Trading Strategies

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Trading Strategies

US Gold CFD: 1659
Day Trading
TradingLevels: The support on the MediumLevel is developing and a move to 1672 is likely, the resistances are still Subgroup2 SG2 1665|1672|1680
Elliott wave: There is a case for a ending diagonal triangle developing in the trend, however we must take into consideration that the price is simply being skew by the MediumLevel.
Local stock NCM has developed a small impulse wave (five waves) up off 30.00 (TL3) as support, TRY has a large triangle pattern above 4.00 MediumLevel
Silver: Has good support on 30.00, stops either under 30 or under the SG2 2972 (eg 2963) The 61.8% retracement level is 3200 and probable target, however you’re in Minor Group1 so you know the 31.00 is the first resistance, you can also use the sublevels if your trading shorter time frames.

Oil WTI: 100
Day Trading:
TradingLevels: The second retest is underway and the move down testing 100 require time to unfold, we need to see if it’s corrective or impulse, if corrective the price should stay above 99 the 618% retracement level, so basically it just a matter of observing the unfolding price pattern around the 100 to see if it becomes the support or resistance and then take the trade long or short from there once you can see it.
Elliott wave: The wave count on our chart has the move up from 98 to 102 as a wave two rally; however the pattern going up looks more like an impulse wave, this is why it’s important to just allow time for the current retesting price on the 100 play out. The US Indices will also have a guiding hand in Oil direction so the wave count for the SP500 should be observed too and just to add a little more the base metals tend to support Oil as well and they are looking positive as we can see in the US BHP

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.73+
US Nickel: Last: 8.81-
US Zinc: Last: 0.90+
US Aluminium Last: 0.97-
Copper CFD: 374
Technical Analysis
Copper continues its line up nicely in a wave three, its tussling with the 372 (SG2) as would be expected and looking at the waves in the structure up the perspective would see the prices at 400 the MediumLevel which of course is great for our long trades in the Materials sector and the AUD


Forex

US Dollar: 80.50
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: It appears from the impulse wave down we are going to see a larger corrective pattern at 80.00 TL8 Major TradingLevel
Elliott Wave: The move down from 82 is an impulse wave (five waves) so once its completed expect a abc rally then another five wave down to 80…

EURUSD 1.2850
TradingLevels: The old high is SG2 12872 zone is also the resistance again, because of the five waves up from the last low 12625 area, the US Dollar also has five waves down
Elliott wave: The Impulse wave up from 12625 last low can be Wave C of 4 or a new positive uptrend is starting, so the five waves up can be a Wave 1 if this is correct then expect and abc correction down into the 128 and lower before moving up, if the top is a Wave C of 4 then we will see an Impulse wave down making new lows under the 1.26
Day Trading: allow the current high to pull back into the 128 let’s see if it’s a abc or impulse pattern, then we will know the next trend direction, I would expect it to run up on the back of the next ECB meeting
Strategy, the trend is moving up, so trade the sublevels up, support on 1.2850 is the next step, if support is found then take part profit at 12865 and the rest at 12872, if the 12872 becomes support move back in and add on 12880 support trade to 129 exit

AUDUSD 1.04
TradingLevels: The price is still developing supports, the current support is in SG2 the 10372 zone however you need the 104 as support, there should be another push higher to 10472 area a new high at least
Elliott wave: The wave four on 104 is very messy, be patient and wait for definite support on 104
Day Trading: when 104 support is in place scale in and build the position through SG1 of 104 take at least 50% profit at the Midpoint then wait for support and then exit at 10472
The flipside if the price finds resistance at 10372 then the wave count is wrong.

Indices
"We are still waiting on potential reversal lower on S&P". And if we take a look once again on the 4h chart, we can see that the upward move is just awful, full of overlaps within parallel trend lines. Clearly, a recovery is running out of strength, so we must be prepared for potential bearish reversal but before that occurs; prices can still test higher resistance.

Dow Jones CFD 12,550
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: prices are edging higher in the impulse wave up and a new high should be made. The price now needs to stay above the 12400 otherwise the bias would change from positive to negative and sure there are prices above the 12400 that can create a negative bias but the 12400 is the main one as it’s the 618% retracement level of the impulse wave up from 12300, I have taken the 618 from the 12600 allowing for a new high to complete the structure
Elliott wave: The impulse wave that we have been observing from the 12300 is now in its fifth wave, so we can expect weakness from any new high under the 12600 such as SG2 12572|12580
Day Trading: Allow a session for wave four to complete and then find support back above 12500 for a the next long trade


S&P500 CFD: 1305
TradingLevels: The price is back above 1300 this is a positive, however its still only part of the dance across the floor 1300, expect he first sublevel of SG1 1310 to be the resistance which will look to retest 1300 checking for support?
Elliott Wave: The four chart shows the ending triangle, on the flip side the top of group1 can cause this type of resistance, so just keep this in mind and also include the tradinglevels, that is allow the price time to vibrate at 1300 for a week as it’s still early days at this number
Day Trading: a small retest of 1300 from the 1305/8 or even 1310 and finding support on 1300 can offer the base for the upside but you will need to read that play as it unfolds


FTSE 100 CFD: 5670
TradingLevels: The price is creeping back above the 5700 I still like the 5772 5800 target, the next ECB meeting is the important timing element, I can’t remember off the top of my head when that is, but I will check today, but that is part of the reason for the trend up
Current support is the SG2 5672 zone.
Elliott wave: Once the wave four correction at 5700 is completed then wave five up. The 5720 (72) is a subtle resistance and the 5772 and 5800 are then more real resistance and target points
Day Trading: the SG1 above 5700 is where to scale in, the 72 – 5720 is the pivot and the 5730 as retested support is the lift off point for the 5772 target, the midpoint will also experience supply


SPI CFD 4240
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Support on 4200 is in place the SG2 4265|4272|4280 is the resistance the 4272 is the key price point, there is also an overhead trend line as resistance through this area. The 4300 is obviously a target, it is the top of MinorGroup1 and support on this level creates the break away from 4000 and puts the target at 4500. As Gann would say it’s the fourth time that the price would break through and this would be this time.
Elliott wave: Unsure of the wave count, however what I do know is that the waves up are impulse waves with corrective wave patterns to the downside so there is a trend established.
Day Trading: Continue to trade long using the sublevels, today you would need 4250 as support. Thursday can open higher and trade lower.
11:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 0.0%
11:30am AUD Home Loans m/m 1.1% 0.7%

Technical Analysis

The Dow, we have been observing the impulse wave (five waves) up from 12300 which should be about completed, yes it can push higher to complete the five waves into 12,600 but expect some weakness now that the five waves are nearly finished, that said the trend is up and only if the price trades below 12,400 can we call in a negative bias.

These days the US doesn’t affect the local ASX as much as it did in regards to the general trend, it does have an impact day to day as it’s the last closing price and yes financial events send waves around the globe and more so these days, especially when markets have lost their identities in fear or greed. So we are currently paying more attention to copper and the Shanghai, copper should continue to move up to 400 it will however correct in SG2 zone first we can see US BHP moving up nicely so the Materials sector is driving our ASX, the local banks are over exposed the local property market that is their weakness, so they aren’t going to be much help in this uptrend, as its normally the finance sector that’s leads up from a previous down trend and CBA is not doing that. Any way I reckon it’s the Shanghai market that we need to observe the most and if the price can find support on the 2300 the top of Group1 then that’s the supporting factor for long trade in Resources

Weekly Bullish Cycle, Thursday opening higher and trading lower, if this is the case and the price does trade lower in the afternoon then look at the volume, if the price is moving down and the volume is diminishing then this it’s the best place to buy in the week with Thursday Opening the best place to sell in the week, however we should look to scale in around this timing, such as adding to positions on Friday morning and afternoon if the price is up and the volume is up with a stronger Friday closing is best, then profit taking Tue morning and Wed afternoon, you can also use other countries to hedge to lessen the risk etc.

Trading Quote

Success seems to be connected with action.

Successful people keep moving.

They make mistakes, but they don't quit.

Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous

8:45am NZD CPI q/q 0.4% 0.4%
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11:30am AUD Employment Change 10.3K -6.3K
11:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 5.3% 5.3%
1:00pm CNY CB Leading Index m/m -0.1%
Tentative CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 13.2%
8:00pm EUR Current Account 0.5B -7.5B
8:00pm EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
12:30am CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m 0.9% -0.8%
12:30am USD Building Permits 0.68M 0.68M
12:30am USD Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
12:30am USD Unemployment Claims 389K 399K
12:30am USD CPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%
12:30am USD Housing Starts 0.69M 0.69M
2:00am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 11.3 10.3
2:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -95B

NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.