Elliott wave

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Elliott Wave

News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks were little changed in afternoon trading after three batches of tepid U.S. economic data tempered investor optimism over strong Italian and Spanish debt auctions.

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1652
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The price is working with the 1650 MediumLevel and from a trading point of view we have to allow it to unfold its pattern, if the pattern is bullish corrective (three swings across the level) and then finds support, then the trade is long, if resistance then we start looking for a short trade. The fact that it’s above the 1650 gives it a bullish start, secondly the Copper market (base metals) is extending higher…
Elliott wave: There is an Elliott wave count that completes the move up here at the 1650 and that’s fine however I have learnt over time that we need evidence of a turn before selling and while the price is above a level we don’t short, only on a failed retest and intraday impulse waves down. Either way the next few sessions should be corrective, so we aren’t missing anything, this is the same for silver.

Sliver Expect a corrective pattern at 30.00, don’t trade until you understand the unfolding pattern at 30 TL3 it could take three days to sort itself out the 28.72 SG2 is the support and this is likely to be tested IF the price works under the 30.00, the first support is SG2 of 29.00 i.e. 2965|2972|2980, with 2972 the most important

Oil WTI: 101.80
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Oil is still sitting in Group1 and the first sign of strength would be finding support on the pivot 102, but it’s the 103 the top of Group1 that is the evidence for the safer long trade
Elliott wave: While the price is above 100, the Elliott wave count can is for new highs above 103 to 105. This would be helped by stock, so the Dow would need to push higher from the current lows 12400
Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.62+
US Nickel: Last: 8.91+
US Zinc: Last: 0.88+
US Aluminium Last: 0.95-
Copper CFD: 363
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Copper is now working with Subgroup2 (SG2 – 365|372|380) the price pattern is an impulse wave up and the longer term target is a retest of 400.
The Elliott impulse wave up should see the top of wave three and wave four corrective pattern unfold within SG2 with wave five up towards 400 the MediumLevel ML4. This move strengths most metals and therefore Materials sectors and Asian markets, ASX, Shanghai..
Forex

Forex US Dollar: 81.00
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The move down is the Wave c of the abc corrective pattern we have been tracking and the mirror opposite for the Euro. The Wave c will have five smaller waves in it, so we could see the price move through 81.00 to next support 80.72
Once the Wave c is completed we should see the Dollar move up and the Euro down, so if the Dollar does move down below 81.00 to 8072 etc, then finds supports on 81.00 then look for a long trade scaling in via SG1 of 81

Forex EURUSD 1.2830
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The Euro and SP500 are out of whack so keep an eye on that as they we pull together again. The current move up should spend time at 128, if it does find support after three swings then the target would be 12872 SG2
Elliott wave: Wave c up, like the US Dollar down in five waves, this Wave c up will have five smaller waves, counting from the last low at SG2 12672 zone, at a guess the current high around the 12840 is the top of wave three? With wave four about to unfold back into 128, however the 12840 maybe also the top of the fifth wave, I’m just not too sure.
Trading Strategies: the 12840 top of wave three or five?, so use the levels to trade, that if it’s the top of wave three, then wave four will come back to 128 in a slightly messy corrective pattern, so just allow it to unfold, after at least three swings into 128 if it finds support, then look to trade long when it get back above 128 as support and use SG1 to scale in, with targets at 12872, don’t go long when the price is below 128, because if the top 12840 is the top of wave five, then the bear market is continuing its trend down and you need to be short
Forex AUDUSD 1.0320
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 10372 target was reached, but while the price is above 103 and 10272 the market is positive. Support on group1 10330 is a platform for longs. Keep an eye on the SP500 and Copper as this market is tuned to them.
Elliott wave: There are a few ways to count the current structure, so choose your degree of structure to trade and set your rules around that. The Asian markets seem positive however the US indices are still battling with their resistances so be careful with long trades, we could end up seeing a larger corrective pattern at 103, while the price is above the 10272 consider it positive
Trading Strategies: Trade the sublevels

Indices
Resistance 12500 Dow / SP500 1300 IF they become support, then markets are positive, if supports are broken Dow 12272 / SP500 1272 then negative. Dow target 12,772 SG2 if support is found on 12,500

Dow Jones CFD 12,437
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: There’s not a lot I can add here, we are just observing the patterns unfold, we know there is resistance here, we know indicators are showing the same, we know there would be corrective price action here and not to get involved but also not to make any early predictions until we can see the evidence either in the price action pattern or 12500 as support or resistance, we can see the trend is up, but we can also see weakness in the trend.
Elliott wave: the five wave structure up is still unfolding, its just a bit messy and weak, but targets can be at 12800 / 12772
Trading Strategies: Long off 12400 SG1 and the Midpoint 12450
S&P500 CFD: 1290
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Another retest of 1300 from the 1290
Elliott wave: A move above 1300
Trading Strategies: Same again - support on 1290 creates the long but exit before 1300 and of course use the group1 midpoint and group2
FTSE 100 CFD: 5682
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Long of 5672 the next move should move up through 5700
Elliott wave: Targets 5772 - 5800
Trading Strategies: you may have had problems in the last session, but don’t give up as the corrective pattern looks more completed now, and supports such as SG2 5665|5672|5680 will have more meaning



SPI CFD 4189
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 4200 mTL2 is the pivot within MinorGroup1 this is important as it’s the balance line in within Minor Group1. Support on 4200 creates the long to 4272
Elliott wave: Unsure
Strategies: trading long off 4200 as support, use SG1 4210|4220|4230 to scale in the 4172 SG2 is the zone of support, if the 4172 becomes the resistance then short. The building of support at 4200 will be messy, the breakout – the first high above the level 4200 is likely to retest the 4200 and lower so accommodate this, you know the retest is more important than the break out.


Summary

US markets reacted at their resistance levels 12500 and 1300 Dow / SP but looking at their reaction patterns, they seem to be in three waves down, corrective, is this is the case then we can expect them to climb higher above there resistances.

Positive moves in base and precious metals, which is a positive for the AUDUSD / Materials sector and ASX

I think some of the US banks are reporting tonight so this could be the catalyst for the retest of US resistances… but please check that.

The Shanghai low that we talked about yesterday is still positive, but would really take about a week to develop, but all the same its positive and this is one of the ASX drivers

Weekly Cycle; The Thursday was lower and lower on volume, which is the catalyst for higher price today and if Friday’s closing is strong with confirming volume, then Monday will be a bull day. Trading the cycle is to scale in on Thursday afternoon if you see low volume and then continue to scale in on Friday morning and if you see Friday afternoon closing strong on confirming volume then you would add to longs, if you see the UK rolling over south then you can short that market to hedge ASX trades and also set up USA Robo trades to hedge ASX trades.

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NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.