To Watch Video on CFD Day Trading Visit Us on Youtube http://youtu.be/56G1NVcTRUM
Day Trading
Video: http://youtu.be/56G1NVcTRUM
Description:
Day Trading and Day Trading Strategies from the TradingLounge Education.
This Technical Analysis video is the basis for setting up our Mechanical Day Trading Methods called Robo, the Robo trades are for the AU, UK and USA , if you require Day Trades for these markets or further Trading Education in Technical Analysis such as Elliott Wave or TradingLevels then visit the TradingLounge for a Free Trial http://tradinglounge.com.au
Showing posts with label Day Trading Education. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Day Trading Education. Show all posts
Monday, 23 January 2012
Wednesday, 18 January 2012
Trading Education
To Watch Video on Technical Analysis Visit Us on Youtube http://youtu.be/aB337_YoZ-U
Description:
Trading Education From the TradingLounge including Technical Analysis, Trading Strategies, Day Trading, Elliott Wave, TradingLevels, Price Volume Action our Trading Education is Friendly and Affordable with 30 Years’ Experience with ASFL There is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
Trading Education
News
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. stocks gained Tuesday after strong economic data in the U.S., China and Germany fuelled optimism over the pace of global economic growth, setting up stock indexes for their highest close in nearly half a year.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1653
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Ok, now we wait for the price to unfold and find support on the MediumLevel 1650. The resistance as you can see is Subgroup2 SG2 1665|1672|1680
Elliott wave The pattern across above below and across 1650 will be a wave four then wave five up to 1672, wave four can get a little complicated, especially when wave two is simple. The alternation between wave structures and in this case corrective, simple then complex is a guide line rather than a rule, but if the wave three is the extended wave then wave four is normally complicated as the large amount of energy from wave three requires balancing and this is also a point for the bigger picture in gold meaning the all-time high in gold to the low on the 29/12/2011 if this is a wave four, then its too simple for a wave four so we should also consider a much larger wave four unfolding, not so much in price but time before pushing higher above 2000
Silver The 61.8% retracement level is 3200
Oil WTI: 100
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Any long trades off 100 require at least two retests of 100, this is important as there is a bearish Elliott count for this rally as a wave two rally. But above a Major level like this the bias will change from negative to positive and IF support is found that forms part of the set up for scaling in long
Elliott wave The 61.8% retracement level is the current high at 101 however another push higher is expected once the retest for support on 100 (TL1) plays out, this will be in line with metals and stock
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.71+
US Nickel: Last: 8.86+
US Zinc: Last: 0.90+
US Aluminium Last: 0.98+
Copper CFD: 367
Technical Analysis
Same - Copper is in an uptrend and should continue, sure it will corrected into and through SG2 365|372|380 and will most likely trade sideways, but the bias is positive and this means the AUSUSD ASX and Asia in general is positive Expect a smaller wave four to unfold from 372 to 365 or 360 the wave four of one lesser degree
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.30
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Now that the price is back down at 81 we have to expect a larger corrective pattern to unfold down towards the 80, but this is unclear to me, the US dollar can have sharp moves that are hard to track using Elliott, if the Euro develops support on 128 then the Dollar will be seeing a larger corrective pattern into 80
The Elliott pattern down from the high is in three waves abc but it can turn into five waves, the bounce off 81 being wave four, the wave four should be sideways and a new low eventually made under 81, if this is the case then a larger correction will unfold into 80 and the Euro will push higher above 128
Forex EURUSD 1.2730
TradingLevels: The 1.2720 is the main price point, use the sublevels SG1 Midpoint and SG2 while the price is reacting from the 128
Elliott wave: The move down in the dollar is currently three wave corrective, the same here with the Euro the move up to 128 is in three waves corrective, however it could turn into five waves. The current sell off from 128 is impulsive so expect a minimum of three swings abc
Day Trading : It about being on the right side of 1.2720 but the pressure is to the downside because of the reaction from 128 in an impulsive wave if this is the case then 12672 is the lower target
Forex AUDUSD 1.0380
TradingLevelsThe price is swinging across 104 its only in its second swing, early days yet before completion and developing support on 104 and anyway it can pull back further besides the current support SG2 10372 the supports are 10350 and 10330.
Elliott wave Nice long trade if you go the support off 103 and scaled in through SG1. The pattern now is correcting the trend up, the correction can be a wave four so it should be time consuming. The move down from the high appears impulsive so this is just the first of three swings the question is will after these three swings find support on 104 and if so scale in long through SG1 of 104
Day Trading : no real strategy while the price is correcting in three swings, best to scalp the sublevels while in the correction
Indices
Markets in Asia closed sharply higher in the last session after better than expected "China Q4 GDP" data that came out 8.9%. Nikkei was up 1.05%, HSI 3.24% and China even more than 4%. This of course is very positive for some currencies, such as Eur, Gbp, Cad, Aud which is one of the strongest at the moment. US dollar of course is trading lower, as commodity prices rallied, such as gold and oil, in-line with stocks.
Dow Jones CFD 12,520
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Now we are above the 12,500 and the price is working out the support at this level, once this is completed we can look higher to 12650 and the original target of 12772 12,800. In the meantime the support for testing is back at 12472 SG2 zone
Elliott wave An impulse wave higher from the 12300 has still more to unfold up, the corrective pattern above and eventually through and across 12500 is a wave four once completed the price should move higher
Day Trading : Allow a session for wave four to complete and then find support back above 12500 for a the next long trade
S&P500 CFD: 1298
TradingLevels: The 1300 is a MinorLevel (mTL3) it is also the top of Minor Group1 (+SG1 1330) and if support is found here then this opens the door for higher ground, there is technical resistance around the 1320 and the Elliott Count has a top here that requires consideration. When working with a level such as mTL3 1300 we also work with the levels on either side so in this case SG1 above and SG2 below, we can expect SG1 and SG2 to be the resistances and supports while the price is vibrating at 1300
Elliott wave Wave structure on the 15min cash market of the S&P500 also shows incomplete bullish pattern. Now in wave four of an impulse, so more upside in view
Day Trading : Expect corrective reaction patterns at 1300. Counting five waves up from the last low support 290. No strategy while at the early stages of 1300
FTSE 100 CFD: 5670
TradingLevelsI would expect the price to find support in SG2 5680|5672|5665 even though the support is at 5650 the Midpoint. If and when the price climbs back above 5700 as support trade long and scale in through SG1 of 5700
Elliott wave Once the wave four correction at 5700 is completed then wave five up. The 5720 (72) is a subtle resistance and the 5772 and 5800 are then more real resistance and target points
Day Trading : Trade long IF 5700 becomes support again and use SG1 to build the trade
SPI CFD 4200
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels When 420 develops are support trade long through SG1 building the trade
Elliott wave The wave count is much like the AUD and it has a bullish and bearish count, the support on 4200 is a step in the right direction however it’s the support on 4300 the top of Minor Group1 that is key to a truly bullish market
Day Trading : Allow the swings at 4200 to settle then when the 4200 becomes the support then trade long. Use SG1 to build the trade
Technical Analysis
The China Q4 GDP gave markets a boost up and in most cases through their resistances
in line with most of the wave counts.
Markets are now dancing on and across their resistance levels once the dance is done look for support and trade short term long, the correctional dance in most cases is a small wave four, so when the wave moves up and completes a larger corrective pattern will occur
The only conflicting wave counts is the AUDUSD and US Indices, the first point I must point out is that the trends are up, however the Elliott count for the US Indices is for a Major top looming at a very rough guess the 12650 to 12800 for the Dow but the AUDUSD has a more bullish case, so one of them is wrong as the AUDUSD and Dow/SP500 move together. Like I said the trend is up and there is no evidence of a move down in US Indices. Anyway we will continue to monitor this aspect.
Trading Education Quote
Trading's only real secret is... The best loser is the long-term winner - Phantom of the Pits
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
10:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -8.3%
11:30am AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 2.3% -0.7%
3:30pm JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m -2.4% -2.6%
8:00pm EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.94B -1.08B
8:30pm GBP Claimant Count Change 8.2K 3.0K
8:30pm GBP Unemployment Rate 8.3% 8.3%
8:30pm GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.0% 2.0%
9:00pm CHF ZEW Economic Expectations -72.0
12:30am USD PPI m/m 0.1% 0.3%
12:30am USD Core PPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
1:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 27.3B 4.8B
1:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.2% 77.8%
1:15am USD Industrial Production m/m 0.5% -0.2%
1:30am USD FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
2:00am USD NAHB Housing Market Index 22 21
2:30am CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
2:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 5.0M
3:15am CAD BOC Press Conference
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
Description:
Trading Education From the TradingLounge including Technical Analysis, Trading Strategies, Day Trading, Elliott Wave, TradingLevels, Price Volume Action our Trading Education is Friendly and Affordable with 30 Years’ Experience with ASFL There is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
Trading Education
News
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. stocks gained Tuesday after strong economic data in the U.S., China and Germany fuelled optimism over the pace of global economic growth, setting up stock indexes for their highest close in nearly half a year.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1653
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Ok, now we wait for the price to unfold and find support on the MediumLevel 1650. The resistance as you can see is Subgroup2 SG2 1665|1672|1680
Elliott wave The pattern across above below and across 1650 will be a wave four then wave five up to 1672, wave four can get a little complicated, especially when wave two is simple. The alternation between wave structures and in this case corrective, simple then complex is a guide line rather than a rule, but if the wave three is the extended wave then wave four is normally complicated as the large amount of energy from wave three requires balancing and this is also a point for the bigger picture in gold meaning the all-time high in gold to the low on the 29/12/2011 if this is a wave four, then its too simple for a wave four so we should also consider a much larger wave four unfolding, not so much in price but time before pushing higher above 2000
Silver The 61.8% retracement level is 3200
Oil WTI: 100
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Any long trades off 100 require at least two retests of 100, this is important as there is a bearish Elliott count for this rally as a wave two rally. But above a Major level like this the bias will change from negative to positive and IF support is found that forms part of the set up for scaling in long
Elliott wave The 61.8% retracement level is the current high at 101 however another push higher is expected once the retest for support on 100 (TL1) plays out, this will be in line with metals and stock
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.71+
US Nickel: Last: 8.86+
US Zinc: Last: 0.90+
US Aluminium Last: 0.98+
Copper CFD: 367
Technical Analysis
Same - Copper is in an uptrend and should continue, sure it will corrected into and through SG2 365|372|380 and will most likely trade sideways, but the bias is positive and this means the AUSUSD ASX and Asia in general is positive Expect a smaller wave four to unfold from 372 to 365 or 360 the wave four of one lesser degree
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.30
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Now that the price is back down at 81 we have to expect a larger corrective pattern to unfold down towards the 80, but this is unclear to me, the US dollar can have sharp moves that are hard to track using Elliott, if the Euro develops support on 128 then the Dollar will be seeing a larger corrective pattern into 80
The Elliott pattern down from the high is in three waves abc but it can turn into five waves, the bounce off 81 being wave four, the wave four should be sideways and a new low eventually made under 81, if this is the case then a larger correction will unfold into 80 and the Euro will push higher above 128
Forex EURUSD 1.2730
TradingLevels: The 1.2720 is the main price point, use the sublevels SG1 Midpoint and SG2 while the price is reacting from the 128
Elliott wave: The move down in the dollar is currently three wave corrective, the same here with the Euro the move up to 128 is in three waves corrective, however it could turn into five waves. The current sell off from 128 is impulsive so expect a minimum of three swings abc
Day Trading : It about being on the right side of 1.2720 but the pressure is to the downside because of the reaction from 128 in an impulsive wave if this is the case then 12672 is the lower target
Forex AUDUSD 1.0380
TradingLevelsThe price is swinging across 104 its only in its second swing, early days yet before completion and developing support on 104 and anyway it can pull back further besides the current support SG2 10372 the supports are 10350 and 10330.
Elliott wave Nice long trade if you go the support off 103 and scaled in through SG1. The pattern now is correcting the trend up, the correction can be a wave four so it should be time consuming. The move down from the high appears impulsive so this is just the first of three swings the question is will after these three swings find support on 104 and if so scale in long through SG1 of 104
Day Trading : no real strategy while the price is correcting in three swings, best to scalp the sublevels while in the correction
Indices
Markets in Asia closed sharply higher in the last session after better than expected "China Q4 GDP" data that came out 8.9%. Nikkei was up 1.05%, HSI 3.24% and China even more than 4%. This of course is very positive for some currencies, such as Eur, Gbp, Cad, Aud which is one of the strongest at the moment. US dollar of course is trading lower, as commodity prices rallied, such as gold and oil, in-line with stocks.
Dow Jones CFD 12,520
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Now we are above the 12,500 and the price is working out the support at this level, once this is completed we can look higher to 12650 and the original target of 12772 12,800. In the meantime the support for testing is back at 12472 SG2 zone
Elliott wave An impulse wave higher from the 12300 has still more to unfold up, the corrective pattern above and eventually through and across 12500 is a wave four once completed the price should move higher
Day Trading : Allow a session for wave four to complete and then find support back above 12500 for a the next long trade
S&P500 CFD: 1298
TradingLevels: The 1300 is a MinorLevel (mTL3) it is also the top of Minor Group1 (+SG1 1330) and if support is found here then this opens the door for higher ground, there is technical resistance around the 1320 and the Elliott Count has a top here that requires consideration. When working with a level such as mTL3 1300 we also work with the levels on either side so in this case SG1 above and SG2 below, we can expect SG1 and SG2 to be the resistances and supports while the price is vibrating at 1300
Elliott wave Wave structure on the 15min cash market of the S&P500 also shows incomplete bullish pattern. Now in wave four of an impulse, so more upside in view
Day Trading : Expect corrective reaction patterns at 1300. Counting five waves up from the last low support 290. No strategy while at the early stages of 1300
FTSE 100 CFD: 5670
TradingLevelsI would expect the price to find support in SG2 5680|5672|5665 even though the support is at 5650 the Midpoint. If and when the price climbs back above 5700 as support trade long and scale in through SG1 of 5700
Elliott wave Once the wave four correction at 5700 is completed then wave five up. The 5720 (72) is a subtle resistance and the 5772 and 5800 are then more real resistance and target points
Day Trading : Trade long IF 5700 becomes support again and use SG1 to build the trade
SPI CFD 4200
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels When 420 develops are support trade long through SG1 building the trade
Elliott wave The wave count is much like the AUD and it has a bullish and bearish count, the support on 4200 is a step in the right direction however it’s the support on 4300 the top of Minor Group1 that is key to a truly bullish market
Day Trading : Allow the swings at 4200 to settle then when the 4200 becomes the support then trade long. Use SG1 to build the trade
Technical Analysis
The China Q4 GDP gave markets a boost up and in most cases through their resistances
in line with most of the wave counts.
Markets are now dancing on and across their resistance levels once the dance is done look for support and trade short term long, the correctional dance in most cases is a small wave four, so when the wave moves up and completes a larger corrective pattern will occur
The only conflicting wave counts is the AUDUSD and US Indices, the first point I must point out is that the trends are up, however the Elliott count for the US Indices is for a Major top looming at a very rough guess the 12650 to 12800 for the Dow but the AUDUSD has a more bullish case, so one of them is wrong as the AUDUSD and Dow/SP500 move together. Like I said the trend is up and there is no evidence of a move down in US Indices. Anyway we will continue to monitor this aspect.
Trading Education Quote
Trading's only real secret is... The best loser is the long-term winner - Phantom of the Pits
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
10:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -8.3%
11:30am AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 2.3% -0.7%
3:30pm JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m -2.4% -2.6%
8:00pm EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.94B -1.08B
8:30pm GBP Claimant Count Change 8.2K 3.0K
8:30pm GBP Unemployment Rate 8.3% 8.3%
8:30pm GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.0% 2.0%
9:00pm CHF ZEW Economic Expectations -72.0
12:30am USD PPI m/m 0.1% 0.3%
12:30am USD Core PPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
1:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 27.3B 4.8B
1:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.2% 77.8%
1:15am USD Industrial Production m/m 0.5% -0.2%
1:30am USD FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
2:00am USD NAHB Housing Market Index 22 21
2:30am CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
2:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 5.0M
3:15am CAD BOC Press Conference
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
Monday, 16 January 2012
Day Trading
To Watch Video on Day Trading Visit Us on Youtube http://youtu.be/GdlJneH-tig
Description:
Day Trading and Day Trading Strategies from the TradingLounge Education.
This Technical Analysis video is the basis for setting up our Mechanical Day Trading Methods called Robo, the Robo trades are for the AU, UK and USA , if you require Day Trades for these markets or further Trading Education in Technical Analysis such as Elliott Wave or TradingLevels then visit the TradingLounge for a Free Trial http://tradinglounge.com.au
News
International companies trading in New York ended lower Friday as investors anticipated credit downgrades of a number of euro-zone countries that were announced after the close
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1639
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The Elliott wave count up from 1520 to the current high can be counted in Elliott wave theory in three different ways, so we should treat our opinions lightly. The first aspect is while the price is above 1600 its supported and would only short it the 1600 was the resistance. now that that is out of the way we can focus on the price action at the MediumLevel 1650, we also understand that sublevel supports are in group1 SG1 1610|1620|1630 so the expected corrective behaviour at the 1650 would naturally find supports in SG1 as its doing now, there would also be a series of retests on 1650, after about three to five swings we would simply see the 1650 MediumLevel price as support or resistance and would trade from that. We should also take the base metals on board and we use copper for this and copper is trending up and while that is the case, gold is likely to stay not only above 1600 but 1620 and retest 1650
Elliott wave: There are two way you can count the 1520 move up, two in a corrective pattern and one in an positive impulse wave, so we should tread lightly using Elliott in this degree, we should only use it in the sublevel environment for the time being. As Gold is banging its head against resistance 1650 so is the Dow at 12500, we can see the Dow developing overlapping wave structures – weakness
At a guess I would expect the corrective patterns in Gold and US Indices to expand, so keep trading ranges within sublevels degree until the patterns for both of these markets become clear, you don’t would to keep guessing the direction while we are in a corrective pattern that we don’t understand with enough certainty, the time will come to trade, patience.
There is one point of weakness that you can watch and that is Oil as oil is likely to drag the US Indices down, if the retest of 100 TL1 fails and rolls over the US Indices will feel the pressure. There is of course a holiday in the US on Monday.
Sliver While the price is above SG2 2880|2872|2865 the market is supported and you know the price is unfolding across the Major TradingLevel TL3 | 30.00 and that we don’t trade until it’s finished.Oil WTI: 99.10
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Bias changes to bearish now that the price is under 100 TL1 and we are looking at a series of retests of TL1
98.00 (mTL8) is the first MinorLevel under 100 and is the first support, the next MinorLevel is 95 (mTL5 and also a Midpoint between the 100 and 90, the next important level of the next smaller degree is sublevel 96.50, use all of these as support and resistance for entries and stops. If and once the price is under 95 as resistance then the price is part of the 90 story and you need to understand the levels above and below 90.00 MediumLevel (ML9)
Elliott wave: The Elliott wave count is down for Oil, so the series of retests of TL1 is the key for shorts. If you can match the wave count with the retests it will help your entries and stops or you may prefer to use this to trade energy sector stocks, also use the levels and the volume to confirm the price behaviour Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.63
US Nickel: Last: 8.89-
US Zinc: Last: 0.88-
US Aluminium Last: 0.94-Copper CFD: 363
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: 350 as resistance and the base metals are bias bearish, this would also reflect in other markets previous metals, currencies and stock / materials, so it’s a simple way of managing risk and direction.
That said the trend up is still displaying strength, the next resistances are SG2 365|372|380 with the 72 being the important price point, support on this creates the next level 400 MediumLevel ML4.
Expect corrective price action at SG2 which in turn will show up in other markets i.e. ASX/ AUDUSD…
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.70
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: the ABC correction is completed and the move up is well underway, if you got from 81.00 SG1 to 82.00 well done.
Expect the normal tradinglevels Classic pattern to unfold across 81.00. That is, the reaction at 81, then searching for support SG2 or the Midpoint, then a push above 81.00, creating the first high above this level. Then a larger ABC Zigzag 5-3-5 correction across 81.00, then a move to 82.00 SG1
Forex EURUSD 1.2830
TradingLevels: The Euro and SP500 are out of whack so keep an eye on that as they we pull together again. The current move up should spend time at 128, if it does find support after three swings then the target would be 12872 SG2
Elliott wave: Euro is falling sharply, definitely forming an impulsive decline with prices now headed below 1.2660 and ideally into 1.2600 zone. At the moment it’s hard to apply the wave count on that sharp move, but we know that any small bounce will be corrective and short lived
Technical Analysis: Scalping - Short using 1.2772 as the retested resistance, add on the retest of 1.2665 both of these price points are SG2, cover part position at 1.2650 as the price should bounce, look to add again as the Midpoint 12650 experiences the retest, exit at 12630.
Forex AUDUSD 1.0323
TradingLevels: AUD is dragging its feet against copper to the upside, more in line with the SP500. But the AUD is slowly establishing support but it’s not there yet, if it does find support, scale in through SG1 10310|10320|10330
Elliott wave: Once retested support is established look for a long trade to 104
Trading Strategies : Scale in using SG1 the sublevels
Indices Resistance 12500 Dow / SP500 1300 IF they become support, then markets are positive, if supports are broken Dow 12272 / SP500 1272 then negative. Dow target 12,772 SG2 if support is found on 12,500
Dow Jones CFD 12,451
Technical Analysis US Holiday Monday
TradingLevels: The 12,300 and 12,272 are the supports and they are still is play, at this stage the sharp move down is part of a corrective pattern, a move through support 12,272 then we will start to gather evidence of the larger move down and a top being in play, it was our thoughts to have the high in place last week and that may be the case, but wave structure and pricing evidence is still required, the catalyst for pulling the price down has been the European rating cuts, however it’s the Oil being under 100 that is the weight and we are seeing divergence in that.
Elliott waveThe intraday pattern from the 10th to now appears to be an ABC corrective pattern, until proven otherwise expect a move higher through 12500
Trading Strategies : Intraday wait for a retest to check support into 12400 SG1
S&P500 CFD: 1293
TradingLevels: As long as the SG2 1265|1272|1280 remain the support the market is positive.
Elliott wave: The pattern below 1300 appears corrective so still expecting a move higher through 1300. That said there is growing weakness in the trend up and we are searching for the top and the beginnings of a larger move down
Trading Strategies : For Scalping you can work the degree down from the sublevels, that is the MicroLevels, as an example, the MicroLevels between 1280 and 1290 would Group1 1281|1282|1283 the Midpoint 1285 and Group2 1286.501287.20|1288
FTSE 100 CFD: 5641
TradingLevels: Now Subgroup2 (SG2) 5665|5672|5680 is the resistance
Elliott wave: Line the pattern up with the SP500
Trading Strategies : Only go long if 5672 is the support. When the price moves up to this level SG2 the price will react, so give it time to swing around for a while before thinking going long or short.
SPI CFD 4186
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: In the Minor degree the price should have completed its corrective pattern at 4200, the safest longs would be 4200 as support, but you have to wait for this move.
Elliott wave: larger corrective pattern across 4200 once completed which it can be now, should push up in line with the audusd
Day Trading: Work any trade from SG2 4165|4172|4180 the 4172 is the important price point. The current price is 41786 I would think the 4172 SG2 would be retested; I would simply wait and see if the 4172 becomes the support or the resistance, you can expect more corrective price action under the 4200. Keep an eye on copper and shanghai in the afternoon session as the lead will come from thereTechnical Analysis Summery
The Australian Dollar and the ASX200 are enjoying the lift in base metals and this looks set to continue this week.
The Shanghai has been forming a low and even though it should pull back down from the 2300 it should find support above 2200 and then push up lifting the whole Asian region, so many of our local stock should push higher, any stock sitting on a Major TradingLevel as support would be a good start for any long trades.US, the Dow is still under the 12,500 resistance but more importantly as support it’s above the 12,272 / 12,300, while its above this support we will call the pattern between 12500 and 12300 corrective with the view of pushing higher, if the 12500 develops as support then we can look at 12,800 and 13000, however there indications of weakness in the US and European markets in the general trend up, but as long as we know our supports we will work from that basis.
US weakness can come this week as 40 large companies put their earnings forward, so far many have been downgraded. The US has a holiday Monday
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Trading QuoteOne trade should never make or break your account.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD FPI m/m 0.2%
10:30am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m -0.1%
10:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m 5.7% -6.9%
10:50am JPY CGPI y/y 1.3% 1.7%
11:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -2.7%
11:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 0.0%
11:30am AUD Home Loans m/m 1.1% 0.7%
16th-17th NZD REINZ HPI m/m 1.1%
4:00pm JPY Household Confidence 38.9 38.1
6:00pm EUR German WPI m/m 0.3% 0.7%
7:15pm CHF PPI m/m -0.4% -0.8%
All Day USD Bank Holiday
12:30am CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 2.1% 3.3%
5:00am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Description:
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This Technical Analysis video is the basis for setting up our Mechanical Day Trading Methods called Robo, the Robo trades are for the AU, UK and USA , if you require Day Trades for these markets or further Trading Education in Technical Analysis such as Elliott Wave or TradingLevels then visit the TradingLounge for a Free Trial http://tradinglounge.com.au
News
International companies trading in New York ended lower Friday as investors anticipated credit downgrades of a number of euro-zone countries that were announced after the close
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1639
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The Elliott wave count up from 1520 to the current high can be counted in Elliott wave theory in three different ways, so we should treat our opinions lightly. The first aspect is while the price is above 1600 its supported and would only short it the 1600 was the resistance. now that that is out of the way we can focus on the price action at the MediumLevel 1650, we also understand that sublevel supports are in group1 SG1 1610|1620|1630 so the expected corrective behaviour at the 1650 would naturally find supports in SG1 as its doing now, there would also be a series of retests on 1650, after about three to five swings we would simply see the 1650 MediumLevel price as support or resistance and would trade from that. We should also take the base metals on board and we use copper for this and copper is trending up and while that is the case, gold is likely to stay not only above 1600 but 1620 and retest 1650
Elliott wave: There are two way you can count the 1520 move up, two in a corrective pattern and one in an positive impulse wave, so we should tread lightly using Elliott in this degree, we should only use it in the sublevel environment for the time being. As Gold is banging its head against resistance 1650 so is the Dow at 12500, we can see the Dow developing overlapping wave structures – weakness
At a guess I would expect the corrective patterns in Gold and US Indices to expand, so keep trading ranges within sublevels degree until the patterns for both of these markets become clear, you don’t would to keep guessing the direction while we are in a corrective pattern that we don’t understand with enough certainty, the time will come to trade, patience.
There is one point of weakness that you can watch and that is Oil as oil is likely to drag the US Indices down, if the retest of 100 TL1 fails and rolls over the US Indices will feel the pressure. There is of course a holiday in the US on Monday.
Sliver While the price is above SG2 2880|2872|2865 the market is supported and you know the price is unfolding across the Major TradingLevel TL3 | 30.00 and that we don’t trade until it’s finished.Oil WTI: 99.10
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Bias changes to bearish now that the price is under 100 TL1 and we are looking at a series of retests of TL1
98.00 (mTL8) is the first MinorLevel under 100 and is the first support, the next MinorLevel is 95 (mTL5 and also a Midpoint between the 100 and 90, the next important level of the next smaller degree is sublevel 96.50, use all of these as support and resistance for entries and stops. If and once the price is under 95 as resistance then the price is part of the 90 story and you need to understand the levels above and below 90.00 MediumLevel (ML9)
Elliott wave: The Elliott wave count is down for Oil, so the series of retests of TL1 is the key for shorts. If you can match the wave count with the retests it will help your entries and stops or you may prefer to use this to trade energy sector stocks, also use the levels and the volume to confirm the price behaviour Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.63
US Nickel: Last: 8.89-
US Zinc: Last: 0.88-
US Aluminium Last: 0.94-Copper CFD: 363
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: 350 as resistance and the base metals are bias bearish, this would also reflect in other markets previous metals, currencies and stock / materials, so it’s a simple way of managing risk and direction.
That said the trend up is still displaying strength, the next resistances are SG2 365|372|380 with the 72 being the important price point, support on this creates the next level 400 MediumLevel ML4.
Expect corrective price action at SG2 which in turn will show up in other markets i.e. ASX/ AUDUSD…
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.70
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: the ABC correction is completed and the move up is well underway, if you got from 81.00 SG1 to 82.00 well done.
Expect the normal tradinglevels Classic pattern to unfold across 81.00. That is, the reaction at 81, then searching for support SG2 or the Midpoint, then a push above 81.00, creating the first high above this level. Then a larger ABC Zigzag 5-3-5 correction across 81.00, then a move to 82.00 SG1
Forex EURUSD 1.2830
TradingLevels: The Euro and SP500 are out of whack so keep an eye on that as they we pull together again. The current move up should spend time at 128, if it does find support after three swings then the target would be 12872 SG2
Elliott wave: Euro is falling sharply, definitely forming an impulsive decline with prices now headed below 1.2660 and ideally into 1.2600 zone. At the moment it’s hard to apply the wave count on that sharp move, but we know that any small bounce will be corrective and short lived
Technical Analysis: Scalping - Short using 1.2772 as the retested resistance, add on the retest of 1.2665 both of these price points are SG2, cover part position at 1.2650 as the price should bounce, look to add again as the Midpoint 12650 experiences the retest, exit at 12630.
Forex AUDUSD 1.0323
TradingLevels: AUD is dragging its feet against copper to the upside, more in line with the SP500. But the AUD is slowly establishing support but it’s not there yet, if it does find support, scale in through SG1 10310|10320|10330
Elliott wave: Once retested support is established look for a long trade to 104
Trading Strategies : Scale in using SG1 the sublevels
Indices Resistance 12500 Dow / SP500 1300 IF they become support, then markets are positive, if supports are broken Dow 12272 / SP500 1272 then negative. Dow target 12,772 SG2 if support is found on 12,500
Dow Jones CFD 12,451
Technical Analysis US Holiday Monday
TradingLevels: The 12,300 and 12,272 are the supports and they are still is play, at this stage the sharp move down is part of a corrective pattern, a move through support 12,272 then we will start to gather evidence of the larger move down and a top being in play, it was our thoughts to have the high in place last week and that may be the case, but wave structure and pricing evidence is still required, the catalyst for pulling the price down has been the European rating cuts, however it’s the Oil being under 100 that is the weight and we are seeing divergence in that.
Elliott waveThe intraday pattern from the 10th to now appears to be an ABC corrective pattern, until proven otherwise expect a move higher through 12500
Trading Strategies : Intraday wait for a retest to check support into 12400 SG1
S&P500 CFD: 1293
TradingLevels: As long as the SG2 1265|1272|1280 remain the support the market is positive.
Elliott wave: The pattern below 1300 appears corrective so still expecting a move higher through 1300. That said there is growing weakness in the trend up and we are searching for the top and the beginnings of a larger move down
Trading Strategies : For Scalping you can work the degree down from the sublevels, that is the MicroLevels, as an example, the MicroLevels between 1280 and 1290 would Group1 1281|1282|1283 the Midpoint 1285 and Group2 1286.501287.20|1288
FTSE 100 CFD: 5641
TradingLevels: Now Subgroup2 (SG2) 5665|5672|5680 is the resistance
Elliott wave: Line the pattern up with the SP500
Trading Strategies : Only go long if 5672 is the support. When the price moves up to this level SG2 the price will react, so give it time to swing around for a while before thinking going long or short.
SPI CFD 4186
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: In the Minor degree the price should have completed its corrective pattern at 4200, the safest longs would be 4200 as support, but you have to wait for this move.
Elliott wave: larger corrective pattern across 4200 once completed which it can be now, should push up in line with the audusd
Day Trading: Work any trade from SG2 4165|4172|4180 the 4172 is the important price point. The current price is 41786 I would think the 4172 SG2 would be retested; I would simply wait and see if the 4172 becomes the support or the resistance, you can expect more corrective price action under the 4200. Keep an eye on copper and shanghai in the afternoon session as the lead will come from thereTechnical Analysis Summery
The Australian Dollar and the ASX200 are enjoying the lift in base metals and this looks set to continue this week.
The Shanghai has been forming a low and even though it should pull back down from the 2300 it should find support above 2200 and then push up lifting the whole Asian region, so many of our local stock should push higher, any stock sitting on a Major TradingLevel as support would be a good start for any long trades.US, the Dow is still under the 12,500 resistance but more importantly as support it’s above the 12,272 / 12,300, while its above this support we will call the pattern between 12500 and 12300 corrective with the view of pushing higher, if the 12500 develops as support then we can look at 12,800 and 13000, however there indications of weakness in the US and European markets in the general trend up, but as long as we know our supports we will work from that basis.
US weakness can come this week as 40 large companies put their earnings forward, so far many have been downgraded. The US has a holiday Monday
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Trading QuoteOne trade should never make or break your account.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD FPI m/m 0.2%
10:30am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m -0.1%
10:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m 5.7% -6.9%
10:50am JPY CGPI y/y 1.3% 1.7%
11:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -2.7%
11:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 0.0%
11:30am AUD Home Loans m/m 1.1% 0.7%
16th-17th NZD REINZ HPI m/m 1.1%
4:00pm JPY Household Confidence 38.9 38.1
6:00pm EUR German WPI m/m 0.3% 0.7%
7:15pm CHF PPI m/m -0.4% -0.8%
All Day USD Bank Holiday
12:30am CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 2.1% 3.3%
5:00am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Thursday, 12 January 2012
Trading Strategies
To Watch youtube Video Click on the link: http://youtu.be/oezBiWm7Q6I
Description:
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Trading Strategies
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1642
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: The 1650 MediumLevel is a good resistance and the Subgroup1 (SG1{1610|1620|1630}) as support, this support is support while the SG1 Pivot 1620 holds.
In terms of trading we would not go long while the price is under 1650 we would require this as support, we can also expect corrective price action at 1650. There is an Elliott wave count that finishes here and that’s fine however evidence is required of impulse waves down, if that becomes the case then scaling in under 1620 as resistance and then adding under 1600 would be sensible. If the 1650 does find support, then we can trade to 1700 which is the 61.8% retracement of the previous impulse wave down from 1800, anyway in the meantime we should just observe the battle between 1650 and SG1
Elliott Wave: The retest of 1650 is underway and the wave count up is in three waves but can also be counted in five, standing back for a moment and looking at the possibilities, this rally can also be the first leg of a larger abc rally to 1700 and I will point out why this is so in the video as it relates to the larger pattern down from 1800 to 1500+.
If this current retest fails we need to wait fro the pattern set up and that is, firstly waiting for the reaction at 1650 then finding support on 1630 or 1620 then retesting close to the last high /1650 etc and then rolling over down taking our the last low of support, this will prove the sellers have overwhelmed the buyers, we should also see US Indices do the same and the US Dollar push higher, it would also be good to see base metals do the same, copper.
Sliver at resistance 30.00 MajorLevel, if the price takes out 2956 add small short with stop above 30 and IF the market moves down look to add under 2900, 2872…
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Oil WTI: 102
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: Oil is still trapped in Group1 {101|102|103} above 100 TL1 as support so its positive, but in the next two degrees lower its negative under 103, if it can develop support on 102 the SG1 pivot then that is a plus but at the end of the day its finding support on top of SG1 103 that is the key for a long trade. Oil can move with stock, so the Dow also finding support on12,500 (mTL5) is also important for trading long, not essential but helpful, you can also look to the base metals and as we use copper the 350 as a solid support.
All of this helps with being long on equities with the Robo trading strategies.
Earlier in the week we were looking at Shanghai as it has moved down a lot more than other markets and could see it was oversold and the Elliott wave count was looking for a low and that low may be in now, it certainly has made a sign but would need confirmation in the structure, but while that current low is in place so is support for Asia and commodities.
Elliott Wave: expect further strength on crude towards and above 103.70. Well, in the two sessions prices made a pull-back for almost 61.8%. And so far pull-back appears corrective which fits very nicely into the bullish incomplete structure.
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.52+
US Nickel: Last: 8.72-
US Zinc: Last: 0.86+
US Aluminium Last: 0.96+
Copper CFD: 353
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: The next step is finding the Midpoint 350 as support or resistance, we can see the Asian markets pushing up but more importantly we can see support now coming in for Shanghai, all eye on this support as this is the driver, the negative in the market is the US Indices running out of stream, there are indicators also confirming this, but we would need evidence in the wave structure to call a top in and that would be an impulse (five waves) to the down side, I was thinking of a top being in place this week for the US but its not there yet. We can use the 350 as support or resistance for being long or short in the material sectors in the US UK AU markets, the other guide stick is US BHP being above or below 72 for being long or short
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.58
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The move up in the last session up from 81.00 is likely a wave b which will be followed be wave c back down to 81.00 and then push higher, if wrong and the price does move higher then support on 81.72 would be required. This is also reflected in the EURUSD in its wave four, its move down can also be a Wave b or the Wave 5. So use the levels in part to create a strong trade set up and trade shorter degrees of structure while in this 5th or b wave
Forex EURUSD 1.27
TradingLevels: The 1.2720 is the line in the sand as support or resistance for being long or short, as say this to simplify the situation as the Elliott count can have the move down from 128 as wave five or wave b,
Elliott Wave: If the move down from 128 is wave b then expect wave c up as a retest of 128, if the move down is wave five than a new low would be made.
Trading Strategies: The two important numbers at the lower end are 12720 and 12650
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Forex AUDUSD 1.03
TradingLevels: The move up last night from 10272 to 103 is on diminishing volume, so a solid support on 103 would be required for a safer trade up to make new highs above 10350
Elliott Wave: As an alternative count, the pattern on 103 over the last few days can be a wave four, if correct then a move into new highs to 10372
Trading Strategies: Long of 103 as support, building the trade through group1 {10310|10320|10330} the 10320 is helpful but the top of group1 10330 as support is more important to the bigger picture
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Indices
A few side points to mention, the US Earning season have started and the Shanghai has found a support on its low, will it hold is another matter, we will monitor the volume in the rally.
Dow Jones CFD 12,437
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 12500 is the line in the sand here, as support or resistance, however this will take time to develop. There are indicators and sentiment indicators creating over bought and divergences and an Elliott count for a high around here, but either way lets just let the 12500 play out as support or resistance, we have plenty of time to wait for a set up here long or short as a long would require a series of swings before support and resistance would require a few retests. There will be corrective price action here at 12500 and it is a target price point for us, but let’s just wait and see what develops before making a decision
Elliott Wave: As you know we are looking for a top here, but we simply need to time to see
Trading Strategies: Wait for support or resistance, resistance and retests would be quicker than support if is was going to go that way, on the short side you would be looking for the second retest of 12500 to fail and take out the last low.
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S&P500 CFD: 1290
TradingLevels: The 1,300 is the resistance so expect a reaction there.
Elliott Wave: Same -The structure up is still going so expect he price to find a top this week at or above 1300. Count the impulse wave (5 waves) from the 1265 (SG2) up, you can see it still had further to go
Trading Strategies: Day trading, support on 1290 creates the long but exit before 1300
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FTSE 100 CFD: 5690
TradingLevels: while the 5650 is support the pattern up is supported, 5650 as resistance creates short set ups
Elliott Wave: Same - Targets 5772 - 5800
Trading Strategies: You could work SG2 for a trade SG2 5665|5672|5680 expect the price to continue to swing across this level but wait for support or resistance here, with 5672 being key.
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SPI CFD 4189
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 4200 mTL2 is the pivot within MinorGroup1 this is important as it’s the balance line in Group1.
Elliott Wave: We were looking for five wave up from 4100 to 4200, they are now in place, so expect a corrective pattern at and across 4200, it can also fail here.
Trading Strategies: Expect the tradinglevels Classic pattern across 4200. So we don’t chase the first new highs above 4200 as the break out is not as important as the retest, you are likely to get trapped, expect a corrective pattern above below across 4200. Once this has developed then you can start working the SG1 above 4200 and the SG2 below 4200
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Trading Strategies
The US markets have met resistance i.e. DJI 12,500 and SP1300 (nearly) so there is not a lot of upside potential right now, sure if they find these levels as support, then fine, long it is, but they are resistance and we don’t buy into that risk.
The upside potential for Asia is from the Shanghai market as an Elliott wave low has been falling into place, so we should observe the support, pattern and volume, the first resistance is 2300 top of group1 and the second is 2500 this is where is can technically rally to before rolling over. The 2300 resistance is a solid one as it comes with supply. In the mean time we are likely to see the Shanghai retest 2200 before any attempt to push higher, so we could be a week away before knowing if a medium term low is forming, which in turn would assist the ASX in moving higher, the ASX finding support on 4200 is the first step in a real move up, but it is the 4300 the top of MinorGroup1 that is the real evidence and there is a lot of supply there, if support is found on 4200 over the days ahead, the target would be 4272 SG2 zone.
Weekly Cycle; Wed higher close, Thursday open higher close lower. If it does close lower today then it’s the volume that is the important aspect, that is, if the price moves down on lower volume that is a bullish sign.
Trading Quote
You decide your fate; the market doesn’t
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
11:00am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -1.0%
12:30pm CNY CPI y/y 4.0% 4.2%
12:30pm CNY PPI y/y 1.6% 2.7%
12th-16th NZD REINZ HPI m/m 1.1%
4:00pm JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 46.3 45.0
5:00pm JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 15.8%
5:30pm EUR French CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3%
6:00pm EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.7% 0.7%
6:45pm EUR French Gov Budget Balance -99.4B
8:00pm EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.1% -0.9%
8:30pm GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.0% -0.7%
8:30pm GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.1% -0.7%
9:00pm EUR Industrial Production m/m -0.2% -0.1%
11:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility 275B 275B
11:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50%
Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement
11:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate 1.00% 1.00%
12:30am CAD NHPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%
12:30am EUR ECB Press Conference
12:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.2%
12:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.2%
12:30am USD Unemployment Claims 370K 372K
2:00am GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.3%
2:00am USD Business Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.8%
2:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -76B
6:00am USD Federal Budget Balance -79.0B -137.3B
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Description:
Trading Strategies FREE TRIAL Click Here >> Trading Strategies
TradingLounge offers you 30 Years’ experience in Technical Analysis, Trading Strategies, Day Trading, Elliott Wave, TradingLevels and Trading Education in Trading Strategies in CFD Trading Strategies for Day Trading and Share Trading for the UK, USA and AU. We also mentor you in out trading Strategy step by step, there is a FREE TRIAL available at > http://tradinglounge.com.au
Trading Strategies
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1642
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: The 1650 MediumLevel is a good resistance and the Subgroup1 (SG1{1610|1620|1630}) as support, this support is support while the SG1 Pivot 1620 holds.
In terms of trading we would not go long while the price is under 1650 we would require this as support, we can also expect corrective price action at 1650. There is an Elliott wave count that finishes here and that’s fine however evidence is required of impulse waves down, if that becomes the case then scaling in under 1620 as resistance and then adding under 1600 would be sensible. If the 1650 does find support, then we can trade to 1700 which is the 61.8% retracement of the previous impulse wave down from 1800, anyway in the meantime we should just observe the battle between 1650 and SG1
Elliott Wave: The retest of 1650 is underway and the wave count up is in three waves but can also be counted in five, standing back for a moment and looking at the possibilities, this rally can also be the first leg of a larger abc rally to 1700 and I will point out why this is so in the video as it relates to the larger pattern down from 1800 to 1500+.
If this current retest fails we need to wait fro the pattern set up and that is, firstly waiting for the reaction at 1650 then finding support on 1630 or 1620 then retesting close to the last high /1650 etc and then rolling over down taking our the last low of support, this will prove the sellers have overwhelmed the buyers, we should also see US Indices do the same and the US Dollar push higher, it would also be good to see base metals do the same, copper.
Sliver at resistance 30.00 MajorLevel, if the price takes out 2956 add small short with stop above 30 and IF the market moves down look to add under 2900, 2872…
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Oil WTI: 102
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: Oil is still trapped in Group1 {101|102|103} above 100 TL1 as support so its positive, but in the next two degrees lower its negative under 103, if it can develop support on 102 the SG1 pivot then that is a plus but at the end of the day its finding support on top of SG1 103 that is the key for a long trade. Oil can move with stock, so the Dow also finding support on12,500 (mTL5) is also important for trading long, not essential but helpful, you can also look to the base metals and as we use copper the 350 as a solid support.
All of this helps with being long on equities with the Robo trading strategies.
Earlier in the week we were looking at Shanghai as it has moved down a lot more than other markets and could see it was oversold and the Elliott wave count was looking for a low and that low may be in now, it certainly has made a sign but would need confirmation in the structure, but while that current low is in place so is support for Asia and commodities.
Elliott Wave: expect further strength on crude towards and above 103.70. Well, in the two sessions prices made a pull-back for almost 61.8%. And so far pull-back appears corrective which fits very nicely into the bullish incomplete structure.
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.52+
US Nickel: Last: 8.72-
US Zinc: Last: 0.86+
US Aluminium Last: 0.96+
Copper CFD: 353
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: The next step is finding the Midpoint 350 as support or resistance, we can see the Asian markets pushing up but more importantly we can see support now coming in for Shanghai, all eye on this support as this is the driver, the negative in the market is the US Indices running out of stream, there are indicators also confirming this, but we would need evidence in the wave structure to call a top in and that would be an impulse (five waves) to the down side, I was thinking of a top being in place this week for the US but its not there yet. We can use the 350 as support or resistance for being long or short in the material sectors in the US UK AU markets, the other guide stick is US BHP being above or below 72 for being long or short
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.58
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The move up in the last session up from 81.00 is likely a wave b which will be followed be wave c back down to 81.00 and then push higher, if wrong and the price does move higher then support on 81.72 would be required. This is also reflected in the EURUSD in its wave four, its move down can also be a Wave b or the Wave 5. So use the levels in part to create a strong trade set up and trade shorter degrees of structure while in this 5th or b wave
Forex EURUSD 1.27
TradingLevels: The 1.2720 is the line in the sand as support or resistance for being long or short, as say this to simplify the situation as the Elliott count can have the move down from 128 as wave five or wave b,
Elliott Wave: If the move down from 128 is wave b then expect wave c up as a retest of 128, if the move down is wave five than a new low would be made.
Trading Strategies: The two important numbers at the lower end are 12720 and 12650
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Forex AUDUSD 1.03
TradingLevels: The move up last night from 10272 to 103 is on diminishing volume, so a solid support on 103 would be required for a safer trade up to make new highs above 10350
Elliott Wave: As an alternative count, the pattern on 103 over the last few days can be a wave four, if correct then a move into new highs to 10372
Trading Strategies: Long of 103 as support, building the trade through group1 {10310|10320|10330} the 10320 is helpful but the top of group1 10330 as support is more important to the bigger picture
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Indices
A few side points to mention, the US Earning season have started and the Shanghai has found a support on its low, will it hold is another matter, we will monitor the volume in the rally.
Dow Jones CFD 12,437
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 12500 is the line in the sand here, as support or resistance, however this will take time to develop. There are indicators and sentiment indicators creating over bought and divergences and an Elliott count for a high around here, but either way lets just let the 12500 play out as support or resistance, we have plenty of time to wait for a set up here long or short as a long would require a series of swings before support and resistance would require a few retests. There will be corrective price action here at 12500 and it is a target price point for us, but let’s just wait and see what develops before making a decision
Elliott Wave: As you know we are looking for a top here, but we simply need to time to see
Trading Strategies: Wait for support or resistance, resistance and retests would be quicker than support if is was going to go that way, on the short side you would be looking for the second retest of 12500 to fail and take out the last low.
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
S&P500 CFD: 1290
TradingLevels: The 1,300 is the resistance so expect a reaction there.
Elliott Wave: Same -The structure up is still going so expect he price to find a top this week at or above 1300. Count the impulse wave (5 waves) from the 1265 (SG2) up, you can see it still had further to go
Trading Strategies: Day trading, support on 1290 creates the long but exit before 1300
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
FTSE 100 CFD: 5690
TradingLevels: while the 5650 is support the pattern up is supported, 5650 as resistance creates short set ups
Elliott Wave: Same - Targets 5772 - 5800
Trading Strategies: You could work SG2 for a trade SG2 5665|5672|5680 expect the price to continue to swing across this level but wait for support or resistance here, with 5672 being key.
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
SPI CFD 4189
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 4200 mTL2 is the pivot within MinorGroup1 this is important as it’s the balance line in Group1.
Elliott Wave: We were looking for five wave up from 4100 to 4200, they are now in place, so expect a corrective pattern at and across 4200, it can also fail here.
Trading Strategies: Expect the tradinglevels Classic pattern across 4200. So we don’t chase the first new highs above 4200 as the break out is not as important as the retest, you are likely to get trapped, expect a corrective pattern above below across 4200. Once this has developed then you can start working the SG1 above 4200 and the SG2 below 4200
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Trading Strategies
The US markets have met resistance i.e. DJI 12,500 and SP1300 (nearly) so there is not a lot of upside potential right now, sure if they find these levels as support, then fine, long it is, but they are resistance and we don’t buy into that risk.
The upside potential for Asia is from the Shanghai market as an Elliott wave low has been falling into place, so we should observe the support, pattern and volume, the first resistance is 2300 top of group1 and the second is 2500 this is where is can technically rally to before rolling over. The 2300 resistance is a solid one as it comes with supply. In the mean time we are likely to see the Shanghai retest 2200 before any attempt to push higher, so we could be a week away before knowing if a medium term low is forming, which in turn would assist the ASX in moving higher, the ASX finding support on 4200 is the first step in a real move up, but it is the 4300 the top of MinorGroup1 that is the real evidence and there is a lot of supply there, if support is found on 4200 over the days ahead, the target would be 4272 SG2 zone.
Weekly Cycle; Wed higher close, Thursday open higher close lower. If it does close lower today then it’s the volume that is the important aspect, that is, if the price moves down on lower volume that is a bullish sign.
Trading Quote
You decide your fate; the market doesn’t
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
11:00am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -1.0%
12:30pm CNY CPI y/y 4.0% 4.2%
12:30pm CNY PPI y/y 1.6% 2.7%
12th-16th NZD REINZ HPI m/m 1.1%
4:00pm JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 46.3 45.0
5:00pm JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 15.8%
5:30pm EUR French CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3%
6:00pm EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.7% 0.7%
6:45pm EUR French Gov Budget Balance -99.4B
8:00pm EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.1% -0.9%
8:30pm GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.0% -0.7%
8:30pm GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.1% -0.7%
9:00pm EUR Industrial Production m/m -0.2% -0.1%
11:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility 275B 275B
11:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50%
Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement
11:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate 1.00% 1.00%
12:30am CAD NHPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%
12:30am EUR ECB Press Conference
12:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.2%
12:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.2%
12:30am USD Unemployment Claims 370K 372K
2:00am GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.3%
2:00am USD Business Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.8%
2:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -76B
6:00am USD Federal Budget Balance -79.0B -137.3B
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Friday, 23 December 2011
Day Trading
If you require Day Trading trades then visit TradingLounge.com.au for Day Trading on the ASX, NYSE, NASSAQ and Indices.
Watch Day Trading video on youtube by tradinglounge: http://youtu.be/qh1YAQ-hkrA
Day TradingDow Jones 11,866 -0.02%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1598
Oil WTI CFD: 93.52
Copper CFD: 335
US Dollar CFD: 80.66
EURUSD 1.3044
AUDUSD 0.9980
Dow Jones CFD 11880
S&P500 CFD: 1215
FTSE 100 CFD: 5359
SPI CFD 4135
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- An early rally for U.S. stocks faded as investors continued fretting about Europe's debt crisis.The Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 12 points, or 0.1%, at 11856, after earlier rising nearly 100 points. Weighing on the downside was International Business Machines, which dropped 2.2%, and United Technologies, which fell 1.7%.The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index tacked on 3 points, or 0.3%, to 1219. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 14 points, or 0.6%, to 2555
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1598
Following on from the Elliott wave count from the last post, the Wave (iv) retest to 1600 is underway, yes it can pop up in SG1 of 1600 but should fade and fall lower into Wave (v) down at 1500 the MediumLevel (ML15) where it will have a larger bounce, once this bounce is over the price should work lower down through 1500. It is worth point out the significance of this 1500, it is the 50% between 1000 and 2000 and this means if the price finds 1500 as resistance then the balance is towards 1000 (TL1) and not 2000 (TL2) if this is the case then we can start working with the levels below 1500 and they are MinorLevel 1,300, 1,200, 1,100 which are Minor Group1. The normal flow down from one MajorLevel such as 2000 to 1000 is quite simple, let’s just start with 1500 the Medium level, the price would move down to this level and bounce (abc correction) this high is the first high, then the price would bounce off 1500 again creating the second high and so on until the price moved through 1500 and then retested it as resistance and supply levels would be lowering, eventually the weight of the market would be trapped under 1500 and then the same thing would happen at 1300 the top of Minor Group 1. Another point worth noting, is that the price travels quite fast down from 8 to 5 and 5 to 3 they are the best numbers to short betweenSliver The bounce off the first MinorLevel under 30.00 TL3 is 28.00 mTL3 and this is the normal level for the retest of supply i.e. 30.00 TL3 and this is the price to add to short positions, when the price moves through 28.00 also add to shorts and if it retests 28.00 short again, so split the trade up and work it around the 28.00, the much the same as you may have done above TL3. Under 28.00 is 27.72, 27.20 then 26.50 and the MediumLevel 25.00 ML25 you can cover at 25 or when Gold is at 15.00 because the wave count would be expecting a larger rally about there, but we will look at the ending of this structure into these levels and the expected rally later in the weekOil WTI CFD: 93.52
Oil basically follows Indices and Indices will soon make new lows.
The two main points here is that 95 the Midpoint is required as the resistance, this would mean the price would move below 90 towards 80 TL8.
The second point is any current rallies, firstly the price would stay under the 98 mTL8, yes this is high but it is possible on the first retest but probably unlikely, so the secondary level is 95 to 9650, the wave four of one lesser degree is around 96.00 so this would be a comfortable price point to consider, also if the price locks under 92.00 the pivot in Minor Group1 then the price is part of the 90.00 storey and any long term short stops can sit above 95.00 Once 90 is the retested resistance stops can be moved down to 93+ top of MG1.
Elliott Wave – Consider any retest of 95/96 as wave iv) and Wave v) down to 90 which would make Wave (iii) at 90, so a Wave (iv) bounce from 88 – 93 range at 90. This is still the early stages of a bear market…Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.31+
US Nickel: Last: 8.37+
US Zinc: Last: 0.84+
US Aluminium Last: 0.88+Copper CFD: 335
The rally on Friday to 337 should be Wave iv, it may move higher to 338 – 344 but that’s about it, the price should work lower below 320 as Wave v of iii), the price should keep edging down in line with the Indices.
A move below 320 the pivot of Group1 would confirm the larger downside pictureForex
US Dollar CFD: 80.66
Moving into the March 2012 Futures contract.
The Euro is moving lower into a low of wave three to 130 – 128 therefor the Dollar will do the opposite around 80 and above, the trend for the Dollar is up, but we have to expect a larger correction across 80.00, the highs should start with MinorGroup1 83.00 while the correction unfolds.
EURUSD 1.3044
TradingLevels: There’s not much to say here, we know the rally is corrective and will now be short lived. Also when talking about the number 1.30 we should also put in 1.28 and 1.2772 this will become apparent in the next swing down
Elliott Wave: The Same - Wave (iv) is unfolding at 130 and potentially can move higher, but it is corrective and once completed move down for wave five (iv)
Day Trading Strategies: The wave four is still unfolding and can get uglier, meaning the corrective pattern can simply continue to expand, that said you can start to look for short trade set ups, but keeping the stops above the high, keeping the position size very small as part of a scaling in process, the risk is high on picking tops it can take three times to get it right, that is the risk of picking tops. Also line this rally on 130 with the Dow Futures and the Dollar finding support on 80AUDUSD 0.9980
TradingLevels: The retest of 1.00 is still under way and it’s from being a little patient here, if the price finds support on 1.00 then scalp long and if the 99.72 becomes the retested resistance then look for short trade set ups.
We also have to expect in the slightly bigger picture for the price to spend time swinging across 1.00 in the 103 – 98 range, the reason for this assumption is the larger triangle pattern back from September as it has lower highs and lower highs basically driving the price into 1.00 it will in time come out from 1.00 and that’s the trend we need.
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart) A move above 1.0030 creates a larger corrective and a different wave structure, we will talk about this if it occurs
Day Trading Strategy: Continue to scalp through the sublevels while around 1.00
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 11880
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The retest pattern to 12,000 is corrective, so new lows should be made under 11,800 also meaning the 11,500 MediumLevel comes back into view and of course this opens a larger door and of course confirms Intermediate Wave (3) is underway
Elliott Wave: The bias for Intermediate Wave (3) is looking stronger than one more new high and it is the Euro that leads the way for the Indices to follow as the fear factor grows the trend down
Day Trading Strategy: 11,872 SG2 Resistance short. The 11,772 could be a small stubborn support to navigate but a quick fall is expected from the structure and the failing retest of 12,000 however work the 11,800 as the resistance as price move quick from 8 to 5 that is 11,800 to 11,500.S&P500 CFD: 1215
TradingLevels: The Pivot 1220 within SG1 of 1200 has some small resistance which helps makes the price part of 1200 story and there the 1172 SG2 zone
Wave count: As you know we cannot confirm intermediate wave (3) down yet. We can’t also rule out the markets making one more new high and the Elliott Wave count on our site reflects this bullish possibility and it may be a week before we can have evidence in the structure. The short term trend is down so being short is the correct trade.
Day Trading Strategies: Stops at 1233 wait for 1200 to be the retested resistance before adding to shorts.FTSE 100 CFD: 5359
TradingLevels: 5372 resistance for a short trade to 5300 top of Minor Group1
Elliott Wave: The pattern is the same as the Sp500 and Dow etc. the bias is down
Day Trading Strategies: Stop above 5372 if the Midpoint 5350 becomes the retested resistance then add to the position, covering a percentage at 5330, the price moving down through SG1 5330|5320|5310 will be bumpy with the target and corrective patter at 5300 mTL3
SPI CFD 4135
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: There would be a long trend trade if the 4200 became support. This doesn’t mean you couldn’t go long on 4150 as support and adding if 4172 becomes support as the 4200 and the 4172 are the current resistances.
Elliott Wave: The bounce pattern over the last few days can be bearish corrective meaning more downside, or it can be the start of a move up, the structure is not developed enough, however much the same pattern is across many other markets and they seem to be corrective meaning more downside, so the bias for a trade here is short
Day Trading Strategies: Trade short, however if the Midpoint 4150 develops as support then the bias is for a larger corrective pattern. The 4150 has not been retested, so stops would need to be above 4172 Summary
The small Elliott wave four pull back that we were talking about on Friday across most markets is now more fully developed and suggesting the next swing lower which is just about underway, this is short term technical analysis, the bigger picture is another story, as you know we have the SP500 wave count on the site and this wave count reflects the currencies wave counts and all that is fine ,we will continue working that pattern. In the EarlyBird here we have been exploring the a larger bearish picture also, that is Elliott Wave Intermediate Wave (3) unfolding the bias for this is building and it is the Euro that is being the catalyst for this as the SP500 and Euro move together, we understand the US Dollar will spend time at 80 and the Euro 130 – 128 zone for some time and the Dow will find support at the MediumLevel 11,500, if along the way the 11,500 becomes the resistance then we can look at 10,000 and lower.
From a day trading point of view we are short, if the 11,500 or we can see evidence in the wave structure of a larger pattern developing then we will be trading larger trends short
Trading QuoteTo whatever degree you haven't accepted the risk, is the same degree to which you will avoid the risk. Trying to avoid something that is unavoidable will have disastrous effects on your ability to trade successfully.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:00am NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 112.0
11:00am NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 18.3
11:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -3.1%
11:01am GBP BOE Quarterly Bulletin
8:00pm EUR Current Account -1.9B 0.5B
8:00pm EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.97B -1.84B
12:30am CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 0.6% 0.3%
2:00am USD NAHB Housing Market Index 21 20
2:30am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Free Stuff on Technical Analysis is available on TradingLounge.com.au site!
Watch Day Trading video on youtube by tradinglounge: http://youtu.be/qh1YAQ-hkrA
Day TradingDow Jones 11,866 -0.02%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1598
Oil WTI CFD: 93.52
Copper CFD: 335
US Dollar CFD: 80.66
EURUSD 1.3044
AUDUSD 0.9980
Dow Jones CFD 11880
S&P500 CFD: 1215
FTSE 100 CFD: 5359
SPI CFD 4135
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- An early rally for U.S. stocks faded as investors continued fretting about Europe's debt crisis.The Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 12 points, or 0.1%, at 11856, after earlier rising nearly 100 points. Weighing on the downside was International Business Machines, which dropped 2.2%, and United Technologies, which fell 1.7%.The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index tacked on 3 points, or 0.3%, to 1219. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 14 points, or 0.6%, to 2555
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1598
Following on from the Elliott wave count from the last post, the Wave (iv) retest to 1600 is underway, yes it can pop up in SG1 of 1600 but should fade and fall lower into Wave (v) down at 1500 the MediumLevel (ML15) where it will have a larger bounce, once this bounce is over the price should work lower down through 1500. It is worth point out the significance of this 1500, it is the 50% between 1000 and 2000 and this means if the price finds 1500 as resistance then the balance is towards 1000 (TL1) and not 2000 (TL2) if this is the case then we can start working with the levels below 1500 and they are MinorLevel 1,300, 1,200, 1,100 which are Minor Group1. The normal flow down from one MajorLevel such as 2000 to 1000 is quite simple, let’s just start with 1500 the Medium level, the price would move down to this level and bounce (abc correction) this high is the first high, then the price would bounce off 1500 again creating the second high and so on until the price moved through 1500 and then retested it as resistance and supply levels would be lowering, eventually the weight of the market would be trapped under 1500 and then the same thing would happen at 1300 the top of Minor Group 1. Another point worth noting, is that the price travels quite fast down from 8 to 5 and 5 to 3 they are the best numbers to short betweenSliver The bounce off the first MinorLevel under 30.00 TL3 is 28.00 mTL3 and this is the normal level for the retest of supply i.e. 30.00 TL3 and this is the price to add to short positions, when the price moves through 28.00 also add to shorts and if it retests 28.00 short again, so split the trade up and work it around the 28.00, the much the same as you may have done above TL3. Under 28.00 is 27.72, 27.20 then 26.50 and the MediumLevel 25.00 ML25 you can cover at 25 or when Gold is at 15.00 because the wave count would be expecting a larger rally about there, but we will look at the ending of this structure into these levels and the expected rally later in the weekOil WTI CFD: 93.52
Oil basically follows Indices and Indices will soon make new lows.
The two main points here is that 95 the Midpoint is required as the resistance, this would mean the price would move below 90 towards 80 TL8.
The second point is any current rallies, firstly the price would stay under the 98 mTL8, yes this is high but it is possible on the first retest but probably unlikely, so the secondary level is 95 to 9650, the wave four of one lesser degree is around 96.00 so this would be a comfortable price point to consider, also if the price locks under 92.00 the pivot in Minor Group1 then the price is part of the 90.00 storey and any long term short stops can sit above 95.00 Once 90 is the retested resistance stops can be moved down to 93+ top of MG1.
Elliott Wave – Consider any retest of 95/96 as wave iv) and Wave v) down to 90 which would make Wave (iii) at 90, so a Wave (iv) bounce from 88 – 93 range at 90. This is still the early stages of a bear market…Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.31+
US Nickel: Last: 8.37+
US Zinc: Last: 0.84+
US Aluminium Last: 0.88+Copper CFD: 335
The rally on Friday to 337 should be Wave iv, it may move higher to 338 – 344 but that’s about it, the price should work lower below 320 as Wave v of iii), the price should keep edging down in line with the Indices.
A move below 320 the pivot of Group1 would confirm the larger downside pictureForex
US Dollar CFD: 80.66
Moving into the March 2012 Futures contract.
The Euro is moving lower into a low of wave three to 130 – 128 therefor the Dollar will do the opposite around 80 and above, the trend for the Dollar is up, but we have to expect a larger correction across 80.00, the highs should start with MinorGroup1 83.00 while the correction unfolds.
EURUSD 1.3044
TradingLevels: There’s not much to say here, we know the rally is corrective and will now be short lived. Also when talking about the number 1.30 we should also put in 1.28 and 1.2772 this will become apparent in the next swing down
Elliott Wave: The Same - Wave (iv) is unfolding at 130 and potentially can move higher, but it is corrective and once completed move down for wave five (iv)
Day Trading Strategies: The wave four is still unfolding and can get uglier, meaning the corrective pattern can simply continue to expand, that said you can start to look for short trade set ups, but keeping the stops above the high, keeping the position size very small as part of a scaling in process, the risk is high on picking tops it can take three times to get it right, that is the risk of picking tops. Also line this rally on 130 with the Dow Futures and the Dollar finding support on 80AUDUSD 0.9980
TradingLevels: The retest of 1.00 is still under way and it’s from being a little patient here, if the price finds support on 1.00 then scalp long and if the 99.72 becomes the retested resistance then look for short trade set ups.
We also have to expect in the slightly bigger picture for the price to spend time swinging across 1.00 in the 103 – 98 range, the reason for this assumption is the larger triangle pattern back from September as it has lower highs and lower highs basically driving the price into 1.00 it will in time come out from 1.00 and that’s the trend we need.
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart) A move above 1.0030 creates a larger corrective and a different wave structure, we will talk about this if it occurs
Day Trading Strategy: Continue to scalp through the sublevels while around 1.00
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 11880
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The retest pattern to 12,000 is corrective, so new lows should be made under 11,800 also meaning the 11,500 MediumLevel comes back into view and of course this opens a larger door and of course confirms Intermediate Wave (3) is underway
Elliott Wave: The bias for Intermediate Wave (3) is looking stronger than one more new high and it is the Euro that leads the way for the Indices to follow as the fear factor grows the trend down
Day Trading Strategy: 11,872 SG2 Resistance short. The 11,772 could be a small stubborn support to navigate but a quick fall is expected from the structure and the failing retest of 12,000 however work the 11,800 as the resistance as price move quick from 8 to 5 that is 11,800 to 11,500.S&P500 CFD: 1215
TradingLevels: The Pivot 1220 within SG1 of 1200 has some small resistance which helps makes the price part of 1200 story and there the 1172 SG2 zone
Wave count: As you know we cannot confirm intermediate wave (3) down yet. We can’t also rule out the markets making one more new high and the Elliott Wave count on our site reflects this bullish possibility and it may be a week before we can have evidence in the structure. The short term trend is down so being short is the correct trade.
Day Trading Strategies: Stops at 1233 wait for 1200 to be the retested resistance before adding to shorts.FTSE 100 CFD: 5359
TradingLevels: 5372 resistance for a short trade to 5300 top of Minor Group1
Elliott Wave: The pattern is the same as the Sp500 and Dow etc. the bias is down
Day Trading Strategies: Stop above 5372 if the Midpoint 5350 becomes the retested resistance then add to the position, covering a percentage at 5330, the price moving down through SG1 5330|5320|5310 will be bumpy with the target and corrective patter at 5300 mTL3
SPI CFD 4135
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: There would be a long trend trade if the 4200 became support. This doesn’t mean you couldn’t go long on 4150 as support and adding if 4172 becomes support as the 4200 and the 4172 are the current resistances.
Elliott Wave: The bounce pattern over the last few days can be bearish corrective meaning more downside, or it can be the start of a move up, the structure is not developed enough, however much the same pattern is across many other markets and they seem to be corrective meaning more downside, so the bias for a trade here is short
Day Trading Strategies: Trade short, however if the Midpoint 4150 develops as support then the bias is for a larger corrective pattern. The 4150 has not been retested, so stops would need to be above 4172 Summary
The small Elliott wave four pull back that we were talking about on Friday across most markets is now more fully developed and suggesting the next swing lower which is just about underway, this is short term technical analysis, the bigger picture is another story, as you know we have the SP500 wave count on the site and this wave count reflects the currencies wave counts and all that is fine ,we will continue working that pattern. In the EarlyBird here we have been exploring the a larger bearish picture also, that is Elliott Wave Intermediate Wave (3) unfolding the bias for this is building and it is the Euro that is being the catalyst for this as the SP500 and Euro move together, we understand the US Dollar will spend time at 80 and the Euro 130 – 128 zone for some time and the Dow will find support at the MediumLevel 11,500, if along the way the 11,500 becomes the resistance then we can look at 10,000 and lower.
From a day trading point of view we are short, if the 11,500 or we can see evidence in the wave structure of a larger pattern developing then we will be trading larger trends short
Trading QuoteTo whatever degree you haven't accepted the risk, is the same degree to which you will avoid the risk. Trying to avoid something that is unavoidable will have disastrous effects on your ability to trade successfully.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:00am NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 112.0
11:00am NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 18.3
11:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -3.1%
11:01am GBP BOE Quarterly Bulletin
8:00pm EUR Current Account -1.9B 0.5B
8:00pm EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.97B -1.84B
12:30am CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 0.6% 0.3%
2:00am USD NAHB Housing Market Index 21 20
2:30am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Free Stuff on Technical Analysis is available on TradingLounge.com.au site!
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