFDs 4110
News
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- European stock markets fell Wednesday as debt worries resurfaced after the European Central Bank's first three-year funding operation for the region's banks drew more interest than expected. Losses for software company SAP AG and drug stocks also weighed.
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks fell as questions about loans to euro-zone banks and some earnings disappointments cut into Tuesday's optimism.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFDs: 1613
Trading StrategiesIf you shorted it at 1630 then you are braver than I but well done. I’m a bit of a chicken I like to see a market confirm first, a retest on a certain price point, in this case the 1600 would be fine, so waiting for a move through 1600 to 1590 then a retest of 1600 and failing, then scaling in short adding when 1590 is retested then working the SG2 and especially the 1572 level (72) if your Day Trading.
We also have to remember that we are in a wave four and wave four can get complicated, so the move up from 1565 to the current high can just be the Wave a of a larger abc correction, at the moment we will call it competed but we now need to see the evidence of an impulse structure down (series of five waves).
One of the problems here of course is that this market is following stock / Indices and if the move up yesterday in the US Indices is Wave (i) and todays pull back is wave (ii) then the next Wave is Elliott Wave (iii) up, so Gold can follow the Indices up. We would need to see Gold split from the Indices and the catalyst for this would be the US Dollar moving up, which we now see as the abc pullback is completed but not confirmed, it you need to stay above 80 TL8, we can also look to the CAD and CHF wave counts to help us with the Dollars wave count as they will be in tune to some degree and of course the Euro and SP will be in tune which in turn can help with the Dollar doing the oppositeSliver The pattern that retested TL3 30.00 is more complete as a three wave corrective pattern and there for is the short from 30.00 with stops above the last highOil WTI CFDs: 98.58
That is five Elliott wave up from the last lows around 92.50 to 99.00 so expect an abc correction the numbers 9560 and 9800 are the strongest in this current area, of course the 100 is number 1 TL1 Oil can have its own mind but its always worth checking around to see what else its moving with like the base metalsBase Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.37+
US Nickel: Last: 8.50+
US Zinc: Last: 0.83-
US Aluminium Last: 0.88-Copper CFDs: 338
Trading Strategies
Copper is moving with Gold, so we can consider the move up from the last low around 320 to the current high 344 (50% Retracement) as corrective and should roll over now. From a tradinglevels technical point while the price is above 330 Group1 its supported so we can’t short it. That said if a pattern presents itself as a bearish set up with 340 as the retested resistance we could scale in, but his would be a little dangerous will there is a positive wave count existing on the Indices, I can see the Tech Sector in the US showing the first signs of destroying the positive wave count for the Indices as its pull back is very low, it has broken any rules yet but it would be the leader Forex
take some time, and go through the updated 4h charts posted on "Elliot Wave Counts" page, so that you will know what we are looking now. We expect further strength on stocks, which is bearish for the US dollar.
Forex US Dollar CFD: 80.20
Trading Strategies
The main point here is the first high above the level TL8 is in place and now we are in the corrective phase and the bottom line is we don’t know how large the correction will be, but if the bullish count on the US Indices is correct then this would give us some idea of the correction here, the bullish pattern in the SP500 if correct will be a impulse wave (five waves) and wave one up is completed and wave two down is underway, so wave three four and five to go, so this means the Dollar has further down side?
Forex EURUSD 1.3060
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: The Euro is following the SP500, however the pull back for the SP for wave (ii) and the move down for the Euro is should be strong and longer essentially to make new lows to 129 before a rally up
Elliott Wave: A fall from the highs must be a confirmation that we are constantly talking about. We had three waves up, and impulsive reversal, deeply into the wave (b) territory
As such, this move from the peak is first leg of some larger downtrend, which will ideally be wave 5. So as things stands right now, we are bearish on Euro while we trade below 1.3200 Bearish daily close somewhere around or below support line, will be just another bearish sign.
Trading Strategies: Work the SG2 {13080|13072|13065} with the 13072 as the retested resistance for a short, this is after a retest of 1.31 first. Anyway whatever happens use the sublevels as support and resistance and then use your indicators not the other way around.Forex AUDUSD 1.0070
TradingLevels: The price ran into supply at 1.02 and is now checking for demand at the 50% retracement level, which is essentially the where the volume was building yesterday morning when mentioned in the video to look for support on 1.0072 for a long, price does move to the next largest number, but support and resistance also line up with volume i.e. price consolidations in history
Elliott Wave: The move down from the high appears to be in five waves, therefore expect a rally off current lows 10050 as corrective, expect a corrective rally pattern up into 1.01
Trading Strategy: Be on the right side of 10072 of course wait for the retest as support or resistance and try and work out the small Elliott pattern within SG2 impulsive or corrective, if it is corrective then it’s a continuation pattern. Also line the AUD with the SP500 patternIndices
Dow Jones CFDs 12,030
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: 12,000 support and expect a bounce in three waves
Elliott Wave: If the move up yesterday is bullish then it is Wave (i) and the current pullback is Wave (ii) we should then look at the Wave (ii) as an abc corrective pattern, so the move down is just the Wave a and a Wave b would occur next around or off the 12,000 in three wave, as b wave away have three waves ( a smaller set of abc) Once Wave b is completed the a Wave c (five waves) SO the Wave a is down as it is now and the Wave b up in three waves and the Wave c down in five waves
Trading Strategies: If we are in a Wave (ii) pull back, that is and abc, then really we need to wait for the Wave c to complete then go long into Wave (iii), if we are correct then we are just starting the wave b off 12,000 so wait for this to complete and then trade or wave for the wave c down to complete which will be in five waves, much the same as Wave a. when the five waves are competed wait for a small move up and develop support on a level and start building a long trade in to Wave (iii).
Note: the reason I mentioned shorting Wave c, is simply because if the bullish interpretation is incorrect then the Wave c would actually be part of a larger structure downS&P500 CFDs: 1238
TradingLevels: SG1 {1210|1220|1230} is support and you need to know the significants of each level within SG1 for it to have any meaning. The resistance or the nest level is the Midpoint 1250 followed by SG2 {1265|1272|1280} if the price does move up in line with the bullish Elliott wave count then the SG2 will be an important zone you have to understand to navigate. The wave structure for the bullish count will be a Wave (iii) a powerful structure however the 1272 will be a tough line to cross, so don’t over react, observe and while you’re at it observe yourself reacting, after all part of the trading battle is against yourself
Wave count: One the bullish side, the move up from 1200 to 1255 is wave (i) and the current pullback is Wave (ii) next is the Wave (iii) up making new highs. The Wave (ii) should be and abc a 5-3-5 structure which will unfold next session.
Trading Strategies: Understanding the abc pattern for wave (ii) would be helpfulFTSE 100 CFDs: 5400
TradingLevels: SG2 5372 support will 5400 develop as support if so build in long in line with the SP500 wave count
Elliott Wave: The move up from 5320 to 5480 is being considered as Wave (i) and the current pull back is Wave (ii) this wave (ii) can be completed at SG2 however we should also expect that wave (ii) delivers an abc pattern, so the current move down is considered wave a of an abc correction, however the current low should stay in place so going long from SG2 would be the go
Day Trading Strategies: Long of the long at 5372 SG2 or 5400 as solid support
SPI CFDs 4110
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 4100 needs to build as support for any long trades
Elliott Wave: The move up yesterday is being considered as Wave (i) and the down last night the Wave (ii)
Day Trading Strategies: Trading the sublevels. The move down last night appears to be an impulse wave, so we are considering it part of Wave (ii) the Wave a of an abc corrective pattern, we should now see a Wave b up, Wave b will be in three waves a smaller set of abc 5-3-5, this is tricky to trade, so scalp rather than looking for the trend and therefor work the SG1. The current pull back for Wave(ii) is 618% around the 4090 so that should maintain support the actual volume support is at SG2 4072. So keep an eye on the Copper and the US Dollar you want that under 80 for a move up here as the AUD will help lift the cashSummary
As you know we have been working two counts and just moving with the bias of either count until things become clear, we started to see a bullish impulse wave yesterday in the US markets so we cut our stock shorts which were smaller position sizing because we aren’t in a trend, so it was not big deal as such. We also didn’t really go long yesterday either partly because of Xmas but mainly because the move up yesterday was an unfinished impulse wave (five waves) and once its finished as Wave (i) it will pull back for Wave (ii) which it has done and the next move is Wave (iii) up then four and five… This Wave (ii) can be completed in terms of distance down i.e. 61.8% but in terms of pattern I think its only the Wave a of an abc correction (Zigzag) so you can go long today but keeping wider stops to accommodate the Wave c down. I will explain all of this in the videoWeekly bullish cycle, Wednesday creates the weekly high and Thursday opens higher but trades down as the bear day? If this is the case then it’s the drying up of selling volume in the afternoon you build a long position and Friday should see more buying volume move in with a stronger close. However Friday on the ASX closes early because of Xmas I can’t remember what time, so you best check. If the bullish count is correct then once Friday is finished the market would be set up for a long trade in the first session when it opens again? We will have a better idea about this after the US close tonight.
Trading QuoteDon’t drink too much over Xmas, send it to box 262 Berry 2535 :-}
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD GDP q/q 0.1%
Tentative JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
4:00pm JPY BOJ Monthly Report
8:00pm EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.2% -0.4%
8:30pm GBP Current Account -5.2B -2.0B
8:30pm GBP Final GDP q/q 0.5% 0.5%
8:30pm GBP Revised Business Investment q/q -1.3% -1.4%
12:30am USD Unemployment Claims 376K 366K
12:30am USD Final GDP q/q 2.0% 2.0%
12:30am USD Final GDP Price Index q/q 2.5% 2.5%
1:55am USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 68.1 67.7
1:55am USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 3.1%
2:00am USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.4% 0.9%
2:00am USD OFHEO HPI m/m 0.3% 0.9%
2:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -102B
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
CFD Trading Report
To get Free Access to the CFD Trading Report click on Treading Education from TradingLounge.com.au
CFD Trading Report, This is a technical analysis report looking at the strength and weakness of the global market drivers, from this report we start applying our CFD Trading Strategies and CFD Trading Systems to the market direction.
Watch video on CFD Trading Report here at youtube: http://youtu.be/YqQTX-9Y-Fw
Dow Jones – 11,905 +0.69% (6.30AM)
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1577
Oil WTI CFD: 95.74
Copper CFD: 326
US Dollar CFD: 80.30
EURUSD 1.30
AUDUSD 0.9933
Dow Jones CFD 11880
S&P500 CFD: 1220
FTSE 100 CFD: 5400
SPI CFD 4150
News
U.S. stocks sank for a third straight day as falling commodity prices added to investor NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks gained after investors took heart from stronger U.S. economic data, but fell off session highs after the head of the International Monetary Fund stoked fears that Europe's sovereign-debt crisis is worsening.
Stocks rose after the Labour Department said a seasonally adjusted 366,000 workers filed initial jobless claims in the week ended Dec. 10, well below forecasts and the lowest since May 2008. The figures were the latest indication the weak jobs market is slowly building strength. The four-week moving average of new jobless claims fell to its lowest level since July 2008.
CFD Trading Report Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1577
Elliott wave count, finishing wave v) of (iii) into 1560 – 1550 then Wave (iv) a sideways corrective pattern within the range of 1550 – 1600. Once completed then Wave (v) down to 1500. Wave (iv) can get complicated, it’s a place that short term traders can lose money getting stopped out etc. it can really do your head in, so either stay short with wide stop above 1600 and take part profit here to 1550 or leave Wave (iv) alone once it bounces off 1550Sliver no change, just the bounce off mTL8 | 28.00 to retest 30.00 then down again. However the rest to 30.00 may not make it that far, study the corrective rally pattern (small wave four) and work with the 29.00 and sublevels around 2900Oil WTI CFD: 95.74
Oil is vibrating around the Midpoint 95 and will drop lower once completed into Minor Group1 93|92|91 expect the price to bounce around a lot into MG1, its likely to bounce from 93 back to 95, then down into 92 and this is where the support is, sure the is MediumLevel support at 90.00 which is the MediumLevel. We also have to be aware of another wave count, I have mentioned the pattern down in the Global indices can be bullish corrective as it has confirmed the larger downside as yet, so the oil can be a larger ABC pattern down from 100 to 90 and then a move back above 100 in line with Indices making one more new high, this is not a matter of opinions, it’s a wave count that needs to play out one way or the other and we need to be aware of it, I will outline this in today’s video. However at the moment the trend is down and we are trading down, but we must also scale out profits into the 90 and if the 90 becomes the resistance then move back in short, this way we can accommodate any possible uprising in a balanced way Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.24-
US Nickel: Last: 8.06+
US Zinc: Last: 0.83-
US Aluminium Last: 0.87+Copper CFD: 326
Base Metals are slightly positive today, we should expect support and bouncing around a lot within Minor Group1 330|320|310 the price should stay under 338 and eventually get trapped further into MG1. As mentioned in Oil an Alternative count across all markets is possible and today is about studying this Alternative count while it has the structure to unfold, this would put copper back retesting 350 supply levels and making the daily pattern sitting on 300 a larger Triangle ABCDE and we would be in the lower end of Wave D now with an Wave E to move up from the 310, this is an Alternative count but must be put on the table until proven otherwise, this would also make the AUDUSD and ASX move higher and we will look at their Alternative structures in line with the US Indices Forex CFD Trading Report
US Dollar CFD: 80.30
Most markets are having a small wave four rally, so the US Dollar is having its small wave four pull back into the 80 as would naturally be expected, once this pullback is completed another push up to 81 and then another correction back into 80 this would be the creeping topping part of the trend we were talking about yesterday as trends have a beginning middle and end, they are also fractals so they are part of a larger pattern and they contain smaller patterns, the other element is the geometry of nature and the psychology, essentially creating the larger corrective pattern across TL8|80 this is the first high above the level with the ‘Classic Pattern’ after the first high above a level and this one is still playing out, but once completed a larger corrective pattern should unfold, this will give the other markets including stock a chance to rise and this is connected to the Alternative count we are talking about today
EURUSD 1.30
Day Trading: the price is in a small wave four at 130 and wave fours are complicated and best left alone. If SG1 13030 finds support then trade long for the short term, if the 130 becomes the resistance than work the levels in SG2 any shorting would require the 72 as resistance 12972
Elliott Wave: Wave (iv) is unfolding at 130 and potentially can move higher, but it is corrective and once completed move down for wave five (iv)
CFD Trading Report: : Once this wave four is completed at 130 then it’s down, it’s fine to scalp 10 pips here and there but wave fours don’t bring trends. The bigger picture traders hold shortAUDUSD 0.9933
Day Trading The short term is about retesting 1.00, failing the retest for another probe lower. The current trend pattern up to 1.00 from 9860 is in three waves, i.e. corrective. However corrective patterns can expand so the move up could be only one leg of the corrective pattern, you would need to observe the other currencies and the Indices
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart)
CFD Trading Report: Continue to scalp through the sublevels while around 1.00
CFD Trading Report Indices
Dow Jones CFD 11880
Day Trading: Let’s keep it simply while the price is under 12,000 it’s bearish and above bullish
Elliott Wave: The expected bounce of 11,800 MinorLevel mTL8 is underway and should complete under 12,000 and then move lower through 11,800. As mentioned yesterday the current move down can still be corrective or an impulse wave unfolding in a series on waves ones and twos, we are short until proven otherwise, but we need to be aware of the corrective pattern and line it up with the other markets in case there is a turn up next week.
CFD Trading Report: : The resistance is at 12,000 then 11,900 on a failed retest. The support at 11,500 is the critical game changer, as support a bullish Elliott wave count exists the 11,500 as resistance creates the larger bearish pattern Intermediate Wave (3) down only time will tell, however we have to line our trading plan to accommodate both patterns S&P500 CFD: 1220
Day Trading: Support 1,200 if support is found on top of Subgroup1 SG1 1230 then expect further upside, if the pivot in SG1 1220 develops as resistance then expect 1200 to be tested
Wave count: We have two count one bullish as in the charts on the site and one bearish here while the 1250 remain the resistance, it is what occurs above the 1200 support that will create the divide between the two wave counts, as it unfolding there will be degrees of bias and it starts with the pivot 1220 as support or resistance
CFD Trading Report: : Short term will depend on 1220 as support or resistanceFTSE 100 CFD: 5400
Day Trading Bias short under 5372
Elliott Wave: The pattern at 5400 is corrective, but it can expand, the move up could be only the wave a of an abc corrective pattern the 5372 as resistance would be the safer short
CFD Trading Report: : If the price gets trapped in SG2 especially the 5372 then short but while its above we have to accommodate a larger abc corrective pattern
SPI CFD 4150
Day Trading The 4200 is the pivot within Minor Group1 and while the price is under this then the bias is weaker and above as support we would need to be long. From that we can continue to break bias down to the point within your trading time frame, if you’re a sublevel trader you would consider the 4100 as support and the 4150 the Midpoint you would simply be long or short from this number, drilling down you would look at the pattern and volume at the midpoint, you would use your skill of pattern recognition including your understanding of the retest checking the price and confirm that with the volume, then you would scale in accordingly and you know the levels where you have to exit.
Elliott Wave: There are two counts as mentioned in the DJI SP500 but also consider the Elliott wave count on the AUDUSD because the current price on the ASX200 SPI has support off the 4000, so long trade are fine too, you just need to know the price that’s supports the market in your trading time frame you can’t trade without know that price
CFD Trading Report: : While the price is under the 4172 SG2 the pressure is down, the Midpoint is next, the move up off the 4100 appears to be corrective (three waves) but its early yet. It’s all about the Midpoint being long or short from this price point.CFD Trading Report Summary
Today is talking about the current small wave four pullback before a move lower and to also talk about the bullish alternative count in the markets, which is a bullish count, while it exists and until proven otherwise we have to include it in our thinking, that is, in our trading decisions.
We may have to turn long next week and this would mean packing up our short trades and catching the train north.Weekly Cycle, Thursday bearish with selling volume drying up which is the first sign of support, Friday; if Fridays close is strong on higher volume then Monday will be the bull day. This means we would need to see the price and volume increase steadily throughout the day and day traders would move with this. That said, we are expecting this current move up a corrective covering wave four rally and once completed another move down, either way you need to know your price points and the patterns that wrap around your price points as support or resistance and look to the volume to confirm the price action, analysis is one thing, but trading is another and you need to trade what you see and we use the levels, volume and Robo these tools control the risk, they also get you on the right side at the right time, they also let you know where to take profits and place stops.
Trading QuoteThe markets are clearly not a random walk. The markets are not even efficient because that assumption implies you can’t make an above-average return. Since some people can do that, I disagree with the assumption. Monroe Trout
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
Tentative GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence 34 36
7:30pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
9:00pm EUR Trade Balance 1.3B 2.1B
12:30am CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 8.23B 7.35B
12:30am USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
12:30am USD CPI m/m 0.1% -0.1%
3:15am USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
4:00am USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Free Stuff on Technical Analysis is available on TradingLounge.com.au site!
CFD Trading Report, This is a technical analysis report looking at the strength and weakness of the global market drivers, from this report we start applying our CFD Trading Strategies and CFD Trading Systems to the market direction.
Watch video on CFD Trading Report here at youtube: http://youtu.be/YqQTX-9Y-Fw
Dow Jones – 11,905 +0.69% (6.30AM)
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1577
Oil WTI CFD: 95.74
Copper CFD: 326
US Dollar CFD: 80.30
EURUSD 1.30
AUDUSD 0.9933
Dow Jones CFD 11880
S&P500 CFD: 1220
FTSE 100 CFD: 5400
SPI CFD 4150
News
U.S. stocks sank for a third straight day as falling commodity prices added to investor NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks gained after investors took heart from stronger U.S. economic data, but fell off session highs after the head of the International Monetary Fund stoked fears that Europe's sovereign-debt crisis is worsening.
Stocks rose after the Labour Department said a seasonally adjusted 366,000 workers filed initial jobless claims in the week ended Dec. 10, well below forecasts and the lowest since May 2008. The figures were the latest indication the weak jobs market is slowly building strength. The four-week moving average of new jobless claims fell to its lowest level since July 2008.
CFD Trading Report Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1577
Elliott wave count, finishing wave v) of (iii) into 1560 – 1550 then Wave (iv) a sideways corrective pattern within the range of 1550 – 1600. Once completed then Wave (v) down to 1500. Wave (iv) can get complicated, it’s a place that short term traders can lose money getting stopped out etc. it can really do your head in, so either stay short with wide stop above 1600 and take part profit here to 1550 or leave Wave (iv) alone once it bounces off 1550Sliver no change, just the bounce off mTL8 | 28.00 to retest 30.00 then down again. However the rest to 30.00 may not make it that far, study the corrective rally pattern (small wave four) and work with the 29.00 and sublevels around 2900Oil WTI CFD: 95.74
Oil is vibrating around the Midpoint 95 and will drop lower once completed into Minor Group1 93|92|91 expect the price to bounce around a lot into MG1, its likely to bounce from 93 back to 95, then down into 92 and this is where the support is, sure the is MediumLevel support at 90.00 which is the MediumLevel. We also have to be aware of another wave count, I have mentioned the pattern down in the Global indices can be bullish corrective as it has confirmed the larger downside as yet, so the oil can be a larger ABC pattern down from 100 to 90 and then a move back above 100 in line with Indices making one more new high, this is not a matter of opinions, it’s a wave count that needs to play out one way or the other and we need to be aware of it, I will outline this in today’s video. However at the moment the trend is down and we are trading down, but we must also scale out profits into the 90 and if the 90 becomes the resistance then move back in short, this way we can accommodate any possible uprising in a balanced way Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.24-
US Nickel: Last: 8.06+
US Zinc: Last: 0.83-
US Aluminium Last: 0.87+Copper CFD: 326
Base Metals are slightly positive today, we should expect support and bouncing around a lot within Minor Group1 330|320|310 the price should stay under 338 and eventually get trapped further into MG1. As mentioned in Oil an Alternative count across all markets is possible and today is about studying this Alternative count while it has the structure to unfold, this would put copper back retesting 350 supply levels and making the daily pattern sitting on 300 a larger Triangle ABCDE and we would be in the lower end of Wave D now with an Wave E to move up from the 310, this is an Alternative count but must be put on the table until proven otherwise, this would also make the AUDUSD and ASX move higher and we will look at their Alternative structures in line with the US Indices Forex CFD Trading Report
US Dollar CFD: 80.30
Most markets are having a small wave four rally, so the US Dollar is having its small wave four pull back into the 80 as would naturally be expected, once this pullback is completed another push up to 81 and then another correction back into 80 this would be the creeping topping part of the trend we were talking about yesterday as trends have a beginning middle and end, they are also fractals so they are part of a larger pattern and they contain smaller patterns, the other element is the geometry of nature and the psychology, essentially creating the larger corrective pattern across TL8|80 this is the first high above the level with the ‘Classic Pattern’ after the first high above a level and this one is still playing out, but once completed a larger corrective pattern should unfold, this will give the other markets including stock a chance to rise and this is connected to the Alternative count we are talking about today
EURUSD 1.30
Day Trading: the price is in a small wave four at 130 and wave fours are complicated and best left alone. If SG1 13030 finds support then trade long for the short term, if the 130 becomes the resistance than work the levels in SG2 any shorting would require the 72 as resistance 12972
Elliott Wave: Wave (iv) is unfolding at 130 and potentially can move higher, but it is corrective and once completed move down for wave five (iv)
CFD Trading Report: : Once this wave four is completed at 130 then it’s down, it’s fine to scalp 10 pips here and there but wave fours don’t bring trends. The bigger picture traders hold shortAUDUSD 0.9933
Day Trading The short term is about retesting 1.00, failing the retest for another probe lower. The current trend pattern up to 1.00 from 9860 is in three waves, i.e. corrective. However corrective patterns can expand so the move up could be only one leg of the corrective pattern, you would need to observe the other currencies and the Indices
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart)
CFD Trading Report: Continue to scalp through the sublevels while around 1.00
CFD Trading Report Indices
Dow Jones CFD 11880
Day Trading: Let’s keep it simply while the price is under 12,000 it’s bearish and above bullish
Elliott Wave: The expected bounce of 11,800 MinorLevel mTL8 is underway and should complete under 12,000 and then move lower through 11,800. As mentioned yesterday the current move down can still be corrective or an impulse wave unfolding in a series on waves ones and twos, we are short until proven otherwise, but we need to be aware of the corrective pattern and line it up with the other markets in case there is a turn up next week.
CFD Trading Report: : The resistance is at 12,000 then 11,900 on a failed retest. The support at 11,500 is the critical game changer, as support a bullish Elliott wave count exists the 11,500 as resistance creates the larger bearish pattern Intermediate Wave (3) down only time will tell, however we have to line our trading plan to accommodate both patterns S&P500 CFD: 1220
Day Trading: Support 1,200 if support is found on top of Subgroup1 SG1 1230 then expect further upside, if the pivot in SG1 1220 develops as resistance then expect 1200 to be tested
Wave count: We have two count one bullish as in the charts on the site and one bearish here while the 1250 remain the resistance, it is what occurs above the 1200 support that will create the divide between the two wave counts, as it unfolding there will be degrees of bias and it starts with the pivot 1220 as support or resistance
CFD Trading Report: : Short term will depend on 1220 as support or resistanceFTSE 100 CFD: 5400
Day Trading Bias short under 5372
Elliott Wave: The pattern at 5400 is corrective, but it can expand, the move up could be only the wave a of an abc corrective pattern the 5372 as resistance would be the safer short
CFD Trading Report: : If the price gets trapped in SG2 especially the 5372 then short but while its above we have to accommodate a larger abc corrective pattern
SPI CFD 4150
Day Trading The 4200 is the pivot within Minor Group1 and while the price is under this then the bias is weaker and above as support we would need to be long. From that we can continue to break bias down to the point within your trading time frame, if you’re a sublevel trader you would consider the 4100 as support and the 4150 the Midpoint you would simply be long or short from this number, drilling down you would look at the pattern and volume at the midpoint, you would use your skill of pattern recognition including your understanding of the retest checking the price and confirm that with the volume, then you would scale in accordingly and you know the levels where you have to exit.
Elliott Wave: There are two counts as mentioned in the DJI SP500 but also consider the Elliott wave count on the AUDUSD because the current price on the ASX200 SPI has support off the 4000, so long trade are fine too, you just need to know the price that’s supports the market in your trading time frame you can’t trade without know that price
CFD Trading Report: : While the price is under the 4172 SG2 the pressure is down, the Midpoint is next, the move up off the 4100 appears to be corrective (three waves) but its early yet. It’s all about the Midpoint being long or short from this price point.CFD Trading Report Summary
Today is talking about the current small wave four pullback before a move lower and to also talk about the bullish alternative count in the markets, which is a bullish count, while it exists and until proven otherwise we have to include it in our thinking, that is, in our trading decisions.
We may have to turn long next week and this would mean packing up our short trades and catching the train north.Weekly Cycle, Thursday bearish with selling volume drying up which is the first sign of support, Friday; if Fridays close is strong on higher volume then Monday will be the bull day. This means we would need to see the price and volume increase steadily throughout the day and day traders would move with this. That said, we are expecting this current move up a corrective covering wave four rally and once completed another move down, either way you need to know your price points and the patterns that wrap around your price points as support or resistance and look to the volume to confirm the price action, analysis is one thing, but trading is another and you need to trade what you see and we use the levels, volume and Robo these tools control the risk, they also get you on the right side at the right time, they also let you know where to take profits and place stops.
Trading QuoteThe markets are clearly not a random walk. The markets are not even efficient because that assumption implies you can’t make an above-average return. Since some people can do that, I disagree with the assumption. Monroe Trout
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
Tentative GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence 34 36
7:30pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
9:00pm EUR Trade Balance 1.3B 2.1B
12:30am CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 8.23B 7.35B
12:30am USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
12:30am USD CPI m/m 0.1% -0.1%
3:15am USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
4:00am USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Free Stuff on Technical Analysis is available on TradingLounge.com.au site!
CFD Trading Strategies
http://tradinglounge.com.au
CFD Trading Strategies in this video are using Elliott Wave and TradingLevels, however the actually CFD Trading Strategies we use to trade the NYSE NASDAQ ASX are Mechanical CFD Trading Strategies, you can get a free trial and see the CFD Strategies and CFD Trades at TradingLounge.com.au We are friendly affordable and open to educating you in what we know. FREE TRIAL !
CFD Trading Strategies
Dow Jones – 11,831 -1.04%
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1577
Oil WTI CFD: 95.74
Copper CFD: 326
US Dollar CFD: 80.50
EURUSD 1.30
AUDUSD 0.9930
Dow Jones CFD 11880
S&P500 CFD: 1213
FTSE 100 CFD: 5382
SPI CFD 4200
News
U.S. stocks sank for a third straight day as falling commodity prices added to investor anxiety over the euro and a jump in Italy's borrowing costs.
CFD Trading Strategies Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1577
The clear impulse wave (five waves) is certainly picking up speed as the US dollar moves higher and the indices sell off. The next target is approaching quickly, which is the next MediumLevel 1500 (ML15).
There is the sublevels that the price needs to navigate, first up is Subgroup2 {SG2 1580|1572|1565} followed be the Midpoint 1550, then Subgroup1 {SG1 – 1530|1520|1510}.
At each of these three levels expect corrective price action and plan your trading around them. The Elliott wave structure has further downside to get to 1500 with only a small wave four to navigate, the larger corrective pattern should come at 1500. There is still more downside to come after the corrective pattern at 1500Sliver; now has a nice clean break through 30.00 (TL3) the first MinorLevel is 28 (mTL8) The third short position should come from a failed retest, either of the 30.00 or the 28.00, if it is the 30.00 then great and also place the fourth trade on the failed retest of 28.00, do not over trade, under trading actually makes more money in the long run, simply because you can allow yourself to do the right thing and the right time and allow that to play out fully.Oil WTI CFD: 95.74
I’m glad Oil is down, as I could get my head around where the upside was coming from, I was starting to wonder if the hedge funds were trying to push it again like they did last time when it when to 140+ . Anyway once it locks under 95 the Midpoint then its free to let go of 100. Any shorting of Oil stocks on the ASX NYSE should be part positions and looking to add if 95 then 90 become the resistance. As the pattern above 95 is still a bullish corrective pattern and not a clear impulse wave down, so in the structure so far there is no real evidence for further downside, it’s just last night’s move swing the boas to the bearish position and therefore we can laydown amounts according to that, i.e. one small position short in stock that we can add to later if correctBase Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.24-
US Nickel: Last: 7.89-
US Zinc: Last: 0.83-
US Aluminium Last: 0.86-Copper CFD: 326
We could see the selling pressure here yesterday and it has followed through, copper can be such a good guide to the other markets. The price range is extending, expanding down, so will the markets related to this the ASX XMJ AUD etc. We chose this sector yesterday over the energy sector to short and this can continue but the energy sector is starting to pull into line on the down side.Forex
US Dollar CFD: 80.50
The shorter trend to count is the move up from 78 which should top out at 81 or 82 and fold back to 80 checking for support, start counting the waves up from 78 I think the current high is nearly the top of wave three, so a four and five to go then a larger pull back towards 80, I know I’m a little loose here with prices, it’s just that the Euro is so news driven waves can extend or contract form market intervention, it’s not the normal psychological flow, we see this a lot with the yen
EURUSD 1.30
TradingLevels: The MinorLevel mTL3|1.30 expect the price to consolidate here before move down to the next level 1.20 of course this will take to reach but its important to understand the price is now entering Minor Group1 (MG1) then we can take our thinking into the sublevel terrain. While the price is here at 130 the US Dollar will be at 80, try and see these two markets not only pushing and pulling of each other but the price they are also doing it with, if you’re having trouble with the wave count on the Dollar then bring in the USDCHF and CAD to get a sense of what’s unfolding
Elliott Wave: Wave (iv) about to unfold at 130
CFDTrading Strategies: We are expecting a wave four at 130 and in Elliott trading we don’t trade wave four. That said; trade the sublevels around the MinorLevel 130 essentially scalping the sublevels.
Daily and Weekly Robo traders can cover part profits here, while wave four is unfolding as the price can move back to the wave four of one lesser degree 13072 and maybe 131, we cannot forget that Europe is the catalyst for headline news. The Euro normally has shallow rallies and a wave four is normally the 38.2% of wave three. You can also use the levels, such as, if support is found on SG1 then the price will get to the Midpoint and if the Midpoint finds support then look at SG2, this way you know what to do and how much exposure you are willing to accept AUDUSD 0.9930
TradingLevels: The Euro is will find support on 130 and the AUD on 99, the TL1 | 1.00 hasn’t been retested yet, which is normally done from the 99 and the 98. The 98 is the first MinorLevel and is also lower trend line support, so consider it the main support below the 1.00
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart)
CFD Trading Strategies:: Continue to scalp through the sublevels while around 1.00
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 11880
TradingLevels: If the 11,800 mTL8 becomes resistance then another layer of weakness is created, the first is simply being under 12000 and 11,800 as resistance is where you would add to shorts. The MediumLevel 11,500 is the game changer. Other smaller levels worth noting such as 11,772, 11,720 and 11650 will have their say.
Elliott Wave: In the bigger picture there are still two wave counts a bullish and bearish, from a trading point of view we have to trade what we see and that is the bear
CFD Trading Strategies: We started to short stocks on the NYSE last night and will continue with that. Once the price is locked under the 11,800 then the target is 11500 and Intermediate Wave (3) would be underwayS&P500 CFD: 1213
TradingLevels: Under 1250 was the first bearish signal, the next is 1,200 (mTL2). There is also trendline support cutting through just below 1,200
Wave count: Like the Dow there are two wave counts one positive and one negative, so that’s not much help to us, but from a trading point of view the 1250 and then the 1,200 should tell you what side of the market to be on
CFD Trading Strategies: Choose you degree of structure to trade i.e. MicroLevels, Sublevels or MinorLevels and then create your trading rules and money management rules around this size of structure, then continue to refine your trading within this, this refinement can only be done from making mistakes as mistakes are your experience, don’t change the size of the structure your trading while in the trade, stay in the frame.FTSE 100 CFD: 5382
TradingLevels: Lower highs on the hourly chart and retesting MinorLevels and certain Subgroups such as 5472 and now the play is at 5400 and 5372 SG2, you have to be there at the time, but it doesn’t get any easier that seeing this market unfold
Elliott Wave: It certainly looks like a series of waves one and twos unfolding from the 5600 highs, if this is the case then the market should pick up speed to the downside
CFD Trading Strategies: Sell the retests at the levels and check the volume, you want to see lower volume on the retests
SPI CFD 4200
TradingLevels: Next level 4100 which is the 61.8% retracement level of the last trend up, so expect support
Elliott Wave: Unsure, its either a corrective more down or a much larger bear market unfolding
CFD Trading Strategies: Trade the sublevels and trade lower to 4100CFD Trading Strategies Summary
Going Going… The wave structures down for the global indices can still be corrective and therefore see a move higher or the corrective structures are actually a series of waves ones and twos of Intermediate Wave (3) unfolding and this is a serious move down, that is the 2008 bear market was about company debt and that was Intermediate Wave (1), this is about sovereign debt and Wave (3) is always bigger than Wave (1) we are still a long way off confirming this, but we should at least understand the structure and see if it all falls into place and if so, how are we going to trade this? You know already that we have been short on the Euro and long on the dollar and next job is to get short on the US Indices for the long term and this would be at Minor Wave 2 within Intermediate Wave (3) I suggest using options or futures contract with your CFD trading, the reason for this is that its normally way Three when governments ban CFDs and you will be told to exit short positions. I must point out that the above is just a scenario that can play out and I can certainly be wrong and in this game its not about being wrong or right its about preparation meeting opportunity and in the end it doesn’t matter which way the market goes we just need to be on the right side with the right amount and the right timeIn the meantime on the ASX NYSE NASDAQ we will look for shorts.
Yesterday – Wednesday in the weekly cycle as you know is opening lower in the morning session and closing higher, we don’t normally short on that day but the wave count called for it and that should pan out ok, you know what Thursday is? So it’s the volume in the afternoon session that is the key, I’m not going to spell this out, you need to think it out.
Trading QuoteNever let your market decisions be restricted or influenced by concern over what others might think. Don’t worry about looking stupid.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:30am NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 46.5
10:50am JPY Tankan Manufacturing Index -2 2
10:50am JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index 1 1
11:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 2.5%
11:30am AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 1.1%
11:30am AUD RBA Bulletin
1:30pm CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.7
7:00pm EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.1 47.3
7:00pm EUR French Flash Services PMI 49.2 49.6
7:15pm CHF Industrial Production q/q -0.7% 3.6%
7:30pm CHF Libor Rate <0.25% <0.25%
7:30pm CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
7:30pm CHF SNB Press Conference
7:30pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.6 47.9
7:30pm EUR German Flash Services PMI 50.1 50.3
8:00pm EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
8:00pm EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 46.1 46.4
8:00pm EUR Flash Services PMI 47.1 47.5
8:30pm GBP Retail Sales m/m -0.2% 0.6%
8:30pm GBP Consumer Inflation Expectations 4.2%
9:00pm EUR CPI y/y 3.0% 3.0%
9:00pm EUR Core CPI y/y 1.7% 1.6%
9:00pm EUR Employment Change q/q 0.2% 0.3%
10:00pm GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations -20 -19
10:25pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
12:30am CAD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.9% 78.4%
12:30am USD PPI m/m 0.3% -0.3%
12:30am USD Unemployment Claims 389K 381K
12:30am USD Core PPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%
12:30am USD Current Account -108B -118B
12:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 3.1 0.6
1:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 53.4B 68.6B
1:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 77.9% 77.8%
1:15am USD Industrial Production m/m 0.3% 0.7%
2:00am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 5.1 3.6
2:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -20BNOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Free Stuff on Technical Analysis is available on TradingLounge.com.au site!
CFD Trading Strategies in this video are using Elliott Wave and TradingLevels, however the actually CFD Trading Strategies we use to trade the NYSE NASDAQ ASX are Mechanical CFD Trading Strategies, you can get a free trial and see the CFD Strategies and CFD Trades at TradingLounge.com.au We are friendly affordable and open to educating you in what we know. FREE TRIAL !
CFD Trading Strategies
Dow Jones – 11,831 -1.04%
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1577
Oil WTI CFD: 95.74
Copper CFD: 326
US Dollar CFD: 80.50
EURUSD 1.30
AUDUSD 0.9930
Dow Jones CFD 11880
S&P500 CFD: 1213
FTSE 100 CFD: 5382
SPI CFD 4200
News
U.S. stocks sank for a third straight day as falling commodity prices added to investor anxiety over the euro and a jump in Italy's borrowing costs.
CFD Trading Strategies Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1577
The clear impulse wave (five waves) is certainly picking up speed as the US dollar moves higher and the indices sell off. The next target is approaching quickly, which is the next MediumLevel 1500 (ML15).
There is the sublevels that the price needs to navigate, first up is Subgroup2 {SG2 1580|1572|1565} followed be the Midpoint 1550, then Subgroup1 {SG1 – 1530|1520|1510}.
At each of these three levels expect corrective price action and plan your trading around them. The Elliott wave structure has further downside to get to 1500 with only a small wave four to navigate, the larger corrective pattern should come at 1500. There is still more downside to come after the corrective pattern at 1500Sliver; now has a nice clean break through 30.00 (TL3) the first MinorLevel is 28 (mTL8) The third short position should come from a failed retest, either of the 30.00 or the 28.00, if it is the 30.00 then great and also place the fourth trade on the failed retest of 28.00, do not over trade, under trading actually makes more money in the long run, simply because you can allow yourself to do the right thing and the right time and allow that to play out fully.Oil WTI CFD: 95.74
I’m glad Oil is down, as I could get my head around where the upside was coming from, I was starting to wonder if the hedge funds were trying to push it again like they did last time when it when to 140+ . Anyway once it locks under 95 the Midpoint then its free to let go of 100. Any shorting of Oil stocks on the ASX NYSE should be part positions and looking to add if 95 then 90 become the resistance. As the pattern above 95 is still a bullish corrective pattern and not a clear impulse wave down, so in the structure so far there is no real evidence for further downside, it’s just last night’s move swing the boas to the bearish position and therefore we can laydown amounts according to that, i.e. one small position short in stock that we can add to later if correctBase Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.24-
US Nickel: Last: 7.89-
US Zinc: Last: 0.83-
US Aluminium Last: 0.86-Copper CFD: 326
We could see the selling pressure here yesterday and it has followed through, copper can be such a good guide to the other markets. The price range is extending, expanding down, so will the markets related to this the ASX XMJ AUD etc. We chose this sector yesterday over the energy sector to short and this can continue but the energy sector is starting to pull into line on the down side.Forex
US Dollar CFD: 80.50
The shorter trend to count is the move up from 78 which should top out at 81 or 82 and fold back to 80 checking for support, start counting the waves up from 78 I think the current high is nearly the top of wave three, so a four and five to go then a larger pull back towards 80, I know I’m a little loose here with prices, it’s just that the Euro is so news driven waves can extend or contract form market intervention, it’s not the normal psychological flow, we see this a lot with the yen
EURUSD 1.30
TradingLevels: The MinorLevel mTL3|1.30 expect the price to consolidate here before move down to the next level 1.20 of course this will take to reach but its important to understand the price is now entering Minor Group1 (MG1) then we can take our thinking into the sublevel terrain. While the price is here at 130 the US Dollar will be at 80, try and see these two markets not only pushing and pulling of each other but the price they are also doing it with, if you’re having trouble with the wave count on the Dollar then bring in the USDCHF and CAD to get a sense of what’s unfolding
Elliott Wave: Wave (iv) about to unfold at 130
CFDTrading Strategies: We are expecting a wave four at 130 and in Elliott trading we don’t trade wave four. That said; trade the sublevels around the MinorLevel 130 essentially scalping the sublevels.
Daily and Weekly Robo traders can cover part profits here, while wave four is unfolding as the price can move back to the wave four of one lesser degree 13072 and maybe 131, we cannot forget that Europe is the catalyst for headline news. The Euro normally has shallow rallies and a wave four is normally the 38.2% of wave three. You can also use the levels, such as, if support is found on SG1 then the price will get to the Midpoint and if the Midpoint finds support then look at SG2, this way you know what to do and how much exposure you are willing to accept AUDUSD 0.9930
TradingLevels: The Euro is will find support on 130 and the AUD on 99, the TL1 | 1.00 hasn’t been retested yet, which is normally done from the 99 and the 98. The 98 is the first MinorLevel and is also lower trend line support, so consider it the main support below the 1.00
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart)
CFD Trading Strategies:: Continue to scalp through the sublevels while around 1.00
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 11880
TradingLevels: If the 11,800 mTL8 becomes resistance then another layer of weakness is created, the first is simply being under 12000 and 11,800 as resistance is where you would add to shorts. The MediumLevel 11,500 is the game changer. Other smaller levels worth noting such as 11,772, 11,720 and 11650 will have their say.
Elliott Wave: In the bigger picture there are still two wave counts a bullish and bearish, from a trading point of view we have to trade what we see and that is the bear
CFD Trading Strategies: We started to short stocks on the NYSE last night and will continue with that. Once the price is locked under the 11,800 then the target is 11500 and Intermediate Wave (3) would be underwayS&P500 CFD: 1213
TradingLevels: Under 1250 was the first bearish signal, the next is 1,200 (mTL2). There is also trendline support cutting through just below 1,200
Wave count: Like the Dow there are two wave counts one positive and one negative, so that’s not much help to us, but from a trading point of view the 1250 and then the 1,200 should tell you what side of the market to be on
CFD Trading Strategies: Choose you degree of structure to trade i.e. MicroLevels, Sublevels or MinorLevels and then create your trading rules and money management rules around this size of structure, then continue to refine your trading within this, this refinement can only be done from making mistakes as mistakes are your experience, don’t change the size of the structure your trading while in the trade, stay in the frame.FTSE 100 CFD: 5382
TradingLevels: Lower highs on the hourly chart and retesting MinorLevels and certain Subgroups such as 5472 and now the play is at 5400 and 5372 SG2, you have to be there at the time, but it doesn’t get any easier that seeing this market unfold
Elliott Wave: It certainly looks like a series of waves one and twos unfolding from the 5600 highs, if this is the case then the market should pick up speed to the downside
CFD Trading Strategies: Sell the retests at the levels and check the volume, you want to see lower volume on the retests
SPI CFD 4200
TradingLevels: Next level 4100 which is the 61.8% retracement level of the last trend up, so expect support
Elliott Wave: Unsure, its either a corrective more down or a much larger bear market unfolding
CFD Trading Strategies: Trade the sublevels and trade lower to 4100CFD Trading Strategies Summary
Going Going… The wave structures down for the global indices can still be corrective and therefore see a move higher or the corrective structures are actually a series of waves ones and twos of Intermediate Wave (3) unfolding and this is a serious move down, that is the 2008 bear market was about company debt and that was Intermediate Wave (1), this is about sovereign debt and Wave (3) is always bigger than Wave (1) we are still a long way off confirming this, but we should at least understand the structure and see if it all falls into place and if so, how are we going to trade this? You know already that we have been short on the Euro and long on the dollar and next job is to get short on the US Indices for the long term and this would be at Minor Wave 2 within Intermediate Wave (3) I suggest using options or futures contract with your CFD trading, the reason for this is that its normally way Three when governments ban CFDs and you will be told to exit short positions. I must point out that the above is just a scenario that can play out and I can certainly be wrong and in this game its not about being wrong or right its about preparation meeting opportunity and in the end it doesn’t matter which way the market goes we just need to be on the right side with the right amount and the right timeIn the meantime on the ASX NYSE NASDAQ we will look for shorts.
Yesterday – Wednesday in the weekly cycle as you know is opening lower in the morning session and closing higher, we don’t normally short on that day but the wave count called for it and that should pan out ok, you know what Thursday is? So it’s the volume in the afternoon session that is the key, I’m not going to spell this out, you need to think it out.
Trading QuoteNever let your market decisions be restricted or influenced by concern over what others might think. Don’t worry about looking stupid.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:30am NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 46.5
10:50am JPY Tankan Manufacturing Index -2 2
10:50am JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index 1 1
11:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 2.5%
11:30am AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 1.1%
11:30am AUD RBA Bulletin
1:30pm CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.7
7:00pm EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.1 47.3
7:00pm EUR French Flash Services PMI 49.2 49.6
7:15pm CHF Industrial Production q/q -0.7% 3.6%
7:30pm CHF Libor Rate <0.25% <0.25%
7:30pm CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
7:30pm CHF SNB Press Conference
7:30pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.6 47.9
7:30pm EUR German Flash Services PMI 50.1 50.3
8:00pm EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
8:00pm EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 46.1 46.4
8:00pm EUR Flash Services PMI 47.1 47.5
8:30pm GBP Retail Sales m/m -0.2% 0.6%
8:30pm GBP Consumer Inflation Expectations 4.2%
9:00pm EUR CPI y/y 3.0% 3.0%
9:00pm EUR Core CPI y/y 1.7% 1.6%
9:00pm EUR Employment Change q/q 0.2% 0.3%
10:00pm GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations -20 -19
10:25pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
12:30am CAD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.9% 78.4%
12:30am USD PPI m/m 0.3% -0.3%
12:30am USD Unemployment Claims 389K 381K
12:30am USD Core PPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%
12:30am USD Current Account -108B -118B
12:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 3.1 0.6
1:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 53.4B 68.6B
1:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 77.9% 77.8%
1:15am USD Industrial Production m/m 0.3% 0.7%
2:00am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 5.1 3.6
2:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -20BNOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Free Stuff on Technical Analysis is available on TradingLounge.com.au site!
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