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Day TradingDow Jones 11,866 -0.02%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1598
Oil WTI CFD: 93.52
Copper CFD: 335
US Dollar CFD: 80.66
EURUSD 1.3044
AUDUSD 0.9980
Dow Jones CFD 11880
S&P500 CFD: 1215
FTSE 100 CFD: 5359
SPI CFD 4135
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- An early rally for U.S. stocks faded as investors continued fretting about Europe's debt crisis.The Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 12 points, or 0.1%, at 11856, after earlier rising nearly 100 points. Weighing on the downside was International Business Machines, which dropped 2.2%, and United Technologies, which fell 1.7%.The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index tacked on 3 points, or 0.3%, to 1219. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 14 points, or 0.6%, to 2555
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1598
Following on from the Elliott wave count from the last post, the Wave (iv) retest to 1600 is underway, yes it can pop up in SG1 of 1600 but should fade and fall lower into Wave (v) down at 1500 the MediumLevel (ML15) where it will have a larger bounce, once this bounce is over the price should work lower down through 1500. It is worth point out the significance of this 1500, it is the 50% between 1000 and 2000 and this means if the price finds 1500 as resistance then the balance is towards 1000 (TL1) and not 2000 (TL2) if this is the case then we can start working with the levels below 1500 and they are MinorLevel 1,300, 1,200, 1,100 which are Minor Group1. The normal flow down from one MajorLevel such as 2000 to 1000 is quite simple, let’s just start with 1500 the Medium level, the price would move down to this level and bounce (abc correction) this high is the first high, then the price would bounce off 1500 again creating the second high and so on until the price moved through 1500 and then retested it as resistance and supply levels would be lowering, eventually the weight of the market would be trapped under 1500 and then the same thing would happen at 1300 the top of Minor Group 1. Another point worth noting, is that the price travels quite fast down from 8 to 5 and 5 to 3 they are the best numbers to short betweenSliver The bounce off the first MinorLevel under 30.00 TL3 is 28.00 mTL3 and this is the normal level for the retest of supply i.e. 30.00 TL3 and this is the price to add to short positions, when the price moves through 28.00 also add to shorts and if it retests 28.00 short again, so split the trade up and work it around the 28.00, the much the same as you may have done above TL3. Under 28.00 is 27.72, 27.20 then 26.50 and the MediumLevel 25.00 ML25 you can cover at 25 or when Gold is at 15.00 because the wave count would be expecting a larger rally about there, but we will look at the ending of this structure into these levels and the expected rally later in the weekOil WTI CFD: 93.52
Oil basically follows Indices and Indices will soon make new lows.
The two main points here is that 95 the Midpoint is required as the resistance, this would mean the price would move below 90 towards 80 TL8.
The second point is any current rallies, firstly the price would stay under the 98 mTL8, yes this is high but it is possible on the first retest but probably unlikely, so the secondary level is 95 to 9650, the wave four of one lesser degree is around 96.00 so this would be a comfortable price point to consider, also if the price locks under 92.00 the pivot in Minor Group1 then the price is part of the 90.00 storey and any long term short stops can sit above 95.00 Once 90 is the retested resistance stops can be moved down to 93+ top of MG1.
Elliott Wave – Consider any retest of 95/96 as wave iv) and Wave v) down to 90 which would make Wave (iii) at 90, so a Wave (iv) bounce from 88 – 93 range at 90. This is still the early stages of a bear market…Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.31+
US Nickel: Last: 8.37+
US Zinc: Last: 0.84+
US Aluminium Last: 0.88+Copper CFD: 335
The rally on Friday to 337 should be Wave iv, it may move higher to 338 – 344 but that’s about it, the price should work lower below 320 as Wave v of iii), the price should keep edging down in line with the Indices.
A move below 320 the pivot of Group1 would confirm the larger downside pictureForex
US Dollar CFD: 80.66
Moving into the March 2012 Futures contract.
The Euro is moving lower into a low of wave three to 130 – 128 therefor the Dollar will do the opposite around 80 and above, the trend for the Dollar is up, but we have to expect a larger correction across 80.00, the highs should start with MinorGroup1 83.00 while the correction unfolds.
EURUSD 1.3044
TradingLevels: There’s not much to say here, we know the rally is corrective and will now be short lived. Also when talking about the number 1.30 we should also put in 1.28 and 1.2772 this will become apparent in the next swing down
Elliott Wave: The Same - Wave (iv) is unfolding at 130 and potentially can move higher, but it is corrective and once completed move down for wave five (iv)
Day Trading Strategies: The wave four is still unfolding and can get uglier, meaning the corrective pattern can simply continue to expand, that said you can start to look for short trade set ups, but keeping the stops above the high, keeping the position size very small as part of a scaling in process, the risk is high on picking tops it can take three times to get it right, that is the risk of picking tops. Also line this rally on 130 with the Dow Futures and the Dollar finding support on 80AUDUSD 0.9980
TradingLevels: The retest of 1.00 is still under way and it’s from being a little patient here, if the price finds support on 1.00 then scalp long and if the 99.72 becomes the retested resistance then look for short trade set ups.
We also have to expect in the slightly bigger picture for the price to spend time swinging across 1.00 in the 103 – 98 range, the reason for this assumption is the larger triangle pattern back from September as it has lower highs and lower highs basically driving the price into 1.00 it will in time come out from 1.00 and that’s the trend we need.
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart) A move above 1.0030 creates a larger corrective and a different wave structure, we will talk about this if it occurs
Day Trading Strategy: Continue to scalp through the sublevels while around 1.00
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 11880
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The retest pattern to 12,000 is corrective, so new lows should be made under 11,800 also meaning the 11,500 MediumLevel comes back into view and of course this opens a larger door and of course confirms Intermediate Wave (3) is underway
Elliott Wave: The bias for Intermediate Wave (3) is looking stronger than one more new high and it is the Euro that leads the way for the Indices to follow as the fear factor grows the trend down
Day Trading Strategy: 11,872 SG2 Resistance short. The 11,772 could be a small stubborn support to navigate but a quick fall is expected from the structure and the failing retest of 12,000 however work the 11,800 as the resistance as price move quick from 8 to 5 that is 11,800 to 11,500.S&P500 CFD: 1215
TradingLevels: The Pivot 1220 within SG1 of 1200 has some small resistance which helps makes the price part of 1200 story and there the 1172 SG2 zone
Wave count: As you know we cannot confirm intermediate wave (3) down yet. We can’t also rule out the markets making one more new high and the Elliott Wave count on our site reflects this bullish possibility and it may be a week before we can have evidence in the structure. The short term trend is down so being short is the correct trade.
Day Trading Strategies: Stops at 1233 wait for 1200 to be the retested resistance before adding to shorts.FTSE 100 CFD: 5359
TradingLevels: 5372 resistance for a short trade to 5300 top of Minor Group1
Elliott Wave: The pattern is the same as the Sp500 and Dow etc. the bias is down
Day Trading Strategies: Stop above 5372 if the Midpoint 5350 becomes the retested resistance then add to the position, covering a percentage at 5330, the price moving down through SG1 5330|5320|5310 will be bumpy with the target and corrective patter at 5300 mTL3
SPI CFD 4135
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: There would be a long trend trade if the 4200 became support. This doesn’t mean you couldn’t go long on 4150 as support and adding if 4172 becomes support as the 4200 and the 4172 are the current resistances.
Elliott Wave: The bounce pattern over the last few days can be bearish corrective meaning more downside, or it can be the start of a move up, the structure is not developed enough, however much the same pattern is across many other markets and they seem to be corrective meaning more downside, so the bias for a trade here is short
Day Trading Strategies: Trade short, however if the Midpoint 4150 develops as support then the bias is for a larger corrective pattern. The 4150 has not been retested, so stops would need to be above 4172 Summary
The small Elliott wave four pull back that we were talking about on Friday across most markets is now more fully developed and suggesting the next swing lower which is just about underway, this is short term technical analysis, the bigger picture is another story, as you know we have the SP500 wave count on the site and this wave count reflects the currencies wave counts and all that is fine ,we will continue working that pattern. In the EarlyBird here we have been exploring the a larger bearish picture also, that is Elliott Wave Intermediate Wave (3) unfolding the bias for this is building and it is the Euro that is being the catalyst for this as the SP500 and Euro move together, we understand the US Dollar will spend time at 80 and the Euro 130 – 128 zone for some time and the Dow will find support at the MediumLevel 11,500, if along the way the 11,500 becomes the resistance then we can look at 10,000 and lower.
From a day trading point of view we are short, if the 11,500 or we can see evidence in the wave structure of a larger pattern developing then we will be trading larger trends short
Trading QuoteTo whatever degree you haven't accepted the risk, is the same degree to which you will avoid the risk. Trying to avoid something that is unavoidable will have disastrous effects on your ability to trade successfully.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:00am NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 112.0
11:00am NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 18.3
11:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -3.1%
11:01am GBP BOE Quarterly Bulletin
8:00pm EUR Current Account -1.9B 0.5B
8:00pm EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.97B -1.84B
12:30am CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 0.6% 0.3%
2:00am USD NAHB Housing Market Index 21 20
2:30am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Free Stuff on Technical Analysis is available on TradingLounge.com.au site!
Watch Day Trading video on youtube by tradinglounge: http://youtu.be/qh1YAQ-hkrA
Day TradingDow Jones 11,866 -0.02%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1598
Oil WTI CFD: 93.52
Copper CFD: 335
US Dollar CFD: 80.66
EURUSD 1.3044
AUDUSD 0.9980
Dow Jones CFD 11880
S&P500 CFD: 1215
FTSE 100 CFD: 5359
SPI CFD 4135
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- An early rally for U.S. stocks faded as investors continued fretting about Europe's debt crisis.The Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 12 points, or 0.1%, at 11856, after earlier rising nearly 100 points. Weighing on the downside was International Business Machines, which dropped 2.2%, and United Technologies, which fell 1.7%.The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index tacked on 3 points, or 0.3%, to 1219. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 14 points, or 0.6%, to 2555
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1598
Following on from the Elliott wave count from the last post, the Wave (iv) retest to 1600 is underway, yes it can pop up in SG1 of 1600 but should fade and fall lower into Wave (v) down at 1500 the MediumLevel (ML15) where it will have a larger bounce, once this bounce is over the price should work lower down through 1500. It is worth point out the significance of this 1500, it is the 50% between 1000 and 2000 and this means if the price finds 1500 as resistance then the balance is towards 1000 (TL1) and not 2000 (TL2) if this is the case then we can start working with the levels below 1500 and they are MinorLevel 1,300, 1,200, 1,100 which are Minor Group1. The normal flow down from one MajorLevel such as 2000 to 1000 is quite simple, let’s just start with 1500 the Medium level, the price would move down to this level and bounce (abc correction) this high is the first high, then the price would bounce off 1500 again creating the second high and so on until the price moved through 1500 and then retested it as resistance and supply levels would be lowering, eventually the weight of the market would be trapped under 1500 and then the same thing would happen at 1300 the top of Minor Group 1. Another point worth noting, is that the price travels quite fast down from 8 to 5 and 5 to 3 they are the best numbers to short betweenSliver The bounce off the first MinorLevel under 30.00 TL3 is 28.00 mTL3 and this is the normal level for the retest of supply i.e. 30.00 TL3 and this is the price to add to short positions, when the price moves through 28.00 also add to shorts and if it retests 28.00 short again, so split the trade up and work it around the 28.00, the much the same as you may have done above TL3. Under 28.00 is 27.72, 27.20 then 26.50 and the MediumLevel 25.00 ML25 you can cover at 25 or when Gold is at 15.00 because the wave count would be expecting a larger rally about there, but we will look at the ending of this structure into these levels and the expected rally later in the weekOil WTI CFD: 93.52
Oil basically follows Indices and Indices will soon make new lows.
The two main points here is that 95 the Midpoint is required as the resistance, this would mean the price would move below 90 towards 80 TL8.
The second point is any current rallies, firstly the price would stay under the 98 mTL8, yes this is high but it is possible on the first retest but probably unlikely, so the secondary level is 95 to 9650, the wave four of one lesser degree is around 96.00 so this would be a comfortable price point to consider, also if the price locks under 92.00 the pivot in Minor Group1 then the price is part of the 90.00 storey and any long term short stops can sit above 95.00 Once 90 is the retested resistance stops can be moved down to 93+ top of MG1.
Elliott Wave – Consider any retest of 95/96 as wave iv) and Wave v) down to 90 which would make Wave (iii) at 90, so a Wave (iv) bounce from 88 – 93 range at 90. This is still the early stages of a bear market…Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.31+
US Nickel: Last: 8.37+
US Zinc: Last: 0.84+
US Aluminium Last: 0.88+Copper CFD: 335
The rally on Friday to 337 should be Wave iv, it may move higher to 338 – 344 but that’s about it, the price should work lower below 320 as Wave v of iii), the price should keep edging down in line with the Indices.
A move below 320 the pivot of Group1 would confirm the larger downside pictureForex
US Dollar CFD: 80.66
Moving into the March 2012 Futures contract.
The Euro is moving lower into a low of wave three to 130 – 128 therefor the Dollar will do the opposite around 80 and above, the trend for the Dollar is up, but we have to expect a larger correction across 80.00, the highs should start with MinorGroup1 83.00 while the correction unfolds.
EURUSD 1.3044
TradingLevels: There’s not much to say here, we know the rally is corrective and will now be short lived. Also when talking about the number 1.30 we should also put in 1.28 and 1.2772 this will become apparent in the next swing down
Elliott Wave: The Same - Wave (iv) is unfolding at 130 and potentially can move higher, but it is corrective and once completed move down for wave five (iv)
Day Trading Strategies: The wave four is still unfolding and can get uglier, meaning the corrective pattern can simply continue to expand, that said you can start to look for short trade set ups, but keeping the stops above the high, keeping the position size very small as part of a scaling in process, the risk is high on picking tops it can take three times to get it right, that is the risk of picking tops. Also line this rally on 130 with the Dow Futures and the Dollar finding support on 80AUDUSD 0.9980
TradingLevels: The retest of 1.00 is still under way and it’s from being a little patient here, if the price finds support on 1.00 then scalp long and if the 99.72 becomes the retested resistance then look for short trade set ups.
We also have to expect in the slightly bigger picture for the price to spend time swinging across 1.00 in the 103 – 98 range, the reason for this assumption is the larger triangle pattern back from September as it has lower highs and lower highs basically driving the price into 1.00 it will in time come out from 1.00 and that’s the trend we need.
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart) A move above 1.0030 creates a larger corrective and a different wave structure, we will talk about this if it occurs
Day Trading Strategy: Continue to scalp through the sublevels while around 1.00
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 11880
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The retest pattern to 12,000 is corrective, so new lows should be made under 11,800 also meaning the 11,500 MediumLevel comes back into view and of course this opens a larger door and of course confirms Intermediate Wave (3) is underway
Elliott Wave: The bias for Intermediate Wave (3) is looking stronger than one more new high and it is the Euro that leads the way for the Indices to follow as the fear factor grows the trend down
Day Trading Strategy: 11,872 SG2 Resistance short. The 11,772 could be a small stubborn support to navigate but a quick fall is expected from the structure and the failing retest of 12,000 however work the 11,800 as the resistance as price move quick from 8 to 5 that is 11,800 to 11,500.S&P500 CFD: 1215
TradingLevels: The Pivot 1220 within SG1 of 1200 has some small resistance which helps makes the price part of 1200 story and there the 1172 SG2 zone
Wave count: As you know we cannot confirm intermediate wave (3) down yet. We can’t also rule out the markets making one more new high and the Elliott Wave count on our site reflects this bullish possibility and it may be a week before we can have evidence in the structure. The short term trend is down so being short is the correct trade.
Day Trading Strategies: Stops at 1233 wait for 1200 to be the retested resistance before adding to shorts.FTSE 100 CFD: 5359
TradingLevels: 5372 resistance for a short trade to 5300 top of Minor Group1
Elliott Wave: The pattern is the same as the Sp500 and Dow etc. the bias is down
Day Trading Strategies: Stop above 5372 if the Midpoint 5350 becomes the retested resistance then add to the position, covering a percentage at 5330, the price moving down through SG1 5330|5320|5310 will be bumpy with the target and corrective patter at 5300 mTL3
SPI CFD 4135
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: There would be a long trend trade if the 4200 became support. This doesn’t mean you couldn’t go long on 4150 as support and adding if 4172 becomes support as the 4200 and the 4172 are the current resistances.
Elliott Wave: The bounce pattern over the last few days can be bearish corrective meaning more downside, or it can be the start of a move up, the structure is not developed enough, however much the same pattern is across many other markets and they seem to be corrective meaning more downside, so the bias for a trade here is short
Day Trading Strategies: Trade short, however if the Midpoint 4150 develops as support then the bias is for a larger corrective pattern. The 4150 has not been retested, so stops would need to be above 4172 Summary
The small Elliott wave four pull back that we were talking about on Friday across most markets is now more fully developed and suggesting the next swing lower which is just about underway, this is short term technical analysis, the bigger picture is another story, as you know we have the SP500 wave count on the site and this wave count reflects the currencies wave counts and all that is fine ,we will continue working that pattern. In the EarlyBird here we have been exploring the a larger bearish picture also, that is Elliott Wave Intermediate Wave (3) unfolding the bias for this is building and it is the Euro that is being the catalyst for this as the SP500 and Euro move together, we understand the US Dollar will spend time at 80 and the Euro 130 – 128 zone for some time and the Dow will find support at the MediumLevel 11,500, if along the way the 11,500 becomes the resistance then we can look at 10,000 and lower.
From a day trading point of view we are short, if the 11,500 or we can see evidence in the wave structure of a larger pattern developing then we will be trading larger trends short
Trading QuoteTo whatever degree you haven't accepted the risk, is the same degree to which you will avoid the risk. Trying to avoid something that is unavoidable will have disastrous effects on your ability to trade successfully.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:00am NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 112.0
11:00am NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 18.3
11:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -3.1%
11:01am GBP BOE Quarterly Bulletin
8:00pm EUR Current Account -1.9B 0.5B
8:00pm EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.97B -1.84B
12:30am CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 0.6% 0.3%
2:00am USD NAHB Housing Market Index 21 20
2:30am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Free Stuff on Technical Analysis is available on TradingLounge.com.au site!
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