Technical Analysis

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Description:
Technical Analysis
TradingLounge’s Peter Mathers Technical Analyst outlines Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies using the Tradinglevels Pattern Recognition Elliott Wave as Trading Education.
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CFD Trading Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1643
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading: The price is retesting 1650 MediumLevel, our Elliott count is expecting it to roll over down, but we should not jump the gun on a short until the evidence is in place.
Also the move down from the 1662 high down to the low 1625, is not a clear five waves (impulse) it’s more like a three wave corrective pattern, if that is the case then the price should climb above 1650 and if that is the case then a long trade would be created off the 1650 support. Any way we need to wait for a set up
Elliott wave: Gold fell nicely into 1625 projected area that we highlighted on Friday. But despite that fall, we are still monitoring a wave structure that will send the market lower. We are talking about an expanded flat formation with wave c) underway, which should find a peak in the next two sessions, ideally around 1648-1652 area.
Silver If the 2972 becomes the retested resistance then short, if the 30.00 becomes support then scale in long through SG1

Oil WTI: 99.65
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading: The technical resistance is 100 and the supply (sellers) 101, The 101 is also the 61.8% rally target. We need to allow this to play out and we need to see the US market stock market e.g. the Dow play out at 12500. Do not go long on Oil while the price is retesting resistance as this is a negative bias
Elliott wave: On our chart the Elliott count is label for further down side, with the price rolling over from the 100, however also be aware of the ABC pattern, that is from the high around the 6th Jan 103.50 to the low around the 13th 98 can be counted as an abc corrective pattern this is why it’s important to allow this pattern to play out, the real short trade if any is much further out there in time, essentially five waves down then three waves back up then the short, we only have three down at the moment

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.66+
US Nickel: Last: 8.84-
US Zinc: Last: 0.88+
US Aluminium Last: 0.95+
Copper CFD: 367
Technical Analysis:
Copper is in an uptrend and should continue, sure it will corrected into and through SG2 365|372|380 and will most likely trade sideways, but the bias is positive and this means the AUSUSD ASX and Asia in general is positive

Forex

Forex US Dollar: 81.62
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading: the dollar is still reacting to the MinorLevel 82.00 (mTL2), the weak spot is it trading under SG2 8172 as this creates the next level down at the Midpoint 8150, this also means the Euro will hold up and stocks can move higher, so the 8172 is a line in the sand you can judge other market and also be on the right side of this price point. This of course helps the AUD up


Forex EURUSD 1.2663
Technical Analysis: Support on 1.2672 puts the price at 1.27 – 1.2720 or even high as 1.2772 before rolling over down. While the US Dollar is under 8172 this would be the case, so what that too. And short under the 12672 and then 65 as retested
Elliott wave: The price did not drop from the 1.2672 and 1.2650 as expected and in fact now find these numbers as support. We are considering the rise as a corrective rally
Day Trading us the 1.2672 as support to get to 1.27 exit and once and if support is creates on 1.27 scale in expect resistance at 1.2720 so this as support is required for higher group, the Dollar would be bouncing of the Midpoint 8150 be then so the 8150 would also be important as support or resistance. And short under the 12672 and then 65 as retested

Forex AUDUSD 1.0316
TradingLevels: The price pattern is slowly edging forwards in developing support on 103
Elliott wave: Once retested support is established look for a long trade to 104
Trading Strategies: Support SG2 10272 you need 103 as support, tested support then seeing the price build through SG1 10310|10320|10330 you know support on top of SG1 10330 creates the higher ground. The current corrective pattern at this 103 can get bigger, because copper should correct somewhat now, however there is talk of China putting money into their system this week, the Shanghai also needs to stay above 2200, also the dollar being under the 8172 is supportive for the aud. But in the end it’s the retests into 103 that you need to observe and work the levels in SG1 especially the support on 10330, if this does happen new highs should be made, but there will be resistances at the Midpoint 10350 and SG2 65,72,80


FTSE 100 CFD: 5641
Day Trading: Subgroup2 (SG2) 5665|5672|5680 is the resistance and supply
Elliott wave: Unsure, however any longs need to have 5672 as support
Trading Strategies: Only go long if 5672 is the support. When the price moves up to this level SG2 the price will react, so give it time to swing around for a while before thinking going long or short.


SPI CFD 4160
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Intraday, support on 4172 is required for long trades, you can take on higher risk is you like and buy above 4150 with stops at 4143 as a move under this stop would have created a corrective rally with further downside to come.
Elliott wave: Still looking at this larger corrective pattern as just that corrective, but the 4150 would really need to hold now otherwise a larger degree of pattern would be unfolding and this opens a more bearish window
Day Trading: The same as yesterday, look for support in SG2. Work any trade from SG2 4165|4172|4180 the 4172 is the important price point. Remember the Shanghai really need to remain above the 2200 and also observe the AUDUSD to see if it can develop support on the 103 this would be help full.


Technical Analysis

US Stocks and Bonds were closed last night, so we can look at the Dax and UK, such as UK BHP being positive and steady, the US Dollar being under 8172 this should reflect back here to some degree of our markets being steady today
The Shanghai market was also down yesterday, but as long as it stays above the 2200 we can consider the low there still forming, but we must trade lightly in all markets at the moment as the US market are still facing resistances, the Dow 12500 SP500 1300 this places a negative bias, the only real positive are the base metals and the possibility on the China market form this current low, but be aware this forming of a low can disappear quickly.

The ASX200 to be positive needs to build on 4200 as support if it slips under the 4150 then it’s not a positive look for this market, any way volumes are light and we should be trading smaller position sizes and short trading ranges

Another weakness in the air is the US reporting this week, as there are something like 40 big companies reporting earns and they are not looking good based on the amount of current downgrading last week, this can be the catalyst for the Dow to rollover under the 12500, so don’t commit to the long side too much

The ASX Q4 2011 Activities / Production Report are out this week you can get them from the link at the top of this page (link to Dow Jones News) look for DJ Asia-Pacific Calendar.

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Trading Quote
You may not understand it fully right now but the market is always right.

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