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News
International companies trading in New York ended lower Friday as investors anticipated credit downgrades of a number of euro-zone countries that were announced after the close
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1639
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The Elliott wave count up from 1520 to the current high can be counted in Elliott wave theory in three different ways, so we should treat our opinions lightly. The first aspect is while the price is above 1600 its supported and would only short it the 1600 was the resistance. now that that is out of the way we can focus on the price action at the MediumLevel 1650, we also understand that sublevel supports are in group1 SG1 1610|1620|1630 so the expected corrective behaviour at the 1650 would naturally find supports in SG1 as its doing now, there would also be a series of retests on 1650, after about three to five swings we would simply see the 1650 MediumLevel price as support or resistance and would trade from that. We should also take the base metals on board and we use copper for this and copper is trending up and while that is the case, gold is likely to stay not only above 1600 but 1620 and retest 1650
Elliott wave: There are two way you can count the 1520 move up, two in a corrective pattern and one in an positive impulse wave, so we should tread lightly using Elliott in this degree, we should only use it in the sublevel environment for the time being. As Gold is banging its head against resistance 1650 so is the Dow at 12500, we can see the Dow developing overlapping wave structures – weakness
At a guess I would expect the corrective patterns in Gold and US Indices to expand, so keep trading ranges within sublevels degree until the patterns for both of these markets become clear, you don’t would to keep guessing the direction while we are in a corrective pattern that we don’t understand with enough certainty, the time will come to trade, patience.
There is one point of weakness that you can watch and that is Oil as oil is likely to drag the US Indices down, if the retest of 100 TL1 fails and rolls over the US Indices will feel the pressure. There is of course a holiday in the US on Monday.
Sliver While the price is above SG2 2880|2872|2865 the market is supported and you know the price is unfolding across the Major TradingLevel TL3 | 30.00 and that we don’t trade until it’s finished.Oil WTI: 99.10
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Bias changes to bearish now that the price is under 100 TL1 and we are looking at a series of retests of TL1
98.00 (mTL8) is the first MinorLevel under 100 and is the first support, the next MinorLevel is 95 (mTL5 and also a Midpoint between the 100 and 90, the next important level of the next smaller degree is sublevel 96.50, use all of these as support and resistance for entries and stops. If and once the price is under 95 as resistance then the price is part of the 90 story and you need to understand the levels above and below 90.00 MediumLevel (ML9)
Elliott wave: The Elliott wave count is down for Oil, so the series of retests of TL1 is the key for shorts. If you can match the wave count with the retests it will help your entries and stops or you may prefer to use this to trade energy sector stocks, also use the levels and the volume to confirm the price behaviour Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.63
US Nickel: Last: 8.89-
US Zinc: Last: 0.88-
US Aluminium Last: 0.94-Copper CFD: 363
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: 350 as resistance and the base metals are bias bearish, this would also reflect in other markets previous metals, currencies and stock / materials, so it’s a simple way of managing risk and direction.
That said the trend up is still displaying strength, the next resistances are SG2 365|372|380 with the 72 being the important price point, support on this creates the next level 400 MediumLevel ML4.
Expect corrective price action at SG2 which in turn will show up in other markets i.e. ASX/ AUDUSD…
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.70
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: the ABC correction is completed and the move up is well underway, if you got from 81.00 SG1 to 82.00 well done.
Expect the normal tradinglevels Classic pattern to unfold across 81.00. That is, the reaction at 81, then searching for support SG2 or the Midpoint, then a push above 81.00, creating the first high above this level. Then a larger ABC Zigzag 5-3-5 correction across 81.00, then a move to 82.00 SG1
Forex EURUSD 1.2830
TradingLevels: The Euro and SP500 are out of whack so keep an eye on that as they we pull together again. The current move up should spend time at 128, if it does find support after three swings then the target would be 12872 SG2
Elliott wave: Euro is falling sharply, definitely forming an impulsive decline with prices now headed below 1.2660 and ideally into 1.2600 zone. At the moment it’s hard to apply the wave count on that sharp move, but we know that any small bounce will be corrective and short lived
Technical Analysis: Scalping - Short using 1.2772 as the retested resistance, add on the retest of 1.2665 both of these price points are SG2, cover part position at 1.2650 as the price should bounce, look to add again as the Midpoint 12650 experiences the retest, exit at 12630.
Forex AUDUSD 1.0323
TradingLevels: AUD is dragging its feet against copper to the upside, more in line with the SP500. But the AUD is slowly establishing support but it’s not there yet, if it does find support, scale in through SG1 10310|10320|10330
Elliott wave: Once retested support is established look for a long trade to 104
Trading Strategies : Scale in using SG1 the sublevels
Indices Resistance 12500 Dow / SP500 1300 IF they become support, then markets are positive, if supports are broken Dow 12272 / SP500 1272 then negative. Dow target 12,772 SG2 if support is found on 12,500
Dow Jones CFD 12,451
Technical Analysis US Holiday Monday
TradingLevels: The 12,300 and 12,272 are the supports and they are still is play, at this stage the sharp move down is part of a corrective pattern, a move through support 12,272 then we will start to gather evidence of the larger move down and a top being in play, it was our thoughts to have the high in place last week and that may be the case, but wave structure and pricing evidence is still required, the catalyst for pulling the price down has been the European rating cuts, however it’s the Oil being under 100 that is the weight and we are seeing divergence in that.
Elliott waveThe intraday pattern from the 10th to now appears to be an ABC corrective pattern, until proven otherwise expect a move higher through 12500
Trading Strategies : Intraday wait for a retest to check support into 12400 SG1
S&P500 CFD: 1293
TradingLevels: As long as the SG2 1265|1272|1280 remain the support the market is positive.
Elliott wave: The pattern below 1300 appears corrective so still expecting a move higher through 1300. That said there is growing weakness in the trend up and we are searching for the top and the beginnings of a larger move down
Trading Strategies : For Scalping you can work the degree down from the sublevels, that is the MicroLevels, as an example, the MicroLevels between 1280 and 1290 would Group1 1281|1282|1283 the Midpoint 1285 and Group2 1286.501287.20|1288
FTSE 100 CFD: 5641
TradingLevels: Now Subgroup2 (SG2) 5665|5672|5680 is the resistance
Elliott wave: Line the pattern up with the SP500
Trading Strategies : Only go long if 5672 is the support. When the price moves up to this level SG2 the price will react, so give it time to swing around for a while before thinking going long or short.
SPI CFD 4186
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: In the Minor degree the price should have completed its corrective pattern at 4200, the safest longs would be 4200 as support, but you have to wait for this move.
Elliott wave: larger corrective pattern across 4200 once completed which it can be now, should push up in line with the audusd
Day Trading: Work any trade from SG2 4165|4172|4180 the 4172 is the important price point. The current price is 41786 I would think the 4172 SG2 would be retested; I would simply wait and see if the 4172 becomes the support or the resistance, you can expect more corrective price action under the 4200. Keep an eye on copper and shanghai in the afternoon session as the lead will come from thereTechnical Analysis Summery
The Australian Dollar and the ASX200 are enjoying the lift in base metals and this looks set to continue this week.
The Shanghai has been forming a low and even though it should pull back down from the 2300 it should find support above 2200 and then push up lifting the whole Asian region, so many of our local stock should push higher, any stock sitting on a Major TradingLevel as support would be a good start for any long trades.US, the Dow is still under the 12,500 resistance but more importantly as support it’s above the 12,272 / 12,300, while its above this support we will call the pattern between 12500 and 12300 corrective with the view of pushing higher, if the 12500 develops as support then we can look at 12,800 and 13000, however there indications of weakness in the US and European markets in the general trend up, but as long as we know our supports we will work from that basis.
US weakness can come this week as 40 large companies put their earnings forward, so far many have been downgraded. The US has a holiday Monday
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Trading QuoteOne trade should never make or break your account.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD FPI m/m 0.2%
10:30am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m -0.1%
10:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m 5.7% -6.9%
10:50am JPY CGPI y/y 1.3% 1.7%
11:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -2.7%
11:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 0.0%
11:30am AUD Home Loans m/m 1.1% 0.7%
16th-17th NZD REINZ HPI m/m 1.1%
4:00pm JPY Household Confidence 38.9 38.1
6:00pm EUR German WPI m/m 0.3% 0.7%
7:15pm CHF PPI m/m -0.4% -0.8%
All Day USD Bank Holiday
12:30am CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 2.1% 3.3%
5:00am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Monday, 16 January 2012
Sunday, 15 January 2012
Elliott wave
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Description:
TradingLounge specialists in Technical Analysis such as TradingLevels, Elliott Wave Theory, Price and Volume. Plus Trading Strategies, Day Trading and Trading Education. Elliott Wave also available for a Free Trial http://tradinglounge.com.au
Elliott Wave
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks were little changed in afternoon trading after three batches of tepid U.S. economic data tempered investor optimism over strong Italian and Spanish debt auctions.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1652
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The price is working with the 1650 MediumLevel and from a trading point of view we have to allow it to unfold its pattern, if the pattern is bullish corrective (three swings across the level) and then finds support, then the trade is long, if resistance then we start looking for a short trade. The fact that it’s above the 1650 gives it a bullish start, secondly the Copper market (base metals) is extending higher…
Elliott wave: There is an Elliott wave count that completes the move up here at the 1650 and that’s fine however I have learnt over time that we need evidence of a turn before selling and while the price is above a level we don’t short, only on a failed retest and intraday impulse waves down. Either way the next few sessions should be corrective, so we aren’t missing anything, this is the same for silver.
Sliver Expect a corrective pattern at 30.00, don’t trade until you understand the unfolding pattern at 30 TL3 it could take three days to sort itself out the 28.72 SG2 is the support and this is likely to be tested IF the price works under the 30.00, the first support is SG2 of 29.00 i.e. 2965|2972|2980, with 2972 the most important
Oil WTI: 101.80
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Oil is still sitting in Group1 and the first sign of strength would be finding support on the pivot 102, but it’s the 103 the top of Group1 that is the evidence for the safer long trade
Elliott wave: While the price is above 100, the Elliott wave count can is for new highs above 103 to 105. This would be helped by stock, so the Dow would need to push higher from the current lows 12400
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.62+
US Nickel: Last: 8.91+
US Zinc: Last: 0.88+
US Aluminium Last: 0.95-
Copper CFD: 363
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Copper is now working with Subgroup2 (SG2 – 365|372|380) the price pattern is an impulse wave up and the longer term target is a retest of 400.
The Elliott impulse wave up should see the top of wave three and wave four corrective pattern unfold within SG2 with wave five up towards 400 the MediumLevel ML4. This move strengths most metals and therefore Materials sectors and Asian markets, ASX, Shanghai..
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.00
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The move down is the Wave c of the abc corrective pattern we have been tracking and the mirror opposite for the Euro. The Wave c will have five smaller waves in it, so we could see the price move through 81.00 to next support 80.72
Once the Wave c is completed we should see the Dollar move up and the Euro down, so if the Dollar does move down below 81.00 to 8072 etc, then finds supports on 81.00 then look for a long trade scaling in via SG1 of 81
Forex EURUSD 1.2830
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The Euro and SP500 are out of whack so keep an eye on that as they we pull together again. The current move up should spend time at 128, if it does find support after three swings then the target would be 12872 SG2
Elliott wave: Wave c up, like the US Dollar down in five waves, this Wave c up will have five smaller waves, counting from the last low at SG2 12672 zone, at a guess the current high around the 12840 is the top of wave three? With wave four about to unfold back into 128, however the 12840 maybe also the top of the fifth wave, I’m just not too sure.
Trading Strategies: the 12840 top of wave three or five?, so use the levels to trade, that if it’s the top of wave three, then wave four will come back to 128 in a slightly messy corrective pattern, so just allow it to unfold, after at least three swings into 128 if it finds support, then look to trade long when it get back above 128 as support and use SG1 to scale in, with targets at 12872, don’t go long when the price is below 128, because if the top 12840 is the top of wave five, then the bear market is continuing its trend down and you need to be short
Forex AUDUSD 1.0320
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 10372 target was reached, but while the price is above 103 and 10272 the market is positive. Support on group1 10330 is a platform for longs. Keep an eye on the SP500 and Copper as this market is tuned to them.
Elliott wave: There are a few ways to count the current structure, so choose your degree of structure to trade and set your rules around that. The Asian markets seem positive however the US indices are still battling with their resistances so be careful with long trades, we could end up seeing a larger corrective pattern at 103, while the price is above the 10272 consider it positive
Trading Strategies: Trade the sublevels
Indices
Resistance 12500 Dow / SP500 1300 IF they become support, then markets are positive, if supports are broken Dow 12272 / SP500 1272 then negative. Dow target 12,772 SG2 if support is found on 12,500
Dow Jones CFD 12,437
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: There’s not a lot I can add here, we are just observing the patterns unfold, we know there is resistance here, we know indicators are showing the same, we know there would be corrective price action here and not to get involved but also not to make any early predictions until we can see the evidence either in the price action pattern or 12500 as support or resistance, we can see the trend is up, but we can also see weakness in the trend.
Elliott wave: the five wave structure up is still unfolding, its just a bit messy and weak, but targets can be at 12800 / 12772
Trading Strategies: Long off 12400 SG1 and the Midpoint 12450
S&P500 CFD: 1290
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Another retest of 1300 from the 1290
Elliott wave: A move above 1300
Trading Strategies: Same again - support on 1290 creates the long but exit before 1300 and of course use the group1 midpoint and group2
FTSE 100 CFD: 5682
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Long of 5672 the next move should move up through 5700
Elliott wave: Targets 5772 - 5800
Trading Strategies: you may have had problems in the last session, but don’t give up as the corrective pattern looks more completed now, and supports such as SG2 5665|5672|5680 will have more meaning
SPI CFD 4189
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 4200 mTL2 is the pivot within MinorGroup1 this is important as it’s the balance line in within Minor Group1. Support on 4200 creates the long to 4272
Elliott wave: Unsure
Strategies: trading long off 4200 as support, use SG1 4210|4220|4230 to scale in the 4172 SG2 is the zone of support, if the 4172 becomes the resistance then short. The building of support at 4200 will be messy, the breakout – the first high above the level 4200 is likely to retest the 4200 and lower so accommodate this, you know the retest is more important than the break out.
Summary
US markets reacted at their resistance levels 12500 and 1300 Dow / SP but looking at their reaction patterns, they seem to be in three waves down, corrective, is this is the case then we can expect them to climb higher above there resistances.
Positive moves in base and precious metals, which is a positive for the AUDUSD / Materials sector and ASX
I think some of the US banks are reporting tonight so this could be the catalyst for the retest of US resistances… but please check that.
The Shanghai low that we talked about yesterday is still positive, but would really take about a week to develop, but all the same its positive and this is one of the ASX drivers
Weekly Cycle; The Thursday was lower and lower on volume, which is the catalyst for higher price today and if Friday’s closing is strong with confirming volume, then Monday will be a bull day. Trading the cycle is to scale in on Thursday afternoon if you see low volume and then continue to scale in on Friday morning and if you see Friday afternoon closing strong on confirming volume then you would add to longs, if you see the UK rolling over south then you can short that market to hedge ASX trades and also set up USA Robo trades to hedge ASX trades.
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Trading Quote
If the losses don’t hurt, your financial survival is tenuous.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
10:50am JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 3.1% 3.0%
8:30pm GBP PPI Input m/m 0.1% 0.1%
8:30pm GBP PPI Output m/m 0.1% 0.2%
9:00pm EUR Trade Balance 0.7B 0.3B
12:30am CAD Trade Balance -0.4B -0.9B
12:30am USD Trade Balance -44.6B -43.5B
12:30am USD Import Prices m/m 0.0% 0.7%
1:55am USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 70.8 69.9
1:55am USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 3.1%
3:10am USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Description:
TradingLounge specialists in Technical Analysis such as TradingLevels, Elliott Wave Theory, Price and Volume. Plus Trading Strategies, Day Trading and Trading Education. Elliott Wave also available for a Free Trial http://tradinglounge.com.au
Elliott Wave
News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks were little changed in afternoon trading after three batches of tepid U.S. economic data tempered investor optimism over strong Italian and Spanish debt auctions.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1652
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The price is working with the 1650 MediumLevel and from a trading point of view we have to allow it to unfold its pattern, if the pattern is bullish corrective (three swings across the level) and then finds support, then the trade is long, if resistance then we start looking for a short trade. The fact that it’s above the 1650 gives it a bullish start, secondly the Copper market (base metals) is extending higher…
Elliott wave: There is an Elliott wave count that completes the move up here at the 1650 and that’s fine however I have learnt over time that we need evidence of a turn before selling and while the price is above a level we don’t short, only on a failed retest and intraday impulse waves down. Either way the next few sessions should be corrective, so we aren’t missing anything, this is the same for silver.
Sliver Expect a corrective pattern at 30.00, don’t trade until you understand the unfolding pattern at 30 TL3 it could take three days to sort itself out the 28.72 SG2 is the support and this is likely to be tested IF the price works under the 30.00, the first support is SG2 of 29.00 i.e. 2965|2972|2980, with 2972 the most important
Oil WTI: 101.80
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Oil is still sitting in Group1 and the first sign of strength would be finding support on the pivot 102, but it’s the 103 the top of Group1 that is the evidence for the safer long trade
Elliott wave: While the price is above 100, the Elliott wave count can is for new highs above 103 to 105. This would be helped by stock, so the Dow would need to push higher from the current lows 12400
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.62+
US Nickel: Last: 8.91+
US Zinc: Last: 0.88+
US Aluminium Last: 0.95-
Copper CFD: 363
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Copper is now working with Subgroup2 (SG2 – 365|372|380) the price pattern is an impulse wave up and the longer term target is a retest of 400.
The Elliott impulse wave up should see the top of wave three and wave four corrective pattern unfold within SG2 with wave five up towards 400 the MediumLevel ML4. This move strengths most metals and therefore Materials sectors and Asian markets, ASX, Shanghai..
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.00
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The move down is the Wave c of the abc corrective pattern we have been tracking and the mirror opposite for the Euro. The Wave c will have five smaller waves in it, so we could see the price move through 81.00 to next support 80.72
Once the Wave c is completed we should see the Dollar move up and the Euro down, so if the Dollar does move down below 81.00 to 8072 etc, then finds supports on 81.00 then look for a long trade scaling in via SG1 of 81
Forex EURUSD 1.2830
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The Euro and SP500 are out of whack so keep an eye on that as they we pull together again. The current move up should spend time at 128, if it does find support after three swings then the target would be 12872 SG2
Elliott wave: Wave c up, like the US Dollar down in five waves, this Wave c up will have five smaller waves, counting from the last low at SG2 12672 zone, at a guess the current high around the 12840 is the top of wave three? With wave four about to unfold back into 128, however the 12840 maybe also the top of the fifth wave, I’m just not too sure.
Trading Strategies: the 12840 top of wave three or five?, so use the levels to trade, that if it’s the top of wave three, then wave four will come back to 128 in a slightly messy corrective pattern, so just allow it to unfold, after at least three swings into 128 if it finds support, then look to trade long when it get back above 128 as support and use SG1 to scale in, with targets at 12872, don’t go long when the price is below 128, because if the top 12840 is the top of wave five, then the bear market is continuing its trend down and you need to be short
Forex AUDUSD 1.0320
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 10372 target was reached, but while the price is above 103 and 10272 the market is positive. Support on group1 10330 is a platform for longs. Keep an eye on the SP500 and Copper as this market is tuned to them.
Elliott wave: There are a few ways to count the current structure, so choose your degree of structure to trade and set your rules around that. The Asian markets seem positive however the US indices are still battling with their resistances so be careful with long trades, we could end up seeing a larger corrective pattern at 103, while the price is above the 10272 consider it positive
Trading Strategies: Trade the sublevels
Indices
Resistance 12500 Dow / SP500 1300 IF they become support, then markets are positive, if supports are broken Dow 12272 / SP500 1272 then negative. Dow target 12,772 SG2 if support is found on 12,500
Dow Jones CFD 12,437
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: There’s not a lot I can add here, we are just observing the patterns unfold, we know there is resistance here, we know indicators are showing the same, we know there would be corrective price action here and not to get involved but also not to make any early predictions until we can see the evidence either in the price action pattern or 12500 as support or resistance, we can see the trend is up, but we can also see weakness in the trend.
Elliott wave: the five wave structure up is still unfolding, its just a bit messy and weak, but targets can be at 12800 / 12772
Trading Strategies: Long off 12400 SG1 and the Midpoint 12450
S&P500 CFD: 1290
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Another retest of 1300 from the 1290
Elliott wave: A move above 1300
Trading Strategies: Same again - support on 1290 creates the long but exit before 1300 and of course use the group1 midpoint and group2
FTSE 100 CFD: 5682
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Long of 5672 the next move should move up through 5700
Elliott wave: Targets 5772 - 5800
Trading Strategies: you may have had problems in the last session, but don’t give up as the corrective pattern looks more completed now, and supports such as SG2 5665|5672|5680 will have more meaning
SPI CFD 4189
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 4200 mTL2 is the pivot within MinorGroup1 this is important as it’s the balance line in within Minor Group1. Support on 4200 creates the long to 4272
Elliott wave: Unsure
Strategies: trading long off 4200 as support, use SG1 4210|4220|4230 to scale in the 4172 SG2 is the zone of support, if the 4172 becomes the resistance then short. The building of support at 4200 will be messy, the breakout – the first high above the level 4200 is likely to retest the 4200 and lower so accommodate this, you know the retest is more important than the break out.
Summary
US markets reacted at their resistance levels 12500 and 1300 Dow / SP but looking at their reaction patterns, they seem to be in three waves down, corrective, is this is the case then we can expect them to climb higher above there resistances.
Positive moves in base and precious metals, which is a positive for the AUDUSD / Materials sector and ASX
I think some of the US banks are reporting tonight so this could be the catalyst for the retest of US resistances… but please check that.
The Shanghai low that we talked about yesterday is still positive, but would really take about a week to develop, but all the same its positive and this is one of the ASX drivers
Weekly Cycle; The Thursday was lower and lower on volume, which is the catalyst for higher price today and if Friday’s closing is strong with confirming volume, then Monday will be a bull day. Trading the cycle is to scale in on Thursday afternoon if you see low volume and then continue to scale in on Friday morning and if you see Friday afternoon closing strong on confirming volume then you would add to longs, if you see the UK rolling over south then you can short that market to hedge ASX trades and also set up USA Robo trades to hedge ASX trades.
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Trading Quote
If the losses don’t hurt, your financial survival is tenuous.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
10:50am JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 3.1% 3.0%
8:30pm GBP PPI Input m/m 0.1% 0.1%
8:30pm GBP PPI Output m/m 0.1% 0.2%
9:00pm EUR Trade Balance 0.7B 0.3B
12:30am CAD Trade Balance -0.4B -0.9B
12:30am USD Trade Balance -44.6B -43.5B
12:30am USD Import Prices m/m 0.0% 0.7%
1:55am USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 70.8 69.9
1:55am USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 3.1%
3:10am USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Thursday, 12 January 2012
Trading Strategies
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Description:
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Trading Strategies
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1642
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: The 1650 MediumLevel is a good resistance and the Subgroup1 (SG1{1610|1620|1630}) as support, this support is support while the SG1 Pivot 1620 holds.
In terms of trading we would not go long while the price is under 1650 we would require this as support, we can also expect corrective price action at 1650. There is an Elliott wave count that finishes here and that’s fine however evidence is required of impulse waves down, if that becomes the case then scaling in under 1620 as resistance and then adding under 1600 would be sensible. If the 1650 does find support, then we can trade to 1700 which is the 61.8% retracement of the previous impulse wave down from 1800, anyway in the meantime we should just observe the battle between 1650 and SG1
Elliott Wave: The retest of 1650 is underway and the wave count up is in three waves but can also be counted in five, standing back for a moment and looking at the possibilities, this rally can also be the first leg of a larger abc rally to 1700 and I will point out why this is so in the video as it relates to the larger pattern down from 1800 to 1500+.
If this current retest fails we need to wait fro the pattern set up and that is, firstly waiting for the reaction at 1650 then finding support on 1630 or 1620 then retesting close to the last high /1650 etc and then rolling over down taking our the last low of support, this will prove the sellers have overwhelmed the buyers, we should also see US Indices do the same and the US Dollar push higher, it would also be good to see base metals do the same, copper.
Sliver at resistance 30.00 MajorLevel, if the price takes out 2956 add small short with stop above 30 and IF the market moves down look to add under 2900, 2872…
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Oil WTI: 102
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: Oil is still trapped in Group1 {101|102|103} above 100 TL1 as support so its positive, but in the next two degrees lower its negative under 103, if it can develop support on 102 the SG1 pivot then that is a plus but at the end of the day its finding support on top of SG1 103 that is the key for a long trade. Oil can move with stock, so the Dow also finding support on12,500 (mTL5) is also important for trading long, not essential but helpful, you can also look to the base metals and as we use copper the 350 as a solid support.
All of this helps with being long on equities with the Robo trading strategies.
Earlier in the week we were looking at Shanghai as it has moved down a lot more than other markets and could see it was oversold and the Elliott wave count was looking for a low and that low may be in now, it certainly has made a sign but would need confirmation in the structure, but while that current low is in place so is support for Asia and commodities.
Elliott Wave: expect further strength on crude towards and above 103.70. Well, in the two sessions prices made a pull-back for almost 61.8%. And so far pull-back appears corrective which fits very nicely into the bullish incomplete structure.
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.52+
US Nickel: Last: 8.72-
US Zinc: Last: 0.86+
US Aluminium Last: 0.96+
Copper CFD: 353
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: The next step is finding the Midpoint 350 as support or resistance, we can see the Asian markets pushing up but more importantly we can see support now coming in for Shanghai, all eye on this support as this is the driver, the negative in the market is the US Indices running out of stream, there are indicators also confirming this, but we would need evidence in the wave structure to call a top in and that would be an impulse (five waves) to the down side, I was thinking of a top being in place this week for the US but its not there yet. We can use the 350 as support or resistance for being long or short in the material sectors in the US UK AU markets, the other guide stick is US BHP being above or below 72 for being long or short
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.58
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The move up in the last session up from 81.00 is likely a wave b which will be followed be wave c back down to 81.00 and then push higher, if wrong and the price does move higher then support on 81.72 would be required. This is also reflected in the EURUSD in its wave four, its move down can also be a Wave b or the Wave 5. So use the levels in part to create a strong trade set up and trade shorter degrees of structure while in this 5th or b wave
Forex EURUSD 1.27
TradingLevels: The 1.2720 is the line in the sand as support or resistance for being long or short, as say this to simplify the situation as the Elliott count can have the move down from 128 as wave five or wave b,
Elliott Wave: If the move down from 128 is wave b then expect wave c up as a retest of 128, if the move down is wave five than a new low would be made.
Trading Strategies: The two important numbers at the lower end are 12720 and 12650
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Forex AUDUSD 1.03
TradingLevels: The move up last night from 10272 to 103 is on diminishing volume, so a solid support on 103 would be required for a safer trade up to make new highs above 10350
Elliott Wave: As an alternative count, the pattern on 103 over the last few days can be a wave four, if correct then a move into new highs to 10372
Trading Strategies: Long of 103 as support, building the trade through group1 {10310|10320|10330} the 10320 is helpful but the top of group1 10330 as support is more important to the bigger picture
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Indices
A few side points to mention, the US Earning season have started and the Shanghai has found a support on its low, will it hold is another matter, we will monitor the volume in the rally.
Dow Jones CFD 12,437
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 12500 is the line in the sand here, as support or resistance, however this will take time to develop. There are indicators and sentiment indicators creating over bought and divergences and an Elliott count for a high around here, but either way lets just let the 12500 play out as support or resistance, we have plenty of time to wait for a set up here long or short as a long would require a series of swings before support and resistance would require a few retests. There will be corrective price action here at 12500 and it is a target price point for us, but let’s just wait and see what develops before making a decision
Elliott Wave: As you know we are looking for a top here, but we simply need to time to see
Trading Strategies: Wait for support or resistance, resistance and retests would be quicker than support if is was going to go that way, on the short side you would be looking for the second retest of 12500 to fail and take out the last low.
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
S&P500 CFD: 1290
TradingLevels: The 1,300 is the resistance so expect a reaction there.
Elliott Wave: Same -The structure up is still going so expect he price to find a top this week at or above 1300. Count the impulse wave (5 waves) from the 1265 (SG2) up, you can see it still had further to go
Trading Strategies: Day trading, support on 1290 creates the long but exit before 1300
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
FTSE 100 CFD: 5690
TradingLevels: while the 5650 is support the pattern up is supported, 5650 as resistance creates short set ups
Elliott Wave: Same - Targets 5772 - 5800
Trading Strategies: You could work SG2 for a trade SG2 5665|5672|5680 expect the price to continue to swing across this level but wait for support or resistance here, with 5672 being key.
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
SPI CFD 4189
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 4200 mTL2 is the pivot within MinorGroup1 this is important as it’s the balance line in Group1.
Elliott Wave: We were looking for five wave up from 4100 to 4200, they are now in place, so expect a corrective pattern at and across 4200, it can also fail here.
Trading Strategies: Expect the tradinglevels Classic pattern across 4200. So we don’t chase the first new highs above 4200 as the break out is not as important as the retest, you are likely to get trapped, expect a corrective pattern above below across 4200. Once this has developed then you can start working the SG1 above 4200 and the SG2 below 4200
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Trading Strategies
The US markets have met resistance i.e. DJI 12,500 and SP1300 (nearly) so there is not a lot of upside potential right now, sure if they find these levels as support, then fine, long it is, but they are resistance and we don’t buy into that risk.
The upside potential for Asia is from the Shanghai market as an Elliott wave low has been falling into place, so we should observe the support, pattern and volume, the first resistance is 2300 top of group1 and the second is 2500 this is where is can technically rally to before rolling over. The 2300 resistance is a solid one as it comes with supply. In the mean time we are likely to see the Shanghai retest 2200 before any attempt to push higher, so we could be a week away before knowing if a medium term low is forming, which in turn would assist the ASX in moving higher, the ASX finding support on 4200 is the first step in a real move up, but it is the 4300 the top of MinorGroup1 that is the real evidence and there is a lot of supply there, if support is found on 4200 over the days ahead, the target would be 4272 SG2 zone.
Weekly Cycle; Wed higher close, Thursday open higher close lower. If it does close lower today then it’s the volume that is the important aspect, that is, if the price moves down on lower volume that is a bullish sign.
Trading Quote
You decide your fate; the market doesn’t
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
11:00am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -1.0%
12:30pm CNY CPI y/y 4.0% 4.2%
12:30pm CNY PPI y/y 1.6% 2.7%
12th-16th NZD REINZ HPI m/m 1.1%
4:00pm JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 46.3 45.0
5:00pm JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 15.8%
5:30pm EUR French CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3%
6:00pm EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.7% 0.7%
6:45pm EUR French Gov Budget Balance -99.4B
8:00pm EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.1% -0.9%
8:30pm GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.0% -0.7%
8:30pm GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.1% -0.7%
9:00pm EUR Industrial Production m/m -0.2% -0.1%
11:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility 275B 275B
11:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50%
Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement
11:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate 1.00% 1.00%
12:30am CAD NHPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%
12:30am EUR ECB Press Conference
12:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.2%
12:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.2%
12:30am USD Unemployment Claims 370K 372K
2:00am GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.3%
2:00am USD Business Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.8%
2:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -76B
6:00am USD Federal Budget Balance -79.0B -137.3B
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Description:
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Trading Strategies
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1642
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: The 1650 MediumLevel is a good resistance and the Subgroup1 (SG1{1610|1620|1630}) as support, this support is support while the SG1 Pivot 1620 holds.
In terms of trading we would not go long while the price is under 1650 we would require this as support, we can also expect corrective price action at 1650. There is an Elliott wave count that finishes here and that’s fine however evidence is required of impulse waves down, if that becomes the case then scaling in under 1620 as resistance and then adding under 1600 would be sensible. If the 1650 does find support, then we can trade to 1700 which is the 61.8% retracement of the previous impulse wave down from 1800, anyway in the meantime we should just observe the battle between 1650 and SG1
Elliott Wave: The retest of 1650 is underway and the wave count up is in three waves but can also be counted in five, standing back for a moment and looking at the possibilities, this rally can also be the first leg of a larger abc rally to 1700 and I will point out why this is so in the video as it relates to the larger pattern down from 1800 to 1500+.
If this current retest fails we need to wait fro the pattern set up and that is, firstly waiting for the reaction at 1650 then finding support on 1630 or 1620 then retesting close to the last high /1650 etc and then rolling over down taking our the last low of support, this will prove the sellers have overwhelmed the buyers, we should also see US Indices do the same and the US Dollar push higher, it would also be good to see base metals do the same, copper.
Sliver at resistance 30.00 MajorLevel, if the price takes out 2956 add small short with stop above 30 and IF the market moves down look to add under 2900, 2872…
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Oil WTI: 102
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: Oil is still trapped in Group1 {101|102|103} above 100 TL1 as support so its positive, but in the next two degrees lower its negative under 103, if it can develop support on 102 the SG1 pivot then that is a plus but at the end of the day its finding support on top of SG1 103 that is the key for a long trade. Oil can move with stock, so the Dow also finding support on12,500 (mTL5) is also important for trading long, not essential but helpful, you can also look to the base metals and as we use copper the 350 as a solid support.
All of this helps with being long on equities with the Robo trading strategies.
Earlier in the week we were looking at Shanghai as it has moved down a lot more than other markets and could see it was oversold and the Elliott wave count was looking for a low and that low may be in now, it certainly has made a sign but would need confirmation in the structure, but while that current low is in place so is support for Asia and commodities.
Elliott Wave: expect further strength on crude towards and above 103.70. Well, in the two sessions prices made a pull-back for almost 61.8%. And so far pull-back appears corrective which fits very nicely into the bullish incomplete structure.
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.52+
US Nickel: Last: 8.72-
US Zinc: Last: 0.86+
US Aluminium Last: 0.96+
Copper CFD: 353
Trading Strategies
TradingLevels: The next step is finding the Midpoint 350 as support or resistance, we can see the Asian markets pushing up but more importantly we can see support now coming in for Shanghai, all eye on this support as this is the driver, the negative in the market is the US Indices running out of stream, there are indicators also confirming this, but we would need evidence in the wave structure to call a top in and that would be an impulse (five waves) to the down side, I was thinking of a top being in place this week for the US but its not there yet. We can use the 350 as support or resistance for being long or short in the material sectors in the US UK AU markets, the other guide stick is US BHP being above or below 72 for being long or short
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.58
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The move up in the last session up from 81.00 is likely a wave b which will be followed be wave c back down to 81.00 and then push higher, if wrong and the price does move higher then support on 81.72 would be required. This is also reflected in the EURUSD in its wave four, its move down can also be a Wave b or the Wave 5. So use the levels in part to create a strong trade set up and trade shorter degrees of structure while in this 5th or b wave
Forex EURUSD 1.27
TradingLevels: The 1.2720 is the line in the sand as support or resistance for being long or short, as say this to simplify the situation as the Elliott count can have the move down from 128 as wave five or wave b,
Elliott Wave: If the move down from 128 is wave b then expect wave c up as a retest of 128, if the move down is wave five than a new low would be made.
Trading Strategies: The two important numbers at the lower end are 12720 and 12650
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Forex AUDUSD 1.03
TradingLevels: The move up last night from 10272 to 103 is on diminishing volume, so a solid support on 103 would be required for a safer trade up to make new highs above 10350
Elliott Wave: As an alternative count, the pattern on 103 over the last few days can be a wave four, if correct then a move into new highs to 10372
Trading Strategies: Long of 103 as support, building the trade through group1 {10310|10320|10330} the 10320 is helpful but the top of group1 10330 as support is more important to the bigger picture
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Indices
A few side points to mention, the US Earning season have started and the Shanghai has found a support on its low, will it hold is another matter, we will monitor the volume in the rally.
Dow Jones CFD 12,437
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 12500 is the line in the sand here, as support or resistance, however this will take time to develop. There are indicators and sentiment indicators creating over bought and divergences and an Elliott count for a high around here, but either way lets just let the 12500 play out as support or resistance, we have plenty of time to wait for a set up here long or short as a long would require a series of swings before support and resistance would require a few retests. There will be corrective price action here at 12500 and it is a target price point for us, but let’s just wait and see what develops before making a decision
Elliott Wave: As you know we are looking for a top here, but we simply need to time to see
Trading Strategies: Wait for support or resistance, resistance and retests would be quicker than support if is was going to go that way, on the short side you would be looking for the second retest of 12500 to fail and take out the last low.
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
S&P500 CFD: 1290
TradingLevels: The 1,300 is the resistance so expect a reaction there.
Elliott Wave: Same -The structure up is still going so expect he price to find a top this week at or above 1300. Count the impulse wave (5 waves) from the 1265 (SG2) up, you can see it still had further to go
Trading Strategies: Day trading, support on 1290 creates the long but exit before 1300
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
FTSE 100 CFD: 5690
TradingLevels: while the 5650 is support the pattern up is supported, 5650 as resistance creates short set ups
Elliott Wave: Same - Targets 5772 - 5800
Trading Strategies: You could work SG2 for a trade SG2 5665|5672|5680 expect the price to continue to swing across this level but wait for support or resistance here, with 5672 being key.
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
SPI CFD 4189
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 4200 mTL2 is the pivot within MinorGroup1 this is important as it’s the balance line in Group1.
Elliott Wave: We were looking for five wave up from 4100 to 4200, they are now in place, so expect a corrective pattern at and across 4200, it can also fail here.
Trading Strategies: Expect the tradinglevels Classic pattern across 4200. So we don’t chase the first new highs above 4200 as the break out is not as important as the retest, you are likely to get trapped, expect a corrective pattern above below across 4200. Once this has developed then you can start working the SG1 above 4200 and the SG2 below 4200
Day Trading Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Trading Education
Trading Strategies
The US markets have met resistance i.e. DJI 12,500 and SP1300 (nearly) so there is not a lot of upside potential right now, sure if they find these levels as support, then fine, long it is, but they are resistance and we don’t buy into that risk.
The upside potential for Asia is from the Shanghai market as an Elliott wave low has been falling into place, so we should observe the support, pattern and volume, the first resistance is 2300 top of group1 and the second is 2500 this is where is can technically rally to before rolling over. The 2300 resistance is a solid one as it comes with supply. In the mean time we are likely to see the Shanghai retest 2200 before any attempt to push higher, so we could be a week away before knowing if a medium term low is forming, which in turn would assist the ASX in moving higher, the ASX finding support on 4200 is the first step in a real move up, but it is the 4300 the top of MinorGroup1 that is the real evidence and there is a lot of supply there, if support is found on 4200 over the days ahead, the target would be 4272 SG2 zone.
Weekly Cycle; Wed higher close, Thursday open higher close lower. If it does close lower today then it’s the volume that is the important aspect, that is, if the price moves down on lower volume that is a bullish sign.
Trading Quote
You decide your fate; the market doesn’t
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
11:00am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -1.0%
12:30pm CNY CPI y/y 4.0% 4.2%
12:30pm CNY PPI y/y 1.6% 2.7%
12th-16th NZD REINZ HPI m/m 1.1%
4:00pm JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 46.3 45.0
5:00pm JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 15.8%
5:30pm EUR French CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3%
6:00pm EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.7% 0.7%
6:45pm EUR French Gov Budget Balance -99.4B
8:00pm EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.1% -0.9%
8:30pm GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.0% -0.7%
8:30pm GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.1% -0.7%
9:00pm EUR Industrial Production m/m -0.2% -0.1%
11:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility 275B 275B
11:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50%
Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement
11:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate 1.00% 1.00%
12:30am CAD NHPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%
12:30am EUR ECB Press Conference
12:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.2%
12:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.2%
12:30am USD Unemployment Claims 370K 372K
2:00am GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.3%
2:00am USD Business Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.8%
2:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -76B
6:00am USD Federal Budget Balance -79.0B -137.3B
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Tuesday, 10 January 2012
Elliott Wave GBPUSD
Elliott Wave GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart 10 January 2012 6:19:00PM AEST
Cable is showing very similar wave structure as the Elliott WaveEur/Usd pattern; advance from the lows appears corrective because of slow and overlapping price action within parallel lines. However this one is lagging compared to euro, so we still want to see support channel line broken, before downtrend is confirmed.
Elliott Wave GBPUSD4 Hour Chart 10 January 2012 5:23:00PM AEST
-corrective price action complete
We reworked the Elliott Wave count on cable after impulsive fall from recent 1.5671 swing. We know that impulsive waves shows direction of a larger trend, so with this being said, the most recent upward leg from 1.5360 is done, which means that pair should move into a new low! As such, we think that wave 2) was a running flat, and that pair is tin a sub-wave 1
Elliott Wave GBPUSD Daily Chart 08 January 2012
-wave 2) done!?
A decline from 1.6170 can be counted in five Elliott Waves, with wave 5 low just above 1.5300 area from where we a sideways move over the past few weeks. AS such, we came out with an idea that wave 2) may have already reached a peak and that weakness will follow in coming days and weeks. But we however still want to see a 1.526 breakout; 2011 low, which will send the pair down minimum to 1.48!.
For more Technical Analysis and free stuff, please visit Trading Lounge website: tradinglounge.com.au
Cable is showing very similar wave structure as the Elliott WaveEur/Usd pattern; advance from the lows appears corrective because of slow and overlapping price action within parallel lines. However this one is lagging compared to euro, so we still want to see support channel line broken, before downtrend is confirmed.
Elliott Wave GBPUSD4 Hour Chart 10 January 2012 5:23:00PM AEST
-corrective price action complete
We reworked the Elliott Wave count on cable after impulsive fall from recent 1.5671 swing. We know that impulsive waves shows direction of a larger trend, so with this being said, the most recent upward leg from 1.5360 is done, which means that pair should move into a new low! As such, we think that wave 2) was a running flat, and that pair is tin a sub-wave 1
Elliott Wave GBPUSD Daily Chart 08 January 2012
-wave 2) done!?
A decline from 1.6170 can be counted in five Elliott Waves, with wave 5 low just above 1.5300 area from where we a sideways move over the past few weeks. AS such, we came out with an idea that wave 2) may have already reached a peak and that weakness will follow in coming days and weeks. But we however still want to see a 1.526 breakout; 2011 low, which will send the pair down minimum to 1.48!.
For more Technical Analysis and free stuff, please visit Trading Lounge website: tradinglounge.com.au
Day Trading
Watch youtube video here: http://youtu.be/ctsSRBXkvf8
Description:
Day Trading and Day Trading Strategies from the TradingLounge Education.
This Technical Analysis video is the basis for setting up our Mechanical Day Trading Methods called Robo, the Robo trades are for the AU, UK and USA , if you require Day Trades for these markets or further Trading Education in Technical Analysis such as Elliott Wave or TradingLevels then visit the TradingLounge for a Free Trial http://tradinglounge.com.au
Day Trading
Dow Jones 12,359 -0.45%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1634
Oil WTI: 102
Copper CFD: 350
US Dollar: 81.45
EURUSD 1.27480
AUDUSD 1.03
Dow Jones CFD 12,450
S&P500 CFD: 1290
FTSE 100 CFD: 5690
SPI CFD 4165
Trading Education
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks were ahead but off session highs Tuesday afternoon after strong gains overseas and an upbeat start to the U.S. earnings reporting season pushed blue-chip stocks to levels not seen since late July.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1634
Technical Analysis
Day Trading : The support is through upper levels of Subgroup1 1620 | 1630 and the MediumLevel 1650 is the resistance. The general pattern of gold is similar to many other markets, a simple breakout of a sideways pattern, these surges at the end of trends are normally on lower volume, we should be seeing tops this week. Trading Education
Elliott wave: Gold moved nice higher, in impulsive manner as expected after the prices broke through 1624 resistance of a wave (d). We know that triangles occur prior to the final leg of the larger pattern, which means that current bullish waves may find a top in the near future. The advance that we are monitoring still could be wave C of larger corrective pull-back. Now we need to be patient and let’s see if we will get signs of a top or not.
Sliver at resistance 30.00 MajorLevel, give it some time to develop support or resistance.
Oil WTI: 102
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading Oil has much the same pattern as other commodities and stocks and the move up is in line with other markets which we expect to find a top this week in Elliott terms, the tradinglevels are the trading insurance for supporting Elliott or not, in that, the price simply being above 100 MajorLevel TL1 is a positive and only long trades would be placed, now breaking that down in to Group1 {101|102|103} we can start to work out the trade, firstly if support is found on top of Group1 103, then we trade to 105. The other aspect in Group1 is trading from the main level in this case 100 to the top of group1 103 and exit and then wait for support, if found trade to 105. And another aspect if waiting for the pivot 102 to find support and move in long from there.
Elliott wave: Oil is trading nicely higher since we called end of a corrective double Zigzag pattern around $100 per barrel. Notice that move is quite sharp and has an impulsive personality through the falling corrective channel line. As such, we believe that prices will revisit 103.60 levels and even higher in this week.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.50+
US Nickel: Last: 8.79+
US Zinc: Last: 0.86+
US Aluminium Last: 0.95+
Copper CFD: 350
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The retest to 350 has taken place and this move is the same as most other markets and we are expect the other markets, more so the US Indices to top this week, if this is the case then Oil Gold Copper etc should do the same. However from a trading point of view we need to trade what we see rather than attach ourselves to an opinion, so if the 350 Midpoint develops support then it’s a positive market, but it need to be a good support, there is plenty of supply (sellers) from 350 to 365, the likely resistance numbers are 356, 357 and 358 then a more serious retest of the Midpoint, it would be this retest that will be the focus. Remember this market is a catalyst of base metals and therefor of the AUDUSD and the Materials sector on the ASX UK USA etc and is now also driven by the Shanghai Copper futures i.e China, and the sharp rise today is from comments made by China regarding spurring growth.
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.45
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading TradingLevels: Minor Group1 (MG1 {81|82|83}) it is important to understand while the price is in MG1 it is still part of the next degree higher that is the MajorLevel TL8 | 80.00 only when the top of Group1 83.00 is the support that the price is free of TL8.
Being inside Minor Group1 offers a variety of trading opportunities, however you need to be clear on what you’re doing, there are some basic strategies that can be applied, not some much as to different time frames but to different degrees of structures and in this case there the basic structure apart from the MajorLevel TL8 and the Microlevels, the MinorLevels and Sublevels (SubMinor) are the degree of structure you would start planning your trades out and there are rules how to use the levels, they are the same throughout all the degrees of structures.
In the Minor Levels (MG1 {81|82|83}) the 1 is the strongest number and the 2 is the pivot for Group1 and Group1 has its rules and characteristics depending if you’re going long or short through the Group or if your scalping the sublevels then the normal tradinglevels rules apply
Elliott Wave: The move down to 81 (mTL1) is wave a or I any bounce off 81 is wave b or ii. Because the price is still trapped in MG1 we have to be open to a larger corrective pattern across 80. That said the Pound and Euro have long term trends down so any larger corrective pattern at 80 would be sharp and short.
Forex EURUSD 1.27480
Technical Analysis: The 1.28 is the main play here, the 8 is a profit taking number, so a correctional pattern is assured, the supports under this the nest degree down is the Group2 1.2765|1.2772|1.2780 and then the group1 above 1.28 the 1.2810|1.2820|1.2830.
Elliott wave Euro made a new high in recent hour, which made the wave counts and outlook at little more complicated, simply because now a recovery can be counted in different way. It could be a corrective w)-x)-y) which is our primary count, but in such case we need immediately impulsive fall back below 1.2742, If we don't get that, and if price will trade slowly lower, then recovery from the lows could also be a leading diagonal in wave (a), of a larger and incomplete recovery.
Trading Strategies: The price is working with 1.28, the normal thing to do is to trade to 1.28 and exit. Then wait for the correction, look for the basic three swings, Elliott Zigzag then if the price climbs on 1.28 as support then work the long side using group1, there are a handful of strategies you can use in and through Group1 you just need to be clear on what you are doing. On the flip side if the 1.28 becomes the resistance then use Group2 1.2765|1.2772|1.2780 and in this case the 1.2772 is highly important as support or resistance, you would short a failed retest of 72.
The current move up is part of a Elliott wave four and wave fours can get complicated, as mentioned before we don’t normally trade wave four. The move up is likely one leg of three
Forex AUDUSD 1.03
Day Trading : I have talked about Group1 in the EarlyBird toady in different markets and it’s the same here in the AUDUSD Subgroup1 (SG1 101|102|103) however in this case the price is at the top of Group1 at 103 and if the price develops support on top of Group1 it will move higher to 105 the Midpoint, this is Subgroup1 |103 as MinorGroup1 MG1 would be at 1.30.
Elliott wave: The current move up from around the 1.0150 to 1.0350 is in three waves ABC, the corrective pullback pattern about to unfold at 103 can be wave four.
Trading Strategies : Allow the corrective pattern at 103 to unfold, at minimum look for three swings. The support apart from 103 is the next degree down and under 103, Group2 1.0265|1.0272|1.0280 which falls into the 382 – 50% retracement level for a wave four and also the wave four of one lesser degree. Wave fours can get messy.
On the upside you want 10330 as support.
Day Trading Gold, Oil and S&P Futures moved nicely higher during Asian session and supported some FX pairs, while the US dollar moved slightly lower. However at the start of the European session we can see some pressure against the Euro and Pound, which in fact could be start of some larger declines on those pairs based on the EW pattern. We believe that weakness on both will be significant if S&P Futures reaches just a temporary resistance. In fact, S&P moved out of a corrective price action that we highlighted few times in the past updates, and if we take a look on the structure of the pattern, then we can clearly see that it was a triangle. And here comes the interesting part, "Triangles unfold just prior to the final move in the larger pattern", which means that bearish reversal should follow. As such, we are observing levels from 1283-1290 for a potential top.
Dow Jones CFD 12,450
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 12500 was a target for the top of this trend, however, what is happening in price action at a level is normal for a bullish market there is no evidence yet of a top, when a price arrives at a number like this, 5 (500) is the second strongest number, this is called the arrival, then the reaction, the finding support, then the retest or the first high above the level, this would be part of the basic Classic pattern unfolding. It is the retest of supply that is the real important aspect to observe, once we can see if we are going to get a failed retest or the first high above the levels 12500 then we know what will happen next
Elliott wave: I think the correction at 12,500 is a wave four, with a wave five to 12550 the wave five being the same length roughly as wave one…
Day Trading If support can be found on 12,472 then trade up, if you have been trading up then you would have exited at 12500. You know the Dow likes to work each 100 points, this is where the corrections are. Use the sublevels to plan entries, stops and exits. Or if your scalping then the 2 minute Robo and the tradinglevels, the market runs the fasted between number 3 -5 -8 up or down
S&P500 CFD: 1290
TradingLevels: The 1,300 is the MinorLevel (mTL3) and is the top of MinorGroup1 (1100|1200|1300) so this is a very important price point, we should expect the price to have a correction above below across this level.
Elliott wave: The structure up is still going so expect he price to find a top this week at or above 1300. Count the impulse wave (5 waves) from the 1265 (SG2) up, you can see it still had further to go
Trading Strategies : If your long you should think of scaling into 1300
FTSE 100 CFD: 5690
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: You can see the impulse wave up and the 5700 is where the corrective pattern is unfolding, so allow it to unfold in three swings, if support is found on 5700 after the correction pattern then edge in long, the 5720 will also be resistance, it is part of Subgroup1 but its also a 72
Elliott wave: Same - Targets 5772 - 5800
Trading Strategies: Wait for the correction at 5700 to become fully developed then look for support (Gann liked to use 57 a lot)
SPI CFD 4165
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The target is 4200 with the SG2 in the way (6165|4172|4180) any longs would require 4172 as support
Elliott wave: Count the Impulse wave up (5 waves) up from the 4100 to 4200
Day Trading: China mentioned about spurring the economy, the trend up is the result. Expect a correction pattern at SG2 after the smallish corrective pattern look for support on 4172 add on 4180 support exit at 4198
Summary
We got our move up in most markets, now we are looking for the top which should occur this week. In the move up we are looking for an impulse wave (5 waves) I think we have the top of wave three and four is developing with the fifth wave up to go, at a very rough guess just to give shape to the pattern the Dow at 12550
Weekly Cycle; Wed higher close, Thursday open higher close lower.
Trading Quote
Nothing New In Day Trading
That enormous profits should have turned into still more colossal losses, that new theories should have been developed and later discredited, that unlimited optimism should have been succeeded by the deepest despair, are all in strict accord with age-old tradition.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
11:01am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 2.0%
4:00pm JPY Leading Indicators 92.9% 92.0%
8:00pm EUR Final GDP q/q 0.2% 0.2%
8:30pm GBP Trade Balance -8.2B -7.6B
1:00am USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
2:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.2M
6:00am USD Beige Book
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Description:
Day Trading and Day Trading Strategies from the TradingLounge Education.
This Technical Analysis video is the basis for setting up our Mechanical Day Trading Methods called Robo, the Robo trades are for the AU, UK and USA , if you require Day Trades for these markets or further Trading Education in Technical Analysis such as Elliott Wave or TradingLevels then visit the TradingLounge for a Free Trial http://tradinglounge.com.au
Day Trading
Dow Jones 12,359 -0.45%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1634
Oil WTI: 102
Copper CFD: 350
US Dollar: 81.45
EURUSD 1.27480
AUDUSD 1.03
Dow Jones CFD 12,450
S&P500 CFD: 1290
FTSE 100 CFD: 5690
SPI CFD 4165
Trading Education
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks were ahead but off session highs Tuesday afternoon after strong gains overseas and an upbeat start to the U.S. earnings reporting season pushed blue-chip stocks to levels not seen since late July.
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1634
Technical Analysis
Day Trading : The support is through upper levels of Subgroup1 1620 | 1630 and the MediumLevel 1650 is the resistance. The general pattern of gold is similar to many other markets, a simple breakout of a sideways pattern, these surges at the end of trends are normally on lower volume, we should be seeing tops this week. Trading Education
Elliott wave: Gold moved nice higher, in impulsive manner as expected after the prices broke through 1624 resistance of a wave (d). We know that triangles occur prior to the final leg of the larger pattern, which means that current bullish waves may find a top in the near future. The advance that we are monitoring still could be wave C of larger corrective pull-back. Now we need to be patient and let’s see if we will get signs of a top or not.
Sliver at resistance 30.00 MajorLevel, give it some time to develop support or resistance.
Oil WTI: 102
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading Oil has much the same pattern as other commodities and stocks and the move up is in line with other markets which we expect to find a top this week in Elliott terms, the tradinglevels are the trading insurance for supporting Elliott or not, in that, the price simply being above 100 MajorLevel TL1 is a positive and only long trades would be placed, now breaking that down in to Group1 {101|102|103} we can start to work out the trade, firstly if support is found on top of Group1 103, then we trade to 105. The other aspect in Group1 is trading from the main level in this case 100 to the top of group1 103 and exit and then wait for support, if found trade to 105. And another aspect if waiting for the pivot 102 to find support and move in long from there.
Elliott wave: Oil is trading nicely higher since we called end of a corrective double Zigzag pattern around $100 per barrel. Notice that move is quite sharp and has an impulsive personality through the falling corrective channel line. As such, we believe that prices will revisit 103.60 levels and even higher in this week.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.50+
US Nickel: Last: 8.79+
US Zinc: Last: 0.86+
US Aluminium Last: 0.95+
Copper CFD: 350
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: The retest to 350 has taken place and this move is the same as most other markets and we are expect the other markets, more so the US Indices to top this week, if this is the case then Oil Gold Copper etc should do the same. However from a trading point of view we need to trade what we see rather than attach ourselves to an opinion, so if the 350 Midpoint develops support then it’s a positive market, but it need to be a good support, there is plenty of supply (sellers) from 350 to 365, the likely resistance numbers are 356, 357 and 358 then a more serious retest of the Midpoint, it would be this retest that will be the focus. Remember this market is a catalyst of base metals and therefor of the AUDUSD and the Materials sector on the ASX UK USA etc and is now also driven by the Shanghai Copper futures i.e China, and the sharp rise today is from comments made by China regarding spurring growth.
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.45
Technical Analysis:
Day Trading TradingLevels: Minor Group1 (MG1 {81|82|83}) it is important to understand while the price is in MG1 it is still part of the next degree higher that is the MajorLevel TL8 | 80.00 only when the top of Group1 83.00 is the support that the price is free of TL8.
Being inside Minor Group1 offers a variety of trading opportunities, however you need to be clear on what you’re doing, there are some basic strategies that can be applied, not some much as to different time frames but to different degrees of structures and in this case there the basic structure apart from the MajorLevel TL8 and the Microlevels, the MinorLevels and Sublevels (SubMinor) are the degree of structure you would start planning your trades out and there are rules how to use the levels, they are the same throughout all the degrees of structures.
In the Minor Levels (MG1 {81|82|83}) the 1 is the strongest number and the 2 is the pivot for Group1 and Group1 has its rules and characteristics depending if you’re going long or short through the Group or if your scalping the sublevels then the normal tradinglevels rules apply
Elliott Wave: The move down to 81 (mTL1) is wave a or I any bounce off 81 is wave b or ii. Because the price is still trapped in MG1 we have to be open to a larger corrective pattern across 80. That said the Pound and Euro have long term trends down so any larger corrective pattern at 80 would be sharp and short.
Forex EURUSD 1.27480
Technical Analysis: The 1.28 is the main play here, the 8 is a profit taking number, so a correctional pattern is assured, the supports under this the nest degree down is the Group2 1.2765|1.2772|1.2780 and then the group1 above 1.28 the 1.2810|1.2820|1.2830.
Elliott wave Euro made a new high in recent hour, which made the wave counts and outlook at little more complicated, simply because now a recovery can be counted in different way. It could be a corrective w)-x)-y) which is our primary count, but in such case we need immediately impulsive fall back below 1.2742, If we don't get that, and if price will trade slowly lower, then recovery from the lows could also be a leading diagonal in wave (a), of a larger and incomplete recovery.
Trading Strategies: The price is working with 1.28, the normal thing to do is to trade to 1.28 and exit. Then wait for the correction, look for the basic three swings, Elliott Zigzag then if the price climbs on 1.28 as support then work the long side using group1, there are a handful of strategies you can use in and through Group1 you just need to be clear on what you are doing. On the flip side if the 1.28 becomes the resistance then use Group2 1.2765|1.2772|1.2780 and in this case the 1.2772 is highly important as support or resistance, you would short a failed retest of 72.
The current move up is part of a Elliott wave four and wave fours can get complicated, as mentioned before we don’t normally trade wave four. The move up is likely one leg of three
Forex AUDUSD 1.03
Day Trading : I have talked about Group1 in the EarlyBird toady in different markets and it’s the same here in the AUDUSD Subgroup1 (SG1 101|102|103) however in this case the price is at the top of Group1 at 103 and if the price develops support on top of Group1 it will move higher to 105 the Midpoint, this is Subgroup1 |103 as MinorGroup1 MG1 would be at 1.30.
Elliott wave: The current move up from around the 1.0150 to 1.0350 is in three waves ABC, the corrective pullback pattern about to unfold at 103 can be wave four.
Trading Strategies : Allow the corrective pattern at 103 to unfold, at minimum look for three swings. The support apart from 103 is the next degree down and under 103, Group2 1.0265|1.0272|1.0280 which falls into the 382 – 50% retracement level for a wave four and also the wave four of one lesser degree. Wave fours can get messy.
On the upside you want 10330 as support.
Day Trading Gold, Oil and S&P Futures moved nicely higher during Asian session and supported some FX pairs, while the US dollar moved slightly lower. However at the start of the European session we can see some pressure against the Euro and Pound, which in fact could be start of some larger declines on those pairs based on the EW pattern. We believe that weakness on both will be significant if S&P Futures reaches just a temporary resistance. In fact, S&P moved out of a corrective price action that we highlighted few times in the past updates, and if we take a look on the structure of the pattern, then we can clearly see that it was a triangle. And here comes the interesting part, "Triangles unfold just prior to the final move in the larger pattern", which means that bearish reversal should follow. As such, we are observing levels from 1283-1290 for a potential top.
Dow Jones CFD 12,450
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The 12500 was a target for the top of this trend, however, what is happening in price action at a level is normal for a bullish market there is no evidence yet of a top, when a price arrives at a number like this, 5 (500) is the second strongest number, this is called the arrival, then the reaction, the finding support, then the retest or the first high above the level, this would be part of the basic Classic pattern unfolding. It is the retest of supply that is the real important aspect to observe, once we can see if we are going to get a failed retest or the first high above the levels 12500 then we know what will happen next
Elliott wave: I think the correction at 12,500 is a wave four, with a wave five to 12550 the wave five being the same length roughly as wave one…
Day Trading If support can be found on 12,472 then trade up, if you have been trading up then you would have exited at 12500. You know the Dow likes to work each 100 points, this is where the corrections are. Use the sublevels to plan entries, stops and exits. Or if your scalping then the 2 minute Robo and the tradinglevels, the market runs the fasted between number 3 -5 -8 up or down
S&P500 CFD: 1290
TradingLevels: The 1,300 is the MinorLevel (mTL3) and is the top of MinorGroup1 (1100|1200|1300) so this is a very important price point, we should expect the price to have a correction above below across this level.
Elliott wave: The structure up is still going so expect he price to find a top this week at or above 1300. Count the impulse wave (5 waves) from the 1265 (SG2) up, you can see it still had further to go
Trading Strategies : If your long you should think of scaling into 1300
FTSE 100 CFD: 5690
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: You can see the impulse wave up and the 5700 is where the corrective pattern is unfolding, so allow it to unfold in three swings, if support is found on 5700 after the correction pattern then edge in long, the 5720 will also be resistance, it is part of Subgroup1 but its also a 72
Elliott wave: Same - Targets 5772 - 5800
Trading Strategies: Wait for the correction at 5700 to become fully developed then look for support (Gann liked to use 57 a lot)
SPI CFD 4165
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The target is 4200 with the SG2 in the way (6165|4172|4180) any longs would require 4172 as support
Elliott wave: Count the Impulse wave up (5 waves) up from the 4100 to 4200
Day Trading: China mentioned about spurring the economy, the trend up is the result. Expect a correction pattern at SG2 after the smallish corrective pattern look for support on 4172 add on 4180 support exit at 4198
Summary
We got our move up in most markets, now we are looking for the top which should occur this week. In the move up we are looking for an impulse wave (5 waves) I think we have the top of wave three and four is developing with the fifth wave up to go, at a very rough guess just to give shape to the pattern the Dow at 12550
Weekly Cycle; Wed higher close, Thursday open higher close lower.
Trading Quote
Nothing New In Day Trading
That enormous profits should have turned into still more colossal losses, that new theories should have been developed and later discredited, that unlimited optimism should have been succeeded by the deepest despair, are all in strict accord with age-old tradition.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
11:01am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 2.0%
4:00pm JPY Leading Indicators 92.9% 92.0%
8:00pm EUR Final GDP q/q 0.2% 0.2%
8:30pm GBP Trade Balance -8.2B -7.6B
1:00am USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
2:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.2M
6:00am USD Beige Book
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Monday, 9 January 2012
Technical Analysis
Video: http://youtu.be/uOl4LvS87p4
Description:
Technical Analysis
TradingLounge’s Peter Mathers Technical Analyst outlines Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies using the Tradinglevels Pattern Recognition Elliott Wave as Trading Education.
This Day Trading report is only the lead in for the actual mechanical Robo Day Trading for the Australia, US and UK Markets, Forex Elliott Wave Technical Analysis is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
Dow Jones 12,359 -0.45%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold: 1617
Oil WTI: 101.87
Copper: 342
US Dollar: 81.59
EURUSD 1.2715
AUDUSD 1.0225
Dow Jones CFD 12,365
S&P500 CFD: 1278
FTSE 100 CFD: 5637
SPI CFDs 4113
Welcome Back
It was great to have some time off and we haven’t really missed any main moves in equities, so all is well. The European dilemma will override most other events and this problem is far from resolved as we can see in the Euro, the driving factor in my uneducated opinion on the matter is simply when the EU drafts new regulations for being in their community, these new rules will have to be enforced and here in sits the problem, the enforcer will be the catalyst for strife.
Last year we turned our Robo trade management method into a Trading Strategy with reasonable results, therefor more attention will be focused on the Robo this year, with better courses and services, late last year we started the US NYSE and Nasdaq, this year we will look to add the LSE UK so we can set trade up around the clock.
Website, last year I was toying around with other website models, so in the first quarter this year, we will be adding a social platform, essentially you can talk to other traders who use the TradingLounge, there will be forums, groups, blogs, trader profiles, you can post charts videos and so on.
We have also been working on a web based charting program it’s very basic but handy with 20 minute delayed data, indicators and stock scanning I will work on it through the year..
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1617
Technical Analysis: Viewing the Daily chart there are three possible Elliott Wave counts, two for the downside and one to the upside, it’s important to understand these counts, as the market unfolds we will be eliminating the counts that don’t fit. I will point these counts out in the video.
TradingLevels, the main game as support or resistance is the MediumLevel (65) 1,650, we would not go long unless the price finds support on 1,650. The current price of 1,617 is very close to the Fibonacci number 1.618 so day traders can use the 1620 as support or resistance. The current move up from the 1520 area to the 1630 is a trend that appears complete, in that trends like correction have a being, middle and end and we can see the price pattern above the 1600 to 1630 has overlapping wave structures which is a sign of weakness, so we should naturally expect a correction of the move up, the support would be 618 retracement or around the SG2 1565|1572|1580 expect and abc zigzag correction at least. On our Elliott Wave charts this move up is a wave four retracing back the fourth wave of one lesser degree, this move up is also only Wave (a) of the correction
Strategy, would be to wait for the price to correct the current trend up, after the correction you need to work out if the 1600 becomes support or resistance. The outside triggers would be long if 1630 (SG1) becomes support or short if 1572 (SG2) becomes resistance.
The other important point with wave fours is that they can get complicated, choppy and they are not the structures to trade. Silver may be the better option to trade as you can work with TL3 30.00
Sliver Same - Add to short when 29.00 becomes the resistance then more so with a failed retest as resistance for MinorLevel mTL8/ 28.00 other numbers 27.72 and 26.50 then 25.00 the MediumLevel to cover shorts.
Oil WTI: 101.87
Technical Analysis: Above TL1 100 is a positive market.
If you were to go long, then work Group1, scale in starting at the pivot 102 as support, expect a reaction at 103 and if the prices are to go higher then expect the price to fluctuate at 103, testing and building support on 102 and eventually developing support on 103 once and if this occurs then add to the position and take profit at 105.
The 102 is the critical support and resistance above 100, if the 102 cannot find support then it’s back to 100 and 98.
The Elliott Wave count is for higher ground, however the price is testing 100 for support and this process needs to continue, but support on the 102 and more so on the 103 top of Group1 is the catalyst for using the Day Trading Robo on the long side of the energy sector
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.43+
US Nickel: Last: 8.48+
US Zinc: Last: 0.83+
US Aluminium Last: 0.83+
Copper CFD: 342
Technical Analysis: The move up from the 15 Dec, is much the same as the AUDUSD, it should be pointed out that there is an alternative count for the AUD and that is on the 4 Hr chart the current Wave 1) can also be the top of a rally an abc for a larger Wave E, we will work through this alternative count over the week ahead, but it does reflect back in Copper, so we could say while copper stays above the 330 the 72% retracement level then Copper remains positive. I will talk about this in the video so we are all on the same page, the AUD Copper and SP500 should all fit together. The LME Copper needs to stay above 7,200 (72) to remain positive which I think is unlikely, the 2011 Sept rally pattern until now is likely a wave four correctional rally retesting 8000 (TL8) I would expect 6500 as the wave five target.
Any positives coming from base metals would need to see the CRB Index develop support on 300 TL3 it is currently testing it in a series of tests, but will it hold over the month ahead is what we will be observing, the precious metals will be part of this mix.
My bias is short for Copper but this means we also need to see the AUD Alternative count unfolding down
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.59
Technical Analysis: TL8|80 is support, we were a little unsure of how the corrective pattern at 80 would unfold before Xmas but it’s clear to see on the hourly chart a simple abc correction on TL8. You can now work a positive pattern through Group1
We have always understood that the Dollar would push higher and the Euro lower, we can even see the EURAUD being the best trade short as these are the weakest and strongest currencies in play.
Any way the Dollar up and the Euro down is the main trend ahead. This also should make equities traders be aware of the divergence between the Euro and SP500 as these guys normally travel together, the SP hasn’t been as strong as the Dow… we should therefor soon see downside for the SP500 as the Euro moves lower.
If the SP500 is going to roll over and follow the Euro, then the AUDUSD will also roll over lower, the AUD has much the same wave pattern as Copper and copper/ base metals should also line up with precious metals.
Forex EURUSD 1.2715
TradingLevels:
The EURAUD is and has been the better short.
The EURUSD has support at 1.25 from the Weekly trendline that said the Euro is in a large wave three down and old lows at 1.20 should be reached. In the bigger picture it is worth noting that the Euro is entering Minor Group1 1.30|1.20|1.10 to me this means the Euro will reach parity with the Dollar.
Elliott Wave: in the Wave 3 down into the 1.25 weekly trend line is about right
Trading Strategies: Scalpers; On the Open work the 1,2720 (72) be on the right side of this number, add on the failed retest of 1.27. you can see the Elliott Wave count on the 1 hour chart. The 1,2650 is a target low
Weekly Robo traders hold short.
Forex AUDUSD 1.0225
TradingLevels: The MajorLevel TL1|1.00 as support, with the current price working through Group1 101|102|103 if the 103 becomes the support then trade to 105, you may be able to buy lower around 101 at the end of Wave c, see the Elliott wave 1 hour chart, but after the ABC correction the safer place to buy is the pivot 102 scaling in and adding if and when 103 develops as support
Elliott Wave: You can see the Elliott Wave count on the AUD charts, however I need to point out that the last high around 104 can also be the end of an abc correction that started Nov 2011 at 97. So we will be talking about the current pattern about to unfold at 103, I will talk about this in the video so you understand both counts and at what point on is eliminated. Essentially the ABC pattern on the hourly chart, can also be 1,2,3… down?
Trading Strategies: Keep your trading within the sublevels until we work out the larger trend
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,365
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Support 12,272 and 12,300 resistance 12,500 the 12,400 resistance should be broken looking at the corrective price pattern above 12,300. The main development would be 12500 as support, this would put the price at 12,650
Elliott Wave: Once again we search for the top of Wave (2) and the current move up in Jan is subdividing into the later stages, we should stay diligent for the reversal
Trading Strategies: Continue to hold long above 12,272 SG2
S&P500 CFD: 1278
TradingLevels: The price is subgroup2 SG2 12651272|1280 and the price is above 1272 support this is a positive development, the next step if going long is waiting for retested support on 1280
Elliott Wave: The 1 hour SP chart states the pattern up nicely
Trading Strategies: Must have 1280 as support before being long for the short term to 1288
FTSE 100 CFD: 5637
TradingLevels: The number 56 is subtle but quite strong and in this case the 5600 so your ability to recognise support on this price the better. In the bigger picture the pattern from the year 2000 to now is simply working sideways with 5000 as the pivot, so the price being above 5600 delivers an overbought scenario in the bigger picture, so we will look for a top from 5650 to 5800 Elliott Wave can help refine this. I think the FSTE250 is also worth a look as it is dragging down the FSTE100 you can see this on the Daily chart, as the 250 has refused to move higher with the 100
Elliott Wave: Targets 5772 - 5800
Trading Strategies: I would be looking to sell short around the 5772 – 5800 but of course we don’t do that, we wait for the turn down and then study the retest, the retesting price and the volume to confirm the price action
SPI CFD 4113
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: While the MediumLevel ML4 | 4000 is support the market is supported, however the larger pattern is presenting a bearish pattern, this would be confirmed if the price touched the 4000 or technically 4037
Elliott Wave: The move down from 4200 to 4100 is either the wave 1 or A, this is the same for the AUDUSD
Day Trading Strategies: If the top of Group1 4130 developed support then go long you could also start scaling in off the 4120 as retested support and trade to 4150 otherwise it’s a choppy ride into 4100 (Retail Figures 11.30AM)
Technical Analysis Summary
US and European markets are edging higher and China Shanghai are still in a solid trend down and Australia is stuck in the middle moving sideways and everyone is simply wondering if Australia will break to the upside or the downside?
The Australian market has psychological support on 4000 and this is the line in the sand, I say this basic observation because the current sidewards pattern sitting on 4000 since August 2010 is looking more like a Triangle pattern which, if so, would break lower through 4000, we can see many of our stocks are also trending down, there are some that are holding up like CBA but there are not many trending up like TLS NWS there is a general pressure building on 4000, the main catalyst for any rise would have to come from the Shanghai finding a low now, any break lower will create a lower low on the ASX200.
We do feel that the US and European markets will creep and struggle higher but any upside is limited, the Xmas Retail Figures for most countries are out this week, this would have been partly the driver for employment in most countries but once this is done and dusted further upside would struggle.
Our trading strategies would be trade smaller position sizes and shorter time frame such as the Daily Robo and be on the defensive side rather than the aggressive side when using the Daily Robo, meaning all the little aspect, such as if the closing passes the opening reduce and make that 30 rather than 25%
Notes on using Elliott Wave;
It’s important to trade what you see, rather than getting opinionated and fixed on a certain market directions with Elliott Wave, sure Elliott wave can be extremely helpful but it can be dreadfully wrong, I have understood this point well and this is why I place support and resistance i.e. tradinglevels first in my trading decisions, I have been using Elliott since 1983 and I have only met a few traders that can consistently take money from the markets using only Elliott analysis. If you’re patient and wait for the right set ups using Elliott then fine, but if you’re trading a lot using Elliott you are playing the guessing game and guessing the direction every day is not an easy task. If you can combined the Elliott theory pattern recognition with the tradinglevels and read the volume, then you are on the right track in developing confidence in what you see. You need to know and understand the exact price points for the entry, stop and exit before you place a trade, the more you can remove the guessing game and the emotional factor the more consistent your trading will become.
Trading Quote
Losing is lonely, but it can be the easiest way to get to know yourself.
It builds a base in which we never have to go below again.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD Trade Balance -294M -282M
9:30am AUD AIG Construction Index 39.6
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m 5.5%
11:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.2%
5:45pm CHF Unemployment Rate 3.1% 3.0%
6:00pm EUR German Trade Balance 12.6B 12.6B
6:45pm EUR French Trade Balance -5.8B -6.2B
7:15pm CHF Retail Sales y/y 0.6% -0.2%
8:30pm EUR Sentix Investor Confidence -23.5 -24.0
10:00pm EUR German Industrial Production m/m -0.4% 0.8%
12:30am CAD Building Permits m/m -3.1% 11.9%
2:30am CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
4:40am USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
7:00am USD Consumer Credit m/m 7.2B 7.6B
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Description:
Technical Analysis
TradingLounge’s Peter Mathers Technical Analyst outlines Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies using the Tradinglevels Pattern Recognition Elliott Wave as Trading Education.
This Day Trading report is only the lead in for the actual mechanical Robo Day Trading for the Australia, US and UK Markets, Forex Elliott Wave Technical Analysis is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
Dow Jones 12,359 -0.45%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold: 1617
Oil WTI: 101.87
Copper: 342
US Dollar: 81.59
EURUSD 1.2715
AUDUSD 1.0225
Dow Jones CFD 12,365
S&P500 CFD: 1278
FTSE 100 CFD: 5637
SPI CFDs 4113
Welcome Back
It was great to have some time off and we haven’t really missed any main moves in equities, so all is well. The European dilemma will override most other events and this problem is far from resolved as we can see in the Euro, the driving factor in my uneducated opinion on the matter is simply when the EU drafts new regulations for being in their community, these new rules will have to be enforced and here in sits the problem, the enforcer will be the catalyst for strife.
Last year we turned our Robo trade management method into a Trading Strategy with reasonable results, therefor more attention will be focused on the Robo this year, with better courses and services, late last year we started the US NYSE and Nasdaq, this year we will look to add the LSE UK so we can set trade up around the clock.
Website, last year I was toying around with other website models, so in the first quarter this year, we will be adding a social platform, essentially you can talk to other traders who use the TradingLounge, there will be forums, groups, blogs, trader profiles, you can post charts videos and so on.
We have also been working on a web based charting program it’s very basic but handy with 20 minute delayed data, indicators and stock scanning I will work on it through the year..
CFD Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1617
Technical Analysis: Viewing the Daily chart there are three possible Elliott Wave counts, two for the downside and one to the upside, it’s important to understand these counts, as the market unfolds we will be eliminating the counts that don’t fit. I will point these counts out in the video.
TradingLevels, the main game as support or resistance is the MediumLevel (65) 1,650, we would not go long unless the price finds support on 1,650. The current price of 1,617 is very close to the Fibonacci number 1.618 so day traders can use the 1620 as support or resistance. The current move up from the 1520 area to the 1630 is a trend that appears complete, in that trends like correction have a being, middle and end and we can see the price pattern above the 1600 to 1630 has overlapping wave structures which is a sign of weakness, so we should naturally expect a correction of the move up, the support would be 618 retracement or around the SG2 1565|1572|1580 expect and abc zigzag correction at least. On our Elliott Wave charts this move up is a wave four retracing back the fourth wave of one lesser degree, this move up is also only Wave (a) of the correction
Strategy, would be to wait for the price to correct the current trend up, after the correction you need to work out if the 1600 becomes support or resistance. The outside triggers would be long if 1630 (SG1) becomes support or short if 1572 (SG2) becomes resistance.
The other important point with wave fours is that they can get complicated, choppy and they are not the structures to trade. Silver may be the better option to trade as you can work with TL3 30.00
Sliver Same - Add to short when 29.00 becomes the resistance then more so with a failed retest as resistance for MinorLevel mTL8/ 28.00 other numbers 27.72 and 26.50 then 25.00 the MediumLevel to cover shorts.
Oil WTI: 101.87
Technical Analysis: Above TL1 100 is a positive market.
If you were to go long, then work Group1, scale in starting at the pivot 102 as support, expect a reaction at 103 and if the prices are to go higher then expect the price to fluctuate at 103, testing and building support on 102 and eventually developing support on 103 once and if this occurs then add to the position and take profit at 105.
The 102 is the critical support and resistance above 100, if the 102 cannot find support then it’s back to 100 and 98.
The Elliott Wave count is for higher ground, however the price is testing 100 for support and this process needs to continue, but support on the 102 and more so on the 103 top of Group1 is the catalyst for using the Day Trading Robo on the long side of the energy sector
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.43+
US Nickel: Last: 8.48+
US Zinc: Last: 0.83+
US Aluminium Last: 0.83+
Copper CFD: 342
Technical Analysis: The move up from the 15 Dec, is much the same as the AUDUSD, it should be pointed out that there is an alternative count for the AUD and that is on the 4 Hr chart the current Wave 1) can also be the top of a rally an abc for a larger Wave E, we will work through this alternative count over the week ahead, but it does reflect back in Copper, so we could say while copper stays above the 330 the 72% retracement level then Copper remains positive. I will talk about this in the video so we are all on the same page, the AUD Copper and SP500 should all fit together. The LME Copper needs to stay above 7,200 (72) to remain positive which I think is unlikely, the 2011 Sept rally pattern until now is likely a wave four correctional rally retesting 8000 (TL8) I would expect 6500 as the wave five target.
Any positives coming from base metals would need to see the CRB Index develop support on 300 TL3 it is currently testing it in a series of tests, but will it hold over the month ahead is what we will be observing, the precious metals will be part of this mix.
My bias is short for Copper but this means we also need to see the AUD Alternative count unfolding down
Forex
Forex US Dollar: 81.59
Technical Analysis: TL8|80 is support, we were a little unsure of how the corrective pattern at 80 would unfold before Xmas but it’s clear to see on the hourly chart a simple abc correction on TL8. You can now work a positive pattern through Group1
We have always understood that the Dollar would push higher and the Euro lower, we can even see the EURAUD being the best trade short as these are the weakest and strongest currencies in play.
Any way the Dollar up and the Euro down is the main trend ahead. This also should make equities traders be aware of the divergence between the Euro and SP500 as these guys normally travel together, the SP hasn’t been as strong as the Dow… we should therefor soon see downside for the SP500 as the Euro moves lower.
If the SP500 is going to roll over and follow the Euro, then the AUDUSD will also roll over lower, the AUD has much the same wave pattern as Copper and copper/ base metals should also line up with precious metals.
Forex EURUSD 1.2715
TradingLevels:
The EURAUD is and has been the better short.
The EURUSD has support at 1.25 from the Weekly trendline that said the Euro is in a large wave three down and old lows at 1.20 should be reached. In the bigger picture it is worth noting that the Euro is entering Minor Group1 1.30|1.20|1.10 to me this means the Euro will reach parity with the Dollar.
Elliott Wave: in the Wave 3 down into the 1.25 weekly trend line is about right
Trading Strategies: Scalpers; On the Open work the 1,2720 (72) be on the right side of this number, add on the failed retest of 1.27. you can see the Elliott Wave count on the 1 hour chart. The 1,2650 is a target low
Weekly Robo traders hold short.
Forex AUDUSD 1.0225
TradingLevels: The MajorLevel TL1|1.00 as support, with the current price working through Group1 101|102|103 if the 103 becomes the support then trade to 105, you may be able to buy lower around 101 at the end of Wave c, see the Elliott wave 1 hour chart, but after the ABC correction the safer place to buy is the pivot 102 scaling in and adding if and when 103 develops as support
Elliott Wave: You can see the Elliott Wave count on the AUD charts, however I need to point out that the last high around 104 can also be the end of an abc correction that started Nov 2011 at 97. So we will be talking about the current pattern about to unfold at 103, I will talk about this in the video so you understand both counts and at what point on is eliminated. Essentially the ABC pattern on the hourly chart, can also be 1,2,3… down?
Trading Strategies: Keep your trading within the sublevels until we work out the larger trend
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,365
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Support 12,272 and 12,300 resistance 12,500 the 12,400 resistance should be broken looking at the corrective price pattern above 12,300. The main development would be 12500 as support, this would put the price at 12,650
Elliott Wave: Once again we search for the top of Wave (2) and the current move up in Jan is subdividing into the later stages, we should stay diligent for the reversal
Trading Strategies: Continue to hold long above 12,272 SG2
S&P500 CFD: 1278
TradingLevels: The price is subgroup2 SG2 12651272|1280 and the price is above 1272 support this is a positive development, the next step if going long is waiting for retested support on 1280
Elliott Wave: The 1 hour SP chart states the pattern up nicely
Trading Strategies: Must have 1280 as support before being long for the short term to 1288
FTSE 100 CFD: 5637
TradingLevels: The number 56 is subtle but quite strong and in this case the 5600 so your ability to recognise support on this price the better. In the bigger picture the pattern from the year 2000 to now is simply working sideways with 5000 as the pivot, so the price being above 5600 delivers an overbought scenario in the bigger picture, so we will look for a top from 5650 to 5800 Elliott Wave can help refine this. I think the FSTE250 is also worth a look as it is dragging down the FSTE100 you can see this on the Daily chart, as the 250 has refused to move higher with the 100
Elliott Wave: Targets 5772 - 5800
Trading Strategies: I would be looking to sell short around the 5772 – 5800 but of course we don’t do that, we wait for the turn down and then study the retest, the retesting price and the volume to confirm the price action
SPI CFD 4113
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: While the MediumLevel ML4 | 4000 is support the market is supported, however the larger pattern is presenting a bearish pattern, this would be confirmed if the price touched the 4000 or technically 4037
Elliott Wave: The move down from 4200 to 4100 is either the wave 1 or A, this is the same for the AUDUSD
Day Trading Strategies: If the top of Group1 4130 developed support then go long you could also start scaling in off the 4120 as retested support and trade to 4150 otherwise it’s a choppy ride into 4100 (Retail Figures 11.30AM)
Technical Analysis Summary
US and European markets are edging higher and China Shanghai are still in a solid trend down and Australia is stuck in the middle moving sideways and everyone is simply wondering if Australia will break to the upside or the downside?
The Australian market has psychological support on 4000 and this is the line in the sand, I say this basic observation because the current sidewards pattern sitting on 4000 since August 2010 is looking more like a Triangle pattern which, if so, would break lower through 4000, we can see many of our stocks are also trending down, there are some that are holding up like CBA but there are not many trending up like TLS NWS there is a general pressure building on 4000, the main catalyst for any rise would have to come from the Shanghai finding a low now, any break lower will create a lower low on the ASX200.
We do feel that the US and European markets will creep and struggle higher but any upside is limited, the Xmas Retail Figures for most countries are out this week, this would have been partly the driver for employment in most countries but once this is done and dusted further upside would struggle.
Our trading strategies would be trade smaller position sizes and shorter time frame such as the Daily Robo and be on the defensive side rather than the aggressive side when using the Daily Robo, meaning all the little aspect, such as if the closing passes the opening reduce and make that 30 rather than 25%
Notes on using Elliott Wave;
It’s important to trade what you see, rather than getting opinionated and fixed on a certain market directions with Elliott Wave, sure Elliott wave can be extremely helpful but it can be dreadfully wrong, I have understood this point well and this is why I place support and resistance i.e. tradinglevels first in my trading decisions, I have been using Elliott since 1983 and I have only met a few traders that can consistently take money from the markets using only Elliott analysis. If you’re patient and wait for the right set ups using Elliott then fine, but if you’re trading a lot using Elliott you are playing the guessing game and guessing the direction every day is not an easy task. If you can combined the Elliott theory pattern recognition with the tradinglevels and read the volume, then you are on the right track in developing confidence in what you see. You need to know and understand the exact price points for the entry, stop and exit before you place a trade, the more you can remove the guessing game and the emotional factor the more consistent your trading will become.
Trading Quote
Losing is lonely, but it can be the easiest way to get to know yourself.
It builds a base in which we never have to go below again.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD Trade Balance -294M -282M
9:30am AUD AIG Construction Index 39.6
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m 5.5%
11:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.2%
5:45pm CHF Unemployment Rate 3.1% 3.0%
6:00pm EUR German Trade Balance 12.6B 12.6B
6:45pm EUR French Trade Balance -5.8B -6.2B
7:15pm CHF Retail Sales y/y 0.6% -0.2%
8:30pm EUR Sentix Investor Confidence -23.5 -24.0
10:00pm EUR German Industrial Production m/m -0.4% 0.8%
12:30am CAD Building Permits m/m -3.1% 11.9%
2:30am CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
4:40am USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
7:00am USD Consumer Credit m/m 7.2B 7.6B
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Monday, 2 January 2012
Technical Analysis
Watch video:
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Description:
TradingLounge’s Peter Mathers Technical Analyst outlines Technhical Analysis and Trading Strategies using the Tradinglevels Pattern Recognition Elliott Wave as Trading Education.
This Day Trading report is only the lead in for the actual mechanical Robo Day Trading for the Australia, US and UK Markets, Forex Elliott Wave Technical Analysis is also available for a Free Trial go to http://tradinglounge.com.au
Technical Analysis TAGS
Technical Analysis, CFD Trading Analysis, Forex Trading Analysis, Share Trading Analysis, Trading Analyst, Technical Analyst, Market Analyst, Share Trading Analyst, Forex Trading Analyst, Stock Market Analyst, TradingLounge, Peter Mathers, Technical Analysis Education, Trading Levels Analysis, TradingLevels
News
Stocks slid, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lower for a third day, Treasuries rose and the euro weakened as Greece tangled with European officials over terms of a second rescue package. Italy’s bonds slid and costs to insure Portugal’s debt rose to a record.
Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1732
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Subgroup1 (SG1) 1710|1720|1730 if the price finds support on top of SG1 1730 then expect the price at 1750, if the 1720 (pivot) becomes resistance expect the price back at 1700
Elliott Wave: The bullish count, a pullback to 1700 then up. The bearish count, a top in place
Silver: Same as gold, with the bullish and bearish count, this is also the same for US Indices, we expected a selloff we can’t confirm if the selloff is a change in trend or a correction
Oil WTI: 99.10
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Long with a break above 101 and short under 98.
Elliott Wave: The pattern we have been tracking is still working its self into a corner and will make a break this week either way. The last move down from 101 to the current low can be an abc correction, so any move up of this low try and work out if it’s impulsive (five waves) but the long trade is safest above 100 and the short trade is the 98 as the retested resistance. the wave count should now line up with US Indices
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.82-
US Nickel: Last: 9.63-
US Zinc: Last: 0.95-
US Aluminium Last: 1.00+
Copper CFD: 380
Technical Analysis:
The trend up is seeing its first and expected weakness under 400 (ML4) it can come back to 372 as a wave four and wave fours can get complicated, so we should expect more than three swings, we are only seeing the first down now.
Forex
Question of the week: Will Eur and Gbp be a good sell this week, or Cad and Aud a good buy?
Hard to say right now, but it’s interesting how the price action unfolded through recent weeks and days. Both, cable and Euro could be topping out soon, as first impulsive wave (A) of II is looking for a low on dollar index. Well, on the other-hand Aussie and Cad are showing only three waves of retrace from recent extremes, so this pull-back could easily be part of a larger trend (lower USD).
US Dollar: 79.30
Technical Analysis:
As you know we have been tracking the Wave A (of an ABC correction) down, this Wave A has five smaller waves and the current bounce off 79 may be the end of the Wave A down, if this is the case then 80 will be retested. The bounce off 79.00 would be at minimum a small abc rally in three waves. Finding support on top of SG1 7930 is the key for any upside to SG2 7972|7980.
The Euro is doing the opposite and in line with SP500
EURUSD 1.3127
TradingLevels: A larger corrective patter is emerging across 130
Elliott Wave: The Wave A up is looking completed and the Wave B down is underway
Trading Strategies: Expect a bounce of 131 as it retests 132. Support on 13130 (Group1) would create short term longs to the Midpoint 13150 where the supply is, so exit, if the Midpoint becomes support then go long off that to SG2 13172.
AUDUSD 1.0580
TradingLevels: The price is working with 106. IF support is found back above 106 then you can think long and scale in above the 106 through the SG1 (10610|10620|10630) if the price can develop support on top of SG1 the 10630 then the price can lift higher
Elliott Wave: The pattern coming down across 106 can be the ABC corrective pattern but if this is the case it must now trade above 106. The Flip side is it takes out the last low around the 10530 then the price will get trapped into 105 creating a much bigger corrective pattern
Trading Strategies: Long above 106 with targets above the 107 in five waves up.
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,576
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: While the price is above 12,500 the market is supported, when a price reacts from 12,800 then 12,500 is the first support, its simply working with the Fibonacci ratio 1,2,3,5,8 so we can say if the second strongest number 5 cannot support the price then its back to 3 and if its back to 3 then it’s a part of Group1 and a part of the closest largest number and that is 12,000 but as far as the levels are concerned that would be the MediumLevel 11,500 (ML15) so the 12500 is stopping the price dropping to 11,500
Elliott Wave: The move down appears in nature to be impulsive, with its sharp move and thus creating the top.
But also technically it can still be a corrective move too and ABC pullback. That is why I mentioned the support at 12500 last time, the 12500 as resistance certainly puts a dent into the trend up.
Trading Strategies: Day Trading - Long if 12,600 finds support.
S&P500 CFD: 1307
TradingLevels: Larger pattern unfolding into 1300
Elliott Wave: We have to follow two wave counts, one is a top is in place and the market will roll over down and the other is a larger corrective pattern across 1300 (and below) in three waves ABC and then move up making new highs
Trading Strategies: Its normal to see buyers sitting on 1300 and creating a bounce that will hit supply/sellers in the 1310 – 1320 range with the sellers probably wining and seeing the price back and below 1300, the 1290 is the 38.2% retracement level so expect the price to bounce around between the 1290 and the 1300, the price also test lower to 1280 the first level of SG2
FTSE 100 CFD: 5670
TradingLevels: 5650 (65) support resistance 5700 then 5720 supply
Elliott Wave: The FSTE has displayed the most weakness in the move down, as its move the furthest, passing the wave four of one lesser degree at 5700. So there is more evidence here for a top being in place and therefore we should follow a more bearish count, the impulse wave . but technically counting the structure down it can be and abc, with the current low in at 5650, we just have to wait and see for more development, but this is a good reflection of the Euro talks on debt.
Trading Strategies: Expect a retest of 5700 from 5650. IF the 5700 cannot find support then look for a short there, if support is found then scale in long
DAX CFD: 6462
Technical Analysis: Same, Give the price a few sessions at 6500 MediumLevel, lets simply see if this level develops support or as resistance. The real support is still at 6400, so above this the Dax is positive below negative
SPI CFD 4264
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: 4300 is the top of MinorGroup1, the resistance. The price has reached 4300 the other day and its normal for it to react, the reaction has found support at the first volume demand level at 4230 SG1 and will now retest supply starting at SG2 4265|4272|4280 it’s the 4272 as support of resistance that a trader can work from
Elliott Wave: Can take the price to 4500, that’s if the US Indices are only correcting a small correction and the Dow stays above 12500 and the Shanghai builds above the 2300 (group1) support. And of course the price needs to find support on the 4300 to create a long trade to 4500 where it is then expected to roll over down
Day Trading: Use 4272 or the Midpoint 4250 as support or resistance, be on the right side of these sublevels. Basically you have to work SG2 4265|4272|4280 with 4272 being the important pivot as support or resistance, being long with 4272 as support is much safer than being long under it.
Summary
US Indices The moves are governed by the European mess.
I don’t know if the current moves down are just bullish corrective or the start of the bear market for the US and Euro zone. The patterns are still too small to offer evidence. The 12500 on the Dow is the short term support floor. The SP500 will see at least a corrective pattern, but the question is will the price end up having the 1300 as support or resistance, this can take all week to develop, its simply a guessing game as I can see both counts bullish and bearish, but cannot give a clear answer, so we simply should wait until we are sure and then trade that direction.
Europe It appears the officials are debating the bond debt yields, this would be expected negations as the ECB would only want to give closer to 3 where the buyers would want closer to 4, the outcome of this discussion should see a bounce, but as you know the Greece problem is only 2.5% of the Euro output, but a blue print for Portugal, Spain, Italy..
The pattern across the MediumLevel 6500 for the Dax is unfolding and as long as it stays above the support 6400 then the Dax is positive. Their neighbours the Britt’s, don’t seem as confident as the FSTE traded sharply lower than other markets presenting a more bearish impulse wave.
China The Shanghai, 2300 as support is all we need to know about, the more this can develop as support the more positive Asia in general is.
Australia The Shanghai support 2300 is critical and the 4300 as support for the ASX200 is the next positive step to watch for, IF this is found then the 4500 is the target. The base metals that have been part of the driver has met supply just under 400 and is having its correction, I think its just a correction and that the price will push higher, this can be seen in the US BHP at 80 (TL8) so Australia can expect corrective consolidations before another push higher. I did place out short trades in the ASX Robo to hedge this corrective situation
Trading Quote
Most of the time common stocks are subject to irrational and excessive price fluctuations in both directions as the consequence of the ingrained tendency of most people to speculate or gamble... to give way to hope, fear and greed. Benjamin Graham
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
8:45am NZD Building Consents m/m -6.4%
10:15am JPY Manufacturing PMI 50.2
10:30am JPY Household Spending y/y -0.1% -3.2%
10:30am JPY Unemployment Rate 4.5% 4.5%
10:50am JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m 2.6% -2.7%
11:01am GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -31 -33
11:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 2
11:30am AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.4% 0.3%
|4:00pm JPY Housing Starts y/y -1.4% -0.3%
6:00pm CHF UBS Consumption Indicator 0.81
6:00pm EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.9% -1.0%
6:45pm EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.3% -0.1%
7:55pm EUR German Unemployment Change -8K -22K
8:00pm EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 8.6% 8.6%
8:30pm GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 1.2B 1.0B
8:30pm GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.3% -0.6%
8:30pm GBP Mortgage Approvals 53K 53K
9:00pm EUR Unemployment Rate 10.4% 10.3%
12:30am CAD GDP m/m 0.2% 0.0%
12:30am CAD RMPI m/m 0.2% 3.8%
12:30am CAD IPPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
12:30am USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.4% 0.3%
1:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y -3.2% -3.4%
1:45am USD Chicago PMI 63.2 62.5
2:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence 68.4 64.5
Australian Corporate Calendar
Panoramic Resources Limited (PAN.AU) December Quarterly Report
Cudeco Limited (CDU.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Bathurst Resources Limited (BTU.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Dart Energy Limited (DEGEF) Quarterly Activities Report
Rex Minerals Limited (RXM.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Integra Mining Limited (IGR.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Ramelius Resources Limited December Quarterly Activities Report
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
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Description:
TradingLounge’s Peter Mathers Technical Analyst outlines Technhical Analysis and Trading Strategies using the Tradinglevels Pattern Recognition Elliott Wave as Trading Education.
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Technical Analysis TAGS
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News
Stocks slid, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lower for a third day, Treasuries rose and the euro weakened as Greece tangled with European officials over terms of a second rescue package. Italy’s bonds slid and costs to insure Portugal’s debt rose to a record.
Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1732
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Subgroup1 (SG1) 1710|1720|1730 if the price finds support on top of SG1 1730 then expect the price at 1750, if the 1720 (pivot) becomes resistance expect the price back at 1700
Elliott Wave: The bullish count, a pullback to 1700 then up. The bearish count, a top in place
Silver: Same as gold, with the bullish and bearish count, this is also the same for US Indices, we expected a selloff we can’t confirm if the selloff is a change in trend or a correction
Oil WTI: 99.10
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Long with a break above 101 and short under 98.
Elliott Wave: The pattern we have been tracking is still working its self into a corner and will make a break this week either way. The last move down from 101 to the current low can be an abc correction, so any move up of this low try and work out if it’s impulsive (five waves) but the long trade is safest above 100 and the short trade is the 98 as the retested resistance. the wave count should now line up with US Indices
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.82-
US Nickel: Last: 9.63-
US Zinc: Last: 0.95-
US Aluminium Last: 1.00+
Copper CFD: 380
Technical Analysis:
The trend up is seeing its first and expected weakness under 400 (ML4) it can come back to 372 as a wave four and wave fours can get complicated, so we should expect more than three swings, we are only seeing the first down now.
Forex
Question of the week: Will Eur and Gbp be a good sell this week, or Cad and Aud a good buy?
Hard to say right now, but it’s interesting how the price action unfolded through recent weeks and days. Both, cable and Euro could be topping out soon, as first impulsive wave (A) of II is looking for a low on dollar index. Well, on the other-hand Aussie and Cad are showing only three waves of retrace from recent extremes, so this pull-back could easily be part of a larger trend (lower USD).
US Dollar: 79.30
Technical Analysis:
As you know we have been tracking the Wave A (of an ABC correction) down, this Wave A has five smaller waves and the current bounce off 79 may be the end of the Wave A down, if this is the case then 80 will be retested. The bounce off 79.00 would be at minimum a small abc rally in three waves. Finding support on top of SG1 7930 is the key for any upside to SG2 7972|7980.
The Euro is doing the opposite and in line with SP500
EURUSD 1.3127
TradingLevels: A larger corrective patter is emerging across 130
Elliott Wave: The Wave A up is looking completed and the Wave B down is underway
Trading Strategies: Expect a bounce of 131 as it retests 132. Support on 13130 (Group1) would create short term longs to the Midpoint 13150 where the supply is, so exit, if the Midpoint becomes support then go long off that to SG2 13172.
AUDUSD 1.0580
TradingLevels: The price is working with 106. IF support is found back above 106 then you can think long and scale in above the 106 through the SG1 (10610|10620|10630) if the price can develop support on top of SG1 the 10630 then the price can lift higher
Elliott Wave: The pattern coming down across 106 can be the ABC corrective pattern but if this is the case it must now trade above 106. The Flip side is it takes out the last low around the 10530 then the price will get trapped into 105 creating a much bigger corrective pattern
Trading Strategies: Long above 106 with targets above the 107 in five waves up.
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,576
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: While the price is above 12,500 the market is supported, when a price reacts from 12,800 then 12,500 is the first support, its simply working with the Fibonacci ratio 1,2,3,5,8 so we can say if the second strongest number 5 cannot support the price then its back to 3 and if its back to 3 then it’s a part of Group1 and a part of the closest largest number and that is 12,000 but as far as the levels are concerned that would be the MediumLevel 11,500 (ML15) so the 12500 is stopping the price dropping to 11,500
Elliott Wave: The move down appears in nature to be impulsive, with its sharp move and thus creating the top.
But also technically it can still be a corrective move too and ABC pullback. That is why I mentioned the support at 12500 last time, the 12500 as resistance certainly puts a dent into the trend up.
Trading Strategies: Day Trading - Long if 12,600 finds support.
S&P500 CFD: 1307
TradingLevels: Larger pattern unfolding into 1300
Elliott Wave: We have to follow two wave counts, one is a top is in place and the market will roll over down and the other is a larger corrective pattern across 1300 (and below) in three waves ABC and then move up making new highs
Trading Strategies: Its normal to see buyers sitting on 1300 and creating a bounce that will hit supply/sellers in the 1310 – 1320 range with the sellers probably wining and seeing the price back and below 1300, the 1290 is the 38.2% retracement level so expect the price to bounce around between the 1290 and the 1300, the price also test lower to 1280 the first level of SG2
FTSE 100 CFD: 5670
TradingLevels: 5650 (65) support resistance 5700 then 5720 supply
Elliott Wave: The FSTE has displayed the most weakness in the move down, as its move the furthest, passing the wave four of one lesser degree at 5700. So there is more evidence here for a top being in place and therefore we should follow a more bearish count, the impulse wave . but technically counting the structure down it can be and abc, with the current low in at 5650, we just have to wait and see for more development, but this is a good reflection of the Euro talks on debt.
Trading Strategies: Expect a retest of 5700 from 5650. IF the 5700 cannot find support then look for a short there, if support is found then scale in long
DAX CFD: 6462
Technical Analysis: Same, Give the price a few sessions at 6500 MediumLevel, lets simply see if this level develops support or as resistance. The real support is still at 6400, so above this the Dax is positive below negative
SPI CFD 4264
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: 4300 is the top of MinorGroup1, the resistance. The price has reached 4300 the other day and its normal for it to react, the reaction has found support at the first volume demand level at 4230 SG1 and will now retest supply starting at SG2 4265|4272|4280 it’s the 4272 as support of resistance that a trader can work from
Elliott Wave: Can take the price to 4500, that’s if the US Indices are only correcting a small correction and the Dow stays above 12500 and the Shanghai builds above the 2300 (group1) support. And of course the price needs to find support on the 4300 to create a long trade to 4500 where it is then expected to roll over down
Day Trading: Use 4272 or the Midpoint 4250 as support or resistance, be on the right side of these sublevels. Basically you have to work SG2 4265|4272|4280 with 4272 being the important pivot as support or resistance, being long with 4272 as support is much safer than being long under it.
Summary
US Indices The moves are governed by the European mess.
I don’t know if the current moves down are just bullish corrective or the start of the bear market for the US and Euro zone. The patterns are still too small to offer evidence. The 12500 on the Dow is the short term support floor. The SP500 will see at least a corrective pattern, but the question is will the price end up having the 1300 as support or resistance, this can take all week to develop, its simply a guessing game as I can see both counts bullish and bearish, but cannot give a clear answer, so we simply should wait until we are sure and then trade that direction.
Europe It appears the officials are debating the bond debt yields, this would be expected negations as the ECB would only want to give closer to 3 where the buyers would want closer to 4, the outcome of this discussion should see a bounce, but as you know the Greece problem is only 2.5% of the Euro output, but a blue print for Portugal, Spain, Italy..
The pattern across the MediumLevel 6500 for the Dax is unfolding and as long as it stays above the support 6400 then the Dax is positive. Their neighbours the Britt’s, don’t seem as confident as the FSTE traded sharply lower than other markets presenting a more bearish impulse wave.
China The Shanghai, 2300 as support is all we need to know about, the more this can develop as support the more positive Asia in general is.
Australia The Shanghai support 2300 is critical and the 4300 as support for the ASX200 is the next positive step to watch for, IF this is found then the 4500 is the target. The base metals that have been part of the driver has met supply just under 400 and is having its correction, I think its just a correction and that the price will push higher, this can be seen in the US BHP at 80 (TL8) so Australia can expect corrective consolidations before another push higher. I did place out short trades in the ASX Robo to hedge this corrective situation
Trading Quote
Most of the time common stocks are subject to irrational and excessive price fluctuations in both directions as the consequence of the ingrained tendency of most people to speculate or gamble... to give way to hope, fear and greed. Benjamin Graham
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
8:45am NZD Building Consents m/m -6.4%
10:15am JPY Manufacturing PMI 50.2
10:30am JPY Household Spending y/y -0.1% -3.2%
10:30am JPY Unemployment Rate 4.5% 4.5%
10:50am JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m 2.6% -2.7%
11:01am GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -31 -33
11:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 2
11:30am AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.4% 0.3%
|4:00pm JPY Housing Starts y/y -1.4% -0.3%
6:00pm CHF UBS Consumption Indicator 0.81
6:00pm EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.9% -1.0%
6:45pm EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.3% -0.1%
7:55pm EUR German Unemployment Change -8K -22K
8:00pm EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 8.6% 8.6%
8:30pm GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 1.2B 1.0B
8:30pm GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.3% -0.6%
8:30pm GBP Mortgage Approvals 53K 53K
9:00pm EUR Unemployment Rate 10.4% 10.3%
12:30am CAD GDP m/m 0.2% 0.0%
12:30am CAD RMPI m/m 0.2% 3.8%
12:30am CAD IPPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
12:30am USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.4% 0.3%
1:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y -3.2% -3.4%
1:45am USD Chicago PMI 63.2 62.5
2:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence 68.4 64.5
Australian Corporate Calendar
Panoramic Resources Limited (PAN.AU) December Quarterly Report
Cudeco Limited (CDU.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Bathurst Resources Limited (BTU.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Dart Energy Limited (DEGEF) Quarterly Activities Report
Rex Minerals Limited (RXM.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Integra Mining Limited (IGR.AU) Quarterly Activities Report
Ramelius Resources Limited December Quarterly Activities Report
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
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