Video; http://youtu.be/JT0HiwUAsQw
Technical Analysis
Dow Jones 12,660 -0.58%
Base Metals Steady
US Gold CFD: 1724
Oil WTI: 100.75
Copper CFD: 389
US Dollar: 79.40
EURUSD 1.3120
AUDUSD 1.0630
Dow Jones CFD 12,742
S&P500 CFD: 1316
FTSE 100 CFD: 5770
DAX CFD: 6500
SPI CFD 4271
Trading Education
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stock indexes ended mixed Friday after a reading on domestic economic growth fell short of expectations
US Gold CFD: 1738
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The supply and the 78.6% are close to 1750 the Midpoint so expect selling there.
The first resistance is SG2 1665|1772|1780 with the 1772 being the important level.
Then next level is the (mTL8) 1800 the profit taking number, these number are important when you start looking at the wave count in stocks like NCM as you can easily count five waves up from their lows, so they will also go through and abc correction
Elliott Wave: There are two counts we are tracking the bullish count and that’s a large impulse wave up to 2,000 (TL2) as on our Elliott charts.
The other is the bearish count that would complete the trend up under the 1,800, essentially turning with the US Indices and the Euro to the downside with the US Dollar up.
Silver: Possible next top, counting the five waves up off the 30.00 would be around the 3450 to 3500 make sure you lock in profits close to 35.00 if we are wrong, then re-enter using the 3500 as the tested support
Oil WTI: 99.68
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Long with a break above 101 and short under 98.
Elliott Wave: The pattern we have been tracking is still working its self into a corner and will make a break this week either way, so oil traders get ready for being long or short, I will explain the pattern in the video.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.86+
US Nickel: Last: 9.80+
US Zinc: Last: 0.96-
US Aluminium Last: 1.00-
Copper CFD: 389
Technical Analysis:
Will meet 400 the MediumLevel this week and stop trending for a while, however the price should stay above the SG2 372 and eventually edge higher and this price action will reflect in Material sectors through the world. Another guide stick is US BHP as its slowly developing support on the MajorLevel 80 (TL8)
Forex
The euro increased amid optimism Greece was making progress in debt-restructuring talks with bondholders.
US Dollar: 78.90
Technical Analysis:
The Wave A down is still in progress and the Wave A up in the Euro in progress on the premise of the ECB sorting out Greeks debt, if and when these talks show weakness we will see the Wave B up retesting 80.
Lower targets would be the 78.50 to 78 which is close to the 50/62% retracement level, this leaves the Euro at 133+
EURUSD 1.3218
TradingLevels: The Euro is trending up nicely, expect a small abc corrective pattern across 132 then a push higher
Elliott Wave: Euro reached even lower levels seen yesterday, and now minor fall from the top appears to be wave (a), only first leg of a corrective pull-back, which will probably test previous swing highs around 1.0340-1.0370.
Trading Strategies: wait for the abc correction at 132, the scale in long through SG1 to 133
AUDUSD 1.0655
TradingLevels: Resistances 1.0772 – 1.08.
Elliott Wave: We still think that reversal from a top is corrective, part of a larger incomplete bullish trend, but we are not sure if wave four is already finished. Simply because the minor decline from 1.0686 can be counted in five waves, so it’s likely only one leg of a corrective pull-back that may retest 38.2%.
Trading Strategies: understand the comments on Elliott then use the sublevels. Support on the Midpoint 10650 is the key to higher ground and you know the 10672 is what you need to get past to add to the trade
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,663
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The expected reaction at 12,800 mTL8 is under way , we need to wait and see if the move down becomes impulsive or corrective
A move under 12500 and the trend up is broken.
Elliott Wave: The DJI appears to have five waves down, the Futures appear to have three waves down, so we are going to have to see more patterns.
Trading Strategies: Only go long with 12720 (72) as support, otherwise its further down and a move under the last low 12630 would be the short or even 12650 as retested resistance
S&P500 CFD: 1316
TradingLevels: Expect a move back to 1300, if however the price finds support on top of SG1 1330 then this would create a move to 1350 the Midpoint
Elliott wave: Back to 1300 - 1290 (38.2% Retracement)
Trading Strategies: Expect choppy price action between 1310 and 1300
FTSE 100 CFD: 5728
TradingLevels: The reaction from 5800 (mTL8) is unfolding, day trading support are 5720 and 5700.
Elliott Wave: It’s still too early, but it appears five small waves down from 5800 is unfolding, that would mean a bounce off 5700 in three waves (abc Zigzag pattern) back to supply at 5765 SG2 and then down again in five waves. Seeing if the Dax find support on 6500 the MediumLevel will be influencing on the bullish side
Trading Strategies: If your short from the5772 then cover at 5700 and wait.
DAX CFD: 6515
Technical Analysis: Give the price a few sessions at 6500 MediumLevel, lets simply see if this level develops support or as resistance. The real support is still at 6400, so the Dax is positive.
SPI CFD 4282
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: 4300 is the top of MinorGroup1 and support on this level creates the 4500 target price point, this would be in line with Shanghai reaching 2500 but first finding support on 2300 which is also a MinorLevel Group1
Elliott Wave: The main trend is up, but its dealing with old highs at 4300, so expect further corrective patterns first.
Day Trading: Use the 4272 as support or resistance, be on the right side of this sublevel
Summary
US Indices can have a top in place now, as we have been observing the wave structures ending impulsing sub waves finalise. That said we now need evidence of this and that would be seeing sets of impulse waves (five waves) edge down, another way to view this is a break of 12,500 on the Dow, sure that’s quite a way down, but it does break the main trend structure up. The main event next week in the US is of course Facebook coming on the market and this will be the catalyst for any moves in either direction, from my limited readings about the Facebook subject its earning do not match its anting value and therefore has a element of failure as a float, I guess the big bucks will see this overvalued aspect but there is probably enough smaller players to make up the hype, any way an interesting even next week.
China is back from holidays on Monday and should continue to lift higher with the target at 2500; the base metals are still trending nicely helping up the ASX, however the 4300 is required as support to get to the 4500 target and finding support on 4300 can actually take two weeks as its dealing with old highs, so a pullback at 4300 would be normal.
Europe is all about the Greek bailout talks, the results of this will be in the Euro, the Elliott count would be looking for support on 130 then pushing to 132 and then rolling over south.
Trading Quote
If you don’t have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
Monday January 30, 2012
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m -0.4% 0.7%
All Day EUR EU Economic Summit
12:30am USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.1%
12:30am USD Personal Spending m/m 0.2% 0.1%
12:30am USD Personal Income m/m 0.4% 0.1%
Australian Corporate Calendar
Navitas Ltd (NVT.AU) Interim 2012 Results presentation
Australian Worldwide Exploration Ltd (AWE.AU) December Quarterly Report
Navitas Ltd (NVT.AU) Interim 2012 Results
Origin Energy Ltd (ORG.AU) Quarterly Production Report
Resource Generation (RES.AU) December Quarterly Report
Woolworths Ltd (WOW.AU) Q2 2012 Sales
Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (KCN.AU) December Quarterly Report
Lynas Corporation (LYC.AU) December Activities Report
Ceramic Fuel Cells Ltd (CFU.AU) Trading statement
Cockatoo Coal Ltd (COK.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited SAR.AU Quarterly Activities Report
Aston Resources Ltd (AZT.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Panoramic Resources Limited (PAN.AU) December Quarterly Report
Cudeco Limited (CDU.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Bathurst Resources Limited (BTU.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Dart Energy Limited (DEGEF) Quarterly Activities Report
Rex Minerals Limited (RXM.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Integra Mining Limited (IGR.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Ramelius Resources Limited December Quarterly Activities Report
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
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Showing posts with label Technical Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Technical Analysis. Show all posts
Monday, 30 January 2012
Tuesday, 24 January 2012
Technical Analysis
To Watch Video on Technical Analysis Visit Us on Youtube http://youtu.be/xZYM420Fa08
Description:
TradingLounge’s Peter Mathers Technical Analyst outlines Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies using the Tradinglevels Pattern Recognition Elliott Wave as Trading Education.
This Day Trading report is only the lead in for the actual mechanical Robo Day Trading for the Australia, US and UK Markets, Forex Elliott Wave Technical Analysis is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
Technical Analysis
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks held losses as investors mulled Greece's debt-swap negotiations and a meeting between euro-zone financial ministers.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1677
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The overhead trendline from Sept and Dec last year on the daily chart are also the resistance now at 1680 (SG2) There is also another over head trend line on the hour chart cutting into the area. The key for direction is simply to allow the price time to develop at 1672 as support or resistance. Essentially the move up from the MediumLevel 1650 is testing new highs within Subgroup2 1665|1672|1680 and the pivot 1672 as support or resistance is the key for the next direction.
Elliott Wave: As you can see on the 1 hour Gold Chart the Elliott count has a completion here at the 1680. As always you would need to see an impulse wave down (five waves) for the start of a down trend. From a trading point of view understand the price is is SG2 only if it was out of SG2 to the downside would you start shorting, you can scale in with a failed retest of 1672 then add on the failed retest of 1665 cover shorts close to 1650, that’s if the price moves through these moves, for the upside the 1672 as support then adding on 1680 with the view of getting to 1700, you need to trade what you see and use support and resistance as your trading friends, how you handle the money is how you make it, defend and attack at the right time, a trader needs to learn to defend first only then will you know when to attack
Silver: Expect a corrective pattern at the 32.00, expect three swings then a push higher to 33.00 as the strong move up would be a wave three, so the correction at 32.00 would have to be wave four and you know they are sideways. Complicated and time consuming, but they are the foundation for the next trend up the fifth wave, which should be on lower volume they the third wave
Oil WTI: 99
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The retest from MinorLevel (mTL8) 98.00 to 100 (TL1) is now underway as expected, so we wait for this to play out as support or resistance, the short can be a move back under 98.00 and a long trade can be support on 100, you can improve on the short trade.
Elliott Wave: The retest of 100, if it’s correction then it will be in three waves if its bullish then five waves and so far it appears five waves developing on the 10 minute chart but this can be just the Wave A of an ABC corrective rally. I will explain in the video so you will know what to look out for.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.77+
US Nickel: Last: 9.20-
US Zinc: Last: 0.61-
US Aluminium Last: 0.99+
Copper CFD: 377
Technical Analysis:
As you know we are seeing a wave four corrective pattern unfold within Subgroup2 (SG2 365|372|380) this is time consuming as long as the price stays above the 360 the trend up is fine, the price is likely to stay with SG2 but with China closed for a week there may be less support from the Shanghai Copper Futures contracts.
US BHP at the Major TradingLevel TL8 | 80.00 is going to struggle and probably retract to some degree so taking part profit at high prices is sensible trading, it is likely to see copper back at 365 during this corrective process. In Australia it’s the small stocks (XSO) that will have the wider trading ranges and the ASX Material sector will also correct at the MediumLevel 11,500. So don’t expect the Materials to trend up, it’s more of a profit taking, especially while China is on holidays this week. Another small but important point is that the SP500 move down seems to be developing in five waves, so a correction there too
Forex
US Dollar: 80.30
Technical Analysis:
Will the 80 (MajorLevel TL8) and 1.30 on the Euro be the turn?
We can expect for the next session or two that the price will retest at these levels, they will move above and below. The US Dollar high roughly around 81.78 (Index) can see a natural swing that distance below 80 that would be close to the first MinorLevel 98.00, there are supports at 79.50 and 79.00, but in the slightly bigger picture with the US trending up we are actually seeing the price work its way through TL8 in the Classic TradingLevels pattern., so we have just had the first high above the level and now the correction, the ABC correction, the move down is just the Wave A, so it’s the Wave C that may take it down to 78 (mTL8)
EURUSD 1.30
TradingLevels: When working with one level also include the next degree lower above and below the level you are working with, because the smaller levels above and below are the first support and resistance that you can work a trade from. So at 1.30 Subgroup1 above 1.3010|1.3020|1.3030 is SG1 and below 1.30 is Subgroup2 SG2 1.2980|1.2972|1.2965 Expect the current price to move around these levels
Elliott Wave: Understanding the ABC corrective pattern on the US Dollar obviously helps understanding the ABC pattern on the Euro
Trading Strategies: The Wave A up is probably completed and should start to focus on the Wave B on the charts it’s a move down to 128 but because the price is at the 130 the Wave B corrective pattern may stay closer to 1.30 and that is a move back to 129 it would be advisable to also observe the SP500 wave structure as it moves back into 1300
Ps. Looking at the US dollar there can be another small move down, so the Euro can move up to 13072 before starting the Wave B, support on 1330 creates the long.
AUDUSD 1.0530
TradingLevels: Expect a larger corrective pattern across 1.05
Elliott Wave: The current high can be the top of the current trend, expect a move back to 105 and below to 10472 SG2 zone
Trading Strategies: Short, but expect the price to bounce around in SG1 10510|10520|10530 and 105 bounce as buyer will be sitting there. In the slightly bigger picture the current support is back at 104 and can be tested
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,700
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The price reached the lower end of SG2 12765|12772|12780 it’s the 12,772 that is the resistance followed by 12,800.
Elliott Wave: The move down appears to be impulsive, so a retest of the trend down then another trend down, this can be seen as an ABC correction or a more series top in play
Trading Strategies: This is a corrective pattern at 12700 the first support is SG2 12672, second support 12650 We have to expect a minimum of three swings at this current high before we can judge if a top is in play, we can see from the Currencies that a reasonable correction can occur here
S&P500 CFD: 1315
TradingLevels: Expecting the 1320 as resistance with the price retesting 1300 even lower at 1280 first support followed by 1272, whatever happens a corrective abc pattern at 1300 is probable in line with the Euro and the AUD
Elliott Wave: ABC correction starting back into 1300
Trading Strategies: Trade the sublevels and MicroLevels while the pattern is in SG1 and 1300 with the likelihood of a larger corrective pattern unfolding. On the flip side support on 1320 would see the price at 1330 but the 1320 support must be tested, retest.
FTSE 100 CFD: 5777
TradingLevels: The price has reached the target 5572 SG2 it will either corrected here in line with the US markets and currencies or spike to 5800 and correct.
Elliott Wave: Is this a top, well if the 5772 becomes the retested resistance then that’s a start, allow three swings across 5772 then look for support or resistance. That is from the high, so we are looking at the first one down and now the beginnings of the fir one up, that’s two. After three then look for support or resistance at 5772
Trading Strategies: Allow the price time to dance around in SG2 waiting for 5772 to become the support or resistance and then trade in that direction
DAX CFD: 6425
Technical Analysis: Resistance MediumLevel 6500, If the Dax slips under 6400 then weakness is in. While it’s above the 6400 the trend is up to the resistance and MediumLevel 6500
SPI CFD 4233
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: SG1 4210|4220|4230 is still the support above the 4200, however the Midpoint 4250 is creating the strong resistance, we don’t have the Chinese market open this week for the lead, and now the US markets and Currencies have finished a particular Elliott wave pattern up and are likely to have a larger correction. When working with SG1 the 4220 is the pivot so use this as support or resistance to assess the bias resistance negative support positive.
Elliott Wave: The pattern above 4200 is very much the same as the AUD when it was last at 104, meaning it can get messy here
Day Trading: The pattern above 4200 is corrective, but it can get larger and more messy, I don’t know where the lead will come from to move it up the N225 is trending strongly as are other Asian markets, but the ASX is being lazy. The main trend is up, but expect small corrections. The PPI figures on Monday were basically flat so its normal to expect the CPI figures on Wednesday to be flat to slightly lower, basically no shock to the markets
Summary
China being close for the week the leads will come from the US unless the ECB meeting on 26th is negative, Greece can be the catalyst for a pullback.
US, we have been tracking the Elliott count up and figured that the current trend was ending, the Dow target was 12772 and the SP500 1320, the sharp sell off last session helps confirm that the top of this current trend is completed and a larger correction (pull back) can now take place.
The US Dollar is in an ABC correction down and the Euro in an ABC up, they both have completed or nearly completed their Wave A of their ABC corrections, there Wave B will coincide with the US and European pull backs that are likely to unfold.
The Asian markets are bullish, except the ASX which is being quite lazy and with China closed and the US possibly correcting will cause the ASX200 to stick to 4200
Weekly bullish Cycle was also broken on Monday by not having the internal momentum to move higher, this is a sign of weakness.
To keep it simple, allow the Dow to flicker across 12,700 in the next session and if the price finds the 12700 as resistance then the correction is starting if its support then the pull back is minor.
It is a good idea to lock is more profit on the Daily Robo long trades while the prices are higher. Defence is the first action to take, if the closing price on the daily bar closes lower then the open, then reduce, also if the opening price opens lower than the previous close reduce. There are a few more videos on the Robo on the Robo Strategy page, I still need to make more on the attack side and the money management which I plan to do shortly as I would like to create a clear path for using the Daily Robo.
Trading Quote
Most of traders lose because they don’t have a winning strategy. Apart from this even among those traders who do, many don’t follow their strategy. Trading puts pressure on weaker human traits and seems to seek out each individual’s Achilles’ heel. - GILL BLAKE
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
10:00am AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.6%
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate <0.10% <0.10%
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
6:00pm CHF UBS Consumption Indicator 0.81
7:00pm EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.3 48.9
7:00pm EUR French Flash Services PMI 50.5 50.3
7:30pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.1 48.4
7:30pm EUR German Flash Services PMI 52.6 52.4
8:00pm EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.4 46.9
8:00pm EUR Flash Services PMI 49.1 48.8
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings
8:30pm GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 12.7B 15.2B
9:00pm EUR Industrial New Orders m/m -2.1% 1.8%
12:30am CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.7%
12:30am CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 1.0%
1:00am EUR Belgium NBB Business Climate -10.1 -10.6
2:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 6 3
3:15am CHF Gov Board Member Danthine Speaks
7:00am GBP BOE Gov King Speaks
Australian Corporate Calendar
Whitehaven Coal WHC. December Activities Report
PanAust Ltd PNA. December Quarterly Report
Ferro Metals Interim Management Statement & Production
Kingsgate Consolidated KCN December Quarterly Report
Medusa Mining Ltd (MDSMF) December Quarterly Report
Newcrest Mining Ltd NCM December Quarterly Results
Resource Generation RES December Quarterly Report
G.U.D. Holdings GUD Interim 2012 Results
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
Description:
TradingLounge’s Peter Mathers Technical Analyst outlines Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies using the Tradinglevels Pattern Recognition Elliott Wave as Trading Education.
This Day Trading report is only the lead in for the actual mechanical Robo Day Trading for the Australia, US and UK Markets, Forex Elliott Wave Technical Analysis is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
Technical Analysis
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks held losses as investors mulled Greece's debt-swap negotiations and a meeting between euro-zone financial ministers.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1677
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The overhead trendline from Sept and Dec last year on the daily chart are also the resistance now at 1680 (SG2) There is also another over head trend line on the hour chart cutting into the area. The key for direction is simply to allow the price time to develop at 1672 as support or resistance. Essentially the move up from the MediumLevel 1650 is testing new highs within Subgroup2 1665|1672|1680 and the pivot 1672 as support or resistance is the key for the next direction.
Elliott Wave: As you can see on the 1 hour Gold Chart the Elliott count has a completion here at the 1680. As always you would need to see an impulse wave down (five waves) for the start of a down trend. From a trading point of view understand the price is is SG2 only if it was out of SG2 to the downside would you start shorting, you can scale in with a failed retest of 1672 then add on the failed retest of 1665 cover shorts close to 1650, that’s if the price moves through these moves, for the upside the 1672 as support then adding on 1680 with the view of getting to 1700, you need to trade what you see and use support and resistance as your trading friends, how you handle the money is how you make it, defend and attack at the right time, a trader needs to learn to defend first only then will you know when to attack
Silver: Expect a corrective pattern at the 32.00, expect three swings then a push higher to 33.00 as the strong move up would be a wave three, so the correction at 32.00 would have to be wave four and you know they are sideways. Complicated and time consuming, but they are the foundation for the next trend up the fifth wave, which should be on lower volume they the third wave
Oil WTI: 99
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The retest from MinorLevel (mTL8) 98.00 to 100 (TL1) is now underway as expected, so we wait for this to play out as support or resistance, the short can be a move back under 98.00 and a long trade can be support on 100, you can improve on the short trade.
Elliott Wave: The retest of 100, if it’s correction then it will be in three waves if its bullish then five waves and so far it appears five waves developing on the 10 minute chart but this can be just the Wave A of an ABC corrective rally. I will explain in the video so you will know what to look out for.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.77+
US Nickel: Last: 9.20-
US Zinc: Last: 0.61-
US Aluminium Last: 0.99+
Copper CFD: 377
Technical Analysis:
As you know we are seeing a wave four corrective pattern unfold within Subgroup2 (SG2 365|372|380) this is time consuming as long as the price stays above the 360 the trend up is fine, the price is likely to stay with SG2 but with China closed for a week there may be less support from the Shanghai Copper Futures contracts.
US BHP at the Major TradingLevel TL8 | 80.00 is going to struggle and probably retract to some degree so taking part profit at high prices is sensible trading, it is likely to see copper back at 365 during this corrective process. In Australia it’s the small stocks (XSO) that will have the wider trading ranges and the ASX Material sector will also correct at the MediumLevel 11,500. So don’t expect the Materials to trend up, it’s more of a profit taking, especially while China is on holidays this week. Another small but important point is that the SP500 move down seems to be developing in five waves, so a correction there too
Forex
US Dollar: 80.30
Technical Analysis:
Will the 80 (MajorLevel TL8) and 1.30 on the Euro be the turn?
We can expect for the next session or two that the price will retest at these levels, they will move above and below. The US Dollar high roughly around 81.78 (Index) can see a natural swing that distance below 80 that would be close to the first MinorLevel 98.00, there are supports at 79.50 and 79.00, but in the slightly bigger picture with the US trending up we are actually seeing the price work its way through TL8 in the Classic TradingLevels pattern., so we have just had the first high above the level and now the correction, the ABC correction, the move down is just the Wave A, so it’s the Wave C that may take it down to 78 (mTL8)
EURUSD 1.30
TradingLevels: When working with one level also include the next degree lower above and below the level you are working with, because the smaller levels above and below are the first support and resistance that you can work a trade from. So at 1.30 Subgroup1 above 1.3010|1.3020|1.3030 is SG1 and below 1.30 is Subgroup2 SG2 1.2980|1.2972|1.2965 Expect the current price to move around these levels
Elliott Wave: Understanding the ABC corrective pattern on the US Dollar obviously helps understanding the ABC pattern on the Euro
Trading Strategies: The Wave A up is probably completed and should start to focus on the Wave B on the charts it’s a move down to 128 but because the price is at the 130 the Wave B corrective pattern may stay closer to 1.30 and that is a move back to 129 it would be advisable to also observe the SP500 wave structure as it moves back into 1300
Ps. Looking at the US dollar there can be another small move down, so the Euro can move up to 13072 before starting the Wave B, support on 1330 creates the long.
AUDUSD 1.0530
TradingLevels: Expect a larger corrective pattern across 1.05
Elliott Wave: The current high can be the top of the current trend, expect a move back to 105 and below to 10472 SG2 zone
Trading Strategies: Short, but expect the price to bounce around in SG1 10510|10520|10530 and 105 bounce as buyer will be sitting there. In the slightly bigger picture the current support is back at 104 and can be tested
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,700
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The price reached the lower end of SG2 12765|12772|12780 it’s the 12,772 that is the resistance followed by 12,800.
Elliott Wave: The move down appears to be impulsive, so a retest of the trend down then another trend down, this can be seen as an ABC correction or a more series top in play
Trading Strategies: This is a corrective pattern at 12700 the first support is SG2 12672, second support 12650 We have to expect a minimum of three swings at this current high before we can judge if a top is in play, we can see from the Currencies that a reasonable correction can occur here
S&P500 CFD: 1315
TradingLevels: Expecting the 1320 as resistance with the price retesting 1300 even lower at 1280 first support followed by 1272, whatever happens a corrective abc pattern at 1300 is probable in line with the Euro and the AUD
Elliott Wave: ABC correction starting back into 1300
Trading Strategies: Trade the sublevels and MicroLevels while the pattern is in SG1 and 1300 with the likelihood of a larger corrective pattern unfolding. On the flip side support on 1320 would see the price at 1330 but the 1320 support must be tested, retest.
FTSE 100 CFD: 5777
TradingLevels: The price has reached the target 5572 SG2 it will either corrected here in line with the US markets and currencies or spike to 5800 and correct.
Elliott Wave: Is this a top, well if the 5772 becomes the retested resistance then that’s a start, allow three swings across 5772 then look for support or resistance. That is from the high, so we are looking at the first one down and now the beginnings of the fir one up, that’s two. After three then look for support or resistance at 5772
Trading Strategies: Allow the price time to dance around in SG2 waiting for 5772 to become the support or resistance and then trade in that direction
DAX CFD: 6425
Technical Analysis: Resistance MediumLevel 6500, If the Dax slips under 6400 then weakness is in. While it’s above the 6400 the trend is up to the resistance and MediumLevel 6500
SPI CFD 4233
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: SG1 4210|4220|4230 is still the support above the 4200, however the Midpoint 4250 is creating the strong resistance, we don’t have the Chinese market open this week for the lead, and now the US markets and Currencies have finished a particular Elliott wave pattern up and are likely to have a larger correction. When working with SG1 the 4220 is the pivot so use this as support or resistance to assess the bias resistance negative support positive.
Elliott Wave: The pattern above 4200 is very much the same as the AUD when it was last at 104, meaning it can get messy here
Day Trading: The pattern above 4200 is corrective, but it can get larger and more messy, I don’t know where the lead will come from to move it up the N225 is trending strongly as are other Asian markets, but the ASX is being lazy. The main trend is up, but expect small corrections. The PPI figures on Monday were basically flat so its normal to expect the CPI figures on Wednesday to be flat to slightly lower, basically no shock to the markets
Summary
China being close for the week the leads will come from the US unless the ECB meeting on 26th is negative, Greece can be the catalyst for a pullback.
US, we have been tracking the Elliott count up and figured that the current trend was ending, the Dow target was 12772 and the SP500 1320, the sharp sell off last session helps confirm that the top of this current trend is completed and a larger correction (pull back) can now take place.
The US Dollar is in an ABC correction down and the Euro in an ABC up, they both have completed or nearly completed their Wave A of their ABC corrections, there Wave B will coincide with the US and European pull backs that are likely to unfold.
The Asian markets are bullish, except the ASX which is being quite lazy and with China closed and the US possibly correcting will cause the ASX200 to stick to 4200
Weekly bullish Cycle was also broken on Monday by not having the internal momentum to move higher, this is a sign of weakness.
To keep it simple, allow the Dow to flicker across 12,700 in the next session and if the price finds the 12700 as resistance then the correction is starting if its support then the pull back is minor.
It is a good idea to lock is more profit on the Daily Robo long trades while the prices are higher. Defence is the first action to take, if the closing price on the daily bar closes lower then the open, then reduce, also if the opening price opens lower than the previous close reduce. There are a few more videos on the Robo on the Robo Strategy page, I still need to make more on the attack side and the money management which I plan to do shortly as I would like to create a clear path for using the Daily Robo.
Trading Quote
Most of traders lose because they don’t have a winning strategy. Apart from this even among those traders who do, many don’t follow their strategy. Trading puts pressure on weaker human traits and seems to seek out each individual’s Achilles’ heel. - GILL BLAKE
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
10:00am AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.6%
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate <0.10% <0.10%
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
6:00pm CHF UBS Consumption Indicator 0.81
7:00pm EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.3 48.9
7:00pm EUR French Flash Services PMI 50.5 50.3
7:30pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.1 48.4
7:30pm EUR German Flash Services PMI 52.6 52.4
8:00pm EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.4 46.9
8:00pm EUR Flash Services PMI 49.1 48.8
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings
8:30pm GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 12.7B 15.2B
9:00pm EUR Industrial New Orders m/m -2.1% 1.8%
12:30am CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.7%
12:30am CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 1.0%
1:00am EUR Belgium NBB Business Climate -10.1 -10.6
2:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 6 3
3:15am CHF Gov Board Member Danthine Speaks
7:00am GBP BOE Gov King Speaks
Australian Corporate Calendar
Whitehaven Coal WHC. December Activities Report
PanAust Ltd PNA. December Quarterly Report
Ferro Metals Interim Management Statement & Production
Kingsgate Consolidated KCN December Quarterly Report
Medusa Mining Ltd (MDSMF) December Quarterly Report
Newcrest Mining Ltd NCM December Quarterly Results
Resource Generation RES December Quarterly Report
G.U.D. Holdings GUD Interim 2012 Results
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
Wednesday, 18 January 2012
Trading Education
To Watch Video on Technical Analysis Visit Us on Youtube http://youtu.be/aB337_YoZ-U
Description:
Trading Education From the TradingLounge including Technical Analysis, Trading Strategies, Day Trading, Elliott Wave, TradingLevels, Price Volume Action our Trading Education is Friendly and Affordable with 30 Years’ Experience with ASFL There is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
Trading Education
News
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. stocks gained Tuesday after strong economic data in the U.S., China and Germany fuelled optimism over the pace of global economic growth, setting up stock indexes for their highest close in nearly half a year.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1653
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Ok, now we wait for the price to unfold and find support on the MediumLevel 1650. The resistance as you can see is Subgroup2 SG2 1665|1672|1680
Elliott wave The pattern across above below and across 1650 will be a wave four then wave five up to 1672, wave four can get a little complicated, especially when wave two is simple. The alternation between wave structures and in this case corrective, simple then complex is a guide line rather than a rule, but if the wave three is the extended wave then wave four is normally complicated as the large amount of energy from wave three requires balancing and this is also a point for the bigger picture in gold meaning the all-time high in gold to the low on the 29/12/2011 if this is a wave four, then its too simple for a wave four so we should also consider a much larger wave four unfolding, not so much in price but time before pushing higher above 2000
Silver The 61.8% retracement level is 3200
Oil WTI: 100
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Any long trades off 100 require at least two retests of 100, this is important as there is a bearish Elliott count for this rally as a wave two rally. But above a Major level like this the bias will change from negative to positive and IF support is found that forms part of the set up for scaling in long
Elliott wave The 61.8% retracement level is the current high at 101 however another push higher is expected once the retest for support on 100 (TL1) plays out, this will be in line with metals and stock
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.71+
US Nickel: Last: 8.86+
US Zinc: Last: 0.90+
US Aluminium Last: 0.98+
Copper CFD: 367
Technical Analysis
Same - Copper is in an uptrend and should continue, sure it will corrected into and through SG2 365|372|380 and will most likely trade sideways, but the bias is positive and this means the AUSUSD ASX and Asia in general is positive Expect a smaller wave four to unfold from 372 to 365 or 360 the wave four of one lesser degree
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.30
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Now that the price is back down at 81 we have to expect a larger corrective pattern to unfold down towards the 80, but this is unclear to me, the US dollar can have sharp moves that are hard to track using Elliott, if the Euro develops support on 128 then the Dollar will be seeing a larger corrective pattern into 80
The Elliott pattern down from the high is in three waves abc but it can turn into five waves, the bounce off 81 being wave four, the wave four should be sideways and a new low eventually made under 81, if this is the case then a larger correction will unfold into 80 and the Euro will push higher above 128
Forex EURUSD 1.2730
TradingLevels: The 1.2720 is the main price point, use the sublevels SG1 Midpoint and SG2 while the price is reacting from the 128
Elliott wave: The move down in the dollar is currently three wave corrective, the same here with the Euro the move up to 128 is in three waves corrective, however it could turn into five waves. The current sell off from 128 is impulsive so expect a minimum of three swings abc
Day Trading : It about being on the right side of 1.2720 but the pressure is to the downside because of the reaction from 128 in an impulsive wave if this is the case then 12672 is the lower target
Forex AUDUSD 1.0380
TradingLevelsThe price is swinging across 104 its only in its second swing, early days yet before completion and developing support on 104 and anyway it can pull back further besides the current support SG2 10372 the supports are 10350 and 10330.
Elliott wave Nice long trade if you go the support off 103 and scaled in through SG1. The pattern now is correcting the trend up, the correction can be a wave four so it should be time consuming. The move down from the high appears impulsive so this is just the first of three swings the question is will after these three swings find support on 104 and if so scale in long through SG1 of 104
Day Trading : no real strategy while the price is correcting in three swings, best to scalp the sublevels while in the correction
Indices
Markets in Asia closed sharply higher in the last session after better than expected "China Q4 GDP" data that came out 8.9%. Nikkei was up 1.05%, HSI 3.24% and China even more than 4%. This of course is very positive for some currencies, such as Eur, Gbp, Cad, Aud which is one of the strongest at the moment. US dollar of course is trading lower, as commodity prices rallied, such as gold and oil, in-line with stocks.
Dow Jones CFD 12,520
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Now we are above the 12,500 and the price is working out the support at this level, once this is completed we can look higher to 12650 and the original target of 12772 12,800. In the meantime the support for testing is back at 12472 SG2 zone
Elliott wave An impulse wave higher from the 12300 has still more to unfold up, the corrective pattern above and eventually through and across 12500 is a wave four once completed the price should move higher
Day Trading : Allow a session for wave four to complete and then find support back above 12500 for a the next long trade
S&P500 CFD: 1298
TradingLevels: The 1300 is a MinorLevel (mTL3) it is also the top of Minor Group1 (+SG1 1330) and if support is found here then this opens the door for higher ground, there is technical resistance around the 1320 and the Elliott Count has a top here that requires consideration. When working with a level such as mTL3 1300 we also work with the levels on either side so in this case SG1 above and SG2 below, we can expect SG1 and SG2 to be the resistances and supports while the price is vibrating at 1300
Elliott wave Wave structure on the 15min cash market of the S&P500 also shows incomplete bullish pattern. Now in wave four of an impulse, so more upside in view
Day Trading : Expect corrective reaction patterns at 1300. Counting five waves up from the last low support 290. No strategy while at the early stages of 1300
FTSE 100 CFD: 5670
TradingLevelsI would expect the price to find support in SG2 5680|5672|5665 even though the support is at 5650 the Midpoint. If and when the price climbs back above 5700 as support trade long and scale in through SG1 of 5700
Elliott wave Once the wave four correction at 5700 is completed then wave five up. The 5720 (72) is a subtle resistance and the 5772 and 5800 are then more real resistance and target points
Day Trading : Trade long IF 5700 becomes support again and use SG1 to build the trade
SPI CFD 4200
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels When 420 develops are support trade long through SG1 building the trade
Elliott wave The wave count is much like the AUD and it has a bullish and bearish count, the support on 4200 is a step in the right direction however it’s the support on 4300 the top of Minor Group1 that is key to a truly bullish market
Day Trading : Allow the swings at 4200 to settle then when the 4200 becomes the support then trade long. Use SG1 to build the trade
Technical Analysis
The China Q4 GDP gave markets a boost up and in most cases through their resistances
in line with most of the wave counts.
Markets are now dancing on and across their resistance levels once the dance is done look for support and trade short term long, the correctional dance in most cases is a small wave four, so when the wave moves up and completes a larger corrective pattern will occur
The only conflicting wave counts is the AUDUSD and US Indices, the first point I must point out is that the trends are up, however the Elliott count for the US Indices is for a Major top looming at a very rough guess the 12650 to 12800 for the Dow but the AUDUSD has a more bullish case, so one of them is wrong as the AUDUSD and Dow/SP500 move together. Like I said the trend is up and there is no evidence of a move down in US Indices. Anyway we will continue to monitor this aspect.
Trading Education Quote
Trading's only real secret is... The best loser is the long-term winner - Phantom of the Pits
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
10:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -8.3%
11:30am AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 2.3% -0.7%
3:30pm JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m -2.4% -2.6%
8:00pm EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.94B -1.08B
8:30pm GBP Claimant Count Change 8.2K 3.0K
8:30pm GBP Unemployment Rate 8.3% 8.3%
8:30pm GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.0% 2.0%
9:00pm CHF ZEW Economic Expectations -72.0
12:30am USD PPI m/m 0.1% 0.3%
12:30am USD Core PPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
1:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 27.3B 4.8B
1:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.2% 77.8%
1:15am USD Industrial Production m/m 0.5% -0.2%
1:30am USD FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
2:00am USD NAHB Housing Market Index 22 21
2:30am CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
2:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 5.0M
3:15am CAD BOC Press Conference
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
Description:
Trading Education From the TradingLounge including Technical Analysis, Trading Strategies, Day Trading, Elliott Wave, TradingLevels, Price Volume Action our Trading Education is Friendly and Affordable with 30 Years’ Experience with ASFL There is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
Trading Education
News
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. stocks gained Tuesday after strong economic data in the U.S., China and Germany fuelled optimism over the pace of global economic growth, setting up stock indexes for their highest close in nearly half a year.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1653
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Ok, now we wait for the price to unfold and find support on the MediumLevel 1650. The resistance as you can see is Subgroup2 SG2 1665|1672|1680
Elliott wave The pattern across above below and across 1650 will be a wave four then wave five up to 1672, wave four can get a little complicated, especially when wave two is simple. The alternation between wave structures and in this case corrective, simple then complex is a guide line rather than a rule, but if the wave three is the extended wave then wave four is normally complicated as the large amount of energy from wave three requires balancing and this is also a point for the bigger picture in gold meaning the all-time high in gold to the low on the 29/12/2011 if this is a wave four, then its too simple for a wave four so we should also consider a much larger wave four unfolding, not so much in price but time before pushing higher above 2000
Silver The 61.8% retracement level is 3200
Oil WTI: 100
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Any long trades off 100 require at least two retests of 100, this is important as there is a bearish Elliott count for this rally as a wave two rally. But above a Major level like this the bias will change from negative to positive and IF support is found that forms part of the set up for scaling in long
Elliott wave The 61.8% retracement level is the current high at 101 however another push higher is expected once the retest for support on 100 (TL1) plays out, this will be in line with metals and stock
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.71+
US Nickel: Last: 8.86+
US Zinc: Last: 0.90+
US Aluminium Last: 0.98+
Copper CFD: 367
Technical Analysis
Same - Copper is in an uptrend and should continue, sure it will corrected into and through SG2 365|372|380 and will most likely trade sideways, but the bias is positive and this means the AUSUSD ASX and Asia in general is positive Expect a smaller wave four to unfold from 372 to 365 or 360 the wave four of one lesser degree
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.30
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Now that the price is back down at 81 we have to expect a larger corrective pattern to unfold down towards the 80, but this is unclear to me, the US dollar can have sharp moves that are hard to track using Elliott, if the Euro develops support on 128 then the Dollar will be seeing a larger corrective pattern into 80
The Elliott pattern down from the high is in three waves abc but it can turn into five waves, the bounce off 81 being wave four, the wave four should be sideways and a new low eventually made under 81, if this is the case then a larger correction will unfold into 80 and the Euro will push higher above 128
Forex EURUSD 1.2730
TradingLevels: The 1.2720 is the main price point, use the sublevels SG1 Midpoint and SG2 while the price is reacting from the 128
Elliott wave: The move down in the dollar is currently three wave corrective, the same here with the Euro the move up to 128 is in three waves corrective, however it could turn into five waves. The current sell off from 128 is impulsive so expect a minimum of three swings abc
Day Trading : It about being on the right side of 1.2720 but the pressure is to the downside because of the reaction from 128 in an impulsive wave if this is the case then 12672 is the lower target
Forex AUDUSD 1.0380
TradingLevelsThe price is swinging across 104 its only in its second swing, early days yet before completion and developing support on 104 and anyway it can pull back further besides the current support SG2 10372 the supports are 10350 and 10330.
Elliott wave Nice long trade if you go the support off 103 and scaled in through SG1. The pattern now is correcting the trend up, the correction can be a wave four so it should be time consuming. The move down from the high appears impulsive so this is just the first of three swings the question is will after these three swings find support on 104 and if so scale in long through SG1 of 104
Day Trading : no real strategy while the price is correcting in three swings, best to scalp the sublevels while in the correction
Indices
Markets in Asia closed sharply higher in the last session after better than expected "China Q4 GDP" data that came out 8.9%. Nikkei was up 1.05%, HSI 3.24% and China even more than 4%. This of course is very positive for some currencies, such as Eur, Gbp, Cad, Aud which is one of the strongest at the moment. US dollar of course is trading lower, as commodity prices rallied, such as gold and oil, in-line with stocks.
Dow Jones CFD 12,520
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Now we are above the 12,500 and the price is working out the support at this level, once this is completed we can look higher to 12650 and the original target of 12772 12,800. In the meantime the support for testing is back at 12472 SG2 zone
Elliott wave An impulse wave higher from the 12300 has still more to unfold up, the corrective pattern above and eventually through and across 12500 is a wave four once completed the price should move higher
Day Trading : Allow a session for wave four to complete and then find support back above 12500 for a the next long trade
S&P500 CFD: 1298
TradingLevels: The 1300 is a MinorLevel (mTL3) it is also the top of Minor Group1 (+SG1 1330) and if support is found here then this opens the door for higher ground, there is technical resistance around the 1320 and the Elliott Count has a top here that requires consideration. When working with a level such as mTL3 1300 we also work with the levels on either side so in this case SG1 above and SG2 below, we can expect SG1 and SG2 to be the resistances and supports while the price is vibrating at 1300
Elliott wave Wave structure on the 15min cash market of the S&P500 also shows incomplete bullish pattern. Now in wave four of an impulse, so more upside in view
Day Trading : Expect corrective reaction patterns at 1300. Counting five waves up from the last low support 290. No strategy while at the early stages of 1300
FTSE 100 CFD: 5670
TradingLevelsI would expect the price to find support in SG2 5680|5672|5665 even though the support is at 5650 the Midpoint. If and when the price climbs back above 5700 as support trade long and scale in through SG1 of 5700
Elliott wave Once the wave four correction at 5700 is completed then wave five up. The 5720 (72) is a subtle resistance and the 5772 and 5800 are then more real resistance and target points
Day Trading : Trade long IF 5700 becomes support again and use SG1 to build the trade
SPI CFD 4200
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels When 420 develops are support trade long through SG1 building the trade
Elliott wave The wave count is much like the AUD and it has a bullish and bearish count, the support on 4200 is a step in the right direction however it’s the support on 4300 the top of Minor Group1 that is key to a truly bullish market
Day Trading : Allow the swings at 4200 to settle then when the 4200 becomes the support then trade long. Use SG1 to build the trade
Technical Analysis
The China Q4 GDP gave markets a boost up and in most cases through their resistances
in line with most of the wave counts.
Markets are now dancing on and across their resistance levels once the dance is done look for support and trade short term long, the correctional dance in most cases is a small wave four, so when the wave moves up and completes a larger corrective pattern will occur
The only conflicting wave counts is the AUDUSD and US Indices, the first point I must point out is that the trends are up, however the Elliott count for the US Indices is for a Major top looming at a very rough guess the 12650 to 12800 for the Dow but the AUDUSD has a more bullish case, so one of them is wrong as the AUDUSD and Dow/SP500 move together. Like I said the trend is up and there is no evidence of a move down in US Indices. Anyway we will continue to monitor this aspect.
Trading Education Quote
Trading's only real secret is... The best loser is the long-term winner - Phantom of the Pits
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
10:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -8.3%
11:30am AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 2.3% -0.7%
3:30pm JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m -2.4% -2.6%
8:00pm EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.94B -1.08B
8:30pm GBP Claimant Count Change 8.2K 3.0K
8:30pm GBP Unemployment Rate 8.3% 8.3%
8:30pm GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.0% 2.0%
9:00pm CHF ZEW Economic Expectations -72.0
12:30am USD PPI m/m 0.1% 0.3%
12:30am USD Core PPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
1:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 27.3B 4.8B
1:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.2% 77.8%
1:15am USD Industrial Production m/m 0.5% -0.2%
1:30am USD FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
2:00am USD NAHB Housing Market Index 22 21
2:30am CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
2:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 5.0M
3:15am CAD BOC Press Conference
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
Tuesday, 17 January 2012
Technical Analysis
To Watch Video on Technical Analysis Visit Us on Youtube http://youtu.be/W-dwglBCU10
Description:
Technical Analysis
TradingLounge’s Peter Mathers Technical Analyst outlines Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies using the Tradinglevels Pattern Recognition Elliott Wave as Trading Education.
This Day Trading report is only the lead in for the actual mechanical Robo Day Trading for the Australia, US and UK Markets, Forex Elliott Wave Technical Analysis is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
CFD Trading Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1643
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading: The price is retesting 1650 MediumLevel, our Elliott count is expecting it to roll over down, but we should not jump the gun on a short until the evidence is in place.
Also the move down from the 1662 high down to the low 1625, is not a clear five waves (impulse) it’s more like a three wave corrective pattern, if that is the case then the price should climb above 1650 and if that is the case then a long trade would be created off the 1650 support. Any way we need to wait for a set up
Elliott wave: Gold fell nicely into 1625 projected area that we highlighted on Friday. But despite that fall, we are still monitoring a wave structure that will send the market lower. We are talking about an expanded flat formation with wave c) underway, which should find a peak in the next two sessions, ideally around 1648-1652 area.
Silver If the 2972 becomes the retested resistance then short, if the 30.00 becomes support then scale in long through SG1
Oil WTI: 99.65
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading: The technical resistance is 100 and the supply (sellers) 101, The 101 is also the 61.8% rally target. We need to allow this to play out and we need to see the US market stock market e.g. the Dow play out at 12500. Do not go long on Oil while the price is retesting resistance as this is a negative bias
Elliott wave: On our chart the Elliott count is label for further down side, with the price rolling over from the 100, however also be aware of the ABC pattern, that is from the high around the 6th Jan 103.50 to the low around the 13th 98 can be counted as an abc corrective pattern this is why it’s important to allow this pattern to play out, the real short trade if any is much further out there in time, essentially five waves down then three waves back up then the short, we only have three down at the moment
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.66+
US Nickel: Last: 8.84-
US Zinc: Last: 0.88+
US Aluminium Last: 0.95+
Copper CFD: 367
Technical Analysis:
Copper is in an uptrend and should continue, sure it will corrected into and through SG2 365|372|380 and will most likely trade sideways, but the bias is positive and this means the AUSUSD ASX and Asia in general is positive
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.62
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading: the dollar is still reacting to the MinorLevel 82.00 (mTL2), the weak spot is it trading under SG2 8172 as this creates the next level down at the Midpoint 8150, this also means the Euro will hold up and stocks can move higher, so the 8172 is a line in the sand you can judge other market and also be on the right side of this price point. This of course helps the AUD up
Forex EURUSD 1.2663
Technical Analysis: Support on 1.2672 puts the price at 1.27 – 1.2720 or even high as 1.2772 before rolling over down. While the US Dollar is under 8172 this would be the case, so what that too. And short under the 12672 and then 65 as retested
Elliott wave: The price did not drop from the 1.2672 and 1.2650 as expected and in fact now find these numbers as support. We are considering the rise as a corrective rally
Day Trading us the 1.2672 as support to get to 1.27 exit and once and if support is creates on 1.27 scale in expect resistance at 1.2720 so this as support is required for higher group, the Dollar would be bouncing of the Midpoint 8150 be then so the 8150 would also be important as support or resistance. And short under the 12672 and then 65 as retested
Forex AUDUSD 1.0316
TradingLevels: The price pattern is slowly edging forwards in developing support on 103
Elliott wave: Once retested support is established look for a long trade to 104
Trading Strategies: Support SG2 10272 you need 103 as support, tested support then seeing the price build through SG1 10310|10320|10330 you know support on top of SG1 10330 creates the higher ground. The current corrective pattern at this 103 can get bigger, because copper should correct somewhat now, however there is talk of China putting money into their system this week, the Shanghai also needs to stay above 2200, also the dollar being under the 8172 is supportive for the aud. But in the end it’s the retests into 103 that you need to observe and work the levels in SG1 especially the support on 10330, if this does happen new highs should be made, but there will be resistances at the Midpoint 10350 and SG2 65,72,80
FTSE 100 CFD: 5641
Day Trading: Subgroup2 (SG2) 5665|5672|5680 is the resistance and supply
Elliott wave: Unsure, however any longs need to have 5672 as support
Trading Strategies: Only go long if 5672 is the support. When the price moves up to this level SG2 the price will react, so give it time to swing around for a while before thinking going long or short.
SPI CFD 4160
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Intraday, support on 4172 is required for long trades, you can take on higher risk is you like and buy above 4150 with stops at 4143 as a move under this stop would have created a corrective rally with further downside to come.
Elliott wave: Still looking at this larger corrective pattern as just that corrective, but the 4150 would really need to hold now otherwise a larger degree of pattern would be unfolding and this opens a more bearish window
Day Trading: The same as yesterday, look for support in SG2. Work any trade from SG2 4165|4172|4180 the 4172 is the important price point. Remember the Shanghai really need to remain above the 2200 and also observe the AUDUSD to see if it can develop support on the 103 this would be help full.
Technical Analysis
US Stocks and Bonds were closed last night, so we can look at the Dax and UK, such as UK BHP being positive and steady, the US Dollar being under 8172 this should reflect back here to some degree of our markets being steady today
The Shanghai market was also down yesterday, but as long as it stays above the 2200 we can consider the low there still forming, but we must trade lightly in all markets at the moment as the US market are still facing resistances, the Dow 12500 SP500 1300 this places a negative bias, the only real positive are the base metals and the possibility on the China market form this current low, but be aware this forming of a low can disappear quickly.
The ASX200 to be positive needs to build on 4200 as support if it slips under the 4150 then it’s not a positive look for this market, any way volumes are light and we should be trading smaller position sizes and short trading ranges
Another weakness in the air is the US reporting this week, as there are something like 40 big companies reporting earns and they are not looking good based on the amount of current downgrading last week, this can be the catalyst for the Dow to rollover under the 12500, so don’t commit to the long side too much
The ASX Q4 2011 Activities / Production Report are out this week you can get them from the link at the top of this page (link to Dow Jones News) look for DJ Asia-Pacific Calendar.
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Trading Quote
You may not understand it fully right now but the market is always right.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:00am NZD NZIER Business Confidence 25
10:00am USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
10:50am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -0.3% 0.6%
17th-20th GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence 41 40
1:00pm CNY GDP q/y 8.8% 9.1%
1:00pm CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 24.2% 24.5%
1:00pm CNY Industrial Production y/y 12.3% 12.4%
1:00pm CNY NBS Press Conference
1:00pm CNY Retail Sales y/y 17.2% 17.3%
8:30pm GBP CPI y/y 4.2% 4.8%
8:30pm GBP RPI y/y 4.7% 5.2%
8:30pm GBP Core CPI y/y 3.0% 3.2%
8:30pm GBP DCLG HPI y/y 0.2% -0.4%
9:00pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -49.5 -53.8
9:00pm EUR CPI y/y 2.8% 2.8%
9:00pm EUR Core CPI y/y 1.6% 1.6%
9:00pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -48.7 -54.1
9:00pm GBP BOE Gov King Speaks
9:00pm GBP CB Leading Index m/m -0.4%
12:30am CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 6.97B 2.03B
12:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 10.7 9.5
1:00am CAD BOC Rate Statement
1:00am CAD Overnight Rate 1.00% 1.00%
5:30am GBP MPC Member Posen Speaks
Description:
Technical Analysis
TradingLounge’s Peter Mathers Technical Analyst outlines Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies using the Tradinglevels Pattern Recognition Elliott Wave as Trading Education.
This Day Trading report is only the lead in for the actual mechanical Robo Day Trading for the Australia, US and UK Markets, Forex Elliott Wave Technical Analysis is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
CFD Trading Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1643
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading: The price is retesting 1650 MediumLevel, our Elliott count is expecting it to roll over down, but we should not jump the gun on a short until the evidence is in place.
Also the move down from the 1662 high down to the low 1625, is not a clear five waves (impulse) it’s more like a three wave corrective pattern, if that is the case then the price should climb above 1650 and if that is the case then a long trade would be created off the 1650 support. Any way we need to wait for a set up
Elliott wave: Gold fell nicely into 1625 projected area that we highlighted on Friday. But despite that fall, we are still monitoring a wave structure that will send the market lower. We are talking about an expanded flat formation with wave c) underway, which should find a peak in the next two sessions, ideally around 1648-1652 area.
Silver If the 2972 becomes the retested resistance then short, if the 30.00 becomes support then scale in long through SG1
Oil WTI: 99.65
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading: The technical resistance is 100 and the supply (sellers) 101, The 101 is also the 61.8% rally target. We need to allow this to play out and we need to see the US market stock market e.g. the Dow play out at 12500. Do not go long on Oil while the price is retesting resistance as this is a negative bias
Elliott wave: On our chart the Elliott count is label for further down side, with the price rolling over from the 100, however also be aware of the ABC pattern, that is from the high around the 6th Jan 103.50 to the low around the 13th 98 can be counted as an abc corrective pattern this is why it’s important to allow this pattern to play out, the real short trade if any is much further out there in time, essentially five waves down then three waves back up then the short, we only have three down at the moment
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.66+
US Nickel: Last: 8.84-
US Zinc: Last: 0.88+
US Aluminium Last: 0.95+
Copper CFD: 367
Technical Analysis:
Copper is in an uptrend and should continue, sure it will corrected into and through SG2 365|372|380 and will most likely trade sideways, but the bias is positive and this means the AUSUSD ASX and Asia in general is positive
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.62
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading: the dollar is still reacting to the MinorLevel 82.00 (mTL2), the weak spot is it trading under SG2 8172 as this creates the next level down at the Midpoint 8150, this also means the Euro will hold up and stocks can move higher, so the 8172 is a line in the sand you can judge other market and also be on the right side of this price point. This of course helps the AUD up
Forex EURUSD 1.2663
Technical Analysis: Support on 1.2672 puts the price at 1.27 – 1.2720 or even high as 1.2772 before rolling over down. While the US Dollar is under 8172 this would be the case, so what that too. And short under the 12672 and then 65 as retested
Elliott wave: The price did not drop from the 1.2672 and 1.2650 as expected and in fact now find these numbers as support. We are considering the rise as a corrective rally
Day Trading us the 1.2672 as support to get to 1.27 exit and once and if support is creates on 1.27 scale in expect resistance at 1.2720 so this as support is required for higher group, the Dollar would be bouncing of the Midpoint 8150 be then so the 8150 would also be important as support or resistance. And short under the 12672 and then 65 as retested
Forex AUDUSD 1.0316
TradingLevels: The price pattern is slowly edging forwards in developing support on 103
Elliott wave: Once retested support is established look for a long trade to 104
Trading Strategies: Support SG2 10272 you need 103 as support, tested support then seeing the price build through SG1 10310|10320|10330 you know support on top of SG1 10330 creates the higher ground. The current corrective pattern at this 103 can get bigger, because copper should correct somewhat now, however there is talk of China putting money into their system this week, the Shanghai also needs to stay above 2200, also the dollar being under the 8172 is supportive for the aud. But in the end it’s the retests into 103 that you need to observe and work the levels in SG1 especially the support on 10330, if this does happen new highs should be made, but there will be resistances at the Midpoint 10350 and SG2 65,72,80
FTSE 100 CFD: 5641
Day Trading: Subgroup2 (SG2) 5665|5672|5680 is the resistance and supply
Elliott wave: Unsure, however any longs need to have 5672 as support
Trading Strategies: Only go long if 5672 is the support. When the price moves up to this level SG2 the price will react, so give it time to swing around for a while before thinking going long or short.
SPI CFD 4160
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Intraday, support on 4172 is required for long trades, you can take on higher risk is you like and buy above 4150 with stops at 4143 as a move under this stop would have created a corrective rally with further downside to come.
Elliott wave: Still looking at this larger corrective pattern as just that corrective, but the 4150 would really need to hold now otherwise a larger degree of pattern would be unfolding and this opens a more bearish window
Day Trading: The same as yesterday, look for support in SG2. Work any trade from SG2 4165|4172|4180 the 4172 is the important price point. Remember the Shanghai really need to remain above the 2200 and also observe the AUDUSD to see if it can develop support on the 103 this would be help full.
Technical Analysis
US Stocks and Bonds were closed last night, so we can look at the Dax and UK, such as UK BHP being positive and steady, the US Dollar being under 8172 this should reflect back here to some degree of our markets being steady today
The Shanghai market was also down yesterday, but as long as it stays above the 2200 we can consider the low there still forming, but we must trade lightly in all markets at the moment as the US market are still facing resistances, the Dow 12500 SP500 1300 this places a negative bias, the only real positive are the base metals and the possibility on the China market form this current low, but be aware this forming of a low can disappear quickly.
The ASX200 to be positive needs to build on 4200 as support if it slips under the 4150 then it’s not a positive look for this market, any way volumes are light and we should be trading smaller position sizes and short trading ranges
Another weakness in the air is the US reporting this week, as there are something like 40 big companies reporting earns and they are not looking good based on the amount of current downgrading last week, this can be the catalyst for the Dow to rollover under the 12500, so don’t commit to the long side too much
The ASX Q4 2011 Activities / Production Report are out this week you can get them from the link at the top of this page (link to Dow Jones News) look for DJ Asia-Pacific Calendar.
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Trading Quote
You may not understand it fully right now but the market is always right.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:00am NZD NZIER Business Confidence 25
10:00am USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
10:50am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -0.3% 0.6%
17th-20th GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence 41 40
1:00pm CNY GDP q/y 8.8% 9.1%
1:00pm CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 24.2% 24.5%
1:00pm CNY Industrial Production y/y 12.3% 12.4%
1:00pm CNY NBS Press Conference
1:00pm CNY Retail Sales y/y 17.2% 17.3%
8:30pm GBP CPI y/y 4.2% 4.8%
8:30pm GBP RPI y/y 4.7% 5.2%
8:30pm GBP Core CPI y/y 3.0% 3.2%
8:30pm GBP DCLG HPI y/y 0.2% -0.4%
9:00pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -49.5 -53.8
9:00pm EUR CPI y/y 2.8% 2.8%
9:00pm EUR Core CPI y/y 1.6% 1.6%
9:00pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -48.7 -54.1
9:00pm GBP BOE Gov King Speaks
9:00pm GBP CB Leading Index m/m -0.4%
12:30am CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 6.97B 2.03B
12:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 10.7 9.5
1:00am CAD BOC Rate Statement
1:00am CAD Overnight Rate 1.00% 1.00%
5:30am GBP MPC Member Posen Speaks
Tuesday, 10 January 2012
Elliott Wave GBPUSD
Elliott Wave GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart 10 January 2012 6:19:00PM AEST
Cable is showing very similar wave structure as the Elliott WaveEur/Usd pattern; advance from the lows appears corrective because of slow and overlapping price action within parallel lines. However this one is lagging compared to euro, so we still want to see support channel line broken, before downtrend is confirmed.
Elliott Wave GBPUSD4 Hour Chart 10 January 2012 5:23:00PM AEST
-corrective price action complete
We reworked the Elliott Wave count on cable after impulsive fall from recent 1.5671 swing. We know that impulsive waves shows direction of a larger trend, so with this being said, the most recent upward leg from 1.5360 is done, which means that pair should move into a new low! As such, we think that wave 2) was a running flat, and that pair is tin a sub-wave 1
Elliott Wave GBPUSD Daily Chart 08 January 2012
-wave 2) done!?
A decline from 1.6170 can be counted in five Elliott Waves, with wave 5 low just above 1.5300 area from where we a sideways move over the past few weeks. AS such, we came out with an idea that wave 2) may have already reached a peak and that weakness will follow in coming days and weeks. But we however still want to see a 1.526 breakout; 2011 low, which will send the pair down minimum to 1.48!.
For more Technical Analysis and free stuff, please visit Trading Lounge website: tradinglounge.com.au
Cable is showing very similar wave structure as the Elliott WaveEur/Usd pattern; advance from the lows appears corrective because of slow and overlapping price action within parallel lines. However this one is lagging compared to euro, so we still want to see support channel line broken, before downtrend is confirmed.
Elliott Wave GBPUSD4 Hour Chart 10 January 2012 5:23:00PM AEST
-corrective price action complete
We reworked the Elliott Wave count on cable after impulsive fall from recent 1.5671 swing. We know that impulsive waves shows direction of a larger trend, so with this being said, the most recent upward leg from 1.5360 is done, which means that pair should move into a new low! As such, we think that wave 2) was a running flat, and that pair is tin a sub-wave 1
Elliott Wave GBPUSD Daily Chart 08 January 2012
-wave 2) done!?
A decline from 1.6170 can be counted in five Elliott Waves, with wave 5 low just above 1.5300 area from where we a sideways move over the past few weeks. AS such, we came out with an idea that wave 2) may have already reached a peak and that weakness will follow in coming days and weeks. But we however still want to see a 1.526 breakout; 2011 low, which will send the pair down minimum to 1.48!.
For more Technical Analysis and free stuff, please visit Trading Lounge website: tradinglounge.com.au
Day Trading
Watch youtube video here: http://youtu.be/ctsSRBXkvf8
Description:
Day Trading and Day Trading Strategies from the TradingLounge Education.
This Technical Analysis video is the basis for setting up our Mechanical Day Trading Methods called Robo, the Robo trades are for the AU, UK and USA , if you require Day Trades for these markets or further Trading Education in Technical Analysis such as Elliott Wave or TradingLevels then visit the TradingLounge for a Free Trial http://tradinglounge.com.au
Day Trading
Dow Jones 12,359 -0.45%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1634
Oil WTI: 102
Copper CFD: 350
US Dollar: 81.45
EURUSD 1.27480
AUDUSD 1.03
Dow Jones CFD 12,450
S&P500 CFD: 1290
FTSE 100 CFD: 5690
SPI CFD 4165
Trading Education
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks were ahead but off session highs Tuesday afternoon after strong gains overseas and an upbeat start to the U.S. earnings reporting season pushed blue-chip stocks to levels not seen since late July.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1634
Technical Analysis
Day Trading : The support is through upper levels of Subgroup1 1620 | 1630 and the MediumLevel 1650 is the resistance. The general pattern of gold is similar to many other markets, a simple breakout of a sideways pattern, these surges at the end of trends are normally on lower volume, we should be seeing tops this week. Trading Education
Elliott wave: Gold moved nice higher, in impulsive manner as expected after the prices broke through 1624 resistance of a wave (d). We know that triangles occur prior to the final leg of the larger pattern, which means that current bullish waves may find a top in the near future. The advance that we are monitoring still could be wave C of larger corrective pull-back. Now we need to be patient and let’s see if we will get signs of a top or not.
Sliver at resistance 30.00 MajorLevel, give it some time to develop support or resistance.
Oil WTI: 102
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading Oil has much the same pattern as other commodities and stocks and the move up is in line with other markets which we expect to find a top this week in Elliott terms, the tradinglevels are the trading insurance for supporting Elliott or not, in that, the price simply being above 100 MajorLevel TL1 is a positive and only long trades would be placed, now breaking that down in to Group1 {101|102|103} we can start to work out the trade, firstly if support is found on top of Group1 103, then we trade to 105. The other aspect in Group1 is trading from the main level in this case 100 to the top of group1 103 and exit and then wait for support, if found trade to 105. And another aspect if waiting for the pivot 102 to find support and move in long from there.
Elliott wave: Oil is trading nicely higher since we called end of a corrective double Zigzag pattern around $100 per barrel. Notice that move is quite sharp and has an impulsive personality through the falling corrective channel line. As such, we believe that prices will revisit 103.60 levels and even higher in this week.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.50+
US Nickel: Last: 8.79+
US Zinc: Last: 0.86+
US Aluminium Last: 0.95+
Copper CFD: 350
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The retest to 350 has taken place and this move is the same as most other markets and we are expect the other markets, more so the US Indices to top this week, if this is the case then Oil Gold Copper etc should do the same. However from a trading point of view we need to trade what we see rather than attach ourselves to an opinion, so if the 350 Midpoint develops support then it’s a positive market, but it need to be a good support, there is plenty of supply (sellers) from 350 to 365, the likely resistance numbers are 356, 357 and 358 then a more serious retest of the Midpoint, it would be this retest that will be the focus. Remember this market is a catalyst of base metals and therefor of the AUDUSD and the Materials sector on the ASX UK USA etc and is now also driven by the Shanghai Copper futures i.e China, and the sharp rise today is from comments made by China regarding spurring growth.
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.45
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading TradingLevels: Minor Group1 (MG1 {81|82|83}) it is important to understand while the price is in MG1 it is still part of the next degree higher that is the MajorLevel TL8 | 80.00 only when the top of Group1 83.00 is the support that the price is free of TL8.
Being inside Minor Group1 offers a variety of trading opportunities, however you need to be clear on what you’re doing, there are some basic strategies that can be applied, not some much as to different time frames but to different degrees of structures and in this case there the basic structure apart from the MajorLevel TL8 and the Microlevels, the MinorLevels and Sublevels (SubMinor) are the degree of structure you would start planning your trades out and there are rules how to use the levels, they are the same throughout all the degrees of structures.
In the Minor Levels (MG1 {81|82|83}) the 1 is the strongest number and the 2 is the pivot for Group1 and Group1 has its rules and characteristics depending if you’re going long or short through the Group or if your scalping the sublevels then the normal tradinglevels rules apply
Elliott Wave: The move down to 81 (mTL1) is wave a or I any bounce off 81 is wave b or ii. Because the price is still trapped in MG1 we have to be open to a larger corrective pattern across 80. That said the Pound and Euro have long term trends down so any larger corrective pattern at 80 would be sharp and short.
Forex EURUSD 1.27480
Technical Analysis: The 1.28 is the main play here, the 8 is a profit taking number, so a correctional pattern is assured, the supports under this the nest degree down is the Group2 1.2765|1.2772|1.2780 and then the group1 above 1.28 the 1.2810|1.2820|1.2830.
Elliott wave Euro made a new high in recent hour, which made the wave counts and outlook at little more complicated, simply because now a recovery can be counted in different way. It could be a corrective w)-x)-y) which is our primary count, but in such case we need immediately impulsive fall back below 1.2742, If we don't get that, and if price will trade slowly lower, then recovery from the lows could also be a leading diagonal in wave (a), of a larger and incomplete recovery.
Trading Strategies: The price is working with 1.28, the normal thing to do is to trade to 1.28 and exit. Then wait for the correction, look for the basic three swings, Elliott Zigzag then if the price climbs on 1.28 as support then work the long side using group1, there are a handful of strategies you can use in and through Group1 you just need to be clear on what you are doing. On the flip side if the 1.28 becomes the resistance then use Group2 1.2765|1.2772|1.2780 and in this case the 1.2772 is highly important as support or resistance, you would short a failed retest of 72.
The current move up is part of a Elliott wave four and wave fours can get complicated, as mentioned before we don’t normally trade wave four. The move up is likely one leg of three
Forex AUDUSD 1.03
Day Trading : I have talked about Group1 in the EarlyBird toady in different markets and it’s the same here in the AUDUSD Subgroup1 (SG1 101|102|103) however in this case the price is at the top of Group1 at 103 and if the price develops support on top of Group1 it will move higher to 105 the Midpoint, this is Subgroup1 |103 as MinorGroup1 MG1 would be at 1.30.
Elliott wave: The current move up from around the 1.0150 to 1.0350 is in three waves ABC, the corrective pullback pattern about to unfold at 103 can be wave four.
Trading Strategies : Allow the corrective pattern at 103 to unfold, at minimum look for three swings. The support apart from 103 is the next degree down and under 103, Group2 1.0265|1.0272|1.0280 which falls into the 382 – 50% retracement level for a wave four and also the wave four of one lesser degree. Wave fours can get messy.
On the upside you want 10330 as support.
Day Trading Gold, Oil and S&P Futures moved nicely higher during Asian session and supported some FX pairs, while the US dollar moved slightly lower. However at the start of the European session we can see some pressure against the Euro and Pound, which in fact could be start of some larger declines on those pairs based on the EW pattern. We believe that weakness on both will be significant if S&P Futures reaches just a temporary resistance. In fact, S&P moved out of a corrective price action that we highlighted few times in the past updates, and if we take a look on the structure of the pattern, then we can clearly see that it was a triangle. And here comes the interesting part, "Triangles unfold just prior to the final move in the larger pattern", which means that bearish reversal should follow. As such, we are observing levels from 1283-1290 for a potential top.
Dow Jones CFD 12,450
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 12500 was a target for the top of this trend, however, what is happening in price action at a level is normal for a bullish market there is no evidence yet of a top, when a price arrives at a number like this, 5 (500) is the second strongest number, this is called the arrival, then the reaction, the finding support, then the retest or the first high above the level, this would be part of the basic Classic pattern unfolding. It is the retest of supply that is the real important aspect to observe, once we can see if we are going to get a failed retest or the first high above the levels 12500 then we know what will happen next
Elliott wave: I think the correction at 12,500 is a wave four, with a wave five to 12550 the wave five being the same length roughly as wave one…
Day Trading If support can be found on 12,472 then trade up, if you have been trading up then you would have exited at 12500. You know the Dow likes to work each 100 points, this is where the corrections are. Use the sublevels to plan entries, stops and exits. Or if your scalping then the 2 minute Robo and the tradinglevels, the market runs the fasted between number 3 -5 -8 up or down
S&P500 CFD: 1290
TradingLevels: The 1,300 is the MinorLevel (mTL3) and is the top of MinorGroup1 (1100|1200|1300) so this is a very important price point, we should expect the price to have a correction above below across this level.
Elliott wave: The structure up is still going so expect he price to find a top this week at or above 1300. Count the impulse wave (5 waves) from the 1265 (SG2) up, you can see it still had further to go
Trading Strategies : If your long you should think of scaling into 1300
FTSE 100 CFD: 5690
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: You can see the impulse wave up and the 5700 is where the corrective pattern is unfolding, so allow it to unfold in three swings, if support is found on 5700 after the correction pattern then edge in long, the 5720 will also be resistance, it is part of Subgroup1 but its also a 72
Elliott wave: Same - Targets 5772 - 5800
Trading Strategies: Wait for the correction at 5700 to become fully developed then look for support (Gann liked to use 57 a lot)
SPI CFD 4165
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The target is 4200 with the SG2 in the way (6165|4172|4180) any longs would require 4172 as support
Elliott wave: Count the Impulse wave up (5 waves) up from the 4100 to 4200
Day Trading: China mentioned about spurring the economy, the trend up is the result. Expect a correction pattern at SG2 after the smallish corrective pattern look for support on 4172 add on 4180 support exit at 4198
Summary
We got our move up in most markets, now we are looking for the top which should occur this week. In the move up we are looking for an impulse wave (5 waves) I think we have the top of wave three and four is developing with the fifth wave up to go, at a very rough guess just to give shape to the pattern the Dow at 12550
Weekly Cycle; Wed higher close, Thursday open higher close lower.
Trading Quote
Nothing New In Day Trading
That enormous profits should have turned into still more colossal losses, that new theories should have been developed and later discredited, that unlimited optimism should have been succeeded by the deepest despair, are all in strict accord with age-old tradition.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
11:01am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 2.0%
4:00pm JPY Leading Indicators 92.9% 92.0%
8:00pm EUR Final GDP q/q 0.2% 0.2%
8:30pm GBP Trade Balance -8.2B -7.6B
1:00am USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
2:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.2M
6:00am USD Beige Book
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Description:
Day Trading and Day Trading Strategies from the TradingLounge Education.
This Technical Analysis video is the basis for setting up our Mechanical Day Trading Methods called Robo, the Robo trades are for the AU, UK and USA , if you require Day Trades for these markets or further Trading Education in Technical Analysis such as Elliott Wave or TradingLevels then visit the TradingLounge for a Free Trial http://tradinglounge.com.au
Day Trading
Dow Jones 12,359 -0.45%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1634
Oil WTI: 102
Copper CFD: 350
US Dollar: 81.45
EURUSD 1.27480
AUDUSD 1.03
Dow Jones CFD 12,450
S&P500 CFD: 1290
FTSE 100 CFD: 5690
SPI CFD 4165
Trading Education
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks were ahead but off session highs Tuesday afternoon after strong gains overseas and an upbeat start to the U.S. earnings reporting season pushed blue-chip stocks to levels not seen since late July.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1634
Technical Analysis
Day Trading : The support is through upper levels of Subgroup1 1620 | 1630 and the MediumLevel 1650 is the resistance. The general pattern of gold is similar to many other markets, a simple breakout of a sideways pattern, these surges at the end of trends are normally on lower volume, we should be seeing tops this week. Trading Education
Elliott wave: Gold moved nice higher, in impulsive manner as expected after the prices broke through 1624 resistance of a wave (d). We know that triangles occur prior to the final leg of the larger pattern, which means that current bullish waves may find a top in the near future. The advance that we are monitoring still could be wave C of larger corrective pull-back. Now we need to be patient and let’s see if we will get signs of a top or not.
Sliver at resistance 30.00 MajorLevel, give it some time to develop support or resistance.
Oil WTI: 102
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading Oil has much the same pattern as other commodities and stocks and the move up is in line with other markets which we expect to find a top this week in Elliott terms, the tradinglevels are the trading insurance for supporting Elliott or not, in that, the price simply being above 100 MajorLevel TL1 is a positive and only long trades would be placed, now breaking that down in to Group1 {101|102|103} we can start to work out the trade, firstly if support is found on top of Group1 103, then we trade to 105. The other aspect in Group1 is trading from the main level in this case 100 to the top of group1 103 and exit and then wait for support, if found trade to 105. And another aspect if waiting for the pivot 102 to find support and move in long from there.
Elliott wave: Oil is trading nicely higher since we called end of a corrective double Zigzag pattern around $100 per barrel. Notice that move is quite sharp and has an impulsive personality through the falling corrective channel line. As such, we believe that prices will revisit 103.60 levels and even higher in this week.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.50+
US Nickel: Last: 8.79+
US Zinc: Last: 0.86+
US Aluminium Last: 0.95+
Copper CFD: 350
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The retest to 350 has taken place and this move is the same as most other markets and we are expect the other markets, more so the US Indices to top this week, if this is the case then Oil Gold Copper etc should do the same. However from a trading point of view we need to trade what we see rather than attach ourselves to an opinion, so if the 350 Midpoint develops support then it’s a positive market, but it need to be a good support, there is plenty of supply (sellers) from 350 to 365, the likely resistance numbers are 356, 357 and 358 then a more serious retest of the Midpoint, it would be this retest that will be the focus. Remember this market is a catalyst of base metals and therefor of the AUDUSD and the Materials sector on the ASX UK USA etc and is now also driven by the Shanghai Copper futures i.e China, and the sharp rise today is from comments made by China regarding spurring growth.
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.45
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading TradingLevels: Minor Group1 (MG1 {81|82|83}) it is important to understand while the price is in MG1 it is still part of the next degree higher that is the MajorLevel TL8 | 80.00 only when the top of Group1 83.00 is the support that the price is free of TL8.
Being inside Minor Group1 offers a variety of trading opportunities, however you need to be clear on what you’re doing, there are some basic strategies that can be applied, not some much as to different time frames but to different degrees of structures and in this case there the basic structure apart from the MajorLevel TL8 and the Microlevels, the MinorLevels and Sublevels (SubMinor) are the degree of structure you would start planning your trades out and there are rules how to use the levels, they are the same throughout all the degrees of structures.
In the Minor Levels (MG1 {81|82|83}) the 1 is the strongest number and the 2 is the pivot for Group1 and Group1 has its rules and characteristics depending if you’re going long or short through the Group or if your scalping the sublevels then the normal tradinglevels rules apply
Elliott Wave: The move down to 81 (mTL1) is wave a or I any bounce off 81 is wave b or ii. Because the price is still trapped in MG1 we have to be open to a larger corrective pattern across 80. That said the Pound and Euro have long term trends down so any larger corrective pattern at 80 would be sharp and short.
Forex EURUSD 1.27480
Technical Analysis: The 1.28 is the main play here, the 8 is a profit taking number, so a correctional pattern is assured, the supports under this the nest degree down is the Group2 1.2765|1.2772|1.2780 and then the group1 above 1.28 the 1.2810|1.2820|1.2830.
Elliott wave Euro made a new high in recent hour, which made the wave counts and outlook at little more complicated, simply because now a recovery can be counted in different way. It could be a corrective w)-x)-y) which is our primary count, but in such case we need immediately impulsive fall back below 1.2742, If we don't get that, and if price will trade slowly lower, then recovery from the lows could also be a leading diagonal in wave (a), of a larger and incomplete recovery.
Trading Strategies: The price is working with 1.28, the normal thing to do is to trade to 1.28 and exit. Then wait for the correction, look for the basic three swings, Elliott Zigzag then if the price climbs on 1.28 as support then work the long side using group1, there are a handful of strategies you can use in and through Group1 you just need to be clear on what you are doing. On the flip side if the 1.28 becomes the resistance then use Group2 1.2765|1.2772|1.2780 and in this case the 1.2772 is highly important as support or resistance, you would short a failed retest of 72.
The current move up is part of a Elliott wave four and wave fours can get complicated, as mentioned before we don’t normally trade wave four. The move up is likely one leg of three
Forex AUDUSD 1.03
Day Trading : I have talked about Group1 in the EarlyBird toady in different markets and it’s the same here in the AUDUSD Subgroup1 (SG1 101|102|103) however in this case the price is at the top of Group1 at 103 and if the price develops support on top of Group1 it will move higher to 105 the Midpoint, this is Subgroup1 |103 as MinorGroup1 MG1 would be at 1.30.
Elliott wave: The current move up from around the 1.0150 to 1.0350 is in three waves ABC, the corrective pullback pattern about to unfold at 103 can be wave four.
Trading Strategies : Allow the corrective pattern at 103 to unfold, at minimum look for three swings. The support apart from 103 is the next degree down and under 103, Group2 1.0265|1.0272|1.0280 which falls into the 382 – 50% retracement level for a wave four and also the wave four of one lesser degree. Wave fours can get messy.
On the upside you want 10330 as support.
Day Trading Gold, Oil and S&P Futures moved nicely higher during Asian session and supported some FX pairs, while the US dollar moved slightly lower. However at the start of the European session we can see some pressure against the Euro and Pound, which in fact could be start of some larger declines on those pairs based on the EW pattern. We believe that weakness on both will be significant if S&P Futures reaches just a temporary resistance. In fact, S&P moved out of a corrective price action that we highlighted few times in the past updates, and if we take a look on the structure of the pattern, then we can clearly see that it was a triangle. And here comes the interesting part, "Triangles unfold just prior to the final move in the larger pattern", which means that bearish reversal should follow. As such, we are observing levels from 1283-1290 for a potential top.
Dow Jones CFD 12,450
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 12500 was a target for the top of this trend, however, what is happening in price action at a level is normal for a bullish market there is no evidence yet of a top, when a price arrives at a number like this, 5 (500) is the second strongest number, this is called the arrival, then the reaction, the finding support, then the retest or the first high above the level, this would be part of the basic Classic pattern unfolding. It is the retest of supply that is the real important aspect to observe, once we can see if we are going to get a failed retest or the first high above the levels 12500 then we know what will happen next
Elliott wave: I think the correction at 12,500 is a wave four, with a wave five to 12550 the wave five being the same length roughly as wave one…
Day Trading If support can be found on 12,472 then trade up, if you have been trading up then you would have exited at 12500. You know the Dow likes to work each 100 points, this is where the corrections are. Use the sublevels to plan entries, stops and exits. Or if your scalping then the 2 minute Robo and the tradinglevels, the market runs the fasted between number 3 -5 -8 up or down
S&P500 CFD: 1290
TradingLevels: The 1,300 is the MinorLevel (mTL3) and is the top of MinorGroup1 (1100|1200|1300) so this is a very important price point, we should expect the price to have a correction above below across this level.
Elliott wave: The structure up is still going so expect he price to find a top this week at or above 1300. Count the impulse wave (5 waves) from the 1265 (SG2) up, you can see it still had further to go
Trading Strategies : If your long you should think of scaling into 1300
FTSE 100 CFD: 5690
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: You can see the impulse wave up and the 5700 is where the corrective pattern is unfolding, so allow it to unfold in three swings, if support is found on 5700 after the correction pattern then edge in long, the 5720 will also be resistance, it is part of Subgroup1 but its also a 72
Elliott wave: Same - Targets 5772 - 5800
Trading Strategies: Wait for the correction at 5700 to become fully developed then look for support (Gann liked to use 57 a lot)
SPI CFD 4165
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The target is 4200 with the SG2 in the way (6165|4172|4180) any longs would require 4172 as support
Elliott wave: Count the Impulse wave up (5 waves) up from the 4100 to 4200
Day Trading: China mentioned about spurring the economy, the trend up is the result. Expect a correction pattern at SG2 after the smallish corrective pattern look for support on 4172 add on 4180 support exit at 4198
Summary
We got our move up in most markets, now we are looking for the top which should occur this week. In the move up we are looking for an impulse wave (5 waves) I think we have the top of wave three and four is developing with the fifth wave up to go, at a very rough guess just to give shape to the pattern the Dow at 12550
Weekly Cycle; Wed higher close, Thursday open higher close lower.
Trading Quote
Nothing New In Day Trading
That enormous profits should have turned into still more colossal losses, that new theories should have been developed and later discredited, that unlimited optimism should have been succeeded by the deepest despair, are all in strict accord with age-old tradition.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
11:01am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 2.0%
4:00pm JPY Leading Indicators 92.9% 92.0%
8:00pm EUR Final GDP q/q 0.2% 0.2%
8:30pm GBP Trade Balance -8.2B -7.6B
1:00am USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
2:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.2M
6:00am USD Beige Book
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Monday, 9 January 2012
Technical Analysis
Video: http://youtu.be/uOl4LvS87p4
Description:
Technical Analysis
TradingLounge’s Peter Mathers Technical Analyst outlines Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies using the Tradinglevels Pattern Recognition Elliott Wave as Trading Education.
This Day Trading report is only the lead in for the actual mechanical Robo Day Trading for the Australia, US and UK Markets, Forex Elliott Wave Technical Analysis is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
Dow Jones 12,359 -0.45%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold: 1617
Oil WTI: 101.87
Copper: 342
US Dollar: 81.59
EURUSD 1.2715
AUDUSD 1.0225
Dow Jones CFD 12,365
S&P500 CFD: 1278
FTSE 100 CFD: 5637
SPI CFDs 4113
Welcome Back
It was great to have some time off and we haven’t really missed any main moves in equities, so all is well. The European dilemma will override most other events and this problem is far from resolved as we can see in the Euro, the driving factor in my uneducated opinion on the matter is simply when the EU drafts new regulations for being in their community, these new rules will have to be enforced and here in sits the problem, the enforcer will be the catalyst for strife.
Last year we turned our Robo trade management method into a Trading Strategy with reasonable results, therefor more attention will be focused on the Robo this year, with better courses and services, late last year we started the US NYSE and Nasdaq, this year we will look to add the LSE UK so we can set trade up around the clock.
Website, last year I was toying around with other website models, so in the first quarter this year, we will be adding a social platform, essentially you can talk to other traders who use the TradingLounge, there will be forums, groups, blogs, trader profiles, you can post charts videos and so on.
We have also been working on a web based charting program it’s very basic but handy with 20 minute delayed data, indicators and stock scanning I will work on it through the year..
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1617
Technical Analysis: Viewing the Daily chart there are three possible Elliott Wave counts, two for the downside and one to the upside, it’s important to understand these counts, as the market unfolds we will be eliminating the counts that don’t fit. I will point these counts out in the video.
TradingLevels, the main game as support or resistance is the MediumLevel (65) 1,650, we would not go long unless the price finds support on 1,650. The current price of 1,617 is very close to the Fibonacci number 1.618 so day traders can use the 1620 as support or resistance. The current move up from the 1520 area to the 1630 is a trend that appears complete, in that trends like correction have a being, middle and end and we can see the price pattern above the 1600 to 1630 has overlapping wave structures which is a sign of weakness, so we should naturally expect a correction of the move up, the support would be 618 retracement or around the SG2 1565|1572|1580 expect and abc zigzag correction at least. On our Elliott Wave charts this move up is a wave four retracing back the fourth wave of one lesser degree, this move up is also only Wave (a) of the correction
Strategy, would be to wait for the price to correct the current trend up, after the correction you need to work out if the 1600 becomes support or resistance. The outside triggers would be long if 1630 (SG1) becomes support or short if 1572 (SG2) becomes resistance.
The other important point with wave fours is that they can get complicated, choppy and they are not the structures to trade. Silver may be the better option to trade as you can work with TL3 30.00
Sliver Same - Add to short when 29.00 becomes the resistance then more so with a failed retest as resistance for MinorLevel mTL8/ 28.00 other numbers 27.72 and 26.50 then 25.00 the MediumLevel to cover shorts.
Oil WTI: 101.87
Technical Analysis: Above TL1 100 is a positive market.
If you were to go long, then work Group1, scale in starting at the pivot 102 as support, expect a reaction at 103 and if the prices are to go higher then expect the price to fluctuate at 103, testing and building support on 102 and eventually developing support on 103 once and if this occurs then add to the position and take profit at 105.
The 102 is the critical support and resistance above 100, if the 102 cannot find support then it’s back to 100 and 98.
The Elliott Wave count is for higher ground, however the price is testing 100 for support and this process needs to continue, but support on the 102 and more so on the 103 top of Group1 is the catalyst for using the Day Trading Robo on the long side of the energy sector
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.43+
US Nickel: Last: 8.48+
US Zinc: Last: 0.83+
US Aluminium Last: 0.83+
Copper CFD: 342
Technical Analysis: The move up from the 15 Dec, is much the same as the AUDUSD, it should be pointed out that there is an alternative count for the AUD and that is on the 4 Hr chart the current Wave 1) can also be the top of a rally an abc for a larger Wave E, we will work through this alternative count over the week ahead, but it does reflect back in Copper, so we could say while copper stays above the 330 the 72% retracement level then Copper remains positive. I will talk about this in the video so we are all on the same page, the AUD Copper and SP500 should all fit together. The LME Copper needs to stay above 7,200 (72) to remain positive which I think is unlikely, the 2011 Sept rally pattern until now is likely a wave four correctional rally retesting 8000 (TL8) I would expect 6500 as the wave five target.
Any positives coming from base metals would need to see the CRB Index develop support on 300 TL3 it is currently testing it in a series of tests, but will it hold over the month ahead is what we will be observing, the precious metals will be part of this mix.
My bias is short for Copper but this means we also need to see the AUD Alternative count unfolding down
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.59
Technical Analysis: TL8|80 is support, we were a little unsure of how the corrective pattern at 80 would unfold before Xmas but it’s clear to see on the hourly chart a simple abc correction on TL8. You can now work a positive pattern through Group1
We have always understood that the Dollar would push higher and the Euro lower, we can even see the EURAUD being the best trade short as these are the weakest and strongest currencies in play.
Any way the Dollar up and the Euro down is the main trend ahead. This also should make equities traders be aware of the divergence between the Euro and SP500 as these guys normally travel together, the SP hasn’t been as strong as the Dow… we should therefor soon see downside for the SP500 as the Euro moves lower.
If the SP500 is going to roll over and follow the Euro, then the AUDUSD will also roll over lower, the AUD has much the same wave pattern as Copper and copper/ base metals should also line up with precious metals.
Forex EURUSD 1.2715
TradingLevels:
The EURAUD is and has been the better short.
The EURUSD has support at 1.25 from the Weekly trendline that said the Euro is in a large wave three down and old lows at 1.20 should be reached. In the bigger picture it is worth noting that the Euro is entering Minor Group1 1.30|1.20|1.10 to me this means the Euro will reach parity with the Dollar.
Elliott Wave: in the Wave 3 down into the 1.25 weekly trend line is about right
Trading Strategies: Scalpers; On the Open work the 1,2720 (72) be on the right side of this number, add on the failed retest of 1.27. you can see the Elliott Wave count on the 1 hour chart. The 1,2650 is a target low
Weekly Robo traders hold short.
Forex AUDUSD 1.0225
TradingLevels: The MajorLevel TL1|1.00 as support, with the current price working through Group1 101|102|103 if the 103 becomes the support then trade to 105, you may be able to buy lower around 101 at the end of Wave c, see the Elliott wave 1 hour chart, but after the ABC correction the safer place to buy is the pivot 102 scaling in and adding if and when 103 develops as support
Elliott Wave: You can see the Elliott Wave count on the AUD charts, however I need to point out that the last high around 104 can also be the end of an abc correction that started Nov 2011 at 97. So we will be talking about the current pattern about to unfold at 103, I will talk about this in the video so you understand both counts and at what point on is eliminated. Essentially the ABC pattern on the hourly chart, can also be 1,2,3… down?
Trading Strategies: Keep your trading within the sublevels until we work out the larger trend
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,365
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Support 12,272 and 12,300 resistance 12,500 the 12,400 resistance should be broken looking at the corrective price pattern above 12,300. The main development would be 12500 as support, this would put the price at 12,650
Elliott Wave: Once again we search for the top of Wave (2) and the current move up in Jan is subdividing into the later stages, we should stay diligent for the reversal
Trading Strategies: Continue to hold long above 12,272 SG2
S&P500 CFD: 1278
TradingLevels: The price is subgroup2 SG2 12651272|1280 and the price is above 1272 support this is a positive development, the next step if going long is waiting for retested support on 1280
Elliott Wave: The 1 hour SP chart states the pattern up nicely
Trading Strategies: Must have 1280 as support before being long for the short term to 1288
FTSE 100 CFD: 5637
TradingLevels: The number 56 is subtle but quite strong and in this case the 5600 so your ability to recognise support on this price the better. In the bigger picture the pattern from the year 2000 to now is simply working sideways with 5000 as the pivot, so the price being above 5600 delivers an overbought scenario in the bigger picture, so we will look for a top from 5650 to 5800 Elliott Wave can help refine this. I think the FSTE250 is also worth a look as it is dragging down the FSTE100 you can see this on the Daily chart, as the 250 has refused to move higher with the 100
Elliott Wave: Targets 5772 - 5800
Trading Strategies: I would be looking to sell short around the 5772 – 5800 but of course we don’t do that, we wait for the turn down and then study the retest, the retesting price and the volume to confirm the price action
SPI CFD 4113
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: While the MediumLevel ML4 | 4000 is support the market is supported, however the larger pattern is presenting a bearish pattern, this would be confirmed if the price touched the 4000 or technically 4037
Elliott Wave: The move down from 4200 to 4100 is either the wave 1 or A, this is the same for the AUDUSD
Day Trading Strategies: If the top of Group1 4130 developed support then go long you could also start scaling in off the 4120 as retested support and trade to 4150 otherwise it’s a choppy ride into 4100 (Retail Figures 11.30AM)
Technical Analysis Summary
US and European markets are edging higher and China Shanghai are still in a solid trend down and Australia is stuck in the middle moving sideways and everyone is simply wondering if Australia will break to the upside or the downside?
The Australian market has psychological support on 4000 and this is the line in the sand, I say this basic observation because the current sidewards pattern sitting on 4000 since August 2010 is looking more like a Triangle pattern which, if so, would break lower through 4000, we can see many of our stocks are also trending down, there are some that are holding up like CBA but there are not many trending up like TLS NWS there is a general pressure building on 4000, the main catalyst for any rise would have to come from the Shanghai finding a low now, any break lower will create a lower low on the ASX200.
We do feel that the US and European markets will creep and struggle higher but any upside is limited, the Xmas Retail Figures for most countries are out this week, this would have been partly the driver for employment in most countries but once this is done and dusted further upside would struggle.
Our trading strategies would be trade smaller position sizes and shorter time frame such as the Daily Robo and be on the defensive side rather than the aggressive side when using the Daily Robo, meaning all the little aspect, such as if the closing passes the opening reduce and make that 30 rather than 25%
Notes on using Elliott Wave;
It’s important to trade what you see, rather than getting opinionated and fixed on a certain market directions with Elliott Wave, sure Elliott wave can be extremely helpful but it can be dreadfully wrong, I have understood this point well and this is why I place support and resistance i.e. tradinglevels first in my trading decisions, I have been using Elliott since 1983 and I have only met a few traders that can consistently take money from the markets using only Elliott analysis. If you’re patient and wait for the right set ups using Elliott then fine, but if you’re trading a lot using Elliott you are playing the guessing game and guessing the direction every day is not an easy task. If you can combined the Elliott theory pattern recognition with the tradinglevels and read the volume, then you are on the right track in developing confidence in what you see. You need to know and understand the exact price points for the entry, stop and exit before you place a trade, the more you can remove the guessing game and the emotional factor the more consistent your trading will become.
Trading Quote
Losing is lonely, but it can be the easiest way to get to know yourself.
It builds a base in which we never have to go below again.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD Trade Balance -294M -282M
9:30am AUD AIG Construction Index 39.6
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m 5.5%
11:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.2%
5:45pm CHF Unemployment Rate 3.1% 3.0%
6:00pm EUR German Trade Balance 12.6B 12.6B
6:45pm EUR French Trade Balance -5.8B -6.2B
7:15pm CHF Retail Sales y/y 0.6% -0.2%
8:30pm EUR Sentix Investor Confidence -23.5 -24.0
10:00pm EUR German Industrial Production m/m -0.4% 0.8%
12:30am CAD Building Permits m/m -3.1% 11.9%
2:30am CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
4:40am USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
7:00am USD Consumer Credit m/m 7.2B 7.6B
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Description:
Technical Analysis
TradingLounge’s Peter Mathers Technical Analyst outlines Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies using the Tradinglevels Pattern Recognition Elliott Wave as Trading Education.
This Day Trading report is only the lead in for the actual mechanical Robo Day Trading for the Australia, US and UK Markets, Forex Elliott Wave Technical Analysis is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
Dow Jones 12,359 -0.45%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold: 1617
Oil WTI: 101.87
Copper: 342
US Dollar: 81.59
EURUSD 1.2715
AUDUSD 1.0225
Dow Jones CFD 12,365
S&P500 CFD: 1278
FTSE 100 CFD: 5637
SPI CFDs 4113
Welcome Back
It was great to have some time off and we haven’t really missed any main moves in equities, so all is well. The European dilemma will override most other events and this problem is far from resolved as we can see in the Euro, the driving factor in my uneducated opinion on the matter is simply when the EU drafts new regulations for being in their community, these new rules will have to be enforced and here in sits the problem, the enforcer will be the catalyst for strife.
Last year we turned our Robo trade management method into a Trading Strategy with reasonable results, therefor more attention will be focused on the Robo this year, with better courses and services, late last year we started the US NYSE and Nasdaq, this year we will look to add the LSE UK so we can set trade up around the clock.
Website, last year I was toying around with other website models, so in the first quarter this year, we will be adding a social platform, essentially you can talk to other traders who use the TradingLounge, there will be forums, groups, blogs, trader profiles, you can post charts videos and so on.
We have also been working on a web based charting program it’s very basic but handy with 20 minute delayed data, indicators and stock scanning I will work on it through the year..
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1617
Technical Analysis: Viewing the Daily chart there are three possible Elliott Wave counts, two for the downside and one to the upside, it’s important to understand these counts, as the market unfolds we will be eliminating the counts that don’t fit. I will point these counts out in the video.
TradingLevels, the main game as support or resistance is the MediumLevel (65) 1,650, we would not go long unless the price finds support on 1,650. The current price of 1,617 is very close to the Fibonacci number 1.618 so day traders can use the 1620 as support or resistance. The current move up from the 1520 area to the 1630 is a trend that appears complete, in that trends like correction have a being, middle and end and we can see the price pattern above the 1600 to 1630 has overlapping wave structures which is a sign of weakness, so we should naturally expect a correction of the move up, the support would be 618 retracement or around the SG2 1565|1572|1580 expect and abc zigzag correction at least. On our Elliott Wave charts this move up is a wave four retracing back the fourth wave of one lesser degree, this move up is also only Wave (a) of the correction
Strategy, would be to wait for the price to correct the current trend up, after the correction you need to work out if the 1600 becomes support or resistance. The outside triggers would be long if 1630 (SG1) becomes support or short if 1572 (SG2) becomes resistance.
The other important point with wave fours is that they can get complicated, choppy and they are not the structures to trade. Silver may be the better option to trade as you can work with TL3 30.00
Sliver Same - Add to short when 29.00 becomes the resistance then more so with a failed retest as resistance for MinorLevel mTL8/ 28.00 other numbers 27.72 and 26.50 then 25.00 the MediumLevel to cover shorts.
Oil WTI: 101.87
Technical Analysis: Above TL1 100 is a positive market.
If you were to go long, then work Group1, scale in starting at the pivot 102 as support, expect a reaction at 103 and if the prices are to go higher then expect the price to fluctuate at 103, testing and building support on 102 and eventually developing support on 103 once and if this occurs then add to the position and take profit at 105.
The 102 is the critical support and resistance above 100, if the 102 cannot find support then it’s back to 100 and 98.
The Elliott Wave count is for higher ground, however the price is testing 100 for support and this process needs to continue, but support on the 102 and more so on the 103 top of Group1 is the catalyst for using the Day Trading Robo on the long side of the energy sector
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.43+
US Nickel: Last: 8.48+
US Zinc: Last: 0.83+
US Aluminium Last: 0.83+
Copper CFD: 342
Technical Analysis: The move up from the 15 Dec, is much the same as the AUDUSD, it should be pointed out that there is an alternative count for the AUD and that is on the 4 Hr chart the current Wave 1) can also be the top of a rally an abc for a larger Wave E, we will work through this alternative count over the week ahead, but it does reflect back in Copper, so we could say while copper stays above the 330 the 72% retracement level then Copper remains positive. I will talk about this in the video so we are all on the same page, the AUD Copper and SP500 should all fit together. The LME Copper needs to stay above 7,200 (72) to remain positive which I think is unlikely, the 2011 Sept rally pattern until now is likely a wave four correctional rally retesting 8000 (TL8) I would expect 6500 as the wave five target.
Any positives coming from base metals would need to see the CRB Index develop support on 300 TL3 it is currently testing it in a series of tests, but will it hold over the month ahead is what we will be observing, the precious metals will be part of this mix.
My bias is short for Copper but this means we also need to see the AUD Alternative count unfolding down
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.59
Technical Analysis: TL8|80 is support, we were a little unsure of how the corrective pattern at 80 would unfold before Xmas but it’s clear to see on the hourly chart a simple abc correction on TL8. You can now work a positive pattern through Group1
We have always understood that the Dollar would push higher and the Euro lower, we can even see the EURAUD being the best trade short as these are the weakest and strongest currencies in play.
Any way the Dollar up and the Euro down is the main trend ahead. This also should make equities traders be aware of the divergence between the Euro and SP500 as these guys normally travel together, the SP hasn’t been as strong as the Dow… we should therefor soon see downside for the SP500 as the Euro moves lower.
If the SP500 is going to roll over and follow the Euro, then the AUDUSD will also roll over lower, the AUD has much the same wave pattern as Copper and copper/ base metals should also line up with precious metals.
Forex EURUSD 1.2715
TradingLevels:
The EURAUD is and has been the better short.
The EURUSD has support at 1.25 from the Weekly trendline that said the Euro is in a large wave three down and old lows at 1.20 should be reached. In the bigger picture it is worth noting that the Euro is entering Minor Group1 1.30|1.20|1.10 to me this means the Euro will reach parity with the Dollar.
Elliott Wave: in the Wave 3 down into the 1.25 weekly trend line is about right
Trading Strategies: Scalpers; On the Open work the 1,2720 (72) be on the right side of this number, add on the failed retest of 1.27. you can see the Elliott Wave count on the 1 hour chart. The 1,2650 is a target low
Weekly Robo traders hold short.
Forex AUDUSD 1.0225
TradingLevels: The MajorLevel TL1|1.00 as support, with the current price working through Group1 101|102|103 if the 103 becomes the support then trade to 105, you may be able to buy lower around 101 at the end of Wave c, see the Elliott wave 1 hour chart, but after the ABC correction the safer place to buy is the pivot 102 scaling in and adding if and when 103 develops as support
Elliott Wave: You can see the Elliott Wave count on the AUD charts, however I need to point out that the last high around 104 can also be the end of an abc correction that started Nov 2011 at 97. So we will be talking about the current pattern about to unfold at 103, I will talk about this in the video so you understand both counts and at what point on is eliminated. Essentially the ABC pattern on the hourly chart, can also be 1,2,3… down?
Trading Strategies: Keep your trading within the sublevels until we work out the larger trend
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,365
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Support 12,272 and 12,300 resistance 12,500 the 12,400 resistance should be broken looking at the corrective price pattern above 12,300. The main development would be 12500 as support, this would put the price at 12,650
Elliott Wave: Once again we search for the top of Wave (2) and the current move up in Jan is subdividing into the later stages, we should stay diligent for the reversal
Trading Strategies: Continue to hold long above 12,272 SG2
S&P500 CFD: 1278
TradingLevels: The price is subgroup2 SG2 12651272|1280 and the price is above 1272 support this is a positive development, the next step if going long is waiting for retested support on 1280
Elliott Wave: The 1 hour SP chart states the pattern up nicely
Trading Strategies: Must have 1280 as support before being long for the short term to 1288
FTSE 100 CFD: 5637
TradingLevels: The number 56 is subtle but quite strong and in this case the 5600 so your ability to recognise support on this price the better. In the bigger picture the pattern from the year 2000 to now is simply working sideways with 5000 as the pivot, so the price being above 5600 delivers an overbought scenario in the bigger picture, so we will look for a top from 5650 to 5800 Elliott Wave can help refine this. I think the FSTE250 is also worth a look as it is dragging down the FSTE100 you can see this on the Daily chart, as the 250 has refused to move higher with the 100
Elliott Wave: Targets 5772 - 5800
Trading Strategies: I would be looking to sell short around the 5772 – 5800 but of course we don’t do that, we wait for the turn down and then study the retest, the retesting price and the volume to confirm the price action
SPI CFD 4113
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: While the MediumLevel ML4 | 4000 is support the market is supported, however the larger pattern is presenting a bearish pattern, this would be confirmed if the price touched the 4000 or technically 4037
Elliott Wave: The move down from 4200 to 4100 is either the wave 1 or A, this is the same for the AUDUSD
Day Trading Strategies: If the top of Group1 4130 developed support then go long you could also start scaling in off the 4120 as retested support and trade to 4150 otherwise it’s a choppy ride into 4100 (Retail Figures 11.30AM)
Technical Analysis Summary
US and European markets are edging higher and China Shanghai are still in a solid trend down and Australia is stuck in the middle moving sideways and everyone is simply wondering if Australia will break to the upside or the downside?
The Australian market has psychological support on 4000 and this is the line in the sand, I say this basic observation because the current sidewards pattern sitting on 4000 since August 2010 is looking more like a Triangle pattern which, if so, would break lower through 4000, we can see many of our stocks are also trending down, there are some that are holding up like CBA but there are not many trending up like TLS NWS there is a general pressure building on 4000, the main catalyst for any rise would have to come from the Shanghai finding a low now, any break lower will create a lower low on the ASX200.
We do feel that the US and European markets will creep and struggle higher but any upside is limited, the Xmas Retail Figures for most countries are out this week, this would have been partly the driver for employment in most countries but once this is done and dusted further upside would struggle.
Our trading strategies would be trade smaller position sizes and shorter time frame such as the Daily Robo and be on the defensive side rather than the aggressive side when using the Daily Robo, meaning all the little aspect, such as if the closing passes the opening reduce and make that 30 rather than 25%
Notes on using Elliott Wave;
It’s important to trade what you see, rather than getting opinionated and fixed on a certain market directions with Elliott Wave, sure Elliott wave can be extremely helpful but it can be dreadfully wrong, I have understood this point well and this is why I place support and resistance i.e. tradinglevels first in my trading decisions, I have been using Elliott since 1983 and I have only met a few traders that can consistently take money from the markets using only Elliott analysis. If you’re patient and wait for the right set ups using Elliott then fine, but if you’re trading a lot using Elliott you are playing the guessing game and guessing the direction every day is not an easy task. If you can combined the Elliott theory pattern recognition with the tradinglevels and read the volume, then you are on the right track in developing confidence in what you see. You need to know and understand the exact price points for the entry, stop and exit before you place a trade, the more you can remove the guessing game and the emotional factor the more consistent your trading will become.
Trading Quote
Losing is lonely, but it can be the easiest way to get to know yourself.
It builds a base in which we never have to go below again.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD Trade Balance -294M -282M
9:30am AUD AIG Construction Index 39.6
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m 5.5%
11:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.2%
5:45pm CHF Unemployment Rate 3.1% 3.0%
6:00pm EUR German Trade Balance 12.6B 12.6B
6:45pm EUR French Trade Balance -5.8B -6.2B
7:15pm CHF Retail Sales y/y 0.6% -0.2%
8:30pm EUR Sentix Investor Confidence -23.5 -24.0
10:00pm EUR German Industrial Production m/m -0.4% 0.8%
12:30am CAD Building Permits m/m -3.1% 11.9%
2:30am CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
4:40am USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
7:00am USD Consumer Credit m/m 7.2B 7.6B
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Friday, 23 December 2011
Technical Analysis
Click to Technical Analysis to Watch the Video.
About TradingLounge:- One of Australia’s leading Technical Analysis companies that created the TradingLevels Technical Analysis concept. This Technical Analysis Report covers the international market drivers Dow Jones, SP500, FSTE, DAX, SPI, AUDUSD, EURUSD, US Dollar, Copper, Oil, Gold, understanding the market drives assists us in CFD Trading and Share Trading for the ASX NYSE NASDAQ Analyst Peter Mathers TradingLounge.com.au FREE TRIAL
Technical Analysis Report
Dow Jones – 11,973 -1.73%
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1660
Oil WTI CFD: 98
Copper CFD: 345
US Dollar CFD: 79.50
EURUSD 1.32
AUDUSD 1.072
Dow Jones CFD 11,954
S&P500 CFD: 1230
FTSE 100 CFD: 5418
SPI CFD 4183
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- A negative reaction to last week's European sovereign-debt summit by credit-ratings firms sent U.S. stocks sharply lower Monday, erasing all of the stock-market gains that followed the summit Friday.Technical Analysis CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1660
The Gold follows stock on another possible down grading of the Euro zone.
The corrective pattern sitting on 1700 breaks lowers i.e. wave two and now a strong small third wave is unfolding, the next level and the first target is MediumLevel 1650 however lower is expected, we are now simply counting five waves down.
If you have added to shorts under 1700 you can cover a percentage at 1650 and add again as 1650 becomes the resistance as wave four, the wave four could bounce back to 1672 -80 this will depend where wave three completes e.g. on or below 1650. Also be aware of the wave count on the Euro and SP500 as these two will be moving together and the Dollar in the same structure but up
Silver has also made the break lower look to add when 30 becomes the resistance, 28 will be the first other level to add also, be expect a retest from 28 to 30Oil WTI CFD: 98
While Oil is below resistance 103 (group1) and above 95 support, its trading within its range basically sticking to 100 (TL1) Oil is being pulled by stock to a degree and current move down with commodities, Indices and currencies, we have labelled this move down in the SP500 and Euro as corrective for the short term but can easily be the beginning of the larger move down. Refer to the Oil charts we are nearly at the point of considering the top of Wave (2) as the last high around 102 however we do need to confirm the move down as five waves (impulse) first. We can look to scale in short on the second failed retest of 100 and under 98, there is risk in this as it would not have the evidence of an impulse wave at that stage, any way we have time, let’s look to the other markets even base metals to look for confirmation of further downsideBase Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.45-
US Nickel: Last: 8.27-
US Zinc: Last: 0.86-
US Aluminium Last: 0.83-Copper CFD: 345
Copper is moving in much the same pattern as the Euro over the last month, so with the Euro we are counting the move down as a wave B, so the move down in copper such also be counted as a Wave (b) at least for the time being until proven wrong, copper will eventually break lower, it’s just that we are in a larger correction from September and sideways corrections can get complicated but they always break lower once completed.
The 350 has and is the balance line and trading under this Midpoint Levels bring softness however it would require a few retests to confirm the 350 as resistance and this can come from the 340 or 345, as mentioned the move down is counting the same as the Euro i.e. corrective so we should see a move up to 372 but remember the larger pattern is down and may not reach that price it can break lower, but first let’s see how the Euro tests the old lows around the 13150. US BHP dropped from 75 to 72 over night.Technical Analysis Forex
US Dollar CFD: 79.50
The main trend is up however two possibilities for the short term, one, is the price move straight above 80 (TL8) in to Group1 to create the first high above the level then a correction back into 80 or the second possibility is the price reacts again at 80 and moves back to 78 and then pushes up above 80 as in the 4 Hour Dollar chart.
The TradingLevels Classic pattern at TL8, The dollar has already touched on 80 back in Oct, the ‘Arrival’ then the ‘Reaction’ then ‘Support’ on 75 and now the ‘First High Above the Level’ then the correction
EURUSD 1.32
Technical Analysis:: Retesting Sept lows 13145 would have to expect a bounce, the Dollar at 80 a reaction of some degree?
The 134 is now the market resistance and the price is working with 132 this is the pivot within Subgroup1 and the 130 is Minor Group1, so its Subgroup1 of Minor Group1, this is what the support has been here since 2008, the 130 is Minor Group1 of 1.00 It takes a while to get you head around the anatomy of Group1 but it’s worth it as it defines support and resistance in this region
Elliott Wave: Wave B down to 132 or the larger move down Wave (iii) Either way the weekly and monthly trends are down
Trading Strategy: Choose your degree of structure to trade and set your rules around that. A monthly Robo trade set up has just triggered.AUDUSD 1.072
Technical Analysis: Expect support and bounce from 1.00 the Elliott charts also show support for a wave count at 1.00
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart)
Trading Strategy: You have to trade the sublevel being so close to 1.00 (TL1) the other point here is that 1.00 is the line in the sand for the market being positive or negative, currently the price is retesting 1.00 for support and it can move through 1.00 to 98 it would only be on a few failed retests of 1.00 and a move under 98 the first MinorLevel that we would consider the larger picture weak, the price range since Oct has been narrowing into 1.00 and the next main trend will come out of this narrowing trading range and that’s the trade we want.Indices
Dow Jones CFD 11,954
Technical Analysis:: 12,000 is still the line in the sand and the price is still developing around it and will continue to do so, it will end up as support or resistance, in the meantime we can work the internal wave count
Elliott Wave: Yes the move down can be bearish but it can also be corrective, we simply have to wait for a certain point in the unfolding structure, I can explain this more clearly in the video
Trading Strategy: Wait, the move down last night needs to complete its five waves down into 11900 or below, then a move up above 12000. We don’t know if the pattern form the higher around 12300on the 8/12th is an abc structure down or the beginnings of the larger impulse, we should know by the end of the next session or the following session and then be able to take positions either long to above 12300 or short for the long term Intermediate Wave (3) down which is quite exciting for bear traders as Wave (3) is the Grizzly Bear stuff! But don’t get too excited we need confirmation first and that can be the 12,000 as retested resistance if not then we expect one more new high in the Dow and maybe not in the SP500 or the NasdaqS&P500 CFD: 1230
Technical Analysis:: SubGroup1 (SG1-1210|1220|1230) if the price locks under the SG1 pivot 1220 as resistance then the price is trapped to 1200 and a larger bearish pattern is unfolding, there are now two levels of resistance SG2 1272 and the Midpoint 1250 that hasn’t been retested, we have a wave count that should touch on 1220 then move up above 1250 and higher, however the price back at 1200 helps create a top being in place
Wave count: ABC correction down to 1220 then up?
Trading Strategy: The price pattern from the high of the 8th is currently in three waves down i.e. bullish corrective, we would need to see five waves (impulse) down to confirm a top being in place. It is important to bring as many markets as possible into the current picture such as the Euro which has the same pattern as the SP and the SP has the same pattern as the US Dollar inverted, the base metals as the same and so are the treasuries so we need to see which one starts the lead, the Nasdaq has a habit of leading to the down side so we can observe that and also the Dax that cannot get back above 6180 (618)FTSE 100 CFD: 5418 Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: expect a move below 5400
Elliott Wave: count five waves down from the last high 5565, the price is close to the end of wave three down, so four and five to go
Trading Strategy: expect a bounce as wave four on 5400 and wave five down into 5372
SPI CFD 4183 Technical Analysis:
Technical Analysis:: The 4272 help perfectly now the 4200 is the pivot in Minor Group1 and if that becomes the retested resistance then the trend is down, the retest will take time, as the 61.8% retracement level target is 4100 so it can reach 4100 then climb back above 4200 as support, we just have to observe it at that point in time.
Elliott Wave: Intraday trend down from last night is completing five waves as is the SP500 and other markets, once this is completed expect a bounce
Trading Strategy: Trade the sublevels and watch the Dow futures cfds during our trading time for leads, also the Euro and the US Dollar as it tassels with 80Technical Analysis: Summary
Well there was no steam after the smallish 186 move up in the Dow yesterday; however we are not better off in having a larger direction as yet and may take another two session to see evidence, this is the picture; in the US markets the high on the 8th and the following pattern on the intraday chart is in three waves down, abc corrective pullback that will complete in the next session, or the three wave abc will turn into five waves ‘Impulse’ wave this would give us the direction down, as five waves in the opposite direction gives us another five waves after and small corrective move and in this case would be enough to call a top is place, both wave counts carry equal weight, so we have to wait. Going long or short right now can have us trapped
Trading QuoteThe trading system gives the trader the ability to control his or her emotional states rather than allowing them to control him. A system is a disciplined method for organizing dynamic, ever-changing market phenomena. Howard Abell
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD FPI m/m -1.3%
10:50am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 0.5% -0.7%
11:01am GBP RICS House Price Balance -25% -24%
11:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 2
11:30am AUD Housing Starts q/q -0.7% -4.7%
5:30pm EUR French CPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%
5:45pm CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
8:30pm GBP CPI y/y 4.8% 5.0%
8:30pm GBP RPI y/y 5.1% 5.4%
8:30pm GBP Core CPI y/y 3.3% 3.4%
8:30pm GBP DCLG HPI y/y -0.9% -1.4%
9:00pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -55.7 -55.2
9:00pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -60.3 -59.1
12:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.6%
12:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.5%
2:00am USD Business Inventories m/m 0.5% 0.0%
Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 42.5 40.6
6:15am USD FOMC Statement
6:15am USD Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Free Stuff on Technical Analysis is available on TradingLounge.com.au site!
About TradingLounge:- One of Australia’s leading Technical Analysis companies that created the TradingLevels Technical Analysis concept. This Technical Analysis Report covers the international market drivers Dow Jones, SP500, FSTE, DAX, SPI, AUDUSD, EURUSD, US Dollar, Copper, Oil, Gold, understanding the market drives assists us in CFD Trading and Share Trading for the ASX NYSE NASDAQ Analyst Peter Mathers TradingLounge.com.au FREE TRIAL
Technical Analysis Report
Dow Jones – 11,973 -1.73%
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1660
Oil WTI CFD: 98
Copper CFD: 345
US Dollar CFD: 79.50
EURUSD 1.32
AUDUSD 1.072
Dow Jones CFD 11,954
S&P500 CFD: 1230
FTSE 100 CFD: 5418
SPI CFD 4183
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- A negative reaction to last week's European sovereign-debt summit by credit-ratings firms sent U.S. stocks sharply lower Monday, erasing all of the stock-market gains that followed the summit Friday.Technical Analysis CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1660
The Gold follows stock on another possible down grading of the Euro zone.
The corrective pattern sitting on 1700 breaks lowers i.e. wave two and now a strong small third wave is unfolding, the next level and the first target is MediumLevel 1650 however lower is expected, we are now simply counting five waves down.
If you have added to shorts under 1700 you can cover a percentage at 1650 and add again as 1650 becomes the resistance as wave four, the wave four could bounce back to 1672 -80 this will depend where wave three completes e.g. on or below 1650. Also be aware of the wave count on the Euro and SP500 as these two will be moving together and the Dollar in the same structure but up
Silver has also made the break lower look to add when 30 becomes the resistance, 28 will be the first other level to add also, be expect a retest from 28 to 30Oil WTI CFD: 98
While Oil is below resistance 103 (group1) and above 95 support, its trading within its range basically sticking to 100 (TL1) Oil is being pulled by stock to a degree and current move down with commodities, Indices and currencies, we have labelled this move down in the SP500 and Euro as corrective for the short term but can easily be the beginning of the larger move down. Refer to the Oil charts we are nearly at the point of considering the top of Wave (2) as the last high around 102 however we do need to confirm the move down as five waves (impulse) first. We can look to scale in short on the second failed retest of 100 and under 98, there is risk in this as it would not have the evidence of an impulse wave at that stage, any way we have time, let’s look to the other markets even base metals to look for confirmation of further downsideBase Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.45-
US Nickel: Last: 8.27-
US Zinc: Last: 0.86-
US Aluminium Last: 0.83-Copper CFD: 345
Copper is moving in much the same pattern as the Euro over the last month, so with the Euro we are counting the move down as a wave B, so the move down in copper such also be counted as a Wave (b) at least for the time being until proven wrong, copper will eventually break lower, it’s just that we are in a larger correction from September and sideways corrections can get complicated but they always break lower once completed.
The 350 has and is the balance line and trading under this Midpoint Levels bring softness however it would require a few retests to confirm the 350 as resistance and this can come from the 340 or 345, as mentioned the move down is counting the same as the Euro i.e. corrective so we should see a move up to 372 but remember the larger pattern is down and may not reach that price it can break lower, but first let’s see how the Euro tests the old lows around the 13150. US BHP dropped from 75 to 72 over night.Technical Analysis Forex
US Dollar CFD: 79.50
The main trend is up however two possibilities for the short term, one, is the price move straight above 80 (TL8) in to Group1 to create the first high above the level then a correction back into 80 or the second possibility is the price reacts again at 80 and moves back to 78 and then pushes up above 80 as in the 4 Hour Dollar chart.
The TradingLevels Classic pattern at TL8, The dollar has already touched on 80 back in Oct, the ‘Arrival’ then the ‘Reaction’ then ‘Support’ on 75 and now the ‘First High Above the Level’ then the correction
EURUSD 1.32
Technical Analysis:: Retesting Sept lows 13145 would have to expect a bounce, the Dollar at 80 a reaction of some degree?
The 134 is now the market resistance and the price is working with 132 this is the pivot within Subgroup1 and the 130 is Minor Group1, so its Subgroup1 of Minor Group1, this is what the support has been here since 2008, the 130 is Minor Group1 of 1.00 It takes a while to get you head around the anatomy of Group1 but it’s worth it as it defines support and resistance in this region
Elliott Wave: Wave B down to 132 or the larger move down Wave (iii) Either way the weekly and monthly trends are down
Trading Strategy: Choose your degree of structure to trade and set your rules around that. A monthly Robo trade set up has just triggered.AUDUSD 1.072
Technical Analysis: Expect support and bounce from 1.00 the Elliott charts also show support for a wave count at 1.00
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart)
Trading Strategy: You have to trade the sublevel being so close to 1.00 (TL1) the other point here is that 1.00 is the line in the sand for the market being positive or negative, currently the price is retesting 1.00 for support and it can move through 1.00 to 98 it would only be on a few failed retests of 1.00 and a move under 98 the first MinorLevel that we would consider the larger picture weak, the price range since Oct has been narrowing into 1.00 and the next main trend will come out of this narrowing trading range and that’s the trade we want.Indices
Dow Jones CFD 11,954
Technical Analysis:: 12,000 is still the line in the sand and the price is still developing around it and will continue to do so, it will end up as support or resistance, in the meantime we can work the internal wave count
Elliott Wave: Yes the move down can be bearish but it can also be corrective, we simply have to wait for a certain point in the unfolding structure, I can explain this more clearly in the video
Trading Strategy: Wait, the move down last night needs to complete its five waves down into 11900 or below, then a move up above 12000. We don’t know if the pattern form the higher around 12300on the 8/12th is an abc structure down or the beginnings of the larger impulse, we should know by the end of the next session or the following session and then be able to take positions either long to above 12300 or short for the long term Intermediate Wave (3) down which is quite exciting for bear traders as Wave (3) is the Grizzly Bear stuff! But don’t get too excited we need confirmation first and that can be the 12,000 as retested resistance if not then we expect one more new high in the Dow and maybe not in the SP500 or the NasdaqS&P500 CFD: 1230
Technical Analysis:: SubGroup1 (SG1-1210|1220|1230) if the price locks under the SG1 pivot 1220 as resistance then the price is trapped to 1200 and a larger bearish pattern is unfolding, there are now two levels of resistance SG2 1272 and the Midpoint 1250 that hasn’t been retested, we have a wave count that should touch on 1220 then move up above 1250 and higher, however the price back at 1200 helps create a top being in place
Wave count: ABC correction down to 1220 then up?
Trading Strategy: The price pattern from the high of the 8th is currently in three waves down i.e. bullish corrective, we would need to see five waves (impulse) down to confirm a top being in place. It is important to bring as many markets as possible into the current picture such as the Euro which has the same pattern as the SP and the SP has the same pattern as the US Dollar inverted, the base metals as the same and so are the treasuries so we need to see which one starts the lead, the Nasdaq has a habit of leading to the down side so we can observe that and also the Dax that cannot get back above 6180 (618)FTSE 100 CFD: 5418 Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: expect a move below 5400
Elliott Wave: count five waves down from the last high 5565, the price is close to the end of wave three down, so four and five to go
Trading Strategy: expect a bounce as wave four on 5400 and wave five down into 5372
SPI CFD 4183 Technical Analysis:
Technical Analysis:: The 4272 help perfectly now the 4200 is the pivot in Minor Group1 and if that becomes the retested resistance then the trend is down, the retest will take time, as the 61.8% retracement level target is 4100 so it can reach 4100 then climb back above 4200 as support, we just have to observe it at that point in time.
Elliott Wave: Intraday trend down from last night is completing five waves as is the SP500 and other markets, once this is completed expect a bounce
Trading Strategy: Trade the sublevels and watch the Dow futures cfds during our trading time for leads, also the Euro and the US Dollar as it tassels with 80Technical Analysis: Summary
Well there was no steam after the smallish 186 move up in the Dow yesterday; however we are not better off in having a larger direction as yet and may take another two session to see evidence, this is the picture; in the US markets the high on the 8th and the following pattern on the intraday chart is in three waves down, abc corrective pullback that will complete in the next session, or the three wave abc will turn into five waves ‘Impulse’ wave this would give us the direction down, as five waves in the opposite direction gives us another five waves after and small corrective move and in this case would be enough to call a top is place, both wave counts carry equal weight, so we have to wait. Going long or short right now can have us trapped
Trading QuoteThe trading system gives the trader the ability to control his or her emotional states rather than allowing them to control him. A system is a disciplined method for organizing dynamic, ever-changing market phenomena. Howard Abell
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD FPI m/m -1.3%
10:50am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 0.5% -0.7%
11:01am GBP RICS House Price Balance -25% -24%
11:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 2
11:30am AUD Housing Starts q/q -0.7% -4.7%
5:30pm EUR French CPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%
5:45pm CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
8:30pm GBP CPI y/y 4.8% 5.0%
8:30pm GBP RPI y/y 5.1% 5.4%
8:30pm GBP Core CPI y/y 3.3% 3.4%
8:30pm GBP DCLG HPI y/y -0.9% -1.4%
9:00pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -55.7 -55.2
9:00pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -60.3 -59.1
12:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.6%
12:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.5%
2:00am USD Business Inventories m/m 0.5% 0.0%
Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 42.5 40.6
6:15am USD FOMC Statement
6:15am USD Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Free Stuff on Technical Analysis is available on TradingLounge.com.au site!
Elliott Wave Theory Gold
Gold 1 Hour Chart
Tuesday, 13 December 2011 at 6:40:00PM AEST
Elliott Wave, Gold was sharply lower yesterday, with a very strong momentum, so we suspect that a recent fall was a third wave price action. So if that’s the case, then we know that further weakness should be seen, as current recovery is just a wave iv pull-back, which will ideally find a top around 1670 area. From there intra-day traders will look for a fall on the short side again, while market trades below 1703. CHART GOLD A December 2011 - downtrend acceleration
A strong Elliott Wave acceleration has occurred yesterday after the support line of a corrective channel from September lows was broken. we can see A very sharp move here, which has a personality of a third wave. As such, it seems that we are in wave (C) leg headed now towards 1530. Short-term critical region is at 1724! CHART GOLD B GOLD Daily Chart
11 December 2011 Gold - looking for a fall into 1530 area
We believe that Elliott Wave top is in place on gold, after an impulsive fall from 1920 followed by a corrective rally from 1530, which already shows first signs of completion around 1800 zone, labelled as wave (B) on the chart! Notice that prices found the resistance in the past few weeks at 61.8-78.6% retracement area, which is also a very typical Fibonacci reversal zone. A break of 1662 will be trigger for wave (C) weakness into 1530 zone! CHART GOLD C
Free Stuff on Technical Analysis is available on TradingLounge.com.au site!
Tuesday, 13 December 2011 at 6:40:00PM AEST
Elliott Wave, Gold was sharply lower yesterday, with a very strong momentum, so we suspect that a recent fall was a third wave price action. So if that’s the case, then we know that further weakness should be seen, as current recovery is just a wave iv pull-back, which will ideally find a top around 1670 area. From there intra-day traders will look for a fall on the short side again, while market trades below 1703. CHART GOLD A December 2011 - downtrend acceleration
A strong Elliott Wave acceleration has occurred yesterday after the support line of a corrective channel from September lows was broken. we can see A very sharp move here, which has a personality of a third wave. As such, it seems that we are in wave (C) leg headed now towards 1530. Short-term critical region is at 1724! CHART GOLD B GOLD Daily Chart
11 December 2011 Gold - looking for a fall into 1530 area
We believe that Elliott Wave top is in place on gold, after an impulsive fall from 1920 followed by a corrective rally from 1530, which already shows first signs of completion around 1800 zone, labelled as wave (B) on the chart! Notice that prices found the resistance in the past few weeks at 61.8-78.6% retracement area, which is also a very typical Fibonacci reversal zone. A break of 1662 will be trigger for wave (C) weakness into 1530 zone! CHART GOLD C
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TAGS;
Forex Trading, Currency Trading, Forex Elliott Wave, Forex Trading Strategies, Forex Technical Analysis, Forex Analyst, Forex Trading levels, Forex Analysis, Forex Strategy, Forex Scalping, Forex AUDUSD, Forex EURUSD, Forex GBPUSD, Forex USDCAD, Forex JPYUSD, Forex USDCHF, Elliott Wave AUDUSD, Elliott Wave EURUSD, Elliott Wave US Dollar, Forex Mentor, Forex Trading Coach Indices & FX Trading Strategies ReportDow Jones – 12,184 +1.55%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1711
Oil WTI CFD: 99.77
Copper CFD: 356
US Dollar CFD: 78.59
EURUSD 1.3380
AUDUSD 1.0214
Dow Jones CFD 12,218
S&P500 CFD: 1259
FTSE 100 CFD: 5560
SPI CFD 4255
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1711
The pattern sitting on 1700 is corrective and once completed will break lower.
The price is trapped within SG1 with the current resistance at 1720, if 1710 becomes the resistance then the move down would have started and an expected break down through 1700 would be continuing and the place to add to shorts.
The risk, is in the current correction sitting on 1700, in that, corrective patterns can expand and that a move to 1730 before tuning lower can occur, this would be in line with the Indices and Euro edging higher for a short time.Oil WTI CFD: 99.77
There’s nothing much to say or do with Oil while its working the 100, the price will stay within the MG1{101 | 102 | 103} above and the first MinorLevel below 98 a break out of this range will be the trade as 100 support or resistance.
The Elliott count we have is for a move lower, however the short term over the days ahead is positive in line with one more possible push in Indices such as the Dow to 12,272 – 12,337 area.Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.56+
US Nickel: Last: 8.42+
US Zinc: Last: 0.90+
US Aluminium Last: 0.91+Copper CFD: 356
The price is firmly above the Midpoint 350 and should follow the indices higher, with a target into SG2 {365|372|380} with 372 being the most accurate, a move above 363 would technically satisfy the fifth wave.
The main point here offers a positive bias for the ASX and AUD markets and therefor places us long rather than short for the near term onlyForex
US Dollar CFD: 78.59
While the Indices are edging higher completing their last sub waves over the next two or three sessions the Euro will follow higher and the US Dollar will be forced down back towards 78, start counting five waves down from the last high 79.15 on the 9/12th Once this is completed expect the Dollar to move above 80
EURUSD 1.3380
TradingLevels: The bounce of 132 on the 25/11th is corrective and it’s not completed, we can expect a move up over the sessions ahead in line with the SP500, the Euro and SP500 should top out together
Elliott Wave: Look for five waves up of the last low 13280
Trading Strategy: Support on 1.34 creates the bias for further upsideAUDUSD 1.0214
TradingLevels: Allow it time to develop at 102, the price should stay within the SG2 and SG1 range for a corrective pattern, after this corrective pattern finishes then look to trade either long or short depending if the 102 is support or resistance
Elliott Wave: Corrective pattern up from the last low 10150 it can go as far as 10272 – 103 as c of b) once completed a move down in five waves
Trading Strategy: Use Support on 10230 as support for long trades and 10172 as resistance for the short trade
11:30am AUD Home Loans m/m 0.2% 2.2%
11:30am AUD Trade Balance 2.12B 2.56B
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,218
TradingLevels: 12,000 is support, the next important support is 12,300 this is the top of Group1 and support on 12,300 separates it from the 12,000 story, finding support on top of 12,300 is critical for the next degree of wave structure to be positive, there are a few critical number a stock fails at and the top of Group1 is one of them, so the 12,300 is something we can keep in mind.
Short term wave ratio’s place the next high at 12,272 to 12,337 first expect a small corrective pattern at 12,200 and within SG1 and SG2 of 12,200
Elliott Wave: Looking a five waves up from the last low 11,961 to 12,300+
Trading Strategy: for the market to remain positive, it must remain above 12,134. If you’re going short term long, then wait for solid support on 12,200, a small corrective pattern first across 12000 then support before going long, as the current move up is actually only three waves i.e. corrective abc so it can fail right here, so as long as it stays above 12,500 as support a long trade is safeS&P500 CFD: 1259
TradingLevels: Above the Midpoint and the market is positive
Wave count: count five waves up from the last low 1230, with a possible target 1272 - 1337
Trading Strategy: The Dow is leading to the upside the SP is laggingFTSE 100 CFD: 5560
TradingLevels: We should a new high above the 5600 resistance closer to 5650 - 5672
Elliott Wave: Same as the other Indices looking for five waves up from the last low 5413
Trading Strategy: Resistance SG2{5565|5572|5580} 8:30pm GBP CPI y/y 4.8% 5.0%
SPI CFD 4255
TradingLevels: The price will attempt to get back above 4300 the top of Minor Group1
Elliott Wave: Same as the other indices, looking for five waves up from the last low 4165 technically a move above 4350
Trading Strategy: Trade the sublevels looking for support on SG2 4230 then 4250 the resistance is 4272 and the beginning of supply News: 11:30am AU Trade Balance Summary
186 point rise for the Dow was kinda low for a Euro solution; I wonder how much more steam there is in the trend up…
There are two Elliott wave counts up at least for the short term, one that end right here and another that continues to move up for roughly three days with a target on the Dow around 12,272 to 12,337, we are looking for Wave C of (2) top somewhere up here.
Most Indices have the same short term patterns and we are looking at counting five waves up from Thursday / Fridays lows, once these five waves are completed cover all long trades and wait for short trade set ups. If we are correct we will be looking for long term short trades in the Indices.
Trading QuoteTrading is a game of probabilities. You don’t have to be right every time. You just have to follow your rules.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:00am NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 112.0
10:50am JPY CGPI y/y 1.5% 1.7%
11:30am AUD Home Loans m/m 0.2% 2.2%
11:30am AUD Trade Balance 2.12B 2.56B
4:00pm JPY Household Confidence 38.5 38.6
5:00pm JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 26.0%
12th-15th CNY New Loans 552B 587B
12th-15th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 12.7% 12.9%
6:00pm EUR German WPI m/m 0.3% -1.0%
7:15pm CHF Employment Level 2.79M 2.77M
5:10am CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks
6:00am USD Federal Budget Balance -138.0B -98.5BNOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Visit for Free Stuff on Technical Analysis is available on TradingLounge.com.au site!
Fx Trading Strategies, Forex Trading Strategies Using the Elliott Wave principle in different time frames with the tradinglevels, however the TradingLevels also come with a scalping and money management course at the Tradinglounge.com.au + FX Trading Strategies Free Trial
TAGS;
Forex Trading, Currency Trading, Forex Elliott Wave, Forex Trading Strategies, Forex Technical Analysis, Forex Analyst, Forex Trading levels, Forex Analysis, Forex Strategy, Forex Scalping, Forex AUDUSD, Forex EURUSD, Forex GBPUSD, Forex USDCAD, Forex JPYUSD, Forex USDCHF, Elliott Wave AUDUSD, Elliott Wave EURUSD, Elliott Wave US Dollar, Forex Mentor, Forex Trading Coach Indices & FX Trading Strategies ReportDow Jones – 12,184 +1.55%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1711
Oil WTI CFD: 99.77
Copper CFD: 356
US Dollar CFD: 78.59
EURUSD 1.3380
AUDUSD 1.0214
Dow Jones CFD 12,218
S&P500 CFD: 1259
FTSE 100 CFD: 5560
SPI CFD 4255
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1711
The pattern sitting on 1700 is corrective and once completed will break lower.
The price is trapped within SG1 with the current resistance at 1720, if 1710 becomes the resistance then the move down would have started and an expected break down through 1700 would be continuing and the place to add to shorts.
The risk, is in the current correction sitting on 1700, in that, corrective patterns can expand and that a move to 1730 before tuning lower can occur, this would be in line with the Indices and Euro edging higher for a short time.Oil WTI CFD: 99.77
There’s nothing much to say or do with Oil while its working the 100, the price will stay within the MG1{101 | 102 | 103} above and the first MinorLevel below 98 a break out of this range will be the trade as 100 support or resistance.
The Elliott count we have is for a move lower, however the short term over the days ahead is positive in line with one more possible push in Indices such as the Dow to 12,272 – 12,337 area.Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.56+
US Nickel: Last: 8.42+
US Zinc: Last: 0.90+
US Aluminium Last: 0.91+Copper CFD: 356
The price is firmly above the Midpoint 350 and should follow the indices higher, with a target into SG2 {365|372|380} with 372 being the most accurate, a move above 363 would technically satisfy the fifth wave.
The main point here offers a positive bias for the ASX and AUD markets and therefor places us long rather than short for the near term onlyForex
US Dollar CFD: 78.59
While the Indices are edging higher completing their last sub waves over the next two or three sessions the Euro will follow higher and the US Dollar will be forced down back towards 78, start counting five waves down from the last high 79.15 on the 9/12th Once this is completed expect the Dollar to move above 80
EURUSD 1.3380
TradingLevels: The bounce of 132 on the 25/11th is corrective and it’s not completed, we can expect a move up over the sessions ahead in line with the SP500, the Euro and SP500 should top out together
Elliott Wave: Look for five waves up of the last low 13280
Trading Strategy: Support on 1.34 creates the bias for further upsideAUDUSD 1.0214
TradingLevels: Allow it time to develop at 102, the price should stay within the SG2 and SG1 range for a corrective pattern, after this corrective pattern finishes then look to trade either long or short depending if the 102 is support or resistance
Elliott Wave: Corrective pattern up from the last low 10150 it can go as far as 10272 – 103 as c of b) once completed a move down in five waves
Trading Strategy: Use Support on 10230 as support for long trades and 10172 as resistance for the short trade
11:30am AUD Home Loans m/m 0.2% 2.2%
11:30am AUD Trade Balance 2.12B 2.56B
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,218
TradingLevels: 12,000 is support, the next important support is 12,300 this is the top of Group1 and support on 12,300 separates it from the 12,000 story, finding support on top of 12,300 is critical for the next degree of wave structure to be positive, there are a few critical number a stock fails at and the top of Group1 is one of them, so the 12,300 is something we can keep in mind.
Short term wave ratio’s place the next high at 12,272 to 12,337 first expect a small corrective pattern at 12,200 and within SG1 and SG2 of 12,200
Elliott Wave: Looking a five waves up from the last low 11,961 to 12,300+
Trading Strategy: for the market to remain positive, it must remain above 12,134. If you’re going short term long, then wait for solid support on 12,200, a small corrective pattern first across 12000 then support before going long, as the current move up is actually only three waves i.e. corrective abc so it can fail right here, so as long as it stays above 12,500 as support a long trade is safeS&P500 CFD: 1259
TradingLevels: Above the Midpoint and the market is positive
Wave count: count five waves up from the last low 1230, with a possible target 1272 - 1337
Trading Strategy: The Dow is leading to the upside the SP is laggingFTSE 100 CFD: 5560
TradingLevels: We should a new high above the 5600 resistance closer to 5650 - 5672
Elliott Wave: Same as the other Indices looking for five waves up from the last low 5413
Trading Strategy: Resistance SG2{5565|5572|5580} 8:30pm GBP CPI y/y 4.8% 5.0%
SPI CFD 4255
TradingLevels: The price will attempt to get back above 4300 the top of Minor Group1
Elliott Wave: Same as the other indices, looking for five waves up from the last low 4165 technically a move above 4350
Trading Strategy: Trade the sublevels looking for support on SG2 4230 then 4250 the resistance is 4272 and the beginning of supply News: 11:30am AU Trade Balance Summary
186 point rise for the Dow was kinda low for a Euro solution; I wonder how much more steam there is in the trend up…
There are two Elliott wave counts up at least for the short term, one that end right here and another that continues to move up for roughly three days with a target on the Dow around 12,272 to 12,337, we are looking for Wave C of (2) top somewhere up here.
Most Indices have the same short term patterns and we are looking at counting five waves up from Thursday / Fridays lows, once these five waves are completed cover all long trades and wait for short trade set ups. If we are correct we will be looking for long term short trades in the Indices.
Trading QuoteTrading is a game of probabilities. You don’t have to be right every time. You just have to follow your rules.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:00am NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 112.0
10:50am JPY CGPI y/y 1.5% 1.7%
11:30am AUD Home Loans m/m 0.2% 2.2%
11:30am AUD Trade Balance 2.12B 2.56B
4:00pm JPY Household Confidence 38.5 38.6
5:00pm JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 26.0%
12th-15th CNY New Loans 552B 587B
12th-15th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 12.7% 12.9%
6:00pm EUR German WPI m/m 0.3% -1.0%
7:15pm CHF Employment Level 2.79M 2.77M
5:10am CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks
6:00am USD Federal Budget Balance -138.0B -98.5BNOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Visit for Free Stuff on Technical Analysis is available on TradingLounge.com.au site!
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