Trading Strategies

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Trading Strategies

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1642
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: The 1650 MediumLevel is a good resistance and the Subgroup1 (SG1{1610|1620|1630}) as support, this support is support while the SG1 Pivot 1620 holds.
In terms of trading we would not go long while the price is under 1650 we would require this as support, we can also expect corrective price action at 1650. There is an Elliott wave count that finishes here and that’s fine however evidence is required of impulse waves down, if that becomes the case then scaling in under 1620 as resistance and then adding under 1600 would be sensible. If the 1650 does find support, then we can trade to 1700 which is the 61.8% retracement of the previous impulse wave down from 1800, anyway in the meantime we should just observe the battle between 1650 and SG1
Elliott Wave: The retest of 1650 is underway and the wave count up is in three waves but can also be counted in five, standing back for a moment and looking at the possibilities, this rally can also be the first leg of a larger abc rally to 1700 and I will point out why this is so in the video as it relates to the larger pattern down from 1800 to 1500+.
If this current retest fails we need to wait fro the pattern set up and that is, firstly waiting for the reaction at 1650 then finding support on 1630 or 1620 then retesting close to the last high /1650 etc and then rolling over down taking our the last low of support, this will prove the sellers have overwhelmed the buyers, we should also see US Indices do the same and the US Dollar push higher, it would also be good to see base metals do the same, copper.
Sliver at resistance 30.00 MajorLevel, if the price takes out 2956 add small short with stop above 30 and IF the market moves down look to add under 2900, 2872…

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Oil WTI: 102
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: Oil is still trapped in Group1 {101|102|103} above 100 TL1 as support so its positive, but in the next two degrees lower its negative under 103, if it can develop support on 102 the SG1 pivot then that is a plus but at the end of the day its finding support on top of SG1 103 that is the key for a long trade. Oil can move with stock, so the Dow also finding support on12,500 (mTL5) is also important for trading long, not essential but helpful, you can also look to the base metals and as we use copper the 350 as a solid support.
All of this helps with being long on equities with the Robo trading strategies.
Earlier in the week we were looking at Shanghai as it has moved down a lot more than other markets and could see it was oversold and the Elliott wave count was looking for a low and that low may be in now, it certainly has made a sign but would need confirmation in the structure, but while that current low is in place so is support for Asia and commodities.
Elliott Wave: expect further strength on crude towards and above 103.70. Well, in the two sessions prices made a pull-back for almost 61.8%. And so far pull-back appears corrective which fits very nicely into the bullish incomplete structure.

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Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.52+
US Nickel: Last: 8.72-
US Zinc: Last: 0.86+
US Aluminium Last: 0.96+
Copper CFD: 353
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: The next step is finding the Midpoint 350 as support or resistance, we can see the Asian markets pushing up but more importantly we can see support now coming in for Shanghai, all eye on this support as this is the driver, the negative in the market is the US Indices running out of stream, there are indicators also confirming this, but we would need evidence in the wave structure to call a top in and that would be an impulse (five waves) to the down side, I was thinking of a top being in place this week for the US but its not there yet. We can use the 350 as support or resistance for being long or short in the material sectors in the US UK AU markets, the other guide stick is US BHP being above or below 72 for being long or short

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Forex

Forex US Dollar: 81.58
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The move up in the last session up from 81.00 is likely a wave b which will be followed be wave c back down to 81.00 and then push higher, if wrong and the price does move higher then support on 81.72 would be required. This is also reflected in the EURUSD in its wave four, its move down can also be a Wave b or the Wave 5. So use the levels in part to create a strong trade set up and trade shorter degrees of structure while in this 5th or b wave

Forex EURUSD 1.27
TradingLevels: The 1.2720 is the line in the sand as support or resistance for being long or short, as say this to simplify the situation as the Elliott count can have the move down from 128 as wave five or wave b,
Elliott Wave: If the move down from 128 is wave b then expect wave c up as a retest of 128, if the move down is wave five than a new low would be made.
Trading Strategies: The two important numbers at the lower end are 12720 and 12650

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Forex AUDUSD 1.03
TradingLevels: The move up last night from 10272 to 103 is on diminishing volume, so a solid support on 103 would be required for a safer trade up to make new highs above 10350
Elliott Wave: As an alternative count, the pattern on 103 over the last few days can be a wave four, if correct then a move into new highs to 10372
Trading Strategies: Long of 103 as support, building the trade through group1 {10310|10320|10330} the 10320 is helpful but the top of group1 10330 as support is more important to the bigger picture

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Indices
A few side points to mention, the US Earning season have started and the Shanghai has found a support on its low, will it hold is another matter, we will monitor the volume in the rally.

Dow Jones CFD 12,437
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 12500 is the line in the sand here, as support or resistance, however this will take time to develop. There are indicators and sentiment indicators creating over bought and divergences and an Elliott count for a high around here, but either way lets just let the 12500 play out as support or resistance, we have plenty of time to wait for a set up here long or short as a long would require a series of swings before support and resistance would require a few retests. There will be corrective price action here at 12500 and it is a target price point for us, but let’s just wait and see what develops before making a decision
Elliott Wave: As you know we are looking for a top here, but we simply need to time to see
Trading Strategies: Wait for support or resistance, resistance and retests would be quicker than support if is was going to go that way, on the short side you would be looking for the second retest of 12500 to fail and take out the last low.

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S&P500 CFD: 1290
TradingLevels: The 1,300 is the resistance so expect a reaction there.
Elliott Wave: Same -The structure up is still going so expect he price to find a top this week at or above 1300. Count the impulse wave (5 waves) from the 1265 (SG2) up, you can see it still had further to go
Trading Strategies: Day trading, support on 1290 creates the long but exit before 1300

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FTSE 100 CFD: 5690
TradingLevels: while the 5650 is support the pattern up is supported, 5650 as resistance creates short set ups
Elliott Wave: Same - Targets 5772 - 5800
Trading Strategies: You could work SG2 for a trade SG2 5665|5672|5680 expect the price to continue to swing across this level but wait for support or resistance here, with 5672 being key.

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SPI CFD 4189
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 4200 mTL2 is the pivot within MinorGroup1 this is important as it’s the balance line in Group1.
Elliott Wave: We were looking for five wave up from 4100 to 4200, they are now in place, so expect a corrective pattern at and across 4200, it can also fail here.
Trading Strategies: Expect the tradinglevels Classic pattern across 4200. So we don’t chase the first new highs above 4200 as the break out is not as important as the retest, you are likely to get trapped, expect a corrective pattern above below across 4200. Once this has developed then you can start working the SG1 above 4200 and the SG2 below 4200
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Trading Strategies

The US markets have met resistance i.e. DJI 12,500 and SP1300 (nearly) so there is not a lot of upside potential right now, sure if they find these levels as support, then fine, long it is, but they are resistance and we don’t buy into that risk.

The upside potential for Asia is from the Shanghai market as an Elliott wave low has been falling into place, so we should observe the support, pattern and volume, the first resistance is 2300 top of group1 and the second is 2500 this is where is can technically rally to before rolling over. The 2300 resistance is a solid one as it comes with supply. In the mean time we are likely to see the Shanghai retest 2200 before any attempt to push higher, so we could be a week away before knowing if a medium term low is forming, which in turn would assist the ASX in moving higher, the ASX finding support on 4200 is the first step in a real move up, but it is the 4300 the top of MinorGroup1 that is the real evidence and there is a lot of supply there, if support is found on 4200 over the days ahead, the target would be 4272 SG2 zone.

Weekly Cycle; Wed higher close, Thursday open higher close lower. If it does close lower today then it’s the volume that is the important aspect, that is, if the price moves down on lower volume that is a bullish sign.

Trading Quote

You decide your fate; the market doesn’t

Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous

11:00am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -1.0%
12:30pm CNY CPI y/y 4.0% 4.2%
12:30pm CNY PPI y/y 1.6% 2.7%
12th-16th NZD REINZ HPI m/m 1.1%
4:00pm JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 46.3 45.0
5:00pm JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 15.8%
5:30pm EUR French CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3%
6:00pm EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.7% 0.7%
6:45pm EUR French Gov Budget Balance -99.4B
8:00pm EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.1% -0.9%
8:30pm GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.0% -0.7%
8:30pm GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.1% -0.7%
9:00pm EUR Industrial Production m/m -0.2% -0.1%
11:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility 275B 275B
11:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50%
Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement
11:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate 1.00% 1.00%
12:30am CAD NHPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%
12:30am EUR ECB Press Conference
12:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.2%
12:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.2%
12:30am USD Unemployment Claims 370K 372K
2:00am GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.3%
2:00am USD Business Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.8%
2:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -76B
6:00am USD Federal Budget Balance -79.0B -137.3B

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.