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News
International companies trading in New York ended lower Friday as investors anticipated credit downgrades of a number of euro-zone countries that were announced after the close
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1639
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The Elliott wave count up from 1520 to the current high can be counted in Elliott wave theory in three different ways, so we should treat our opinions lightly. The first aspect is while the price is above 1600 its supported and would only short it the 1600 was the resistance. now that that is out of the way we can focus on the price action at the MediumLevel 1650, we also understand that sublevel supports are in group1 SG1 1610|1620|1630 so the expected corrective behaviour at the 1650 would naturally find supports in SG1 as its doing now, there would also be a series of retests on 1650, after about three to five swings we would simply see the 1650 MediumLevel price as support or resistance and would trade from that. We should also take the base metals on board and we use copper for this and copper is trending up and while that is the case, gold is likely to stay not only above 1600 but 1620 and retest 1650
Elliott wave: There are two way you can count the 1520 move up, two in a corrective pattern and one in an positive impulse wave, so we should tread lightly using Elliott in this degree, we should only use it in the sublevel environment for the time being. As Gold is banging its head against resistance 1650 so is the Dow at 12500, we can see the Dow developing overlapping wave structures – weakness
At a guess I would expect the corrective patterns in Gold and US Indices to expand, so keep trading ranges within sublevels degree until the patterns for both of these markets become clear, you don’t would to keep guessing the direction while we are in a corrective pattern that we don’t understand with enough certainty, the time will come to trade, patience.
There is one point of weakness that you can watch and that is Oil as oil is likely to drag the US Indices down, if the retest of 100 TL1 fails and rolls over the US Indices will feel the pressure. There is of course a holiday in the US on Monday.
Sliver While the price is above SG2 2880|2872|2865 the market is supported and you know the price is unfolding across the Major TradingLevel TL3 | 30.00 and that we don’t trade until it’s finished.Oil WTI: 99.10
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Bias changes to bearish now that the price is under 100 TL1 and we are looking at a series of retests of TL1
98.00 (mTL8) is the first MinorLevel under 100 and is the first support, the next MinorLevel is 95 (mTL5 and also a Midpoint between the 100 and 90, the next important level of the next smaller degree is sublevel 96.50, use all of these as support and resistance for entries and stops. If and once the price is under 95 as resistance then the price is part of the 90 story and you need to understand the levels above and below 90.00 MediumLevel (ML9)
Elliott wave: The Elliott wave count is down for Oil, so the series of retests of TL1 is the key for shorts. If you can match the wave count with the retests it will help your entries and stops or you may prefer to use this to trade energy sector stocks, also use the levels and the volume to confirm the price behaviour Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.63
US Nickel: Last: 8.89-
US Zinc: Last: 0.88-
US Aluminium Last: 0.94-Copper CFD: 363
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: 350 as resistance and the base metals are bias bearish, this would also reflect in other markets previous metals, currencies and stock / materials, so it’s a simple way of managing risk and direction.
That said the trend up is still displaying strength, the next resistances are SG2 365|372|380 with the 72 being the important price point, support on this creates the next level 400 MediumLevel ML4.
Expect corrective price action at SG2 which in turn will show up in other markets i.e. ASX/ AUDUSD…
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.70
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: the ABC correction is completed and the move up is well underway, if you got from 81.00 SG1 to 82.00 well done.
Expect the normal tradinglevels Classic pattern to unfold across 81.00. That is, the reaction at 81, then searching for support SG2 or the Midpoint, then a push above 81.00, creating the first high above this level. Then a larger ABC Zigzag 5-3-5 correction across 81.00, then a move to 82.00 SG1
Forex EURUSD 1.2830
TradingLevels: The Euro and SP500 are out of whack so keep an eye on that as they we pull together again. The current move up should spend time at 128, if it does find support after three swings then the target would be 12872 SG2
Elliott wave: Euro is falling sharply, definitely forming an impulsive decline with prices now headed below 1.2660 and ideally into 1.2600 zone. At the moment it’s hard to apply the wave count on that sharp move, but we know that any small bounce will be corrective and short lived
Technical Analysis: Scalping - Short using 1.2772 as the retested resistance, add on the retest of 1.2665 both of these price points are SG2, cover part position at 1.2650 as the price should bounce, look to add again as the Midpoint 12650 experiences the retest, exit at 12630.
Forex AUDUSD 1.0323
TradingLevels: AUD is dragging its feet against copper to the upside, more in line with the SP500. But the AUD is slowly establishing support but it’s not there yet, if it does find support, scale in through SG1 10310|10320|10330
Elliott wave: Once retested support is established look for a long trade to 104
Trading Strategies : Scale in using SG1 the sublevels
Indices Resistance 12500 Dow / SP500 1300 IF they become support, then markets are positive, if supports are broken Dow 12272 / SP500 1272 then negative. Dow target 12,772 SG2 if support is found on 12,500
Dow Jones CFD 12,451
Technical Analysis US Holiday Monday
TradingLevels: The 12,300 and 12,272 are the supports and they are still is play, at this stage the sharp move down is part of a corrective pattern, a move through support 12,272 then we will start to gather evidence of the larger move down and a top being in play, it was our thoughts to have the high in place last week and that may be the case, but wave structure and pricing evidence is still required, the catalyst for pulling the price down has been the European rating cuts, however it’s the Oil being under 100 that is the weight and we are seeing divergence in that.
Elliott waveThe intraday pattern from the 10th to now appears to be an ABC corrective pattern, until proven otherwise expect a move higher through 12500
Trading Strategies : Intraday wait for a retest to check support into 12400 SG1
S&P500 CFD: 1293
TradingLevels: As long as the SG2 1265|1272|1280 remain the support the market is positive.
Elliott wave: The pattern below 1300 appears corrective so still expecting a move higher through 1300. That said there is growing weakness in the trend up and we are searching for the top and the beginnings of a larger move down
Trading Strategies : For Scalping you can work the degree down from the sublevels, that is the MicroLevels, as an example, the MicroLevels between 1280 and 1290 would Group1 1281|1282|1283 the Midpoint 1285 and Group2 1286.501287.20|1288
FTSE 100 CFD: 5641
TradingLevels: Now Subgroup2 (SG2) 5665|5672|5680 is the resistance
Elliott wave: Line the pattern up with the SP500
Trading Strategies : Only go long if 5672 is the support. When the price moves up to this level SG2 the price will react, so give it time to swing around for a while before thinking going long or short.
SPI CFD 4186
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: In the Minor degree the price should have completed its corrective pattern at 4200, the safest longs would be 4200 as support, but you have to wait for this move.
Elliott wave: larger corrective pattern across 4200 once completed which it can be now, should push up in line with the audusd
Day Trading: Work any trade from SG2 4165|4172|4180 the 4172 is the important price point. The current price is 41786 I would think the 4172 SG2 would be retested; I would simply wait and see if the 4172 becomes the support or the resistance, you can expect more corrective price action under the 4200. Keep an eye on copper and shanghai in the afternoon session as the lead will come from thereTechnical Analysis Summery
The Australian Dollar and the ASX200 are enjoying the lift in base metals and this looks set to continue this week.
The Shanghai has been forming a low and even though it should pull back down from the 2300 it should find support above 2200 and then push up lifting the whole Asian region, so many of our local stock should push higher, any stock sitting on a Major TradingLevel as support would be a good start for any long trades.US, the Dow is still under the 12,500 resistance but more importantly as support it’s above the 12,272 / 12,300, while its above this support we will call the pattern between 12500 and 12300 corrective with the view of pushing higher, if the 12500 develops as support then we can look at 12,800 and 13000, however there indications of weakness in the US and European markets in the general trend up, but as long as we know our supports we will work from that basis.
US weakness can come this week as 40 large companies put their earnings forward, so far many have been downgraded. The US has a holiday Monday
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Trading QuoteOne trade should never make or break your account.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD FPI m/m 0.2%
10:30am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m -0.1%
10:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m 5.7% -6.9%
10:50am JPY CGPI y/y 1.3% 1.7%
11:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -2.7%
11:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 0.0%
11:30am AUD Home Loans m/m 1.1% 0.7%
16th-17th NZD REINZ HPI m/m 1.1%
4:00pm JPY Household Confidence 38.9 38.1
6:00pm EUR German WPI m/m 0.3% 0.7%
7:15pm CHF PPI m/m -0.4% -0.8%
All Day USD Bank Holiday
12:30am CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 2.1% 3.3%
5:00am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Showing posts with label Day Trading System. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Day Trading System. Show all posts
Monday, 16 January 2012
Friday, 23 December 2011
Day Trading
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Day TradingDow Jones 11,866 -0.02%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1598
Oil WTI CFD: 93.52
Copper CFD: 335
US Dollar CFD: 80.66
EURUSD 1.3044
AUDUSD 0.9980
Dow Jones CFD 11880
S&P500 CFD: 1215
FTSE 100 CFD: 5359
SPI CFD 4135
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- An early rally for U.S. stocks faded as investors continued fretting about Europe's debt crisis.The Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 12 points, or 0.1%, at 11856, after earlier rising nearly 100 points. Weighing on the downside was International Business Machines, which dropped 2.2%, and United Technologies, which fell 1.7%.The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index tacked on 3 points, or 0.3%, to 1219. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 14 points, or 0.6%, to 2555
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1598
Following on from the Elliott wave count from the last post, the Wave (iv) retest to 1600 is underway, yes it can pop up in SG1 of 1600 but should fade and fall lower into Wave (v) down at 1500 the MediumLevel (ML15) where it will have a larger bounce, once this bounce is over the price should work lower down through 1500. It is worth point out the significance of this 1500, it is the 50% between 1000 and 2000 and this means if the price finds 1500 as resistance then the balance is towards 1000 (TL1) and not 2000 (TL2) if this is the case then we can start working with the levels below 1500 and they are MinorLevel 1,300, 1,200, 1,100 which are Minor Group1. The normal flow down from one MajorLevel such as 2000 to 1000 is quite simple, let’s just start with 1500 the Medium level, the price would move down to this level and bounce (abc correction) this high is the first high, then the price would bounce off 1500 again creating the second high and so on until the price moved through 1500 and then retested it as resistance and supply levels would be lowering, eventually the weight of the market would be trapped under 1500 and then the same thing would happen at 1300 the top of Minor Group 1. Another point worth noting, is that the price travels quite fast down from 8 to 5 and 5 to 3 they are the best numbers to short betweenSliver The bounce off the first MinorLevel under 30.00 TL3 is 28.00 mTL3 and this is the normal level for the retest of supply i.e. 30.00 TL3 and this is the price to add to short positions, when the price moves through 28.00 also add to shorts and if it retests 28.00 short again, so split the trade up and work it around the 28.00, the much the same as you may have done above TL3. Under 28.00 is 27.72, 27.20 then 26.50 and the MediumLevel 25.00 ML25 you can cover at 25 or when Gold is at 15.00 because the wave count would be expecting a larger rally about there, but we will look at the ending of this structure into these levels and the expected rally later in the weekOil WTI CFD: 93.52
Oil basically follows Indices and Indices will soon make new lows.
The two main points here is that 95 the Midpoint is required as the resistance, this would mean the price would move below 90 towards 80 TL8.
The second point is any current rallies, firstly the price would stay under the 98 mTL8, yes this is high but it is possible on the first retest but probably unlikely, so the secondary level is 95 to 9650, the wave four of one lesser degree is around 96.00 so this would be a comfortable price point to consider, also if the price locks under 92.00 the pivot in Minor Group1 then the price is part of the 90.00 storey and any long term short stops can sit above 95.00 Once 90 is the retested resistance stops can be moved down to 93+ top of MG1.
Elliott Wave – Consider any retest of 95/96 as wave iv) and Wave v) down to 90 which would make Wave (iii) at 90, so a Wave (iv) bounce from 88 – 93 range at 90. This is still the early stages of a bear market…Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.31+
US Nickel: Last: 8.37+
US Zinc: Last: 0.84+
US Aluminium Last: 0.88+Copper CFD: 335
The rally on Friday to 337 should be Wave iv, it may move higher to 338 – 344 but that’s about it, the price should work lower below 320 as Wave v of iii), the price should keep edging down in line with the Indices.
A move below 320 the pivot of Group1 would confirm the larger downside pictureForex
US Dollar CFD: 80.66
Moving into the March 2012 Futures contract.
The Euro is moving lower into a low of wave three to 130 – 128 therefor the Dollar will do the opposite around 80 and above, the trend for the Dollar is up, but we have to expect a larger correction across 80.00, the highs should start with MinorGroup1 83.00 while the correction unfolds.
EURUSD 1.3044
TradingLevels: There’s not much to say here, we know the rally is corrective and will now be short lived. Also when talking about the number 1.30 we should also put in 1.28 and 1.2772 this will become apparent in the next swing down
Elliott Wave: The Same - Wave (iv) is unfolding at 130 and potentially can move higher, but it is corrective and once completed move down for wave five (iv)
Day Trading Strategies: The wave four is still unfolding and can get uglier, meaning the corrective pattern can simply continue to expand, that said you can start to look for short trade set ups, but keeping the stops above the high, keeping the position size very small as part of a scaling in process, the risk is high on picking tops it can take three times to get it right, that is the risk of picking tops. Also line this rally on 130 with the Dow Futures and the Dollar finding support on 80AUDUSD 0.9980
TradingLevels: The retest of 1.00 is still under way and it’s from being a little patient here, if the price finds support on 1.00 then scalp long and if the 99.72 becomes the retested resistance then look for short trade set ups.
We also have to expect in the slightly bigger picture for the price to spend time swinging across 1.00 in the 103 – 98 range, the reason for this assumption is the larger triangle pattern back from September as it has lower highs and lower highs basically driving the price into 1.00 it will in time come out from 1.00 and that’s the trend we need.
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart) A move above 1.0030 creates a larger corrective and a different wave structure, we will talk about this if it occurs
Day Trading Strategy: Continue to scalp through the sublevels while around 1.00
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 11880
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The retest pattern to 12,000 is corrective, so new lows should be made under 11,800 also meaning the 11,500 MediumLevel comes back into view and of course this opens a larger door and of course confirms Intermediate Wave (3) is underway
Elliott Wave: The bias for Intermediate Wave (3) is looking stronger than one more new high and it is the Euro that leads the way for the Indices to follow as the fear factor grows the trend down
Day Trading Strategy: 11,872 SG2 Resistance short. The 11,772 could be a small stubborn support to navigate but a quick fall is expected from the structure and the failing retest of 12,000 however work the 11,800 as the resistance as price move quick from 8 to 5 that is 11,800 to 11,500.S&P500 CFD: 1215
TradingLevels: The Pivot 1220 within SG1 of 1200 has some small resistance which helps makes the price part of 1200 story and there the 1172 SG2 zone
Wave count: As you know we cannot confirm intermediate wave (3) down yet. We can’t also rule out the markets making one more new high and the Elliott Wave count on our site reflects this bullish possibility and it may be a week before we can have evidence in the structure. The short term trend is down so being short is the correct trade.
Day Trading Strategies: Stops at 1233 wait for 1200 to be the retested resistance before adding to shorts.FTSE 100 CFD: 5359
TradingLevels: 5372 resistance for a short trade to 5300 top of Minor Group1
Elliott Wave: The pattern is the same as the Sp500 and Dow etc. the bias is down
Day Trading Strategies: Stop above 5372 if the Midpoint 5350 becomes the retested resistance then add to the position, covering a percentage at 5330, the price moving down through SG1 5330|5320|5310 will be bumpy with the target and corrective patter at 5300 mTL3
SPI CFD 4135
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: There would be a long trend trade if the 4200 became support. This doesn’t mean you couldn’t go long on 4150 as support and adding if 4172 becomes support as the 4200 and the 4172 are the current resistances.
Elliott Wave: The bounce pattern over the last few days can be bearish corrective meaning more downside, or it can be the start of a move up, the structure is not developed enough, however much the same pattern is across many other markets and they seem to be corrective meaning more downside, so the bias for a trade here is short
Day Trading Strategies: Trade short, however if the Midpoint 4150 develops as support then the bias is for a larger corrective pattern. The 4150 has not been retested, so stops would need to be above 4172 Summary
The small Elliott wave four pull back that we were talking about on Friday across most markets is now more fully developed and suggesting the next swing lower which is just about underway, this is short term technical analysis, the bigger picture is another story, as you know we have the SP500 wave count on the site and this wave count reflects the currencies wave counts and all that is fine ,we will continue working that pattern. In the EarlyBird here we have been exploring the a larger bearish picture also, that is Elliott Wave Intermediate Wave (3) unfolding the bias for this is building and it is the Euro that is being the catalyst for this as the SP500 and Euro move together, we understand the US Dollar will spend time at 80 and the Euro 130 – 128 zone for some time and the Dow will find support at the MediumLevel 11,500, if along the way the 11,500 becomes the resistance then we can look at 10,000 and lower.
From a day trading point of view we are short, if the 11,500 or we can see evidence in the wave structure of a larger pattern developing then we will be trading larger trends short
Trading QuoteTo whatever degree you haven't accepted the risk, is the same degree to which you will avoid the risk. Trying to avoid something that is unavoidable will have disastrous effects on your ability to trade successfully.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:00am NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 112.0
11:00am NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 18.3
11:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -3.1%
11:01am GBP BOE Quarterly Bulletin
8:00pm EUR Current Account -1.9B 0.5B
8:00pm EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.97B -1.84B
12:30am CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 0.6% 0.3%
2:00am USD NAHB Housing Market Index 21 20
2:30am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Free Stuff on Technical Analysis is available on TradingLounge.com.au site!
Watch Day Trading video on youtube by tradinglounge: http://youtu.be/qh1YAQ-hkrA
Day TradingDow Jones 11,866 -0.02%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1598
Oil WTI CFD: 93.52
Copper CFD: 335
US Dollar CFD: 80.66
EURUSD 1.3044
AUDUSD 0.9980
Dow Jones CFD 11880
S&P500 CFD: 1215
FTSE 100 CFD: 5359
SPI CFD 4135
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- An early rally for U.S. stocks faded as investors continued fretting about Europe's debt crisis.The Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 12 points, or 0.1%, at 11856, after earlier rising nearly 100 points. Weighing on the downside was International Business Machines, which dropped 2.2%, and United Technologies, which fell 1.7%.The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index tacked on 3 points, or 0.3%, to 1219. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 14 points, or 0.6%, to 2555
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1598
Following on from the Elliott wave count from the last post, the Wave (iv) retest to 1600 is underway, yes it can pop up in SG1 of 1600 but should fade and fall lower into Wave (v) down at 1500 the MediumLevel (ML15) where it will have a larger bounce, once this bounce is over the price should work lower down through 1500. It is worth point out the significance of this 1500, it is the 50% between 1000 and 2000 and this means if the price finds 1500 as resistance then the balance is towards 1000 (TL1) and not 2000 (TL2) if this is the case then we can start working with the levels below 1500 and they are MinorLevel 1,300, 1,200, 1,100 which are Minor Group1. The normal flow down from one MajorLevel such as 2000 to 1000 is quite simple, let’s just start with 1500 the Medium level, the price would move down to this level and bounce (abc correction) this high is the first high, then the price would bounce off 1500 again creating the second high and so on until the price moved through 1500 and then retested it as resistance and supply levels would be lowering, eventually the weight of the market would be trapped under 1500 and then the same thing would happen at 1300 the top of Minor Group 1. Another point worth noting, is that the price travels quite fast down from 8 to 5 and 5 to 3 they are the best numbers to short betweenSliver The bounce off the first MinorLevel under 30.00 TL3 is 28.00 mTL3 and this is the normal level for the retest of supply i.e. 30.00 TL3 and this is the price to add to short positions, when the price moves through 28.00 also add to shorts and if it retests 28.00 short again, so split the trade up and work it around the 28.00, the much the same as you may have done above TL3. Under 28.00 is 27.72, 27.20 then 26.50 and the MediumLevel 25.00 ML25 you can cover at 25 or when Gold is at 15.00 because the wave count would be expecting a larger rally about there, but we will look at the ending of this structure into these levels and the expected rally later in the weekOil WTI CFD: 93.52
Oil basically follows Indices and Indices will soon make new lows.
The two main points here is that 95 the Midpoint is required as the resistance, this would mean the price would move below 90 towards 80 TL8.
The second point is any current rallies, firstly the price would stay under the 98 mTL8, yes this is high but it is possible on the first retest but probably unlikely, so the secondary level is 95 to 9650, the wave four of one lesser degree is around 96.00 so this would be a comfortable price point to consider, also if the price locks under 92.00 the pivot in Minor Group1 then the price is part of the 90.00 storey and any long term short stops can sit above 95.00 Once 90 is the retested resistance stops can be moved down to 93+ top of MG1.
Elliott Wave – Consider any retest of 95/96 as wave iv) and Wave v) down to 90 which would make Wave (iii) at 90, so a Wave (iv) bounce from 88 – 93 range at 90. This is still the early stages of a bear market…Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.31+
US Nickel: Last: 8.37+
US Zinc: Last: 0.84+
US Aluminium Last: 0.88+Copper CFD: 335
The rally on Friday to 337 should be Wave iv, it may move higher to 338 – 344 but that’s about it, the price should work lower below 320 as Wave v of iii), the price should keep edging down in line with the Indices.
A move below 320 the pivot of Group1 would confirm the larger downside pictureForex
US Dollar CFD: 80.66
Moving into the March 2012 Futures contract.
The Euro is moving lower into a low of wave three to 130 – 128 therefor the Dollar will do the opposite around 80 and above, the trend for the Dollar is up, but we have to expect a larger correction across 80.00, the highs should start with MinorGroup1 83.00 while the correction unfolds.
EURUSD 1.3044
TradingLevels: There’s not much to say here, we know the rally is corrective and will now be short lived. Also when talking about the number 1.30 we should also put in 1.28 and 1.2772 this will become apparent in the next swing down
Elliott Wave: The Same - Wave (iv) is unfolding at 130 and potentially can move higher, but it is corrective and once completed move down for wave five (iv)
Day Trading Strategies: The wave four is still unfolding and can get uglier, meaning the corrective pattern can simply continue to expand, that said you can start to look for short trade set ups, but keeping the stops above the high, keeping the position size very small as part of a scaling in process, the risk is high on picking tops it can take three times to get it right, that is the risk of picking tops. Also line this rally on 130 with the Dow Futures and the Dollar finding support on 80AUDUSD 0.9980
TradingLevels: The retest of 1.00 is still under way and it’s from being a little patient here, if the price finds support on 1.00 then scalp long and if the 99.72 becomes the retested resistance then look for short trade set ups.
We also have to expect in the slightly bigger picture for the price to spend time swinging across 1.00 in the 103 – 98 range, the reason for this assumption is the larger triangle pattern back from September as it has lower highs and lower highs basically driving the price into 1.00 it will in time come out from 1.00 and that’s the trend we need.
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart) A move above 1.0030 creates a larger corrective and a different wave structure, we will talk about this if it occurs
Day Trading Strategy: Continue to scalp through the sublevels while around 1.00
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 11880
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The retest pattern to 12,000 is corrective, so new lows should be made under 11,800 also meaning the 11,500 MediumLevel comes back into view and of course this opens a larger door and of course confirms Intermediate Wave (3) is underway
Elliott Wave: The bias for Intermediate Wave (3) is looking stronger than one more new high and it is the Euro that leads the way for the Indices to follow as the fear factor grows the trend down
Day Trading Strategy: 11,872 SG2 Resistance short. The 11,772 could be a small stubborn support to navigate but a quick fall is expected from the structure and the failing retest of 12,000 however work the 11,800 as the resistance as price move quick from 8 to 5 that is 11,800 to 11,500.S&P500 CFD: 1215
TradingLevels: The Pivot 1220 within SG1 of 1200 has some small resistance which helps makes the price part of 1200 story and there the 1172 SG2 zone
Wave count: As you know we cannot confirm intermediate wave (3) down yet. We can’t also rule out the markets making one more new high and the Elliott Wave count on our site reflects this bullish possibility and it may be a week before we can have evidence in the structure. The short term trend is down so being short is the correct trade.
Day Trading Strategies: Stops at 1233 wait for 1200 to be the retested resistance before adding to shorts.FTSE 100 CFD: 5359
TradingLevels: 5372 resistance for a short trade to 5300 top of Minor Group1
Elliott Wave: The pattern is the same as the Sp500 and Dow etc. the bias is down
Day Trading Strategies: Stop above 5372 if the Midpoint 5350 becomes the retested resistance then add to the position, covering a percentage at 5330, the price moving down through SG1 5330|5320|5310 will be bumpy with the target and corrective patter at 5300 mTL3
SPI CFD 4135
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: There would be a long trend trade if the 4200 became support. This doesn’t mean you couldn’t go long on 4150 as support and adding if 4172 becomes support as the 4200 and the 4172 are the current resistances.
Elliott Wave: The bounce pattern over the last few days can be bearish corrective meaning more downside, or it can be the start of a move up, the structure is not developed enough, however much the same pattern is across many other markets and they seem to be corrective meaning more downside, so the bias for a trade here is short
Day Trading Strategies: Trade short, however if the Midpoint 4150 develops as support then the bias is for a larger corrective pattern. The 4150 has not been retested, so stops would need to be above 4172 Summary
The small Elliott wave four pull back that we were talking about on Friday across most markets is now more fully developed and suggesting the next swing lower which is just about underway, this is short term technical analysis, the bigger picture is another story, as you know we have the SP500 wave count on the site and this wave count reflects the currencies wave counts and all that is fine ,we will continue working that pattern. In the EarlyBird here we have been exploring the a larger bearish picture also, that is Elliott Wave Intermediate Wave (3) unfolding the bias for this is building and it is the Euro that is being the catalyst for this as the SP500 and Euro move together, we understand the US Dollar will spend time at 80 and the Euro 130 – 128 zone for some time and the Dow will find support at the MediumLevel 11,500, if along the way the 11,500 becomes the resistance then we can look at 10,000 and lower.
From a day trading point of view we are short, if the 11,500 or we can see evidence in the wave structure of a larger pattern developing then we will be trading larger trends short
Trading QuoteTo whatever degree you haven't accepted the risk, is the same degree to which you will avoid the risk. Trying to avoid something that is unavoidable will have disastrous effects on your ability to trade successfully.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:00am NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 112.0
11:00am NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 18.3
11:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -3.1%
11:01am GBP BOE Quarterly Bulletin
8:00pm EUR Current Account -1.9B 0.5B
8:00pm EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.97B -1.84B
12:30am CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 0.6% 0.3%
2:00am USD NAHB Housing Market Index 21 20
2:30am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
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