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News
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. stocks gained Tuesday after strong economic data in the U.S., China and Germany fuelled optimism over the pace of global economic growth, setting up stock indexes for their highest close in nearly half a year.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1653
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Ok, now we wait for the price to unfold and find support on the MediumLevel 1650. The resistance as you can see is Subgroup2 SG2 1665|1672|1680
Elliott wave The pattern across above below and across 1650 will be a wave four then wave five up to 1672, wave four can get a little complicated, especially when wave two is simple. The alternation between wave structures and in this case corrective, simple then complex is a guide line rather than a rule, but if the wave three is the extended wave then wave four is normally complicated as the large amount of energy from wave three requires balancing and this is also a point for the bigger picture in gold meaning the all-time high in gold to the low on the 29/12/2011 if this is a wave four, then its too simple for a wave four so we should also consider a much larger wave four unfolding, not so much in price but time before pushing higher above 2000
Silver The 61.8% retracement level is 3200
Oil WTI: 100
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Any long trades off 100 require at least two retests of 100, this is important as there is a bearish Elliott count for this rally as a wave two rally. But above a Major level like this the bias will change from negative to positive and IF support is found that forms part of the set up for scaling in long
Elliott wave The 61.8% retracement level is the current high at 101 however another push higher is expected once the retest for support on 100 (TL1) plays out, this will be in line with metals and stock
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.71+
US Nickel: Last: 8.86+
US Zinc: Last: 0.90+
US Aluminium Last: 0.98+
Copper CFD: 367
Technical Analysis
Same - Copper is in an uptrend and should continue, sure it will corrected into and through SG2 365|372|380 and will most likely trade sideways, but the bias is positive and this means the AUSUSD ASX and Asia in general is positive Expect a smaller wave four to unfold from 372 to 365 or 360 the wave four of one lesser degree
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.30
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Now that the price is back down at 81 we have to expect a larger corrective pattern to unfold down towards the 80, but this is unclear to me, the US dollar can have sharp moves that are hard to track using Elliott, if the Euro develops support on 128 then the Dollar will be seeing a larger corrective pattern into 80
The Elliott pattern down from the high is in three waves abc but it can turn into five waves, the bounce off 81 being wave four, the wave four should be sideways and a new low eventually made under 81, if this is the case then a larger correction will unfold into 80 and the Euro will push higher above 128
Forex EURUSD 1.2730
TradingLevels: The 1.2720 is the main price point, use the sublevels SG1 Midpoint and SG2 while the price is reacting from the 128
Elliott wave: The move down in the dollar is currently three wave corrective, the same here with the Euro the move up to 128 is in three waves corrective, however it could turn into five waves. The current sell off from 128 is impulsive so expect a minimum of three swings abc
Day Trading : It about being on the right side of 1.2720 but the pressure is to the downside because of the reaction from 128 in an impulsive wave if this is the case then 12672 is the lower target
Forex AUDUSD 1.0380
TradingLevelsThe price is swinging across 104 its only in its second swing, early days yet before completion and developing support on 104 and anyway it can pull back further besides the current support SG2 10372 the supports are 10350 and 10330.
Elliott wave Nice long trade if you go the support off 103 and scaled in through SG1. The pattern now is correcting the trend up, the correction can be a wave four so it should be time consuming. The move down from the high appears impulsive so this is just the first of three swings the question is will after these three swings find support on 104 and if so scale in long through SG1 of 104
Day Trading : no real strategy while the price is correcting in three swings, best to scalp the sublevels while in the correction
Indices
Markets in Asia closed sharply higher in the last session after better than expected "China Q4 GDP" data that came out 8.9%. Nikkei was up 1.05%, HSI 3.24% and China even more than 4%. This of course is very positive for some currencies, such as Eur, Gbp, Cad, Aud which is one of the strongest at the moment. US dollar of course is trading lower, as commodity prices rallied, such as gold and oil, in-line with stocks.
Dow Jones CFD 12,520
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Now we are above the 12,500 and the price is working out the support at this level, once this is completed we can look higher to 12650 and the original target of 12772 12,800. In the meantime the support for testing is back at 12472 SG2 zone
Elliott wave An impulse wave higher from the 12300 has still more to unfold up, the corrective pattern above and eventually through and across 12500 is a wave four once completed the price should move higher
Day Trading : Allow a session for wave four to complete and then find support back above 12500 for a the next long trade
S&P500 CFD: 1298
TradingLevels: The 1300 is a MinorLevel (mTL3) it is also the top of Minor Group1 (+SG1 1330) and if support is found here then this opens the door for higher ground, there is technical resistance around the 1320 and the Elliott Count has a top here that requires consideration. When working with a level such as mTL3 1300 we also work with the levels on either side so in this case SG1 above and SG2 below, we can expect SG1 and SG2 to be the resistances and supports while the price is vibrating at 1300
Elliott wave Wave structure on the 15min cash market of the S&P500 also shows incomplete bullish pattern. Now in wave four of an impulse, so more upside in view
Day Trading : Expect corrective reaction patterns at 1300. Counting five waves up from the last low support 290. No strategy while at the early stages of 1300
FTSE 100 CFD: 5670
TradingLevelsI would expect the price to find support in SG2 5680|5672|5665 even though the support is at 5650 the Midpoint. If and when the price climbs back above 5700 as support trade long and scale in through SG1 of 5700
Elliott wave Once the wave four correction at 5700 is completed then wave five up. The 5720 (72) is a subtle resistance and the 5772 and 5800 are then more real resistance and target points
Day Trading : Trade long IF 5700 becomes support again and use SG1 to build the trade
SPI CFD 4200
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels When 420 develops are support trade long through SG1 building the trade
Elliott wave The wave count is much like the AUD and it has a bullish and bearish count, the support on 4200 is a step in the right direction however it’s the support on 4300 the top of Minor Group1 that is key to a truly bullish market
Day Trading : Allow the swings at 4200 to settle then when the 4200 becomes the support then trade long. Use SG1 to build the trade
Technical Analysis
The China Q4 GDP gave markets a boost up and in most cases through their resistances
in line with most of the wave counts.
Markets are now dancing on and across their resistance levels once the dance is done look for support and trade short term long, the correctional dance in most cases is a small wave four, so when the wave moves up and completes a larger corrective pattern will occur
The only conflicting wave counts is the AUDUSD and US Indices, the first point I must point out is that the trends are up, however the Elliott count for the US Indices is for a Major top looming at a very rough guess the 12650 to 12800 for the Dow but the AUDUSD has a more bullish case, so one of them is wrong as the AUDUSD and Dow/SP500 move together. Like I said the trend is up and there is no evidence of a move down in US Indices. Anyway we will continue to monitor this aspect.
Trading Education Quote
Trading's only real secret is... The best loser is the long-term winner - Phantom of the Pits
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
10:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -8.3%
11:30am AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 2.3% -0.7%
3:30pm JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m -2.4% -2.6%
8:00pm EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.94B -1.08B
8:30pm GBP Claimant Count Change 8.2K 3.0K
8:30pm GBP Unemployment Rate 8.3% 8.3%
8:30pm GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.0% 2.0%
9:00pm CHF ZEW Economic Expectations -72.0
12:30am USD PPI m/m 0.1% 0.3%
12:30am USD Core PPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
1:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 27.3B 4.8B
1:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.2% 77.8%
1:15am USD Industrial Production m/m 0.5% -0.2%
1:30am USD FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
2:00am USD NAHB Housing Market Index 22 21
2:30am CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
2:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 5.0M
3:15am CAD BOC Press Conference
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
Showing posts with label CFD Technical Analyst. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CFD Technical Analyst. Show all posts
Wednesday, 18 January 2012
Tuesday, 17 January 2012
Technical Analysis
To Watch Video on Technical Analysis Visit Us on Youtube http://youtu.be/W-dwglBCU10
Description:
Technical Analysis
TradingLounge’s Peter Mathers Technical Analyst outlines Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies using the Tradinglevels Pattern Recognition Elliott Wave as Trading Education.
This Day Trading report is only the lead in for the actual mechanical Robo Day Trading for the Australia, US and UK Markets, Forex Elliott Wave Technical Analysis is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
CFD Trading Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1643
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading: The price is retesting 1650 MediumLevel, our Elliott count is expecting it to roll over down, but we should not jump the gun on a short until the evidence is in place.
Also the move down from the 1662 high down to the low 1625, is not a clear five waves (impulse) it’s more like a three wave corrective pattern, if that is the case then the price should climb above 1650 and if that is the case then a long trade would be created off the 1650 support. Any way we need to wait for a set up
Elliott wave: Gold fell nicely into 1625 projected area that we highlighted on Friday. But despite that fall, we are still monitoring a wave structure that will send the market lower. We are talking about an expanded flat formation with wave c) underway, which should find a peak in the next two sessions, ideally around 1648-1652 area.
Silver If the 2972 becomes the retested resistance then short, if the 30.00 becomes support then scale in long through SG1
Oil WTI: 99.65
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading: The technical resistance is 100 and the supply (sellers) 101, The 101 is also the 61.8% rally target. We need to allow this to play out and we need to see the US market stock market e.g. the Dow play out at 12500. Do not go long on Oil while the price is retesting resistance as this is a negative bias
Elliott wave: On our chart the Elliott count is label for further down side, with the price rolling over from the 100, however also be aware of the ABC pattern, that is from the high around the 6th Jan 103.50 to the low around the 13th 98 can be counted as an abc corrective pattern this is why it’s important to allow this pattern to play out, the real short trade if any is much further out there in time, essentially five waves down then three waves back up then the short, we only have three down at the moment
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.66+
US Nickel: Last: 8.84-
US Zinc: Last: 0.88+
US Aluminium Last: 0.95+
Copper CFD: 367
Technical Analysis:
Copper is in an uptrend and should continue, sure it will corrected into and through SG2 365|372|380 and will most likely trade sideways, but the bias is positive and this means the AUSUSD ASX and Asia in general is positive
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.62
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading: the dollar is still reacting to the MinorLevel 82.00 (mTL2), the weak spot is it trading under SG2 8172 as this creates the next level down at the Midpoint 8150, this also means the Euro will hold up and stocks can move higher, so the 8172 is a line in the sand you can judge other market and also be on the right side of this price point. This of course helps the AUD up
Forex EURUSD 1.2663
Technical Analysis: Support on 1.2672 puts the price at 1.27 – 1.2720 or even high as 1.2772 before rolling over down. While the US Dollar is under 8172 this would be the case, so what that too. And short under the 12672 and then 65 as retested
Elliott wave: The price did not drop from the 1.2672 and 1.2650 as expected and in fact now find these numbers as support. We are considering the rise as a corrective rally
Day Trading us the 1.2672 as support to get to 1.27 exit and once and if support is creates on 1.27 scale in expect resistance at 1.2720 so this as support is required for higher group, the Dollar would be bouncing of the Midpoint 8150 be then so the 8150 would also be important as support or resistance. And short under the 12672 and then 65 as retested
Forex AUDUSD 1.0316
TradingLevels: The price pattern is slowly edging forwards in developing support on 103
Elliott wave: Once retested support is established look for a long trade to 104
Trading Strategies: Support SG2 10272 you need 103 as support, tested support then seeing the price build through SG1 10310|10320|10330 you know support on top of SG1 10330 creates the higher ground. The current corrective pattern at this 103 can get bigger, because copper should correct somewhat now, however there is talk of China putting money into their system this week, the Shanghai also needs to stay above 2200, also the dollar being under the 8172 is supportive for the aud. But in the end it’s the retests into 103 that you need to observe and work the levels in SG1 especially the support on 10330, if this does happen new highs should be made, but there will be resistances at the Midpoint 10350 and SG2 65,72,80
FTSE 100 CFD: 5641
Day Trading: Subgroup2 (SG2) 5665|5672|5680 is the resistance and supply
Elliott wave: Unsure, however any longs need to have 5672 as support
Trading Strategies: Only go long if 5672 is the support. When the price moves up to this level SG2 the price will react, so give it time to swing around for a while before thinking going long or short.
SPI CFD 4160
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Intraday, support on 4172 is required for long trades, you can take on higher risk is you like and buy above 4150 with stops at 4143 as a move under this stop would have created a corrective rally with further downside to come.
Elliott wave: Still looking at this larger corrective pattern as just that corrective, but the 4150 would really need to hold now otherwise a larger degree of pattern would be unfolding and this opens a more bearish window
Day Trading: The same as yesterday, look for support in SG2. Work any trade from SG2 4165|4172|4180 the 4172 is the important price point. Remember the Shanghai really need to remain above the 2200 and also observe the AUDUSD to see if it can develop support on the 103 this would be help full.
Technical Analysis
US Stocks and Bonds were closed last night, so we can look at the Dax and UK, such as UK BHP being positive and steady, the US Dollar being under 8172 this should reflect back here to some degree of our markets being steady today
The Shanghai market was also down yesterday, but as long as it stays above the 2200 we can consider the low there still forming, but we must trade lightly in all markets at the moment as the US market are still facing resistances, the Dow 12500 SP500 1300 this places a negative bias, the only real positive are the base metals and the possibility on the China market form this current low, but be aware this forming of a low can disappear quickly.
The ASX200 to be positive needs to build on 4200 as support if it slips under the 4150 then it’s not a positive look for this market, any way volumes are light and we should be trading smaller position sizes and short trading ranges
Another weakness in the air is the US reporting this week, as there are something like 40 big companies reporting earns and they are not looking good based on the amount of current downgrading last week, this can be the catalyst for the Dow to rollover under the 12500, so don’t commit to the long side too much
The ASX Q4 2011 Activities / Production Report are out this week you can get them from the link at the top of this page (link to Dow Jones News) look for DJ Asia-Pacific Calendar.
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Trading Quote
You may not understand it fully right now but the market is always right.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:00am NZD NZIER Business Confidence 25
10:00am USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
10:50am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -0.3% 0.6%
17th-20th GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence 41 40
1:00pm CNY GDP q/y 8.8% 9.1%
1:00pm CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 24.2% 24.5%
1:00pm CNY Industrial Production y/y 12.3% 12.4%
1:00pm CNY NBS Press Conference
1:00pm CNY Retail Sales y/y 17.2% 17.3%
8:30pm GBP CPI y/y 4.2% 4.8%
8:30pm GBP RPI y/y 4.7% 5.2%
8:30pm GBP Core CPI y/y 3.0% 3.2%
8:30pm GBP DCLG HPI y/y 0.2% -0.4%
9:00pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -49.5 -53.8
9:00pm EUR CPI y/y 2.8% 2.8%
9:00pm EUR Core CPI y/y 1.6% 1.6%
9:00pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -48.7 -54.1
9:00pm GBP BOE Gov King Speaks
9:00pm GBP CB Leading Index m/m -0.4%
12:30am CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 6.97B 2.03B
12:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 10.7 9.5
1:00am CAD BOC Rate Statement
1:00am CAD Overnight Rate 1.00% 1.00%
5:30am GBP MPC Member Posen Speaks
Description:
Technical Analysis
TradingLounge’s Peter Mathers Technical Analyst outlines Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies using the Tradinglevels Pattern Recognition Elliott Wave as Trading Education.
This Day Trading report is only the lead in for the actual mechanical Robo Day Trading for the Australia, US and UK Markets, Forex Elliott Wave Technical Analysis is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
CFD Trading Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1643
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading: The price is retesting 1650 MediumLevel, our Elliott count is expecting it to roll over down, but we should not jump the gun on a short until the evidence is in place.
Also the move down from the 1662 high down to the low 1625, is not a clear five waves (impulse) it’s more like a three wave corrective pattern, if that is the case then the price should climb above 1650 and if that is the case then a long trade would be created off the 1650 support. Any way we need to wait for a set up
Elliott wave: Gold fell nicely into 1625 projected area that we highlighted on Friday. But despite that fall, we are still monitoring a wave structure that will send the market lower. We are talking about an expanded flat formation with wave c) underway, which should find a peak in the next two sessions, ideally around 1648-1652 area.
Silver If the 2972 becomes the retested resistance then short, if the 30.00 becomes support then scale in long through SG1
Oil WTI: 99.65
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading: The technical resistance is 100 and the supply (sellers) 101, The 101 is also the 61.8% rally target. We need to allow this to play out and we need to see the US market stock market e.g. the Dow play out at 12500. Do not go long on Oil while the price is retesting resistance as this is a negative bias
Elliott wave: On our chart the Elliott count is label for further down side, with the price rolling over from the 100, however also be aware of the ABC pattern, that is from the high around the 6th Jan 103.50 to the low around the 13th 98 can be counted as an abc corrective pattern this is why it’s important to allow this pattern to play out, the real short trade if any is much further out there in time, essentially five waves down then three waves back up then the short, we only have three down at the moment
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.66+
US Nickel: Last: 8.84-
US Zinc: Last: 0.88+
US Aluminium Last: 0.95+
Copper CFD: 367
Technical Analysis:
Copper is in an uptrend and should continue, sure it will corrected into and through SG2 365|372|380 and will most likely trade sideways, but the bias is positive and this means the AUSUSD ASX and Asia in general is positive
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.62
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading: the dollar is still reacting to the MinorLevel 82.00 (mTL2), the weak spot is it trading under SG2 8172 as this creates the next level down at the Midpoint 8150, this also means the Euro will hold up and stocks can move higher, so the 8172 is a line in the sand you can judge other market and also be on the right side of this price point. This of course helps the AUD up
Forex EURUSD 1.2663
Technical Analysis: Support on 1.2672 puts the price at 1.27 – 1.2720 or even high as 1.2772 before rolling over down. While the US Dollar is under 8172 this would be the case, so what that too. And short under the 12672 and then 65 as retested
Elliott wave: The price did not drop from the 1.2672 and 1.2650 as expected and in fact now find these numbers as support. We are considering the rise as a corrective rally
Day Trading us the 1.2672 as support to get to 1.27 exit and once and if support is creates on 1.27 scale in expect resistance at 1.2720 so this as support is required for higher group, the Dollar would be bouncing of the Midpoint 8150 be then so the 8150 would also be important as support or resistance. And short under the 12672 and then 65 as retested
Forex AUDUSD 1.0316
TradingLevels: The price pattern is slowly edging forwards in developing support on 103
Elliott wave: Once retested support is established look for a long trade to 104
Trading Strategies: Support SG2 10272 you need 103 as support, tested support then seeing the price build through SG1 10310|10320|10330 you know support on top of SG1 10330 creates the higher ground. The current corrective pattern at this 103 can get bigger, because copper should correct somewhat now, however there is talk of China putting money into their system this week, the Shanghai also needs to stay above 2200, also the dollar being under the 8172 is supportive for the aud. But in the end it’s the retests into 103 that you need to observe and work the levels in SG1 especially the support on 10330, if this does happen new highs should be made, but there will be resistances at the Midpoint 10350 and SG2 65,72,80
FTSE 100 CFD: 5641
Day Trading: Subgroup2 (SG2) 5665|5672|5680 is the resistance and supply
Elliott wave: Unsure, however any longs need to have 5672 as support
Trading Strategies: Only go long if 5672 is the support. When the price moves up to this level SG2 the price will react, so give it time to swing around for a while before thinking going long or short.
SPI CFD 4160
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Intraday, support on 4172 is required for long trades, you can take on higher risk is you like and buy above 4150 with stops at 4143 as a move under this stop would have created a corrective rally with further downside to come.
Elliott wave: Still looking at this larger corrective pattern as just that corrective, but the 4150 would really need to hold now otherwise a larger degree of pattern would be unfolding and this opens a more bearish window
Day Trading: The same as yesterday, look for support in SG2. Work any trade from SG2 4165|4172|4180 the 4172 is the important price point. Remember the Shanghai really need to remain above the 2200 and also observe the AUDUSD to see if it can develop support on the 103 this would be help full.
Technical Analysis
US Stocks and Bonds were closed last night, so we can look at the Dax and UK, such as UK BHP being positive and steady, the US Dollar being under 8172 this should reflect back here to some degree of our markets being steady today
The Shanghai market was also down yesterday, but as long as it stays above the 2200 we can consider the low there still forming, but we must trade lightly in all markets at the moment as the US market are still facing resistances, the Dow 12500 SP500 1300 this places a negative bias, the only real positive are the base metals and the possibility on the China market form this current low, but be aware this forming of a low can disappear quickly.
The ASX200 to be positive needs to build on 4200 as support if it slips under the 4150 then it’s not a positive look for this market, any way volumes are light and we should be trading smaller position sizes and short trading ranges
Another weakness in the air is the US reporting this week, as there are something like 40 big companies reporting earns and they are not looking good based on the amount of current downgrading last week, this can be the catalyst for the Dow to rollover under the 12500, so don’t commit to the long side too much
The ASX Q4 2011 Activities / Production Report are out this week you can get them from the link at the top of this page (link to Dow Jones News) look for DJ Asia-Pacific Calendar.
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Trading Quote
You may not understand it fully right now but the market is always right.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:00am NZD NZIER Business Confidence 25
10:00am USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
10:50am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -0.3% 0.6%
17th-20th GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence 41 40
1:00pm CNY GDP q/y 8.8% 9.1%
1:00pm CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 24.2% 24.5%
1:00pm CNY Industrial Production y/y 12.3% 12.4%
1:00pm CNY NBS Press Conference
1:00pm CNY Retail Sales y/y 17.2% 17.3%
8:30pm GBP CPI y/y 4.2% 4.8%
8:30pm GBP RPI y/y 4.7% 5.2%
8:30pm GBP Core CPI y/y 3.0% 3.2%
8:30pm GBP DCLG HPI y/y 0.2% -0.4%
9:00pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -49.5 -53.8
9:00pm EUR CPI y/y 2.8% 2.8%
9:00pm EUR Core CPI y/y 1.6% 1.6%
9:00pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -48.7 -54.1
9:00pm GBP BOE Gov King Speaks
9:00pm GBP CB Leading Index m/m -0.4%
12:30am CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 6.97B 2.03B
12:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 10.7 9.5
1:00am CAD BOC Rate Statement
1:00am CAD Overnight Rate 1.00% 1.00%
5:30am GBP MPC Member Posen Speaks
Friday, 23 December 2011
Technical Analysis
Click to Technical Analysis to Watch the Video.
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Technical Analysis Report
Dow Jones – 11,973 -1.73%
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1660
Oil WTI CFD: 98
Copper CFD: 345
US Dollar CFD: 79.50
EURUSD 1.32
AUDUSD 1.072
Dow Jones CFD 11,954
S&P500 CFD: 1230
FTSE 100 CFD: 5418
SPI CFD 4183
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- A negative reaction to last week's European sovereign-debt summit by credit-ratings firms sent U.S. stocks sharply lower Monday, erasing all of the stock-market gains that followed the summit Friday.Technical Analysis CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1660
The Gold follows stock on another possible down grading of the Euro zone.
The corrective pattern sitting on 1700 breaks lowers i.e. wave two and now a strong small third wave is unfolding, the next level and the first target is MediumLevel 1650 however lower is expected, we are now simply counting five waves down.
If you have added to shorts under 1700 you can cover a percentage at 1650 and add again as 1650 becomes the resistance as wave four, the wave four could bounce back to 1672 -80 this will depend where wave three completes e.g. on or below 1650. Also be aware of the wave count on the Euro and SP500 as these two will be moving together and the Dollar in the same structure but up
Silver has also made the break lower look to add when 30 becomes the resistance, 28 will be the first other level to add also, be expect a retest from 28 to 30Oil WTI CFD: 98
While Oil is below resistance 103 (group1) and above 95 support, its trading within its range basically sticking to 100 (TL1) Oil is being pulled by stock to a degree and current move down with commodities, Indices and currencies, we have labelled this move down in the SP500 and Euro as corrective for the short term but can easily be the beginning of the larger move down. Refer to the Oil charts we are nearly at the point of considering the top of Wave (2) as the last high around 102 however we do need to confirm the move down as five waves (impulse) first. We can look to scale in short on the second failed retest of 100 and under 98, there is risk in this as it would not have the evidence of an impulse wave at that stage, any way we have time, let’s look to the other markets even base metals to look for confirmation of further downsideBase Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.45-
US Nickel: Last: 8.27-
US Zinc: Last: 0.86-
US Aluminium Last: 0.83-Copper CFD: 345
Copper is moving in much the same pattern as the Euro over the last month, so with the Euro we are counting the move down as a wave B, so the move down in copper such also be counted as a Wave (b) at least for the time being until proven wrong, copper will eventually break lower, it’s just that we are in a larger correction from September and sideways corrections can get complicated but they always break lower once completed.
The 350 has and is the balance line and trading under this Midpoint Levels bring softness however it would require a few retests to confirm the 350 as resistance and this can come from the 340 or 345, as mentioned the move down is counting the same as the Euro i.e. corrective so we should see a move up to 372 but remember the larger pattern is down and may not reach that price it can break lower, but first let’s see how the Euro tests the old lows around the 13150. US BHP dropped from 75 to 72 over night.Technical Analysis Forex
US Dollar CFD: 79.50
The main trend is up however two possibilities for the short term, one, is the price move straight above 80 (TL8) in to Group1 to create the first high above the level then a correction back into 80 or the second possibility is the price reacts again at 80 and moves back to 78 and then pushes up above 80 as in the 4 Hour Dollar chart.
The TradingLevels Classic pattern at TL8, The dollar has already touched on 80 back in Oct, the ‘Arrival’ then the ‘Reaction’ then ‘Support’ on 75 and now the ‘First High Above the Level’ then the correction
EURUSD 1.32
Technical Analysis:: Retesting Sept lows 13145 would have to expect a bounce, the Dollar at 80 a reaction of some degree?
The 134 is now the market resistance and the price is working with 132 this is the pivot within Subgroup1 and the 130 is Minor Group1, so its Subgroup1 of Minor Group1, this is what the support has been here since 2008, the 130 is Minor Group1 of 1.00 It takes a while to get you head around the anatomy of Group1 but it’s worth it as it defines support and resistance in this region
Elliott Wave: Wave B down to 132 or the larger move down Wave (iii) Either way the weekly and monthly trends are down
Trading Strategy: Choose your degree of structure to trade and set your rules around that. A monthly Robo trade set up has just triggered.AUDUSD 1.072
Technical Analysis: Expect support and bounce from 1.00 the Elliott charts also show support for a wave count at 1.00
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart)
Trading Strategy: You have to trade the sublevel being so close to 1.00 (TL1) the other point here is that 1.00 is the line in the sand for the market being positive or negative, currently the price is retesting 1.00 for support and it can move through 1.00 to 98 it would only be on a few failed retests of 1.00 and a move under 98 the first MinorLevel that we would consider the larger picture weak, the price range since Oct has been narrowing into 1.00 and the next main trend will come out of this narrowing trading range and that’s the trade we want.Indices
Dow Jones CFD 11,954
Technical Analysis:: 12,000 is still the line in the sand and the price is still developing around it and will continue to do so, it will end up as support or resistance, in the meantime we can work the internal wave count
Elliott Wave: Yes the move down can be bearish but it can also be corrective, we simply have to wait for a certain point in the unfolding structure, I can explain this more clearly in the video
Trading Strategy: Wait, the move down last night needs to complete its five waves down into 11900 or below, then a move up above 12000. We don’t know if the pattern form the higher around 12300on the 8/12th is an abc structure down or the beginnings of the larger impulse, we should know by the end of the next session or the following session and then be able to take positions either long to above 12300 or short for the long term Intermediate Wave (3) down which is quite exciting for bear traders as Wave (3) is the Grizzly Bear stuff! But don’t get too excited we need confirmation first and that can be the 12,000 as retested resistance if not then we expect one more new high in the Dow and maybe not in the SP500 or the NasdaqS&P500 CFD: 1230
Technical Analysis:: SubGroup1 (SG1-1210|1220|1230) if the price locks under the SG1 pivot 1220 as resistance then the price is trapped to 1200 and a larger bearish pattern is unfolding, there are now two levels of resistance SG2 1272 and the Midpoint 1250 that hasn’t been retested, we have a wave count that should touch on 1220 then move up above 1250 and higher, however the price back at 1200 helps create a top being in place
Wave count: ABC correction down to 1220 then up?
Trading Strategy: The price pattern from the high of the 8th is currently in three waves down i.e. bullish corrective, we would need to see five waves (impulse) down to confirm a top being in place. It is important to bring as many markets as possible into the current picture such as the Euro which has the same pattern as the SP and the SP has the same pattern as the US Dollar inverted, the base metals as the same and so are the treasuries so we need to see which one starts the lead, the Nasdaq has a habit of leading to the down side so we can observe that and also the Dax that cannot get back above 6180 (618)FTSE 100 CFD: 5418 Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: expect a move below 5400
Elliott Wave: count five waves down from the last high 5565, the price is close to the end of wave three down, so four and five to go
Trading Strategy: expect a bounce as wave four on 5400 and wave five down into 5372
SPI CFD 4183 Technical Analysis:
Technical Analysis:: The 4272 help perfectly now the 4200 is the pivot in Minor Group1 and if that becomes the retested resistance then the trend is down, the retest will take time, as the 61.8% retracement level target is 4100 so it can reach 4100 then climb back above 4200 as support, we just have to observe it at that point in time.
Elliott Wave: Intraday trend down from last night is completing five waves as is the SP500 and other markets, once this is completed expect a bounce
Trading Strategy: Trade the sublevels and watch the Dow futures cfds during our trading time for leads, also the Euro and the US Dollar as it tassels with 80Technical Analysis: Summary
Well there was no steam after the smallish 186 move up in the Dow yesterday; however we are not better off in having a larger direction as yet and may take another two session to see evidence, this is the picture; in the US markets the high on the 8th and the following pattern on the intraday chart is in three waves down, abc corrective pullback that will complete in the next session, or the three wave abc will turn into five waves ‘Impulse’ wave this would give us the direction down, as five waves in the opposite direction gives us another five waves after and small corrective move and in this case would be enough to call a top is place, both wave counts carry equal weight, so we have to wait. Going long or short right now can have us trapped
Trading QuoteThe trading system gives the trader the ability to control his or her emotional states rather than allowing them to control him. A system is a disciplined method for organizing dynamic, ever-changing market phenomena. Howard Abell
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD FPI m/m -1.3%
10:50am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 0.5% -0.7%
11:01am GBP RICS House Price Balance -25% -24%
11:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 2
11:30am AUD Housing Starts q/q -0.7% -4.7%
5:30pm EUR French CPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%
5:45pm CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
8:30pm GBP CPI y/y 4.8% 5.0%
8:30pm GBP RPI y/y 5.1% 5.4%
8:30pm GBP Core CPI y/y 3.3% 3.4%
8:30pm GBP DCLG HPI y/y -0.9% -1.4%
9:00pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -55.7 -55.2
9:00pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -60.3 -59.1
12:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.6%
12:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.5%
2:00am USD Business Inventories m/m 0.5% 0.0%
Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 42.5 40.6
6:15am USD FOMC Statement
6:15am USD Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Free Stuff on Technical Analysis is available on TradingLounge.com.au site!
About TradingLounge:- One of Australia’s leading Technical Analysis companies that created the TradingLevels Technical Analysis concept. This Technical Analysis Report covers the international market drivers Dow Jones, SP500, FSTE, DAX, SPI, AUDUSD, EURUSD, US Dollar, Copper, Oil, Gold, understanding the market drives assists us in CFD Trading and Share Trading for the ASX NYSE NASDAQ Analyst Peter Mathers TradingLounge.com.au FREE TRIAL
Technical Analysis Report
Dow Jones – 11,973 -1.73%
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1660
Oil WTI CFD: 98
Copper CFD: 345
US Dollar CFD: 79.50
EURUSD 1.32
AUDUSD 1.072
Dow Jones CFD 11,954
S&P500 CFD: 1230
FTSE 100 CFD: 5418
SPI CFD 4183
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- A negative reaction to last week's European sovereign-debt summit by credit-ratings firms sent U.S. stocks sharply lower Monday, erasing all of the stock-market gains that followed the summit Friday.Technical Analysis CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1660
The Gold follows stock on another possible down grading of the Euro zone.
The corrective pattern sitting on 1700 breaks lowers i.e. wave two and now a strong small third wave is unfolding, the next level and the first target is MediumLevel 1650 however lower is expected, we are now simply counting five waves down.
If you have added to shorts under 1700 you can cover a percentage at 1650 and add again as 1650 becomes the resistance as wave four, the wave four could bounce back to 1672 -80 this will depend where wave three completes e.g. on or below 1650. Also be aware of the wave count on the Euro and SP500 as these two will be moving together and the Dollar in the same structure but up
Silver has also made the break lower look to add when 30 becomes the resistance, 28 will be the first other level to add also, be expect a retest from 28 to 30Oil WTI CFD: 98
While Oil is below resistance 103 (group1) and above 95 support, its trading within its range basically sticking to 100 (TL1) Oil is being pulled by stock to a degree and current move down with commodities, Indices and currencies, we have labelled this move down in the SP500 and Euro as corrective for the short term but can easily be the beginning of the larger move down. Refer to the Oil charts we are nearly at the point of considering the top of Wave (2) as the last high around 102 however we do need to confirm the move down as five waves (impulse) first. We can look to scale in short on the second failed retest of 100 and under 98, there is risk in this as it would not have the evidence of an impulse wave at that stage, any way we have time, let’s look to the other markets even base metals to look for confirmation of further downsideBase Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.45-
US Nickel: Last: 8.27-
US Zinc: Last: 0.86-
US Aluminium Last: 0.83-Copper CFD: 345
Copper is moving in much the same pattern as the Euro over the last month, so with the Euro we are counting the move down as a wave B, so the move down in copper such also be counted as a Wave (b) at least for the time being until proven wrong, copper will eventually break lower, it’s just that we are in a larger correction from September and sideways corrections can get complicated but they always break lower once completed.
The 350 has and is the balance line and trading under this Midpoint Levels bring softness however it would require a few retests to confirm the 350 as resistance and this can come from the 340 or 345, as mentioned the move down is counting the same as the Euro i.e. corrective so we should see a move up to 372 but remember the larger pattern is down and may not reach that price it can break lower, but first let’s see how the Euro tests the old lows around the 13150. US BHP dropped from 75 to 72 over night.Technical Analysis Forex
US Dollar CFD: 79.50
The main trend is up however two possibilities for the short term, one, is the price move straight above 80 (TL8) in to Group1 to create the first high above the level then a correction back into 80 or the second possibility is the price reacts again at 80 and moves back to 78 and then pushes up above 80 as in the 4 Hour Dollar chart.
The TradingLevels Classic pattern at TL8, The dollar has already touched on 80 back in Oct, the ‘Arrival’ then the ‘Reaction’ then ‘Support’ on 75 and now the ‘First High Above the Level’ then the correction
EURUSD 1.32
Technical Analysis:: Retesting Sept lows 13145 would have to expect a bounce, the Dollar at 80 a reaction of some degree?
The 134 is now the market resistance and the price is working with 132 this is the pivot within Subgroup1 and the 130 is Minor Group1, so its Subgroup1 of Minor Group1, this is what the support has been here since 2008, the 130 is Minor Group1 of 1.00 It takes a while to get you head around the anatomy of Group1 but it’s worth it as it defines support and resistance in this region
Elliott Wave: Wave B down to 132 or the larger move down Wave (iii) Either way the weekly and monthly trends are down
Trading Strategy: Choose your degree of structure to trade and set your rules around that. A monthly Robo trade set up has just triggered.AUDUSD 1.072
Technical Analysis: Expect support and bounce from 1.00 the Elliott charts also show support for a wave count at 1.00
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart)
Trading Strategy: You have to trade the sublevel being so close to 1.00 (TL1) the other point here is that 1.00 is the line in the sand for the market being positive or negative, currently the price is retesting 1.00 for support and it can move through 1.00 to 98 it would only be on a few failed retests of 1.00 and a move under 98 the first MinorLevel that we would consider the larger picture weak, the price range since Oct has been narrowing into 1.00 and the next main trend will come out of this narrowing trading range and that’s the trade we want.Indices
Dow Jones CFD 11,954
Technical Analysis:: 12,000 is still the line in the sand and the price is still developing around it and will continue to do so, it will end up as support or resistance, in the meantime we can work the internal wave count
Elliott Wave: Yes the move down can be bearish but it can also be corrective, we simply have to wait for a certain point in the unfolding structure, I can explain this more clearly in the video
Trading Strategy: Wait, the move down last night needs to complete its five waves down into 11900 or below, then a move up above 12000. We don’t know if the pattern form the higher around 12300on the 8/12th is an abc structure down or the beginnings of the larger impulse, we should know by the end of the next session or the following session and then be able to take positions either long to above 12300 or short for the long term Intermediate Wave (3) down which is quite exciting for bear traders as Wave (3) is the Grizzly Bear stuff! But don’t get too excited we need confirmation first and that can be the 12,000 as retested resistance if not then we expect one more new high in the Dow and maybe not in the SP500 or the NasdaqS&P500 CFD: 1230
Technical Analysis:: SubGroup1 (SG1-1210|1220|1230) if the price locks under the SG1 pivot 1220 as resistance then the price is trapped to 1200 and a larger bearish pattern is unfolding, there are now two levels of resistance SG2 1272 and the Midpoint 1250 that hasn’t been retested, we have a wave count that should touch on 1220 then move up above 1250 and higher, however the price back at 1200 helps create a top being in place
Wave count: ABC correction down to 1220 then up?
Trading Strategy: The price pattern from the high of the 8th is currently in three waves down i.e. bullish corrective, we would need to see five waves (impulse) down to confirm a top being in place. It is important to bring as many markets as possible into the current picture such as the Euro which has the same pattern as the SP and the SP has the same pattern as the US Dollar inverted, the base metals as the same and so are the treasuries so we need to see which one starts the lead, the Nasdaq has a habit of leading to the down side so we can observe that and also the Dax that cannot get back above 6180 (618)FTSE 100 CFD: 5418 Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: expect a move below 5400
Elliott Wave: count five waves down from the last high 5565, the price is close to the end of wave three down, so four and five to go
Trading Strategy: expect a bounce as wave four on 5400 and wave five down into 5372
SPI CFD 4183 Technical Analysis:
Technical Analysis:: The 4272 help perfectly now the 4200 is the pivot in Minor Group1 and if that becomes the retested resistance then the trend is down, the retest will take time, as the 61.8% retracement level target is 4100 so it can reach 4100 then climb back above 4200 as support, we just have to observe it at that point in time.
Elliott Wave: Intraday trend down from last night is completing five waves as is the SP500 and other markets, once this is completed expect a bounce
Trading Strategy: Trade the sublevels and watch the Dow futures cfds during our trading time for leads, also the Euro and the US Dollar as it tassels with 80Technical Analysis: Summary
Well there was no steam after the smallish 186 move up in the Dow yesterday; however we are not better off in having a larger direction as yet and may take another two session to see evidence, this is the picture; in the US markets the high on the 8th and the following pattern on the intraday chart is in three waves down, abc corrective pullback that will complete in the next session, or the three wave abc will turn into five waves ‘Impulse’ wave this would give us the direction down, as five waves in the opposite direction gives us another five waves after and small corrective move and in this case would be enough to call a top is place, both wave counts carry equal weight, so we have to wait. Going long or short right now can have us trapped
Trading QuoteThe trading system gives the trader the ability to control his or her emotional states rather than allowing them to control him. A system is a disciplined method for organizing dynamic, ever-changing market phenomena. Howard Abell
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD FPI m/m -1.3%
10:50am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 0.5% -0.7%
11:01am GBP RICS House Price Balance -25% -24%
11:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 2
11:30am AUD Housing Starts q/q -0.7% -4.7%
5:30pm EUR French CPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%
5:45pm CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
8:30pm GBP CPI y/y 4.8% 5.0%
8:30pm GBP RPI y/y 5.1% 5.4%
8:30pm GBP Core CPI y/y 3.3% 3.4%
8:30pm GBP DCLG HPI y/y -0.9% -1.4%
9:00pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -55.7 -55.2
9:00pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -60.3 -59.1
12:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.6%
12:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.5%
2:00am USD Business Inventories m/m 0.5% 0.0%
Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 42.5 40.6
6:15am USD FOMC Statement
6:15am USD Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Free Stuff on Technical Analysis is available on TradingLounge.com.au site!
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