Video; http://youtu.be/JT0HiwUAsQw
Technical Analysis
Dow Jones 12,660 -0.58%
Base Metals Steady
US Gold CFD: 1724
Oil WTI: 100.75
Copper CFD: 389
US Dollar: 79.40
EURUSD 1.3120
AUDUSD 1.0630
Dow Jones CFD 12,742
S&P500 CFD: 1316
FTSE 100 CFD: 5770
DAX CFD: 6500
SPI CFD 4271
Trading Education
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stock indexes ended mixed Friday after a reading on domestic economic growth fell short of expectations
US Gold CFD: 1738
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The supply and the 78.6% are close to 1750 the Midpoint so expect selling there.
The first resistance is SG2 1665|1772|1780 with the 1772 being the important level.
Then next level is the (mTL8) 1800 the profit taking number, these number are important when you start looking at the wave count in stocks like NCM as you can easily count five waves up from their lows, so they will also go through and abc correction
Elliott Wave: There are two counts we are tracking the bullish count and that’s a large impulse wave up to 2,000 (TL2) as on our Elliott charts.
The other is the bearish count that would complete the trend up under the 1,800, essentially turning with the US Indices and the Euro to the downside with the US Dollar up.
Silver: Possible next top, counting the five waves up off the 30.00 would be around the 3450 to 3500 make sure you lock in profits close to 35.00 if we are wrong, then re-enter using the 3500 as the tested support
Oil WTI: 99.68
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Long with a break above 101 and short under 98.
Elliott Wave: The pattern we have been tracking is still working its self into a corner and will make a break this week either way, so oil traders get ready for being long or short, I will explain the pattern in the video.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.86+
US Nickel: Last: 9.80+
US Zinc: Last: 0.96-
US Aluminium Last: 1.00-
Copper CFD: 389
Technical Analysis:
Will meet 400 the MediumLevel this week and stop trending for a while, however the price should stay above the SG2 372 and eventually edge higher and this price action will reflect in Material sectors through the world. Another guide stick is US BHP as its slowly developing support on the MajorLevel 80 (TL8)
Forex
The euro increased amid optimism Greece was making progress in debt-restructuring talks with bondholders.
US Dollar: 78.90
Technical Analysis:
The Wave A down is still in progress and the Wave A up in the Euro in progress on the premise of the ECB sorting out Greeks debt, if and when these talks show weakness we will see the Wave B up retesting 80.
Lower targets would be the 78.50 to 78 which is close to the 50/62% retracement level, this leaves the Euro at 133+
EURUSD 1.3218
TradingLevels: The Euro is trending up nicely, expect a small abc corrective pattern across 132 then a push higher
Elliott Wave: Euro reached even lower levels seen yesterday, and now minor fall from the top appears to be wave (a), only first leg of a corrective pull-back, which will probably test previous swing highs around 1.0340-1.0370.
Trading Strategies: wait for the abc correction at 132, the scale in long through SG1 to 133
AUDUSD 1.0655
TradingLevels: Resistances 1.0772 – 1.08.
Elliott Wave: We still think that reversal from a top is corrective, part of a larger incomplete bullish trend, but we are not sure if wave four is already finished. Simply because the minor decline from 1.0686 can be counted in five waves, so it’s likely only one leg of a corrective pull-back that may retest 38.2%.
Trading Strategies: understand the comments on Elliott then use the sublevels. Support on the Midpoint 10650 is the key to higher ground and you know the 10672 is what you need to get past to add to the trade
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,663
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The expected reaction at 12,800 mTL8 is under way , we need to wait and see if the move down becomes impulsive or corrective
A move under 12500 and the trend up is broken.
Elliott Wave: The DJI appears to have five waves down, the Futures appear to have three waves down, so we are going to have to see more patterns.
Trading Strategies: Only go long with 12720 (72) as support, otherwise its further down and a move under the last low 12630 would be the short or even 12650 as retested resistance
S&P500 CFD: 1316
TradingLevels: Expect a move back to 1300, if however the price finds support on top of SG1 1330 then this would create a move to 1350 the Midpoint
Elliott wave: Back to 1300 - 1290 (38.2% Retracement)
Trading Strategies: Expect choppy price action between 1310 and 1300
FTSE 100 CFD: 5728
TradingLevels: The reaction from 5800 (mTL8) is unfolding, day trading support are 5720 and 5700.
Elliott Wave: It’s still too early, but it appears five small waves down from 5800 is unfolding, that would mean a bounce off 5700 in three waves (abc Zigzag pattern) back to supply at 5765 SG2 and then down again in five waves. Seeing if the Dax find support on 6500 the MediumLevel will be influencing on the bullish side
Trading Strategies: If your short from the5772 then cover at 5700 and wait.
DAX CFD: 6515
Technical Analysis: Give the price a few sessions at 6500 MediumLevel, lets simply see if this level develops support or as resistance. The real support is still at 6400, so the Dax is positive.
SPI CFD 4282
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: 4300 is the top of MinorGroup1 and support on this level creates the 4500 target price point, this would be in line with Shanghai reaching 2500 but first finding support on 2300 which is also a MinorLevel Group1
Elliott Wave: The main trend is up, but its dealing with old highs at 4300, so expect further corrective patterns first.
Day Trading: Use the 4272 as support or resistance, be on the right side of this sublevel
Summary
US Indices can have a top in place now, as we have been observing the wave structures ending impulsing sub waves finalise. That said we now need evidence of this and that would be seeing sets of impulse waves (five waves) edge down, another way to view this is a break of 12,500 on the Dow, sure that’s quite a way down, but it does break the main trend structure up. The main event next week in the US is of course Facebook coming on the market and this will be the catalyst for any moves in either direction, from my limited readings about the Facebook subject its earning do not match its anting value and therefore has a element of failure as a float, I guess the big bucks will see this overvalued aspect but there is probably enough smaller players to make up the hype, any way an interesting even next week.
China is back from holidays on Monday and should continue to lift higher with the target at 2500; the base metals are still trending nicely helping up the ASX, however the 4300 is required as support to get to the 4500 target and finding support on 4300 can actually take two weeks as its dealing with old highs, so a pullback at 4300 would be normal.
Europe is all about the Greek bailout talks, the results of this will be in the Euro, the Elliott count would be looking for support on 130 then pushing to 132 and then rolling over south.
Trading Quote
If you don’t have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
Monday January 30, 2012
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m -0.4% 0.7%
All Day EUR EU Economic Summit
12:30am USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.1%
12:30am USD Personal Spending m/m 0.2% 0.1%
12:30am USD Personal Income m/m 0.4% 0.1%
Australian Corporate Calendar
Navitas Ltd (NVT.AU) Interim 2012 Results presentation
Australian Worldwide Exploration Ltd (AWE.AU) December Quarterly Report
Navitas Ltd (NVT.AU) Interim 2012 Results
Origin Energy Ltd (ORG.AU) Quarterly Production Report
Resource Generation (RES.AU) December Quarterly Report
Woolworths Ltd (WOW.AU) Q2 2012 Sales
Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (KCN.AU) December Quarterly Report
Lynas Corporation (LYC.AU) December Activities Report
Ceramic Fuel Cells Ltd (CFU.AU) Trading statement
Cockatoo Coal Ltd (COK.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited SAR.AU Quarterly Activities Report
Aston Resources Ltd (AZT.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Panoramic Resources Limited (PAN.AU) December Quarterly Report
Cudeco Limited (CDU.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Bathurst Resources Limited (BTU.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Dart Energy Limited (DEGEF) Quarterly Activities Report
Rex Minerals Limited (RXM.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Integra Mining Limited (IGR.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Ramelius Resources Limited December Quarterly Activities Report
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
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